call for president trump to be removed from office for inciting the capitol chaos. the clock ticks. there are 12 days left in his administration. donald trump finally concedes that joe biden will be the next president. meanwhile, there are reports that the president is considering pardoning himself, as well as sweeping lists of other individuals. and global stocks continue to climb after u.s. equities close at an all-time high. traders bet on additional stimulus, and it's also jobs day. good morning, everyone, and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. tom keene in new york. a bit quieter on the political front after the last 72 hours. there is still the reflation trade going on, they are looking at stimulus, and they expect a lot more quiet after january 20. what is interesting is not only are we looking on oil but also touchingbriefly $40,000. tom: rather than tired or

quieter, i would say people are just simply exhausted waiting for the news flow to january 20. we are going to try to do a little less on politics because we have the distraction in that jobs report. i'm not going to mince words. the latest jobs data is pretty grim. francine: we have to figure out if it is related to the lockdown or underlying something a little bit deeper. you are right, people are exhausted, tom, what if you are a portfolio manager in charge of $2 trillion, you have to make -- here is ritika gupta with first word news. you take a co-president trump is -- isika: president trump condemning the actions of demonstrators, saying that -- he promised to pursue a smooth transition to the biden administration. president trump is coming under

more pressure, facing calls to resign. talks of impeachment and a push for mike pence to take constitutional steps to force him from office. democratic leaders say pence and the trump cabinet should invoke the 25th amendment, providing a way for the president to be removed. hence hasn't responded. another trump cabinet member has resigned over the right at the capitol. betsy devos squarely laid the blame for the main him -- the mayhem at the seat of the president. quit as elaine chao transportation secretary. she is married to mitch mcconnell. u.k. imposed mandatory coronavirus testing on all incoming travelers, having to take a test within 72 hours. they will have to isolate at

home for 10 days regardless of their test results. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i am ritikantries, gupta. this is bloomberg. tom? tom: it is an interesting and nuanced data check today. francine mentioned bitcoin. gold pulls back. fascinating to see where gold 1891 an ounce. inflation expectations rising. steve englander, of standard chartered, the research note of the morning? he is heated in looking at the data that the inflation expectations are driven off dollar and driven off oil, not so much rising economic inflation. i thought it was a fascinating note. futures up 11. francine? francine: if you look at

european stocks, they are headed for their best weekly gains in's november. i'm looking at tech shares, boosted also by earnings reports but alson chip members u.s. chipmakers. i know we have -- chipmakers but also u.s. chipmakers. we have to talk about rising stocks because they are rising but it is also nothing that huge. there is a clear indication from investors they are betting democratic control of the senate will give joe biden better ability to battle -- 10 year treasury yields pretty much flat. after facing calls for removal from several prominent democrats, residents up released a video last night from the white house. bys. trump: i am outraged the violence, lawlessness, and mayhem. the demonstrators who infiltrated the capitol defiled the seat of american democracy. to those who engaged in the acts of violence and destruction, you do not represent our country.

to those who broke the law, you will pay. we have just been through an intense election, and emotions are high. now tempers must be cooled and calm restored. administration will be inaugurated on january 20. my focus turns to ensuring a smooth, orderly, and seamless transition of power. this moment calls for healing and reconciliation. i know you are disappointed, but i also want you to know that our incredible journey is only just beginning. joining us now is greg valliere, u.s. policy strategist. what has changed in u.s. politics after january 6, 2021? is donald trump now out of mainstream republican politics? two bigthink there are changes. number one, you have the democrats controlling both houses. not by a lot, but they control

them. i think the prospects for a bigger stimulus bill later this winter have increased quite a bit. number two, the threats , tonight to impeach trump ease the 25th them -- to use the 25th amendment, to drive him out of office, even for the wall street journal calling for his resignation, i think that has forced trump to concede the obvious. francine: what does that mean for the republican going forward? greg: tremendous fisher, tremendous division within the party. at the grassroots, trump is still very popular. party,mainstream realizes that he is an albatross, that trump could bring the entire party down. they have to begin to move away from him aggressively. greg valliere, good morning. the republican party of your granite state goes back to 1853, and there has been evolution, some ugly, some not so ugly,

