♪ francine: winter of discontent. england goes back into a six-week lockdown. holdiden and donald trump rallies ahead of a critical runoff election that will decide which party controls the senate. the new york stock exchange starts plans to delist with little explanation. china mobile among those. good morning and welcome to bloomberg surveillance. i'm francine lacqua in london.

the markets taking stock of what's going on with the virus and taking stock with what's happening with u.s. politics. the big story not only this month but this year is what happens to the dollar. looking at markets today, european stocks are fluctuating. fluctuating asso traders are weighing the concern of rising coronavirus cases, but also the key u.s. runoff election. the dollar falling and gold holding onto monday's gains. let's get the first word news with leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: saudi arabia is reopening his land, air and sea borders with qatar. as leaders in the region are set to meet for a key summit that comes amid rising tensions in the gulf. the south korean flag tanker hours before it will ramp up nuclear enrichment. most of opec members including saudi arabia are opposing russia's proposal to hike

supply. discussions are continuing today to give the group more time to resolve its differences. it casts doubt on an increase of half a million barrels a day that the market has been projecting. france is trying to make up for the slow start to its vaccination program after criticism from doctors and opposition politicians. the health minister says several were given the jab on monday, up from from over 500 as of the first of january. he says one million doses will be available by the end of the week. the u.s. food and drug administration says any changes to the dosing or scheduling of covid-19 vaccines is premature. stephen hahn says the agency has been following discussions about reducing the dosage or the time. e period in order to vaccinate more people. he says there is not any data yet to support a change. global news 24 hours a day on

air and on bloomberg quick take, however i more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. francine: thank you. we are getting the u.k. announcing more support in the pandemic. this is after yesterday the u.k. announced a national lockdown that will last, including the closure of schools, until mid- february. if you break it down, it means businesses in retail, hospitality and leisure sectors are to receive a one-off brand worth up to 9000 pounds. if you have a business in london, central london, you still have to pay rent. we are seeing some relief for rent but not for every company. 9000, i am not sure goes a long way, but that is what we know so far. let's get to continuing with the

top story. england entering its third national lockdown as covid cases surge. >> may only leave home for limited reasons, such as the shop for essentials, to work if you absolutely cannot work from home, to exercise, to seek medical assistance such as getting a covid test or to escape domestic abuse. primary schools, secondary schools and colleges across england must move to remote provision from tomorrow. francine: boris johnson is betting on a faster rollout of vaccines to get countries out of lockdown. joining us is bloomberg senior pharmaceutical analyst sam. great to have you on the program. what can you tell us about the u.k. variant? why is it so out of control?

is the only solution a national lockdown? sam: the people who catch it -- it's easier for them to give it to somebody else, meaning the masks we have today, 50% protected, they are now 30% protected because you are being bartered potentially with more virus. -- ithe u.k. do this 00 think they should have done it too late. they should have been careful with september, october and november with gyms, etc. it is absolutely necessary to have done it while rolling out vaccines. you don't want to ramp up infection while vaccines are being rolled out because then you give the virus a chance to mutate. francine: so, what does that mean exactly? i have heard this from a number of other virologists. you need to basically administer vaccines in a case we were over the summer.

otherwise there's a bigger chance of transmission. this is what you are saying. do we know if more people are vaccinated with the first dose and then we wait to give the second dose, doesn't protect the general population more? sam: unfortunately, there, as you know, i'm not convinced that the data absolutely supports this long cap that the u.k. -- gap that the u.k.'s advisory group has put forward. it is one way of doing it. you can find some evidence that supports it, but i would be more with the fda saying use the vaccines as they are proven to work. that is three weeks for the pfizer-biontech, and between four to 10 weeks with the astrazeneca vaccine. francine: what can you tell us about the south african variant?

this is the one that really scares doctors because vaccines may not work against the. sam: again, we had the same discussion back a few weeks ago with the new u.k. variant. we need data to show whether vaccines are or are not effective against these variants or any other variant that terms up. the systems are in place in order to study that. again, it is something that absolutely has to happen in each country. need the massive analysis, something that u.k. leads the world in, married with a constant analysis of the blood from people being vaccinated to prove the vaccine is still effective. francine: ok, we will have to wait and see. sam, thank you for your insight. the bloomberg senior pharmaceutical analyst. joining us to talk about all of this and the impact on the economy, the impact on the u.k.

