manus: good morning from newburgh's middle east headquarters in dubai. i'm manus cranny. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." your top stories. >> he must go. he is a clear and present danger to this nation. manus: donald trump becomes the first u.s. president to be impeached twice as the house

republicans break ranks, he faces a trial in the senate. treasury yields rise on reports the president-elect plans a two troon dollars stimulus. the fed chair speaks today. and the french finance minister opposes a buyout saying food security is a priority amid the virus. the u.k. has its deadliest day. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." one of the biggest moves from the republicans toward impeachment. this is a dramatic move but perhaps bigger market moving news is from cnn, where biden talks about her $2 trillion stimulus package. there are a great deal of

assumptions baked into it. goldman sachs says global equities are now in the hope phase of a new bull market. 33% growth in earnings this year, a positive for single-digit returns. stocks in america, keeping an eye on europe and italy. roll it over and you begin to understand the manifestation of what a $2 trillion stimulus package might have. the dollar is back on the dip at the moment. we did spike a little bit higher. powell, jay powell will speak today. i will be really surprised if i don't hear him push back on all of this potential mutterings and the hawkish clack that has arisen over the past 10 days. my guest host this morning has a whole other view on bond

markets. let's see where the $2 trillion belongs. let's revert to our top story. donald trump is impeached on a single charge of incitement of insurrection. the historic vote makes trump the only president to be impeached twice. the article will be sent to the senate. president trump is bonded by calling for americans to unite and avoid further violence. pres. trump: violence and vandalism have absolutely no place in our country and no place in our movement. mob violence goes against everything i believe in and everything our movement stands for. no true supporter of mine could ever endorse political violence. manus: let's get to our quick take reporter, jennifer joins me from new york. good to have you with us. how did this vote differ from

the first time that trump was impeached? jennifer: from the first impeachment, we really saw lawmakers vote along party lines. that wasn't exactly the case on wednesday, as lawmakers voted to impeach trump. after impassioned speeches from a number of lawmakers, we saw as you mentioned in your intro, 10 republicans break ranks and side with the democrats. this is really notable. the third-highest ranking republican, liz cheney, actually was one of those who broke ranks with the party. this boat also really exposed some of the fractures that exist within the republican party. -- the vote did expose the fractures. there are those that did condemn the actions and rhetoric of the president, but still voted against impeachment because they said it would further divide the country and it is not the right time for that. but there are still a number of

lawmakers who defended the president even after undergoing some of the actions that they did last week on the hill. this manus: the most -- manus: the most stunning line is it's the most bipartisan impeachment of a president in u.s. history. how does this play out from here? because it's about timing and it's about votes and it's about the theater. and it's about not overshadowing the accession of biden. jennifer: that's going to be key. i don't think lawmakers have figured out yet what they are going to do. it depends on a few things. what is nancy pelosi going to do? when is she going to send the article of impeachment over to the senate? and what is senate majority to do? his vote will really have an

effect on the rest of the republican lawmakers in the chamber. he said on wednesday he has not decided whether he would vote to convict trump, but he did say that this is not the time for the trial. he is not going to call lawmakers back for an emergency session before biden is sworn in. as you mention, biden is really focused on getting a new round of relief. we will hear from him later today, but he has indicated to senate lawmakers that he really wants them to split their day and have an vote to not only confirm his cabinet pick, but also to proceed with the impeachment trial. manus: thank you so much for staying up late and covering that for us. on that stimulus point she was just mentioning, president-elect -- allies have said that president elect biden in -- plans to propose a relief

package of $2 trillion. the day to you sir. let's try to square away the politics. here we are with the most bipartisan impeachment in the history of the united states of america. take the politics and transfer it to the risk of markets. i look at risk to the biden covid strategy around america. how do you assess the impeachment risk? >> there is a lot to take on board there this morning. i don't really think it's going to disrupt markets too much. you might even say this could embolden the new president and the administration. and the early signs of talking about even bigger numbers than before. yesterday i was hearing around $1 trillion, and now it is $2

trillion. so there could be some impact if the new group are much more confident and go for a bigger stimulus than before. so that's how i see it. there's only a few days left, anyway. manus: the last time we caught up with you, you say you're jumping off point is the reflation narrative that everybody has been banging on about his petering out paving who you are waking up this morning to a much bigger number of two chilean dollars, maybe including the previous $900 billion, you're looking at maybe three. with that shift you off that, that the old arguments have been battered? would it shift you at all?

