tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg January 4, 2021 1:00am-2:00am EST
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in ltis me. and there are over 20 exercises to choose from. get gym results at home. no expensive machines, no expensive memberships. go to aerotrainer.com to get yours now. ♪ ♪ manus: good morning from dubai. it is daybreak: europe. your top stories. a new year, the same thing. the u.k. gives the first shots of astrazeneca's vaccine today.
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dying day. china's big telcos slide after they move to delist. concerns they could be next. and georgia on everyone's mind. the senate runoffs are in full focus. this, as president trump urges state officials to find votes ahead of joe biden's certification. 2021 begins. annmarie hordern, good morning. it takes certain moments to move the political dial. is it trumps telephone call that could move to a blue sweep in georgia? annmarie.ing, i annmarie: georgia certainly on my mind this morning, everyone's mind as we start off the week, because it is such a high-stakes political game right now. andsenate seats, one state, this could determine how we see biden-harris lead in the incoming administration. manus: for markets, it could be
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the inflation narrative. we will talk more about oil. our guest puts a one in five chance of an escalation between iran, israel, and the united states. but the records are busting. annmarie: they certainly are. first trading day of 2021. s&p 500 futures are flat, but december 31 the index headset a fresh all-time high. up asia equity benchmark more than 0.6%, seventh straight day of gains. i put the nikkei in there as one to watch. comes as japanese officials are worrying about potentially having to put tokyo in a state of emergency due to increased infections. we have a weaker dollar. some of that is fueling some of these other things we are seeing, like when we look at gold, up more than 1.25%.
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then we have brent crude. you mentioned bob mcnally. $53 on brent. that is a good start for the year on opec-plus. the first of 12 meetings as they will be having one every month. bob mcnally had a good point. he said, right now, the price is the one helping the hawks going into this meeting. crown been mum from the prince in terms of what they have been looking for. $34,000,d this weekend but still hovering around $33,000. it is astonishing what is going on with the price of bitcoin. manus: absolutely. all the millennials at home for new year's eve. global coronavirus infections have climbed, however. these numbers are fairly damming. 85 million were the daily cases in the u.s., soaring to a record of nearly 300,000 after the holiday period. this as infections surged.
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ofhony fauci said the pace the vaccine rollout is picking up after a slow start. >> we are not where we want to be. there is no doubt about that. but i think we can get there if we really accelerate, get some momentum going, and see what happens as we get into the first couple weeks of january. u.k., thehere in the first shots of astrazeneca's vaccine will be given today. that as britain races to combat a faster spreading variant of covid-19 with prime minister boris johnson saying lockdown measures will probably be needed. joining us is the ceo for quintet private bank. very good morning fo to you. worldsof two different compared to where manus is sitting in dubai. we are starting 2021 where we left off in 2020. the virus front and center. besides the virus, what other
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risks do you see going into this new year? guest: i think coming into this new year, the economies are set like a coiled spring. i think we are at risk intentionally in 2021 of having huge stimulus and possibly over stimulus. i don't think people are potentially worried about that right now. i think what we will see in the next few weeks, as you said in your piece, there will be continued concerns about the virus spreading, second and third waves and more lock downs in the short run. we are in the final leg of this and the last mile of the marathon is always the hardest. you always are member the last mile, not the previous 25 -- you always remember the last mile, not the previous 25.
