tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg January 27, 2021 4:00am-5:00am EST
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the rollout of the vaccine. good morning, everyone. welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i am francine lacqua here in london. the market is definitely focused on what jay powell will stay in terms of future bond buying. the markets are very focused on what is happening with reddit and gamestop. one of my favorite stories of 2021, the focus, though, is stocks. a lot of focus on tech and of course the conclusion of the federal reserve policies, moving treasuries into a lot of the emerging markets. now, we have a great guest lineup for you. we will have a discussion with a dutch central banker, focusing on europe and what you see the will do, and later on in the hour, we will speak with vivian hunt from mckenzie. now let's get to the bloomberg first word news. here is leigh-ann gerrans. hi, leigh-ann. leigh-ann: good morning, francine. the eu is trying to fix a
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standoff over vaccine delays. did the company meet its commitment? astra is pushing back,, saying its agreement did not specify the number of doses. getting at the same time as the u.k. despite ordering at three months later. the u.k. is now the first country in europe with over 100,000 deaths. fatalities are already five times a level that the u.k.'s chief scientific advisor said would be a good outcome for britain, almost 3.7 million people in the u.k. have tested positive. fed chair jerome powell is expected to maintain the central bank's aggressive support of the u.s. economy. that is after having seen what he calls the light at the end of the tunnel from the coronavirus pandemic. fed policymakers are almost all but certain when they wrap up their two day meeting later
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today. former president donald trump looks to be headed for acquittal in his second impeachment trial. republican senator rand paul tried to declare their proceedings unconstitutional and was blocked by a 55-45 vote. it is well short of the two- thirds majority needed to convict. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg @quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: leigh-ann, thank you so much. now, this sky word margin gamestop continues to accelerate. it rallied in another 40% in after-hours trading. the battle of day traders versus hedge funds. joining us to discuss is bloomberg's dani burger. first off, how much of a headache is this causing hedge funds?
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dani: it is interesting, as this battle is emerging, yes, it is causing a really big headache for these hedge fund managers, specifically melvin capital, an easy one to see where the pain is. hey, they doubled down on their gamestop that. they got a cash injection from steve cohen's hedge fund, saying hey, this is us going against the establishment, more or less. gamestop shares are up more than 70% already premarket today, and we have seen other hedge fund favorites to short have also moved higher as well. some in europe, too. one of the biggest short positions that melvin capital has in europe. so the most popular shorts over the past few days have rallied 15%, and because it is getting more expensive now for those people to short them because of
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the collateral they will have to post with the higher prices of these hedge funds, we have also seen them start to suffer the idea, being that perhaps they are taking profit on some of their long positions to fund the wildness going on with this short. francine: to put into context, the rally of gamestop now exceeds 5500 members, pretty out there. what are these traders doing on reddit? francine: -- dani: it is a complete gray area , and there's a lot of debate right now. could it be a pump and dump sort of thing that the sec pursues? one of the case studies, for example, is there an intent to create artificial prizes through supply and demands that are not legitimate?
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who is to say supply and demand? no one here is pretending that gamestop has more fundamental value than it does, they are just enjoying buying it. they are being very transparent what they are doing, so there is no sense of core fraud here. still, the sec could look at this and say there is some sort of market manipulation going on here, and you have to remember that a lot of these hedge fund who currently are against these reddit traders in terms of positionings are ones like steve cohen, who has a very rich history of dealing with the sec. so you would have to imagine they are hearing from a lot of people. michael burry of well-known hedge fund renowned is tweeting that the sec needs to look at it. there should be regulatory and legal repercussions, this is unnatural, but it is notable, but he was also pro gamestop long back in 2019.
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a lot of people are concerned about what is going on. francine: dani, thank you very much. we will have more on gamestop throughout the day and i am sure throughout the week. coming up, the world economic forum is a little different this year, as davos leaders meet virtually. do not miss exclusive interviews. that is coming up shortly. later in the day, we also speak with the digital antitrust chief. this is bloomberg. ♪ so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business.
