joe biden becomes 46th president today. the celebrations have been replaced by a military lockdown. in his final hours, president trump partners dozens but none for himself and his family. jack ma resurfaces for the first time since beijing began clamping down on his empire. shares in alibaba surge. good morning, everyone, and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." tom and francine from london and new york. tom, a huge day in washington. we will have full team coverage. a different feel partly because of covid, partly because of the insurgents january 6. many more security measures have been put in place. i think we have some breaking news out of the biden administration. just breaking on the bloomberg terminal. we understand he will sign 15 exec of actions today, right after the inauguration, to undo some of the actions in the past

that president trump had been taking. the executive orders include plans to rejoin the paris climate pact and stop construction of the border wall. we will have plenty more on that . tom, are you seeing anything else? tom: it is a shifting era, 15 orders out of the many more that will be addressed in the coming days. it really signals, francine, the choreography of this day. obviously an original choreography coming back to the sense of the modern inauguration, which i am going to put with teddy roosevelt, and of course you can go back to lincoln's iconic first speech and back to the founding fathers. the ballet of the day begins here in new york and washington, at 5:00 a.m., with significant statements by the new administration.

for more on this, let's get straight to marty schenker, bloomberg editor-at-large. 15 executive orders on day one. does this give us the tone and the speed at which president elect, soon to be president biden wants to go? >> i think it does, francine, and it is interesting, the difference between this administration in the previous administration. there was a full briefing for borders in advance, it was all held under embargo. weston's were answered. -- questions were answered. this is quite front -- this is quite different. what is so -- francine: what is so significant? we understand that this is more day one executive actions than any of joe biden's predecessors. what will change for the american economy? what is the most significant thing that the president will do today? >> a lot of those things that

are truly significant, he will not be able to do by executive order. a lot of these things are symbolic gestures. for instance, immigration reform is extremely controversial. he is putting it as -- before congress, but there will be a pitched battle over that one. there are other -- the actions on the paris climate accord probably don't have an immediate impact. tom: it is a day of symbolism, and obviously this is a keyword for this new administration, unity as well. dick durbin of illinois is looking for some form of conversation with republicans. what is the marty schenker calculus about how we get 10 unity on capitol hill? marty: one of the first things they have to do in terms of showing unity is figuring out how to actually undertake the impeachment trial of president

trump, who, as we all know, is leaving office at noon today. if they can work out that understanding in the senate, along with how power-sharing will go in the senate between mcconnell and schumer, then you might actually see some joint legislation happen in congress, with what we all think of as a biden honeymoon. tom: totally unfair to bring up with you, but you have such years of perspective, and i think the hillbilly talk to this up as well, and i saw a chat on msnbc as well. do you just presume that there were "secret partners" that are granted but not visible until necessary? marty: i actually don't have any idea whether that is true. what is interesting to me is the narratives and what is going to

dominate the news cycle. is it going to be trump's pardons, or does joe biden's inauguration and executive actions overtake donald trump's final actions in august -- in office? tom: what do you look for today in the speech? i believe unity is front and center, but we listen carefully. what do you listen for? marty: i will listen for where he thinks he can reach compromise with republicans on getting things done in congress. i am sure he is going to be quite eloquent, bringing the country together, but as a practical matter, where haik -- where can he and i policy with republicans? francine: there is speculation from u.s. media that donald trump will form a new party. how do the republicans deal with that? how much support with a lose from the republicans? is there anyone in the republican party that movement

or that party? marty: it is interesting, the idea of a third party has never done well in u.s. politics. ross perot could not pull it off. there is no history in the u.s. of a third party being successful. but i do think it is true that the leader of the traditional wing of the gop two years down the road or four years down the road is not clear at all. and who can marshal those forces is going to be something we have got to watch carefully over the next few years. francine: what will you specifically look at during the inauguration? the speech at 12:00 p.m. that the president actually gets, new york or washington time? is there anything in terms of pageantry that will capture your imagination? marty: well, i think that the iconic departure from the white

house of donald trump this morning, conjuring visions of nixon's departing the white house, will be unprecedented. i think those images will probably be among the most dramatic. tom: i agree with that. this harkens back to the resignation of, i believe in 1974, of richard nixon. a lot of people commenting here on the compare and contrast to richard nixon. i believe at andrews air force base, we will see a formal display by president trump. who will be there and who will not -- vice president pence is not going to be there. it's that simple, right? marty: that's right, he cannot be in both places. we reported in bloomberg yesterday that they were having a hard time willing to go to that event at andrews air force base. so i expect a very tight video shot, but it will pan out and we

will see how big the crowd is in donald trump's final video message to address the country. francine: marty come as always, thank you so much. stay with bloomberg. for our full coverage of the inauguration. our lineup of guests include connecticut governor ned lamont and former new york police commissioner ray kelly. special focus on what it means for the u.s. economy. let's get to the bloomberg first word news in london with emma chandra. emma: last-minute pardons and commutations from the white house. last night president trump part his former strategist, steve bannon, accused of defrauding investors who donated money to help build the wall along the border with mexico. the president also part wrapper -- wrapper lil wayne and, kilpatrick. joe biden's inauguration today will be unlike any other.