economy and the headlines we had about what is happening in terms of grants to help businesses. we are joined by samuel french. always great to speak to you. thank you for coming on. is the situation exactly for the u.k. economy? 9000 for a lot of businesses. is it going to be enough? certainly, the support package is on the smaller cap end of the spectrum. large companies are excited to cap capital markets rather than direct government support. if that is the context behind a flat rate grant of this scale that supports small businesses who are unlikely over the next two months to be able to operate in any way. as far as the economic impacts, we expect a recession anyway. i think it was quite clear that even without the new variant we

were going to see heightened that took place over christmas and new year. that has been accentuated with more restrictions. we are talking about a 2% contraction quarter on quarter in q4 2020 and 5% contraction in q1 2021. quite a considerable downside, but things are very much hinging on the pace of the rollout and the comments about whether we can hit that level of vaccine, 14 million by the middle of february. quite a big ask. francine: simon, coupled with brexit, what kind of forecast in terms of double dip is going to be worse than you thought it would be? a direct correlation with three weeks of lockdown in tier five and the impact directly has on gdp. simon: yeah, so, for many of your viewers trying to keep pace

with what seems weekly announcements, versus stepping back into positions of the u.k. economy. i think it is easier not to talk about the additive impacts, and large parts all of the u.k., but look about where it leads u.k. output compared to would it be without covid. the end of the third quarter, the u.k. economy was operating below its q4% 2019 levels. i think that will go down about 13% below by the end of the first quarter of 2021. quickly is really how consumer demand supported by relatively strong household balance sheets can start to recover in the second half and catch up with the rest of 2020 only 4%ded q3 2020 down. doubled has more than

below where the rest of g20 is. what actuallyall, happens to the economy longer-term? is there a danger that the government decides to go into austerity mode far too quickly? there was a brilliant piece economist, the o saying the biggest mistake would be dealing with debt to quickly. simon: it was an excellent piece. i fully associate my comments with that. if you go back over 10 years, fiscal policy and monetary policy working against each other relatively quickly at the end of the global financial crisis. i think both economists and the political cycle has evolved to a point that is not possible this time around and economically. we are going to see this is the upside of the crisis, the two big macro economic are going to work in tandem and should work

in tandem until the recovery reaches velocity. my point to what the australians have done in terms of their forward guidance on fiscal policy. they said they will not raise taxes on spending until unemployment is sustainably below 6%. i think that is the type of fiscal forward guidance we will need more of around the world if those comments from the oecb are very good, are adopted o across the g20 and wider. francine: thank you very much, simon french stays with us. we will also talk about georgia. the runoff in georgia will decide who controls the senate. biden and trump held rallies in a final attempt to persuade voters. more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪ - [announcer] imagine having fuller, thicker,

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♪ >> we need you to vote again in record numbers. make your voices heard again and again to change georgia, to change america. this is not an exaggeration. georgia, the whole nation is looking to you to lead us forward. for real, you know it. >> if the liberal democrats take the senate or the white house -- they are not taking this white house, we will fight like hell. francine: both joe biden and donald trump held rallies in georgia for the critical senate runoff elections today. the president-elect promised more pandemic relief. trump repeats his claims that voting fraud robbed him of reelection. two seats up for grabs will decide who controls the senate. still with us is simon french. especiallyfrankly,

this election to go which way it goes. this will really decide what joe biden can do before he even gets the white house. simon: that is right. it will certainly determine the winative if the democrats those two seats in georgia and the vice president will have the casting vote in us what senate. s don't think -- i think it' important we don't see this as a threshold moment that will push a radical biden agenda. he still will have to take his party with him just to get through to that vote struck by the vp. anything towards the radical end of the spectrum will need more democrat support and is going to be a struggle regardless of the outcome. near-term, markets are looking on the dollar trade and shift

