francine: nancy pelosi says the house will move to impeach president trump again unless mike pence invokes the 25th amendment to remove him from office. media sites shut down the president's account. on. indices hit records friday. good morning everyone, welcome

to bloomberg surveillance. there's quite a lot going on after the week that was. and funeralsests other people who died at the capital last week. the focus currently on the markets. we will get treasuries to see whether what we saw in terms of the treasury yield giving an impact on what markets will do this week. ,ooking at the dollar rising most stocks dipping. ofders wing the implications higher yields. that's get to the bloomberg first word news. the u.k. says its coronavirus vaccine rollout will accelerate several opening of regional hubs and conference centers. the health secretary says the country is on board to meet its

target of 200,000 vaccinations every day. the german house ministers out of the running to succeed angela merkel. his goal is to become deputy chairman of the ruling cdu. a potential springboard to being candidate for chancellor at the next election. the trump administration is removing decades of restrictions on how a officials interact with taiwan -- on how officials interact with taiwan. the island is to factor independent but beijing considers it part of china. investigators in indonesia have found the site were boeing's passenger jet crashed into the java see on saturday.

it reduced the likelihood of a terror -- teams are pulling up debris from decades-old model carrying 62 people. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. gerrans, this is bloomberg. francine: thank you. president trump and his advisors are expected to travel to texas to highlight what he believes is one of his biggest compliments, the wall his administration built on parts of the border. the president is planning at least one more round of pardons senior democrats say they will move to impeach president trump for the second time just over a year unless the vice president and cabinet remove him using the 25th amendment.

let's start off with impeachment or the 25th amendment. how likely is it something happens? sick they are ahead with this resolution calling on vice president mike pence to invoke the 20th amendment -- 25th amendment. they are expecting an answer within 24 hours. if they don't get an answer, he's indicated he doesn't think it's the right way to go. they will then proceed with the article of impeachment and that could get a vote as early as wednesday. it has nearly a majority of representative supporting it. no doubt it would pass. the real question is what happens in the senate and it looks like they won't consider it until after biden's inauguration and the real problem is biden does not want this to interfere with his first

100 days in office paid there's a lot to consider confirming his cabinet, getting additional stimulus passed and the question is will they take it up later after trump has left office as a way of rebuking him and perhaps barring him from federal office in the future. saying we aretory expecting president trump to be defiant in the next nine days. what could he do? pardons, which is likely he will proceed with pardoning a whole range of people, possibly members of his family. there's been this talk of pardoning himself. issueld perhaps try to some executive orders, perhaps taking on these tech companies that have banned him from twitter and facebook, possibly

,oing something on section 230 of the waiver social media companies have. whether or not that would be effective to take on social medias in a meaningful way is unclear. worry aboutt real the next nine days and what his supporters might do. therewitter ban him from platform they said they had already seen evidence on social riot there was another potentially planned for january 17 and i think there is concern how the inauguration will pan out and whether it will be peaceful. one would expect after last wednesday's mob attack on the capital that security will be extraordinarily tight, but it's a very tense situation over the

next nine days. are you looking out for? so many people have resigned from president trump's entourage. who is he listening to? very is now down to a small circle of his advisors who are left. staff.adows is chief of he is looking at potentially an impeachment defense that does not include the names that defended him during the last impeachment. it's been mentioned rudy giuliani would perhaps defend him. he does not have the range of lawyers set up to come to his defense. he is looking like a rather stance.

obviously his family, jared kushner and just daughter of anke. he does look isolated. you so much, our stephanie baker there. as facebook and twitter ban users for supporting the violent including capital president trump himself, downloads and search for a less restrictive social media app called parler. in an effort to prevent further organizing, google and apple deleted parler from their app stores. with internet ecosystem dominated by players, the parler app has no chance of survival without access to these mainstream channels. expert on now is an social media. always great to speak to you. we talk about the day of reckoning for social media companies. limiting freedom of speech or is it the way forward? i think it is all the above.

they deftly get attacked for taking editorial decisions when in the past they've said they might not be able to do that or might not be willing to for other types of content. on the other hand had they not moved to act they would have continued to be criticized for allowing the president or other people with large platforms continue to incite violence and break the platforms own policies. i do think also it's the way forward. think we will continue to see this. i think the large tech companies will have to act with responsibility, they will have to make decisions and especially with high-profile users who use their platform in their ways against their policies. will trump go after the social media companies in

his last week in office? >> i'm sure he will try. he's always been a really vocal critic of amazon. he doesn't like jeff bezos is such a strong holding over the washington post. he's gone on record before and criticized apple and google for various points during his presidency when he agrees with policy or decision they've taken in terms of where to have factories or open offices and the like. it would not surprise me at all that in the coming days he will increase rhetoric. he had already tried to get back on twitter by tweeting from other accounts which immediately resulted in those tweets being deleted because that flies in the face of twitter's policy.