steven: the short answer is no. the slightly longer answer is that supply doesn't matter. when i hear myself say that, i wonder whether it makes sense because intuitively, most investors want to believe if you increase the supply of something, a bond or commodity, whatever, the price will go down. at depends, doesn't it? it depends on the demand and the nature of that demand. all of the empirical evidence, all the studies we have done, shows that really there is no association as meaningful between the changing supply of bonds and the yield. in fact, i can sometimes see the opposite. in the increased debt levels over the last 20 years have been associated with lower and lower yields, because it has to be financed. i think it's intrinsically

appealing to talk about deficits and bond supply and therefore, yields going up. but it doesn't fit with the facts. that is ultimately what matters. of course the fed has taken down a lot of paper over the years. at one stage last march to april, the fed was planning an annualized $30 trillion and it is now between -- near $2 trillion annualized. there has already been a dramatic reduction from the peak and you can call that a tapering already. so there is a lot of debate about this. it is a good hook for you to talk about in terms of what to focus on, but it doesn't worry me. ultimately what matters is bonds and the short rake -- short

rate. manus: you heard me chuckle because i quite like the way you put people like me back in my media box for rattling on about tapering. but i think this is what we need to debate a little bit, if you forgive me. one analyst is expecting of growth rate in the magnitude of 7.3%. you're looking at potentially 1984 and inflation rates around 3%. these are the market aggressively -- there's a repricing that happens in the market. is that the feds risk? steven: this is a bit more credible to talk about because if the fed sees the potential

gdp being meaningfully moved upwards, it might change the forecast. that happened back in 2016 when trump came in. the reaction function of the fed changed and they projected even higher rates. it's now 2021 and this fed has a forward guidance and says they are not hiking for three years. all of that says to me the short rate isn't moving. what is interesting about it is there's a focus on the year on year growth numbers, but when do actually close the aqueduct? that's what really matters. so we shouldn't be talking about growth and recovery. were talking about rebound here. once we get back to the 2019 level of gdp, once we have

restored what has been lost, and according to the calculations we have done, we're looking at three years minimum and it could be more. again, i think it is appearing to look at annualized gdp numbers and think the biennial should go up. but it is not. manus: it's a healthy debate, and it's good to put some of that exuberance of the media writers in check. let's get to laura for the first word news. laura: the u.s. is considering easing its restrictions on travel. the centers for disease control are discussing lifting curbs on flights from brazil and the european union while its

priority is protecting public health. the cdc says it is also aware of the economic damage of world travel bans. johnson & johnson's experimental one-shot covid-19 vaccine has generated a long-lasting immune response in an early study. more than 90% of participants did produce antibodies within 29 days and all formed them within 57 days. the company expects or definitive data early next month. the u.s. is said to be dropping its plans to ban investments in alibaba and tencent. a source tells bloomberg the treasury department wants to remove the uncertainty hanging over asia's two biggest companies. officials also debated locking baidu, but also dropped that plan. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

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manus: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." italy's government risk collapsing after the junior coalition party pulled out. the country relies on the party of the former prime minister renzi. that's good to our reporter who tracks all things europe. thank you for joining me. what are the options?

critics this morning italy is in a very delicate and precarious situation. the government is very much at risk of collapsing. this is happening in the midst of a pandemic and a serious economic crisis. it just gives you an idea as to the context in which all of this is happening. he has a number of options that could play out in the next few days but you know an italian crisis could go on for weeks. he could say i have a different majority and other votes and therefore we are good, i can stay in office. he could reassign it and the president of the republic could decide whether he still has a mandate to reform an alternative majority. that would be the third government in two years. the worst cash scenario -- worst-case scenario is whether you want to bring in the

technocrats to get the reforms that are needed rolling. or you go to a new election. at this point the idea of going to an election does not seem feasible because we are in the midst of a pandemic. the logistics of that are very difficult. it comes down to either finding a new majority or having a possibility of heading to a technocratic government once again. manus: maria, thank you so much. steven major is listening into this conversation. you look at the drop by 60 basis points. there's a bit more volatility and a political twist. give me your take at the moment. ultimately you have a backstop by the ecb. there is a bandwidth here beyond