through the years. how does the republican party senator holly of missouri move forward? going to be really difficult. throw ted cruz in there as well. they need to assess their role in all of this. over the next several months you will see the emergence of really two parties, a moderate republican party and the trump party. it will be a lot -- it will be a while before those wings are reconciled. tom: they are not going to be reconciled after what we saw yesterday. the secretary of education and the secretary of transportation resigned. who knows who will resigned today. i'm fascinated by your expertise in the primary process to 2022. hawley machine, the cruz machine? how do they prosecute the

primaries of 2022? greg: it is going to be very difficult, but i would point out that republicans yesterday continued their national convention. trump received a rapturous response when he called in. it is not like the entire grassroots party is going to turn against him. francine: when you look at what happens to the joe biden administration trying to unify the country, what do people want? is it stimulus? you talk about coming together and politicians need to do that, but what will actually make trump's base appeased with what is going on? greg: they probably won't be, but what the country needs now even more than a stimulus bill after yesterday's jobs report, the need for the stimulus bill is quite apparent. the country just needs some stability comes in peace and quiet, some sense from this low-key joe biden that he has a normal ego, that he doesn't have

a trumpian ego. i think the country is just looking for a period of stability. greg, how many people think the election was fair? do we need to bend -- to spend a bit more time looking at american citizens because that gives an indication of what comes next? -- as late as it was, it is a signal to his supporters that he has conceded. there will still be a while of lingering resentment, but i think we need to move on to the economy. lest we forget, the fatalities just yesterday from covid were at an all-time daily high, so we are not out of the woods on that either. we need to focus on those things rather than lunacy of an election fraud which did not exist. tom: give us a vignette of your washington of the last 48 hours. you are ensconced in fancy

luxury digs in washington as well. just give us one little greg valliere touch of what you witnessed over the last 48 hours? they people were shocked, were sickened about what happened. it as we get to friday, people are exhausted. the emotional exhaustion from such an extraordinary attack on our institutions will persist for a while. that is why i think joe biden is the antidote. he is low-key. we need somebody like that for a while who doesn't make crazy charges. tom: greg valliere, thank you so much for joining us, from his washington, d.c., this morning. a research note -- get that through agf. we always protect copyright of our guests. copyright onhas a the council of foreign relations. richard haass is the president of cfr. i cannot say enough about the book of the summer, still my book of the winter.

it is a changed world. ambassador haass in the 6:00 hour. this is bloomberg. ♪

its moralted authority. >> it is quite clear to the public that this is a president who has actively encouraged this kind of behavior, because if he hadn't it wouldn't take place. >> this is not a case where you're dealing with something that came with no intelligence. if you open a newspaper last week, we saw they were boasting about coming to washington, to use the presidents word, going

wild. >> don't dare use a word processor. ,hey were a violent mob domestic terrorists. >> the president needs to do some introspection as to whether what he did contributed, what his family did. >> repeatedly what is known, should have known where this will end. not only -- believing they would enrich themselves. i find it really very disappointing behavior. >> american democracy will survive, add none of our leaders will be intimidated. all-outleashed an assault on our institutions of our democracy from the outset. yesterday was the culmination of that unrelenting attack. >> i joined the senate democrat leader in calling on the vice president to remove the president by invoking the 25th

amendment. >> i do not believe that is appropriate at this point. tom: the blur of voices, and what we try to do at bloomberg is synthesize and strain those voices down to common sense that we can listen to on both sides of the aisle. yesterday, to have dr. dean with us from the democrats and andrew card from the republicans, just one example of what we are trying to accomplish, francine and i, lisa, jon ferro, blown away by what our team has done over the last 48 hours. right now we are going to drag ourselves to the research zeitgeist of the moment, the firmer of research is extraordinary come and we are thrilled to have jeremy scratch -- jeremy stretch with us from cibc. from high frequency economics, credit suisse, and cibc, what kind of inflation is this that we are seeing, and what they are saying is, horse and cart, cart

