caroline: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm caroline hyde. joe: i'm joe weisenthal. romaine: let's take a look at where we are standing, first trading day of the year, the s&p 500 having its worst start to the year in years. is -- joe: the question is, "what'd you miss?"

boris johnson with his lockdown announcement in the u.k., serving as a painful reminder of how far we still need to go to unlock the global economy from covid. this week, a barometer of where we stand in terms of handling the volatility of 2021, learning perhaps which industries will lead us in the country and what leadership will look like an d.c. with the biden administration hoping that the boat's in georgia will empower congress. at the same time, joe, we have this vote in the open with an onslaught of data about how the u.s. economy is faring. joe: some people will be watching political data, but the real data that we care about is this week, the onslaught of economic news to start the week. a great start to the year overall, lots of data culminating on friday with a jobs were.

thursday, initial claims with manufacturing tomorrow. durable goods, it will be a big snapshot of the economy and the expectation is that we are in a slump during the winter, during the latest virus surge in the hope is that if the rollout goes well we have a faster recovery and this will give us a real idea of where we stand right now. romaine: for some folks a real baseline on progress. joe: for more, we are joined by businessweek's peter coy. given the narrative that we are going to have a slowdown now with a real acceleration that gets us to a strong place in q2, what are we expecting in the meantime? how bad could it get and how worried are people about what the next few months are going to look like? >> let's just take the jobs

report on friday. ,hey are expecting 62,000 jobs that's the median forecast of economists surveyed by bloomberg. a real comedown. the range actually takes you below zero in some cases. that would be the most pessimistic forecast. the interesting thing about it is that average hourly earnings are expected to be lower, but in this case that's actually a good thing because what it means is that as people return to the workforce, you are seeing more of the lower wage workers coming back to pull down the average. it's all going to be kind of backward-looking, peter, and a bit messy. i was looking at the high-frequency dashboard measures they do at bloomberg intelligence and its muddy waters around the holidays with people tentatively going to restaurants more, a bit more travel than usually the case, but also consumer sentiment that was pretty awful, dropping to a four-month low.

how much are you looking at this long-term data as opposed to the numbers that we focus on? that up,you brought economics has that great dashboard, different colors of green for good, red for bad. it shows that on the positive side, mortgage application is drawn. .ame-store sales doing well electricity usage, on the downside. covid deaths, a huge negative. restaurant bookings are week. the oil market is weak. the overall picture, as joe said , is an economy that's in a low and we just don't know how long that will last. we don't know how long the low -- romaine: we don't know how willthe long will --lull last but there seems to be a belief that things will be well enough to justify the valuations out there. if we see a rebound in gdp

inwth and hiring, a rebound consumer spending, does that gel together to give us the sense that we can return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2021? peter: it's going to take longer than that. economists have the concept of potential gdp and we felt way below the potential. you would expect gdp growth to be relatively strong for several quarters. but that is just getting back towards the trendline that we were on before the pandemic. we will not be act -- back there by the end of 2021, sorry to say. romaine: peter, always great to get your perspective. coming up here, we have got a lot to look forward to. outgoing president donald trump, down in georgia. joe biden, also down in georgia. why? control of the senate will hinge

on the outcome of the runoff election down there. we will talk about that with connor sims, coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

romaine:romaine: all right, today we are focused on 2021 economically and politically. looking at the 10 year breakeven rates, we are preparing for an uptake -- uptick in virus relief in the u.s.? joe: absolutely, potentially more positive impulse on proxies, including breaking even. if we got to thousand dollar checks for a democratic senate, you never know, we could have even more pressing down on the gas pedal. it's kind of

interesting that the equity market was talking about the risk in the georgia runoff with more regulation and higher taxes. this in particular weighing on the big tech names today. joe: definitely a possibility. joining us with more insight, connor sims. we want to talk about the policy implications, pending the outcome. before that, what's the read? will we have a winner tomorrow night? the word is that they are going to be counting ballots faster than last time, so unless it's a close election there is a reasonable chance that we will know tomorrow night. as net -- the election nerds will have a good idea of where it's going. going back to the november election, there was a lot of talk about the impact that georgia had on the outcome. the idea the democrats, it was

