tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg January 12, 2021 4:00am-5:00am EST
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francine: mike pence signals he will work with president trump as the house moves on impeachment. trump will resign. the fbi warns of protests ahead of joe biden's inauguration. europe heads for double-dip recession. prospectsuts growth for 2021, boris johnson warns he may lock -- titan lockdown rules. chief executive reiterates support for ralph hamers.
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welcome to "bloomberg: surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. markets are trading sideways. not a huge deal to talk about but indications of what could move markets, central banks, a big week for central banks and ,lobal stock markets stabilizing after losses yesterday. investors, feeling more confident about the economic recovery and vaccine rollout, in some cases, to buy the dip. 36,000,climbing above energy and travel shares among the top gainers in europe. but get it first word news with leigh-ann gerrans. u.k. may need to titan lockdown restrictions if people don't follow the rules. that's the latest warning from boris johnson, saying complacency about the disease is misplaced. he's risked undermining his own appeal with a seven mile bike
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ride across london. health secretary matt hancoc pfizer and biontech output by more than 50%, producing 2 billion doses this year. the vaccine is intended to begin -- beginning in two doses, 21 days apart, but some countries, including the u.k. have elected to stretch out the time between shots in an effort to vaccinate even more people. italy's governing coalition is at risk of falling apart. the former prime minister renzi is continuing pulling two ministers out of the government. his centrist italy alive party only controls a handful of lawmakers but the prime minister just that they -- prime minister conti needs their support to command a majority in the senate. the move could throw the country into fresh turmoil. hey pro ball coach bill belichick has turned down an offer to receive the presidential medal of freedom.
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he had agreed to receive the honor, though that was before last week's riots at the capital. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine: to our top story and house democrats have launched impeachment proceedings against president trump and a vote could take place wednesday unless vice president pence removes him. for the first time since the storming of the and haveast week pledged to work together until the end of the term. eight days until trump goes and it could be a boisterous or difficult eight days. what are you expecting? heeding the fbi at week ahead of the
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inauguration. obviously, it looks like this article of impeachment drawn up by the house does have support of a majority, so why would expect that could go ahead on wednesday. the real question now is what happens in the senate with republican senate leader mitch mcconnell refusing to bring the senate back to consider the article of impeachment and started trial until january 19. that means the senate will have to possibly consider it after biden is sworn in and biden does not want his first 100 days departed -- diverted by these proceedings. p1 his cabinet sworn in, a new stimulus package to be passed, and now, it looks like the
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senate democratic leader chuck schumer is considering whether he might be able to do both at the same time. half considering impeachment and the other half, considering the cabinet. it is uncertain how this will play out, but there are growing calls for impeachment, some kind of response to what happened on wednesday. republicans seem to want to pursue something like censure, but that seems toothless really considering what happened on wednesday. thecine: stephanie, even if senate convenes on impeachment post the inauguration, is there a chance they get behind impeachment? stephanie: i don't think you need -- you need to thirds of the senate to convict in an impeachment trial and that means you would need about 17 republicans to back it and it does not look like there are 17 republicans ready to break ranks with trump to do that, so even
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if they do proceed, i think support for that is tenuous. it is extraordinary, given what happened, however, that there has not been more republicans backing such a move. it does raise questions about impeachment as a check on presidential power. is it really -- does it mean anything anymore? trump does still have a stronghold on the republican party despite what you've seen this week. even u.s. companies saying they will not provide donations to republicans who try to block biden's electoral college vote confirmation. we are in mary times. is there -- we are in extraordinary times. if there are more protests this week, that could perhaps put