the usual backdrop of celebration has been replaced by a military lock on. about 25,000 national guard troops will be providing security in the wake of the riots at the capitol. it is a sobering milestone. the u.s. has gone over 400,000 deaths as a result of the coronavirus. it has also seen 24 million infections. that makes the u.s. the global leader in both categories. joe biden has vowed to speed up the vaccination process. new york governor andrew cuomo needs a nice chunk of that stimulus proposal that president-elect biden is pushing. cuomo warned of tax hikes if he cannot get $15 billion in aid. he says he will sue the federal government if new york does not get what he calls his fair share. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i am emma chandra. this is bloomberg. francine? tom? tom: futures up 13, dow futures

up an equivalent 59. nasdaq does better, 13,085. the vix -- other than that, pretty much a turn to the market. i noticed the sterling buttressed up 1.37. 1.3696. jack ma makes an appearance, listing alibaba -- lifting alibaba. francine: i have been watching a lot more netflix. they have some great french movies on, tom. tom: i heard, yeah. francine: european stocks, tracking u.s. equity futures, tom. we had encouraging news. i'm looking at the luxury sector. burberry did not do so great, but richemont is having pretty good result in china. we speak a lot more about the inauguration and some of what president biden -- soon to be

president biden will do on his first day in office. jason furman, harvard professor, joins us at six: 30 -- at six 1:30 a.m. in new york, 11:30 a.m. in london. and this is bloomberg. ♪ so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business.

this week -- pres. trump: this week we inaugurate a new administration and keep america safe and prosperous. we extend our best wishes and we also want them to have luck. mr. biden: is deeply personal

that our next journey to washington starts here, a place that defines the very best of who we are as americans. i know these are dark times, but there is always light. tom: the two presidents, and they will not cross paths today. it is the capital of the united states of america, and it is good to see it in dark because in daylight it is a very different view than any other inauguration this nation has faced before, even back to times of the civil war. i believe the calendar this morning, there is a 12 noon swearingen. according to -- swearing in. i know alix steel and guy johnson have some special conversations at 10:00 a.m. as well. she will go to the freedom plaza, a hunk of concrete in northwestern washington, with a great heritage of civil rights, with a great heritage of the

domestic politics of washington. emily wilkins briefs us this morning. emily, what will you watch for? what will you watch for? emily: mostly keeping an eye on security measures in downtown the sea and the capitol area, and from there i think it will be waiting and watching for a biden, for his speeches, how it is delivered, if we get any final messages from trump in his last few hours as president. tom: we first see the president of the united states migrate out on his way to florida as well. how is the president's trip to andrews air force base and onto florida being taken by both republicans and democrats? emily: when biden initially heard that trump would not be attending his inaugural ceremony, he said it is one of the few things that he and trump agreed upon. i think there is a sense that

trump is a divisive figure at this point. a number of republicans including mitch mcconnell has laid blame at his feet for the rights that we saw at the capitol. i don't think there is a lot of love loss as he heads to mar-a-lago today. francine: the new president, joe biden, will sign at least 15 day one actions. do they come into effect straightaway, or is there a process that will take much longer? emily: the thing about exec at of actions is that they do allow the president to move fairly quickly. yes, there will be some things that the biden administration wants as far as larger immigration reform, tax reform, that will take longer, but a couple of these things biden can do pretty quickly as far as rejoining the paris climate accord, the case -- revoking the keystone xl pipeline, all things that he does plan to sign on his first day. francine: is there anything in

these executive orders that makes you think that he is not reaching across the aisle as he could? emily: i mean, these are all definitely priorities for democrats. these are also rolling back a lot of the trump administration policies that were put in place, basically thinking of this package is biden coming in and undoing in revoking a number of the trump administration policies in the last four years. so in that way it is not particularly a broad bipartisan. tom: describe what happens in the senate today. esther mcconnell adjourned yesterday, mr. schumer comes in. -- mr. mcconnell adjourned yesterday, esther schumer comes in. is it like grade school where everybody changes desks? emily: there will be some changing of the desks because of seniority and moving up and whatnot. but the big thing today is that we are going to see those three new democratic senators be sworn