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the consumers and the economies are going to open up very quickly. investors need to be ready for this. manus: happy new year. of flagged the risk overheating last week when annmarie was at home cooking biscuits. a mighty fine baker in the making. she is going on the bake-off next. the risk of overcooking as you say, or overheating with stimulus, how will that manifest itself? will that be another ramp up in stocks? will that be another ramp in inflation? how will it manifest? day,: at the end of the there is going to be very little concern about debt gilts or this huge stimulation package they are having, fiscally or monetarily. there will be so many ways we can tighten things later down the road. no one is going to be concerned about the overstimulation
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question. it may well happen and we may well be seeing the very first parts of this, which is as we go policies,nflationary it will be what reacts the quickest. we are seeing that to the global markets and asset prices are moving more aggressively than the real economy. we are seeing this v-shaped recovery in asset prices, and this will be followed by a much more aggressive v-shaped recovery in the real economy as governments decree the economies to open up more aggressively. annmarie: i just have to quickly say, that is very kind of you, manus, but i am only just learning. at the end of 2020, i was forced to get on the whole theme. you are overweight u.s. equities, but when it comes to credit, you have a preference
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for euro high yield. why this geographical difference? u.s. moving public health questions about public health policies to one side, the u.s. has an aggressive policy, for fiscal and monetary policy, and they have a very flexible economy and it will bounce back quickly. coming forward, there will be keepkey thematics to investors in focus instead. things like the technology sector and the key trends. thee move into this phase, opening up phase, we will have
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significant rotation into more cyclical companies. the cyclical at part of the investment book, you are moving from the secular to the cyclical. that is going to be very good for the smaller camp companies -- smaller cap companies. you will see it in smaller caps and you will see the high-yield companies doing well going forward. where is that biggest play to be had? is that the likes of russell in the united states? or are you attracted maybe to the value proposition of the u.k. or europe, which is a highly rich, growing ground for value? value is a very good question. definitely parts of cyclical trade that has a long
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way still to come, and there is a lot of opportunity there. that cyclical trade, especially where you have that overlap between those longer teams give maddox we talked about -- thematics we talked about, more of the consumer technology plays, that definitely will come to the fore in the coming weeks and months. the value question is a little bit different. you need to define what you mean by the value trade. what we think from an investor's perspective today, we talk about rather than the value trade, we talk about the opening up trade, which is there are companies and industries being forced to close down or incubate through this period by decree, by the governments, by closing down the economies, who have had that support in are ready to open up again. that is the real value trade or
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what we call the opening up trade. those are relatively clear trades. those will be the ones that will be the service sectors, the transports, the tourism. viable. still pick up thell conversation in just a moment. cio foreet, group quintet. we will see a picture of the biscuits later on. they are gluten-free, dairy free, so you get everything on this show, bill. she may make biscuits for all of us. bill street our guest host this morning, and annmarie hordern, the baker in the making. india regulators have approved astrazeneca's vaccine. manufactured and has been approved for restricted use as
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it is yet to complete his its phase 3 trials. bloomberg spoke exclusively to the company's founder on the logistical challenges ahead. it is a traditional technology. baby.like a newborn sensitivities. further see mutations, like we are seeing with this new variance in the u.k., would this particular treatment be able to deal with that? withere is a high chance the variant. have no data yet, but we are in the process. >> let's talk a little bit about efficacy of the vaccine here as
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well. where are you with it in terms of that, and what are you aiming for ultimately? one has to have efficacy to get approval. two,inly in phase one and .e get to almost 100% where we seat 98.5%. that is very significant. coming up on the program, control of the senate. that is what hinges on the outcome of the runoff in georgia. we will give you the latest on that, and trump's attempt to find votes in the state. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
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annmarie: good morning. 6:15 in the city of london. i'm annmarie hordern with manus cranny. we start up the year with the state of biden's agenda resting on the runoffs in georgia. they will decide what party controls the senate and will on hisdecisive influence ability to push his agenda forward. what is the state of play at the moment? guest: a lot of things up in the air. we have the runoffs on tuesday. one of the gop senators, david purdue, has been quarantining because he had a close contact who came down with covid. the president is supposed to be there on monday for a rally in support of the republican candidates. but at the same time, the
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president is continuing attacks on georgia officials, including the governor and secretary of state, for not going along with his attempts to overthrow the election to overturn the election. manus: we had a call of president trump urging the georgia secretary of state to find 11,780 votes for him. let's take a listen. >> all i want to do is this. 11,780want to find votes, which is one more than we have, because we won the state. to get auce, i want sense of the reaction to this. the georgiay into election? a double probability after the tweet last week about
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the $2000 stimulus check. we seem to have momentarily lost bruce. are you there? guest: yes, i'm sorry. i couldn't hear you. manus: no problem. annmarie: very 2020. manus: very 2020. do you think the sound of the president calling for votes to be found for him could have an impact? how will it play out? could decrease republican turnout because republican voters in georgia think the elections are rigged, it is a fraud and nothing works. it could create big disincentives for them to show up at the polls.
