♪ >> we are gathered at a time when democracy is in crisis. >> they object to that free and fair election. >> if this election were overturned by mere allegations from the losing side, our democracy would -- >> for those who entered our capital today, you did not win. >> never could we imagine the assault made on our democracy today. is a reminder, a

painful one that democracy is fragile. >> this is bloomberg surveillance. morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance." is off today. a wild week in washington getting wilder. new president officiated by congress, new leadership in the senate. markets go up. they keep going up, that is what they do. this question came up so many times in the heat of the moment yesterday. i have great respect. it is amazing how the markets could dealing from the trauma that we are all witnessing. what we saw yesterday, i will witha moment and just say a print of 38,000 dollars on bitcoin, there are some exceptions. continues the moonshot.

gold is not giving me that much at 1920 an ounce. the prospect of it being digital gold, i will not attend to be an expert on bitcoin. there are many enthusiasts. it is definitely the hot asset class right now. treasury yield climbing up to the highest before the pandemic really rocked the economy. if thisd the question is the beginning of something more aligning the treasury yield. tom: we welcome all of you on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. christopher publishing moments ago making really clear he says it is a yield curve breakout. we will do the data through the hour. in this hour we will do the economics of the labor economy

with claims. i am in the 8:00 hour, right? lisa: that is right. shifting offlly that report. right now we go back to washington and the dynamics of this thursday morning for the president and president elect. cirilli, our chief washington correspondent, what is the symbolism of cnbc reporting that mick mulvaney, the former chief of staff, he has resigned? kevin: it is striking. mick mulvaney was one of the founding members of the house freedom caucus. the ultraconservative wing of the republican party. closely aligned with mark meadows. the president's chief of staff who replaced mick mulvaney when he left. for mick mulvaney, it is not just him but his entire political orbit.

people like the former deputy communications at the white house. also speaking out, posting to her social media accounts. use a mild word, uneasiness within several former top officials at the white house. tom: i don't want you to speculate about names. jonathan ferro talks to lawrence kudlow every once in a while. serious that we could see cabinet level resignations? kevin: you could. is 15 days, there left between now and inauguration. there is also this uneasiness right now in the leadership of the republican party about how to navigate those 15 days. president trump's twitter was open this morning after the platform had flagged his tweets and temporarily suspended the account. , leader mcconnell,

vice president pence all weighing how to navigate america . the democracy through the next 15 days before the inauguration. last time you the slept? kevin: a couple of hours ago. lisa: i'm worried about you. it is a volatile time. kevin: you don't have to worry about me. question about a the exhaustion level in washington, d.c., and how it is to howlayed out as they could get their agenda together to combat a very battered economy by a pandemic that is still raging and accelerating. what is the energy level to do that? kevin: the energy level is to get through today. where policy comes in, i don't think there will be any theificant shift until

incoming administration is sworn in. later today on bloomberg radio i will speak with the chairman of the caucus, the republican and democrat who are able to get the foundation with the last shot of economic stimulus. the caucus, i have to be candid here they are representative of remething mo then just a stimulus bill. could politicians work together? the let's spin forward in 24 hour news cycle. brennan will be on bloomberg radio along with a number of good voices. ,ow do they manage the message republicans and democrats just to get to sunday morning? kevin: it will be interesting. i was thinking about this when i came in today. how do we ask the questions to

lawmakers who gave riveting testimony in the chambers yesterday in the house and senate at about the state of affairs in america's democracy? how do those elected officials bring about their constituents of who they represent as this progresses forward? thank you so much for the reporting through the day and sound tonight on bloomberg radio worldwide as well. we tried to migrate over to economics. we tried to do that with one of the great optimist i have seen over the years. the chief market strategist of ubs. a string about the mizzen against the gloom there that was legendary. onld you maintain optimism the american economic experiment after what we observed yesterday?