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gathering of the world economic forum. it is starting to follow the pattern, the upshot of the international monetary fund forecast yesterday. they did downgrade the european growth outlook for 2021, underscoring a generally powerful performance with china and the u.s. joining us is the governor of the dutch central bank. thank you so much for joining us. i know 2020 was a year that was interesting for the banks and of course the world. what kind of impact do you think euro strength could have on inflation, and how could to change, if needed? klaas: well, it is something that we monitor very much, and
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it is one of the factors that we take into account when arising where assessment or inflation is going to go, and if the factor became too dominant in terms of threatening to derail inflation, then of course we would have the tools available to counter that. francine: can you, governor, give me an idea of how they should look at the ecb financial index? what should we be telling them? klaas: well, we end the december meeting from asset purchases to a more mixed approach. prices in the sense of financing conditions, play an important role, and of course that all starts with the realization that, in the euro area, interest rates are lower than anywhere else in the world, if you look at short rates, 50 interest
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rates lower, 100 basis points lower than in the u.s., which is also a return premium, 50 basis points, and the return premium is of course the objective so that was the starting point with which we decided that preserving is very favorable for a financing condition, would probably be the best contributions we could make towards meeting our inflation objective. interest rates, obviously credit conditions in the euro area play a very important role. 85% of all financial mediation in the area is bank mediation, so the credit channel is of huge importance. we have many interest rates, we have many different yield curves. that is why we always say it is a holistic concept.
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it is not one single indicator. but of course that concept is going to move over time, so we have to come to an assessment. one of my colleagues likened this to bad cholesterol versus good cholesterol. we have to come to a condition whether the reason for financing to move is actually benign or not. if it is due to a resumption of market stress conditions, likely seen in march last year, then clearly we want to counter that development. if it is due to improved growth prospects, better inflation expectation, that of course we need to have a discussion in the council, to what extent we want to push back against these developments. there could be a legitimate reason still the put-back -- pushback, because that would allow us additional monetary accommodation at a time in which inflation has not yet converged toward our objective. francine: that is pretty clear.
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can i go back to the fact that you have the tools to do something about depreciation? what would be your preferred tool? klaas: well, obviously that would have to be a tool that we have in our toolbox, but the dfr would be one, too. i always quipped that we explore but we have not found it yet, so there is room, but of course that would have to be seen in conjunction to our overall monetary stance, which is determined by multiplicity of tools, asset purchases, forward guidance, they all come into play here. francine: do you worry that, at some point, this will damage the economy at the margins because of euro strength? klaas: well, again, if euro strengths were to become a problem in terms of derailing our inflation objective, then of
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course it would take more prominence in our discussion. if you look at trade, the euro area is still an area with a current surplus, not a deficit, so in that sense, that is a less permanent issue than the impact that an appreciating euro might have on our inflation outlook. francine: governor, talk to me about when you actually think that the ecb should at least start thinking about normalizing interest rates. i know you don't exactly know what kind of further lockdowns we will see in a double-dip recession, but what is your thinking in terms of the timeline on that? klaas: well, it is clearly too early to talk about an exit of interest rate policy. my assessment of the economy at this moment is one of cautious optimism. the cautious part predominantly relates to what i think will dominate still the first half of the year, which is the second
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wave, the renewed intensification of the lockdowns, the possible virus mutations that we are currently concerned about, etc. but then after the summer, i would say, there should be room for optimism, optimism because the vaccines and the rollout of the vaccines should actually provide us with a durable perspective of being able to lift our economies out of these containment restrictions again. we have seen, and the third quarter of last year, that the recovery in that situation can then be very strong. actually, last year, it was very stronger than the most optimistic members of the governing council had hoped for, so there is optimism. but then of course we will be stuck with the legacy of the corona pandemic, which means that output will be low, the potential for some time to come, and that of course softens inflationary pressures for a while. and it has to be seen how that