towards emerging markets. the market moving short-term, but probably from an economic standpoint, nothing big across the headlines. francine: what are you expecting from a joe biden presidency? what kind of economy will we have an 12, 24 months? simon: ok, so, from a domestic standpoint in the united states, i think there will be more of a recovery of parts of the economy that have been neglected under successive democrat and republican administrations. unionized jobs, industrial policy, this building back better. a lot of the stuff that really since the reagan administration has been in the background, but now moved to the foreground. from an international investors standpoint, i think joe biden will establish much more of a

multilateral relationship that has been put on the back burner by the trump administration. that will fuel this movement or confidence of investors moving out of the u.s. dollar to safe havens and back into emerging markets where they see opportunities with global trade getting help from the biden administration. francine: how much weaker are you expecting the dollar to go? simon: not much, actually. over 12 months, 24 months, i think the vast majority of the dollar weakness is already played out. i don't think it will go much lower. the momentum is clearly on the side of trade, shifting out of the dollar into the yen will push that to the margins. on the flipside, we will see a u.s. recovery both in terms of the economy and in terms of suppressing the virus, getting more control over that. thereforevestors will

want to hedge their positions and also being exposed to u.s. domestic strength fueled by the domestic agenda i was talking about. francine: what do you do with inflation all this time? exceeded 2%lation for the first time since 2018. i know this is over the next decade, but we don't start -- inflation this year. simon: for me, this is the year of reflation, not inflation. there will be some huge base effects. people looking quarter on quarter, month on month, three month annual averages. don't be scared. i would say near-term, because remember, just under a year ago, we were talking about a negative oil price. simply the base effects of that a year on will lead to some big numbers. the key for understanding jerome

powell, the fomc, central banks around the world response to inflation is whether they are responding to core weight inflation being sustained beyond recovery. we don't see that. there is a split view amongst economists as one of the reasons why some of the hedges against inflation or big inflation like gold, bitcoin have been so well supported. but we don't see inflation picking up. we see much more base effects driving 2021 and policy to try to hedge off inflation, just unnecessary over the next 12 to 24 months. francine: thank you so much. simon french. coming up tonight, we will have plenty more on the u.s., the u.s. economy and full coverage of the georgia senate runoff. that is from 7 p.m. eastern, midnight in london.

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francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash. here's leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: good morning. over the holiday period will be entirely wiped out by the new national lockdown. the retailer expects a profit of 370 million pounds for the year, slightly above its previous forecast. the better performance has been

helped by strong online demand. worsensket should it should offset covid-19 and reporting a solid quarter in the holiday with a recent boost to online sales. like rivals, it is benefiting by more people working from home. finally, some entertainment news. on pace to be one of the biggest hits netflix has seen this year. the series is set to be watched by more than 60 million households in its first four weeks, making it the fifth largest debut of any show on netflix. even so, it is unlikely to top the spanish crime series money heist or the documentary tiger king is the most-watched program released in 2020. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine? francine: coming up, more on election day, the runoff in georgia who decides who controls the senate.

it will actually decide what joe biden could do in his presidency. both joe biden and president trump held rallies in the final attempt to sway voters. we will have plenty more on that. if you look at the markets, they are still yet to make up their mind what to do with lockdown in the u.k. they still don't understand exactly with the rollout of the vaccine will look like. european stocks fluctuating, u.s. futures also fluctuating. traders weighing concern about the impact of the rising coronavirus cases, but also the key u.s. runoff elections. gold holding onto gains yesterday. the dollar falling. plenty more on the markets, plenty more on politics shortly. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ francine: economics, finance, politics -- this is bloomberg

surveillance. let's get straight to the bloomberg first word news. here's leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: 4.6 billion pounds of new support that will help businesses through the lockdown. retail, hospitality and leisure companies will be entitled as much as 9000 pounds. it as to the 280 billion the government has done so far to support workers. after the state said it would remove shares from china mobile, china telecom and china unicom. some of itsending covid-19 restrictions through mid-january which includes the ban on people moving around italy. it's also changing the rules as higher risk.