and horse, that the movements in oil and the movements in dollar are what are affecting us to a belief of higher inflation. is -- as colonel weinberg says, it may look like inflation. is the inflation real, jeremy stretch, or is it just dollar and oil dynamics? jeremy: certainly who are right that you are right to put the oil on death the finger on the oil price and the potential inflation spike, but it is that broader inflationary thing that we are seeing broadly, so we are seeing commodity prices moving up. it is very much on the predication that calendar year 2021 will be much better in a growth and gdp perspective than calendar year 2020, so there is a presumption we will see stronger growth dynamics playing out, reflected in the moves and bond yields. the question is how much further

can the dollar go as we see this backdrop playing out? tom: you absolutely nail it in terms of growth prospects. it is the dollar dynamics and oil dynamics as well. jeremy stretch kumutha did in the growth of 2021 -- jeremy aretch, you -- is it just pandemic rebound growth? very goodat is a point. even a rebound from the pandemic growth pessimism of 2020, there is a realization that we are going to have to do the hard yard to take back all of that, or part of that macro destruction that we saw through the course of the last year. we will continue to see that in the context of employment, and that is mostly in the terms of nonfarm today. it will be a series of hard yard to take back from destruction, and over the medium run into

2022 and onwards, we can start to see a more growth oriented backdrop, which is not purely or largely exclusively the rebound potential from the losses we saw through the course of last year. francine: in the fx space, where do you see the most excitement in the year to come? jeremy: i think we are going to see those commodity oriented currencies to continue to perform well, and in the context of the majors in terms of the g3, we are going to see plenty of weakness coming through in terms of uncertainty in terms of some of those majors. i think it is going to be a case of looking for the currencies. i think all is -- of those currencies are going to perform well against the majors. which will struggle somewhat. francine: does renminbi actually move on the back of some of the events that we saw in

washington? because they are going to take this as an opportunity to do more when there is a bit of a political vacuum in washington. jeremy: that is an interesting point in the sense that i think that is one of the contexts of the election process, that they look at china as a net beneficiary of the uncertainties by the political dynamics in the u.s., and the rebound potential that has been much more dynamic and aggressive in terms of china as well. that also has played into the narrative of the recovery, much more entrenched in that part of the world and in that region. i think it is going to be the case that we are going to continue to see the currency gaining broadly throughout 2021 and into 2022. i think we are going to continue to see the dollar moving lower. having said that, we are going to get a divided administration which will not be soft on china, what i think we will not get the knee-jerk more reactive and emotive reactions that of course

have characterized the last four years of the trump administration. tom: jeremy stretch will continue with us, full circle on the dollar this week. the dollar weakness that we had in two dollars of dollars -- two days of dollar strength. i will come back and talk about that with mr. stretch. 6.46, a stunning statistic on the chinese renminbi. with jamesrong glassman, jpmorgan chase. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪

ritika: i am ritika gupta with the bloomberg business flash. credit suisse is set to report a loss in the fourth quarter, setting aside another 850 million dollars to cover potential settlements related to residential mortgage backed securities. that is more than twice the amount credit suisse has suggested last month. boeing has agreed to settle a criminal fraud charge over the paying two737 max by point $5 billion. the justice department accused the plane maker of defrauding the government by concealing information about the jet. two737 max was involved in fatal crashes. china's the overseer of alibaba has -- says alibaba has become a -- they have been

ordered to send a report about the antitrust investigation to an online retailer. alibaba has become the most prominent target of china's campaign against the tech industry. tom: up, up in the equity market, futures up 12, dow futures up 96, the vix a stunning 22.46, seven big figures over the week as well. francine, solid at 40,000. 39,607 on bitcoin. good morning, matt miller in berlin. 10.018%. three hoursgot sleep. i feel well rested. i'm trying tooin, understand it. it is capturing the imagination of fund managers. it did touch $40,000.