he would say he's is having his platform taken away. of course he sits next to a press office, he continues to have a big megaphone and he will continue to be critical of large tech companies. francine: we see what happened over the last six days. how will social media companies change? is this a one-off or the new normal? >> i think it is the new normal and i think what's interesting is even before this past week would happen on capitol hill, you saw social media companies already slightly changing tech. the pandemic has been really illuminating because for so long the social media companies said they wouldn't be able to really withhold and moderate content to the extent a lot of policymakers thought they should.

once you have the pandemic and see misinformation being spread about the virus and about vaccines, you do see them taking action and saying listen this information is going to be harmful to the public, we have a responsibility to take that down. and they started doing that. what happened with capitol hill and the president is a bit of a culmination of that and i don't think it will go away. i do think they will face louder and louder cries to actually really moderate what's on their site. i think that is short of behaving like a publisher where they choose or make editorial decisions about only what's on the services and they already do exercise some editorial responsibility by having highlights in promoting certain content. in terms of being able to control everybody says i think we will be somewhere in the middle of those.

what is the chance president trump or those around him figure out a way of having a social media platform that is far-reaching that will push their views? >> that is hard to predict. i would find it really unlikely. it's really propelled these platforms is initially unfettered access for a large diversity of views. balance that with not letting harmful extreme content are ones that incite violence or harm to people on their platforms. if some of the president trump would start a platform for discourse i think it would be pretty clear what kinds of topics or what sort of angles he would take. if that platform was going to be welcoming. it could have the possibility of

being successful if they could bring together a tech team. the intention is slightly different than what the larger social media platforms have already achieved. francine: some great insight into how the social media companies operate in the future. up the global advisor senior partner. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this is bloomberg

surveillance. i'm francine lacqua. is share price of twitter down some 6.1%. following the permanent ban on president trump. evolves.ee how this bannednt trump now permanently from twitter and temporarily from facebook. european markets are trading slightly to the downside. president-elect joe biden's push for a few -- for huge fiscal aid prayed joining us now is the head of fx strategy paid thanks for coming in. this concern about what treasuries are doing. what is trajectory for dollar given that. it's clear the pickup and

u.s. yields has been linked to consolidation in the bear run lower. it's a little bit risk off to start the week, that also has some support for the dollar. as long as the yield gains are temporary and don't extend much, this is more of an opportunity for dollar bears to get involved again. the dollarooking for to weaken barring some crazy accident across asset markets. the dollar will still trade is a safe haven in those volatility events. how does it impact treasuries? the link to the u.s. yields running higher is anticipation of fiscal stimulus it doesn't have to be dollar support at all.

yields -- we are seeing increasingly negative yield rates. also because as we saw with the november trade data and the trends, the more it stimulates the more it feeds external deficits, who is going to want to offset the treasury issuance from abroad, a few people will. that is the story that drives the dollar lower. is this the next frontier? something we spend more time on? proper global a reflation, currency should be well-positioned. part of the exercise has to be to wind down the debt mountain. and you wind that down with negative real interest rates. multiples -- the weaker dollar will certainly help as well.

it's just that a lot of this is rather priced in. we are getting to the other side of that starting within a quarter. we all have to hope this turns out very well. the market is rather pre-positioned. there are certainly more potential to come from a durable reflation trade in the next cycle. francine: if you look at some of the consumer prices in china, are they on better footing in terms of the economy or will we see it more stable? quite stable and quite strong . i expected to stay at the strong end of that basket. you've china enjoying the fiscal stimulus from the markets

especially from the u.s.. of runninghe luxury a slider -- slightly tighter policy. it allows them to do some deleveraging. if you are looking at with the occasions are for the exports. a strong and stable currency as we look at how the u.s. china relationship shapes up under a biden administration. longer-term,g key of this ongoing risk of a decoupling and what that will mean for china trying to launch its own credible alternative to the dollar as a currency trade the weaponization long-term in the u.s. financial system. a lot of questions for all that in the mix. coming up later on, we hear from the cleveland fed

president. she talks about treasury. this is bloomberg. ♪ so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business.

