washington. the house passes a resolution demanding that president trump's cabinet remove him from office. mike pence won't agree. representatives hold a second impeachment vote today. taper talk. two fed officials push back on discussing withdrawal of support so soon. investors await guidance in the coming days. and the search is on. unicredit has approached tidjane thiam and andrea orcel as candidates for chief executive at the italian bank. that's according to the ft. good morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. tom keene in new york. tom, i have to say once again, it is all about u.s. politics. we are trying to figure out district district, state by state what the thinking is, whether impeachment can go through, and the bombshell from the new york times about mitch mcconnell's thinking. tom: there is no question the impeachment process today will go through. that is a given. but what is so interesting, moving to 5:00 p.m. this evening, is the then what.

the then what is really important. if i could say one thing, the statement by the military yesterday in the history of this nation was absolutely original, what the joint chiefs of staff wrote in a one page memorandum -- excuse me, a two-page memorandum. a one page memorandum to 2 million people. it was extraordinary. francine: they are trying to figure out if there are enough republicans in the senate to impeach the president. mitch mcconnell, i believe, is the only person who can recall the senate. is there any chance that he would do it? tom: we will talk to our experts about that. that gap in the senate versus a democratic house is about 17 votes. that is a lot of votes. francine: let's get straight now to first word news with ritika gupta. ritika: good morning.

the house has voted to demand that vice president mike pence use the 25th president trump from office. the vote was largely a symbolic asset because hours earlier, hence told nancy pelosi he would not comply. this sets the stage to vote to a preacher -- to impeach the president a second time. liz cheney of wyoming says president trump "summoned this mob, assembled the mob, and lit the flame of this attack." the daughter of former vice president dick cheney has been a target of internal republican criticism from trump allies. limerick has learned that president-elect biden will probably name gary gensler to head the securities. he joined -- the world put him in combat with banks. the trump administration is set

to unveil last-minute changes to fannie mae and freddie mac. they would allow the mortgage giant to retain more capital. the thorniest issues of releasing control would be left to the biden administration. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. tom? tom: i was going to do one screen today but i did two because francine is angry if i don't do two data screens. it is one churn in the market, the way i put it, with some dollar stability, yields, little bit off the festivities of the last two days. francine, i'm struggling here. ok, bitcoin. let me start our team coverage on bitcoin. it is lower, 34,561. i have no idea where bitcoin is going to be when we impeach

today, francine. francine: i don't think anyone knows. euro is edging lower after european central bank's said it would keep an easing monetary stance as needed. we were hearing from christine lagarde moments ago. some of the equity markets are supported by m&a news. a french grocer rallying 10% after a canadian company is exploring a transaction, so there is a bit of m&a news. i would point, as you did, tom, to the two-year and 10-year spread, significant since the begin of the year. a house vote today to impeach president trump comes a week after a mob of presidential supporters stormed the capitol. pres. trump: many people have done it and i have seen it both in the papers and in the media, on television. it has been analyzed.

people thought that what i said was totally appropriate. francine: joining us now is bloomberg's editor-at-large, in charge of all of our coverage, marty schenker. when you look at mitch mcconnell, he holds the power to decide what happens to the president. there was that new york times blog yesterday saying that they spoke to people that know his thinking, and he would be happy with impeachment. what does that actually mean? would he vote for impeachment? marty: that is the fundamental question. when you say he controls what happens in the senate on this one, he may take a role of not advocating one way or the other for senders to actually vote their conscience. what he himself does and what he says is critical for giving cover to those moderate republicans and those in the middle ground who are afraid to vote for conviction of president trump. mcconnell is the key, but what

he says and what he does could be two different things. francine: marty, how do we see that? if he really was for impeachment, would he recall the senate? marty: that is actually something that chuck schumer, who is the presumptive senate majority leader, is contemplating. it really does depend on just how fervent mcconnell is. they could call back the senate early. they are scheduled to come back on the 19th, the day before inauguration. he could bring them back sooner if they have the votes to convict president trump, and essentially expel him from office. tom: marty, good morning. what i find absolutely remarkable is the five republican candidates, from syracuse, new york, up to benton harbor, way out to the third district of washington state just north of portland. the common feature of these five

