tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg January 26, 2021 1:00am-2:00am EST
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begins. and contee will go but perhaps not for long. italy's prime minister will resign in an effort to form his third government. we are in the middle of a busy earnings season. let's run you through the highlights. you are starting off with novartis, fourth quarter ets comes in. a marginal beat. the fiscal year dividend per share is three swiss francs, but they are saying that sales are expected to grow low to mid single digits for novartis. this set of numbers absolutely crucial going into this surging covid-19 pandemic which has been expected to weigh on novartis sales. topline revenues were expected to have been boosted according to analysts. commentary on any newly approved multiple sclerosis treatments
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are going to be of particular interest as well as the margin outlook. let's also remind you we are going to be speaking to the ceo of novartis. that is going to be a discussion around the pharma giant's earnings as well as the vaccine rollout. that conversation happened at 7:00 a.m. u.k. time. let's get to ubs. the largest wealth manager in the world and the beat on fourth-quarter net income. they also announced a share buyback that is going to be cascaded over a period of three years. ralph hammers, the new ceo, trying to find his foot at the new bank. other highlights from the earnings announcement, they basically are doubling the size of the previous repurchase program and they are saying they are expecting to buy $1.1 billion of shares in the fourth quarter. they saw a rise in income and the investment bank revenue also was pushed higher. that helped bring in this set of results.
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it is a boost for the new ceo who has been in focus because of the scandal that has overshadowed his start from a previous engagement with ing. the focus on wealthy clients by ubs -- ubs stock has outperformed the benchmark swiss stock index over the past year. we will get more reaction throughout the day. from the ceo of ubs, rob hamers, he is going to be reflecting on his first earnings day since taking the helm of the largest wealth manager in the world. don' miss that at 7:00 a.m. u.k. time. give us the flavor -- it gives us the flavor in terms of what they expect from major european banks. it is a day where we are seeing risk aversion across the board on the s&p 500 and of course the euro stoxx 50 story. what pushed sentiment lower was news the u.s. fiscal relief package might get delayed.
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we are not looking at a breakthrough until possibly mid march. we have more earnings coming through including microsoft and lvmh. u.s. tens getting closer and closer act down to the 1% mark. treasuries holding gains. the curve had flattened. the three week run we have had, about 1% is looking more and more elusive. euro-dollar at 1.2128. we count down to the fed decision. the options markets are pricing in a dovish stance. brent crude, little bit lower, just above $55 a barrel. vaccines are not proving to be the quickfix remedy for the coronavirus pandemic the world had hoped they would be. the latest distribution stumble comes from astrazeneca with the eu accusing the drugmaker of backsliding on its contract as governments scramble to get as
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many people vaccinated as possible. president biden has set an ambitious target for america. pres. biden: i think it will be this spring, but it is going to be a logistical challenge that exceeds anything we have ever tried in this country. i think we can do that. i feel confident that by summer we are going to be well on our way to herd immunity. yousef: in the rush to ramp-up vaccinations, more countries are adopting the u.k. strategy of delaying the second dose. the u.s. top infectious disease chief anthony fauci warns against the untested message -- method. >> you don't get full efficacy until you get the second dose. if you allow suboptimal efficacy , you can actually select more mutations when you do that. that is why the reason why it may not be the case, but it gets risky.
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that is the reason why we prefer to keep it on the time the clinical trial said. >> the other battle the biden administration has to fight is over his relief plan with the president saying he is open to negotiate the package to get bipartisan approval. democrats are hoping to get the bill approved by mid-march. joining us now is a senior columnist at berber. what is your sense in terms of how much water down these $1.9 trillion relief package ambitions could get? >> it could get water down. it depends on what republicans do, whether or not biden wants to reach over the line or if he just needs democrats. the thing to keep in mind is that although the u.s. and the world is suffering during this big wave of the pandemic, there
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is quite a bit of pent-up demand we should be focusing on. we get disappointment on the fiscal side, market should not panic. because of the fiscal transfers during the course of 2020, it is probably to the tune of $1.5 trillion sat on household balance sheets. households will spend that once the world reopens, once they feel more confident the virus is progressing in a way that means we won't have future restrictions. keep in mind that by spring, if things are looking better, households are probably going to go to the shops in a big way. yousef: what are we going to get from the fomc? are they going to be able to walk this fine line they are trying to? >> the fed is committed to seriously lifting inflation expectations. to the extent markets may think
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in time they are starting to behave a little baffling. the u.s. after years of low interest rates wants to reinflate the economy. it has to go through a period of above 2% inflation to meet its new mandate. the way to do that is to be very dovish so the fed will lean against any expectations of rising inflation, keep rates low. that is going to last at least through the end of this year. i expect that to be very dovish. much like ms. yellen. yousef: the great reflation trade of 2021. what is going to happen? that is what the markets live team is asking. you are getting closer back down to that 1% mark, precariously close with the 10 year yield falling to that level. how far can the latest bond rally go?