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will play out, before we can start talking about normalizing interest rates. francine: how much -- if you look at lockdowns, how quickly will will be out of lockdowns? i know there's a lot of controversy about the european vaccine efforts. how difficult is it to say, come the summer, we will be a lot less locked down? how difficult will it be to have a projection on the european economy? klaas: well, it is actually very difficult, because i think it critically depends on the vaccine rollout. i am not in epidemiologist, so i cannot make any better informed judgments on that than what i've read in the papers. i observed that there are some complications in terms of the vaccine rollout. i am hopeful that when some pressures will mount into society, that there can still be an acceleration, because i do believe that if the only durable
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perspective of coming out of this pandemic does depend on the vaccines. without the vaccines, we would run the risk of having a sort of stop growth pattern with respect to infections going down, lifting resections, infections going up again, etc., as we have seen last year. so everything critically depends on the vaccine rollout, and on that perspective, you needed other experts than me on the program. francine: governor, you are a specialist on the crossroads between lockdowns on the economy -- and the economy. the longer the lockdown, is there damage that takes hold, or does it simply delay the recovery? klaas: well, that also remains to be seen. i observed with sort of some -- how do you say -- some positive feelings that at least the economy seems to adapt, so the economic impact of a second
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lockdown seems to be less severe than the first wave, so it shows that our economy has a certain agility, that digitalization -- we have all undergone a crash course digitalization in europe, for instance, in sales, the industrial sector is not that affected that much by a second rate, the service sector was, but the service sector can recover quite quickly, not a very capital-intense sector. there will be some scary -- the wave of bankruptcies that we will see, the npl's that will go up. i do not think the risk of amplification at this moment is really a pressing risk, but it is also something that we need to monitor. there will be some scaring, but i am hopeful that this will not be too big a problem going forward, and that at some point
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we can reach full capacity again and draw other people into the labor market again that have lost their jobs or that are about to lose their jobs in the coronavirus. francine: governor, given what you just laid out, why do the markets actually see a little chance of a -- klaas: markets, of course, look at the inflation outlook, and markets know that we have an objective of below or close to 2%, and there are very few market participants that actually predict us meeting that target and, let's say, the next two years or so, which is the horizon that most market were dispensed focus on, which is not necessarily the medium torn that we -- medium-term that we focus on. i want to insist on that point. but since inflation, and most projections, still does not reach our objective, obviously markets are not focused on any rate hike, because they understand our forward guidance, in that sense,
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which is also clear about the fact that there will not be rate hikes until we have sustainable convergence toward our inflation objective. francine: governor, very quickly, do you worry about bubbles in financial markets? klaas: i do worry about the side effects of monetary policy come about as long as we are in a crisis, there is clearly very little trade-off to be made. we always have to assess proportionality of our interventions, and once we move out of the emergency, the proportionality assessment will become a different assessment than what it was in the emergency. and then the side effects, including the financial bubbles, will clearly have to be taken into account. francine: governor, thank you so much for your time today, we really appreciate it. klaas knot there, the dutch central bank president. coming up, we will speak with the airbus chief executive. a lot of questions about travel
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things like bitcoin and spac's, gamestop, other companies, those are asset bubbles much like 2000, and they can end badly, but they do not affect the actual economy, they do not affect the actual banking system and the security that we are talking about here. francine: that was mary erdoes from jp morgan, and we spoke about strengthening the financial system of the bubbles. coming up, growth, inequality, and diversity. how to build back better with vivian hunt. that is coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ mberg. ♪
