tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg January 22, 2021 4:00am-5:00am EST
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francine: the dark winter of the pandemic. joe biden says he will move heaven and earth to vaccinate 100 million americans in 100 days but warns 100,000 may die in the next month due to covid. germany may close its borders as eu leaders say stricter lockdowns may be necessary. bitcoin raises fresh questions about sustainability of the crypto boom. good morning, everyone.
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welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i am francine lacqua here in london. it has been quite a momentous and historic week. we look at some of the biden policies and what they mean for not only the world but for health care and climate change. a quick look at of markets, because we did have a bit of movement on the back of what christine lagarde of the ecb said yesterday. we watched with interest that press conference. nothing huge, but when you look at the trajectory for growth in europe amazing to be pretty much in line with the markets' expectations. today, stumbling, dipping as u.s. futures are, because more restrictions could come in place as an escalating and coronavirus cases, and it is daunting over earnings and plans for additional stimulus. the dollar getting higher. now let's get to the bloomberg first word news. hi, leigh-ann. leigh-ann: hi, francine.
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european leaders used a video call to demand drug companies wrap up production and deliver more. and they are warning against non-essential travel, even within countries. the u.k. says it is too early to think about using the nation's third lockdown, saying to be prepared for a test few weeks ahead, dropping the pledge to return to normal by april. it is not ruling out the lockdown lasting into the summer. and the biden administration is planning a bipartisan meeting to discuss its covid-19 relief plan. the $1.9 trillion price tag is drawing whitening opposition from republican lawmakers. bloomberg's says president biden's chief economic advisor will meet with the group in the next week also. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg @quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans.
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this is bloomberg. francine? francine: leigh-ann, thank you so much. now the world economic forum is looking a little different this year, moving to singapore later in the year. next week will be the time when they will have a crucial year to build trust. this year could be a historic one. the pandemic offers the chance to rebuild better growth. klaus schwab, thank you so much for joining us today ahead of this virtual davos agenda. it is very clear that the devastation from the agenda could be felt far and wide, in terms of likelihood, in terms of people losing their jobs. how do we rebuild better, and is there progress for governments to rebuild better, or are they still fighting fire? dr. schwab: yes, of course, we are still in a situation where
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we have to fight for survival, but we also have to look at the future. it is now a crucial moment to rebuild the future, to reset our policies, and we are -- certainly we have to take lessons from the pandemic, which we had to fight and still have to fight, and we have to build a world which is more resilient, more inclusive, and also more sustainable. and in order to have a big kick off use this opportunity, we organized next week the davos week, a kind of mobilization of all the spirits, all the good ideas, and so on, to show visions for the future. francine: who will show the way, mr. schwab? we heard about building the imf from the start of the pandemic, but does the biden administration show the rest of the world how it is done?
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dr. schwab: we will have, of course, key leaders next week assembled. we delivered early for the new u.s. administration. john kerry will certainly present his ideas about climate change, but we need also a mindset change, and i think all are living in a very critical phase for how we are doing business. we are living in a policy age of what i would call stakeholder capitalism. i think we have seen in the pandemic the companies who are committed to stakeholder responsibility, and they have invested into the long-term the vitality of the company. we will next week also show how to walk the walk, and we will announce 50 of the top global
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companies have committed, under the leadership of our international business council, not only to talk about, let's say, stakeholder responsibility, but to report on in very concrete metrics about how they are performing. francine: do you believe, klaus schwab, that governments and world leaders are ready for the challenge, that they will, you know, triad really address inequality, not just talk about it -- try and really address inequality, not just talk about it? dr. schwab: i think so could we have seen statements from many capitals around the world. we have seen, let's say, the positive signs of the u.s. government, by region owning the w -- rejoining the w.h.o., rejoining the paris agreement.