struggling to speed up the vaccination. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i'm 120 countries, leigh-ann gerrans, this is bloomberg. francine? francine: it is election day in georgia, but donald trump and joe biden have last-minute campaign rallies on the eve of needote but -- republicans to win just one of the two seats up for grabs to maintain their majority, and the democrats need when both seats. joining us is leslie vinjamuri, head of the u.s. america's program at chatham house. how tight will the race be in georgia? leslie: i think it will be very tight. both democratic candidates are up by a couple of points, but i think that is probably due in large part to the fact that a lot of democratic voters

continue to vote early. the polls are tougher to be able to call this race. out tof it will come doubt her turns out today. it might be days before we know the results of this election. as you know, francine, people are going to be incredibly careful about accounting given what we have seen in recent days from the president. francine: given that there is so much spotlight on georgia, are you expecting a record turnout, or is it impossible to say? i know it depends on the weather and things like that, but what is your feeling on this? we saw a record amount of people voting in the november election. >> i do expect a high turnout. people understand -- locals in georgia understand how high the

stakes are in this election. the profit -- the fact that president-elect eitan and president trump have both been -- president-elect biden and president trump have both been campaigning in the state. there has been some concern among republicans about whether the fact that president trump has contested the legitimacy of the election, whether that would depress turnout among republican voters. i'm not persuaded of that. we are still hearing republican voters saying that they are frustrated, they are concerned, but they are going to turn out. the proof will be in the pudding. we cannot know until after today, but i think there is so much focus on the race that we will see higher turnout than we would normally see in runoffs of this kind. francine: i sometimes get accused of looking at u.s. politics with a foreign brain, but my foreign brain tells me after listening to that phone call of president trump with the georgian official saying that he needed to find more votes, that actually the democrats have an

advantage here. am i wrong? leslie: georgia has not voted for senators in a couple of decades. we know that stacey abrams and many others have worked so hard to increase voter registration. that tends to go democrat. we know the suburbs has turned more democrat, but it is a very republican state, and the moderate middle of the republican party knows that president trump will not be in power, it is not all about him after january 20. they are looking ahead come concerned about the possibility of taxes being raised. and these votes will determine whether president-elect biden's capability -- has the capability to move congress. on the fences who is concerned about the republican party might well

swing. it is the republicans behind president trump who are willing say that tomorrow they will contest the certification of the vote. there are 12 republicans in the senate, well over 100 republicans in the house. that will worry many republican voters or than the president himself. francine: how long will we talk about that phone call? implications legal for this, or is it something the democrats don't want to touch because it could backfire? leslie: i think we will talk about the phone call for quite a long time. we will talk about many things. when president trump is out of office, there are many cases he will be facing at the state level. this will be a significant one. but the momentum in the united states is so much focused on the vaccination, on the pandemic, on the economic crisis. as soon a new president is in office and a new team, there is going to be so much forward momentum on policy and

governance. this will be an ongoing story. i don't think it will be on the front page of bloomberg news, but i think it will be there and i think it will carry on. francine: what are you expect from joe biden? a lot will depend on whether he has the senate or not, but what do you expect from joe biden in the first 100 days? does he need to show to americans that he is not too left wing? are right to you suggest that the republican party and the president and many of those, certainly those up for election today are trying to frame the democratic party as being socialist and being all about defunding the police and diversity, but i think that the biden team has made it clear that they have a very clear agenda, they are going to be trying to move very quickly both on the international agenda, bringing america back into the paris records, back into the w.h.o..

it sounds like there will be a movement into the jc away. we heard jake sullivan talking over the weekend with fareed zakaria, laying out his idea about foreign policy, building those alliances, reinvesting in those alliances with europe with an eye toward thinking about china. obviously thinking about that investment deal that the e.u. has negotiated despite america's -- biden's desire that they would have held back longer. so much will come down to these votes today. the ability of the biden team to push forward their spending packages, to move forward onicies on climate, immigration, on taxes. all of that will hinge on how effective they are in winning these two races. but of course they have the levers of regulation and of executive order, so in a lot of ways there are a lot of capabilities, but the thing that would be visible is what they can or cannot do in congress when it comes to domestic