i'm also looking at crude oil edging higher. overall we had a good conversation with scott thiel talking about treasury yields of the dollar, erasing gains. if you look at the treasury yield, flat at the moment, but they seem to be range bound. then we also had a conversation with carl bildt, and he was saying, look, the only question that the market really needs to have is whether the trump fourdency was, you know, years out of the ordinary come or whether it is a divided presidency in four years. tom: you have so hit the third rail of questioning right now. francine: i know, and that is the one thing that we will spend more time on. coming up on balance of power, the new york presbyterian hospital president and chief executive. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i don't really see it impacting the need for monetary

policy to support recovery. i don't think we are necessarily going to be back to our goals in short stead. i think this is a journey, not a sprint. francine: that was the cleveland fed president. jeremy, weack to were talking about dollar dynamics in the take and interest rates. is there anything in the u.s. economy you are worried about? if there is a downturn do you see it in jobs first? i know that numbers are a bit sketchy, what do you see elsewhere with consumption? jeremy: consumption is likely to flow out of what happens in the labor market. the labor market will still be the integral factor. if there's a fear about joblessness, that does have an impact on consumer behavior. i think we need to see some

degree of resilience play out in the labor market. that's an interesting dynamic in the context today. we are expecting a small fall in the level of employment. the question is whether the retreat is going to be extended through the first quarter, and perhaps as the vaccine rolls out do we see a degree of optimism kickback in to the market? rebounding to the second and third? francine: are we too optimistic about the vaccine role as? it seems every few weeks we have questions about new strains and if the vaccines work and how long they will last and is to be should? jeremy: there is a risk that we are priced for perfection with the vaccine rollout, we all hope it goes smoothly and that the vaccine can deal with these ongoing strains and mutations which happens with these kinds

of viruses. but i think there is a risk that there could be some uncertainty. we do have this max vaccination rollout in the u.k.. casehis is going to be the that we will potentially get some news that implies that this optimism we see coming through yesterday and this significant move up the yield might be a little preemptive. it might be a case where the market is a little bit priced for perfection, at least in this early stage. francine: -- tom: one final question, we do have breaking news, what's the opportunity here? where do you see big figure moves? about: i think it is all commodity orientation. qe -- kiwi.ie and

that's what i would highlight. .om: jeremy, thank you really quite good on the economics of the moment. there are headlines now from a german bank. we have a wonderful team here. with the credit suisse news bank.ow with the when used you see headlines like form -- is some

if the interesting headlines, commerce bank as they clean up the balance sheet. the time i suggest would blend into one, it's been three to four years we have been talking about possible consolidation. first it was the regulators that did not want to the consolidation and then the share price was too high. when you look at the persistent low interest-rate environment that these european companies and banks have to operate in with the lower growth and the period -- the pressure to give out loans because of covid-19. at some point the pressure gives in. whether that means writing off or consolidating, at some point all of our top up consolidation will come to fruition. it has to. tom: you have the best view of

credit suisse of anyone in media. what is your interpretation of further losses? francine: there was a lot of talk on some of the loans that they gave out. this is directly linked of course to what we heard three to four quarters ago, which is the rmbs case. it's not expecting a fourth-quarter loss linked to that case. i think the main question is if there's anything else to provision. that's the million-dollar question, which i'm sure reporters and the company itself wants to make sure there's not another surprise. francine: -- tom: we call that kitchen sink economy. something about the kitchen sink right now, two european banks with serious news. with our news is ritika gupta. president trump condemned the storming of the

u.s. capitol a day after the storm to capital. of defilinghe mob the seat of u.s. democracy and would now turn his focus to ensuring a smooth, orderly, and seamless transition of power via a capitol police officer has died of injuries suffered when a pro-trump mob storm the building. meanwhile the chief of the capitol police has resigned, the force has come under fire for lack of preparation. president trump is preparing a sweeping list of pardons for his final days in office, it includes senior white house officials, family members, prominent rappers, and possibly himself. the presidents legal power to pardon himself is not made clear in the constitution. coronavirus deaths in the u.s. are likely to contain -- continue at a near record pace through january. according to the cdc they will average 26 months -- 26 deaths a day by the end of the month.

