pain and stress is the only thing you have to lose. get it and get it now. your body will thank you. (announcer) find out more at aerotrainer.com. that's aerotrainer.com. ♪♪ ♪♪ >> good morning from bloomberg's middle east headquarters. i'm manus cranny. it is day break europe. your top stories this morning. a new administration begins in america this week. the national mall will stand empty, but 25,000 troops are on stand by. growth in china hits prepandemic levels, it's the only major

economy to grow in 2020. can it endure? and europe's pandemic pain continues with renewed lockdown and travel restrictions. 6:00 a.m. in london, 7:00 a.m. in paris, she is back in the seat, we're joined again, annmarie, the debate is whether we have regime change, we have an administration change, is there a regime change in the market and what did the dollar do on friday, good to see you. annmarie: good morning, manus, i know you're loving that regime change in the bond market, the potential from goldman sachs 1.5, i know yesterday on your show, you talk about steven majors, 3.75% and i think today the dollar is going to be the big story with the dow jones reporting the fact that when yellen goes up for her confirmation, she is going to say that the market determines where the dollar should trade, not what the president of the

united states says, things the past four years with president trump. manus: absolutely, the rhetoric that came from the white house. she is going to use the language that the u.s. doesn't seek a weaker dollar and that will come through. the one thing to notice, we look at the dollar chart, have a look, annmarie, on friday. i had a day off on friday, i know that, an absolute split second motion where the dollar spiked by .7 of 1% on the back of the whole sort of implosion one could say of the bullish narrative. we can talk about about k.k.r. and goldman sachs, there is the dollar, the dollar shorts are mighty. we are seeing the shortest market since 2018, annmarie, what else caught your eye, is china enough to rally us along, what do you reckon? annmarie: that's the interesting thing this morning, the asian

markets, under some pressure this morning, manus with the futures market, u.s. futures are closed for martin luther king jr. holiday. we're kicking off the week risk off. the china data may be a potential to soften some of it, we had a lot of bad news over the weekend. trade tensions, d.c. has turned into a military fortress ahead of the inauguration on wednesday, rising infections and death, the pandemic once again in the forefront. manus: it is absolutely front and center. we're in the eye of that storm. let's talk about the headline data from china this morning. 6.5% in terms of gdp, the pickup where it left off really before the pandemic making china the only major nation that grew in 2020. let's go to our chief asia correspondent. great to have you with us. this rebound puts china in the

alpha position for 2021? >> it does in many ways, manus, it's something of a v shape recovery. it's been driven by public spending, on the other side, driven by big global demand for healthcare equipment and home healthcare devices, which has driven the exports expanded over the previous year. when you look at how the economy has finished the year, all of the metrics ended up in fairly good shape. we saw a full year of gdp come in this positive territory like you mentioned. it's the only major one, only major economy to have grown last year. all of the indications are that momentum will carry into the first quarter. annmarie: and can this momentum hold, though? >> well, i think there are two questions, annmarie, the first one is what is happening with the china consumer. retail sales actually slowed in

december, 4.6% in december from 5.5% the month before and that's because there still seems to be nervousness, caters and restaurants hit hardest, 17% drop in all of last year. the virus is under control, the retail side of things and of course we're heading into the big chinese new year holiday and china is dealing with outbreaks of the virus again and there are restrictions again. the consumer story will be tested over the coming weeks and months. if the consumer story can hold up and strengthen from year, china will rebound. the external story, exports are gang busters out of china. if that goes down, the western world starts to lose appetite for the healthcare goods, that's a drag on china's economy, too.

