>> we are seeing it come through. >> pockets of frothiness and some irrationality. >> we have a massive wealth balancing going on. >> we have a social revolution going on between the haves and the have-nots. >> retail investors could end up hurt. >> not every country -- company can be an apple or tesla. >> next year, when things look more normal, you are going to have the hammer come down on some of those companies. >> this is "bloomberg

surveillance." tom: good morning everyone. good morning on television and radio. simulcast where we simultaneously coverage gamestop anticrisis of a $1 billion requirement to dcc -- by robinhood with letters of credit. goldman sachs writing out every word to robinhood to keep the game going. there is other news. what is your attention this morning? jonathan: johnson & johnson, a one-shot vaccine that we are all waiting for. the results from the trial, it is 66 percentage -- 66% effective. it was found to be 72% effective in the u.s. johnson & johnson shot 85% affection -- efficacy overall

for preventing from severe disease across virus variants. the headline, 66% effective in the global clinical trial. tom: these percentages, i believe we will hear our normal percentages versus the stunning mrna percentages we saw from weiser and moderna -- pfizer and moderna. let's speak with sam facility -- with sam. am i right that these were it's from johnson & johnson are what we have known over the decades? sam: absolutely right. this is data we have all been waiting for because it is a single shot. my feeling is that people will be disappointed at the number. i think people were hoping for

around 80% and it seems to be short of that. of course, we do have a vaccine that reported last night from novavax that shows a 90% efficacy in the u.k. and a 60% efficacy in south africa. that is interesting to know. both vaccines are easy -- just refrigeration and easy logistics. lisa: you said people may be disappointed at the 66% number. we have been spoiled by the idea of 80%, maybe even 95% efficacy. can you give us a sense of what this means in terms of how close we can get to herd immunity? does this get us there, the idea that this is more easily transportable even though it is only 66% efficacious? or are we further away? sam: i think this is a vaccine

that will have meaningful utility. i keep reminding everybody that the levels of 50% to 60% -- we have been spoiled by the pfizer and moderna vaccine. this is a single shot vaccine so they do have a two shot vaccine coming but it does not seem like the data will come into the back and of the year. it would be a vaccine that would be useful given that it is -- that introduces the disease -- reduces the disease. tom: on the linear basis, when you look at the vaccinations in written and the u.s. and more -- in written and the u.s. -- in britain and the u.s., where

will we be by the end of february? sam: these variants are something we did not have to worry about and now we have to worry about. i am worried things will be worse than where we are today. tom: thank you so much. the announcement eagerly awaited on johnson & johnson. jim paulsen of leuthold weeden capital management as we lay out the path to february and the distractions of a short squeeze. i would suggest you have seen this before. what is different this time with robinhood versus the other short squeezes you and i have enjoyed? jim: [laughter] a couple of things to me. one, -- a couple of things hit me.

one is the power that technology can deliver to a small group of people. we are seeing that with facebook and twitter and people on those platforms and the influence they can have. now we are seeing it in the financial markets. i think that is interesting. the social movement aspect is unique. this is less a short squeeze than it is an angry crowd. more to the point, it seems like it is a destabilizing force more so than the past short squeezes where it seems like you can collude with the reddit platform and act in unison to target a specific security and move its price wherever you want to with a little bit of leverage. i think that is a destabilizing

force. to me, it sounds a lot like market manipulation and probably needs to be regulated. the last point i would say is that like the other ones, this will end badly and probably greed will eventually set in even among the young robinhood traders. they will start to take profits and that happens things will unravel like they have in the past. jonathan: we will let the lawyers deal with the legal issues. i want to get your opinion on if we are discussing this the right way. we are discussing it as an them versus them, institutions versus retail. don't you think it is naive to believe there are not institutional traders on the reddit words doing the same thing -- reddit boards doing the same thing? jim: i totally agree.