one of the few states where the democrats had improved in the previous election cycle. i'm curious as to whether that translates into what we see at the senate level and at the congressional level below that. republican's -- connor: republican senators ran ahead of joe biden, even though was a blue state and the presidency, there was a 100,000 vote margin they had to make up and in the early voting data they have seen -- we have seen that they may have done that. we will have to see tomorrow how it goes. seen earlye have voting again being a telltale sign. from your perspective, how different do these policy outcomes look if we do or don't see a flip? connor: hard to say. the most likely things that we would get are the $2000 checks.

whether that is an additional $1400, why skimp if you win, it's on the table for sure. also the biden green new deal, i believe it was too trillion dollars in spending over four years. that's sort of the policy that on the table in 2021 that we would be most focused on. people don't talk about it as much, but with 50 seats, the best the democrats could get for two years if they sweep tomorrow , it is your view that we are only going to get the good stuff, the fun stuff, tax cuts, checks and stuff like that, is that a bitter pill to swallow in terms of the more regulatory? joe: -- connor: we have not seen either democratic candidate talk

about hired taxes and it doesn't seem like a smart move politically when the economy is doing poorly and we want to see it better. i would think that that would be a post-midterm thing if it all. caroline: do you think that some of the big tech selloff is related to this? connor: we saw it in the futures market last night, so it wouldn't surprise me. there could be people hedging the events tomorrow, but wanting protection. into november we had blue wave trades were people were betting on small caps and selling tech. it wouldn't surprise me if that was part of what happened. theine: with regards to trend here, how much can we extrapolate what's happening in georgia from the rest of the nation? connor: in what sense? romaine: with regards to voting trends? connor: georgia is unique, with

the black population and in migration changing things quickly. seems like the metro areas are somewhat different than maybe a midsized metro lichen north carolina, where they shift much faster. georgia is someone -- somewhat unique. joe: the postelection environment has been dominated by this attempt to overturn the results in the courts one way or the other. nationally or from our perspective here, it looks like chaos and doesn't seem like great news for the republicans running for the senate. what is the vibe on the ground about how much the drama going into january 6 and so forth, how is that all playing into the vote tomorrow? theor: we know that in

early data, northwest georgia, very rurally conservative, southeast georgia, the laggards in turnout. while he is coming down tonight to give a rally, the belief is that he's going to mostly focus on his grievances over what happened in november and it's not clear to what extent he will really be encouraging turnout. for so long if you work a republican voter who wanted to support trunk, the answer was to vote republican. so this is a good test to see where exactly the republican voters are right now. romaine: -- caroline: [laughter] we want to stay tuned to all things politics. we want to stay tuned to all things politics, tune into us tomorrow. joe biden is now speaking in georgia. let's go there. >> i love her.

next hear it for the united states senator, john off a -- jon ossoff. the principled, the qualified, the decent, the honorable, they mean what they say and they believe what i believe the definition of america is. it's about possibilities. unlike any other nation in the world. anything is possible. they are bending the arc of history towards justice, hope, and progress. that's not hyperbole. that's real. folks, this is it, this is it. it's a new year. tomorrow can be a new day for atlanta, for georgia, for america. first, let me start by saying thank you for electing me and kamala as president and vice president of the united states. numbers inn record

november. voices heard, votes counted. the will of the people program oil -- the people prevailed. we won three times here. a three count. we should counted as three states, winning three times. and now we need you to vote make in record numbers to your voices heard again. to change georgia. to change america again. this is not an exaggeration, georgia, the whole nation is looking to you. for real. you know it. you can't turn on any national television show without knowing about what's going on here in what you all are doing. the power, the power is literally in your hands. unlike any time in my career. one state. one state can chart the course

not just for the next four years , but for the next generation. you can make an immediate difference in your own lives. the lives of the people across this country. because the election will put an end to the block in washington and the $2000 stimulus check will go out the door immediately, the money going out to help the people who are in real trouble. think about what it will mean to your lives, putting food on the table, paying rent. we are -- romaine: we are listening to joe biden speak and you can listen to more of it online. donald trump will be speaking with in the evening candidates from his side of the aisle. this is bloomberg. ♪