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>> the fed is doing their job. to cram liquidity into bond markets and keep yields low. my cursory survey of people in markets is despite this current pickup with the pandemic, the outlook is for increasing inflation, increasing nominal gdp growth. there is a gap emerging between what interest rate markets are showing and what genuine expectations are. that cannot last forever, but probably until summer, and later this year we start to see bond to start to price in more inflation. if we are past this pandemic, central banks won't mind if interest rates creep up. yousef: we still have a lot of ground to cover. kellen pickering stays with me. >> ubs is boosting shareholder
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returns planning to buy back $4.5 billion over the next three years. rising income and investment bank revenue are propelling gains. the results are a boost to the ceo whose start at the bank has been overshadowed by a probe into money laundering at his former employer. italian prime minister giuseppe conte is stepping down in what is being described as a tactical resignation, seeking to avoid acknowledging defeat in the senate as the senate lens to ask for another shot at forming a government. the biggest party in his coalition has slumped in the polls. barcelona has kept its spot as europe's top footballers but only by a -- it's all revenue dropped by more than 100 million euros, second on the leaderboard, the rivalry all madrid, the highest english team
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is united. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. yousef: let's get to another developing front. the world economic forum is in full swing and they are looking at a different format this year. world leaders meet virtually to discuss a crucial year to rebuild trust. bloomberg brings the action today. francine lacqua is going to be moderating a panel with the barclays ceo and you have the governor of the bank of france. don't miss that powerful discussion. here is what is in the pipeline. france's finance minister warns of the economic fallout of a third lockdown. we will bring you the wide-ranging thoughts from that conversation. ♪
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yousef: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." let's get to president emmanual macron as he faces mounting pressure to impose another national lockdown this week. that comes as covid-19 cases threaten to overwhelm the french hospital system. the finance minister bruno le maire told bloomberg there has been no decision to implement another nationwide lockdown. he says the ministry will continue to support all sectors affected by the virus. >> i want to insist on the fact nothing has been decided yet. we have a very important meeting on wednesday. we will assess the situation and take the required decisions. once again, nothing has been decided yet.
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we will support all economic sectors that are hit by the crisis as long as it will be needed. if we are to take new measures, we will have also to provide new support to sectors that will be more severely hit by these measures. it will be very clear that we have decided from the very beginning of march 2020 to support the employees, support the company, support all the sectors that have been hit by the crisis. we will continue to do the same as long as the pandemic will continue to spike -- strike france and europe. >> how long do you think support is going to be required? are you starting to change your thinking about the duration of this pandemic? there was an assumption that, for instance, the travel and
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tourism sector would be back to normal by this summer. that is increasingly being called into question. are you starting to rethink the duration of this? >> i think back to normal is the kind of wording i would not use for the time being. it would be too tricky. our assumption is we have to divide the year 2021 in two parts. the first part of 2021, let's say to next summer, i think we will have to continue supporting economic sectors in france. once again, we have decided to do seven the very beginning. it will be political, social, and an economic mistake to withdraw that kind of measure while the pandemic is still there. i hope that in the second part of 2021 we will be able to lift
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the measures for health security. we will be able to alleviate difficulties. in that case, if the pandemic is over, we can count on the rebound of the french economy on the second part of 22 anyone. what makes me confident about the situation, the economic situation in france, is that when we had decided on summer 2020 to lift measures, the help measures, there has been a very strong rebound in the french economy, which means we have everything that is required to have a very strong and very quick rebound as soon as the pandemic is over.