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francine: economics, politics. here is leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: pfizer will be able to deliver vaccine doses faster than expected. now 200 million by the end of may. that's ahead of an earlier deadline of june. it is due to a change of the vexing label that allows health-care providers to extract an additional dose from each file. the european central bank is settling its differences in policy with federal reserve. bloomberg sources telus policymakers are worried euro strength is depressing inflation , already below zero. if you force the central bank to provide a stimulus. former president donald trump looks to be headed to acquittal in the second of people and pile -- a proxy for the eventual verdict and is well short of the
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two thirds majority needed to convict. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine: for the world to make progress on green growth and equality and diversity, these are some of the the questions in our discussion at the virtual world economic forum. after the current crisis, can we return stronger than before. joining us is vivian hunt. you have done a lot of work and trying to spearhead some of the changes that a lot of the company's. thank you for joining us. the concern is that we keep saying we are building better, greener, more equal, that the legacy of the pandemic is also fewer women have gone back to work. it means a lot of the burden is on females. how much inequality is the pandemic going to the iesco
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vivian -- going to create in the first place? vivian: good morning, francine. i will not make any apologies or dilution for the fact that they can find effect -- the combined effect of the pandemic, the economic crisis, and the disproportionate impact -- on women and work, the higher numbers of their jobs being affected, as well as choosing to either press pause or leave the workforce because of domestic and other care responsibilities or just stress and pressure of managing so many different things. i think men have felt that just as much. when you look at the edelman survey, published just before davos, that illustrates how business leaders are among the most trusted people for colleagues and employees, your manager and your company are often more trusted than journalists and politicians, it reminds us that we not only have committed to but also need to keep those commitments, to have
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a more inclusive recovery from this crisis, in more green and sustainable recovery, and frankly more that -- one that pays attention to the needs of the people who are living and working in the economy. your example of the impact on women, communities of color, could be two examples, but could also -- but it could also be a reskilling of the impact in technology. we need businesses not just to make the commitment, that so many in business are espousing. we need concrete progress. francine: how do you measure that progress? we worry about -- i'm sure you worry about davos participants, that this is all happy talk. if you cannot measure it, we could turn around in two years and realize that instead of going forward we have even gone backward. vivian: i am encourage that the clients that we are talking to that they are all
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talking about action. the business roundtable, they have been out for some time, and indeed a good number of companies, well over a third, have already led some kind of esg outcomes in their company goals prior to 2020. so the seeds are already there, but the economic force and momentum last year. how do you make it concrete? we are very sure that efforts like the initiative to develop metrics and accountability tools , to measure esg, and to sign up for a simple body of metrics -- i think there are 21 or so metrics to serve as leading indicators on environment, social impact, and governance. i believe 60 companies had
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signed up to that even as we speak during davos, and i think it is those kinds of concrete actions that will make the difference. first is committed to a strategy and making it concrete. secondly is measuring it so you know how and where you are making progress on es and g. third is communicating in a transparent way. none of us are going to make progress on everything at one time, but if we don't have the initiatives or the metrics we will not make progress. francine: do you think that companies go out and seek equality to try to make it better? vivian: none of us are seeing an -- are seeking an uneven outcome. when you look historically at unrepresented -- underrepresented groups, access to education, uneven care responsibilities in the home, uneven access to capital, those are all elements that contribute
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to a different starting point. and so i think what companies are realizing is that equity of outcomes is what we are solving for, equity of contributions back to, for example, climate change or to an historically underrepresented group, and that businesses have to do more to make sure they have a truly level playing field. that came home so clearly during the simultaneous crises of 2020, and frankly that is continuing through 2021. francine: thank you so much for joining us. vivian hunt from mckinsey. -- pushing the agenda to climate -- to combat climate change -- alix steel joins us.