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further pressure on republicans to act. francine: why are republicans or certain republicans not ready to act? do they worry about division in society if we have a second impeachment trial or are they standing with the president because they think what he's done is not wrong or are they standing with him because they think he still holds power post january 20? stephanie: well, i think they are saying this is not trump's fault. he may bear some responsibility but ultimately, the actions on wednesday they claim do not 's "make america great" movement. however, i do think they are concerned and worried about support in theed republican ranks that if they go against trump on this and back impeachment, they could have them mount a challenge to
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the next time they have to run for office in a primary challenge, for instance. indicated 45% of republicans backed the armed revolt in washington, so that shows how much of a hold trump does have on the republican party, and i think the real issue facing the republicans is that he could run again in 2024 and with that, he does hold sway over the republican party for the next four years. francine: thank you so much. our senior writer stephanie baker following u.s. politics closely. ubs sticks by its chief executive. weber on why he remains confident in routalph hamers'ability. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: economics, finance, and politics. this is "bloomberg: surveillance ." i'm francine lacqua in london. let's get to the bloomberg business flash. is fuelingvolatility concern the bubble may be about to burst. 26% sundaymuch as and monday, its biggest two-day drop since march, wiping out 185 billion dollars in value since friday, more than 90% of the market cap of companies on the
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index. axel weber has reiterated support for ralph hamers after his allegedly role in a money laundering at ing. he is not saying whether hamers will stay at the job. axel: the are convinced that for us, nothing has changed at this point. we are monitoring the situation and will update it as things happen. i'm confident he has all the ability to do a good job as ceo of ubs and that is where we are. there's no further update on that. >> that's your bloomberg business flash. francine: now to your weak books and what you should be watching out for this week. bank of england's deputy governor on the coronavirus and spending. we hear from a slew of fed presidents speaking on races mend the economy, focus on education and wednesday, we hear from the ecb president christine
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lagarde on the eu economy post-covid and post-brexit. the central bank posts the account of its monetary policy meeting on thursday. kicking off another earnings season bound to be dominated by the coronavirus pandemic. we also get results from major u.s. banks jpmorgan, citigroup, and wells fargo. joining us is jane foley, rabobank affect strategy. an impeachment proceeding, if it were to go ahead, does that -- is there a correlation between impeachment going ahead and dollar? think there will necessarily be a short term correlation. we saw last week in the market when we were looking at the news out of washington, the market was concerned about the election , concerned about the fact we would get potentially or fiscal spending. that was the focus, not necessarily the violence on capitol hill but if we take this into the longer-term, we might see a different path.
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if we look at why the dollar remains the dominant currency in the payment system, why it is such a big currency in invoicing around the world and why it remains the dominant currency in fx reserves and central banks. we might over time begin to get a change in that pattern if we do get continued questioning about the state of democracy in the u.s. i don't think this is necessarily a short-term factor on the dollar, but it could be a long-term impact. what is: longer-term,, the trajectory, depending on what biden does in his first 100 days, how does that change long-term trajectory of dollar? jane: i think we've seen some of that in the price. the big move is the impact on nominal bond yields. we've seen those push higher and the dollar correct as a result, but we've also seen inflation expectations push higher because of the expectation of more fiscal spending and we know
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really over the last 9, 10 months or so that real interest rates are one of those big factors which has been undermining the value of the dollar and real interest rates so fromow in the u.s., that point of view, what we've been seeing over recent days is an adjustment. the market has been short the dollar, we've had new news in terms of fiscal outlay potentially under a biden administration, the right in nominal yields. we've seen good enough reason for people to take profits on their dollar shorts. i don't think we've seen good enough reason yet for the trench to reverse because real interest rates remain very low, so as we go through the course of this year, we will be keeping an eye on not just what nominal bond rates do, but inflation expectations and nominal rates in other countries such as the euro and european countries. francine: at what level -- i don't know if it is a level or how quickly get there, or treasuries a concern?