joe biden is inaugurated the death toll is likely to be passed 400,000. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta, this is bloomberg. tom: thank you. it is jobs days in america, but we will look at the various moments of politics, richard is joining us and moving into jobs, we are thrilled that ellen will join us. she has been exceptionally cautious on measured rebounds and gdp. we will look at unemployment across america. please stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

this is bloomberg: surveillance trade i have the business flash. cryptocurrencies are on track, but the biggest surge was about three years ago, the crypto index has rallied roughly 40% this week, it includes bitcoin and other digital coins.

for the first,000 time yesterday. 2017ally is not unlike just before a spectacular crash. simon & schuster has canceled plans to public -- publish a book by josh hawley, citing his connection to the effort to overturn the election of joe biden that turned violent on wednesday. he plans to go to court. cnn coverage of the storming of the u.s. capitol has resulted in the most-watched day in the cable channels history. more than 5.2 million viewers tuned in to cnn on wednesday to see images of the riot. surpassing fox news and -- cnn is owned by at&t. that's your bloomberg business flash. thank you.

how about a chart on bitcoin? this is a normal charge, with logs which show percent change through this is not the bitcoin chart you are used to seeing. it's a look rhythmic chart showing a percent change, slope and even with this, notice the curve on the right side, which is the acceleration of the 40,000 in bitcoin. as ritter come mentioned we saw this in 2017. always look rhythmic, edward vanderbilt is with us. what have you learned? >> i'm actually heartbroken, i had a whole she'll set up about long stateic on the -- along scale chart and you just showed it. this is something we have seen over time, not many asset classes can do that. 33%, i spokericed

to a new investor who went long for the first time before christmas, i checked in to see, and he says it's obscene, the amount of money making. as spectacular as the upside is, the crash is equally spectacular. timing is everything. yougot it right in 2017 made 3000%, if you got it wrong you went down like 80%. timing is everything. and we are starting to see this curving upward on that long scale chart, whether we are setting up for one of those crashes. let's go into the parabolic moment. all you have to know is that we have massive curvature acceleration in bitcoin. , creating thatid acceleration? which institutional force, which category of bitcoin owner is

making for the parabolic move? we have definitely seen some institutional money come into the space, but also small investors that were previously not as tech savvy, we set up a link to a bitcoin exchange, they can now purchase via paypal. tom: i do know that. francine? francine stopped, that's a birthday gift for one of the offspring. francine: matt miller taught me to know about bitcoin long time ago, remember your password. i'm not the best at that. if you have more institutional investors going into bitcoin, is up for bitcoin, up?

>> absolutely not. if you get it wrong you could see something like 2017. and there are new tools that we are seeing like the futures contract, it makes it possible to short. and the last time that bitcoin crashed, it was the futures contract that was actually launched. one thing about the futures market, in a purely speculative , the futures contract is a perfect substitute for the underlying. if all you want is price exposure, this is a perfect substitute. so potentially this could be a venue to bring this down spectacularly. bitcoin mainstream? if it is, doesn't it make a difference? it is in the sense that a

mainstream investor can get access to it. but i do not think that bitcoin is at all systemic. if we see a bitcoin collapse, i don't think we see contagion across asset class, and i don't think the dollar moves on it. so it kinda doesn't matter. in a sense it's mainstream and that it's available to everyone, but not in the sense that everybody should own it and it will impact your portfolio. francine: thank you. also speaks philosophy and maybe we will get some the next time he comes on surveillance. the topspeak about risks for eurasia in 2021, we look at capital riots and what it means for your -- four europe . this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is bloomberg: surveillance. expectingoup is

europe to have a leadership deficit when and lamarcus to parks -- when angela merkel departs. joining us now is our guest, he's the managing director for eurasia group and the managing director for europe. is there a defective transfer of access? >> thank you. it's great to be with you to walk through this risk. i think it hangs on angela merkel finally leaving, not finally leaving to mess to politics in germany, finally leaving the leadership role that she has to factor played -- de facto play for the e.u.. but it's more complex than her leaving. there's also a piece that relates to the french election.