drew: we look forward to 2021 we have a couple of things going for us. the stimulus package was passed. have the vaccine rollout. you willathers steam get closer and closer to something being a little more normal towards the end of the year. that provides a lot of momentum into 2021. i have to say i am optimistic. we talked about yields earlier. gone on too far of a run based on how things are progressing right now. by the end of the year we will see yields most -- much closer to where they are in 2019. in today'smoves market is the dollar, it is gaining value. typically today is a day the dollar would lose in respect to other major currencies because people are not looking for a

haven investment. is this being used as a political referendum? the idea of poor fiscal stimulus? how are you reading this? the behavior of a lot of markets, it is a stimulus driven growth. we see long-term investing trends. you don't want to be reliant on stimulus growth. you wanted to be organic and natural. not the result of money being pumped into the system or assets being purchased by the central bank. i think we are getting there. what we are seeing in terms of stimulus will help bridge the gap. you cannot rely on that indefinitely. at those i question how sustainable they are because they are not being driven by that organic activity that we would hope it is driven life. lisa: could treasury yield keep going up if you don't see that

organic activity? i think they have gone a little too far, too fast. and gotten ahead of themselves. so, maybeonth or yields could move lower. i think by the time we get to the second half of this year there will be a clear upward trend on yields. the underlying economic activity. tom: i don't want to get you in trouble but where is the amount of actuarial assumption right now, is it nudging upward? interestyou look at rates and potential growth, one of the things we have been noting and written about is there's a good chance the productivity comes out of the cycle and looks really good. that economic cycle is a productivity cycle. for interestgood

rates and the economy of raleigh. -- economy of rabelais. abroadly. lisa: my favorite comment of yours was when you say i don't want to get you in trouble. you could basically read it as i'm trying to get you in trouble. tom: the general counsel is on the phone right now. [laughter] it is interesting, the comment about productivity that we could get a boom in that. you it is interesting when fold it into three ratios, six numbers. interesting is the visible and indivisible labor dynamic rafter out of the labor cost. i'm sorry. it is a mystery. is paide labor dynamic forward by coffee right now.

understand the wage dynamic right now. at 8:30.ming up here us fromills joins raymond james. this is bloomberg. ♪ after an extraordinary day on capitol hill, president trump is promising there will be an orderly transition earlier today. congress certified joe biden's victory. minutes earlier, one of the president's aids tweeted out a statement from him. the president said even though i disagree with the outcome of the , there will be an orderly transition on january 20. they are taking no chances around the capital today. national guard troops have been

deployed around the building. that was after an undermanned police force was overwhelmed by trump supporters who storm the building. it was an unprecedented breach theecurity and forced evacuation of vice president mike pence and members of the house and senate. for the first time, twitter and facebook have suspended president trump's account. they escalated their crackdown on the social media post after he encouraged them. twitter told the president to delete three tweets or he would face an extended ban. emergencya state of has been declared in tokyo and surrounding areas. the number of coronavirus cases have had a daily record in the city. they won't be a strict as lockdowns in parts of europe, they will be asked not to go out after 8:00 p.m. news 24 hours a day and on bloomberg quicktake. powered bikes wonder heideman -- by0 journalists -- powered

2700 journalists. this is bloomberg. ♪ save hundreds on your wireless bill without even leaving your house. just keep your phone and switch to xfinity mobile. you can get it by ordering a free sim card online. once you activate, you'll only have to pay for the data you need starting at just $15 a month. there are no term contracts, no activation fees, and no credit check on the first two lines. get a $50 prepaid card when you switch. nationwide 5g is now included. switch and save hundreds. xfinity mobile.

hour, our democracy is under an unprecedented assault.