which we will not break. steven: quite right, and the game changing event of last year was the recovery fund and the nexgen issuance is going to come from the e.u. and also the fed, the fact that of the ecb as you just mentioned paving that changes the picture somewhat, compared to previous crises. you could go back and look at 2011-2012 and you will see italian bond yields were up to 7%. that is 700 basis points. so the game has completely changed. also it is a timely reminder of how these markets are all intermingled. treasuries and bunds are often driven by actions elsewhere. if italy is the current flashpoint, that's why the bund

market has been rallying and i daresay it will support treasuries as well. it depends just how serious this is because the markets have grown accustomed to these fiscal comings and goings in italy and other countries. so it is another thing for us to absorb in markets and its reason i'm keen to stress that when we look at the bond yield forecasts, it's quite an integrated process. it's not a case of just looking at the local fundamentals. everything is linked. manus: let's just close that with some of your bigger calls for 2020 one. with that coalescing of risks around the world and risks in the u.s., is that what makes you still stick 2.75%? in other words we are anchored at that level in u.s. treasuries.

so what is your main call for 2021? steven: that forecast has become the big call. the 10 year rate is a reference rate for everyone else in all kinds of markets. it is the big call and it has become the big call because the market has moved. we have had a repricing of treasuries. our forecast now looks very bullish. i'm pleased that we've had this correction in markets because we have something now to say. the forecast doesn't move with the stock rate. it is based on where the equilibrium rate should be. i think you will find that inflation is below 2% at year-end. that is more consistent with the valuation triggers and that's

why our forecast is 75. manus: markets often overreach and get over aggressive. where is the risk point in the eem trade in the nominal bond yield in the united states of america? what is the trigger point for an unwinding of this? steven: that's a good point, because again, in the forecasting process we have to think about what's happening to risky assets. real yields have done nothing and the main movement is in the inflation expectations in the last few weeks and months. so equities are priced off this extraordinarily low yield long into the future. i'm wondering what happens if that ever gets disrupted. you could get a situation where normal yields are contained by the fed and the market and

inflation was to peek in a month or so in a month or so and then start dropping off. you will find real yields going up. we cannot make these stories up. it is quite possible because it is the residual that drops out of an equation, anyway. so risky assets seem to be priced off the longer. is very easy for some kind of disruption to come through. manus: we will have to leave it there. i will send you a quick message after this interview, so standby for that. steven major, good to have you in our time zone. the global head of fixed income for hsbc. coming up, the treasury slides on the report of the $2 trillion narrative for covid aid. we will discuss. this is bloomberg. ♪

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manus: let's get straight to dani burger with the latest news on the bond market. >> we saw treasury yields climb on that report that biden might be looking at a $2 trillion aid package. this has begun to rattle investors, not just the move today but the treasury yield climb over the past few days. about four of the fed speakers had said they might start thinking about winding down bond purchases. that invokes fears of the taper tantrum. everyone from individual investors to jp morgan have started to invoke the 2013 taper tantrum. on yields are still below where they were in february so maybe

they are actually higher from where they are now. manus: short and sweet and to the point. thank you very much. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: good morning flom -- from bloomberg's middle east headquarters in dubai. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." here are the top stories. >> he must go. he is a clear and present danger to the nation that we all love. manus: donald trump becomes the first u.s. president to be impeached twice as the house republicans -- 10 house

republicans break ranks to join the democrats. he faces a trial in the senate. treasury yields rise on reports the president-elect has a $2 trillion stimulus. the fed chair also speaks today. and france's finance minister saying security is a priority. the u.k. has its deadliest day. the agenda of expectation has been set by cnn as the discussion is that there could be $2 trillion of covid stimulus in the biden administration. my guest in the last 30 minutes has said if anything, the impeachment of donald trump could embolden the biden ministration to go big or go home. what would $2 trillion due? the equity market is embolden this morning. goldman sachs's earnings will improve going into the rest of