right now, it seems to be in good order and most economists are having a good quarter and year ahead for china's economy. manus: enda curran, chief asian correspondent, let's -- a growth rate, 8% growth in 2021 in china, that's more than the u.s., even the most bullish of goldman sachs, with that in mind, do you want more equity bond on your book for china going into 2021? good morning, norman. norman: good morning, the answer to your question is yes, yes, and yes. we are adding equity bonds and f.x. with regards to china across really the whole portfolio. that speaks to not only the cyclical recovery in china, but a transformation in the global

economy where it's taking its place alongside the u.s. as the most important economy in the world. annmarie: i want to pick up a point that norman mentioned, the retail sales, they came in softer for december, pretty decent gdp growth number. does this reflect the recent lockdown, something you are worried about or an aberration, the trajectory that this is a one off and this should resume? norman: yeah, i think china to a lesser extent than we see here in europe and the united states, it is still in the final stages of transitioning away from the pandemic era that we have seen over the last year. vaccines are still yet to be rolled out, it was pointed out, you are seeing some local outbreaks that they're looking to contain. from that perspective, i think to try and grow too rapidly at this stage of the recovery is probably not prudent.

i think that's the approach that the chinese are taking from a policy perspective as well. manus: let's dig a little deeper into policy and look at the one-day repo rate, we were looking at this. the narrative seems to be they're pulling liquidity for the first time, norman, in six months. will they get a bit tighter? norman: we think they'll get on the margin tighter, again, in addition to the recovery story the chinese are trying to play out, they're also under the hood trying to restructure some of the imbalances within the economy and in particular what we're seeing in leverage in the s.o.e., the banking system, so they don't want to repeat the rapid expansions that we have seen in previous recovery cycles that led to a debt problem further down the road. i think you're going to see this moderation take place as we move through the year as well. annmarie: we have some trade tensions overnight, norman,

trump administration told huawei suppliers including intel revoking their licenses to sell to the company. this comes days before a biden administration coming into the fray. does this make it harder for that administration or do you think because there has been tough talk on china having bipartisan support that they'll be able to deal with this? norman: i think they'll be able to deal with this. i think a couple of things are in play here. obviously, there is the u.s.-china angle, but i think it's also worth noting the recent investment agreement between europe and china really has put the u.s. in a more difficult position because they can no longer count on, if you like, a u.s. europe alliance to confront china. and so i think the u.s. is going to have to move a bit more cautiously as they try and revamp their china relationship. manus: norman: talking a little

bit more about the u.s. and that global narrative, the growth narrative in just a moment. i want to get a sense, when you hear statements we expect yellen talking about a free market determinant for the dollar, what does that do to the yuan and more importantly, the dollar narrative is going to dictate to a certain extent the e.m. exposure that people take. so set up 21 for me in terms of the dollar e.m. narrative for you. norman: yeah, look, we agree, we think the dollar is really key to, not only the e.m. story, but the recovery story that we're seeing around the world and while yellen is honest when she says the markets are going to determine the trajectory of the dollar, we believe the policy dynamic in the united states is one which is really pointed towards dollar weakness. and how we get there is the stimulus that we're going to see should start to push inflation and normalize inflation to a

certain extent in the united states and we are taking the fed at their word that they're not going to move rates and at some point officially or unofficially, we'll probably be in some yield curve control and drive real interest rates lower in the u.s. we think that is constructive for e.m. generally, though what i would say is we want to be a bit selective on the e.m. front obviously with the virus situation, it is very different depending on the e.m.s you're talking about. we would not wholesale be looking at e.m. debt or e.m. currencies from here. we're looking tore very selective in this space. annmarie: all right, norman, thank you so much, we're going to get more on what the outlook is in the u.s. next from the union bank staying with us. the first word news with laura right, good morning. >> good morning, annmarie, germany's c.d.u. has elected the

continuity candidate and its next leader. his leadership of the country's ruling party does not guarantee he will be nominated to be the next chancellor, but it puts him in pole position for the job and gives him a key role in shaping the policies of the next government. the u.s. government has reportedly notified several of huawei's suppliers that it's revoking its licenses to work with the company. the suppliers affected include intel, it's probably the trump administration's last strike against the chinese telecom company. no immediate comment from intel or the u.s. commerce department. the critic has been arrested on his return to moscow following his treatment in germany for poisoning. he was met by officers at pass port control when he landed on sunday. he was detained for violating the terms of a suspended sentence, he took the flight knowing he could face a lengthy

prison sentence. global news 24 hours a day at "bloomberg quicktake" powered by more than 2,700 journalisted and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg, manus, ann marie. manus: laura, thank you very much. goldman sachs races the growth forecast of the u.s. economy on the basis of joe biden's trillion stimulus plan. more to come, this is bloomberg. ♪ so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down,