caroline: today we are focused on just how 2021 has wrapped up economically and politically. we are getting a new biden administration, which, joe, means we will get a new approach to green energy. one particular stock has had a meteor at rise and a quick dump today. joe: we have seen all of these autonomous vehicle tech backs boom this year but one such company was quantum scape. the battery company, it's not likely to come out for several years, but that didn't stop traders from bidding up the company to a 40 to $50 billion market cap. then it crashed today, a little bit of a reality, but it shows just how much enthusiasm there has been in the newtek. this is a battery company, vw is the investor. we should point out

that the stock had been really on fire. talking about what people are looking forward to, it's this idea that we are going to see that if it, and much stronger pivot towards ev. joe: let's bring in collin rush. one company that didn't go down today, tesla. rallying despite everything after last year's incredible year. what are the expectations for tesla this year? what's going to happen in terms of execution, sales, etc., to keep investors happy? colin: there are a few things and need to happen. keep gross markets high. thinking about the valuation, it's about dreaming the dream over the last decade -- next

decade and continuing their ability to generate cash. the second thing is really executing on driving. things that nobody knows how to get their heads wrapped around yet, it's autonomous vehicles and what it will mean for production. margins for business models, it could go from being the turbo quiz market into software subscription markets. a bunch of self-driving vehicles out there, that's part of the valuations around tesla right now, we are looking at the impact of autonomous vehicles on the overall transportation market. interesting, that was always there long-term play. but what about the competition? from some of the luxury carmakers they are bringing things to bear, notably -- notably these other companies raising funds in the market, they are helping cut to the

roads, if that makes sense. -- colin: mosts of the cars have hit the road. we will see how that sale -- cells. .- how that sells tesla went through a steep learning curve on the manufacturing, we will see how painful it is for the others that had more experience with certain things, moving into electric powertrains. as for the start ups, there's a lot of work to do in terms of wrapping things up with experienced and capable people out there. you have customers getting excited and comfortable with putting their money on the table for what they are going to buy. romaine: one of their big advantages is that they appeared to have a leg up over there

european competitors, but i am curious about the chinese competitors. we had data from those companies, they were doing pretty well on their own. is there some concern here that automation out of china, that there could be more competition for tesla? colin: moving into supply chain expertise with different manufacturing processes, people are watching that closely. what's happening in china in terms of the transportation market and the electrification of it, there's a lot going on with those companies domestically, but we are looking at the potential for those companies to begin exporting into other markets and that is something we're going to watch closely over the next five years. from what we have seen

these cars, it's important to have local manufacturing and jobs for sale. i don't think that much is going to change. there is a risk that we could attempt, but it isn't something we are concerned about in the short term. joe: tesla has a vision for the future, but there are other visions. there's an outperform on fuel cells that are popular. hydrogen, other technologies providing clean and green futures in vehicles or elsewhere , is it possible that there could be something that technologically disrupts tesla? not necessarily a direct competitor, but a different vision or paradigm in how to distribute energy? colin: we are of the view that

there is going to be an original difference in terms of the availability and different technologies available. we certainly see hydrogen as part of the mix, particularly as you move into areas where there are parts of the supply chain with a fairly large payload and where it becomes an issue, that's something that we are watching as it goes forward. autonomy,moving into you have got eventually some on the light-duty side we are really focused on the disruptive force dominating the market over the next decade. , great tocollin rush have your voice with us. guys, it was the worst start to the trading year since 1932. joe: we need those to thousand dollars checks. what happened?

$2000 checks. romaine: what happened, you were gone? caroline: i was away for a week and now it's total lockdown in the u.k. happy new year. joe: "bloomberg technology," up next in the u.s.. this is bloomberg. ♪

emily: i am emily chang in san francisco and this is "bloomberg technology." volatility royals the market. a selloff in the u.s. as concerns mount over record new cases of covid-19 and political uncertainty as two senate seats in georgia hanging in the balance. we will have