i believe it is probably happening more. i think this is market manipulation. i think it is a destabilizing force. think about the federal reserve. the federal reserve spent most of last year reestablishing functionality and liquidity in state -- and stabilization to the markets. that was a big part of what they did all year long. we are a lousy -- we are allowing something to destabilize the markets and set up harm for a number of investors big or small down the road. i think it is hypocritical to do what we did last year to try to stabilize the financial markets to save the economy and allow this to go on. i am still understanding a lot of this. lisa: to play devil's advocate, people would say the federal reserve stabilized the market

for the people in the market which includes the big players and wealthiest individuals. that seems to be the trip among -- the tone among these robinhood investors. what do you say to people who say wall street has lost oral high ground based -- moral high ground based on a shift in the fundamentals in the price action based on what policy has done? jim: i am not sure wall street has ever had the high moral ground. [laughter] you go back to any crisis we have had and if you don't reestablish functioning wall street and functional ability, it is -- function ability, it is disasters. if you don't reestablish a functioning wall street, it will be disastrous for the economy which will be disastrous for everyone.

when you say "wall street" you say -- save wall street, you save the economy. one interesting thing which is wonderful for the future is that we are enticing younger investors at a younger age rather than waiting to 40 or 52 invest. -- 450 to invest -- or 50 to invest. i think that is huge. i think we will have more dissipation -- more participation. jonathan: it is great to catch up. thank you, sir. there is an argument that this

could aid discovery on the short side and forced people to do more homework to put the trade on. tom: i agree. what you are seeing here today, and this is one of the ways we built this show, you are seeing three different opinions much like we have these different opinions in wall street and society. lisa: i was representing a devil advocate you. i don't know -- you. -- a devil's advocate view. some people are really questioning what policy has done and shooting price discovery and price action we have seen this year. tom: i am in the camp where it is less a social event, granted it is, and this is much more an all-american short squeeze based off of greed. jonathan: i am in the camp that it is their money.

if they want to lose it, let them. tom: i can give you a lineup of tom keene losers. jonathan: i know you can. lisa: [laughter] tom: i am not on reddit talking it up. jonathan: coming up, tom gorman. looking forward to that. this is bloomberg -- "burke surveillance." -- "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: the stage is set for another day in the markets. gamestop rallied after robinhood said it would lift trading restrictions on some of the stocks. they did it to limit the risk to itself and from an outcry from customers and politicians. the brokers raised a billion dollars from investors after the

central clearing have demanded more collateral. president biden is working the phones trying to round up republican votes for his $1.9 trillion stimulus plan. he spoke to susan collins this week. republicans -- would enable it to move more quickly through congress. chevron with a fourth-quarter loss, they are refining business and the company incurred charges from its takeover by noble energy. we spoke to chevron's cfo. >> market conditions continue to be challenged in the downstream. we are not operating back at a full recovery. we operate safely and reliably. demand is down a little bit. we had a couple of one-time items that contributed to loss in the fourth. -- fourth-quarter. ritika: global news 24 hours a

day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business.

>> we were not directed by a market maker or by a market participant.

this was a technical and operational decision we made. >> i would acquitted to folks -- equate to folks voting with dollars to get back at big finance. what we have seen today is pretty shocking. robinhood shutting down the ability to buy stocks. this feels like the very thing these people are railing against. jonathan: the reddit co-founder and robinhood co-founder joining bloomberg in the last 24 hours. good morning. here are your markets this morning. we pulled back up on my desk or by 8 -- johnson & johnson coming out with their late stage finical trial results. the headline number is 66% of moderate to severe cases prevented by the sexy. -- by the vaccine.

it is effective at stopping severe disease. 100% of hospitalizations and deaths. the headline number may not be in line with other clinical trials in the past month, but the number of severity of deaths and hospitalizations is helpful because it is a one-shot regime. tom: make note of the 10 year yield, -31 on negative spx. we will kill three birds with one stone and talk with bloomberg intelligence -- damien at bloomberg intelligence about the tone we have seen this week with equity gyrations. we will talk about the experience with short squeezes. you are the best i know at betting on this odd game of football. lisa says it is tough to fit

against -- to bet against tom brady. what do you think? damien: i hope lisa did not share my news, but the fact is that it is hard to bet against tom. i like tampa. lisa: you should be happy i am not in the same room as you. tom: i know. [laughter] lisa: it has given me power today. tom: don't against rady and let's move on. damien, you have so much. it's, d bet against robinhood or will they get to this? damian: let me get you a sense of what i've talking about, yet risk off environments and when they pick up, specifically the vix, which the emerging markets start to peel off. that seems to benefit low yield.