in, bringing the senate to a 50/50 split. remember, that does give democrats the majority because you have vice president kamala harris to break any ties. we are still waiting on mcconnell and schumer to detail exactly what a 50/50 senate will look like. they were engaged in negotiations yesterday over exactly how power-sharing bill burck. tom: is part of this -- how power-sharing will work. tom: is part of this that she will set upcourt there, with that decisive vote day after day? emily: joe biden doesn't hope so. joe biden hopes that he is going to be able to work with mcconnell as well as other republicans, passing in a bipartisan manner. we have a partisan times right here. if republicans decide they do not want to go along with joe biden or feel they cannot go along with his agenda, then i think we are going to see kamala harris on the floor of the senate a number of times in the

next two years. francine: there is speculation that donald trump could form a new party. what does that mean from the loyalty he gets from members of congress? emily: i think there are members of congress where constituents are very loyal to trump, perhaps more so than any given party. one thing to note here is that this would be an entire u.s. history lesson. the way that our country is set up, it is very difficult for a third-party to emerge and to gain the political power and political momentum needed in many places. and so while there are a number of individuals out there, voters who feel they are more loyal to trump then either party, getting a third-party off the ground might prove particularly difficult for the president. tom: emily wilkins, thank you so much. on the streets of washington, d.c., an historic day for our nation. alix steel and guy johnson with

important conversations. jason furman is scheduled to join us here in a bit. later today, the gentlelady from new jersey, christine todd whitman, in the 1:00 hour. stay with us. this day of inauguration, this is bloomberg. ♪ - [announcer] imagine having fuller, thicker, more voluminous hair instantly. all it takes is just one session at hairclub.

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leigh-ann: this -- emma: this is bloomberg

surveillance. i am emma chandra. joe biden will cancel the keystone xl pipeline today hours after becoming president. they will kill a cross-border project that had won a four-year reprieve under president trump. the biden administration says the pipeline did not serve the national interest. netflix ended the biggest year in company history with a surprised. the world's leading page streaming service added more customers than expected. and said it no longer needs money to build its entertainment empire. it now has more than 200 million customers. shares of alibaba jumped to co-founder -- jumped as founder jack ma reappeared. he spoke briefly during an annual event he hosts to recognize -- that is the bloomberg business flash. tom? francine? tom: on a day of politics and the choreography in washington,

there are markets. futures up 13, the vix comes in nicely, 22.26, clearly an indication of tone off the secretary of treasury nominee, chair yellen. i still call her chair yellen. i'm going to embarrass myself with yellen, francine. in two years, i am going to go "chair yellen," and she's going to say get your act together. francine: i was touched by the fact that she was doing it from home, but then she started talking about the dollar, and i had to listen in. i listened and i said this is going to be yellen actually talking about currency rates. it is going to be a change for us. tom: you nailed it, francine. this went through my puny brain yesterday. we are only -- only the secretary of treasury talked about currency, and she dials 1-8 hundred-chairman-powell, and she says start -- stop talking

about foreign exchange. under the inauguration it is a gift outright, a better market. francine? francine: we did also have encouraging news in terms of earnings. the focus is on the inauguration and there is a lot of talk about what we saw with alibaba, certainly on jack ma, but european stocks also taking stock, for example, with some of the luxury companies doing better than expected in china because they opened up earlier, and the money lost of chinese travelers abroad is now being spent domestically. coming up on bloomberg markets, the evercore co-chief executive, at 10:30 am in new york, 3:30 p.m. in london, and this is bloomberg. ♪

>> look to double our footprint across wealth management and asset management. >> it does need to consolidate and allow time help apply appreciation to move more in sync with the growth. >> if they stop these inappropriate actions -- >> at the moment, we really want to see the dust settle first on international relationships. >> i don't see the likelihood of a big change in policy with a change in administrations. ♪ francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. let's talk about the markets and

the inauguration. with us is john norman. john, thank you for joining us. inauguration, we have 15 executive orders joe biden will sign today. we heard from janet yellen yesterday. our markets on the right path -- are markets on the right path, or will we see a correction? john: a lot of people were surprised about how the old congress agreed on the stimulus in december. i think it also boosts inflation expectations. even though markets have moved a lot since joe biden's election, i do not see the full power of

what it will do for the economy. francine: when you look at the executive orders, is there a danger that the economy in the u.s. heats up, which means we will see a normalization of central bank policy before expected? john: there may not be any danger of that over the next couple of years. pre-pandemic, the economy struggled to get the overshoot. there is a cyclical issue, or slack. there are some structural questions that are still unanswered. i think this phobia about

destabilizing is premature. bond markets can price in a bit of a risk premium. i don't think it has to be something much more than that. tom: i am so glad you mentioned the word slack. i want to wrap that around pre-trumpian --dovetail the janet yellen slack. john: it is less than 2%, maybe 1.75%.

