>> we are in a wartime situation. in a situation like this, you do whatever it takes. >> the vaccine has been rolled out in a meaningful way so we will start to see some very positive growth. >> they are doing what they need to do which is revive the economy. >> markets have been conditioned to expect predictable support from central banks. >> the public still has money in reserve, but the money is not circulating in the economy because people do not want to spend. announcer: this is bloomberg

surveillance. >> good morning, everyone. good morning. bloomberg radio, good morning. bloomberg television, good morning. an extraordinary, eventful week, it is always busy this time of year. we have got the overlay of what is going on this time in washington. the chinese president speaking earlier, the markets with all sorts of talk of bubbles. morgan stanley any moment on the bond bubble. john, an open question as you migrate back to new york, how was your sabbatical? jonathan: i read a lot about bubbles just like you did. to me, what is interesting is not the magnitude, what we don't talk enough about is the duration of the distortion. this distortion existed pre-coo

vid and has persisted for the best part of 10 years. typically we think of bubbles as something temporary. in the bond market, this is the story for the last several decades largely because of policy with central bankers. they hold the keys to unlocking the bubble as well. if they step back too quickly, i don't see any appetite for them to do that anytime soon. this is a very unique situation. a simple question with a complex answer, how long can it persist? tom: i like the duration idea. 1/8 of one percentage point. lisa, spx 12 months trailing up 17%. nasdaq up 45%. who knows, could be 60% i the end of the week. lisa, what caught your attention? lisa: the question of whether

you can have a bubble in specific corners, the special-purpose acquisition of companies. tom: totally agree. lisa: whether you can have a bubble that is allowed to deflate in those securities come in those bonds, while the rest of the market continues higher. and to jon's point, the fundamental backdrop of interest rates being critically low. to put this into perspective, this is a stock that for six years has lost value. annual sales have been down 40% over the past two years and meanwhile, traders are willing to pay more than 400% of what the street says is worthwhile. it does not make sense, tom. on a reddit case, perhaps it does. tom: we like dames, i am loving apex legends. it works.

this is really important as we begin this important conversation. jon, do you look at bubbles as segmented as lisa is talking about, or is this symbolic of the entire financial system? tom: i think every one has its own character. we saw that in 2007, different things happening in the industry. i don't think you can have this sweeping analysis and decide whether it is going to stay isolated or whether it spreads. if we are talking about big tech, if we are talking about the market, if we are talking about retail, we are not talking about the market. what are we talking about, gamestop? amazon, microsoft, apple? tom: clearly that is the uniqueness of persistence of revenue growth. red and green on the screen right now, dow goes the wrong way, nasdaq 100 having a good morning.

i'm not going to do much on the day because it is pretty sound as jon says. after the president spoke, xi not moving this morning. always moving and interested in the markets. morgan stanley, their global director of extend come -- of fixed income. if the equity market discrete or is your space in the bubblelike mark wilson's is? >> it is a question, i don't look at it in that sense. i look at it as what is the expectation and what is the policy and how do all these things come together? that is the key to where we are today and where we are going in the future. i think the key to us in terms of rate is really, how big the

incremental packages going to be and how soon it can happen. this fiscal policy really drives where rates are going to go forward. from the monetary policy side, we expect really not much change through the entire year. the fed will keep buying the bonds as they have clearly indicated at the pace they are buying now. they will keep that pace through the year, really no change in the curve. what that means really is entirely the bond market is going to be driven by the fiscal policy. how much more fiscal stimulus is going to come in, and how is it going to be funded, and what is the timing of that? jonathan: how big, how quickly, what is the answer with morgan stanley? >> is probably more likely to

happen. over the course of the year, we might see some more infrastructure built. the infrastructure built might mean another $100 billion if it is a 10 year infrastructure package. maybe another $100 billion. we think that the $1.9 trillion that the president has put forth will probably end up more in the $1.1 trillion range. lisa: who absorbs that? >> as long as it happens -- there is substantial interest in the market. we do expect that the interest rates will gradually rise. so, our year-end expectation at this point, 1.45% for the ten-year. if numbers become bigger, we might drift to 1.75%, but i