republicans is they actually have real elections. they are close elections, everybody is competing every minute of every day. describe that centrist republican thought now versus the certitude that we see from the trump supporters. marty: it is really interesting how this is different from the first impeachment cycle. there are moderate republicans who are in battleground districts who actually feel that voting their conscience and explaining it to their voters will not jeopardize their election, that the trump base has lost some of its momentum, and in two years we will find out if this vote of conscience is actually beneficial to their candidacy. tom: my book of the summer a number of years ago -- i will be honest, vice president cheney doesn't look very good in that book, in the battle over iraq and iran and the debris of september 11. explain to our audience the

symbolism of his daughter providing leadership last night. marty: liz cheney is the number three republican in the house of representatives. tom: but more than that, this is about wyoming and the fabric of western republicanism. marty: and i think the more significant thing is not that she came out and voted for impeachment, but her statement, in which she viscerally condemns the president and laid what happened at the capitol on wednesday right at his feet, it was really compelling, and it gives republicans on the fence at the house motivation to join her. i think there a significant number of republicans who will join her today. francine: for impeachment to go through the senate, i think you need 17 republican senators to vote for it. when do we know if we will get

that figure? marty: as tom said, that is quite a lot of senators. sitting here today, you would say that that is a complete longshot, whether you can possibly get 17. there is no way of knowing until they actually move the articles to the senate, and even then senators may not say anything about what their intentions are. but one thing is clear, there will be more senators voting for conviction, should that reach the senate, then there were the first time around. tom: and all the digital newspapers including bloomberg, there was a story on what we call the joint chiefs of staff. these people have a lot of brass on their chest, and there are senior pentagon officials. would you explain why that document has to be issued? marty: actually, there was a statement issued by the joint

chiefs yesterday that was relatively unprecedented, in which they said that the peaceful transfer of power is a tenant of the united states democracy, and they stand behind it, and so should every single person in the military. it was essentially unprompted but issued by the joint chiefs. it is an interesting historical document, in that they are basically saying let's get on with it, let's get the peaceful transition underway, and you don't see the military doing that in elections. tom: never seen it. i think it is truly unprecedented. martin schenker, thank you, on an unprecedented day. futures up five, dow futures up 32 as well. we will digress in a wonderful way and have perspective in this hour from lord patton on hong kong, and of course christopher patten on taiwan. please stay with us. from new york and london, this

is bloomberg. ♪

>> treasury actions, specifically with a fund rate of zero, has had a coercive effect on the market. it has required people to invest because they don't want to sit around with their cash, money market funds, bank deposits all earning zero. they don't want treasuries at less than one, or the highest rate bonds at two. so they have had to push out into risk assets. francine: howard marks, oaktree capital group co-chair and

co-founder. talking about the markets and the economies ahead, peter schaffrik joins us. thank you so much for coming on, especially on such a momentous day when you look at treasury and we look at the spread between the two and 10 year u.s. yield. what happens in the u.s. from now until year end? peter: one of the things that we have to say repeatedly, and my colleague who speaks to you has said repeatedly, once we get through this crisis, the upside for the economy is quite considerably on many fronts. one of them would be the labor market, but another one would also be the inflation picture, which is probably going to increase from here onwards. we think that the overall direction of treasury is upward. that doesn't mean it is going to be a smooth line, and in the here and now there will be a

pushback, but we do think high treasury yields are likely. francine: peter, two fed officials pushed back against the possibility of tapering bond purchases anytime soon. is that your base case scenario? peter: we have to see with the tapering because tapering can obviously mean quite a few things. it can mean just reduction, it can mean pushing the envelope a bit lower, it can mean something that is more together. but that debate has almost certainly put the back end of this year into a life debate. if i may say, if i may take a step back, one of the things that you can see in this early selloff that we have seen this year is the composition of that selloff is very remarkable, because it was by and large driven by high inflation expectations. almost glued to the bottom end of the range, particularly in