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treasuries at 2%, is that ok? it is interesting some of the comments from very many central bankers and the fed over the last few days. they are not generally concerned at the moment. what they would like to see is higher rates brought on by better economic growth. that would be a good outcome for them. perhaps what they are also trying to see under the biden administration is higher growth, higher nominal rates, but also higher inflation. we've seen the fed signal last year, average inflation targeting now and if we get higher inflation, that would probably help in terms of debt, so from that point of view, a combination of those three factors is probably an ideal, but for the dollar, that could still mean we have quite low real interest rates so that doesn't necessarily mean to say
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the dollar would strengthen on the back of that particular outcome. there is the possibility that the u.s. economy could recover better than that of the eurozone. it did after the global financial crisis, so the fed being able to normalize policy, the ecb could not because of the low inflation in the eurozone. if that scenario begins to develop and that could be a couple of years away, it could happen next year, that is when we will begin to see the dollar turnaround and recover some strength. francine: is there anything in the emerging markets you like right now? jane: i think emerging markets look attractive. if we look at background from the last nine months if not for the last few years, we have a big savings glut. we have an awful lot of people looking for yield and that 2% nominal rates, even if we got back there, we would still have relatively low interest rates on a historical point of view and that means lots of investors are looking for higher yield, so it
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is going to be interesting to see what happens with yields. it will really set the tone for how much risk other investors are likely to take, but e.m. is going to remain attractive as long as interest rates remain low. very quickly, if you look at euro, there is concern about what happens in italian politics. i know we've been here before, but there are questions about rollout of the vaccine in europe. what is the level ecb should start looking at? again, with the ecb, it is the pace of the move, not just a level. the ecb probably doesn't like euro even at these levels, but as long as it is fairly steady, there is nothing it could potentially do about it. stability from their point of view is probably a number one criteria right now. although we had some bad news in terms of italy politics and the vaccine rollout in europe, last
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week we had better german economic data and that will bring relief. if you look at the german data, perhaps because germany is oriented toward china and exports, that did help. french that, industrial production remains weak, but if germany manages to keep its head above the water in economic outlook, that will help europe. there was some good news for europe last week as well. francine: thank you so much, jane foley, rabobank head of the tech strategy. coming up, questions over sovereignty. france's junior minister for eu affairs told bloomberg the world will look different for the u.k. post-brexit. this is bloomberg. ♪ so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back?
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francine: this is "bloomberg: surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. in u.k. has left the eu but key areas, uncertainties remain. in an interview with maria tadeo, france's junior minister for eu affairs and ally of the french president emmanuel macron said the u.k. is still not fully sovereign despite brexit. take a listen. clement: the u.k. has secured access with the eu markets, but which we were ready to provide for but in many respects, our rules and standards which limits
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their ability to be fully sovereign, and in a way, it is greater in that situation because it will have access to the market, but will not decide on the rules of eu markets. it is much better and we should demonstrated in system we to be -- insistently to be within the club and able to decide on these rules. maria: there is one area the u.k. did not get a deal and that is the financial services, the passport and eu equivalence. that is huge, because the city of london depends on that and we have seen banks like goldman sachs moving to paris for the same reason. there is a lot of uncertainty, and the prime minister says we don't have everything we want, but that doesn't mean we can't get it in the future. do you think that is going to happen, in two or three years time, will the eu grant full equivalence? just like that? clement: no, passporting is over. that is where i mentioned the consequences of brexit. that is a clear-cut consequence of brexit. no passporting anymore and there is no way there can be passporting when you are out of
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the eu. now, legal framework. what is possible, a unilateral decision from the eu to be 27 is to give equivalence, possible access to our financial services market on an ad hoc basis, meaning you look at the segments of the market you want to give access to, you decide yourself, the eu in this case, and you can revoke this authorization of access. so it is a very different world from the one we are living in before the 31st of december. francine: bloomberg's maria tadeo speaking to france's junior minister for eu affairs. coming up, the bund's pool gets smaller. credit suisse considering cuts of 10%. we also have more from the interview with ubs chairman axel weber.
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also, the ability of the chief executive to continue as a probe casts a shadow on his appointment. what else i'm looking at is the markets, dollar steady, global stocks stabilizing after the losses yesterday. investors, feeling more confident about the recovery, but also about the vaccine rollout. in risk buying the dip assets. energy and travels shares among the top stock gains in europe. this is bloomberg. ♪
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with leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: bloomberg sources tell us mike pence and donald trump spoke for the first time since the violence, pledging to work together since the end of term on january 20. if pentz fails to act, house are planning to push forward to impeach president trump again. u.k. is tightening trouble restrictions -- travel restrictions, removing the united arab emirates from its -- that follows an uptick of cases in the gulf country, which has risen 50% in the last week. self-isolateeed to for 10 days. the latest world leader to test positive for covid-19 is portuguese -- the portuguese president. as of late monday he had no symptoms. he is seeking a symptom -- a second term in the election.