policy. francine: leslie vinjamuri from chatham house stays with us, and we will talk more about what joe biden can do in his four years in charge. coming up, secretary of state mike pompeo says the iran risks wrapping up a change of behavior with the administration. our exclusive interview. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: secretary of state mike pompeo says the trump administration has made the world safer than it was four years ago and the u.s. has a more realistic approach to iran and israel. >> when you say by pulling out of the agreement with iran on nuclear weapons and nuclear

materials, we gained a benefit because it seems they have actually begun to develop more nuclear enrichment facilities than they had before. what would you say has been the benefit of pulling out of the riemann that we had with the iranians. >> three things. first, when president trump came into office, the iranians were growing their economy at 5, 6, 10% a year, and they were doing so with american wealth that was funneled through european companies that were doing business there. the money that the americans shipped to them to get the deal done. all of this was creating capacity for the kleptocratic and theocrat kratz of the republican -- in charge of the republican guard of iran. they have reduced their ability to underwrite militias in iraq. it has become more costly for , with real sanctions on

iranian activity taking place through the assad regime. we have diminished their to produce threats to people across the world. remember, i opposed the jcpoa vehemently when i was a member of congress. the iranians could start up their centrifuges anytime they wanted to. they made a promise that they wouldn't, but if they wanted to start the centrifuges up, in a snap they could. aey think they will have president coming into office again, they will raise their level of activity to a threat. unitedopeans and the states will enter into a countdown, one that presents them with an in norma's opportunity -- with an enormous opportunity. the people who have to live in close proximity to this islamic public of iran to understand

that the approach of the trump administration with respect to iran was the right one, and that we ought not go back to the policies of the previous years to our time in office. david: there was a concern that on the first anniversary of soleimani's death that they -- that there was an attack on iran on its facilities but so far that has not happened. >> making an attack on the united states is something that they make nearly daily. they have threatened the president, me, and other senior leaders of the united states government. they threaten israel nearly daily. we are on guard, always ready. it has been the case for four years. may will be the case so long as i am the secretary of state and president trump is our president. we will be prepared and we will do the right thing to deter them, to prevent them from having the resources to inflict costs.

now 40 years plus, this regime has been there threatening israel and the united states, and we have done the right things, put america in the right place to convince the array needs that this is a bad idea. if they decide to take action, i am confident that the trump administration will spot in a way that president trump talked about and tweeted about a week, a week and a half ago. pompeoe: that was mike speaking to david rubenstein. you can catch that later on the david rubenstein show. us, leslie vinjamuri from chatham house. how much will joe biden focus on foreign policy as opposed to domestic issues? leslie: well, if you listen to the biden team, as we all have come and continue to do, they are making it very clear that domestic policy and foreign policy are two sides of the same coin, strength abroad has got to be premised on what works for americans, what works for the u.s. middle-class. i think we are going to see an

immediate move into thinking very strategically about america's foreign policy from day one, reinvesting in alliances in order to do that, really working very carefully with e.u., with europe, with u.k. on the challenges of china, of trade and investment, on the question of a jcpoa, the iran deal, and any number of broader strategic questions, clearly the domestic agenda will occupy so much of the president's time, and i think the fact that he's taken susan rice and put her in a domestic role shows both the intentions to integrate the two sides of the biden agenda, domestic and foreign, but also of supreme importance that will be based on domestic policy come on investing in the economy and infrastructure, and the immediate days on delivering that back to the nation, talking about the 100-day possibly mask

mandate, bringing the numbers down, getting the vaccination outcome and taking longer term policies to bring the economy into a good place, and that is where the foreign policy agenda and the domestic agenda are. francine: the u.s. seems so divided right now. what can president-elect biden do to try and make sure that people that voted for president trump feel like biden is also there president. think this is the most important story that we are going to be watching in the u.s. the division, the polarization, but really across the populace, one of the concerns i have is, how do you bring back the white working-class while pursuing an agenda that is very necessarily and importantly focused on racial justice, which is clearly important to the biden administration but does alienate ? if you listen to americans