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i think there could be a new renaissance in international relationships. of course, we still remain competitors, and we have differences of opinion, particularly among the big blocs around the world, the big powers, but i think the time has come to enter get into our a dialogue and remind ourselves that we are a powerful community, and also that the virus has shown us that your globally -- that we are globally interconnected, and a very good sign that the american new administration is joining probably the covax arrangement, which is an international operation, to make sure that the vaccines are fairly distributed around the world. francine: carl schwab, do we need to dramatically rethink
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capitalism? dr. schwab: we need to make sure that we reintegrate into the notion of capital, when we feel now, when we talk about capital, it is mainly financial, but we have social capital, human capital, and we have virtual capital, and if you want to regain trust from capitalism, we have to embrace all of the functions. it is not an either/or. i think the company will succeed really well if it really takes into account all those dimensions, if people feel it serves society, and it is also in the best interest of shareholders, if the company works on its own sustainability long-term. its own sustainability is mainly -- francine: it was only a year ago we were and davos, starting to
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hear about the new virus, this novel virus in will hand. -- wuhan. no one at the time was predicted we would be here 12 months later. why are economists, chief executives, world leaders so bad at predicting these crises? dr. schwab: we have shown in our global risk reports many years that the virus is a danger, is a high risk. actually citi and --, two major global companies, have been created in davos. we have to make sure that enough attention is given to those risks. in this respect, we also published our newest risk report , and it is very clear that the world has to undertake
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tremendous efforts to be more resilient, because we may face other viruses. we have to become much more risk conscious, and probably we have to invest into our resilience as a global community, as a global economy. francine: klaus schwab, this is the new book that just came out, literally, or i think it's coming out in one or two days. we have the book cover, and you focus on the planet, "rebuilding better: an economy that works for everyone, including people and the planet." does this really translate into action? are you satisfied with the number of commitments that chief executives and will leaders are pledging? dr. schwab: yes. i see a tremendous effort in terms of rallying now behind meds zero, not only governments but business.
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we have a number of initiatives, for example, we work sector by sector how to carbonized those industries and there is an awareness now, generally -- it is generally accepted that climate change could be the next big, let's say, virus, where it is much more damaging and long-term consequences compared to covid-19. francine: are you confident, klaus schwab, that you are able to do the singapore summit in person, given the rise in cases? dr. schwab: we hope. you always have to hope for the best and prepare for the worst. we hope with the vaccine, also again the program in the u.s., vaccinating 100 million people in 100 days.
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we see a fast, let's say, an acceleration of the vaccination in countries. i am hopeful. but i am also concerned, because as long as we do not distribute those vaccines on a fair level around the world, we may have new forms of the virus coming back, hunting us even in those countries where people or a majority of people are already vaccinated. so we have to be, i would say we have two scenarios -- a very optimistic one, that by summer, we are finally in a situation where we can at least declare partial victory about the virus. but we may be hunted by the virus for quite some time, and this means, again, how important it is to tackle this issue on a global basis. francine: thank you so much
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today for joining us, klaus schwab, founder and executive chairman of the world economic forum, out with his book on january 25. and of course a very busy week ahead. now of course we focus on joe biden's policies and the biden agenda we talk about the president's stimulus plan. that is coming up shortly, and this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪ so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business.
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die from covid in the next month. the federal response to the outbreak including the stabilizing the supply chain and inks -- and increasing vaccine distribution. but he warned it will not be easy. pres. biden: we are in the dark winter of this pandemic. it is going to get worse before it gets better. it is going to take many months to get where we need to be. francine: joining us to talk more about is christian mueller-glissmann, managing director of portfolio strategy and asset allocation at goldman sachs. thank you for being with us. where the public stands on covid, what does it mean for what kind of recovery comes in the next three months, and what kind of recovery comes thereafter? christian: i think you are absolutely right that the growth picture is worsening. it is not really unexpected. we think it will be a pretty
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weak quarter globally in europe and the u.s. we have those lockdowns, but there is the sense that the second quarter will be incredibly strong as a result of that market, and the big problem is, as we are going now through this period with a kind of tail risk of this lockdown and the virus situation extending into the second quarter has picked up, and that is what the market is struggling with right now, because going through the covid infections, the hospitalizations, and the death rates, it feels like we are more vulnerable right now. francine: christian, what is the economy worried about? are they worried about the fictitious, kind of suspending the economy for longer? christian: it is a really good question. the big problem you're facing is not only the scenario the market
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is worried about but also what is frightening, and what we found is over the course of the last 1.5 months, the market has gotten incredibly bullish with regards to the reflation scenario, so you really see this across asset, we have this across asset risk appetite, which gives you 27 premiums. that actually moved to all-time highs last week. and the problem is, the higher and the more bullish the sentiment is, the more kind of easy it is to disappoint. and as a result of that, it does not necessarily require a devastating kind of covid outcome, where you see scarring and where you see possibly the vaccine failing. these types of scenarios, i think, are quite unlikely. i think what the market needs to grapple with is, are you potentially pushing back the recovery for longer? and do you need to continue to hold that risk and exposure, because it might get a little
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more bumpy? francine: and your answer to that? i guess on the positive for the markets is that maybe inflation is even further away from support -- further away, so support from central banks is here to stay. christian: yes, for us, not only the growth picture, as the margin worsens, you also see the growth inflation mix and the growth rates mix worsening. so you had the ecb meeting yesterday, where come at the margin, it came out that the ecb may not be leaning against the recent steepening of the yield curve. you are seeing obviously in the u.s. a decent selloff in the bond market, and part for real yields, which is so important for markets to stay low. as a result of that, yes, it is more difficult for sentiments to stay at these incredibly high levels. but i think come at the margins, you are right.
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we would look at the corrections if it comes as the opportunities for risk or the endgame, which, to us, is a favorable one, which we will see hospitalizations, death rates come down significantly, which will allow governments to reopen and will at least be the window of a few quarters with the growth inflation mix will be quite stable. francine: christian, what is your take on u.s. assets given the $1.9 trillion plan from the biden administration and just, in general, the way that, so far, joe biden has tried to, you know, get out in front of the pandemic? christian: i think for the economy, the tail risk has come down, to some extent, because you know how they fiscal put, and that is a good thing. but the problem is the equity market and generally asset markets are not the economy, and
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generally the u.s. equity market is dominated by tech stocks, which have done phenomenally well, essentially because they are not linked to an economy last year, and the problem is now not only do all the assets maybe not benefit as much from the fiscal, and aggregate at least, they are beneficial like the rest of those calls, which have done relatively well since then. i think aggregate asset margins have a bigger issue, which is duration. all assets in particular have become longer duration -- investment-grade credit, when you look at equities at the s&p and of course the nasdaq -- and all of those assets are actually more sensitive to higher rates. so as you see the u.s. government, via fiscal spending, help the u.s. economy, that is not always helping the u.s. equity market, and we see that here today. the s&p is more than flat. the russell is up 10%. so you see a real drag here from
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those higher yields. francine: christian, thank you so much. christian mueller-glissmann from goldman sachs stays with us we will talk more about what he was just explaining very clearly. we will also talk about euro levels and what we are from christine lagarde. coming up, the race to vaccinate the world. this is bloomberg. ♪ e world. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am francine lacqua here in london. now, there is quite a lot going on in the markets, concerns about a double-dip recession. there are more restrictions to curb coronavirus, which is getting into the optimism. coming up, the ecb holding its first policy meeting of 2021. we will discuss that with christian. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪
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windfall, but the reward for traders may be more modest. on average the largest u.s. ranks boosted average pay by $271 per employee. joining us with the latest is dani burger. good morning. why hasn't the pay but much at these banks? dani: as one consultant told us, it is all about off picks. off picks in the sense that even though these trading debts and capital markets did well for wall street banks, you have other areas that struggled, like lending, which leaves the overall revenue at banks flat year-over-year. and you have the political optics. in a year with so much of a gap between main street and wall street when you have really all of these inequalities throughout america, you have banks that are worried about political scrutiny with the new guard, so perhaps this is some self-regulation. that's how you get this picture.
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with j.p.morgan revenue per employee rising 22% but pay rising 1%. at goldman sachs it is 15% revenue per employee, then 1% rise on pay. this is the biggest gap since 2009. francine: what about some of the top executives? dana: -- in light dani: we do expect some of the revenue to be flat. we are in the business of retaining talent, and to retain that talent, you have to pay them more. it doesn't mean everybody is just going to have a flat $271 pay increase. there surely will be more people who get a higher increase. bank of america also has a program for people getting pay less to reward them for coming in during the pandemic. so the flat figure, it is the overall figure. within that we should expect some discrepancies between some people able to get an increase in more bonuses.
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francine: thank you. let's get to first word news with leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: the e.u. is warning that the city, any deal on financial services remains a distant prospect. europe's up a commission for the industry says the block does not have a fixed timeline for reaching a decision on equivalents. >> there is no re-creating the single market for financial services for the united kingdom when they have decided to leave the single market. so what i'm saying here very clearly is change is coming. leigh-ann: the top u.s. infectious disease expert, anthony fauci, says he feels liberated by working for president biden after president trump tried to sideline him. speaking at a white house briefing, the new administration's chief medical advisor says it felt uncomfortable to have to contradict the previous president over medical advice, saying he took no pleasure in
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it. and mitch mcconnell is proposing to start donald trump's impeachment trial next month. he wants to give the former president enough time to mount a defense, saying any half-baked process could damage the senate or presidency. the trial is in limbo after speaker nancy pelosi sent to article is of impeachment to the senate. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: we are just getting some pmi from the u.k., and the numbers are pretty terrible. we will have a look at whether it has a name packed on pound. this is for january and services pmi coming in 38.8, significantly below 50, but also significantly below what we were expecting, which was a 45 handle. it currently came out 36.66.
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i was going to ask christian mueller about the central bank and the european commission. what do you do with u.k. assets right now? it is a little bit in limbo and that they have control, they could because of brexit sign accords, that could take longer. but we have these figures that because of lockdown and coronavirus are looking quite bad. christian: this is not just going to be an issue for the u.k., we have lockdowns everywhere in europe and we have a negative track globally. so we will see several of those releases and we will get the european data later. but you are right, i think the u.k. has a very strong kind of capital story post-brexit because international investors breathe a sigh of relief in the sense that the uncertainty on these trade negotiations, so the
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u.k. assets become more accessible. but the ftse 100 is not really the u.k. economy, far from it. i think it also has revenue on the side of the u.k., a large amount of the revenue in dollar. what we like about the u.k. is the sector and styling -- it has value, and a lot of commodities, and a very high dividend yield. i would argue, coming back to what we discussed earlier, the covid news flow should not completely surprise people. it might surprise people in terms of magnitude, how bad and how potentially prolonged and distant the data is. but for an inch that for an index like the ftse, it is a -- for an index like the ftse, there is a big laggard over the last year and it is quite cheap. francine: if you look at the
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ftse, there is a lot of exposure to companies, as soon as we touch oil, really into more climate change, it could take a hit. how do you handle that? christian: i think that is a big balance issue you currently have where everything that is good, that is secular growth, that has a good long-term story, is incredibly expensive and has gotten so last year in function of these declines and bond yields, each push people toward anything that has long duration and sustainable cash flows. the problem is now the bigger opportunity is to go down the quality curve and go to places which may be -- you don't want to own and five years but you have a window where the places are cheap and they have potential tailwind from the global economy, and in the case of the ftse for oil prices, where we remain quite bullish for the rest of the year because we just feel that as growth recovers, eventually you do see a significant pickup in demand
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for oil. that means that while the ftse 100 might not be the five to 10 year outperform or that is debatable because of some of the sectors and companies, but i think certainly the window for performance of this year is a better one than last year. francine: talk to me about what you actually heard from christine lagarde yesterday. is there anything that makes you a lot less optimistic about the future for the european recovery? christian: i think at the margin, there is a message for may be cautiously, a bit more cautiously optimistic. the important thing the market currently cares about is really the potentially -- to potential for withdrawal. this is the same thing for the fed. every speech, every meeting is scrutinized for indications for the first hike, for tapering,
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and i think yesterday you had a situation where at the margins the ecb top to much more symmetric than may be would have liked come in the sense that i think there was an emphasis on stable financing commission -- financing conditions. it probably opened the door for concerns that if you do see the recovery from covid and a pickup of inflation expectations, then maybe the envelope will be reduced and not execute as the market thanks. at the margin there maybe was a small surprise, but i don't think to your point that there is too much to read into it. francine: what do you look at in terms of the biggest play for 2021? is there an asset class that is a good time to go back income or do you go to the players that you like in 2020 -- to go back in, or do you go to the players
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that you like it when he 20? kristin: last year was all about long duration, stable growth, real assets, s&p, gold. it has been generally linked to quality equity, and i think this year as we are dealing with, under covid-19 recovery, we are moving down the quality curve toward more cyclical assets and toward laggards. i mention ftse, which is very value, has a lot of commodity exposure. we generally like commodities, we like cyclical parts of the different asset classes. for example, latin equity has a big -- is a big laggard. so you see a shift down in quality. despite the fact that the absolute valuation are very high, the market still screams the best in terms of the overall assets. francine: what do you do with china?
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is the world becoming more bipolar? kristin: china is interim -- christian: china is interesting. china tech and asia tech in general has been a good performing asset class last year. you have similar headwinds than in the u.s. where you have high rates potentially are certainly high valuations. china's economy on top of that, you have to consider significantly decoupled from the rest of the world, especially post the first quarter, which has meant that the data is incredibly strong, which means policy tightening is probably the topic already. whereas most economies, the central banks are reluctant. that could mean that china, from a china tech equity point of view and a cyclical equity point of view, a.b. has a few more
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headwinds. at the margin i would argue that -- maybe has a few more headwinds. we still like china, but there is a kind of risk reward that is probably less good than something like latin equity. francine: thank you so much for all of your wisdom. christian mueller from goldman sachs. coming up, the vaccination drive is coming up against rising sections of debt as leaders race against the crop. that is coming up next, and this is bloomberg. ♪
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pleasure at all in contradicting the president, so you didn't feel that you could actually say something and there wouldn't be any repercussions. the idea that you can get up here and talk about what you know, what evidence, what the science is, and let the science speak, it is somewhat of a liberating feeling. francine: anthony fauci, the foremost expert on infectious disease, looking forward to working with joe biden after donald trump tried to sideline him. a variety of vaccines are being rolled out at different pieces across the world as countries battle new variants and a rising death toll. more than 56 million shots have been administered so far. johnson & johnson inspected to apply for market authorization for its vaccine in february or earlier. the road to global recovery is pretty bumpy. joining us is a senior pharmaceuticals analyst and director of research in europe. thank you so much for coming on.
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what is the one thing you worry about right now? there is a race to get as many vaccines as possible right at a time where certainly here in the u.k. the number of deaths, the number of hospitalizations also increase. are we moving too slowly, or are we going as fast as we can? >> hi, francine. it seems to me that at least some countries are going as fast as they can. that would certainly include israel and the u.k., and some states in the united states. others are a little slower. maybe they think it is more measured, but i would call it slower. and of course you have supply hiccups here and there. which are inevitable given that you are rolling out a vaccine that is based on a new technology that didn't really have this kind of level of manufacturing just a year ago. that is the key thing here. francine: is the u.k. doing -- the negative, biggest experience
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given the first dose of the pfizer vaccine, waiting 10 to 12 weeks for the second dose -- does it make sense? because you get vaccinated -- you vaccinate much more people straightaway, but then you could not be as immune as if you did it the way that pfizer says you should administer them. >> let's use the word vaccine for when people have had two doses. a sickly they are getting the most shots into people -- basically they are getting the most shots into people at the moment, and i'm sure -- i'm getting from the experts that the decision was based in science. unfortunately, there is no data that specifically backs the decision to delay the dose of the pfizer vaccine. so this will either end up being a stroke of genius and application of tons of expertise in science that these folks at the jc b.i. and the u.k. have,
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we will end up being a wasted 5 million shots and we have no back to -- and we have to go back and re-vaccinate everybody. and a lot of people agree that is unlikely to create another resistant variance to the vaccine. that's what most people don't think is going to happen, and i hope they are right. francine: when do we find out whether this works or not? sam: i think we have started following that, francine. you can find it on our research on the blue bird terminal, and look at different ways of looking at this. -- on the bloomberg terminal, and look at different ways of looking at this. israel has close to 35% vaccinations, and that will level off because i think you will get the easier people in first, and then you have to spread that out. but that is a great start already. i am seeing hints that it is changing, but we need a much bigger change for us to get excited. that might come in the next
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three to four weeks, i would say. francine: i know that france is really one of the countries that is just not vaccinating a number of people that is even close to what we are seeing in the u.k. is it an infrastructure problem? in the u.k. you can get vaccinated by not only the doctor, why is there such discrepancy about how various countries and leaders are dealing with it? sam: i think a lot of it has to do with bureaucracy, and i am, as you know, living in france at the moment. hear this phrase that we would much rather have a french vaccine then another one. and i suspect that probably happens in the u.k., too, but people have the astrazeneca vaccine that they call the british vaccine. i don't know how much that has to do with it, but i would say the majority of the problem is bureaucracy, and i think people are also kind of happy with seeing it go slowly because they think there is probably a
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better, more measured approach. behind the curve, as germany now is almost double the vaccinations per capita than france is. at some point you are going to have to deal with the issue of can we cross the border easily while we are still waiting for vaccination levels to pick up. francine: sam, thank you so much. sam fazeli. coming up, bitcoin rattled the digital -- after a slump that rocked the crypto boom. have that story next, and this is bloomberg. ♪
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biggest banks is rising much lower than revenue. goldman sachs generated an extra 15% per employee but only spent 2% more. the gap was even wider at j.p. morgan. revenue up 22% per person, pay up only 1%. the kept boss jamie dimon's compensation study at $31.5 million. citigroup is making gradual progress on the gender pay gap -- on narrowing the gender pay gap. women make 26% less than men, a 1% improvement from a year ago. the bank is one of the few companies to give detailed statistics on pay gaps. google is threatening to disable a search engine in australia. it is a month-long standoff with the government. google says proposed new rule is
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unworkable. prime minister scott morrison is hitting back, saying australian makes -- australia makes its own laws. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine: bitcoin has steadied after slumping below $30,000. the retreat is bring up fresh questions about cryptocurrency. bitcoin is on course for one of its worst weeks since the pandemic while financial markets march. joining us is our reporter from hong kong. good afternoon where you are. what may be some of the reasons behind bitcoin's slide or rise? what is it tracking? >> it has been a question for constant debate pretty much ever since we started seeing bitcoin's meteoric rise through the second half of last year, everything from the rise of institutional investment, interest as a dollar hedge, to really another round of speculative mania. the bubble from 2017.
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this week we have seen some of the worst selling for bitcoin going back to last march. i would note that we saw bitcoin quadruple in value last year, and certainly some people are likely taking profits after that massive run. it has lost some of that momentum through the first part of january here. also cited was recent testimony from janet yellen in her senate confirmation hearing where she raised cryptocurrencies as an area of concern for terrorist and criminal financing. that has been hounding bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, the ongoing concerns of criminality which the industry has tried to shake. so plenty of reasons for why it might be moving lower, but as we see, the price is steady, almost 32,000 at the moment. francine: thank you so much. we will have plenty more on bitcoin throughout the day.
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eric lam there. in the next hour, tom keene joins me out of new york. i know tom was interested to talk about negative rates. we had the lowdown from goldman sachs saying that the effect it was very difficult but at the time it was needed to not face a depression. stocks dipping, worrying about researching cases of coronavirus, and that is dampening some of the optimism on plans for additional stimulus. yields on treasuries and german booms, and declining crude oil for a second day. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: the dark winter of the pandemic. joe biden says he will move heaven and earth to vaccinate 100 million americans in the next 100 days but warns that 100,000 may die in the next month from covid. a last resort. angela merkel warns that germany could close its borders as e.u. leaders say stricter lockdowns could be necessary. and bitcoin steadies after a slump that raises fresh questions about the sustainability of the crypto boom. good morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london, tom keene in new york. tom, there are a number of signing of new executive orders, but also a big story for bloomberg surveillance. you are vaccinated yesterday, and i cannot wait to know a little bit more about that. maybe we should start with the biden team. tom: the biden team is here day after day, starting at 5:00 a.m. there are different signals
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