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global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i'm 120 countries, leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. control ofemocrats the senate paves the way for lawmakers to enact bigger spending packages. tom mackenzie spoke with the ubs chairman about how that impacts his view of the economic recovery. >> we have actually downgraded -- oure chain projection short-term projection for the first quarter and with a less court of last year we will see a europe,ip recession in where it will be negative, and where there is carryover into the first quarter of this year, i think as it gets rolled out there is light at the end of the tunnel for the second half of this year with a strong rebound of the global economy and their way there might be through a double-dip recession, so that is
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a short-term headwind. that inform your ?iews about equity evaluations alex: in the short-term, no central bank will change their program. that will provide -- we expect a strong rebound in the year 2021, at the end of 2021, and carrying on into 2022. tom: you touched on the ecb. bundesbank -- they have extended purchases through march of 2022. current policy measures are extraordinary first ordinary times. as we come into more normal times, i would expect monetary policy to normalize. i doubt that the central banks will give that answer anytime
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soon. i don't think they will raise into race -- interest rates during the course of 2023. they might taper them slowly, which doesn't mean they stop buying totally, they just reduce the number of purchases and continue to reinvest. so this monetary policy will be with us for a long period of time, and i daresay maybe too long because what we saw last time around is we didn't get to normality in the 10 to 12 years after the financial crisis, and that gave us little room for new move ring with -- for maneuvering with the central banks. tom: what is the board's current view of the dutch investigation , and theseo, hamer's money-laundering allegations? alex: regulators have much more means than we as a board to look into this matter, but they are very convinced that for us nothing has changed at this
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point in time. we are monitoring the situation, and we update it. thathow confident are you you will remain as the ceo? -- that he will remain as the ceo? alex: i am confident that he has every ability to do good job as the ceo of ubs. there is no update on that. tom: i want to get your views on m&a. what is the forecast for consolidation within the banking space this year? alex: my view, it should happen in a big bank. there should be a pan banking market, and we need to get there not in an evil lucian in the next 20 years -- in an evolution in the next 20 years, we need to get there now. out of the covid lockdowns, finance is to channel money where it is best used. europe needs a deeper capital market, and that will not happen in a fragmented environment. just as the u.s. capital market would not have happened in a
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fragmented market across u.s. states. europe needs to grow into a true union. in that context, banks will consolidate. you see that at the moment. thanks in europe don't pay dividends. they don't do share buybacks. there in a different situation than u.s. banks. to be internationally competitive, they need to grow in size. of size.a market europe is fragmented and lax size. that is reflected in the balance sheet of profitability of its banks. we as a swiss bank are international. our major growth is not in europe. in europe we have an historic relationship, that our growth is in china and the u.s., and that is where we have invested resources, that is where we are looking into organic growth. when i said in the past that there will be consolidation, i didn't necessarily mean ubs will be a consolidator. we do have the strength to be a consolidator because we have a
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rocksolid balance sheet and a good capital position, but international acquisitions are very difficult to do. as a chairman you would not plan that a few months away from your last year. thatshould we take it deutsche bank and bnp paribas are no longer on your list of potential targets? alex: there are a lot of acquisitions that don't bring you much over smaller acquisitions. if opportunity involves management or in asset management, we will take those opportunities. more general retail or universal banking opportunities are a major distraction for many years to come for all banks that go through such an acquisition, and it is not our priority. our priority is to wealth and asset management organically or in organically with a global number one, we want to continue to be in that space, so we need momentum, but we also want to put some distance between us at number two, and that is where we
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become an option. francine: that was ubs group chair axel weber. bloomberg sources say the decision to cut 10% of its bonus chargese as a series of -- dani burger, how likely is it that credit suisse will go through with these cuts? dani: it does seem very likely. the lenders are just finalizing what the level will actually be at this point. in the coming week, sources tell us they will start to inform employees. 10% is the baseline for what the onus cuts are likely to be, but they could -- what the bonus cuts are likely to be, but they could go as high as 15%. credit suisse has had a quarter of struggling. they are set to post a loss for the fourth quarter and they have had not just these loan losses from covid hitting them, but also a lot of growing costs when it comes to things like legal on a-- $850 million spent u.s. legal case.