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trump's injection of himself into the race could motivate a lot of democratic voters because as we have seen, one of the best ways to get democrats to go out and vote is to remind them about how much they dislike president trump. it could turn out badly for them, for the republicans, but on the other hand, georgia traditionally is a republican state and the republican candidates did win more votes in the initial round. they have several things on their side. manus: think is a much. roos einhorn on the latest -- bruce einhorn on the latest. bill street is still with us. here we are coming to a close. we could have a blue sweep on our hands. is a blue sweep, what would that do for 2021 for you? u.s. elections is the gift that doesn't stop giving,
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but hopefully we will see the back of it in the next couple weeks. if we have a blue sweep, which was originally predicted coming allowsis, i think this the biden administration to do more beyond they can do with the traditional executive orders. at the end of the day, next year at the next couple years, or the first term of this presidency will be defined by the fiscal policy. we know the monetary policy is opened as much as it could be and how the biden administration builds the economy back in a better way, in a democratic way, is going to be key. how he builds back infrastructure, how he builds back a better economy, which is at the heart of a lot of their policies, will be able to be applied more smoothly than if it
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was a disjointed outcome. annmarie: going through your notes, you closed out your bowl position. we -- your bull position. we do have a weaker dollar in everyone is arguing that the momentum has eroded fiat currencies. if you see a blue sweep, where do you put your money? if you are not going to put into gold, what do you see as a hedge against the u.s. dollar? continueld is going to to play an important part in your portfolios. we have significant overweights in gold. reduce some of that overweight. ofd will be a very key part the portfolio. it will add correlation benefits, it will add diversification, especially if cash is negative in real terms.
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significant industrial use as well. when we talk about gold, we talk about gold and the dollar, and we talk about gold as portfolio benefits and diversification. it has heavy demands in semiconductors in the technology industry as well. manus: very quickly, have you or will you take a position in bitcoin this year? if so, where could it get to? bitcoin is a huge momentum trade. we will not be taking any position in the coming months. big storyere is a about digital currencies that will emerge this year, and that is different from cryptocurrencies. i think it is a big risk, this momentum, in that bitcoin can unravel. i think their currencies will get more heavily regulated in 2021 as well.
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part of it, part of the momentum. annmarie: thanks so much for joining us. bill street, group cio or quintet private bank. coming up, chinese oil majors maybe next for delisting in the u.s.. nation'ss after the telecoms giant was booted out. this is bloomberg. ♪ are you frustrated with your weight and health? it's time for aerotrainer, a more effective total body fitness solution. (announcer) aerotrainer's ergodynamic design and four patented air chambers create maximum muscle activation for better results in less time, all while maintaining safe, correct form and allows for over 20 exercises. do the aerotrainer super crunch. the pre-stretch works your abs even harder, engaging the entire core. then it's the back extension, super rock, and lower back traction stretch
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for the new york stock exchange after it said last week it would remove the asian nation's three biggest telecom companies. juliette saly is standing by. talk us through the reaction and the ramifications. happy new year. juliette: happy new year to you, manus and annmarie. we are seeing a knee-jerk reaction. we are seeing telecoms hit hard with china mobile falling to its lowest level since june 2006 on the delisting news. it will be suspended from trade in new york thursday to monday while the process of delisting that has already started. they are going through the oil majors as well, in fears that they will be the next target. china's largest offshore oil producer could be the most at risk as it is on the pentagon list of companies owned by the chinese military.
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in terms of how significant it is overall, have a look at my chart which shows you volumes in hong kong versus adr's in new york. trading volumes of the adr's are quite thin. an analyst says the bottom line is the impact will be very limited. the biggest downside for investors is the lack of transparency from filings. is a blowed that it to sentiment, saying it is a reason to dump some of these telecos. fromhile, we will hear ftse russell today about whether it plans to remove more chinese stocks from its indexes as well. annmarie: certainly everyone is going to be watching as we kick off the new year. juliette saly, thank you for that round up. coming up, it is official, the u.k. is going it alone after its departure from the eu was sealed with the new year.