the shorter majorities. that is one of the things that the fed and the other central banks -- as long as the selloff is driven by higher inflation expectations, they are much more relaxed than -- tom: peter, good morning. i would like to know the ambiguity, to the noble corporate landscape of higher interest rates. our higher interest rates good for -- are the higher interest rates good for multinationals are not? peter: there is no doubt about it. in principle, obviously what every corporate around the world would like is a booming economy and superlow interest rates. that is clear, particularly given that they have high debt loans -- high debt loads. you could say that high debt yields come about because the rate environment requires high yields because the economy is doing so well. i think they probably appreciate that. what they wouldn't appreciate is an environment where there bond

yields go up because spreads are blowing up for reasons that are not good and the economy is not doing well. but given that we have a relatively good outlook for the economy, i think they can live with high interest rates. tom: this is really an important observation, peter. who knows what interest rates are going to do, folks? i'm not predicting that. the idea of an explosive move in equities as corporations adjust -- do you just assumed that is what is going to happen, that corporations will adjust to whatever they are dealt, and up we go? peter: as always, it is not only the direction of travel but also speed. you just use the word explosive. if we have an explosive change in underlying financial fundamentals, rising bund spreads, that is a tricky thing to deal with. if you have a gradual adjustment, a recovering economy that does well with the equity market and sees higher bond

yields, that is something -- you cannot deal with that. francine: peter, we heard from the ecb, that they are still quite comfortable with their projections. given that lockdown seem to be extended in europe, given vaccinations and distribution is problematic in certain countries, do we need to revise downwards our expectations not only for the world but especially for europe? peter: i mean, when i read the comments, i was thinking to myself maybe she would regret that. but i think it is quite plausible that particularly come as you pointed out, lockdowns are quite likely to extend all the way to march or the end of march. and that projections would have to be lowered once again. but also here, i think in europe the dynamic is probably the same as i was describing for the u.s., that once you come out of the winter months, the upside, the basis for a year as a whole is not going to look as it was,

not as good as it was in the previous projections, but still the trajectory in that case would trump the lower base in q1. i think the projections will have to be lowered. francine: if you look at central banks around the world, who has the toughest job? we also have a possible government crisis in italy looming. is it the fed or the ecb? peter: it is hard to compare the two because none of them have an easy job, was a complexities in europe, particularly for the ecb, they outpace the complexities for some of the others. if you just take that, you have raised it. one of the debates that we have with clients is about the issue of control and whether or not that is feasible in europe. i personally don't think so because of what kind of yield would you target? i think the ecb has a tough hand

that it has to deal with. francine: thank you so much, peter schaffrik, rbc capital markets global macro strategist. coming up, we speak with richard edelman. we will also talk about news, the media, and of course capitol hill. that is at 5:30 am in new york, 10:30 a.m. in london, five minutes from now. this is bloomberg. ♪

ritika: "bloomberg surveillance "bloomberg surveillance this is -- this is "bloomberg surveillance." the canada convenience store giant says it is in talks. there is no guarantee discussions will lead to a deal. it has a market value of more than $15 billion. an acquisition would be a major strategy shift. it has focused on convenience stores and gas stations, not supermarkets. paying $4.4 million to buy telecom in latin america. american teller had largely stayed away from europe where companies are trying to raise money to cut debt and pay out the 5g rollout. and walking away from the takeover of fintech company played. the deal was aimed at expanding the network services. the government said lisa was

buying -- two avoid an emerging threat to his online debit business. that is the bloomberg business flash. francine? francine: thank you so much. this is what the markets are looking at. they are looking at treasuries, at spreads between the u.s. ten-year stocks climbing. and that it will keep an easing monetary stance for as long as needed. the other thing i am looking at is a bit of support in equities because of m&a news, rallying 10% after an offer from a canadian supermarket. and oil prices rising for a seventh day. tom: to washington uncertainty -- and a nod to the pandemic with more than 4000 people dying yesterday. a frightening reality of early may for that in the united states. but the awareness of massive