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yousef: bruno le maire there. kallum pickering is still with me. the concern that kind of strikes me as around -- is around economic scarring. the longer lockdowns last, the deeper those scars on the european mainland continent become, right? kallum: that is right. economies are being held in an imperfect state of suspended animation. by and large, as you rightly note, it increases over time. we only realize how much scarring there is once we finally open up. my hunch is there is less scarring than people think and we probably have a good few months left before we start to worry about scarring that could
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impair the short-term recovery or could cause such a problem that growth in the future is lower as a result of the scarring of the pandemic. businesses are really struggling at the moment in terms of certainty about the future. what they are not struggling with his cash flow because of the ago -- aggressive government support. i think most firms will be fine, and that seems to be the working assumption, not just for markets, but governments. yes, it is expensive, but we can afford it. yousef: also, the fragility of the italian government. are you a believer in the relative stability that they are going to be able to distribute grants they get from the eu? that is ultimately all that matters. kallum: i would ask, when our markets not worried about the stability of an italian
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government? this is par for the course. what we are probably seeing today is a dance where mr. c onte resigns, parliament looks at the current situation, the virus, the fact the government has been doing ok, why not come together, find a new broad coalition, and managed through? that seems to be what markets are pricing in. the downside risk is that fails, mr. conte cannot form a new government. the question becomes the key issue and markets start to worry, what is the shape of the italian recovery? otherwise the working assumption should be we have a new government and we start to spend money to get a recovery underway. yousef: we still want to get to some of the other news. kallum pickering stays with the program.
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it is shaping up to be a decade of finding -- for global business. bloomberg brings together ceos to map out. we are going to be speaking with the ceos of helton and carnival. make sure to pencil at into your agenda. here is what is coming up. after a riproaring rally that sent stocks above the 140 5% mark in terms of gains, short-sellers are doubling down including a new firm backed by ken griffin and steve cohen. ♪
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daybreak: europe." a has swept financial markets in china and hong kong. it comes after some signals from the regulators from people close to the pboc decision-making process that there could be a scenario where they withdraw funds from the banking system amid warnings about growing -- with the hang seng now more than 2% lower, tencent leading the losses, the plunge initially 5%, so close to that. chinese government bonds also pointed for the biggest decline since august. the pboc advisor speaking on the risk of asset -- another developing story, thanks to reddit users, gamestop shares had a gigantic day at one point rallying as much as 145% before hearing some of those gains. shares from blackberry to u.s.
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retailers saw big surges. dani burger has the details. why did the stoxx see this massive surge? what are analysts saying? >> this is a really crazy story, but this is a phenomenon that has been going on for more than a year. that is this retail interest on reddit and robinhood really driving the stock shares. i want to take gamestop as an example. starting with the initial fundamental story, one of a short, it is a videogame retailer. short interest is driving up this interest ratio. at the same time, this interesting narrative emerging on reddit, essentially pitting short-sellers at the establishment. reddit uses mostly call options. we see a record amount of call options being traded on gamestop. that surpassed the traded volume
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for tesla, which also has a lot of call interest. people were also publishing sort of the equivalent of research touting the fundamental of the company even though they used more colorful language than we probably see in a report. what you get is dealers who are hedging this call option exposure. to do so, they need to buy the underlying stock. then you get short-sellers who are squeezed out of their position so they start to buy as well. you get the snowballing effect added with reddit users doing this kind of yolo trade and buying it. i think a great way to describe it is that this shows us people are interested in flows before p ros. yousef: i have signed up to reddit. i'm not going to show you my username. it is a vast space of interesting views. a lot of momentum and energies. where do short-sellers stand? >> everyone is going to be trying to find your username. when it comes to short-sellers,
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they have not given up. according to data at the moment, 139% of the shares floated are being short. this is a massive amount. a lot of people who had that position to begin with probably got squeezed out. but what we have seen is since the rally goes up, you get new people joining on that short position who have yet to get burned. at the same time, both citadel and point72 announced they are infusing $3 billion into a hedge fund melvin capital that has lost 30% so far this year, partially because of their gamestop short. this has not discourage the professionals to go ahead and short gamestop. yousef: thanks for the moment. here's what is coming up. anger grows in the european union over astrazeneca's vaccine delivery delays. more on that next. ♪
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we speak to the new ceo. italy's prime minister will resign in an effort to form his third government. let's get you to the market action. a bit of risk aversion creeping in after news the fiscal stimulus package where the virus relief bill in the united states could get delayed until mid-march. we are lower on s&p 500 futures and euro futures as well. the markets live team writing euro stoxx 50 futures are likely to break low -- below the 50 day moving average even where we are with sentiment. u.s. tens, 1.02 on your yield, holding gains, treasuries, but we are getting closer and closer to that key 1% mark that looked pretty much a foregone conclusion the last eight weeks. we have taken for granted. euro-dollar, 1.2130. we count down to the fed decision. the options pricing in the dollar suggests a dovish stance.