this year. globally, 12%-14% upside for global equities, 53% declines, single-digit returns, and 74% value overgrowth. that is the narrative from goldman. how do we assess the risk of $2 trillion of covid stimulus to calm? -- to come? the bond spike came in terms of yield. steven major remains firmly rooted in the .75% when he talks about the potential. inflection next -- inflation expect haitians may rise. the oil down -- oil market is down, off its 10 month highs. it's about stubbornly high oil

inventories. we'll talk more about that in just a moment. the top story, the impeachment of donald trump by the house of representatives on a single charge of incitement of insurrection. it makes donald trump the only president to be impeached twice. the article will now be sent to the senate. president trump responded by calling on americans to unite to avoid further violence. pres. trump: violence and vandalism have absolutely no place in our country and no place in our movement. mob violence goes against everything i believe in and everything our movement stands for. no true supporter of mine could ever endorse political violence. manus: stephanie kelly is with aberdeen standard investments. thank for taking the time.

this is the most bipartisan impeachment in the history of the united states of america. and twice in the space of 30 days. your assessment of the scale of the dissension in the republicans in this impeachment? >> so far it has gained more ground than previous attempts. the senate is the next phase of the impeachment process. it seems likely that a number of republican sinners will be peeling off. it's necessary for trump to get impeached. it will affect whether he can

run in 2024 or not. manus: is it the folly of the democrats to pursue this? >> we've been talking with our contacts all week. similar to the last impeachment proceedings, inaction would be seen as a weakness by their base. those kinds of things have made it a little less politicized, but it always is a political choice to make. it seems -- manus: it's about making sure your base is acknowledged and played to. my guest in the last 30 minutes,

steven major said it's a case of go big or go home. what do you make of the possibility of a $2 trillion covid stimulus? >> whether they tried to push the energy infrastructure into that, it's all in the details. in addition to the traditional fiscal, infrastructure, health care, and education. it will be interesting to see if they try to shoehorn some of that into green energy or into the covid bill. it's much larger than most were factoring in just for covid support. manus: the question is, is the

$2 trillion extra on top of that 900 billion we already had? let me get a sense from you in terms of the balancing act for biden. because you say it's about this debate between the ability for him to have fiscal largess and if he doesn't get that, we will look at higher taxes. so what kind of higher taxes could we potentially look at? stephanie: the reality for biden is that he will have to balance the moderate preferences in the party. he is traditionally moderate [indiscernible] manus: do you think the market already assumes 25%? stephanie: it's been pretty well

understood that it's under pressure. bearing in mind the realities of the actual stress level. it could be quite different. manus: stephanie, thank you for being with us this morning. thank you for your time. opec and its allies are focused on sustaining the world stubbornly high oil reserves. >> we are not focused on price. we are focused on returning this market to stability, which has

been not only to the detriment of producers but the global economy. >> is a very honest admission that the market sort of got away from you. >> the speed of the rally we've seen so far, opec must be concerned maybe about the speed with which it's over tighten the market. what would you say to that? >> we had decided way back in december, it looked like a long time now, that we would begin to meet on a monthly basis. this is the 1980's all over again. to make sure that we keep our hands firmly on the driving wheel. the fragility of the market and the world that we live in plus

covid requires opec to continue to meet every month to ensure that this market does not relapse into the huge imbalances that we saw last year. manus: with that in mind, there are number of things that could drive the agenda in 2021, your excellency. biden comes to power, we know he intends to return to jcpoa. is the opec group willing to make room potentially for that level of supply and 2021? >> i was asked in 2016 when we agreed in accommodating iran

after that jcpoa and we collectively decided at that time until they restore their capacity -- we have established a record of continuously being flexible and addressing issues as they emerge. i cannot predict what will happen. we are also following very closely these developments but rest assured that [indiscernible] manus: how much risk could shale be to opec and opec-plus losing

control again this year? how big a risk is shale to control? >> there is no doubt at all that oil producers have suffered the same fate as a result of the impact of covid-19 in 2020 continuing now. we have been in consultation with the u.s. through the independence and establish this line of communication in 2017 after the signing of the original declaration. we continue to meet with them including in 2020. we have seen contraction in terms of supply of about 2.5 million barrels a day in 2020 as