the taiwan dollar has an extraordinary correlation. it is tough to bet against that. jonathan: given the amount of the grossing we have seen in the hedge fund world, are you surprised we have not seen this with other asset classes? damian: i think it is refreshing . the broker business in the u.s. is a closed market. it is a players market. i like the spotlight shining on them. i'm not saying anyone has done any wrong. these moves are bubbly. lisa: another thing that is probably, if we were not facing the gamestop story we would be talking about the fundamentals and that is the virus can canoeing to surge in vaccine not getting distributed in a lot of emerging markets. i'm wondering if you think that is being factored into pricing as consensus trade -- given that

the schedule has been pushed back. damian: that is a great point. i don't think markets are liquid enough for the day to day nuances of vaccine take-up. it is more about account balances, alex of payments, fiscal assets. -- fiscal deficits. currencies continue to stand out in my mind, particularly in a risk off environment. the white differential in china from the u.s. i still -- lisa: are you looking at the vaccination schedule or is that in other arts of the world to determine whether or not to invest in terms of recommending -- in terms of the fundamental picture? i'm trying to have -- try to hedge it every which way. in other words, how much you

actually look at the vaccination schedule of other countries. damian: you have to sort through what is real and what is not. a lot of the numbers we are seeing are of it by the governments and a lot of that is difficult to align. it is a tale of two stories. brazil spent so much money, tried so much in terms of vaccines -- so much fiscal stimulus but they have not been able to get vaccine deliveries. brazil is going to suffer. look at israel, they are way ahead game. it really is a country by country game. jonathan: final question, on china, is that still a strong bull case for a lot of people you speak with? damian: it is -- there is more consensus on where the dollar-won you want is headed than euro-dollar.

i think it's about how we get there, it is not about getting there at once. the real thing for me in china is we need to see a interpretation of the executive orders, the once that give companies all ownership in every company that is deemed -- related to the military in china. that is an area of concern for me. jona that is damien of berg intelligence -- of bloomberg intelligence. futures down 29 on the ascent -- on the s&p. tom: i'm going to call it stasis in gamestop. 343. it was 193, they started saying they would trade again, up we go to $400. we sit at $400 and then rolled over to the morning. there are not much technicals

here. acting an -- acting in a rational way -- it is acting more rational. lisa: can i weigh on something? it is unclear if the people on the reddit boards are people in their pajamas or actual financial advisors. one of the names on reddit that had been really popular has been unmasked as a 34-year-old financial advisor from massachusetts. the idea of the financial world playing on this reddit boards. jonathan: that is what i was getting at. we go back to luke cowher. we were talking about this phenomenon, talking about the idea of retail versus institutional and there no crossover it is ridiculous.

that is 90. from bloomberg -- that is naive. from bloomberg in new york. shout out to luke cowher. where did he go? this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: there is evidence we need a four day trading week. we could have a long weekend, talking about gamestop. futures -8/10 of 1% and nasdaq futures off. small caps on the week, ugly. down by a half of 1%. the both this is for 2021 has been -- the bull thesis for 2021 has been challenged. you think about the global economy of china, u.s., and europe, europe is really struggling. when can they reopen? what was the base case coming into 2021 and what is your base case now?

do you think the markets reflect that? yields briefly down of 1% on a u.s. 10 year earlier this week, a lift over the past couple of days. up five basis points on a 10 year, up six basis it's on the 30 year. that -- let's finish on this. i want to finish on gamestop and bitcoin. bitcoin up by about 13% on the session. the anti-institution trade, bitcoin is part of that. i wonder how many people are on either side of him stop. -- on either side of gamestop. but think more details about this story. you are on the institutional side, do you think they have only signed on to reddit after the price action went up? tom: someone tried to get me to sign up last night. i am out there with a triple

