>> i'm quite worried about the labor market. >> is weighing on activity. >> we have seen a lot of demand. is going to find its way back to the market. equities have managed to maintain a complete disconnect from the real world. >> the market has started to tell you spending is coming, we will party like it is 1999. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance" is on radio, on television simulcast after an exhausting week. it is friday, jobs date area the story continues in washington.

"the washington post" reports from johns hopkins university and all they have done for us through this pandemic that there were 4000 deaths yesterday in the united states. away from all the news we do, we cannot ignore the fact that this virus rages. lisa: january will be the deadliest month for the coronavirus. on average the expectation is for 2600 individuals every day on average, americans to die from coronavirus. that will mean more than 400,000 people will have died from this pandemic in the united states by the time joe biden becomes president. tom: los angeles hit. a town of 11 million, a city of is in full lockdown, beijing in china. lisa: give this perspective. i saw the statistic. in california, more people died yesterday then all be homicides

of 2019. just taking a look at that. it gives you a sense of the across this pain country. tom: on this jobs data falls right into the american economy. historic brief on this friday. 8:30 am is the u.s. jobs report. on average it is expected to be a gain of 50,000. expects thatnomics to be -70 5000. the first decline since april. vice chair the fed speaking on the council of foreign relations event. i'm willing to see how much accommodation he puts into markets. has been increasing amounts of discussion among fed officials about the potential of tapering bond purchases. chair says it, they

will. president-elect joe biden is introducing key members of his economic team that includes marty walsh of boston. he will be nominated as the labor secretary. he is getting his team together. we see the next presidential agenda being shaped. we still have 12 days. tom: we saw that in the video released by president trump as he looks for a smooth transition. more on that cross surveillance with important voices on washington as well. , you now on this jobs day get lucky and she was scheduled to be with us from td securities. topic of friday, it is an exceptionally strong research flow this morning across surveillance test. priya i need to rip up the script.

is is inflation and the expectations of larger inflation real? is it nothing more than the base effect of oil price change and also the dynamics of the u.s. dollar? standard charter writing on this this morning. is the coming inflation tangible or is it a statistical mirage? priya: great question. i think that is the macro team we started this year. we are keeping it in the race market. pre-covid highs. we look at the inflation, we are still living through a dimensional host. we have a very slow increase in inflation. 2023-2024 thatbe they are getting close to that sector. finding what the markets doing

is really extrapolating. fiscal stimulus, there's a bunch of other factors going in. not really inflation expectations. we still have to see the covid shock behind us. i really think that the inflation market, these effects will kick in. for actual inflation i'm not sure the market is pricing in. do that this weekend. we hope train. what is so important to me is you need to make a calculated bet. are we out over our skis on rising yields? priya: i think there is something to it. we did revise the forecast because of physical stimulus. before the georgia election we were not expecting much more stimulus this year.

expecting more after the new administration comes in. crisis is worsening. that could supply pressure. the fed seems to be changing its tune as well. tapering is not happening until the end of next year. i think interest rates could rise. price and supply, we are looking for 125 on the 10 year. not the biden plan. there is something to the rising rate. so far with all the inflation expectations it will be in there as well. have you ever changed your forecast this quickly in a year? priya: the georgia election,

beyond everything else was a bit of a game changer. the ruud abramowitz shows her face. that was brutal. priyait is not a knock on , who does brilliant research. it is a demonstration of how unusual this week was to start the year with so many game changing events. i found most interesting is your focus on debt supply. the amount of bonds the u.s. would have to sell financing these programs. exactly in the inflation discussion. priya: at the margin stimulus will help growth and consumption. we already had an excess amount of debt ready. committed to this for

a long time. gave that on average. that was adding supply. bill will addulus supply. we have a pretty big demand. that is why we don't think it results in a big increase in inflation or growth. to get funded somewhere in bonds. trade. back to the hope i love that phrase. what level of 10 year yield do you signal a breakout? my guess is it is a lot higher than where we are right now. in terms of the catalyst, the

fuel for the hope trade, where is that level that signals breakout? to 135.f you get close it will be possible to do all of that. that is when real rates will have to really engage. rates are getting close. when what is happening with interest rates -- whatever reasons why, interest rates are so low. pull money away from other asset classes. where you get that breakout you are talking about. that is what i think brand extension comes back on the table. lisa: this morning putting out a ise saying is where it because of where bond yields are. ultimately because of how high

bond yields will go. and how high stocks will let them go. how big of a selloff in stocks will it take before they come attractive investment pieces. is a bit about. it is already so low. expect tatian will fall. hard for that to decline. thank you so much for the assessment this morning. i neglected to do a data check. futures up 14. the levels extraordinary. dow.0 on the nasdaq 100 up almost near 13,000. small caps lag a little bit today. i only did that for jonathan ferro.