that's like will be eroded because the economy is operating . the point is, what is the gap that needs to be eroded? from that perspective, the arithmetic would suggest you might have a couple of years to run before the slack is eroded. economists will tell you this whole idea of full employment leading to inflation is a fuzzy concept. tom: away from your research, your thoughts on a commodity boom -- or are we buttressed up

against the traditional long-term resistance? john: this is a pretty ordinary commodity cycle. what is dominating is a demand list from all commodities plus a bit of supply management on the part of opec, and that leads to tighter balances in the metals market and the energy market. this is not a cycle that will decline 10%. it is a cycle that will be met with some release capacity on the part of opec and shale capacity. this is -- you still want to be long commodities. they could move 10-20% in price

terms. expecting a 50% increase next year, i don't think that is along the baseline the next couple of months. francine: let's get straight to bloomberg first word news. >> president-elect joe biden plans to immediately begin rolling back some of president trump's policies today. immigration, target change, and other issues through 15 executive actions. he stopped construction of the border wall. joe biden's cabinet picks signaling the new administration will maintain president trump's tough line with china. officials are bowing to fight what they call abusive trade practices and they would bar products -- beijing has been accused of genocide.

president trump has parted steve bannon -- pardoned steve bannon. he was charged with defrauding thousands of investors who believe there wall would go to -- their money would go to building a wall. the president also pardoned and commuted the sentences of dozens of others. president trump reportedly has discussed starting a new political party. he would like to call it the patriot party. he has feuded with several republican leaders. he retains strong support among rank-and-file republicans. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. tom: futures up 13, dow futures

up 68. david westin provided perspective with the former secretary of commerce. we will speak to mr. westin and the nuances of abiding administration -- a biden administration versus her obama administration. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: bloomberg surveillance. this day of inauguration. we look at the markets. john normand continues with us. your dollar call has been a

surprise, a certitude of weak dollar. you have 14 views. if me a 15th. john: i am not feeling very challenged by the move up in bond yields. the short end will stay at zero for a couple of years. the short rate drives the carry trade. i think of those as being favored for non-dollar currencies. there is one dollar positive force. i think the private investors are going to be much more driven by the funding rates. identify the current account

demands of the new biden administration. what is a first order condition for secretary of state and the rest on trade? john: the trade agenda is going to be to continue putting pressure on china to deliver on the phase one agreement and to deliver on a liberalization agenda that the biden administration favors as much as the trump administration did. the biden administration is going to be more methodical. the trump administration -- you have less impulsive moves from the biden administration. they will press a lot of the same agenda items that have been inherited from trump. there needs to be a revival of

the sanctions approach and that is not the kind of strategy these new cabinet officials are going to be pursuing. francine: when you look at asset classes, where do you see the most returns? john: the sectors that are incredibly leveraged and are a little more desensitize to the rise in interest rates. there are other markets that tend to go up when rates go up. because the starting yield is near an all-time low, you can have this odd element where spreads tighten and the total returns on asset classes is negative or barely above zero. that would be unusual. for clients looking for cyclical

assets, it would be to focus on things that are more detached from the rate market damage. the return is going to be mostly digits. tom: thank you so much. really important comments in this great debate of interest rates. joseph grogan working with president trump, the former assistant to the president, director of domestic policy. on the changing of the guard in washington. stay with us. david westin at 11:00 a.m. ♪

>> my fellow countrymen -- >> i, dwight d. eisenhower, do solemnly swear -- >> let us encourage individuals

at home and nations abroad to do more for themselves. >> ladies and gentlemen, the president of the united states. >> a few of us here today, this is a solemn and most momentous occasion. in the history of our nation, it is a commonplace occurrence. the orderly transfer of authority as called for in the constitution. >> president, neither prince nor pope, and i do not seek a window on men's souls. >> my fellow citizens, today we celebrate the mystery of american renewal. >> that i will faithfully execute the office of the president of the united states. >> i will exit kate -- i will

execute the office of the president of the united states faithfully. >> so help me god. >> that i will faithfully execute -- >> that i will faithfully execute -- >> the office of president of united states. ♪ tom: just a superb set of voices across the decades. thank you, sarah rappaport, a lot of work to put that together. joseph grogan, this is an important conversation because this is someone in the trances -- trenches of policy actually getting things done away from the pomp and circumstance. before we go to your wheelhouse,