think considering the yield differential between the united states yields and the rest of the world yields, there is still a substantial difference. jonathan: can you decompose that just a little bit? what do you think gets us there, inflation expectations, somewhere else? >> the first thing as i said is how much fiscal policy gets there. and from that, how much issuance would have to happen. we do expect inflation expectations to continue to rise. there will be a contribution from inflation expectations going higher. and we also see that we have a strong view of the globe. as the globe picks up, we expect to see this happen gradually and

i think importantly, i don't think this will happen in a very jerky fashion, a sudden spike. the fed is very conscious of what happened during the taper tantrum, there are very conscious to ensure that does not happen. lisa: and yet mike wilson, your colleague, said that markets don't often work in a linear fashion, they can be much jerky year. that tends to be the move that you do see. and you have got a warning over the weekend saying that 1970's style inflation can return, there could be a massive spike in longer-term on yields. what do you say to the burgeoning inflationistas that seemed to be returning a little bit on the edges here? >> i don't compare the -- i don't expect the inflation to pick up, and not in the 70's fashion. the central bankers have not been able to engineer a consistent 2% type of inflation

for the last couple decades. we do expect we are where we are, we expect a gradual pickup of inflation to get to a 2% low by the end of the year. we've also seen the fed indicate to us that they would be much more tolerant of inflation going higher, meaning that the average inflation targeting would need to see inflation perhaps in the higher than 2% range, maybe 2.5% for some time before they put the brakes on the economy for monetary policy. i think higher inflation, but not a dramatically higher inflation. in the 2% range, that would be what the economy would demand, because of the economic response to both monetary and fiscal policy. jonathan: not too hot, not too cold, just right. always good to see you.

lisa, where do they come from? is it just a short-term supply chain story? just a story of people re-engaging with the economy when restrictions are lifted? or is there something longer-term? the latter i think is what drives central banks. i don't think the former is going to, not with this fed. lisa: there are a lot of unknowns. i have not seen the degree of uncertainty that there currently is around inflation in my entire career. you also have supply chain backups that are causing big increases in prices and if that alone happens, that is temporary. but combined with some of these other factors, that is a question. jonathan: is tom still with us, is he still around? are you looking at tom brady? we muted him?

lisa: we muted him, great radio. jonathan: coming back to the office, this is my gift. i'm going to use it a lot. coming up on this program, alongside tom keene and lisa brown, i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ♪ karina: president biden hearing it from republicans and democrats, lawmakers want him to justify the 1.9 trillion dollar price tag for his covid-19 relief plan. 16 senate democrats and republicans spoke on a call with the white house economic advisor. susan collins says she will press the bipartisan group to come up with a narrower plan. another grim marker for the u.s.

in the pandemic spike. total infections have exceeded 25 million, the world's highest total. that is roughly 8% of the population. the death toll has now topped 417,000. the mexican president has tested positive for the coronavirus. he is 67 years old and says his symptoms are mild. he generally held a lax approach to the virus, refusing to impose mandatory lockdowns and usually does not wear a mask. xi jinping culling on the world to abandon what he called an outdated mentality. he says china will continue regardless of western criticism. those were his first remarks since joe biden took office. and shares of the world's largest movie theater chain, amc, says they have raised $970 million in debt and equities and talk.

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>> the chinese are certainly the most advanced in the world in terms of the digitalization of retail products.

i think china is pausing to reflect as to whether it has the right levers to control what would simply be the application of individual consumers. jonathan: douglas flint, much more on that in just a moment. i'm jonathan ferro. for the audience worldwide live on bloomberg tv and radio, this is bloomberg surveillance. with about one hour 12 minutes to go until the opening bell, outperformance on the nasdaq, the s&p 500 up 5, a little more than 1/10 of 1% gain. the curve is a bit flatter, yields a little bit lower. we won't get to the euro story for just a moment. i am fascinated with europe for all the wrong reasons on the vaccine front. a slightly weaker euro. tom: i have not seen the

euro-yen breakdown. you look at the euro as it relates to the yen, that really has not broken down strong yen yet, but i do want to mention this is an incredibly rich and busy earnings week as well. we will have full coverage for you on radio and television. jon mentioned china, we heard president xi and we now speak to a true authority on this. george is at oxford university's china center. we are thrilled he can join us after his usually readable effort red flags. thrilled to have you on this day with the leader of china. what did he not say? he is very good at saying the appropriate things. what did he not speak of? george: well, i only heard brief snippets of his address. what he didn't say actually, of