yield a 1.0. what do you see on the screen? jonathan: i want to make a clarification of -- lisa: i wasn't trying to point out that a change in forecast was bad. i was trying to point out this has been a formative week in many ways. i have respect for changing. expectation of the year has really rocked the market. tom: edward vander wall joined us from london. will be started talking. by the time he left us that we were at 40,000. 41,000 on bitcoin. lisa: how long did it take to double in value? like a week. you're not seeing a move higher in gold. are you moving overcast? tom: i'm all entry point right

now. look at the dollar reversal. lisa: there is a question of where we are hitting this resistance point. it is jobs day and also news from washington. this is bloomberg. good morning. ritika: president trump is now condemning the u.s. capitol, which happened after he egged on his angry supporters to take action. the president says those demonstrators defiled the seat of american democracy and he promised to pursue a smooth transition to the biden administration. president trump is coming under more pressure. he is taking calls to resign. forward to take constitutional steps forward to force him from office. congressional leaders say pence and the cabinet should invoke the 25th amendment.

mike pence has not responded. another top cabinet member has resigned after cabinet -- after riots at the capitol. therely laid the blame at feet of the president page she said the president's rhetoric was the inflection point for me. transportation secretary e line chapek -- chap quit. she is married to mitch mcconnell. modernity shot would be the third vaccine to get the green light for use in the u.k.. they're pushing to speed up vaccinations because it has been spreading so rapidly. by paying 2.5rge billion dollars for the justice --artment

the 737 max was involved in at two fatal crashes that killed 350 six people. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quick take. house by 2700 journalist and analyst in 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

trump: a new

administration will be inaugurated january 20. my focus turns to a smooth and seamless transition of power. exercises as we heard from the president last night is to go back and look at the track record. we looked at the executive order they had to do with china in trading a listed securities in the new york stock exchange two months ago. ordernow on and executive of june 26. the capital of the united states, emily wilkins, our bloomberg government reporter spending all of her time at the capital. , the president on june 26 gave us and executive order of protecting american monuments, memorials, and statues and combating recent criminal violence. he opened this in the vicinity of paragraph four going after

anarchists and leftists. does the executive order need to be rewritten? emily: it is mostly focused on protecting statues. i think for something like this. defamation of property, you don't need and executive order necessarily to go in and rescue individuals -- arrest individuals who trespass. nightesident said last the law would be brought onto those. a distinct change in tone to what he said on wednesday. the fbi ed d.c. police have made it clear that those involved will face punishment. tom: you have been working the phones from atlanta back to washington. will you look for on this friday? nancy pelosi, house speaker, will be holding a call with members of the house democratic caucus over whether or not they need to impeach president trump for a second

time. the timeline to remove trump from office, that is looking a little bit difficult because you have less than two weeks. impeachment could happen. house democrats already have some articles of impeachment they are gathering signatures on. they are up to 110 signatures in the first hours of asking people to sign on to this. lisa: former cabinet members invoking the 25th amendment. among them, john kelly on cnn. emily: this is something we are watching closely. mike pence would not be on board with the 25th amendment. he is the one who would take power if that was invoked. are going toearing stay on. they're doing this not because

of agreement with president trump here they worry that if they left, they're worried about the good of the country. lisa: there are some things about president trump and think she would be doing in the 12 days remaining. they are expecting him to come out with a list of pardons on january 19. who is advising him? emily: he is talking with his advisers. this is a decision that is made by the president. he is talking about pardoning himself, pardoning his daughter, jared, top advisers like mark meadows. even some celebrities like rapper lil wayne. he is speaking with other people. lawyers to vetted by worry that the pardon could create investigations into obstruction of justice. the pardon is only for federal crimes.

that does not include state crimes. tom: i loved what lil wayne did with the block is hot. i thought it was extraordinary area this is a farce. he is going to pardon himself? what is the tone on capitol hill to that idea? hasn't beenreally done before. there's a lot of questions of whether he could even pardon himself. and if that is -- if there are issues, with his taxes, this could be something where he pardons himself and the state of new york goes cool, we will charge you with this crime. to the weekendt and quite frankly to get to the sunday talk shows. we are thrilled with that project. what do republicans want to do to manage the message. this friday into saturday wrapped around the supplies announcement.