leverage cash account so it is working out great. michael mckee with the data. we say it is not important, personal income versus snow spending. he knows how to go beneath that data. what are we doing? michael m.: stopping our money away in the bank. the personal income numbers, up by 6/10 of a percent, a drop in november. the forecast was for just 1/10 percent gain in the month. spending falls by 210 after dropping 4/10 in november -- 2/10 after dropping 4/10 in november. we did hold onto our cash in december and stuck it in the bank. the personal savings rate goes up to your team went 7% -- 13% -- 13.7%. it also suggests that maybe that money is going into gamestop or

some random stock like that. -- the other numbers you want to know, the pce deflator, 1.3% on the year. the core of 3/10 which makes it a 1.5% gain on the year. a little bit of movement in inflation upward but not that bad. the employment clock index is 7/10 of 1%. wages and salaries for those three months up 9/10 percent. people did make more money, this may be skewed by the fact that the lower income people were out of work. it is hard to do a whole lot with the income and spending numbers other than break it all down in wages and salaries. we know people at the lower end are suffering. lisa: is there a tight here,

this idea -- a type here, the fact that further stimulus will go into the bank and not into the real economy? have we hit a limit with that based on the stasis in services in actually doing things in the economy? michael m.: people don't want to spend on services because they are afraid of the virus. people are holding back, but that will be the people who have jobs. this stimulus that has been passed so far goes to people who make up to $75,000 a year. the people who make above that, it starts to phase out up to $100,000. the people who have jobs are doing money in the bank, those who don't have jobs need money to pay rent. it gives strength to the argument that this should be more targeted. tom: the dtcc last night did

a $1 million cash call on a brokerage firm. this jay powell care about that? michael m.: it is not in their regulatory work but it is a sign. we were talking about whether it is a systemic problem. it is a sign something like this could morph into a systemic problem if it were bigger. if you are trading a stock that had a higher rise to begin with and the volume was as great as we are seeing with gamestop, you could have a reason for somebody to get involved at the regulatory level and they will be looking at that. tom: and on the second call if necessary. michael mckee, thank you very much. what a strong week for michael mckee. the international monetary fund, it was my honor to speak with kristalina georgieva a few days ago. she listens to vitor gaspar.

he is the director of fiscal affairs, always an addition and even more so during this pandemic. carmen reinhart wrote a paper this summer on the pandemic depression. how is your physical world given -- physical world given the attempt to get through -- fiscal world given the attempt to get through this pandemic? vitor: a pandemic is a health crisis. the chief economist of the imf has emphasized we face a tremendous amount of uncertainty. it is a race between a mutating virus and the vaccines. the virus got the head start. in the north atlantic area, the cases have very strong in this period of fall.

winter, it is crucial that the rollout of vaccines takes place very quickly. that is a global process. i would like to say that the virus is not defeated anywhere before it is defeated everywhere. ensuring a global access of vaccines at low cost is crucial to the pandemic. tom: dr. corey gave us -- tell us what you and your team have learned about the distribution of stimulus. are we providing fiscal stimulus to to many of the haves and not enough of the have-nots? vitor: there are important

aspects, one is divergence across countries in terms of economic process, in terms of supporting the economy. at one extreme you have a country like the u.s. that has ample fiscal space that can provide relief to the economy, that has been providing relief and more is in the pipeline. looking forward, the u.s. by 2022 will be very close to its pre-covid-19 growth path. in particular if something like the biden relief plan gets to the political process in congress. at the other extreme, we have low income countries that basically had to tackle the emergency of covid-19 by changing the composition of

public spending so that urgent needs in health could be tackled and support could be given. the financial envelope was constrained to the financial capacity of the countries. we have important aspects of inequality across people. you have divergences in terms of education, people that have more than a college degree have been less affected than people that lack it. this pandemic has affected women and young workers then much more -- much more than other segments. i worry about children from least favorite families -- favored families who are suffering given the restrictions imposed by social distancing. jonathan: i want to finish on one russian. do think debt to gdp ratios are