unlike anything we have seen in modern times. >> today was heartbreaking. i was shaken to the core as i thought about the people in china, russia, afghanistan, iraq , who yearn for freedom and they look to these buildings and these shores as a place of hope. , thean hour ago or so democrat mentioning the quality mitt romney.m some of the voices yesterday as we have a new day in washington. any number of perspectives. this is an important perspective. edward mills is raymond james washington policy analyst. this is a day to speak to him about his time about -- on capitol hill. wasi could think yesterday

the old supreme court chamber down at the bottom of the goital and how people would into that tiny room through that the original desks of the nine supreme court justices. they would hide. where would you have hidden in the capital yesterday? edward: it depends on where i was. the first thing i thought about was after 9/11, every office got gas masks for every member of congress, every staff member. as --d've gotten as close to the members chairs as possible. after the 1954 shooting, every one of those seats were made bulletproof. i was thinking about that as i was getting some of these first reports. it was shocking to see members donning those gas

masks. huddled behind the seat. security officers with guns drawn trying to protect the chamber. i haven't seen guns drawn in that chamber since looking at the photos from the 50 -- 1950's. this was a very scary day. my firstide was one of jobs as an assistant on the hill in early 2001. i brought countless constituents through that chamber. in 1831 and moved upstairs we told them. there are a lot of ducks and crannies. there are a lot of openings in the capital. that is where it is a very difficult building to defend. it is shocking that it was breached. tom: how will this change the policy of moderates like president-elect biden? how does your policy change after yesterday?

edward: the policy world the question i got a lot yesterday was when something like this, is there going to be some event, is there a vote on a stimulus bill to show that we are turning -- returning to regular order. biden is sworn in, i do look at some of the realm of the possible. that includes an infrastructure bill, maybe on the fringe of something like an immigration bill. there is a lot of politics to it. responses that have the most bipartisan support is continued spending out of washington, d.c. you saw the market react to that with yield curves steepening

with discretionary industrial having a nice run. response.direct what is in the art of possible, how big could this be? it would be capped off at $1 trillion and likely much lower than that. step one would be the bow on the check. they would like to see what they could do on state and local funding. that is probably capped at about $300 million. there are expiring provisions on unemployment come march. i would be surprised if there was a push to get additional funding for small businesses. it is a continuation of what we have done. further focusing money on areas that have not gotten as much as democrats were pushing for. if they can't get it done through a regular order, i would

be looking for budget reconciliation. that is a simple majority vote. they have not done a reconciliation for the fiscal year 21 budget that we are in. try later this year to tried budget reconciliation on fiscal year 2022. the most recent presidents have gotten through some of their biggest kick in items that requires a simple majority. what you think is first up to go into that? does fiscal stimulus have enough support to get through right away? edward: if they were to do it , the way it would be have been telling clients to look at budget reconciliation is not a tax bill but a bill of all of the democrat's priorities. changesld include tax

plus policy changes. not only would we see capital gains and dividend rates go up to ordinary income for households above $1 million, workers would get paid sick leave. there would be a push to have childcare funded. is there an effort to further funded down payment assistance? to deal with income inequality? this will not be just a tax bill. tom: one final question as one snapshot of what they had. years old,ey, 80 head of appropriations in the senate. how does that change your world? edward: still needs to get compromised. the thing about the appropriations process is it needs 60 votes. my mindset is if anything changes, it is on things like appropriation. things that he minority has had

the ability to hold hostage. the opening or closing of the government is something i think could break before larger changes to the filibuster. thank you. particularly the vignette as we saw the trauma yesterday. futures advanced. they pushed the gloom aside. futures of 22. -- futures up 22. lisa: this is the question of certain democratic priorities. will you end up with higher taxes? will a lot of people shrugged this off saying there is not the political appetite? have studied equipment leasing seven times. plugged it every time. reconciliation rivals that. explain it to me in the break. lisa: i will.

we will get some coffee. tom: we could reconcile. eolli from jp morgan joins us. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ - [announcer] imagine having fuller, thicker, more voluminous hair instantly. all it takes is just one session at hairclub. introducing xtrands. xtrands adds hundreds or even thousands of hair strands to your existing hair at the root.