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and guy johnson from london. >> pushes back in the global fight against climate change. that is very good news. it is great news that on the first day in office, the president signed an executive order to rejoin the paris agreement. that sent the right signal to the world. of course the commitment to net zero by 2050 -- we are going to -- if you look at our approach to climate, it is now very much aligned as well. of course, the world would also look to see what the u.s. does in terms of its mission targets and also in terms of finance, which is a big issue particularly for vulnerable countries, getting public finance, but also private finance, flowing to supporting action. there is $100 billion a year, the commitment made to developed
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countries to force climate action in developing countries, and it is a massive trust and one of the things i have been saying and will continue to say is that this is something we have to deliver on collectively. alex: i'm glad you brought up the funny thing that is where the pandemic made it harder. here in the u.s. the energy is going to be spent on a relief bill, and there are a lot of question marks about how much president biden will be able to get for any kind of climate land . forget about emerging markets trying to deal with the virus itself. how do we manage this? >> one is if you look at the u.k., you talk about prime minister johnson, about the green industrial revolution that he has set on course. it is about putting public money, but also leveraging in many multiples in terms of private funding to get our economy is going, and it is about jobs. we are showing in the u.k. that green growth is possible. over the last 30 years we have
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grown our economy 75% and cut emissions by 43%. supporting developing countries, that is vitally important. one of the messages that i get when i talked to countries which are vulnerable, countries at the front line of climate change but are not actually responsible for the position we are in right now. what they say to me is that they completely understand that developed countries have managed to raise significant funds to support their own economies, but then they contrast that that we have not let yost -- lost to the hundred billion dollars. and that is where we have to make sure that at this in time we are supporting our economies, jobs in our countries, but that we support vulnerable countries as well. francine: we are just getting some images from belgium about the pfizer vaccine. this is of course on the back of
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a huge controversy that has also engulfed astrazeneca, or mostly engulfed astrazeneca in terms of how many doses of vaccine have been delivered to europe. i think this is one of the centers in belgium taking stock. one of the big concerns about this vaccination rollout is the code chain. astrazeneca pushed back yesterday against the european union on these vaccinations reacting to threats to its business, and saying they take responsibility for the delays to the rollout. 20 more on astrazeneca and the vaccination. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london. the eua is trying to resolve a standoff with astrazeneca over vaccine delays. officials are calling on national governments and the commission to demand the company meet its commitments. astrazeneca is pushing back, saying the agreement did not specify the number of doses because the e.u. insisted on getting the vaccine about the same time as the u.k. despite ordering it three months later. joining us from brussels is korea taddeo. we will also look at the virology and vaccination behind it. if you look at the astrazeneca -- is maria tadeo. we will also look at the virology and vaccination behind it. if you look at astrazeneca's vaccine, basically some of the vaccines that are done or being made in europe are not sufficient to what they promised. maria: that is the story, and you are right. the company is pushing back very
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hard this morning. that is a full-page interview with the ceo today. all of the european newspapers this morning. you can see the headline, "we never diverted any vaccines away from the european union." one of the concerns that had been floated over the past few days that the money was going to vaccines being shipped somewhere else. he denies that and says there is no truth in that. he also pointed out that the united kingdom signed contract three months prior. he also says astrazeneca is ready to deliver 3 million doses as soon as the agency approves the vaccine. we expect that to happen on friday. there is an of the crucial line going back to the contract in which he says in the contract that we signed, we agreed to make our best effort. that line will be key because a lot of the issues here and the controversy is what is in the contract. the european union is saying
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they aimed for a number of vaccines to be shift. they say that they promised and compromised and said that they would deliver their best effort, and that is what the company is doing. a lot of them will hedge around the language of the vaccine, and we know there is a very important call between the european institutions and astrazeneca today that may resolve or escalate the fight even further. francine: maria tadeo in brussels looking at the politics for this. joining us now is sam fazeli, who leads pharmaceutical coverage. the first person i call is usually sam fazeli and i usually say sam, i don't -- explain this. i started off by asking you yields. when you look at how vaccines are made -- and this is what the astrazeneca chief executive is trying to explain, they have various reduction centers but not everyone or not every production facility actually makes the same amount of vaccine