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♪ ♪ annmarie: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters in the city of london. i'm annmarie hordern, with manus cranny live from dubai. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." recordscks hit fresh despite coronavirus infections climbing above 85 million. the u.k. gives the first shots of astrazeneca's vaccine today. and a down day. afters three telcos slide
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the move to delist them. the oil majors also dropped on concerns they could be next. georgia on everyone's mind. the u.s. prepares for the high-stakes senate runoff. this, as president trump urged the state officials to find votes and flip it to him ahead of joe biden's certification. manus, very good morning to you. just gone 6:30 a.m. in the city of london. our first trading day of 2021, and i was thinking while i was baking this week, as you keep mentioning, it was this time last year, and i told you -- had i told you there would be a global pandemic that would wreak havoc, equities would be at all-time highs, you just wouldn't believe me. yet here we are today, all-time highs in the equity market. we are starting off 2021 with the same problems we endured throughout the entire 2020. manus: the election continues
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on. we wait to see the result of georgia. valuations, are they stretched? is it correct to draw parallels to 1999? three times valuations on the s&p 500. the world is a different place. $17 trillion of qe. expanding at a velocity rate. if you had told me last year that you would bake biscuits for christmas, i would eat my hand. annmarie: [laughter] i am not usually a baker, but this is what happened. 2020 flipped everybody's lives upside down. the other thing we have, manus, today, besides georgia and politics, is an opec meeting. usually we would be at an opec meeting. this year, we have an opec meeting once everything a month, so 12 to look forward to. annmarie: absolute -- manus: absolutely. we will go through this.
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the justification for novak saying we have stability is we are in that bout with brent over $52 this morning. for him, that justifies the stability argument. will the hawks have this meeting? the s&p 500 asian equities are up. this morningapan coming back to the 50 level on the pmi. will tokyo go into an emergency situation? the japanese government holding back from that. s&p futures back in the green on day one of futures trading in the asian middle east session. that.r minds will decide will it be a differentiated dollar as hsbc says? there is a little more valuation to work off of the dollar. gold has been up. is that your haven? is that your defense?
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the possibility of inflation coming on the other side of the political narrative in the united states of america. bitcoin up another 14%. it rocks on, doesn't it? it really keeps going. will it ever end? let's talk about the dawning of 2021. it is the brexit transition period. it has come to an end. britain and the eu have finalized their divorce with a hard fought deal. a new era now beckons for the u.k. and you relations -- and eu relations, but there are many unknowns. maria tadeo is standing by. -u.k. relationships to be discussed. as we talk about the new year and the new trade arrangement, what changes? maria: happy new year, manus. i would say everything changes. we know there are no tariffs, but the rest will change, and that means the regulation, the
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paperwork, the checks, the price pointing, all of this will very much change with the new arrangements that have been put out. what i would note is it is too early to see ththe fallout. there were no issues at the ports when you look at export activity. it did seem to go relatively smoothly. there were a couple incidents, but nothing major. this week is the big test and the big week because we are going back from christmas and holidays and we are potentially going to see whether or not there is disruption. for businesses, it means they are dealing with more paperwork, dealing with more red tape, and two different kinds of regulation. that is the point of brexit, to diverge away from the eu standards. we are already seeing that with the vaccine. when you look at the vaccines being approved, the pace at which they are being approved, it is very different from the european union. there is money that goes from industry to finance to climate
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when it comes to emission restrictions. maria tadeo, thank you for joining us. the eu has left with the deal, but for the world's biggest banks and money managers, many questions remain unanswered. what does the future hold for the city of london now that the continent's financial hub is outside the eu? joining us is our u.k. finance reporter. a very good morning to you. can you map us through the timeline of trying to get another part of this deal? it actually focuses on services, which are so critical to the u.k. economy. reporter: the services and financial services specifically were not a major part of the deal at the end of last year. so it leaves a big question, a big unknown about exactly how the new relationship will work for a massive part of the u.k. economy.