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this does break with the past two years of bonus plans at credit suisse. it kept in more or less flat and different from their rivals. other big banks come in some cases, and indeed many cases, are increasing the bonuses, at least for traders, goldman sachs and j.p. morgan might see a 20% increase of traders who brought this large windfall. the same cannot be said for credit suisse and their bonus plans. francine: we also found out through dft that the credit suisse former chief executive may have a new move. he may be starting a spac. has caught the eye of tejon tn. his spac is said to be worth about $250 million. to be listed in new york, it is going to target financial service terms. ,ticking with what he knows
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reporting that investors, in this, some of them are sovereign wealth funds, so that is the pool that we can expect to be participating in this new spac. francine: dani burger with the latest on some of these european banks. the bubbleis bursting? bitcoin faring well after the bear market yesterday. we look at the outlook for cryptocurrencies next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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including iconic bookmaker doc martin. contribute into a long awaited -- for domestic ipos now that the u.k. and brussels have struck a post-brexit trade deal. conservative social media platform parler is suing amazon for ending its web posting. the self-described microblogging alternative for twitter was off-line early monday. apple and google also removed it from their app stores over the weekend. parler claims amazon's move will kill his business. a steeper job than the 14% slump for the auto market, electric vehicles were a bright spot for the firm with a fully electric -- or than doubling its sales to more than 100,000 units. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine? francine: bitcoin split as much
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as 26% sunday and monday, it's biggest today drop since march. it has wiped out about $185 million since friday. the steep selloff is fueling concerns that the crypto bubble may be about to burst. surge of moreen a than 400% over the course of 2020. one winner in this rally is a company called argo blockchain. a cryptocurrency minor. -- joining us now, the argo blockchain chief executive officer. peter, great to have you on "bloomberg surveillance." for less -- for those of us who are less familiar with what you do, do you mind it, sell it on, or keep it? >> we mine primarily bitcoin. computers are out there searching for bitcoin, verifying
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transactions on the blockchain, and we get bitcoin. we use some of it to cover operational costs come and at this point most of it we hope, because we think bitcoin is a great asset class and is moving in one direction. francine: how do you generate the power needed for operations? peter: we have facilities with various hosts in north america, and the primary power source that we have for those facilities is hydroelectric power. francine: there is increasing attention about the amount of energy that icahn uses to mine. what are your thoughts on that? peter: i think it is a problem that needs to be solved. we need to be sure that cryptocurrency mining companies are as green as possible. we're fortunate that we have a large facility that is backed with hydroelectric power, and we are always looking for the opportunity to bring more renewables into our facility and to make sure that renewable
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power is part of our power sources. general, itcy in does use power, but we think as the executor matures, there is definitely going to be lots of innovation happening around green technologies. francine: peter, when are you expecting the sector to mature fully come and how much cleaner do you think this mining will be? old,: it is only 12 years francine. bitcoin is still a very new technology. in 2020 we saw lots of institutions coming aboard, which was something that was new. i think the last full run when you look back to 2017, 2018, was driven by retail interests. i think in 2020 you so microstrategy leading the way. the ceo decided to put a big chunk to bear capital into bitcoin, and then after that, on board came square and visa and blackrock and all these other
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blue-chip institutions. as those institutions have come on through the second half of 2020, we have seen more interest in the sector grow. ofncine: what is the benefit investing in a crypto minor rather than a cryptocurrency? your: in the same way that invest in a jr. gold minor, you invest in a crypto currency miner. it is a value asset class, and often you can do better returns company ina mining that space. so it is the same in the cryptocurrency space. there are five or six publicly traded miners in north america. we are listed in london. you said we were dual listed -- not quite right.