course, are the things that you would never expect him to say, which of course are the nuances about china's economic recovery. i mean, he does talk about how we mustn't have a cold war mentality, which he did not say he was partially responsible for injecting into the global system. he did say that decoupling leads to division which is obviously a pointed remark at the united states, not saying that china has been doing selective decoupling for years. and he did say that openness and inclusiveness are really important, which is something that he did not say china doesn't really practice there are a lot of things that he said which are the opposite of what actually takes place in the country. jonathan: this is the big question, what could the incoming administration do to change the behavior of china? getting them to say the right things on the international change in the world economic forum, that is one thing. getting them to act differently is another.

do you expect a change in approach from the new administration of the united states? george magnus: i expect a change in tone, but not really a change of substance. we have seen enough and heard enough already even though it is only like a week old, not even, the administration. the appointees who are in key positions, i don't really hear or sense any marked change of direction. i think it would be unusual, given what we know about the individuals concerned, if there wasn't a change of tone, and certainly strengthening alliances, whether that is with europe or with australia, japan and india, much stronger overtures aimed at pacific countries. these kinds of things will be forthcoming and i think it is

something which the chinese actually will probably be fearful of and why they probably did not want him elected. i think that is where the rubber is going to be the road, a more united front amongst countries to confront china on very important issues. but not necessarily on tariffs which are never really going to be changing. lisa: meanwhile, financial markets have been voted between the u.s. and china and opting for china. there is data saying that china overtook the united states for the first time as the world's top destination for new foreign direct investments this past year, and this has been ongoing with a huge shift of financial firms trying to expand to china despite these ongoing tensions between the u.s. and china. do you think that this money is well-founded in terms of its bet on the chinese economy going forward based on its preeminence and how it has recovered versus the u.s. and europe? george magnus: lisa, like so

many things, there is so much nuance involved. i'm not saying that every company that puts money to work in china is putting it down the drain, but we also have to recognize that there is a lot of self-serving money going into china and justifying it on the basis of being there for that reason. but i think that the essence of the u.n. report you referred to, i mean, the world is basically imploding because of the pandemic. foreign direct investment ground to a halt. china managed to, to its credit, to suppress covid and allow its economy to come back reasonably well during the last part of 2020. and the fdi flow going into china went up by 4%. we are talking about a huge amount. i mean, -- i mean, credit where

credit is due, they certainly managed to accomplish something which the rest of us are looking at green with envy. but it comes at a time when we are getting on top of our pandemic problems. jonathan: great to catch up, please come back soon. george magnus of the university of china center research. tom, the world economic forum, you and i have discussed whether that has become wholly redundant. i find it amazing that over the weekend, charles schwab was in the press talking about not inviting donald trump back to the forum at the same time that there were reports that president putin could address the form and xi jinping gets to address the forum this morning. the leader of the united states from the outgoing administration accused of genocide just a couple of weeks ago. the world economic forum, the

leader of the country of the united states of america, the outgoing administration accused of genocide gets to address the world economic forum but a former president of the united states is hesitant about inviting back a former u.s. president. tom: it is different than inviting back versus speaking. i have seen former prime minister's there and many others. to invite mr. trump back seems to be common sense but the tradition is that the sitting officials are the ones that speak. of course, i am sure we would want to hear from president biden as well. jonathan: anyone that gets that stage should face the questioning from the free press. tom: we have never seen that. that is a sensitive topic. jonathan: you should not get the megaphone if you don't get the questions afterwards. from new york city this morning, good morning. i'm jonathan ferro.