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>> we're in a very fast nominal gdp growth. we haven't had that during past recoveries. the way you deal with that recovery from a central bank perspective has to be different and clearly the fed is taking all of these inputs and from our

standpoint, 150 to 200 companies around the world globally and what we see as an economy that will be poised to grow quite strongly coming into the second half of 2021. manus: harry mc vench -- mcvey talking about his outlook for the economy. ann marie. annmarie: it comes as goldman sachs has raised its forecast for this year and beyond on the back of president-elect joe biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus plan. norman is still with us. norman, i just want to go back to what manus brought in in the first part of the conversation is what we have overnight from dow jones but what we expect from incoming treasury secretary janet yellen talking about the fact that the market will decide where the dollar trades.

the past four years we heard president trump calling for a weaker dollar. many also feared the opposite of that, the u.s. would time-out a stronger dollar. with all of this now on the tail, where do you see the trajectory for the u.s. dollar? norman: we think the trajectory is lower, not a surprise seeing a bit of consolidation the last few days, but as the policy's initiative start to take hold over the next several months, the dollar continues weaker going forward. that should be supportive to the recovery and the u.s. economy and the recovery of the global economy ahead. manus: norman, part of the narrative that ann marie and i started the show, whether we're in a regime change with bonds. goldman is at 1.5, is that right? you've got steven major, .75. i want to take you both back to 1993, a piece, take a look at

this. this is when clinton had to scale back his ambitions in terms of his fiscal plan and the political advisor there, james carver, the quote, he came back as anything, he came back as the president or the pope or baseball cap, i don't know what that is, ann marie. the bond market has not flinched really in really bond moves, it hasn't moved with the fiscal narrative, has it? norman: no, it hasn't moved, and when we look at the policy trajectory for the united states, they're taking some pages of the book of the e.c.b. and the bank of japan. we're of the view, what the fed has looked to do is push real yields in the united states,

minus 1% on the normalized 2% inflation rate. we think they're going to continue to pursue it going forward. we need to see inflation really move above that 2% target. we don't think that's the case on a sustained basis for much of 2021. maybe that's a 2022 discussion from here. from that perspective, yes, there is some concern on the upside from here, but we think bonds are more volatile, probably stabilize here 1.5 going forward. annmarie: what does this mean if year going to see even a little bit of higher bond yields, what does it mean for risk appetite when it comes to global equities worldwide, that hitting average is just baseball excellence, think of babe ruth. norman: i think when we look at the scenarios, i think a lot of people are fearful of the 2013

paper tantrum type of move, 150 basis points move in 10-year yields in three or four months. the trajectory looks more like 2016 where you saw the same 150 basis point move, that was spread out over two years as the economy was normalizing and inflation was coming up and real yields were trending higher. that's the trajectory investors should be looking at rather than what i think the fed will acknowledge was a bit of a mistake in 2013 that resulted in the paper tantrum. manus: yeah, let's be frank, that's their single biggest worry, and that's why they smacked that tantrum. what do you think of the u.s. recovery, is it around a vaccine rollout, what is it that worries

you most? norman: the thing that worries the most is the fiscal momentum. when we look back over the last 10 years, if you like, we can count on the fed to react when they needed to react. what we see both in the u.s. and to a certain extent in europe, i think they all recognize we're in a crisis situation, we need the fiscal now. the question is will they continue to do that as the numbers stablize and continue the spending that is required to really support and transform these economies post-pandemic. that's a bit of the uncertainty as we look into 2022. manus: norman, thank you very much. norman joining us. can we pause for thought here, i'll see you and raise you, annmarie on baseball. babe ruth's batting average was .342. that comes from the producer of the show. we can debate -- annmarie: .348.