emily: we are seeing republicans put some distance between them and president trump. seeing cabinet officials resign. individuals like former authority general bill barr come out with strong statements against the president and announcing the president. i think you will hear some more talk about the 25th amendment, even though that doesn't seem like something that is feasible at this time. a lot of soul-searching being done as we speak about republicans. lisa: the markets are focused on where we go from here. what are you hearing in terms of the republican willingness to sign off on a $1 trillion package? emily: one of the things we heard it right before the mob began to storm the capital was chuck schumer said his number one priority was going to be the $2000 individual stimulus checks. , they wantat we know a larger stimulus package in general.

something that covers vaccines, state and local funding. something that really targets that aid. tom: the lieutenant governor of the empire state told bloomberg surveillance she and governor cuomo need a cool $15 billion. is that how you get out over a trillion dollars spent. actual bill of republican and democrat states and cities? emily: you are talking about a $2 trillion bill democrats are pushing. democrats have control at this point. there are potential roadblocks with moderate democrats and the need for 60 votes for things to clear certain senate procedural votes. there are other messages democrats could use if they can't get 60 votes. there are republicans who believe more stimulus is needed. tom: thank you so much and congratulations on a wonderful week of reporting in atlanta and

the tragedy we see in washington. i'm so glad she brings up lil wayne. he was never the same after 500 degrees. the third album was great. it didn't have the same intensity as the block is hot. lisa: i have seen you drinking a scotch and listening to lil wayne. when it comes to 11:00 a.m., that is what tom keene does. tom: this part of that you brought up is so important. if you look at the history of many presidents, it is not unusual to pardon a lot of people at this time. lisa: my concern is this is noise. the congress right now has a iny big task ahead of it 2021. we still face a pandemic. we will get in about one hours time with that jobs report. tom: it is jobs day.

as lisa mentioned this is about those statistics. a real slowdown in december is presumed. what is the unemployment rate of america? many people say moving towards 12%. 12%. coming up, ellen - i sent your new prescription to the pharmacy. - any idea how much it will cost? - you have a choice. insurance or goodrx. - i have insurance. - insurance is not what it used to be. people struggle to get their prescription covered and prices keep rising. i recommend goodrx. you get free coupons to save on your prescriptions. - [narrator] compare prices to get the best discounts. - goodrx, smart. - [narrator] stop paying too much for your prescriptions. download the free app today.

♪ week.n extraordinary an extraordinary set of bloomberg surveillances. we thank all of you for watching on television and listening on bloomberg radio. we will get to the jobs report in a moment. we will look at the market right here. there is so much more, including the idea of america with 4000 deaths in one day from a pandemic. on the futures it is green on the screen. dow futures up 80. yield is 1.08%. the dollar reversal, have you been surprised by the short squeeze out of week dollar? absolutely. everybody was on this train. saying maybe we reached the bottom. stronger, 6.4 six

per dollar. it will be fascinating to see those metrics the rest of january. right now, the metrics of the market from the close. you wire to wire. you talk about some of those calls. the market not necessarily rattled by the madness of washing. talk about the individual movers on the day. boeing shares, they have been oscillating between gains and losses. the news here that they are settling that deal. investigation into the 737 max and essentially whether boeing actually hid some of the flaws. boeing will pay $2.5 billion in fines. they will start a compensation fund for victims. a lot of investors think this is good. intentionally putting this to bed. most of the charges have already been accounted for so we will not have much of a financial impact -- should not have much

of a financial impact. the shares that actually dropped about 40% here in the premarket. i'm not sure that's reflected. we don't put that up here because i bought it yesterday. you are picking winners. big cloud day. to do with what is going on. investors shaking it off. about this in the afternoon. lisa: don't interrupt him. romaine: tom could appreciate this. everyone is talking about apple today. the first rule of apple flight club, you don't talk about apple fight club. they put out a press release saying we are working on an apple card. about 30 minutes later they revise that statement to remove references to other automakers.

a few hours later they revise that reference. hyundai shares rise on that. a lot of speculation on rumors that you will have an icar to bring to boot -- bluebird surveillance. tom: is bitcoin going to be at $50,000? romaine: if you are a real betting man i think it could be more towards 70. 41,005 hundred 95. thank you so much. right now on stocks, she has been fabulous, ellen zentner from morganoins us stanley. what is the single or distinction of the worsening job economy that we see? ellen: the singular distinction is how long people will be unemployed.