a result of the impact of covid-19. manus: the opec secretary-general there speaking exclusive to me from the gulf intelligence form. we will discuss worldwide access to the shot. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." let's talk about access to covid-19 vaccines. providing the vaccine regarding income level. one company that signed up his nigeria, which has the largest population in africa. however, nigeria is also aiming to procure further doses

directly from the manufacturers. i next guest is in charge of that scheme to roll vaccines in nigeria. the ceo of nigeria's national primary development agency. great to have you with us this morning. when will nigeria have its first batch of vaccine? >> good morning, thank you for having me. we expect the first batch of vaccine in the next couple of weeks, by the end of january. hopefully we will get additional doses in march. manus: which vaccine will you be getting, sir? >> we are expecting the pfizer vaccine in january and the moderna will be part of the second tranche of vaccines.

all the vaccines in the covax facility is what we will be getting in the first quarter of 2021. manus: the pfizer vaccine has to be stored at -70 degrees. how are you overcoming that challenge? >> really emerging countries, many developing countries also face the challenge of having adequate amounts of the appropriate equipment. what we have done in nigeria is reach out to the private sector and we're seeing now a situation where companies that usually use dry ice to transport fish have

now come together to work with governments to use this rise to be able to transport the vaccines to the national level. the collaboration with the private sector will help us transport the vaccines in the temperature that will keep them potent until they reach the last mile. for developing countries like nigeria, we have to make the best use of the situation, looking for solutions and smart ways and available technology to try to get the vaccine out there. i think this is what a lot of countries are also trying to do. to come around this difficulty. manus: smart logistics solutions to a difficult challenge. how many doses of pfizer will you get in the first batch?

>> around 100,000 doses. we will be focusing on trying to vaccinate the health workers, those folks on the front line taking care of patients. we will prioritize them because the sacrifice they've dedicated in the last year or so, trying to control the pandemic. manus: just give me a sense of the scale of the rollout. you've got 100,000 doses, give me a percentage of the -- a sense of the percentage of the population you hope to have vaccinated, perhaps the most at risk. just give me a sense of the rollout. >> the african union and organization have provided guidelines to vaccinate between 60%-70% of the population. we are targeting 70% of the

population, which is right around 150 million nigerians. in 2021, we are looking at being able to vaccinate over 40% of the population, prioritizing health workers and the elderly, those that have comorbidities or underlying health conditions that are likely to suffer more when they contract covid-19. once we are able to cover 40% and were hoping additionally 30% of the population in the second tier. we are focusing on how to get to the subnational level, using our experience and campaigns and knowledge from our other programs. manus: we need to understand whether you will go to 24 hours

of where the main hubs -- are you going to be a hub style rollout? >> that is exactly what we are going to be doing. we will be moving strong at a national level. will be focusing on getting vaccines such as the astrazeneca, were hoping will be able to employ those to the states and local government areas. manus: we wish you well with the rollout and bringing the private sector in to deliver the solution on the pfizer rollout. we wish you well with that. come back and let us know how you go through the pfizer rollout. coming up on the show, the

minister of international development for norway joins the show. the covax is just one pillar of the program. that's at 7:30 a.m. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." the french government has come out against the proposal for a takeover by a canadian convenience store group. saying the covid crisis has demonstrated the importance of domestic control. let's get the details with our reporter. here we go. the start of 2021 is all about

nationalism in the mna world. would morning, what do you make of the reports? >> think you so much for having me on the show. france is on fire. let's see what happen here, given comments from the finance minister. the social antitrust potentially, and job cuts that come with the transaction such as this. i think the companies are keen to at least hold talks and

explore ways to make it happen. but there are hardships that will have to be overcome. it remains to be seen if they recommend the current offer per share. we will keep an and it for sure. manus: certainly the legislation will scrutinize the deal for the potential of the transatlantic deal. that's it from me. anne-marie will be back with us next week. a quick snapshot of the markets. what is the $2 trillion stimulus? we are bandying around that number, but we don't really know what is in it yet. we will see what the biden covid

stimulus deal is. whatever it is, the market seem to be inured to it. and stocks are ignoring the italian debacle. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ good morning and welcome to bloomberg markets. this is the european open. we have some breaking news right now coming out from renault. the french carmaker to target more than 3% through operating margin by 2023. we will continue to bring you more headlines from renault. we will also have news on