they're personalized to match your own natural hair color and texture, so they'll blend right in for a natural, effortless look. call in the next five minutes and when you buy 500 strands, you get 500 strands free. call right now. (upbeat music)

"bloomberg surveillance" the deputy prime minister says businesses should plan to stay closed throughout the first quarter of this year. the is some example of labor challenges worldwide. michael mckee looking at the thursday claims, which become so important. hard to get a clean read on this because of the holidays. 780 7000 is the main number. it looks like not a lot of change. did every state get their data in? we don't know that yet. howquestion that we have is

accurate are these numbers around the holiday period? people cannot file on holidays. last week was new year's. did we get two michaels on th? jobs today, adp migrates from positive 75, two positive 50,000. how did they link claims? michael: it doesn't link directly to claims. numbers with people who get jobs. generally when people get jobs we are not adding a lot. the interesting thing post adp, it did have a big influence on economists. the consensus from job creation to 50,00062,000

overnight. i know it was going to be at 62,000, the weakest since 2011. we probably go back about that far when we were still losing jobs. we are going to have a weak month according to economists. the total number of people who is receiving benefits, this in the middle of december. we are still looking at an awful lot of people who are out of work. i don't usually quote this because it does not correlate very well with what is happening in the economy. the job cut announcement if you just want to look at trends, they say in december they raised 134%. that doesn't mean that many people will be laid off. it is further confirmation the labor market remains very weak. lisa: i want to talk to the

stirring we are seeing in the market. getting fired when it roars back. businesses have to close. the long-term unemployed who have seen their ranks raised to the highest since 2013. how much higher do people expect that to go as you watch this turn leave a lot of people out of the market. michael: congress extended that through march. we will see more and more long-term unemployment. how easy will it be for people to go back to work to find jobs? what kind of companies will be left when this is over? november balance for 68.1 million trade deficit. that is more than expected and much bigger than the prior month of 63.1. that will be a drag on growth in

the fourth quarter, they had expecting it to be weak anyway. tomorrow the big day, the jobs report. we want to dig into this number and also the expectation tomorrow for the jobs data. whether we are going to see a negative print. whether people are really reassessing expectations. did you reassess your prediction for the december jobs report based on what we heard out of ?dp yesterday ak michael: we will see what we get. we will see whether the jobless claims challenges that you mentioned, they all look weaker in december relative to november. relative to expectations. i think it is pretty clear the current wave of infections is

weighing on activity. whether it is above or below zero i think is a second-order relative to what we are seeing pretty clearly as a notable deceleration. i don't want you to play rate strategist but i want you to talk about the ambiguity right now with the american economy. if we have a december slowdown into a quarter one slowdown, how does that work with interest rates? transmission mechanism from the interest rate strategy, is that linkage broken? michael: were we to project for the weakness we are seeing right now, we, like many others are expecting not only an improvement in the public health situation but also further

fiscal support to the economy. as we get out of the winter months, that growth will pick up pretty significantly. that should push interest rates up. tom: what do you look for from a fiscal policy? prospects. what is your statistic for fiscal policy needed? in light of tuesday nights elections, it clearly increases the chances that we do support forfiscal the economy. we have already heard from presumptive majority leader schumer that the $2000 stimulus checks will be a first priority. that alone the about $400 billion worth of cash in the pockets of american consumers. in addition to sources of

support to the economy. alsoemocratic agenda includes tax increases. given the tenuous state of the economy we think spending increases rather than tax increases should be a pretty material boost. lisa: we are speaking to michael ferolli of jp morgan. we have -- we are able to move away from this and talk about the economic ramifications of the long-term unemployment rate. 37% of the joblessness we are seeing right now and what we are seeing is 27 weeks or longer. people to while for be considered permanently unemployed. how much is structurally higher do expect that to be coming forward and what are the implications? the long-term