across the middle of the country, white americans, there is no doubt that they are concerned that they are being left out of this, that it is not about them, that it is about people of color. this is a difficult set of policies to conjure up that will speak to both. it biden team is hoping to be able to the liver a broader stimulus package if the race is -- if the races in georgia go their way. that will be easier. a lot of those benefits will actually deliver concrete material outcomes for both of those constituencies, diverse populations as well as white working-class americans. so there would be material benefits for both. what i think at the rhetorical level and on some policies, affirmative action, it will be difficult to build some of the bridges. but i think they have absolute awareness of what is critical. there is also, as you know, the key question of how you get

people back into a conversation that is facts based, that is unified around a certain set of facts and debates, where they can even continue or begin to consider policies carefully. right now we are almost in a fact free universe in so much of america and so much of the media that people are absorbing. it is quite disturbing. francine: leslie vinjamuri, thank you so much. coming up, the listing u-turn. delisting chinese telecoms companies. we look into that next, and this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london. the bloomberg business flash with leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: u.k. canceler rishi sunak is rolling out 4.6 billion pounds of new support to help businesses through the lockdown. retail, hospitality, and service companies will be having access

to 9000 pounds. it is part of 18 billion that the government has pledged so far to workers and businesses. >> the end is in sight. we are vaccinating more and more people every day, so that is why we are redoubling our efforts to protect his nurses, jobs, and incomes. -- to protect businesses, jobs, and incomes. sayh-ann: bloomberg sources --argeholcim is in talks to to affect within $2.5 billion. a deal may be reached as soon as this week for some j.p.morgan is taking to establish another chinese joint venture in wealth management amid a global rush that caps a piece of the market that is expected to grow as much as $30 trillion in 2023. sources tell bloomberg

j.p.morgan is preliminarily involved with chinese merchant bank, expanding on a strategic partnership. britain is on pace to be one of the biggest hits netflix has seen ever. the series is set to be watched by more than 60 million households in his first four weeks, making it the largest debut of any show on netflix. even so, it is unlikely to top the spanish crime series and the documentary tiger king as the int watched program released 2020. that is the bloomberg business flash. francine? francine: i have heard of richardson. e new york stock exchange, no longer delisting chinese telecom companies back -- joining us now is our bloomberg reporter.

gregor, thank you for joining us. we knew that this delisting was going to be a major process, but i don't think we thought it was going to be this messy. it has been a reputational hit for the new york stock exchange. comments from analysts on the order of venom, so quite unexpected was one. people -- stocks are taking it as a bullish signal. the telecoms companies and sales are up 3% to 8% apiece. bump for a short company which had been mentioned for delisting. unsure chinese shares rallied to surpass the highs

reached during the 2015 bubble, so the market is interpreting this as a bullish signal. are these chinese companies listed in new york anyway? gregor: china is quite well represented in the new york stock exchange for the past few decades, because of the use and the status of domestic exchanges. thisnies had been listing and the u.s. as the deepest capital markets, since the year 2000, that fundraising has exceeded $144 billion. while the narrative has started to change during the trump --rs, the fund it is that the fund is at a steady rate. many of the internet companies which had been lurking --

lourdes to new york, things like secondaryhey had listings in hong kong as the exchange weakened in investor protection. that affected a lot of other companies as well. new york is not as critical to their plans as it was in the past. francine: thank you so much, our bloomberg reporter gregor stuart hunter.r chinese stocks are at a 13 year high, that is how they closed the session today. in the next hour we look at georgia, the lockdown in the u.k., and we look at vaccines. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: winter of discontent. england goes back into a six-week lockdown in an attempt to stop hospitals being overwhelmed. georgia on my mind. joe biden and donald trump hold rallies ahead of a critical runoff election that will decide which party controls the senate. and the new york stock exchange scraps plans to delist china's top telecoms in a big u-turn -- top telcos in a big u-turn with little explanation. china mobile among those sharply higher. good morning, everyone, and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. tom keene in new york. tom, georgia, georgia, georgia. that will set the case for what the biden presidency will look like. we also look at lockdowns in england that will last for at least two months, and we look at the implications for the vaccine rollout. tom: georgia front and center on so many different planes. we will have a lot of coverage on that. i thought that gregor stewart was wonderful, with his covera