manus: ok, this is going down the pike, ok, norman, thank you, you're a brave man standing in-between two baseball people. i know nothing, she knows everything, that's this show. on the show, the bulls in china or are they in the china shop i should say, the equity analysts are bullish on the companies the most in a decade are russian. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: it's day break europe with manus cranny in dubai, that's me, and she is back, annmarie hordern in london. so the bullish calls roll in, annmarie from asia on china and they keep rolling in, the most bullish on chinese companies in a decade. julie has been arbitrating between the bulls and the burrs, what took your eye, jules?

>> we're looking at the bulls, manus, the benchmark index which has been holding near highs, a retracement coming through today, 86% of all calls on the 5,600 stocks in that index on bloomberg have a buy rating. this is the strongest we have seen since 2011 and also sees the number of bullish forecasts for that index. other parts, south korea for the first time since 2011, we have an upside of a 5% percentage point gain in terms of these buy recommendations and analysts pretty bullish on the likes of south korea, hong kong and india, all of those indexes have bullish ratings surging three quarters overall recommendations, there are concerns whether it's outstretched, j.p. morgan's raymond chang says he is not

worried. buy equivalents are making up half of the ratings on the topics and less than 50% on the asix200. this is because you're seeing flare-up with the virus, japan under that state of emergency and australia's diplomatic rao with china, the outlook for japan is mixed but opportunistic from sidney, there is plenty of opportunity for australia to catch up here and t. rowe price, and the one to watch and we had that reflected in the strong gdp numbers in terms of the bullish outcome for china for 2021. annmarie, manus. annmarie: certainly was definitely good gdp data coming out of china. thank you so much. looking at the csi 300, one of the markets are doing well this

morning, more than 1%. one thing i found very interesting comes from david over in hong kong. he was saying how economic output since 1992 comes out 9.3% for china, the shanghai, the same exact time is 9%. 2020 talks about the stock market, not the economy. a long term basis in china, manus, it looks like it can be. manus: it depends on fiscal policy, does it balance, i.n.g. notes, you can expect one-year, five-year rates to remain, rates pretty much unchanged but it is going to be down to the fiscal component. it's about the impacts on banks in the u.s., annmarie, in the u.s. annmarie: certainly, that's coming up on the show. we'll take a closer look at the u.s. banks, wells fargo took charges for restructuring. that's coming up next.

this is bloomberg. ♪

>> manus and i are very excited to have you on. manus: hey, tim. good morning. g. >> good morning. from bloomberg london, city of london, i am annmarie hordern, with manus cranny from dubai.

here are today's top stories. a new administration begins in america this week. the national mall will stand empty for 25,000 troops. growth in china hits pre-pandemic levels. it's the only major to grow in 2020, but can it sustain? europe's pandemic pain continues with renewed lock downs travel restrictions. manus, very good morning to you. i am coming from not the european headquarters but my home in london so nice to be back in action with you. we have a really big week ahead although markets are closed for martin luther king jr. holiday. we have inauguration, anton of central bank news. to kick it off, we have this report from the dow jones about what janet yellen is going to say about the dollar, tomorrow. manus. manus: she's going to be judicious. she will say she wants a market rated dollar moving away from

that interventionist style over the past four years for the presidential commerce, other people trying to walk this back. we can always ask can we move hq from central london to where you are located? there is your charter up on the day. the boss might have something else to say about that. what you want to look at is the bigger move you had on friday which i think still shows the dollar range resplendent when it comes to moments of real angst in these markets, ramping by .7% so that just shows you it can be -- the biggest one-day move since the spring of last year. annmarie: one tail risk was that maybe they would tout a strong u.s. dollar policy but she's going to say, listen, the market drives it. i will show you what is going on in asian equity trading as i mentioned. the u.s. closed for the holiday but european equity futures are lower alongside the asian