stimulus has given the market stability here, given all the uncertainty. one measurement of that stability in the yield space, point to spread, one figure yesterday, one percentage point difference. a live but flatter, but i don't want to make a big deal about this. we are thrilled to bring you lord patten. we will do that next. this of her patten on his hong kong, the responsibility -- christopher patten on his hong kong, the responsibility for the western financial system. an historic day for washington. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the former secretary of state, he was in my firm, he

used to say the best job in washington is secretary of state. but it's a difficult job. would you say the best job you had? >> undoubtedly. if the privilege of a lifetime and a challenging job, but one if you've got a great team like i do, you can do wonderful things to protect america. >> as you've served about a little more than two .5 years as secretary of state and you look back on what you achieved, what would you say you are most proud of what you've achieved? >> we've made some progress of the state department. we created an ether for our team and make sure we had people in the right places to have a planning system here i think we'll have real value as the years go on. the leadership challenge of being secretary of state, filling out what is a big organization and handing it off is an important one.

around the world we've taken on what president trump calls america first. based on restraint, realism and respect for other nations and their sovereignty. we can talk about specific places and regions, but it is an understanding of american patent -- american capacity to do good in the world without putting a lot of people in harms way and deliver on the things that matter. >> as you look back on your tenure, what would you say has been the most frustrating thing for you, is there something you wish you had achieved you haven't yet achieved? >> certainly has lots of unfinished business in lots of places in the world. the work we've done to change how america thinks about the chinese communist party and how we respond is incredibly important work but it's a long-term project. we turned the page, we put american foreign policy in a new direction.

there's still a lot of work to be done. tom: david rubenstein with the secretary of state. look for the david rubenstein show on bloomberg television at 9:00 p.m. on thursday, looking forward to that. on our diplomacy and the diplomacy to hong kong, christopher patton joins us. the former governor of hong kong and also a scholar from oxford of a few years ago. coming over to america in his early years. before we get to the topics at hand, i must ask about the marshall scholar to oxford. mr. burns will be appointed head of cia president biden. this is a return to a more traditional cabinet and officers of the government. >> it is. he is a really fine man. i worked with him and saw him

when he was in oxford a couple years ago. he was finishing his wonderful book on american foreign policy in today's world. he was the sort of public servant who they probably would not have had identical views but was represented people like james baker and george schultz who are fine public servants and never -- america's national interests and its role. i hope we will see that again with mr. biden's administration. so far the appointments he's made in foreign policy and security have been very -- tom: i was speaking to stephen engle and we wonder of the

western response to what we have seen in hong kong. i want you to be acute about what is your chosen path for the major american banks. do they embrace the new hong kong or do they dispute what china has done? >> that's asking whether you should've embraced the mafia. they feel they have to up to a point work within the context of what china has been doing in hong kong, but the national security isn't going to give them the autonomy in the commercial dealings. they may have annoyed china, they're going to make a lot of the customers and investors think twice about the relationship. i think banks have a really difficult choice to make. they should be very open about

what they choose to do and in some cases they may well have to make a distinction between what they do in china and hong kong. we know from the way jack ma has recently apparently been treated that the chinese make a distinction between the private secretary -- private sector and state led enterprises. these are difficult choices which they are being obliged to make because of the fact these chinese regime has taken a different turn to the one jim baker and others followed in the years at the beginning of the century. francine: how do you see the crackdown on alibaba. are they seen as an extensional threat to beijing? >> i suspect in beijing's eyes i

think it is -- i think he got too big for their boots. they have so much money invested they became competitors to i think state banks in china and critical of the regulators. to borrow a phrase this will be regarded as emergency by the chinese regime. i suspect jack ma is lucky he hasn't been locked up unlike others who criticized the chinese government. this is a brutal government. one which is taking advantage of the pandemic which it is partly responsible for taking advantage of the chaos in washington.