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the two sides, the eu and the u.k., have pledged, made a joint declaration to agree on a memorandum of understanding about how to cooperate in terms of regulations by the end of march. but what it will be able to achieve is unknown. if you look back a year ago, they made a similar pledge to make best efforts to agree on terms. in june 2020, that came and went. i think it is a big unknown how exactly this will happen by march and how significant this memorandum will be. of thein terms competitive threat to the city of london, where is the biggest threat from on the mainland of europe, and is it a substantial threat? reporter: i think there is
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probably some near and medium term challenges for london. some of the things we are looking at in the short-term are what are the shifts in terms of equity trading and derivatives trading that are done in trading venues? the eu has essentially demanded and told european investors to onde in any european shares trading venues in the eu. prior to the end of last year, they were doing a lot of that trading in london. in the question will be, coming hours, days, certainly months, how much trading volume essentially moves out of london because of those demands? which is a similar to dynamic with regard to derivatives, but those are medium-term trading questions.
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term, slightly longer american banks that have used london as a hub for decades were already moving billions, in some cases hundreds of billions of toos in assets from london frankfurt and elsewhere, paris, in the eu. ofis going to be a question how much more moves and how many more people's jobs also move? so far, it has been far short of the earliest suggestions, going back years. but nonetheless, several thousand jobs have clearly moved and european regulators are demanding that more and more business and more and more jobs are done locally. manus: indeed. thank you very much. ofla on the prospect london's future.
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it is the first trading day of 2021. urgedent donald trump your jet election officials to find thousands of votes to flip the state in his favor. pressedminute call, he fellow republicans to take action. it is the president's latest effort to overturn the election days before congress is set to certify results. no comment from the white house or the term campaign. has been reelected speaker of the house of representatives, the only woman to hold the speaker's gavel. she was selected with 216 votes, just two more than the majority she needed. ofcomes despite some wings the democratic party calling for a new generation of leadership. later judge will rule today if wikileaks founder julian assange should be extradited to face criminal charges in the u.s. the ruling comes amid
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speculation that president trump will pardon him. the lawyers say the odds are better via the u.s. legal system. assange has been in custody in london for almost a decade. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. annmarie, good morning. annmarie: good morning, manus. it is a balancing act. opec-plus faces a tough task and it needs today, depending how much supply can be put in the market without derailing recovery. brent at 53 bucks this morning. this is bloomberg. ♪
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"bloomberg daybreak: europe." the oil market rising for the fourth straight day ahead of the opec-plus alliance meeting later on. the group must decide whether to asp lifting output surges hit demand. the attorney general said the outlook for the first half of 2021 is very mixed, adding that there are still many downside risks. they juggled the team leadership role for the amina division. . glad to have you with us. normally we are hunkered in a bunker in vienna. we go into this meeting. put in context how tough this is going to be to decide to increase input. good morning. opec's decision today on whether or not to increase oil output for next month is going to be a very close call. , there month's meeting
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was quite a lot of tension, but the outcome was as markets expected. they decided to increase production at the start of this month by 500,000 barrels a day. this has a lot less certainty. russia, one of the defect a leader's along with saudi arabia, they are teen to increase production, -- they are ke n to increase production. aresaudi's and algerians being more hawkish. they are looking at the second wave or what this latest wave of coronavirus infections across weakorld, oil demand being , and they seem to be much more cautious about another production boost month. annmarie: what have the saudi's actually said? we heard from the russians, saying they would like to
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increase about 500,000 barrels, but have the saudi's come out saying they are markedly one way or another? public, they haven't. they are keeping their thoughts under the radar for the moment and discussing them in private with other opec-plus members. but they have pointed out that is unsettledtlook at the moment because of the new coronavirus infections. publicly, they are still keeping their cards quite close to their chest. but it seems as if the saudis. saudis are more willing to argue for no increase than they were a few months ago. that is pretty certain. manus: before we cut off with bob mcnally, we were talking about the iran risks. he says there is a risk of redline crossing, kinetic
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strikes. not all out war, but perhaps an escalation, which is not in the price. but we have seen these skirmishes before. how much is that permeating around the market? therter: that is probably pushhing that could the oil price up at the moment. most seem to think the risk is to the downside because of the virus, but the one thing that could push it the other way is some kind of conflict in the persian gulf involving iran. that does not seem to be fully priced in by any measure. it is still seen as unlikely by the market, but there is quite a bit of nervousness among analysts, especially in the next 16 days, in the run-up to joe biden assuming the u.s.