benchmark, lower this morning by .3%, even though we did have solid and good gdp numbers coming from china. we had trade tensions overnight from a trump administration when it comes to huawei. we have the pandemic. the u.k. shutting its borders. germany thinking about a national curfew overnight, plus wednesday, we have inauguration where do you see has basically -- d.c. has basically turned into a military fortress. there's a lot of risks that remain in this market. wall street results, jp morgan, citi, and wells fargo cut their reserves. that has helped their growth profit top estimates even as they face multiple headwinds. michael bloomberg the company x x its management business to be a driver of growth. -- the company expects its management business to be a driver of growth. >> we are moving with urgency and we set the bar for ourselves

higher than others. investors or other constituents. we really want to make sure we can move the agenda forward. we need to do it in the right way. we need to do it in a way that is controlled and in a way that helps us achieve our objectives in servicing our clients and really being there to support our clients which starts with having a strong balance sheet. we saw that in the quarter. liquidity levels are really strong. we have seen good performance in our underlying credit portfolios so having that foundation to work from i think is going to be really important. annmarie: you got a lot of questions about the asset cap on the call. i know you are knot in a position to talk about that, but while it is still in place, where do you see your big growth drivers? mike: when you look across our businesses, and a big part of the reason i came to the company, is we have very strong positions in a lot of our underlying dismisses and that is as true today as it was, you know, before i joined. either it is our middle market

business and connecting that better with our investment painting business, our of wealth management business, extending more what we do with our clients in terms of the mending we can do for them and other banking products we can provide for them, it's better capture in our consumer lending business, better capture of the activities our consumer banking clients, you know, are doing in that space. so i think there's a lot of opportunities we think we have embedded within our franchise as we start to execute better across the different essences. >> over the last few years -- different businesses. >> it's been a relatively stable and predictable interest rate environment. right now, the predictability is not quite there. a lot of people not quite sure when rates will rise or how fast they may rise. how is that factored in right now to your outlook? >> we have seen some of that volatility in the last couple of weeks where we have seen things move around quite a bit used on

the long end of the interest rate curve. so that's definitely something we are thinking a lot about, but i think it first starts with the economic recovery that we need to see and that's really what's going to drive interest rates up over time, so if you believe the base case that is out there, we should start to see some acceleration of that recovery if we get in the middle or latter part of next year and all the stimulus that is out there and has been out there over the last number of months and quarters, future stimulus is going to be important and all the work that, you know, we and other banks are doing to be there to accommodate our clients, i think it's equally important. manus: that was wells fargo's cfo. wells fargo was one of the worst performing stocks. 3.46%. why? let's investigate on that narrative. tim morgan is a desk strategist

for simtech and u.s. financials at kp w. thank -- kpw. thank you for joining us. we saw that loan-loss release last week in the market. will we see a more substantial loan-loss release going through 2021? good morning. tim: thanks for having me on this morning, manus. the short answer is yes, but i think more releases will occur through this year, although the interesting thing about stimulus is that it will be actually allowing the banks to extend the time frame we are expecting them to experience releases over into 2022. annmarie: does this affirm your bullishness on credit, what we saw from the banks, on those loans, releasing those loans? tim: yes, it did, actually, but

the interesting thing that we saw is that for j.p. morgan, most of the releases they gave were to do with their banking divisions so we have not seen releases when it comes to their larger consumer and commercial and industrial lending businesses and the same with wells fargo that had been released. it was related to their sale of the student lending division. in the case of all of these banks, we still have a long way to go before we see the releases that are potentially to come from their mainstream lending businesses. manus: how do calls from goldman sachs and the ilk of 6.5% growth in the u.s., these calls are rising. the consumer has more money in their pocket. 85% of americans will qualify for a pandemic check us out to speak or fiscal relief. just factor that in us and how