francine: let's check on the markets because it's the second working week of january and we have quite a lot of news going on.

house speaker nancy pelosi singh there will try to impeach donald trump, unclear whether that will go ahead or not. the dollar isas in focus after a buying frenzy swept global markets. mood, as in a cautious dollar climbing against its major peers. european stocks pulling back from a 10 month high. sliding is much as 21% over towardsnd monday $32,389. as u.s. equities hit another record high, how should investors be positioned to make the most of the rally. .e discuss that and plenty more ♪

francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london. let's get to the bloomberg first

word news. here's leigh-ann gerrans. senior democrat say they will move to impeach president trump for the second time in just over a year unless vice president pence and the cabinet remove him using the 25th amendment. house speaker nancy pelosi says lawmakers will act with urgency after the storming of the u.s. capitol by a pro-trump mob. some of wall street's biggest politicalstopping contributions after the mob on capitol hill. j.p. morgan is planning a six-month suspension to both republicans and democrats. citigroup is temporarily halting all political contributions for the current quarter. britain is significantly less attractive as a location for international business because of brexit. but compared with other

ituntries it is still -- says that u.k. has slipped behind the u.s. and its ranking but remains ahead of the rest of the g7. apple and google are removing social media platform parler from their app stores, and amazon will nomogram host it on the cloud. access to the website appears cut off after midnight in california. after last week's storming of the capitol in washington. as part of far-right groups using it as an alternative. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: 2020 took investors on a wild ride, with 2021 shaping up to do the same as equities continue to hit record highs and

treasury yields climb on expectations of a global recovery. as the world returns to a new normal, where should investors put their money? global chiefw is investment officer for private banking. we have had an incredible and awful, difficult week in u.s. politics. how does that play out into markets? >> i think the most important is to look at what is coming ahead, and what we will be having is next week there is going to be a new president, the new president have as -- has a very clear agenda. he has a very clear policy. much more importantly, he also a majorityority, so in the senate but also in majority in the congress. so all of that makes for a powerful new u.s. government. francine: what does that mean for your investment strategy

going forward? you have a great note with some of the themes that you are looking at, but what is your top play for 2021? lars: the 40 themes. secondst is china, the one is debt levels, and the third one is the move that accelerated coded into the digital world, and the fourth is csg, so starting with china first, china cannot be ignored anymore. international investors need to be allocated to that region. it is not an emerging market anymore. it is considered an emerging market, but in our view china has emerged. if you look google and apple who their biggest competitors are in the technology sector, they will say it is chinese companies. companies, and china needs that in the equity side.

china,e: if you look at how much of a new change in trade between the u.s. and china are you expecting? so sure that joe biden bill not lead a similar policy towards china than president trump, just in a different way? lars: i would agree with that. i think joe biden is going to continue to have a fairly tough toicy towards china, similar what trump has, but there is a huge difference. two key differences. the first one, his policy is going to be far less erratic than what we had from the previous government, so we will tariffs being installed overnight. it is going to be a policy which is going to be much more consistent first. the second point, which is very different, remember that the trump government very much took

a lot of unilateral actions. the bike government we believe is going to be much more in tune with this traditional allies -- europe, japan -- in order to formulate a common policy towards china. francine: what do you do with debt? you look at china and you are also looking at corporate and emerging debt. should we worry about it less than some people? lars: no, i think where we should worry and where many investors are worried about is very much european sovereign debt, for instance. in the past 30 years you were able to get a positive yield with european sovereign debt, investing in european government bonds. first you went to france and germany, then you had to go to spain, italy, or even greece. nowadays, with all of the programs which have been put into place, with all of the

monetary stimulus, you do not get any positive yield on that debt anymore. and therefore investors will have to see and find some new sources of yield in order to be able to compensate it. yield aresources of more difficult to find. emerging market debt, for instance, is one sort of yield where you will be able to get for the same credit quality stock positive yields. but i'm also thinking of corporate debt or hybrid debt where you are being compensated. francine: when you talk about digital technologies and their corollary security, do you also look at bitcoin? lars: we are not really thinking about bitcoin as such. what we are looking at is the adoption of new technology which was really boosted by covid. we are allile fixated for the right reasons on covid, what we need to also see is that covid has increased