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presidency. there are some people who think there is a chance the u.s. might try to escalate things with iran, even if it is only a small chance. if something like that did happen, that would certainly cause -- that could cause havoc in the oil markets in the short-term, at least. just wanted to ask you quickly about the existing inventory overhang. how much do you think this matters to opec today when they meet? issueer: this is a big for the group, and from what we can tell, it is one of the reasons why the joint technical committee meeting yesterday went on for so long. formalitiesse are that are over quite quickly, but yesterday's went on for a while. that was one of the things they were talking about. opec-plus is trying to decide
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what would happen to inventories over the last few months if they decide to increase production remaining at january levels into february. what opec would like to do is certainly not see inventories increase, because that would obviously put downward pressure on the oil prices. at the very least, it wants to see inventories stable, if not see them decline steadily in the coming months. annmarie: thanks so much for joining us. paul wallace will be all over the opec meeting today, the first of 12 for the year for the alliance. theng up, a new year, but same rally. cryptocurrencies surge as bitcoin tops $34,000. we discussed the digital coin's surge next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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annmarie: good morning, and happy new year. this is "daybreak: europe." let's get you up to speed on the first word news this morning. nancy pelosi has been reelected speaker of the house of representatives, the only woman to hold the speaker's gavel. policy was selected with 216 votes, just two more than the majority she needed. this comes despite some wings of the democratic party calling for a new generation of leadership. lateru.k. judge will rule today if we can leaks founder julian assange should be extradited to face criminal charges in the united states. the ruling cubs amid spike elation that president trump will pardon him. lawyers say his odds of going free through a white house order are better than the other u.s. legal system. self-imposedeen in exile in london for almost a decade. india has granted emergency approval for the coronavirus vaccine from astrazeneca and
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oxford university. there are concerns in other countries about getting access to a shot. south africa's presidency is warning africa has few options. and asterisk -- moderna and i presente astrazeneca have nothig for the content. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. two another story we are tracking this morning, bitcoin, starting the new year by heading another record, topping $34,000. the rally is spreading to other cryptocurrencies with theory him -- cerium jumping. weekend, we are already setting fresh records on bitcoin. how much more upside is there to this cryptocurrency? guest: we were just talking last week about at the time the next
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room number is 30,000. while it came faster than any of us were expecting. we are at the same place now, talking about whether this is the top. we have been having this conversation through the last month or so, and every time we say this looks like the near term top, they keep punching through those highs. the question is, if you do see a selloff from here, will it be a selloff like we saw in 2017, or will it be an arrested fall? a big difference talking to people in the industry is you have investors that were not there in 2017 to buy on the dip. if we do see a drop, the real interesting thing will be if we see any buying on the dip to arrest that collapse before it accelerates like it did four years ago. manus: it is interesting. we just had a conversation with bill street as our guest host from quintet.
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he said we are not buying any bitcoin, but the interesting narrative is bitcoin and crypto. it is more about the respectability of crypto, of which bitcoin is a major subset, and that is the bigger narrative for 2021. guest: and you pointed out ether had a 30% jump over the weekend. it is over $1000 at the moment. that is the second largest cryptocurrency, and the cheap rival to bitcoin. the interesting thing with that ther is used in technologies, as opposed to bitcoin, which is seen as a speculative investment or an inflation hedge. things like ether have use cases for them. there is an argument that when you're looking at the development of centralized finance, there is more of a use for some of these other points.
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that is what we are seeing. we have had a huge rally in bitcoin, now these other coins led by ether are catching up. manus: our cross-ice at reporter tracking the breakout in bitcoin. as you have this dollar debasement, the debasement of currencies, is that a justifiable reason to have bitcoin in your portfolio? or is bitcoin going to snap at the heels of gold? if you look at the relative value of bitcoin now in 2015 and 2017. annmarie: the big question for bitcoin is what eric was saying. we keep hitting these new records, but will it continue to boom or will it e.a. bust like we saw three years ago? is weakness in the dollar fueling everything. gold piercing through 1900. we have brands on the rise. all the commodities are doing well. it looks like it will be a rally
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[captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. visit ncicap.org] ♪ >> good morning, welcome to the markets, european open. i am anna, and matt is in berlin. >> good morning and happy new year. today the markets say new year, same stock market catalyst. stimulus and the vaccine roll-outs continue to assuage
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