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brent crude a little bit as well. the path higher from current levels will likely be more of a slow grind higher in terms of price action. vaccines are improving -- are not proving to be the quickfix remedy that the world hoped they would be. the process has been hampered by distribution delays and now the european union is set to require drugmakers to provide a registry of coronavirus vaccine exports. it comes amid anger over delivery delays by astrazeneca. the block health commissioner says the eu invested in development and want to see the return. >> this new schedule is not acceptable to the european union. that is why i wrote a letter to the company in which i asked important and serious questions. the european union has refinanced the development of
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the vaccine and its production and wants to see the return. yousef: for more we are joined by maria tadeo in brussels. are we looking into lawsuits next? is that right? maria: potentially. the european union is furious about the potential delay from astrazeneca. this is a serious problem and they are setting they are -- saying they are ready to take all action. that could mean a lawsuit. that may also mean, and this is something i have heard over the past few hours, we want to reinstate a ban of all exports of vaccines made in europe. if it gets made in europe, it needs to be sold to the europeans. what i would stress is that kind of language we heard yesterday right now in that clip from the european health commissioner is very unusual. it is unusual to see a new situation come out in those terms. i want to read you some of the lines in that statement.
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she said, the european union made an upfront payment to make sure this did not happen, but also goes on to say we want to know where vaccines are being made by astrazeneca. we want to know how many have been made. we want to know if and to whom they have been delivered. read between the lines, the concerns from the european commission is very clear. the money is being used for vaccines that are going somewhere else. yousef: in italy the crisis carries on. it is a risky move we saw by conte. what is the chronology like? maria: it is a risky move, very technical. 9:00 a.m. local time, he will tell this cabinet he intends to resign and then go over to the president of the italian republic to make that step. he could decide given the mandate for new government, that
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would be the third government since he was put in office. he was never elected. i was told, and this is telling, once you enter that room, you may be demoted to a cardinal. you lose control of the process when the head of the italian republic gets in and you don't. he does not have a majority so it is not like he has many options at this point. yousef: running out of space. thank you for that. let's get now to the first word news to recap the other big global stories. >> the u.k. is set to decide on a plan to use hotels to quarantine visitors from overseas to stop the spread of the new variant of the coronavirus. the death toll is likely to pass 100,000 this week. hospitals are still feeling the strain. across the channel, france's
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warning a new lockdown would hit economic recovery. >> if there is a decision of lockdown in france, of course it will have a direct effect on the forecast. it will be difficult to reach 6%. >> janet yellen has been concerned -- confirmed as the treasury secretary of the united states, the first woman in the job. she will oversee the economy charting a course out of the pandemic. she was also the first woman to lead the federal reserve and becomes the second person to hold both jobs. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. yousef: thanks, laura. here is a bit of a preview. the u.k. talks of the u.s. trade deal. britain's trade secretary tells the majority of the text is done. this is bloomberg.
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yousef: president xi jinping has called on the world to return to multilateralism as he signals china will continue to forge ahead with its own path regardless of western criticism. take a listen. >> the strong should not bully the week. decisions should not be made by showing off strong muscles or waving a big fist. multilateralism should not be used as pretense for acts of unilateralism. yousef: that was the chinese
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president's first address since joe biden became president. the white house spokeswoman said the remarks don't change anything about the biden administration in terms of how it is approaching the relationship with beijing. >> we are starting from an approach of patients as it relates to our relationship. that means we are going to have consultations with our allies, with democrats and republicans, and we are going to allow the interagency process to work its way through to review and assess how we should move forward with our relationship. yousef: the u.k. trade secretary is brushing aside skepticism about the prospect for a trade deal with the u.s.. list trust said the bulk of the agreement is already done. >> it is a good deal. provided against him quickly. it is a deal in -- provided it gets done quickly.