francine: what should the international governments actually do? are there any further actions that will be helpful? >> there are and it's not enough to conduct your diplomacy with china through a megaphone and you have to distinguish between the chinese communist party and the chinese people. doctors who tried to blow the whistle on the coronavirus epidemic when it was starting and were dealt with by the police when they tried to do that. in dealing with the chinese communist party, president-elect biden is correct in arguing for trying to put together a partnership of liberal democracies not to establish a cold war, a nephew trying contain china to constrain china and it behaves badly. tom: the idea is we used to show

the flag in the harbor. you are with prince charles in a difficult day. do we have the capability to show the flag, that imagery of the mountains in the background and hills in the background and the western ships in the harbor? i think we have a technical difficulty. he is never speechless and always informed. a technical difficulty at that. futures negative seven, a dow futures -45. deutsche bank out with important reaffirmation of pound sterling. making clear he was looking for -- is looking for stronger sterling offer a stronger vaccine response. >> it is a historic day on capitol hill. the house will vote whether to impeach president trump for a second time.

the vote comes a week after a mob of the president supporters storm capitol hill. the house voted to demand vice president pence use the 20 for the amendment to remove trump from office. president-elect joe biden will seek a deal with republicans another round of coronavirus relief. it could be a smaller initial package. the goal is to avoid trying to wrap through a bill without republican support. coronavirus deaths in the u.s. may climb by another 80,000 in the next four weeks according to a new forecast based on models from the cdc. the u.s. expects to add more than 3000 deaths a day, bringing the total to more than 459,000 by early february. financiers are keeping the faith they can win back access to the

european union and the next round of talks. their industry was left out of the brexit trade agreements. 76% bankers expect the eu to run some form of equivalent to more market access. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. >> up next on their annual trust report, we talk about u.s. politics with richard edelman. this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is bloomberg

surveillance. the latest edelman trust barometer, majority of people believe media, government and business leaders mislead the public by spreading misinformation. richard, always great to speak to you, especially on a very tough week like this week where we saw the riots in capitol hill. what exactly did we see? is this misinformation? why are people questioning the election? richard: this is the outcome of disinformation. we have a shocking state of information bankruptcy. the report is very clear, people do not believe leaders anymore because they are being told lies and they don't believe the media platforms either because they think it is politicized or somehow unethical and divisive. people are just getting facts from social media and acting on

that basis. that's really what happened on capitol hill the other day. they had false hopes and they were deluded into thinking there should be some sort of change on the basis of individual action. francine: how does the media gain back credibility? how does government gain back credibility? social media giants borrowing -- barring president trump. is it right that they decide who speaks and who doesn't? richard: the reality is when someone foments violence, you can have that on social. oliver wendell holmes decision about crying fire in a crowded theater. it is antisocial. so i actually believe all of the media need to get away from

opinion and towards fact. we have to get better information into the hands of people. in our study we found the company newsletters and company information is most rapid of a source of information. that's because trust is gone low or. my ceo in my company is the best source because i can see it and believe it and here it and therefore it is a new responsibility for companies and ceos in particular to stand up and speak at this time. tom: this is the first moment after i thought would be at least 17 years at davos i realize there will be no davos. you begin with richard edelman and the wonderful lionel barber telling you where we are. wonderful to start my davos with you. where are we on the --?

i want to know what the vaccination is, to get the people of this country so disaffected back on board. how do we take the vaccination? richard: the disinformation around vaccine is shocking. in fact our study found only a third of people are willing to get vaccinated immediately. another third after one year and in france, half want get vaccinated. so what we have to do is business needs to take the ball now. tom: when do we see that? how do we affect that with a new president? how does business take over as the operational mechanism not only for the vaccine but this distrusting media? richard: media is the fundamental pillar of information the world and it is going to do its job better in the next phase because it will

not be following tweets. i'm convinced of that. this also -- business is a fundamental job of taking forward vaccination. we have to persuade people through quality information. why are there side effects, if they are, what's the small number of people who will be affected. we have to make sure we are telling people success stories. get opinion leaders in the company to get vaccinated first in some way and say look i am back on the road or do my job better because i can go see clients and i'm safe. that's how we have to get work happening again. francine: it seems that media is every blogger, website, publisher in the world. does there need to be a crackdown on what is actually considered media?