for our audience worldwide, coming up, dwight evans of pennsylvania. about one hour and four minutes away from the open. futures up on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: from new york city, this is bloomberg surveillance live on bloomberg tv and radio. counting down to the opening bell. this monday morning, futures positive just about on the s&p 500. a clear outperformance is on the nasdaq. big apple performance as well continues. this yields lower by about three basis points to 1.06% on a ten-year. don't want to sit on this too long as we get to that taper conversation around the federal reserve this wednesday. the euro-dollar and

foreign-exchange, this gets a little more interesting. coming in about 1/10 of 1%. we closed out 2020 and started 2021 by having a conversation about global growth. anyone familiar with the dollar knows that the dollar starts to weaken. lots of people did that, and this is where we sit at the moment. is it still going to be that global recovery, synchronized growth in 2021? how do you leverage that story through europe? we start to think about growth differentials a little bit more and we start to express that through various ways including this, including the u.s. dollar. the vaccination rollout is not synchronized, it is very fragmented. i mentioned that earlier this morning. 100 people in each and every country, 40 doses for 100

people. the u.k., somewhere near 10. germany, two. that gap is getting wider. at what point do you start to expect the united states relative to europe, the u.s. outperformance, european underperformance, i am going to put stock in the euro-dollar, euro negative. instead of global cycles, synchronized growth. tom: but what is so important here is the euro-dollar is not so much the debate over stimulus now, but just the assumption that there will be two forms of government legislation, government programs. whether it is $1 trillion now, there is just an assumption of a follow-on program wrapped around

more enduring programs for the nation. anyway you put it, that is a wallop, that is a stimulus into the nation as well, that is going to boost gdp. i guess the assumption is euro 1.18, but i don't want to be predictive. jonathan: it is only stimulus if the economy is open. otherwise it is just aid. where does the money go if it is stimulus? it goes into a savings account. the united states can do more. when the economy reopens, that money will get spent. at the moment, we are still talking about aid. so let's say you have in the united states a quarter of the population to europe. a $1 trillion plan in the united states. if the u.s. is opening, i'm not going to look at a fiscal program and say we are going to have secret eyes growth if the u.s. is opening and european

markets are not open. because they have not had the vaccination rolled out in the same way in the states. it is about having that conversation about growth differentials a lot more. what surprised me at the moment is we just about started to have back-check right now but we are not seeing it in the market yet, we are not seeing it in foreign-exchange in a pronounced way. we are going to have that conversation a little bit more but if the u.s. continues at this rate, the u.s. opens better than europe. it is pretty clear. at what point do we start to push this through markets? right now, i don't see it. tom: we don't see it with foreign-exchange but clearly it is expressed with huge, ambiguous inflation calls as well. lisa, a lot of this will be clarity by the time we stagger to the end of the week. we are from the edge of 100 companies that will report and there is some huge disparity between some companies that are really adjusted and some have even prospered versus others

that have a real struggle. lisa: the bigger the company, typically the better they have done. the companies that have no revenue whatsoever, speaking of carnival and amc, still have to raise money. the interesting thing, and the thing that jon was articulating, the idea that the vaccination schedule may be the most important statistic to track in terms of foreign-exchange and in terms of where to put your money. this is what analysts said over the weekend and it really raised the question given the fact that the dollar weakness seems to be getting questions by the fact that the u.s. is doing a heck of a lot better than the european union when it comes to the rollout. tom: and it comes back to the basic idea of earnings. let me give you these levels again, let me start with spx only because farro is back in the building. jon on the 4000 watch on spx. dow, an important index, 31,000.

the dow having a tough day of it. only 30 important companies. the nasdaq 100, 13,000 with a life of its own. right now as we spoke -- we speak to mr. evans of philadelphia, pennsylvania. his district is hugely democratic, and he is the leader of the third district of pennsylvania. we are thrilled that he could join us this morning. dwight evans, you have a new congress, you are in charge, you've got the president, you've got the house again. 50-50, vice president harris will give that important vote in the senate. what is your team needing to do to affect policy? dwight evans: first, good morning to you. i think that what we need to do

is attempt to bring people together within the congress. i think that with president biden and vice president harris, the attempt to bring people together would be much advised. there is a joint connection between that and the economy coming back. i believe that president biden and vice president harris will demonstrate that type of leadership, so first off, with the vaccine distribution, labeling the initiative -- they will end the initiative that the president has put forward, the distribution of the vaccine which i think is very essential. the second part of it is dealing with the economy. dealing with the economy in terms of small businesses,

investing in infrastructure, schools reopening. and the president, as he stated, is basically attempting to deal with both sides of the democrats and republicans. tom: congressman, you now provide important leadership. you are joined by rev. warnock of georgia and you are also joined by a vice president of the united states with a historic heritage. how will the new black caucus look going forward? dwight evans: i think that the new black caucus will look to get something done, which is very essential. we know that either party cannot do by themselves, and that is the reality. the black caucus was essential to form an alliance to attack