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, because it is a delicate situation. is that right? sam: good morning, francine. yes, it is a complex and delicate situation. we are in, for want of a better phrase, the first -- the european union has vaccinated 9 million people so far across 27 nations. they are rapidly deploying the doses, and that is because of a logistical issue and how complex it is. the same issue applies to the companies. the countries, not the companies, have done this before -- the population with the -- francine: how will this get resolved? first of all, how many more shots can they get to the right people, and it is true that
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astrazeneca is not making money out of these vaccines, right? sam: correct. that is what they have committed to do. you look at the price and perhaps you do -- working hard on the price or whatever it is that they are doing, i don't know, across-the-board the only contract they ever signed faster than other countries was the one with moderna. otherwise there is a two to three months delta between them. and a lot of it is probably to do with the complexity of getting the supply chain in place to get these doses up and to get some units -- maybe some units in other countries have a tougher time doing that. francine: you also have a great model. through your research, you look at every country, the amount of vaccination doses that they have done the last seven days, how
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long it will take for them to reach herd immunity. how quickly can these numbers change because we are going to get new vaccines, because we are going to get new doses being delivered? sam: it all depends on how quickly the country -- the countries start vaccinating. it leverages the data that cummings have been putting on the terminal, which is the number of vaccinations. daily, some countries are only updated every day or every two or three days, so we look at how fast they are vaccinating their populations and use the same rates of change and apply forward come and you see that your community is supremely behind -- certainly israel but also the u.s. and the u.k. -- and what they need to do is wrap up the number of vaccinations and i am convinced they will do it, but they hopefully will updated as we see any changes in that rate. you will probably start seeing
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francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london. leigh-ann: gamestop's rally accelerated yesterday, nearly doubling during trading hours. and surging even more after a tweet from elon musk. the firm is now worth over $10 billion, up about 700% year to date. it is being driven by reddit's wall street best form. michael berry says it should
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have legal repercussions. walgreens has named starbucks the executive brewer -- she will be the only black woman leading an s&p 500 company full the rest are bolstering starbucks sales, she will be charged with turnaround the empire. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine: pfizer says nationalism is a lose game. the chief executive says it is too soon to suggest europe is behind distributions of the vaccine. he spoke to our editor-in-chief, don mickelthwait. >> bit -- john mickelthwait. >> that creates a lot of tension , the voices are getting louder, and sometimes they are on the table. i don't think it is a good idea even to insinuate a global supply type of network that exists right now, that someone
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can -- let's keep in mind that a lot of the raw materials are needed to produce the vaccine are coming from other countries. that will be a lose-lose situation rather than a situation that will help europe. what we are doing and doing cooperatively both with the european commission, with which we have excellent relations come it is to try to increase traumatically our -- right now we have announced that from 1.3 billion doses we will be able to -- we will be able to produce, likely produced last year, we announced right now that we have a solid plan for 2 billion doses this year. as a result, we have -- we will provide them 200 additional --
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200 million additional doses for europe. starting with them will be in the second -- that is a promise that we give them, and we are well in line to do the activity. so i understand the concerns, i understand that everybody wants something that could potentially help save lives, and commit a little bit of patience so that we will be able to do our job and provide as much product as available for everyone. guy: what are you doing to combat fears for taking the vaccine? albert: i think it is a job for everyone. it is a job for you as a journalist, as scientists. i would say that they have fears. i understand them.
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but they need to think that when it comes to vaccines, the decision to take it or not will not affect only their own lives. they will affect the lives of others, and likely or most likely it will affect the lives of people that they love the most, people that they socialize the most. if you don't take the vaccine, you are becoming the weak link that allows this virus to replicate. think before you make such a decision, and don't let fear get in the way. francine: that was the pfizer chief executive, speaking to john mickelthwait. bloomberg surveillance continues in the next hour. we look at markets, vaccines, we look at treasuries ahead of the fed. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: the u.k. becomes the first nation in europe 100,000 deaths from the coronavirus. global cases pass 100 million. and astrazeneca pushes back against the e.u. the drugmaker says the union must take responsibility for delays to the rollout of the vaccine. and gamestop won't stop. the reddit revolution leaves those crushed in its wake. it morning and happy wednesday. this is bloomberg surveillance. i'm francine lacqua in london, tom keene in new york. the focus is on the fed, and that could move some of the treasuries. i know you are focused, as i am, on gamestop. what it means for hedge funds, and on the bloomberg terminal today. we look forward to the next couple of days. tom: this is history in the making full to him and his gone from the same story, and a lot of things, an article for bloomberg opinion is absolutely brilliant. and in the last 20
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