statistics show the longer you are unemployed is the probability to coming back from labor market rises. difficulting to this winter where some people who came back to work are going back home again. it is all that more discouraging. it makes the probability higher that they don't get fully employed again. tom: my recollection is the university really provided academic leadership on the efficacy of stimulus checks. democratic president, democratic senate, democratic house. do the $2000 or 3000 dollars stimulus check help your labor economy? or do they need to find a different way? ellen: it does help, absolutely. the more that we could ease the while they are unemployed high,d prices are very

anything we could alleviate is good. putting more of it towards unemployment benefit programs could help those that lost a job rather than just check the household. i would wait those differently. today and noted spent. it could be spent later on. you could just provide more of a floor. that idea that you are talking about that the more effective method 90 job training. the top 20% of income earners account for more than half of all consumer spending. powering then economy. how much has that lower half continued to be left behind? it is interesting. was soes act last year

large in terms of income replacement for those that lost ups, the savings rate build for the first time. typically it is only to build savings. unusual in that coming out of lockdown was spending was powered by lower income groups. that ended in july. they spent down the savings over the next couple of months. now the bottom has really fallen out of low income spending. the risk is you need a broad-based participation across all income groups to really be confident. of theat the whim wealthy. as soon as that pent-up demand has been met, then you run the risk of consumer spending again.

, a really of the day powerful unemployment benefit program in order to continue those benefits or expand those benefits while they are looking for work is the way we build that bridge between economic amage and what could be better day in the back half of the year. it is important with policies continue through the middle of the year. i would look for more extensions to come. aboutthis question long-term economic rates, some people are arguing this time is different. people can't find those jobs. they are back online once we have a vaccine. are you sympathetic to that view? long-term unemployment is different in this cycle? we will see a step back in a good chunk of those.

some of that will be reduced quicker than we normally see. here thatn element could turn to permanent job loss. some of that is think about someone who is unemployed. they would not have found work during this time. being out of a job more than a year by the time vaccines are disseminated. you have a chunk of the population that does not come back to work. i think that will be elevated in a still low unemployment rate that we expect by the end of 2022. that is still higher than where we work free covid. -- where we were free covid. the huge theoretical structure of our inflation expectations. oil surgeon, dollar weaker. is that what this is about?

is it legitimate inflation out there six months or six years out? been pushing the idea that inflation would be higher than people think. we have been pushing that since may of last year. have inflation, reaching 2% by the end of this year. sustaining above that for another year after that as far as our forecast. people should not be complacent about what held inflation back will be the same factors that hold inflation down going forward. we feel very strongly in this belief. targetinge inflation -- investors have been reluctant for quite some time to embrace that. it has taken these grounds after rounds of fiscal stimulus.

in orderocratic sweep for investors to suddenly decide inflation is an actual possibility and put those trades on. minutes weout 50 will get that jobs report. how pivotal is that figure when it comes to the u.s. labor market in 2021? ellen: one way i think it is important is we could see a difficult winter coming. we could see job growth was going to fall off quite a bit. data is nothing like that that could get congress acting. we got that package in december that takes unemployment benefits that were due to expire and extended them into this year. of -- if another round we see another round of bad jobs wellts, then you could as keep that going and extending it

further into this year. we need to see the reality of how difficult it is for people in the services sector right now. that will help congress do the right thing. tom: greatly appreciated on this jobs day. she is with morgan stanley. we are beginning to see the discussion and choices of language. is still a shock to see the language. a senator from nebraska moments ago on the radio -- it is extraordinary to see the language where the senator says incited u.s.mp capitol riots. how much does this in splinter the republican party? what does it mean for his leadership going forward when it comes to his political future. some people saying it calls into

question his ability to run again. the 25th amendment, maybe in the zeitgeist that drifts away, the idea of a double-barreled impeachment by the house and the difference now is a possible conviction by the senate versus where we were the last time around. lisa: i don't want to get into the political back-and-forth. that is something that will be discussed across a lot of circles. this is happening amid a pandemic that is taking more lives than most leading causes of death. i was looking to comparisons in the number of people who have died from covid. the idea that people will be losing their jobs, it shows that pain. how much does this distract people from what needs to get done? seenthe grimness we have linked to the pandemic really front and center in los angeles as well.

coming up, the gentleman from arkansas will join us on the chaos of his republican party. from new york, please stay with us on limburg radio, bloomberg television worldwide, good morning. ritika: with the first word news, a day after he urged his angry supporters to take action president trump condemned the storming of the u.s. capitol of president accused the mob defiling the seat of u.s. democracy. he said he would now turn his focus to ensuring a smooth, orderly, and seamless transition. coronavirus debts are likely to maintain a record pace through january. the u.s. will end the month averaging about 2600 deaths a day. by the time joe biden is inaugurated january 20, the nation's death toll is likely to surpass 400,000. local news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quick take.