the virus and to figure out how you deal with small businesses. that is really important in terms of rebuilding, building back this economy. that is the reality that we face. i believe that the president, if given the opportunity, can do those things. you not talking about somebody who is new at this. president biden and vice president harris have the necessary skill sets. when you look at historically presidential experience, he has years of experience in the senate. the vice president of the united states. you are talking at 60 members in the congressional black caucus, you're talking about six members on the ways and means committee. if given the opportunity to implement the division and the agenda that he has. lisa: there is a question about impeachment at this point and

going forward with the trial given the immediacy of the vaccination rollout as well as the aid needed to get to people. do you think it is a mistake to move ahead so quickly with impeaching the former president? dwight evans: i believe we can do more than one thing. i believe is a question of accountability. the house has voted for impeachment and that is now passing to the senate. i believe that we can conduct both, we can implement the agenda regarding the virus and the economy, and we also can deal with impeachment. it is a question of accountability. it is not like the constitution has written somewhere that you can avoid the aspect of accountability. no one is above the question of accountability. i believe that the process will be conducted in a very fair way and we should move forward.

jonathan: thanks for being with us this morning and we appreciate your patience as we had some technical problems just moments ago. please come back soon. dwight evans of pennsylvania. futures trending just a little bit negative. dr. fauci addressing the world economic forum. he is worried about delays of the second covid vaccine dosage. tom: it is serious, but the answer, this is really serious. for those of you like me who have the first dose, it is critical to get the second within the window. i am getting in as close as i can do that next appropriate date, i believe it is 19 days out for the pfizer vaccine. it is just basic, basic microbiology of vaccines. you have got to get a second dose, that booster shot when you have to. jonathan: the big challenges managing supply issues. that challenge is not going away anytime soon.

coming up -- tom: you're going to another program? i thought the properties were gone after this. jonathan: you get 40 minutes more of me on this show, and then i drift away. tom: i had no idea. jonathan: i know you have been lobbying for my program. i got told when i got back. i look forward to that chat. i mean it. this is bloomberg. ♪ karina: there are signals president biden faces challenges in enacting the first 1.9 trillion dollar virus relief package. republicans and democrats on a call with the economic advisor asked for justification of the size of the proposal. susan collins says she will see if they can come up with their own plan. boris johnson and joe biden, the

british prime minister was the first to receive a phone call since the inauguration. the u.s. statement did not mention a free-trade deal. a new deal with the u.s. is a top priority for johnson. the kremlin downplaying calls for the release of alexei navalny. thousands of demonstrators, tens of thousands of protesters gathered in freezing temperatures. they have been warmed they could face -- warned they could face charges of mass disorder. and deutsche bank investigating complaints some employees followed risky investments for clients that did not understand them and then share the profits -- shared the profits. it appears only spain and portugal-based clients were affected.

global news 24 hours a day on air and @quicktake on twitter. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. much more to come, stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we will see in the technology company earnings this week that their power, i expect we will

see very strong results and that there emerging power has grown and that will naturally raise questions. tom: right now we are going to dive into a conversation on radio and television on the state of the american economy, and we do this with great respect for the number of moving parts going on. just as one example, hospitalizations seem to maybe have been broken over the last five or six days to a better statistic. bloomberg economics chief u.s. economist joins us right now. tom keene and lisa brown. the readjustment to better numbers. i can assume it has never been a harder task for anybody in economics right now. what is the signpost you are looking at as you try to recalibrate to more optimistic numbers? >> good morning, tom. the signposts we are watching

are those that are trying to draw a distinction between what happened during the first wave of infections back in march, april of last year, and how things were similar in how things were different in the current environment. we are seeing really substantial differences were we have much higher hospitalization rates and mortality rates, infection rates, but far less impact on the economy. that is why i expect a response to the recent string of data to actually mark up the fourth quarter gdp which will be out later this week to around 2.5%. now it looks like the number is closer to 5%. tom: the part of the american economy that is doing better, is that a persistent doing better, or is it a one-off due to stimulus this-or-that? carl riccadonna: the part that are doing better seem to be industries that have adapted to the world of social distancing and working remotely, etc.