should we look at those two? tim: that's a good question, manus. i think the main thing for us is the stimulus is helping to prevent the u.s. banking system from seeing what would have been a much worse experience of consumer credit losses. normally, they follow unemployment and unemployment has been cap very low, has been kept low by a number of measures. it has allowed a lot of people not only to continue putting food on the table but it has allowed americans to take down their credit card balances so as we come through this, hopefully within a year or so, we should see those things start to go back up and that will help earnings for banks. annmarie: does the divergence in europe -- there is a diversion's about buybacks. the fed lifting the ban on the banks is especially welcoming in the united states. the ceo mentioned it on there,

as something they want to do. does this make u.s. banks much more attractive than their european peers? tim: absolutely. i'm based in london. i would like to say better things for what is happening in europe. in the last crisis, the u.s. is coming through much more quickly than its european peers. we are expecting the largest of the u.s. banks to buy back 9% to 17% of their shares between now and the end of 2022, and that feeds back into the earnings per share growth as well. manus: that playing field, one of the last ceo's to leave ubs. the playing field was never level. i want to talk to you about citi. two of the banks you are recommending is citi and wells fargo. you are a contrarian.

they really went after james fraser. how are you going to close the gap? you have no depth. are you contrarian? and why do you like citi? tim: we tend to like cheaper stocks. it comes with the territory during the research that we do but the short story is that, particularly -- we are looking at credit improving, and we are looking at buybacks coming in to help our banks, and for boti city and wells fargo -- both citi and wells fargo, they can benefit the most from buybacks. the other thing that we like about citi -- while at heard on friday for them to come down about 7%, 8% each, it's important to bear in mind these stocks are up about 50% since the end of september so it's not unusual to have a little bit of that buy on rumors, salam news

as become -- cell on news -- sell on news as we come into the quarter. we should boost the stock to help shareholders. annmarie: i just want to ask you about the incoming biden administration. overnight, we heard gary ken slow is going to be biden's pick . should ceo's be worried? is this a signal that the incoming administration will be a lot tougher on the financial services industry? tim: i think our bottom line on this is that while we do believe that the democratic administration is a little bit more likely to be tougher on the financial services industry, we still have a 50-50 senate. we are still expecting most aspects of regulation to be relatively moderated. nothing extreme. we have not seen elizabeth warren in a position where she

can do some of the more extreme forms of regulation that we were worried about. annmarie: tim morgan, thank you so much for joining us. strategist at kbw. let's get a recap of some of the other news, your first word news with laura wright. laura: china's economy expanded last year, the only major nation to avoid a contraction in the fourth quarter. it recovered to growth rates not seen since the start of the pandemic, pushing the full year expansion to 2.3 percent. china could top the u.s. as the world's largest economy by 2028, according to nomura. raising its outlook for the u.s. economy due to joe biden's $1.9 trillion revival plan. the banks economists expect growth of 6.6% in 2021, faster than previously thought.

goldman's estimate is the second highest in bloomberg survey. the median is just 4.1%. the u.k. is stepping up its coronavirus vaccination program. it plans to offer the shots to millions more people as the country shuts its borders to anyone who has not tested negative. the vaccine rollouts will be extended to the third and fourth highest priority groups. those aged over 70 and those deemed extremely vulnerable. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am laura wright. this is bloomberg. manus, amory -- annmarie. manus: thank you very much for that. d.c. on high alert. the american capital turns into a garrison ahead of joe biden's inauguration. we will discuss. this is bloomberg. ♪

annmarie: good morning. this is "daybreak europe." i am annmarie hordern alongside manus cranny. before the stimulus comes, the inauguration. thousands of national guard troops have been deployed to washington, d.c. the city is on high alert with cities receiving multiple reports of violent threats. joining us now for more is derek wallbank. set the scene for us. the picture is coming out of washington, d.c. the videos coming out of washington, d.c. are shocking, to be honest. what do we know about these violent threats? derek: i think i would agree with you entirely.