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we have a very important multilateral agenda. the wto has not been working well. we need to challenge unfair practices and work with the united states as well as japan and the eu on those issues. i think there was a good deal to be done. i will discuss the timeframe for that agreement. in all of the trade deals we are negotiating, the united kingdom is never going to be forced by some deadline into a deal that does not benefit britain. yousef: the advice coming from your department and other departments was they should set up separate hubs. you are saying that is not official policy. how should small businesses deal with this? they are facing a lot of friction and they are struggling to reach their end-users. >> the cabin office have a brexit task force to support businesses in all the procedures they need to go through.
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the information is available on the go.uk website. we are already seeing a greater flow. we are seeing supermarkets in northern ireland stopped. we have always said there would be processes that businesses would be required to go through. >> what would you say to a british business that has listened to what has been said it, is looking at the option of setting up a hub in the eu, and is wondering what the best solution is? if i rang up your department now and spoke to somebody from your department, what would they advise me? i'm really curious. the observer was detailed suggesting bridge businesses are being advised to do this. i'm wondering what the
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alternative is. >> they are absolutely not. my department gives businesses information which is set up by the capital about the way the rules work. it is for businesses to decide how to run their operations. we do not give advice on that. yousef: british trade secretary liz truss. kallum pickering is still here. how does the british government get out of this, rebuilding confidence not just among the public, but also investors? kallum: that is a good question. what we are experiencing is what most economists and markets have warned about. that brexit will harm u.k. economic growth prospects. inside the eu, the u.k. was enjoying growth around 2%. outside the single market that
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is 1.7%. it is a bad economic policy to lose 0.3 percentage points from a growth rate which is not that high in historical terms. the other side of that is since we had the deal, the near-term economic disruption is not as bad as we were warned. for businesses, there are troubles, but it is like starting a new job. it is complicated, but after a while, it becomes second nature. these frictions will seem less bad three month from now. the point stands this is bad for u.k. potential growth. it is bad for the way markets perceive the u.k.. the government has a big job to promote companies the way you don't do that is by flirting with the idea of tax hikes in the middle of a pandemic. yousef: we are counting down to the release of data from the
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u.k. on jobless figures. the range is expected to have increased in the month of november. run me through your projections in terms of the damage that has been done to the economy. kallum: the labor market across europe, the data is difficult to interpret. the unemployment rate and employment rate don't factor into furloughed workers. in the u.s. if you are furloughed you are counted as unemployed. in europe you are counted as employed. the u.k. unemployment rate, it is higher than pre-pandemic, but not as bad as you might have expected given the historic economic shocks. the data we should be focusing on are the rate of redundancies and the number of vacancies. that tells an interesting story. the redundancy rate is rising, but the vacancy rate is also recovery.
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labor demand seems to be picking up. once the furlough scheme ends on the 30th of april, what does the headline unemployment rate looks like in may? i think we could be close to around 7%. of course it is bad. it is not that 3.8 we had pre-pandemic. given the shot, it is not a huge increase in employment. the second half of the year, the rate can probably fall to sub-6%. yousef: when does the economy bought amount? when could we see momentum bounced in economic activity, given the challenges the government is facing with the vaccine rollout? kallum: it is a question of what comes first. real progress with the vaccine or the remission of the virus as the warm weather comes along. those things seem to be coinciding in spring. a fair bet is by march we see
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sufficient progress in the virus movement that we can ease the restrictions in the economy. the bottom is probably february. we have a few weeks to wait yet. yousef: looking at the charts, thank you for that. kallum pickering is a senior economist at bern berg. the world economic forum is looking a little bit different this year. the agenda sees world leaders meet virtually to discuss a crucial year to rebuild trust. bloomberg brings you a piece of the action. you have francine lacqua moderating a panel with business executives including the barclays ceo and the governor of the bank of france. many other conversations throughout the morning and the afternoon. coming up on this show, ubs announces a share buyback of up to 4 billion swiss francs. and a big beat on net income. this is bloomberg. ♪
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yousef: let me take you back to the markets in china. we had a selloff after the central bank drained some liquidity. caught market participants by surprise. what added to the concerns were warnings from an official about asset bubbles. the stocks in china, the csi 300 down. the hang seng down. along with the pain being felt on stocks that have had a substantial rally, the bigger heavyweights, that stock down 5.5%. it adds to the signs beijing is growing weary of how cheap and plentiful liquidity has sewed access in markets. we start to get the big tech earnings, microsoft is out after the bell in the united states.