dramatically the adoption of digital technologies to a group that has never used digital technologies in the past. if you look at, for instance, the group of 60 years and older, you see that 70% of france, 70% of the transactions of e-commerce have been done for the first time since covid. that is post-covid. that is very much what we are looking at. it has been incredibly boosted by covid. --ing said that, there is there is the flipside of the coin that is cybersecurity. you have more and more people using digital technologies because of covid. people who have never used it in the past, people who are less in tune with cybersecurity and therefore will also be very strong investments within cybersecurity in order to keep the system safe. francine: esg was the biggest

winner of 2020. will it win even more in 2021? lars: i think esg is just at the these trends. the reason for that, first of all, the biggest economy in the -- thethe u.s., has biden government has been putting esg at the forefront of its program. usually what happens is when the u.s. decides to go into one direction, strategically into one direction, they tend to catch up quickly. i would not be surprised if u.s. can be a leader in esg technology. but also, they should look at all of the programs which have been put into place in order to boost the economies. in china, in the u.s., be it in

japan or europe. they all have one common denominator, and that is esg. francine: thank you so much, lars kalbreier. coming up, the race against time. the u.k. ramps up vaccine rollout as cases surge and hospitals struggle to cope. more on that next, and this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: let's get to the bloomberg business flash leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: hi, francine. the boom, profit from be prepared to lose all of your

money -- that is the message from the u.k. financial watchdog. the financial conduct authority says financial assets linked them -- links to them are high-risk for consumers. of consumerhe lack protection. a group of hsbc shareholders are asking the bank to cut it support to the fossil fuel industry. share action, a u.k. nonprofit, is coordinating the plan, which is said to be backed by a group. they are asking hsbc to publish a strategy to reduce its exposure to fossil fuel assets and set targets in line with the paris agreement. elon musk is bringing his broadband system to the u.k. the world's just man aims to rollout superfast broadband by sending thousands of satellites into earth's orbit. he is testing a service in north

america. the approval allows much in the british broadband market to compete with mainstream providers. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine? francine: u.k. is ramping up its vaccine rollout with the opening of seven regional centers this week. that comes as the nation's hospitals have struggled to cope with surging cases. it is a race against time to administer vaccines which the u.k. says it is making good progress on. t the good news is that over 200,000 people a day is significant progress. those we need to reach most in the over 80's, we have now vaccinated around a third of all 's, so very good progress. francine: across the channel, european countries are urging the pushing of moderna's vaccine today. a reporter in brussels joins us.

what explains the lack of vaccination when you compare to europe -- when you compare europe to the u.k.? >> it is a good question. when you have people vaccinated on a daily basis, the europeans are nowhere near the european market, very fraud from it. now that we have debt very far from it. near the european market, very far from it. thearticular, with regulation, that is why the european regulator, the commission, is coming under big pressure to treat this as an emergency. the u.k. has three vaccines, we only have two. was also a question as to why the european mission is buying vaccines such as the sanofi one when they have not been approved. they are trying to remedy that. they have doubled the amount of pfizer doses to 300 last week. now we have 360. the big lag is creating big problems for the europeans.

they are aware that they are behind and they need to speeded up. they are hoping that the procurement is going to get better and we are going to get meet some of and the distribution issues when it comes to distribution to the countries. francine: why is the u.k. going so fast? maria: there are two issues that come into play. vaccines andn of the approval of vaccines as an emergency matter. they have three vaccines usually two weeks before the europeans get to that. they have been good until now in terms of setting up the logistics, and the distribution centers -- when people can go and get the vaccines by the thousands? it has not really happened e 27. the that is the only place in it has happened at this point, germany.

they were able to distribute that very quickly. the europeans have a big portfolio for vaccines but only two have been approved and that is becoming a problem now. francine: maria tadeo, our reporter in brussels. coming up, bubble warnings are strings of flare as retail investors flock to bitcoin and bullish options. we discuss that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london. many fed presidents have focused on quality and diversity both in the wider world and their own profession. the field of economics is said to be more diverse, so it represents the public. an important field. it touches everyone's lives -- policymakers make policies that touch everyone's lives. business people higher, make hiring decisions that touch everyone's lives. because it is such a broad field

and he really is important for everyone, i think it is really important that we have a very diverse group of people going into economics. i don't know how you feel, but my own feeling is that we could do better along this dimension. >> so much of it is also role modeling. is great that young women can look to the likes of janet yellen and say there are roles at the very top for women in economics globally. was that the case when you were rising through the ranks? wereou have models that more? >> i did not feel a lack of it because i had a lot of men who help to me. that is the other thing i think it is important to realize. we don't want to wait until it is diversified to say now we have merck role models. -- to say that we have role models. we are going to have to rely on