unemployed is anybody who has been unemployed for more than six months. the pandemicer hit, the long-term unemployed go up. the number of people who claim they are permanent job losers, that has been elevated to what we saw late last year. it has remained quite a bit below levels we saw. we are seeing permanent scarring. i think it is probably less than we feared in april. those long-term unemployed and some of the decline in participation you the referenced maybe due to part. there is some evidence due to at homeschooling using participation with parents who may be reluctant to go back to

the workplace or rush back into the workplace. ,resumably one that normalizes we saw participation increase. it is one of the areas that we would worry about. we saw that could get undone. one of the calmest ways to describe what working parents or nonworking parents have to deal with at home. back, andake a step you look at the legacy of the coronavirus pandemic the united states and globally, what will it be? michael: might be a little too early to judge. what we are seeing shows in terms of the recovery and what we expect for this year shows demand management policy for lack of a better phrase. monetary and fiscal policy. it could have a powerful effect a significantng

to the economy. it shows the benefit of having what was a pretty strong -- sound structural economy. didn't have too much in the way that could've amplified the downturn. the lessonsfully will be more favorable about how we could deal with downturns in the future. tom: thank you so much with jp morgan. we will go beneath the headline data at 8:30. a relatively difficult claim statistic. 200,000, 250 thousand, that is a bad number. we are still elevated near 800,000 as well. lisa, your observation as we go to the morning. this is when washington wakes up, about right now. it will be an eventful morning. we are seeing resignations coming through with mick

mulvaney resigning. who takes the leadership role of the republican party if president trump lose some clout here. tom: tiffany's has completed its acquisition of lvmh. lisa: will it change the keen household? this is a sore point, is it not? is directly across the street from tiffany's. you could segue between them in an effortless manner. luis is not. our new puppy has a chewy vuitton chew toy. lisa: that bowtie you did once way. tom: it has already been chewed. with a move forward serious discussion in washington, d.c. this morning.

we have continuing coverage from kevin cirilli. westin, balance of power, look for them in the noon hour. later this morning, an important conversation with the blackstone vice chairman on the view forward. futures up 21. this is bloomberg. congress has made it official. joe biden will be the next president of the united states, hours after supporters of president trump stormed the capital. that, an aide to the president posted a message on twitter. he said "even though i disagree with the outcome of the election bear me out, there will be an orderly transition on january 20. -- u.s. consul reports

oters breached and storm the capital. to lead to evacuation of mike pence and members of the house and senate. inability to the protect american democracy. calm was restored after the national guard was called out. president trump's relationship with his most loyal subordinates has hit the breaking point. defiedesident mike pence the call to overturn the election. he announced he did not have the power to draw electoral college votes. that prompted the president to tweet that pence didn't have the courage to do what should have been done. president trump's former chief of staff mick mulvaney is quitting his current post. the special envoy to northern ireland, he told cmb say he cannot stay and expect others to follow. mulvaney said those who stay now

are doing so because they are afraid the president might put someone worse in. on air and on quicktake. i'm ritika gupta, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> what happened today in -- we believe in the

strength of our democracy. strength ofn the american democracy. yesterday was a disgraceful act and it must be vigorously condemned. i have no doubt that american democracy will prevail. it always has. happened in the united states is terribly distressing. one of the world's greatest democracies. i have no doubt that will prevail. lisa: world leaders weighing in on what we have seen in .ashington dc emmanuel macron, benjamin ofanyahu, and scott morrison australia. we have seen a change in terms of what is expected for the year ahead with democrat seizing control of the senate. we are seeing a lift and markets. coming up on the open we will be

talking about all of this as well as the prospect of mergers, acquisitions, banking, co-chief executive officer tom, a fascinating morning. an economy still very much beset by a pandemic. tom: mr. mulvaney, we have a headline he quit as the way to show disapproval. we will go to our editor-at-large, marty schenker. it is the 25th amendment -- not the 12th amendment, fourth amendment, a. it is a new, young thing. it makes it ever untested. marty: it is a very complicated process under the constitution to be able to remove a president from office or suspend his