i must ask you with your knowledge of the administration, the positioning of vice president pence in the last couple of days, what have you observed from the vice president as he looks forward? joseph: i think he displayed a lot of leadership and calm bipartisanship and stood up somebody who has devoted his life to public service and tried to encourage the american people that things will be ok. i thought he demonstrated a great deal of courage and a couple of weeks ago on the mall, before the mob attacked the u.s. capitol, standing up for the constitution and not falling prey to people pressuring to do something unconstitutional. the american people owe mike pence a tremendous debt of

gratitude. i do not know what he will do with his political career moving forward. it was a display of calm demeanor. tom: the prime minister of the u.k. tweeting out -- what is your to do list to jumpstart vaccinations? what can be the distinction dr. fauci and people like you can bring to make it a success for president biden? joseph: it is interesting that biden is bringing in andy's lavish -- andy. he was not looking to come back into government service. he had just moved and was looking to live outside of washington, d.c. he is more of a fix-it guy that he is an ideologue. i think it is a good sign they will be looking at things differently.

the number one thing they should be doing is getting more vaccine into the commercial channel and forgetting about all of the central planning. there is a need for government to get involved in reaching people who are disconnected from the medical system. we get people vaccinated all the time in this country as a matter of course. there is no reason why we should not be using this normal channel that we use for the vast majority of this and supplementing it with public health service corps. i am very skeptical of the deployment as a national -- of the national guard as a solution. it is going to breed skepticism. there could be a role for them and some of the mass vaccination sites but in many instances, the pharmacist is your number one health provider. they are more likely to be trusted then somebody showing up

in camouflage with a needle. francine: what is the biggest concern to date? is it that it is not being given to the right people? maybe your local pharmacist will gain more trust. or that the refrigeration and freezing temperatures? joseph: there is no -- the government dumped a bunch of money into the system. they move things all the time. those are the three pharmaceutical vendors. they are taking orders directly from the government on how to do this. they should bring those guys in and say, what would you do now -- put it on the table. how many doses would you buy from us? i would pay for the vaccine for myself and my family.

it may not be that i am in the preferred priority group that cdc wants, but so what, to be honest with you. we are in a race against time. maybe we have to get to 100 million people quickly, and i think it is within reach, but beyond that, it will be more difficult. i do not think it is an either or priority groups. i am optimistic that the biden team will take a fresh look at this and make some rational decisions. i am very encouraged by some of the decisions they have made on staffing and the life sciences and health care as opposed to their original choices. i think things are looking up for those of us who want to see biden -- francine: what you just said will be quite controversial.

you have to protect the more vulnerable. are there enough doses in the u.s.? joseph: there should be. all of these manufacturers continue to ramp up. i am hopeful we will get a johnson & johnson vaccine approved quickly. astrazeneca is vaccine has a role in lot of it. the point is not that we should not get the most vulnerable vaccinated. the point is that a shot in the arm is more valuable than a shot sitting in a refrigerator. trying to push everything through a narrow tube is not cutting the job done. there are other avenues to get more vaccines flowing. i do believe there is enough. they have purchased enough for a specific target at the end of the year and they did not hit it. there is surplus out there. it is not in the right places and not getting into syringes and into arms. tom: terrific brief, greatly

appreciated. thank you for your public service. former director of the white house domestic policy council. francine, there it is. sterling 2018 levels, continued sterling strength. francine: the vaccine inauguration process is working better in the u.k. than other countries in europe. france good catch up. for the moment, it is quite behind. we also heard from the bank of england in terms of inflation. i think we have inflation numbers and they were not nearly as high as they could have been. that has implications for future monetary policy. tom: remember 120? the world is coming to an end. francine: no longer. tom: futures up 15.

dow futures up 73. can president biden ci 19 vix -- see a 19 vix? 1.10 on the 10 year yield. gold up $13. bitcoin crushed, 34,800. we will not be talking bitcoin with jason furman of harvard. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ tom: this morning, joseph biden

will faithfully execute the office of president. he will preserve and protect -- he is protected by 25,000 national guard. 400,000 dead from a pandemic. from a mitch mcconnell to chuck schumer and a 50-50 senate. markets guesstimate the magnitude of stimulants, the magnitude of our debt stimulus, the magnitude of our inequality, the magnitude of unity. we welcome all of you worldwide in the darkness of the early morning of washington, d.c. francine, it is a different inauguration. francine: all eyes on what joe