powered by 2700 journalist and analyst in 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the president has committed an unspeakable assault on our nation and our people.

i'd joined the democratic leader on calling the vice president to remove this president by immediately invoking the 25th amendment. acthe vice president do not , congress may be prepared to move forward with impeachment. speaker pelosi moving for the discussion. it will be an eventful friday. the secretary of transportation, secretary of education resigning this morning. ofwill speak to french hill the little rock, arkansas. a consistent republican voice giving us conversation. , there seems to be a divide. the language the senator from nebraska used compared to the senator from missouri and senator from texas. together abring republican party to be in minority with president biden.

? at this moment, i think all of the leaders in both parties on both sides of the aisle need to focus on our peaceful transfer on january 20. we need to not add to the brinksmanship on the 25th amendment. or that we saw from senator cruz or senator hawley on this force narrative that we will have a different outcome on january 6. never in the constitution. it was never going to happen. the rhetoric since the election contributed to the disaster we saw here on the afternoon of january 6 were people w ere misled. tom: it is all most a week

party. not so much associated with arkansas but mostly to the east in kentucky. party with minority this great fracture between ted cruz and ben sasse? rep. hill: we need to remind ourselves of what the republican tenants are and go back to advocating for those. limited government, limited scope and tax burdens on the american people. equal justice under the law. more opportunity for people of all incomes. a strong, robust national security. senator cruz speak passionately about it. i've heard senator sasse speak passionately about it. that's what the republican party needs to get out and advocate for. step away from the election. are you happy with the way

they have handled the rollout of the coronavirus vaccine? vaccine will go down in history. this development from late january until the rollout is one of the great global health initiatives. the cares act and $10 billion for coronavirus pandemic vaccine development. the direction of the fda, i used to work on that. it is a success story. the rollout in the manufacturing of it i think has been impressive. it is essential workers and our elderly population. you all were talking about incidences of death. again, it is concentrated in the older age groups. they are more vulnerable to the

coronavirus. after essential workers there's no doubt, that is where the vaccine should be focused. true.that is the states have really been the one in charge. only one third of the vaccine has been deployed. they contacted their pharmacies and their doctor saying how do i get vaccines? rollouttrally organized plan that would've smoothed out some of these kinks? rep. hill: it possibly could have been better. we have never done this before. the logistics, getting the vaccine with the private sector reduced, approved, and shift. in arkansas, speaking to our governor, we are generally pleased with our distributions. we are working hard to get that out to the people who need it

first. the storage has been a challenge. everybody recognizes that. particularly in the pfizer vaccine. that has limited distribution. the moderna vaccine goes out to more rural counties. that i think will expand the vaccine faster. tom: to get back to the politics of the moment. we consider the two gentlemen from vermont maybe we'll have chairmanships within the new senate. perhaps the democrats will manage to the middle. that seems to be how they won that time around. how does the republican party manage to the middle? rep. hill: another good point. this is a center-right country. to both parties. they both have a primary challenge from the left in the democratic party and the right i guess you could say the more right in the republican party.

ouro that by focusing on basic tenants that i went on a moment ago. do. is what we have to more education and communication with our primary voters about what the republican party's goals are. why are we being elected? why do we run? this is so important because there is a social overlay of policy and issues. how do you combine those forward to 2022 and 2024 and when? i think we won with our message of what we said was our commitment to america in 2020. we didn't have a single incumbent lose. we have a diverse, aggressive group of new members in the house. particularly in the biden

administration, not governed from the center with a divided senate and a divided house. have a pleasant weekend. lisa: thank you. lisa, your observation? futures up 11. i guess we are making money in the market. lisa: we? have you found an entry point? tom: i looked at the weather. it is raining like three straight days in capri. he's writing a book. lisa: he's drinking tea. what you raised about expectations was really key. how much is this hope and how much is it reality? how much will additional stimulus really do for the prospects going forward versus changing the near-term prospect? tom: this is a key received -- research point. something we could drive forward looking at the supply and demand

of american economies. daniel with the best original labor and economic project of 2020. we get a labor update. tv, is coming up on radio, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i am worried about the labor market and i think economists are. >> the current wave of infections is weighing on activity. >> we have seen a lot of demand destruction. >> there is demand from consumers and that will find its way back to the market. >> the federal reserve will get nervous. >> managed to maintain a disconnect from the real world. >> the market is telling you spending will come and we will party like it is 1999. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance".