>> we are in a wartime situation. you do whatever it takes. >> what the vaccine has been rolled out in a meaningful way, we will start to see some positive growth. >> people are doing what they need to do to revive the economy. >> arc it's a been conditioned to receive support from federal banks. >> the money is not circulated in the economy because people do not want to spend. >> this is bloomberg surveillance. jonathan: good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance live on bloomberg tv and radio. i am jonathan ferro with equity futures positive nine points on the s&p 500. it feels so good to be back.

can i do the introduction again it? tom: do the good morning good morning. jonathan: it good morning good morning. with equity futures on the s&p 500, we are up 0.2%. tom, i've missed you. i really have. is he crying? is he emotional? lisa: you are rendered speechless. tom: good morning on radio and tv as well. it's an incredibly busy week. we are in shock that we are not in davos. i was at the piano bar and it's not the same. we've got the real yield coming back. the markets are lifting and all the rest of it. we will get to football in a moment. topping all of that is the return of jonathan ferro. jonathan: i think joe biden is

worried about something else. the president, a reality check in washington dc and almost immediately on his stimulus plan. good luck with that. tom: i know there are some important notes in the conversation thanks to face the nation. it's as expected, the 50-50 thing in the senate. the house will move impeachment papers over to that trial in the senate. jonathan: what unity in washington? tom: there's not even unity here. lisa: we're doing pretty well so far. jonathan: the division will return to this program almost immediately. we need to talk about europe versus the u.k.. that picture is getting uglier and not better. lisa: a report out of element capital, this is one of the biggest hedge funds.

people are underestimating how much europe is averaging from the u.s. that has to do with the vaccination schedule. dr. antony found she is speaking at the world economic forum. it is not in davos. we are still monitoring all the speeches that will be remote. it is key to see how close we are to getting herd immunity, there is a lot of uncertainty. europe is doing a worse job. the yuan is worse -- releasing a report. -- u.n. is releasing a report. the wealthiest individuals recouped all their covid losses in nine months. they expected to take 10 years for the world's poorest residents to recoup what they have lost. that division is highlighted by others for a big concern for everybody going for. -- forward.

president biden will sign an executive order about the stimulus plan. how much they will be able to push through and how much they will be on, plugging the productivity gap in getting some actual stimulus. are we there yet? jonathan: the breakdown of what has been happening in europe, europe intelligence was scathing about the mistakes the europeans have made. the eu prioritized the price. they paid 24% less for the pfizer vaccine. the price gap is 45%. you've got a good price over in europe. what you needed was the vaccine. right now, they haven't got enough of it. tom: each nation is different. what i find fascinating is there have been some successful models. west virginia got a splash of

the new york times. why can't every other state be west virginia? jonathan: hopefully we can build on that. the united states in absolute terms, we need to do better. compared to year bright now, the u.s. and u.k. are looking better than good. the future tech earnings, futures this morning are positive on the s&p. it's up 0.2%. the bond market, full speed ahead. the yield is coming and it 0.754%. 12154, when this growth differential starts to reassert itself in a more dominant way, this currency pair. tom: you have to wonder from 122 down to 121 and the belief it will give way. it's the third week of january. you were on sabbatical for six

weeks. time is moving slowly. it feels long, the way that we missed you and the stretching out here the end of the year with president trump and all of that. it's emotional. president of china. very quickly, president she -- president xi is speaking. jonathan: there is a huge pr effort from the chinese commonest party. they are using the world economic forum to achieve their goals. we have to remember how it began. we have to remember how little transparency we got at the start of this pandemic. there is not enough transparency as to what happened in china both months ago. tom: let's get to our esteemed

guest with the earnings coming out this week. jonathan: david, let's start with the earnings. do they matter? david: the earnings will matter. what will matter more is what companies tell us about what they are expecting for 2021. if we think about 2020, covid took hold around the world. what you are looking for is a little bit of clarity for management in terms of their expectations for the coming year, particularly the more economically sensitive sectors. tech will remain robust, particularly rolling out the vaccine. i think the questions i have are more about the industrial names in the material names in the financial names. tom: you work in the institutional area. what is the significance of the

surge and the gains stop moonshot? david: it's interesting, a lot of people were caught by surprise. i think you are seeing two things go on. there is clearly a ton of liquidity that continues to slosh around in the market. when the rates are zero, that liquidity needs a home. we've talked about the challenges to returns in public markets going forward. that's an interesting way for them to access what would be private opportunities. that's a big part of the reason why there is so much enthusiasm and interest in that. in terms of some of the other market dynamics, it's very clear there is a large retail presence in the market. it appears that is increasing substantially over the last couple of years. whether you were looking at

brokerage trading accounts or the robinhood data or the fed data, retail investors are growing. that is causing some of this walking price action on a day-to-day basis. lisa: this is the most polite you could imagine somebody saying what you were saying, retail investors are going nuts. you can ignore them and keep doing your thing. is that which you were saying? it doesn't make any

behave -- bubble behavior. where do you stand on this? david: i think there are pockets of frost. when everybody is calling for bubbles, that means there is enough awareness that they are not as significant as what people may believe. the price of some cryptocurrencies, parts of the equity market, there is some froth. it gives me the most pause over the next couple of months is the narrative keeps getting pushed out. there have been challenges, the economy is going to come back online later this year. equity prices are higher. credit spreads are tighter. the setup feels precipitous at the current juncture. i would not be surprised to see volatility in the next couple of weeks. generally, the fundamental story remains intact. the economy comes back online in 2022 and the rebound is supporting corporate profits which determine the equity market over time. jonathan: that is the prime example of sitting on the fence. right there. that was beautiful. we might see a little bit of a pullback.

it's got to be more intense than that, more concentrated in some parts of the market. we are talking about crazy stories with some of these names with huge short coverings. big parts of this market? david: when you think about the institutional money, it's relatively sticky. when i think about what drives volatility, it's the investors that are trading based on what they see in the headlines. i'm not saying there is no risk in the market. i think where valuations are and the uninterrupted run we have, there is some consolidation. that would be perfectly appropriate and healthy for the trend in the market. counterbalancing everything i just said is what's happening in the monetary policy arena. as long as central bankers around the world remain

accommodated and policymakers continue to leave things open, it's really tough to fight the liquidity trade when something's aren't making sense. jonathan: it's great to catch up. thank you. much more still to come with tom keene and lisa abramowicz. i've got to say, it's a beautiful morning in new york city. it is cold. it's good to look at. tom: it's gorgeous. we are altogether. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ karina: lawmakers say he needs to justify the $1.9 trillion price drag of his -- price tag.

moderate republican senator susan collins says she will press the bipartisan group to come up with a plan. another milestone for the u.s. in the fight against the pandemic, total infections of exceeded 25 million. it's the world's highest total, 8% of the population. the death toll has topped 417,000. in mexico, the president has tested positive. the leader that mexicans refer to is 67 and his symptoms are mild. he has a lax approach to the virus. he usually doesn't wear a mask. the largest recipient of foreign direct investment, the u.n. trade agency says flows plunged 22%. the u.s. and europe lost ground while china gained. global news 24 hours a day powered by 2700 journalists and

analysts in more than 120 countries. much more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design

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the virus is surging.

we are 400,000 dead, expected to reach over 600,000. families are going hungry. people are at risk of being evicted and job losses are mounting. we need to act. we need to act. if we act now, our economy will be stronger. jonathan: the president of the united states for our audience. i am jonathan ferro. it is 7:18 eastern time. equity futures have a little bit of a lift, up 11 on the s&p. foreign-exchange, euro-dollar is 121. that's coming in 0.1%. the bond market, a fed decision with special coverage later this week. yields are the single basis point.

quickly, the word on financial conditions. later in the program, leasable will talk about this. amc raising another $900 million. they haven't really had any business for the best part of 12 months. looks like they get through this. they have raised enough capital. tom: we could save this for another time. the distortions in the markets, all centering on the new incentives and disincentives set up by the fed. it's remarkable. the fed is snowballing during 2020. there's no other way to put it. the nasdaq has a nice lift. emily is not focused on distortions in the market. she is focused on the legislative branch. the senate is a mess. within the mess is the pageantry of impeachment.

they will walk across the rotunda to the senate and they will hand over the impeachment. what happens next? emily: nothing much. they will delay the actual start of the impeachment trial until february 9. on february 8, everyone will give their opening comments. this will give time for trump to get his legal team together. tom: the washington post leads with a constitutionality debate of the impeachment. could this be delayed substantially because somebody has a right to say is this constitutional? emily: it doesn't sound like it's going to be delayed. things will get rolling. republicans wanted that so trump could be prepared. they wanted to cool down tensions. democrats know they've got other work to do. they need to start passing cabinet positions. joe biden wants that is well.

everyone is agreed on the two week delay. i think we will see that continue to play out as the trial begins. jonathan: how original is it to have jury who are also witnesses? emily: that's how it works. just the nature of how it goes, it is rare to have something you have these senators who were in the building, whose lives were at risk and threatened by this mob to come out and say whether or not trump incited that mob or not. lisa: you talked about the other business at hand, democrats were trying to get an agreement on stimulus ahead of that beginning. how realistic is that? emily: the white house had a meeting with 16 bipartisan senators to figure out what might be the path forward on the proposed 1.9 trillion dollar

stimulus package. what they heard back is we just passed $900 billion. you need to provide us with the date of why it's $1.9 trillion. why do we need this amount of money. negotiations started. this is something we will hear more about in recent weeks. it took congress a while to get an agreement on the $900 billion package in december. there is momentum that the biden administration will continue to push lawmakers on this. tom: the presidents urgency, what is joe biden's biggest urgency right now? emily: covid-19. it was his focus on the campaign trail. a number of that, it's not just congress, it's the executive orders, the initiatives he is working on to make sure we are

maintaining the one million vaccines per day. getting testing sites up and working with corporations. a lot is happening behind the scenes as they take estate by straight approach and federalize unit. jonathan: allow me to turn to china for moment. the leader of the chinese calmness already is speaking right now, urging the avoidance of meddling in other countries affairs and in the same sentence saying we should enhance political trust by strategic communication. what is the approach from this administration as they look toward this country, accused of genocide. the leader of that country is going to the world economic forum and speaking to the elites worldwide and telling them not to interrupt but build political trust.

emily: they realize that they have a much more aggressive stance toward the nation, toward their treatment of intellectual property theft. we will expect the baidu administration to continue what we saw with the trump administration, having a strong hand. joe biden hopes to engage more of their foreign allies to make sure they are standing up the china. jonathan: emily, great to catch up. tom: he is a man you -- manchester united fan. jonathan: a fantastic midfielder. his chelsea career was brilliant. he was fantastic to watch. he has been sacked as the

manager. they are spending another couple hundred million pounds. they're not getting the benefits that the owner of this football club wants to see. he's got a history of not having much patience with his managers. tom: i saw a couple of days ago. they are flat on their back. when you give somebody like that , you know it's over. lisa: you can talk about this all you want. we are on the brink of the super bowl. we do have to talk about american football. jonathan: why does everyone hate gisele's husband? lisa: they are jealous of him. he has the perfect life. he is going to his tent super bowl. he is bringing tampa bay to be the first team in nfl history to play their super bowl in their home field. he is charmed. he is good looking, he is

married to a supermodel. i will leave it there. tom: i've got to get this out. i am working on it. can you get on that? (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that and more in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design to help you to maintain comfortable, correct form. that means better results in less time. you can do an uncomfortable, old-fashioned crunch or an aerotrainer super crunch. turn regular planks into turbo planks without getting down on the floor. and there are over 20 exercises to choose from. incredible for improving flexibility and perfect for enhancing yoga and pilates.

and safe for all fitness levels. get gym results at home in just 10 minutes a day. no expensive machines, no expensive memberships. get off the floor with aerotrainer. go to aerotrainer.com to get yours now. jonathan: this is bloomberg

surveillance on bloomberg tv and radio. some breaking news, tom brady is good looking. did you like that? some breaking news. lisa is going to weigh in on sports. lisa: no. you put me on the spot. you can't do that. i'm not talking about how they are going to the super bowl. you were talking about soccer when we actually have a super bowl, we have the teams. carry on. do the market check. jonathan: futures are positive about 0.1% on the s&p 500. the outperformance last week came from big tech.

switch to the bond market, we approach the federal reserve decision later this week. the curve is just a little bit flatter. we come down to basis points. i think we get the message from the fed right now, rates aren't going up for a long time. it's the taper story that chairman powell has to do with this market. as for financial conditions, it's unbelievable to see a company shut for 12 months, not having done any business carry on raising money. i am talking about amc entertainment. this was the objective of the federal reserve, to divorce economic fundamentals. amc is a perfect example. raising another $900 million and taking anchor of see off the table. the euro-dollar, much more this

later in the program. the vaccine rollout is brutal. it's been terrible. that's the macro story. as the week gets older into next week, the big story is big tech and earnings season. >> we will start off with mark. they suspended those covid trials. they were already an also in this race for vaccines. this should not have an impact on their finances in the short term. there is some concern longer-term about these treatments and whether they will be a part of it. we actually saw a big selloff in europe, there are new lockdowns in hong kong and the u.k. and chatter about lockdowns over in israel and france. this could curtail a lot of movement. you were talking about the market being divorced from fundamentals.

we will have big tech earnings this week. the earnings are expected to be good. revenue growth is expected to be good. expectations have been built into these shares. keep an eye as to whether they can live up to those expectations. you mentioned amc raising almost $1 billion. the ceo said eminent bankruptcy is off the table. we will talk about the long-term. if you want to talk about fundamentals, you remember the old days when cfa ruled the earth. you could do that in a spreadsheet. it's not going to be $92 a share. tom: it's a new kind of trading. whether it's the short covering off of shorts to the been very negative in the stock. it's about 5.5 standard deviations. i don't know what regulators do

about this other than to observe it. >> i thought jonathan was doing this. i am going to have to take some tips. it's nice to see when the flash. jonathan: thank you. that's what this program is about. take a stroll. >> you been talking sports all morning. tom: do you think tom brady is good-looking? >> he is a very handsome man. tom keene is the best looking man in radio. tom: thank you so much. on the equity markets, we will try to keep away from mr. brady. we will talk to gina about the field goal green bay kicked. gina, romain just brought up an interesting point. do earnings matter?

the security analysis matter anymore with the distortions we've seen from the federal reserve? gina: i think it does. there are some significant distortions coming from the technical level. we are in this bizarro world where things are getting punished for expectations going forward. we are early in the earnings season. i think you want to give it a little time to play out. we are going into tech earnings, which are a huge portion of the index. facebook, marcasite -- microsoft peaked in september. we may experience the opposite over the next the next week with companies that lag. they could do pretty well. i think frankly what's happening is there is a huge asset.

the reality is we are going to experience economic recovery, baby steps to positive earnings growth. the markets have been trading on that concept for some time. you get these fits and starts. we are in one of those right now. that doesn't mean the overall trend is false or not improving fundamentals. we will have an improvement in fundamentals in 2021. lisa: there is an argument about whether we have baked in the entirety of that improvement and whether some of the hot consensus trades are going too far. they are starting to look at the reflation trade. you think the renewed energy behind the big tech stocks shows a reversal of that reflation

trade? gina: it's short-term. we've gotten to a point where value stocks were overbought. even emerging marketing equities is in emerging markets. we have driving performance in 2021. does that mean they are long-term overbought? they are still trading one standard deviation below. in the last cycle, the outperformed for five years. we mimicked that. i think it's a bit early to say it's all over, we will back into longer. in the short run, we got overinflated. we are in that consolidation or correction of overwrought condition.

longer-term, they continue to endure. they were extremely oversold. they are starting to bounce back. the discounts are still there. the earnings argument is still there. lisa: there are pockets of frost. that is the way of saying there are bubbles. could you see a deflation of some of these bubbles whether it's gamestop or bitcoin as the market grinds higher? they are inconsequential for the common trend. gina: you could argue that the entire financial market is in a bubble reflecting what's happening over the last couple of years. i do think what you will see is the normalization of the cycle. most of the bubble language is built on the idea that interest rates are at rock-bottom lows. this is going toward all manner of stocks and crypto, they have

re-inflated substantially. that tells you where the bubble is coming from. it comes from the fed. are they going to change the game? will we see the fed reverse policy? this seems incredibly unlikely. we are talking about another $2 trillion of infusion into the economy. if anything, it's more than likely that we continue to see the bubble broadly inflate. jonathan: do you consider policy part of the fundamentals? can you call any of this a bubble? gina: i consider it essential for driving interest rates, which is essential for driving valuations. it's all related. i think policymakers have a heavy hand in driving out.

you have a scenario that happened over 2020. the struggles of the economy, you have direct infusions. we all remember back in the march of last year when the fed was purchasing corporate credit. hearken back to something that happened in japan for the better part of a decade. that creates a different balance of supply and demand. it is the other way of looking at stock. it has been altered over the course of 2020. will we see a reversal in 2021? it is unlikely. we need to be on guard for the reality of assets globally. it includes a new player in the u.s.. i do think this is going to

create different outcomes. they are somewhat predictable frankly. it is a different buyer and a different seller that existed in these markets in the past. jonathan: great to catch up as always. on that final point, that's for the struggle has been for many people. for market purists, the parts of the value world, the value universe has been the refusal to accept the new fundamentals. what is new? it's been taking place for the last 15 years. tom: it is a great bull market the lot of people have been partly wrong on or completely wrong on. you were busting lisa's chops about a goldman sachs note today. it had a tinge of gloom to it. the gloom crew, they are spinning right now with his

continued market. jonathan: much more from their leader lisa abramowicz coming up. i am jonathan ferro. the university of washington school of medicine, up three on the s&p. we are positive, a little less than 0.1%. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: there are signals president biden faces challenges enacting his coronavirus relief package. publicans and democrats got a call with the white house economic advisor after justification of the size of the proposal. one republican senator says she will seek a bipartisan group to come up with their own plan. boris johnson and joe biden had different tones on a trade deal between the two countries. the british prime minister was a first leader to receive a phone

call since the inauguration. the to discuss the benefits of a potential deal. the u.s. statement did not mention trade. a new deal is a top priority. sarah sanders is running for governor of arkansas. sanders left the white house in 2019 to return to her home state. in a video, she said with the radical left in charge of washington, the governor is the last line of defense. see if the daughter of mike huckabee. the kremlin downplayed protests demanding the release of alexey navalny. western governments noticed thousands of demonstrators. they battled right police in freezing temperatures. they could face charges for taking part. another scandal at deutsche bank, they are investing -- investigating risk investments

to clients he did not understand them and shared the profits. the probe centers around an employee. only spain and portugal were affected. local news 24 hours a day powered by 2700 journalists. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> these things do evolve. what we will do and are doing

already is making preparations for the possibility of it down the pike we may need to modify and upgrade the vaccine. we don't need to do that right now. the best way to prevent the further evolution of these mutants is to vaccinate as many people as possible. jonathan: it's a different kind of vaccine race. dr. fauci was on face the nation. good morning. i am jonathan ferro. we are live on bloomberg tv and radio. futures are basically unchanged for a moment. then we get a bounce to about zero point 1% into positive territory. the nasdaq is up 0.9%. the nasdaq had a few -- huge week, up 4%. that's the story for the equity market this morning. tom: you mentioned bitcoin, we

are watching that as we watched gamestop as well. right now on the fire is, the definitive conversation with deborah fuller of the university of washington school of medicine , i can't san f about the esteem of their program. dr. for look, -- fuller, we were less afraid of measles. there are different variants of measles. are they to be treated like the variants of other things we have contained? are they different? deborah fuller: we have increasing evidence that some of these new are not only gaining an ability to transmit more efficiently, but developing mutations that could evade antibody responses.

that would potentially suggest that our current vaccine might impact the efficacy. our vaccines are very high efficacy, much higher than 90%. we're are not talking about complete loss of protection by the vaccine. we are talking about a decline from 95% to 85%, that is still very effective. we keep an i on that because we may get to a point where we have to update the vaccines. lisa: some people have made this a race to get people vaccinated before the virus mutates enough to set you back further and cause an increase of the virus. how are we doing? deborah fuller: it's a race between vaccination rate and viral mutation. we are currently estimating 80%

of the population immune to shut down the pandemic. herd immunity depends on how transmissible is the virus and how is the vaccine? it can mutate and increase transmission. that raises the bar. it's a cycle that pushes our goal posts further down the line. it truly is a race. lisa: perhaps this is an underappreciated aspect, not necessarily understanding how much the new strain of virus is more transmissible, possibly more real euro -- viral you wouldn't -- otherwise we will be dealing with lockdowns and other types of social distancing

measures. deborah fuller: when we start talking about herd immunity, we were talking 65%. now we are hearing 80% of that could go higher. that's a huge difference in terms of the numbers of people that will need to receive the vaccine to get to that point. the more people you have to vaccinate, the longer it will take. tom: should we assume we will see a traditional vaccine? experts are talking about the efficacy of a more traditional vaccine. do we need that? deborah fuller: do you mean like the kinds we had before the rna vaccine? the j&j one coming up, it's not traditional. it is new is well. it's using a different way to deliver genetic material so we

can produce the vaccine. in some respects, it is quite similar. the advantage of both of these is should the virus undergo an evolution where it is reducing efficacy, they are very quick to update. you just have to swap the genetic material and away you go to producing them. traditional vaccines would take nine months to update. these will be weeks, maybe a month. that's good news for us. they can chase the bar much quicker. jonathan: can we get your assessment of the goal to vaccinate one million americans per day for 100 days. we have been around those levels for about a week. is the goal itself bold enough? will there be supply issues to

address that make the rate optimistic? deborah fuller: it sounds impressive. it may not be enough. it's a good start to get to. we are talking about being mask free by labor day. we are probably going to need to start there and quickly accelerate, maybe triple that rate to get there. when the mechanisms are in place to achieve that consistently, that is a kind of thing that can leverage and increase the rate. jonathan: do you have a placeholder on the calendar for you when things start to get pared down? deborah fuller: i would love to have a mask free day by labor day. that goes from the perspective of -- i run a lab of many young

people. they are looking forward to getting their kids back to school. jonathan: we appreciate your time. lisa mentioned the vaccine rate. to give you an idea of the numbers, israel is just fantastic, 40 doses per 100 people. the u.s. is just south of seven. the you -- u.k. is up by 10. the gap is not getting narrower. tom: a lot of it is cultural. i thought it was good. i do know what their ratio is. i was thunderstruck by the intensity, the manufacturing process of just getting people in. i had to put my walker aside because there were so many older people.

it doesn't fold up in the winter like it should. there were a lot of good-looking guys. i don't have the wheels yet. jonathan: much more is here to come. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we are in a wartime situation. in a situation like this, you do whatever it takes. >> the vaccine has been rolled out in a meaningful way so we will start to see some very positive growth. >> they are doing what they need to do which is revive the economy. >> markets have been conditioned to expect predictable support from central banks. >> the public still has money in reserve, but the money is not circulating in the economy because people do not want to spend. announcer: this is b