things like brick-and-mortar retail clearly are still struggling as we saw with retail sales over the course of the fourth quarter. but as we look at other industries, manufacturing, industrial production in general, even some services that are able to operate in the new environment, things like financial services and real estate, for example, we are seeing incredible resilience in those industries. i do think this is a sustainable improvement, not just a one-time reaction to stimulus. lisa: how much can the fed recognize the good news that you're talking about in a press conference where they are going to try to avoid any discussion of a taper tantrum or a taper concern afterwards? how much do they have to ignore the good news? carl riccadonna: at the risk of being glib, the fed can sit back and pick up -- kick up its feet in 2021. they did the heavy lifting in

terms of policy maneuvering and also in terms of communication in 2020. now is the time to sit back and reap the fruits of that hard work so they acknowledge some improvement in the economy, certainly upside risks due to the fact that we have fiscal stimulus 2.0, 3.0 percolating through the system depending on the negotiations with congress. but we are seeing some elimination of downside risk. that being said, the new variants that are spreading, the vaccine distribution supply chain, all of those things could be the downside risks as well. i think the fed acknowledges modest improvements, but the key theme is going to be something sherman jay powell said in the webinar a week or two ago, where he said it is not even time to start thinking about or talking about the exit. lisa: kicking up their heels,

putting them on the table and just staring at the camera. there is a question about what the trigger perhaps a little upset to just putting your heels on the table and sitting back and enjoying your work. if we do get some sort of larger than expected increase of inflation, which actually does force them to address when they will start to care about it or start thinking about things, what do you think would be the catalyst for such an increase in inflation expectations that some people are starting to predict? carl riccadonna: the catalyst for that type of inflation would be unemployment rate falling to about 3.5%, lisa. i say that because the reality is that is not happening anytime soon. we are going to see incredible stickiness in the unemployment rate as we see all of those labor force dropouts from 2020 eventually coaxed back into the labor market.

the risk of a sustained pickup and inflation soon, and my tsunami the next year or two -- and by soon i mean the next year or two, it is just not there. this time, economic slack will keep a firm and heavy lid on inflation prices and so the fed is going to continually look through these pressures until we actually see wage pressures in the labor market and what we have observed over the last 50 years of data is that we have less and less response in the labor market in each economic cycle. tom: when you studied economic history, have you ever seen what a massive kink we have got in america, the great separation of our inequality? have you ever seen the ability to apply stimulus to the people that really need it? carl riccadonna: if we look at

the coefficient that we are talking about in equality levels going back to either the 1920's or the 1890's, the inequality meter goes back and forth over time. there certainly is an ability to redistribute income if needed, but the question is if there the political willingness to do that. taxation in stimulus policy is how you even out that inequality in the short run. in the longer run, it is things like health care and education. it can be done, the question is if it is there. with such thin majorities, i appetite is there.li tom: we will see that jobs report and important gdp data. lisa, you hear that, you and i

are doing the same thing, walking around new york city going, really? lisa: it is everywhere. it is global, and this is really important. this report basically said that since the pandemic took hold, it took nine months for the wealthiest individuals in the world to recoup all losses and it might take 10 years for the world's poorest residents to recoup the same, and that timmy me highlights the stark difference in the record rise of inequality due to the pandemic. tom: i am really watching the next four weeks, the dynamic in africa on covid because i think there is a lot of really difficult data reporting and some of those trends have just begun to nudge. red and green on the screen. 23 .36. some of the tensions coming off dr. fauci speaking at the virtual davos thsi year.

coming up on bloomberg markets, an important conversation. france's economy minister. stay with us through the day on radio and tv. good morning. ♪

jonathan: good morning. the countdown for the open starts right now. 30 minutes to go, futures positive. we begin with republicans pushing back against president biden's plan >> the total figure is pretty shocking, if you will. the idea that we need a stimulus is a little hard to understand. i am convinced that if you want to see this economy get going, we have to get beyond borrowing trillions of dollars. it is not the best thing we could do to get our economy to be strong long-term. jonathan: the biden administration moving. he had. -- moving full speed ahead. >> we are going to move fast. i do not think bipartisanship and speed are enemies. the need is urgent.