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we have an otc training upper -- trading opportunity or trading ability to trade our shares. but essentially that is how it works. in the same way you would invest in -- francine: is this a diversification play, or is it less volatile, do you think? is a more liquid than bitcoin? peter: i think it is similar. bitcoin, depending on which exchange you are using, it is easy to get in and out of. we have certainly seen a loss of volume in our stock in the last month. in london i think our average trading volume is $30 million or $40 million now. there is lots of interest, lots of energy in the space right now, both for actual cryptocurrencies and also cryptocurrency stock. risks forwhat are the regulation and intervention in
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your space? sector,t is a maturing so like any sector, there is going to be regulation, a dance with regulators, a push and pull. we will see where things land. we think some guardrails are good. obviously a publicly traded company, we are regulated by the fda, and i think there may be more regulation required moving forward in the space. years, the bitcoin space. goingne: i have been backwards and forwards with one of r-star reporters -- with one of our star reporters on bitcoin, eddie van der walt. when you look at central banks and possible central banks more foray into cryptocurrencies, do they still need miners? peter: that is a good question. i think that they probably don't. tore are a number of ways
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monitor the transactions in the cryptocurrency space. central banks are looking at bringing their own digital currencies forward. they are different because they will be centralized. they will be, you know, fully authorized by the government, whereas something like bitcoin is by its nature decentralized. it is just riveted across the network. it is worldwide. again -- it is distributed across the network. it is worldwide. i think you will see a central bank introduced a currency, and that will spur more innovation in the space not just for the company but also cryptocurrencies in general. wall, argoeter blockchain chief executive officer. coming up, when two house immigrants will vote for impeaching president trump for the second time in just over a year. more on that next, and this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london. house democrats have launched its president trump, and a vote could take place as soon as wednesday unless mike pence removes trump first. sources say that is unlikely. trump and pens met for the first time since the storming of the u.s. capitol last week, and have pledged to work together until the end of their terms. the fbi's warning about possible violence around joe biden's inauguration next week. how much of the folks in washington -- the focus is in washington on the impeachment proceedings, and how much of it is to make sure that inauguration day, january 20, is safe for everyone? >> it is a bit of a juggle really. -- theimatum to pence is focus is on how fast the senate and the house move on the
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impeachment front. the house could go much more straightforward since the democrats are still in control there. the senate side is another matter entirely. you cannot be all that sure that democrats spending time on this issue is the best use of their time, with passing economic stimulus on the agenda. some think it is better for joe biden to get on and focus on his agenda and not have this cluttering up the congress. as you said, overhanging the final week of donald trump's term and questions of what that might mean for the inauguration on january 20. a lot of efforts to ensure that that goes smoothly, but of course warnings that there could be protests not just a ron washington but all across the country. trump being very quiet on that front, partly because he is banned on most social media platforms now.
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but republicans privately say that he has accepted some responsibility, and thinks that they should move on rather than bog down the senate with questions of impeachment. there is the possibility of a motion, saying let's do that and then move on. francine: what impact could this have on the u.s. global standing and its relationship with allies? alliesd: long-standing want a more even killed relationship with the u.s.. a less unpredictable one, a less volatile one. donald trump came after allies and enemies alike, and he also arguably protected some leaders -- russia and turkey and saudi arabia -- from the pressure others wanted to bring on them in terms of things like sanctions. leaders around the world start collaborating more on things like the pandemic and climate change, and their concern of course is that they know he will be very focused on things at home and that international
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affairs may take a backseat. impeachment becomes an issue in the first 100 days, another distraction. are the events at the capitol, the idea that the u.s. is a beacon of democracy, that that doesn't give it the right aboutture other countries human rights and domestic policy. there is a big challenge for american leadership internationally. francine: roslyn matheson with the very latest. we will look at markets and also europe. this is bloomberg. ♪
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the fbi warns of armed protests ahead of joe biden's inauguration. europe heads for a double-dip recession. j.p.morgan and ubs cut growth prospects for the start of 2021. u.k. prime minister boris johnson warns that he may tighten lockdown rules in england. plus, ubs stands by its chief executive. the swiss bank's chairman reiterates his support for ralph hamers. we'll hear from our exclusive interview with axel weber. good morning, everyone, and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. tom keene in new york. frankly, there is no other story in the world apart from what is happening in the u.s. right now with the democrats nearing proceedings to impeach president trump. the other story is lockdowns. not only vaccines but just in the u.k., could tighten lockdowns in england. i'm not sure how that is possible given where we are in london.
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