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in the u.k., the hsbc ceo is going to appear before the u.k. parliament foreign affairs committee, asking questions over the lender's move. plus bloomberg's year ahead event kicks off with the norwegian prime minister and the ceos of pfizer and carnival. look at the first word news again. >> the u.k. is set to decide on a plan to use hotels to quarantine visitors and stop the spread of coronavirus, the death toll likely to pass 100,000 this week. with hospital still feeling the strain, across the channel, france is a new lockdown will hit the economic recovery. >> if there is a lockdown, of course it will have impacts on the forecast. it would be very difficult to reach 6% more.
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>> janet yellen has been confirmed as treasury secretary of the united states. she will oversee the economy charting a course out of the pandemic. she was also the first woman to lead the federal reserve and becomes only the second person to hold both jobs. joe biden says he is ready to negotiate on stimulus, calling for a bipartisan deal. the white house is open to reshaping its plan, but the president says time is of the essence for a new aid package. republicans have rejected the price tag as too high too soon after last month's $900 billion bill. barcelona has kept its spot as europe's largest earning football club. the team ended its first season in a decade without a trophy and it's our revenue dropped by more than 100 million euro. second on the leaderboard were real madrid. the highest earning english team
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is manchester united. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. yousef: let's get back to ubs. they are boosting shareholder returns over the next three years. the results are a boost to the ceo, who started the bank -- whose start at the bank has been overshadowed by a probe into money laundering and his former employer. manus -- big highlights from the bank and asset management as well. manus: you are looking at a very rough -- into the 20's. the investment bank more than doubled the estimates at over 520 $9 million. management doing pretty well.
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the message on the new ceo is a buyback building on the work he was inheriting. covid is going to be a highly uncertain issue. when it comes to the provisions, the story is one of -- quite unbelievable. the market penciled in 160 million. part of that came from one item, but i want to compare that to the other top tier banks in europe. they made provisions of $61 billion. equity trading did very nicely as well. the equity side of the business outperformed trading income. the top five u.s. banks saw their trading income rise by 10%. yousef: where does that leave
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the priorities of the new ceo? he did talk about looks ability. run us through the priorities. manus: there is an ongoing tliv discussion about the language. flexibility, what does that mean? is that a slight inflection toward -- a huge strategy review, or do you go proverbially around the edges? he is only 100 days into his 10 year. -- his tenure. don't forget, there is a money laundering scandal hanging over him from ing. that is something which presumably will take up quite a bit of his time. if it is not broken, don't fix it. roaring markets, rising equities, clients engaged. almost like a holy trinity for
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the biggest wealth manager in the world. yousef: it has been a lonely journey here, having to do three hours without you. thanks for that. manus cranny. ubs is kicking off european bank earnings. more results coming up this week from the likes of bbva. we are going to be speaking to a lot of the voices from across a very interesting space as global markets digest and prepare for a more exhilarated reflation trade. speaking of that, u.s. futures and euro stoxx futures a little bit lower as they continue to speculate as to when the world might see that u.s. fiscal relief package. policymakers indicating it is unlikely to happen before mid march. u.s. tens overnight and the fx
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chinese financial markets as officials warn about bubbles. italy's prime minister will resign today in an effort to form his third government. ubs has announced a share buyback of up to 4 billion francs. 4.5 billion dollars, a big beat on net income and wealth management. here is a snippet of our interview with ceo ralph hamers. >> our business model has been successful getting through this pandemic. it gives us the confidence we can announce the share buyback program for the next three years, of which we will perform more than one billion in the first quarter of this year. 2020 has been specifically -- the fourth quarter has been quite good in terms of professions.
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