i think we are going to see is her looking inward, towards the reelection, trying to ensure a strong result in september. but when the new german chancellor emerges that's when macron-- emmanuel focuses on his election. crisis,an economic health crisis, security crisis, that's the problem for europe over the next year. we don't get that symbiotic german leadership which has been so important. francine: is there a longer-term problem that will be decided? if covid is not dealt with in the right way, and austerity measures come too soon, are we can have a wave of populism and far-right or far-left leaders? covid is casting a long shadow.

we argan a c that reverberate -- we are going to see that reverberate. it's fertile ground for populism to grow. that's the case. whether it has more effective implementation -- europe has put in place a framework allowing us to deal with the economic fallout of covid. but weather gets implemented thosely, i think questions remain to be seen. tom: it's wonderful to have you with us. we have the washington perspective this week, if we look at the collective grievances or than many anglers of the far-right in america or just the right in america, a conservative voice in america, we could bring it over to europe. frame the grievances and tone of a disaffected right across the many nations in europe? actually in a

pretty interesting situation. if you look at the large countries, the disaffected right , i would argue, is the minority and actually shrinking. keir starmerabout reclaiming the center ground in britain. i think the center is growing, whether that remains to be seen depends on the locked down but the leaders are capable of dealing with unemployment in the economic crisis. politically, the center is arguably growing in the e.u. in a way that is perhaps surprising. you look over through the eurasia group prism in america, is it because we are not doing income substitution or replacement in this crisis like europe? so we get the results like the

shock in washington? mij: yes. there's a very live debate about the e.u. going forward and candidate depend on the u.s.? view thatearly of the they have to go it alone. that reflected through the china deal that was signed at the end of last year. he called it strategical autonomy, europe needs its own geopolitical player and its own voice. in germany the debate is a bit less clear and a bit more divided. but certainly what happened on wednesday in washington gives e.u. leaders a pause for thought as to if they can depend on america going forward or if they need to take more responsibility for themselves. francine: how should europe deal with china? is there a day other because they cannot count on the u.s. is much as they used to do that the

region becomes too close to china? merkel's strategy was to introduce some coherence with anyone with china. because there is a concern that the chinese are picking out the weaker member states, whether that is in central or eastern europe. this is really meant to see a that enables a much broader and deeper conversation with the chinese. this is a kind of initial discussion and attempt by the e.u. to try to have some coherence into the policy. is turkey part of europe? mij: absolutely. -- obviously will be

riskng about the turkey later with the political and economic challenges. dialogue, but not moving meaningfully closer. tom: thank you. it has been a spectacular week, we have a perspective from eurasia group. thank you. risks is not to get distracted, we staggered at 830, and what is believed to be a challenging labor report in the united states. it's amazing to see the deterioration from the november report to this morning's december report. yes, of course you need to put in perspective the various lockdowns, you do wonder

how much of the focus this will give us an this will be able to give us in terms of what the economy is going through, whether it's a couple months blip. but it could definitely move the treasury. tom: jeff rosenberg will be joining us along the morning. asing up, jason is with us j.p. morgan chase has the wonderful ability to get the pulse on the context nationwide. and jim will join us on a challenging jobs report. dow futures up 93, bitcoin, hat , 40,677. ♪

tom: democrats and select

republicans are considering the ousting of the president, mr. to a looks out, 12 days smooth and seamless transition. the clock is still ticking as the virus rages in america. nearly 4000 deaths per day, china locks down a city of 11 million and the clock is ticking for the underemployed and the unemployed of america. but as the unemployment rate really 12% plus? morning, bloomberg: surveillance after an exhausting week, we said thank you to our team in london and new york, particularly in washington for getting to friday. jimave ellen joining us and will come along in a bit. francine, tell us about the interpretation of washington from your london. francine: