pres. biden: i do solemnly swear that i will faithfully execute the office of president of the united states. and will, to the best of my ability preserve, protect, and defend the constitution of the united states. >> so help you god? pres. biden: so help me god.

>> congratulations, mr. president. [applause] francine: the united states inaugurates its 46th president. germany has issues with hospitals, and focused on christine lagarde and the ecb. well, good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." we will discuss the battle that joe biden will have on a stimulus package in congress. i am francine lacqua in london. of course, we will get a stimulus bill out of the u.s. we had the testimony that the relief package will actually be spent. the markets are not only focusing on that optimism, as

vaccines will accelerate, but global stocks are rising with the dollar. european shares rising. apologies. cyclical stocks as well as banks leading gains. now let's get to the bloomberg first word news. hi, leigh-ann. leigh-ann: good morning, francine. yesterday, more than 180,000 daily debts were announced with a chief executive saying it looks like a war zone. more than one million in the u.k. have had their first dose of the vaccine. secretary of state mike pompeo and other trump administration officials announced a move just as joe biden was being inaugurated. the white house says the last minute sanctions are unproductive, saying they are attempts to play on american partisan politics.

italy's giuseppe conte has won the backing of extra government spending. allowing it to raise more funds to fight the pandemic. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg @quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: leigh-ann, thank you so much. joe biden was sworn as as the 46th president of the united states yesterday. here is a look at the highlights. [cheers and applause] ♪ lady gaga: ♪ o say can you see ♪ >> one nation, under god, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all. vp harris: so help me god.

pres. biden: all right! [peers and applause] -- [cheers and applause] jennifer lopez: [speaking spanish] ♪ let's get loud ♪ pres. biden: preserve, protect, and defend the constitution of the united states. >> so help you god? pres. biden: so help me god. >> congratulations, mr. president. [cheers and applause] pres. biden: we have learned again that democracy is precious, democracy is fragile, and at this time, my friends,

democracy has prevailed. >> ♪ amazing grace ♪ >> there is always light, if only we are brave enough to see it. >> every human being, regardless of their choices, that this is our country, amen. ♪ [cheers and applause] francine: well, joining us this morning to talk about the inauguration is anthony gardner,

former u.s. ambassador to the eu. ambassador gardner, thank you so much for joining us. this is now day two of president biden, of his administration. how much division will there be in washington? mr. gardner: well, francine, thank you for having me on the program. there will be division, because more than half of the republican members of congress would not certify the results of the election. that will not be an easy thing to fix. but i will tell you this -- one of the reasons that i supported president biden in the beginning as if anyone can bring the country together, reduce the divisions, it surely is joe biden. he had a lot of experience doing it under the obama administration and in the senate. i think not only his professional qualifications but his personal characteristics, being a healer, we need joe biden now.

francine: ambassador, how does president biden fix this division? is it inequality that needs to be addressed, is a growth, gdp? what are the policies that can actually make politics more bearable? mr. gardner: the inequality has been with us for a while and has gotten worse for the last four years. there are a lot of things this president will put on the table. one is the minimum wage. a living wage. but also to change our tax system to ensure that those who can afford to pay more actually do so. tax reform is in some ways overdue, but i did skew the benefits it -- it did skew the benefits of that reform to the more wealthy. that needs are changed or that is a longer-term issue. a longer-term issue. shorter-term, we need to find some areas, infrastructure spending, tailor a stimulus program, leader of renewable

energy. we need to find ways we can work together for sure. the fact that the democrats now, potentially, have a swing vote in favor will help us achieve some of those areas, but that is not a solution, because, you know, one vote could swing the other way, and there will be partisan positions for sure. francine: ambassador gardner, it is not a number but may be a percentage that do not believe this was a legitimate election. should the biden administration worry about that? is there something more immediate they can do to try to make more people believe he is a legitimate president? mr. gardner: that is a great question, and i am not sure there is an answer to this, but maybe there should be some kind of commission that should be set up and look into this election to restate what a lot of people already know, that it was not a result of fraud, that it was a free and fair election. remember, there were more than 60 elections that alleged fraud,

and 60 of them, i believe, said there was no fraud. but perhaps we need something more because we cannot have a country where tens of millions of citizens believe that they were defrauded. that is a very dangerous situation. we need to look again into the role of online platforms and monetizing and promoting hate speech and propaganda. and i should just say, i want to say that you and bloomberg and quality media has done a terrific job over the past four years defending truth and defeating lies, and this is a line that biden used in his inaugural address, it is incumbent on all of us to do that, because democracy has shown to be fragile. francine: ambassador, when you look at some of the policies that joe biden has been placed, the $1.9 trillion package he put together, we have some coming up and showing misgivings about it. is there anything that makes you

think this will have to be watered down quite significantly, or at least a little bit, to then find common ground? mr. gardner: look, i am not an expert on the content of that package, but it is legitimate to have concerns about some aspects of the package, that some americans are going to be getting money when they did not necessarily need it, but it is too much stimulus, it sets up inflationary problems are the future, and so forth -- all of that is legitimate, but i do think we need further stimulus now in the middle of a pandemic, because if there ever was a time to engage in stimulus, it surely has to be now, at a time of extremely low interest rates, when we desperate need, you know, spending on infrastructure and in areas that can increase our economy. francine: does biden and his administration focus on domestic issues before looking at foreign policy? mr. gardner: look, clearly the band with his to be taken up by

the rating pandemic, inequality, for sure, but let's be clear, there are a lot of global issues that cannot just be put away for tomorrow. it's a long list. i mean, climate change is one of them. that is a big one that is, unfortunately, even closer to us. we have to engage right away, and we will. then there's dealing with china and reforming the world trading system, and that's also domestic issues that we saw, very much a domestic issue under donald trump, and quite rightly so. we need to engage with our allies. . that is not going away those are just two examples where we cannot postpone. the eu, for example, has to now return is a major partner of ours, particularly on reforming the abusive trading packages with china. francine, i find it bizarre that we have not engaged with eu, because it is a superpower in

terms of trade,, and they are more likely to address structural challenges with china working with china than going it alone. francine: thank you so much, ambassador anthony gardner, thank you also for the kind words. we were talking about dr. fauci addressing the world health organization, so we will follow everything and anything he says. we know that joe biden and his administration will focus on the first 100 days, possibly on getting the debt, coronavirus of the control. that means a vaccine distribution, making sure that we have cold chains, freezing temperatures to get them to the right people. coming up, yesterday, joe biden was sworn in as president, but is his stimulus plan giving fireworks? we will talk about his covid relief fund. this is bloomberg. ♪ d. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> there's no question that there is broad support for a second economic relief package. >> i think what governors need is not just short-term stimulus but probably something we could play out over the next couple of years. >> the initial proposal put forth by the incoming biden administration is double the size people were expecting. it will probably end up in the low-end of the $50 billion range,, which needs to come from the republican congress, the highest being one point $5 trillion. >> let's not attend we are not in an intensely partisan

environment, and joe biden wants to win on his agenda, and he will use every trick in the book to get it. francine: always a treat, especially on such an important day, after the inauguration and the ecb day. elga, a number of questions about what kind of recovery we will see given that we are still looking at, you know, which in many western countries look like war zones. the number of deaths also rising with it. but the vaccines and markets are supported by the central bank action. what you think is the challenge for the next six months? dr. bartsch: the biggest challenge, i think, by a longshot is getting control of the virus. there is a light at the horizon.

that will take away from an accelerated week commonly. this is not a regular business cycle. this is the aftermath of a national catastrophe, and that allows activity to normalize much more quickly than you would see in a traditional business cycle. francine: the stimulus package in the u.s., one point $9 trillion, if it goes through, ok, and the biden presidency has the vote for it, what does it mean for the outlook of the u.s. economy? dr. bartsch: first of all, we need to underscore that it was essential throughout the crisis, that the crisis is still ongoing, to bridge across the incomes and cash flows, and that a good chunk of the package is a fiscal support package more than a fiscal

stimulus package, but i think increasingly the u.s. is moving from fiscal support toward a fiscal stimulus, which is also needed to prepare for the post-covid world and address a number of challenges or structural trends that were accelerated through the pandemic and to inequality, as we heard in the previous segment. francine: are you worried that this will lead to inflation stronger than inspected, so -- from the banks sooner than the market banks? dr. bartsch: i am concerned we will see it over the medium term, not so much because of the fiscal policy come about because of the change in the monetary policy frameworks. we know that the federal reserve tends to be more tolerant of

inflation overshoot in the future, that they will worry about the labor market running too hot, so that, i think, amounts to a change in the federal reserve reaction function, and that, together with cost pressures caused by the covid pandemic, caused by globalization being rewired, will push inflation higher, but i do not think it will push interest rates higher. in fact, it will push real rates lower, that allows the economy to grow even stronger and support risk assets. francine: elga, dr. fauci is also addressing the world health organization, and seconds ago, he said the u.s. will join the vaccine covax, which trump aide said was -- had said was too

china-centric. what is your best case for allowing the economies to reopen or get back some of the gdp loss? dr. bartsch: it looks, based on what we see at the moment, the rollout of the vaccine, effectiveness, and other measures, the prevalence of the virus, that it will sort of drive the normalization of life and economic activity. it looks as if the u.s. and the u.k. are ahead of continental europe in sort of this race, and so we could come in the spring quarter, we could stop seeing some of the restrictions being, but for the moment, i think we are looking at longer and

stricter lockdowns than what we were expecting late last year. francine: elga bartsch, can the usb the driving force in terms of economic prosperity? is that the u.s. that will help also europe get better into 2021, 2022? dr. bartsch: the u.s. is certainly an important component, but i think we should not lose sight of the fact that it is actually china that is one of the economies that grew last year and continues to grow materially this year. that is actually the second largest economy, at the moment, very much an engine of global growth in asia, over in asia, and that is one reason why we like to see equity exposure in that region. francine: thank you so much,

elga bartsch from blackrock investment institute, stays with us. coming up, joe biden asked for unity. much more on that top story throughout the program. this is bloomberg. ♪ loomberg. ♪

francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am francine lacqua here in london. now, anthony fauci, the u.s. government's top executive

health officer, held a meeting that the u.s. will fulfill its obligations to the world health organization and that it will work to reform the organization. on to the markets. there's a lot going on in equities. we do not have any huge moves, but the focus is firmly on the stimulus package, the fact that they think it will still go through. we did see news on the pound, steadily rising, actually, this is news that it is the highest since 2018, 1.3745. it has been adding gains, fueled by slightly stronger-than-expected inflation data. that was on wednesday. we have plenty more on bloomberg . ♪

francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london.

let's get to the bloomberg first word news with leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: president joe biden has used his inaugural address to call on america to end its uncivil war. he said unity would be key to tackling the challenge of the pandemic and rescuing the u.s. economy. the inauguration was a stripped back event and the -- under heavy security, but it retains some of the usual pomp, including lady gaga singing the national anthem. the bank of japan is seeing a stronger rebound than expected. once the economy starts to recover. it predicts weaker growth at the end of the current fiscal year, that means a stronger growth, and later on it sees the 2021 expansion at 3.9%, up .3%. the central bank kept policy unchanged. indonesian investigators are looking into the automatic -- of the boeing jet that crashed into

the sea january 9. bloomberg sources say it was producing more thrust in one of the two engines. shortly before the plane crashed. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: ecb policy makers are again facing an economy gripped by the virus as they hold their first meeting of the year today. president christine lagarde said last week the central bank -- or the central bank separate economic growth projection are still clearly plausible. her up the tone is threatened by stricter that her upbeat tone is threatened by stricter lockdowns. joining us is dr. elga bartsch. when you look at the challenges the ecb has, how likely is it that they can do this before bro forecasts?

elga: i think we are looking at a situation where the european economy is double dipping and we will have negative gdp growth in the first quarter, not just in the fourth quarter. so the economic restart that we all are hoping for is likely to be delayed, and that could mean that it could be the same as the bank of japan, growth but later. and as a result, you know, it could sort of renew the debate, and i think would nip in the bud discussions of tapering in early reduction of purchases, and that is what i expect this afternoon? francine: do they need to

address the level of the euro? elga: i think they need to keep an eye on it, which they do. i don't think they need to address it because it has the power of -- in recent weeks. this is not an bigger concern than it was, but what markets are hoping to understand is what -- the clause that was inserted in the statement that references the preservation -- does that mean that the ecb is now implicitly targeted to financing conditions in the euro area, and with that also pave the way potentially to doing less if financing conditions would be enough already? and i think on the back of the account of the meeting, which

shows there was a lively debate, around this topic, i think there will be questions along those lines at the press conference. francine: how do you see them viewing this? at the moment, is it 100% convincing to say the ecb is targeting yield curve control even if they don't call it that? elga: to be honest, yield curve control in europe is a lot more predicable than it would be elsewhere because we are looking at -- predictable than it would be elsewhere because we are looking at the central bank. financing conditions would include some form of spread control. so it is an assessment of how much support the economy gets from the monetary side. but we need to be clear that with the coronavirus, where the economy is affected by the

virus, monetary policy has only provided an assist to the public health measures, the rollout, and the fiscal policy support, income cash flows across -- caused by the virus. francine: i'm looking at your weekly commentary that you've done with colleagues. you talk about this bipolar u.s.-china world, and then you mentioned the turbocharged transformations that we talk about. that may be investors don't fully understand what it means. how will our economies and the world look differently post pandemic? elga: i think it will look different, especially when it comes to the structural composition of the economy, the structural features, when economic activity is back to where it was before, back to the pre-pandemic growth, which is

something that we expect to have relatively quickly, and much more so than the global financial crisis, where we had a decade of declining -- another important difference is that we have seen an enormous about of change, the accelerated structural and secular changes, in economic activity. digitalization. social features such as an equality, the focus on sustainability and the resilience of business models and one important aspect of that is that rewiring of globalization on the back of the geopolitical situation and the arrival of -- the rivalry between the u.s. and china. francine: how do you see china overall?

they had some incredible growth figures. when is the point that china starts spending a lot more? elga: china really had a more effective and more radical control of the virus, and as a result it was able to restart activity more quickly in the course of last year and was the only major economy that actually expanded last year and is already returning not just to pre-covid levels, but also converting back to pre-covid growth. that is very encouraging, and as a result, i think in china you have a somewhat different discussion around policy stimulus, whether it is monetary or fiscal. it is more sort of a gradual normalization rather than adding additional stimulus, which is

where europe is at. it is the margin where the u.s. is at in the wake of the new administration being sworn in. francine: elga bartsch, thank you for joining us. do not miss our coverage of the ecb meeting throughout the day. the policy decision comes at 12:45 p.m. u.k. time. christine lagarde's press conference starts at 1:30 p.m. u.k. time. coming up, a daily record for global virus fatalities, but 50 million people have been vaccinated. that is coming up next, and this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london. let's talk about the vaccine race now, and bloomberg spoke to the moderna cofounder and chair, who said everyone across the vaccine supply chain is rapidly learning to overcome challenges. >> we believe that at least on our side, the production, the quality check, and the supply distribution capability exists for us to be able to play our part in meeting that objective, and so far nothing we see discourages us from continuing to work hard to do that. but i think the plan is to do that andy production is functioning according to our plan. -- and the production is functioning according to our plan. >> the urgency has never been greater in the fact that the vaccine is out there, it is available, it is just a matter of getting it. give us a picture of your production rate. will moderna be able to hit its

own target, 100 million doses this quarter, 100 million doses next quarter? >> we can do only as much as we are able to do, in the sense that nobody else has done this before. so another words nobody has gone from zero output of this particular type of product to what we hope by the end of this year will be a billion doses produced. it is important for us to understand that because that has not been done doesn't mean it cannot be done, but because it has not been done, we cannot just say, oh yeah, we have done this 100 times before. we are in uncharted territory medically, uncharted territory in terms of production and supply. what we can do is to plan, have various measures put in place to protect -- to compensate for

them. all of those systems are in place and are functioning, but until we have done that, we won't be able to point to having already done it as a reason. we think that 100 million doses as an objective in the coming couple of months, then another million by the end of the second quarter, is our commitment goal, and it is something we feel that we are on track to meet. lots of variables to get in the way. >> the vaccine shortages in new york and elsewhere are scary. you have people out there who have gotten a first those who do not know if they will get a second dose, and folks who have not gotten any vaccine yet at all -- i know that your distributor had an issue with the ice packs. that said, how many doses do you know may have gone unused in the

united states because of temperature issues? >> i don't have that information, and that is not information that is going to be ready to come by because we are dealing with hundreds of thousands of outlets and distribution infrastructure that is being run by mckesson and coordinated by the group that has been working, our counterparts in general. i think what is really important is that we are all learning at a very rapid pace, the various states are learning how they can get better organized, better forecast. there are issues with storage, purchases of two different vaccines that are quite different widths -- with different storage requirements, so we will all have to be ready to recognize that there will be things that we are doing that don't work perfectly well, and,

look, the frustration that we all feel is a different kind of frustration, that we were completely vulnerable to the virus and there is nothing to do about it. that -- now there is something we can do about it, and we have to get organized and make sure enough experience is accumulated. francine: the moderna cofounder and chair. let's stay on the subject and bring you up-to-date with the virus. the daily record that has been set for global fidelity's for's of germany has lost more than 50,000 people, and the u.k. saw its deadliest day yet with 1008 hundred reported deaths yesterday. across the world, more than 54 million people have received the vaccine, but the rolled out remains patchy. let hear from maria tadeo in brussels and laura wright in london. could actually be more lockdowns

and restrictions coming? maria: there could be more restrictions, but a lot is focused on the distribution, the european countries saying this needs to be accelerated in order to speed up the vaccinations. this is happening in a week that has been problematic for pfizer, which is still the lead in the vaccine for the europeans. they have had issues with production, and they have updated their production abilities long-term, but it is bad for the short term. also happening this morning, we have a paper that the germans will put forward potentially today to say that if there was a risk of mutation from the u.k. entering the european union, the e.u. should consider as a whole to restrict travel passengers entering the e.u.. that would be a similar travel ban to the u.s. entering the european union. that could have a diplomatic consequences, but it is an idea that is being pushed around in

brussels. we have indications that the germans do believe it is an option that should be considered, specially if that risk of virus mutation does crescendo and there is a risk that it could be transmitted to the european union. francine: laura, bring us up-to-date what is going on in the u.k., horrific deaths, over 1800 in the u.k. laura: yesterday the u.k. reported over 1800 coronavirus deaths, worst since the pandemic began, wringing the total number of u.k. fatalities to 92,000. daily press briefings, boris johnson's chief -- one and 36 people in the capital are currently affected. -- currently infected. the deployment program has been

expedited. over 4.6 million people have received the vaccine. on january 19 alone, over 340,000 people were inoculated. the goal is for 15 million to receive their first dose by february 15 so lockdown measures can be eased. why the u.k. government has decided to space out the time between the first and the second jab so that more people can be vaccinated in aggregate, it is worth saying we are now at group for in the government vaccination priority list. those who are age 70 or over. francine: thank you so much, maria tadeo and laura wright, looking at the vaccination process, and some of the numbers are horrific numbers, and our thoughts go to the families, and to those in hospitals first and foremost. coming up, record trading revenue helps wall street to better than most other industries. we will review the details next, and this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i think we are going to see a much stronger coordinated federal effort to rollout these