if you look around washington, d.c., and you see the u.s. capitol to be this vision of blocked off streets and giant fences, and even some razor wire on top of those fences, i mean, it's a totally different city to the one that i worked so long in. it's heartbreaking to see it last way -- see it that way, but it is a recognition that just a couple weeks ago, the u.s. capitol was stormed by supporters of the defeated president. it might not be an overreaction. it's kind of preparing for the worst with the worst very firmly in your brain so that is the security posture that joe biden is going to be walking into, with a very atypical in operation.

this time with covid-19, there were not going to be many anyway and now there might not be any at all almost. it's going to be an inauguration like you haven't seen in recent memory. manus: the images coming from washington takes me back, growing up in belfast in the 1980's with soldiers, guns drawn, and barbed wire everywhere. what will biden deliver? healing, policy? what will it be? derek: look, i think biden recognizes that he is coming in as a new man at a new day but these problems are not going away. he's going to come out to try and project some spirit of healing. biden ran for president really

on what one might call a return to normalcy. he's going to urge unity, he's going to urge coming together. it's a very tall task. it will require the willing compliance of a lot of rank and file republican voters. many still don't believe biden legitimately won this election despite all evidence to the contrary so it's a very tough thing. at the same time, you will also see a white house coming in that is ready to go on day one. if he's going to err in some way between am i going to be too progressive or institutionalist, biden has said, if i mess up, it will be by putting too many institutionalists on there. that might not be a mess up.

some of the people who are more ideological in his party might have wanted to see some of their own, but what biden did is he putting people who are ready to go on day one. you will see the white house ready to put out executive orders to reverse what trump has done in recent months, during his tenure. expect a lot of action on day one. i don't think it will be. manus: thank you very much for setting the stage for us. joe biden's ambition is 100 million vaccines. xiao jie says that is doable. we -- found she set -- dr. fauci says that is doable. what have you got? annmarie: more politics, manistee had merkel -- more

politics, manus. what is in store for germany's ruling party ahead of the national elections, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: it's "daybreak europe." i am manus cranny in dubai. and maureen horta and -- annmarie hordern alongside me. that is as the party kicks off preparations for september is national elections. on the phone now from berlin is our reporter. way to have you with me. what does this leader choice say for the cdu? >> just by becoming the cdu leader, it doesn't necessarily mean he will be the candidate in september. it does show the way that the

party is planning to go, which is very much, as you say, in the vein of to naming merkel's legacy by picking one of her strong loyalists of their new leader. they are basically saying they want to keep on the merkel track, which has also loosely -- obviously been doing well for her for the last years he will be centrist and pro-european. he is a big fan of emmanuel macron. but it is less clear how he will be received by the new biden administration because he also supports some of merkel's policies such as supportive of huawei. integration into the 5g network. they have obviously both been criticized in washington. annmarie: so we know that he is on the merkel train so to speak. what does this mean for other parties in germany vying for the

chancellery? agatha: basically, they have picked a centrist, somebody who follows merkel. merkel has been a very successful chancellor for the last 15 years on the basis of pulling in a lot of votes that would usually have possibly gone to slightly more left-wing parties like the spd and the greens. by picking a centrist candidate, they have kind of undercut the argument of the greens and spd that they are significantly distant from them. for the spd, they have very left-wing leaders. for their candidate, they picked olaf scholz, who is going to be their option for chancellor, so in that sense, merkel would have to -- merkel's legacy would have to be debated between the person who will follow her within the cdu and options i olaf scholz from the s -- options like olaf

scholz from the spd. annmarie: agatha cantrill from berlin, thank you. that's all the time we have left. that does it for "daybreak europe." anna and matt are next. the strong gdp numbers from china, not enough to turn red to green on the screen this morning. manus: indeed. growth is not enough. ♪

anna: good morning. welcome to "bloomberg markets: european open." matt: good morning. welcome to -- [laughter] anna: apologies. matt: we both welcome you. glad you are back, anna. it's a great day to have you back, kicking off this week. the markets say don't expect a weaker dollar. the greenback