richard: we have a social media that has actually been the dominant part of the discussion because it has led mainstream. original reporting starts with quality media. we need to have corroborated facts. facts matter and facts need to be reported and checked and third-party corroborated. and not just somebody's opinion or experience. that is not sufficient. we found information hygiene is terrible. only 25% of respondents say they actually check their stories before they send them to friends. people are inherently interested in sort of self-promotion sharing. that is an education program we have to do to say we need to actually help each other and to

get better educated. don't send stuff you just think is fun. >> do you make a difference between what we are seeing in the anti-factors movement and politics? it is also clear is a member of the media it's difficult to get proper information on may be less vaccines but actually what covid-19 is. >> the interconnection between disinformation and the pandemic is like a rambo strain of dna. we have to break that apart. we will deal with the pandemic through the vaccine if we can get people to believe government and believe business and business is a much better chance in a way than government. because it's close to its employees. with a real chance every day to explain this is the consequence, this is how we can get back to work.

this is good for you and good for your families. we need to keep hammering that message. because anti-factors have made popular to say there is not enough evidence. the vaccine has been rushed. that's just not so. it's been miraculously discovered but the trials have been very substantive and very broad. ceos have a very important role here. 90% of people now say i want ceos to speak up about the pandemic and about job training. it's a new world for business to be if on the information. tom: you and i have talked about this. it was truly one of the foundations on the economy one million years ago. what you say is we need more james dimon. his conference call is different. he writes a 58 page love note

every year in his annual report. he is up at davos yelling and screaming. telling me about risk. why can we get more jamie dimon's out there in the ceo space. what are they afraid of? >> i think there is the sort of learned behavior from predecessors which keep your head down and the problem will pass. but it's not going to pass. at the moment ceos are the group that has the opportunity to change this game. and we need you all to actually lead now publicly, not just privately. and your ability and your community, your ability and the company to make change is urgent. >> they are all talking to you and now they are all saying they're pulling away their political donations from people that supported the president and

you know the story on the rigged election and all of that. went to the call up richard edelman and tell us how do we get our political donation machine back in order for 2024. how many months, weeks or days till you forget about that and it's all news and they get on the political gravy train. >> i think this is a crucible moment for ceos, this is the test. and the initial reaction by some companies to suspend all political donations to me is not intelligent. we should say those who voted against the approval of electoral college phot really need to be scrutinized. to say we won't donate at all i think is fallacious. and not sustainable. and we should encourage politicians who behave properly. but i also see ceos having a fundamental role in systemic

racism, on job training, on promotion for infrastructure spent. this is a time when business actually can bring the two parties back together. we have an urgent need for business to just get on with the job and to lead here. and it's clear from our data our business is much more trusted than government and business is a leading force in institutional trust right now. it won't last forever necessarily but this is the time. francine: thank you so much. chief executive also given the widening wealth gap. coming up later we continue our focus on real politics. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: bloomberg surveillance, futures or flat. on your washington and christopher ferrone charts the markets. this is bloomberg.

>> this morning, this time is

different is select republicans or democrats saying the president must go. chait in wyoming says what we know now is enough. the connell kentucky is reported to approve of the actions. the military willow bay orders from civilian leadership. the joint chiefs of staff releases historic one-page memorandum. troops are reminded there will be a new commander-in-chief and as 500,000 deaths a day in america, think early may of this 2021. bloomberg surveillance, i'm tom keene in new york. good morning to all of our team in washington set for historic day for the united states of america and all of us watching around the world. look