public health efforts that have fallen through with local health officials. >> one thing they should be doing is getting more vaccine into the commercial central channel and forget about all the central planning. >> we see vaccines being an important dynamic to getting out of the hole we are in. >> all rounds to prosperity in our country float through curing the virus. >> with a very clear federal partnership using their logistic ability, their manufacturing ability to make sure we don't run out of vials of syringes, their communication strategy to echo and re-echo a public health strategy, those are all missing. >> those i guess that we spoke with about the pandemic. let's get to one of our other top stories, the biggest wall street inks wrapped up earnings this week after morgan stanley

reported yesterday. trading revenue propelled -- ranking stocks have fallen since lenders began reporting. here are takeaways from bloomberg's dani burger. dani: one of the big takeaways is what you mentioned, just how huge last quarter and the entirety of last year has been when it comes to trading on wall street. this is not necessarily surprising. more people participating in equity markets leads to that, but what is new over the last earnings season come in a lot of these executive calls, they expressed skepticism whether it could continue on. morgan stanley and follmann sects saying in the earnings call -- and goldman sachs saying that in the earnings call it is unlikely that this can be repeated in 2021. in terms of other top takeaways, have seen other banks with those lost rivers -- lost -- those loss reserves. in the case of banks like bank of america, it came from the

consumer business, so that his confidence in the health of consumers, households, balance sheets, and we also saw that reflected in credit card and debit data. they are spending more and delinquency for the most part has been held off. the overarching theme that we learned is that the gap between the largest banks and the smaller ones, and likely here in europe and what we will see in the earnings to come is that the big banks are just getting bigger. j.p.morgan added nearly $700 billion in assets. that amount alone would make it the seventh biggest bank in the u.s. it is really just a wide gulf opening up between these wall street behemoths and all the other lenders. francine: what have we heard in the guidance going forward? dani: the economic outlook from the banks is dependent on what comes out in terms of stimulus, and of course it is a very crucial time with joe biden just

being sworn in as the next president. they describe an environment where the bridge for consumers so far has been good enough, but that bridge needs to be lengthened. there needs to be more runway for consumers to continue to be healthy and not feel the pain of the economic crisis that has been caused by this pandemic. that is part of the reason we have seen a lot of these stocks not perform as well as some had hoped. that along with the idea that the trading bonanza, as i said come is unlikely to continue this year. francine: thank you so much, dani burger with the latest on wall street banks and earnings. don't miss the coverage of the european central bank meeting today. the policy decision comes at 12:40 p.m. u.k. time, and christine lagarde's press covered starts 45 minutes after that, that starts 40 minutes after that. joe biden -- we have a fantastic article on the bloomberg terminal saying that after joe biden in seeking to wipe away

donald trump's fingerprints from u.s. policy, his predecessor's lasting partisan division means it will be tougher joe biden to get some of his policies, including of course the $1.9 trillion plan through congress. tom keene joins me out of new york shortly. first of all, biden's policies, ecb, the other thing i am watching out for his pound. always higher on the inflation forecast. this is bloomberg. ♪

pres. biden: i, joseph robinette biden jr., do solemnly swear -- justice roberts: that i will faithfully execute -- pres. biden: that i will faithfully execute -- justice roberts: the office of president of the united states -- pres. biden: the office of president of the united states -- justice roberts: and will, to the best of my ability -- pres. biden: and will, to the best of my ability -- justice roberts: preserve, protect, and defend -- pres. biden: preserve, protect, and defend -- justice roberts: the constitution of the united states -- pres. biden: the constitution of the united states -- justice roberts: so help you god? pres. biden: so help me god. justice roberts: congratulations, mr. president. [cheers and applause] francine: the united states inaugurates its 46th president. joe biden pledges to unify and put an end to uncivil war. covid ravages europe. britain and germany suffer their deadliest days, with u.k. hospitals like a war zone. and as lockdowns grow longer and harsher, how does the economy cope? that's the question before christine lagarde and the ecb today. good morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london,