activities because he is unable to perform his duties. a unanimoushave cabinet. you must bring it to congress. it could be disputed there. i just wonder just how practical it is, should it be considered? this has been knocked around by illness of presidents when they are incapacitated. crisis.ee i have been on for 14 hours. could you get the bloody mary's? you look at the 25th amendment and it is hugely untested and certainly un-trusted under crisis. it is absolutely untested. there is an emotional response to what happened yesterday. you are getting people calling for donald trump to resign. having discussions about

the 25th amendment. there are resignations happening. you mentioned mick mulvaney resigning his diploma seat post. not a big deal. i'm sure there are many members of this administration -- even in the cabinet thinking about this. i havee of the things seen is the political future, the leadership that was supporting mr. trump. that would be the senator from missouri and also the good senator from texas, mr. cruz as well. is a young senator. ted cruz is a tangible senior leader of republicans. are there careers change? are banking on the fact that this is just a transitory moment and what really matters is what is going to happen two-three years from now to the american electorate.

we are all grappling with the someion, was yesterday sort of turning point in the of the unitedset states? that remains to be seen. i personally think it really did damage. tom: what does craig gordon on our team say? i know billy and others were at the yesterday. say, what will you look for on our team in washington? marty: they are looking towards the inauguration and joe biden who represents democratic controlled government. what we need to do is think about the moderate republicans and the moderate democrats. who in thisllins'

new senate really hold the power as opposed to the majority leader schumer. the blurry black-and-white photo. maybe it was the second. you look at the scaffolding there in 1865 or 1861. the tension that was there as we entered the civil war. scaffolding on january 20, it was invaded yesterday. stark the irony will be when joe biden and kamala harris on that platform we saw images .esterday being assaulted will be a calming moment? that remains to be seen. .t will be an important day

tom: the markets, looking over the cliche has been that bridge. we have a pandemic bridge. where is marty schenker's bridge right now? are we trying to get over to the beginning of baseball season? where is the bridge right now? marty: i'm pretty excited about the knicks. four out ofn five. thebridge is getting over virus, getting the population vaccinated. the prospect of a stimulus package that a new congress and new president brings in. i think there is the ability to have some optimism about the future. tom: this came up last night. democratic president, democratic house, democratic senate.

third tunnel under the hudson? one only hopes. if you have ever been in the lincoln tunnel in rush hour, you know the infrastructure needs addressing. marty schenker is our editor-at-large. up 18. dow futures of 96. 23.36.ints, the saudi's move oil, two or three long days ago. 54. i cannot talk anymore. 54.11 on brent crude. west texas over $50 a barrel. the dollar really not playing all that much. maybe a little short cover. we will drive forward. we have the conversation on the federal reserve within this crisis in washington. loretta mester of the cleveland

fed looks for that tonight. please stay with us through the day on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television on the morning in washington. ♪

>> >> this is bloomberg best. >> kevin burns, welcome. >> we have always been a mixture of things. growth is a way to delight more and more consumers. >> are you worried people won't take the vaccine? >> what is one word of advice? >> learn how to listen. that has served me well. >> it is a huge opportunity. partnerhilosophy is to where can and stand apart when we should. ♪

lisa: for viewers worldwide, i'm lisa abramowicz. the countdown to the open starts now. we begin with chaos and washington, d.c. the, supporters storm interrupting joe biden's presidential victory with a wave of unrest that took police hours to control. president trump finally urged supporters to go home but repeated the baseless claims about the u.s. election. >> i know your pain. i know you are hurt. we had an election that was stolen from us. it was a landslide election, and everyone knows it, especially the other side, but you have to go home now. we have to have peace. lisa: the market's continued resilience stop holding onto gains yesterday as futures pushed higher ahead of today's opening bell. they sit on the prospect of more stimulus with congress formally recognizing joe biden as the next president.