men to help women come and that is happening now. that is a great thing. you can see it happening in the field, the meetings, like the session i was in. some of the research is this work are not all women. there are a lot of males that are interested in diversifying the field, too. the other reason we really care is that if you want the field of economics to be growing and to be taking on new challenges and innovating and using new methods and interest in new questions, you need diversity. the office will be a stagnant field otherwise and will die out. have seen that in other kinds of disciplines. so it is really important that we not think of this as just women helping women. it's got to be everyone helping to diversify the field, and certainly with minorities, you don't have very many african-american, black economists. they are just not going into the field, and we need to do better

there as well. aboutk at the fed we have 700 phd economists, and we higher a lot more bachelors and masters degrees. have a vester's -- a vested interest to be diverse because we represent the public, we work for the public, and it is really all areasthat we have represented. it is just diverse decision-making is much better decision-making. francine: that was the cleveland fed president, loretta mester. toail managers are rushing cash in. riskyhe market's most part, bitcoin is taking awful tub joining us is dani burger. good morning. -- joining us is dani burger. what warnings are we hearing from marketing to verse? dani: a lot of the concern above all around aspect of the market

that are retail driven. this is not a new story, we herded around the second quarter of last year as well. when we see bitcoin hitting new records, you get this concern that there is going to be a big fallout, days like today when we have seen bitcoin fall significantly. but it is not just bitcoin that we are seeing. -- a lot of people are saying that call options are a much used tool by retail investors then is perhaps concerning. last week alone we saw the fourth and fifth biggest day in terms of volume when it comes to bullish call options, and these do tend to be the shorter dated individual, small block call options that are really hallmarks of the sort of robinhood trader crowd. but just because you have these corners, these warnings does not mean that entire market is doomed. bank of america has a checklist that helps them determine whether or not the market is a bear market, and 67% of that

checklist said, yes, it is indeed a bear market. so not everything is full of exuberance. the concern is things like tech or tesla, for example, when you get sort of the day traders that are really enjoying or really buy up these sorts of securities. francine: who is behind this speculative rally? dani: certainly retail is behind it as we have been discussing. after the call options being traded now are in small lot signs, but it is not just retail anymore. when you get a market where there is so much momentum behind these various assets, you get the institutional players starting to participate, because in a way they have to, or they at least cannot that against it at the moment because they lose a lot of money. goldman sachs has a basket of the most shorted stocks in the u.s. market, and at 10% yesterday -- if you were shorting some of these names that you think will not do well,

that has a lot of retail interest behind it, you are going to feel the pain. so in this way, even if you are not participating with it come you cannot necessarily bet against it unless you are willing to take a big drawdown at the moment for what you hope would be a bigger payoff in the future. francine: dani burger with some of the latest market moves. let's get you up-to-date with what you need to watch out for this week. it is central bank heavy. today and tomorrow we have policymakers on negative interest rates, coronavirus, and the annual j.p.morgan health care conference kicks off today with dozens of biotech and pharma companies giving updates. we heard from a flu of -- from a slew of fed presidents, including robert kaplan. on wednesday, christine lagarde on the u.k.e ua -- economy post-brexit and post-covid. on friday, wall street lenders kick off her earnings season. we get results from j.p.morgan,

citigroup, and wells fargo. this is what the markets are looking at today. after a buying frenzy swept across global markets last week, investors starting monday in a cautious mood. dollar climbing against all of its major peers. european stocks are pulling back from a 10 month high. if you look at s&p futures, also dipping, and bitcoin prices cratered, sliding to as low as $32,389. in the next hour, tom keene joins me out of new york. we will talk trump and possible impeachment vote. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: nancy pelosi says the house will move to impeach president trump again unless mike pence invokes the 25th amendment to remove him from office. there are nine days left in his term. big tech's trump ban. social media sites from twitter to facebook shut down the president's account. right wing alternative parler gets deplatformed. and the stock rally hits pause. u.s. indices hit records on friday but look set to slide today. is the bear steepening in the u.s. yield curve giving investors cold feet? good morning, everyone, and it is monday, the second working week of january. this is "bloomberg surveillance." we look at politics, a big move in treasuries, now talking to a lot of investors, figuring out whether it means we could see a correction elsewhere. tom: i like the way you say pause in the markets. that exactly describes it. there is