still useful? vitor: they are useful. they are an indicator we do look -- it is one of the many indicators one needs to follow in order to assess sustainability. it is important that fiscal policy is able to ask forcefully if cases needed. we have seen how forceful fiscal policy can be in covid-19. in order to have room to maneuver responsibility has been the case in 2020 in the face of over 19. -- covid-19. fiscal buffers will be have to -- fiscal the first will have to be reconstituted, the priority now is to spend on health care, support resources to health -- to help schools and colleges

reopen safely, helping the poor and most vulnerable families, help unemployment, and make sure there are no bottlenecks on crucial services that people need in these uncertain times. jonathan: great to catch up. thank you for spending your time on this program. futures recovering a little bit, up by a third of 1%. tom: they are recovering with an increase in yields. this is important. there is correlation this morning in the markets. that has not been set enough. jonathan: by five or six basis points in the long end, the 10 year up. coming up later, catching up -- looking forward to that conversation.

tom keene on balance of power later, very cool. tom: there are 435 representatives, 100 senators. jonathan: nice done -- nicely done. it is the warm-up. real yield at 1:00 p.m. eastern. lisa: nicely done. [laughter] jonathan: this is bloomberg. ritika: on capitol hill, two committees are promising to hold hearings on the gyrations in the stock market. lawmakers from both parties expressed outrage at robinhood limiting trade for companies like gamestop. sharon brown says people on wall street only care about the rules when they are the ones getting hurt. donald trump has agreed to help

republicans try to take the house next year. he met with kevin mccarthy. republicans need to win seven seats to begin the house. mccarthy has backed off his statement that trump for responsibility for the attack on the capitol hill. the citigroup trader who became the face of the -- scandal has been released from prison in the u.k. >> after a dramatic sentence in custody, my deal in the u.k. is almost over. ritika: it was the most high-profile conviction in the rating almost -- in the rating almost -- in the rigging almost a decade ago. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> they want to get in cars in america travel about 200 miles,

staying in small communities with friends and family. i think that will shift from mass travel to meaningful travel. i think it will be really eventful. tom: brian chesky, airbnb ceo with comments this morning. i want to point out this data has in the last two hours, -45 on futures has become negative eight. the vix comes in with a vengeance. it was out for big figures, and we are now only one what 53 points -- only 1.53 points. gamestop with a leap in the last 30 minutes, 364 -$364 -- $364. right now, none of the vaccine but the mystery of what to do

with the vaccine and vaccinations. i am absolutely stunned and i went through it myself of what a manufacturing process is. you are an expert of the vaccine at the state level. why did the dakotas succeed and others have struggled? >> there are a lot of different reasons why you see certain states at the head of the list. it is not predictable based on any common theme. size, political attributes, etc. there are a couple of things that lead to early success for some states. i think we will see a lot of moving around moving along. some states were faster out of the gate. in west virginia, they chose to

do their own thing with long-term care pharmacies and facilities that most states partners with cvs and walgreens. those pharmacies were responsible for getting vaccines into the arms at residents and staff in long-term care for southeast -- long care -- long-term care facilities. there's not a lot of staff at those pharmacies now. they said we are going to take control of -- control of that and partner with community partners and get it done. tom: that is the smartest thing i have heard today. mariana martha cotto was on earlier and she said exactly the same thing. there is a point where government has to step in. is that what is needed in february, more government action? hemi: there were some states

were cvs and al green's had a rate print and they were effective of getting people vaccinated. -- and walgreens had a great footprint and they were effective of getting people vaccinated. you have to look at how a state operates, what staffing look like and how people are willing to get the vaccine. federal government stepping in, i think you need some national leadership and i think states will want national leadership. funding will be helpful. thinking about a quarter knitted plan. but also recognizing -- i know the biden-harris administration is intuitive, looking at what each state needs. in one state you will need some national guard, some federal sites to be setup in rural areas. other states have enough vaccinators and they need other kinds of support.

it is important to look at how we operate and what it needs. lisa: you are talking about financing this effort and that is one bipartisan agreement in washington, d.c., that financing will be very good for the nation. can you give us a sense to get a greater sheesh and of the complication of the rollout where the money is most heavily needed in order to facilitate this? hemi: a number of states in order to speed up the process have started setting up mass vaccinations rights which require partnerships. that is one area i think resources will be needed. we can't forget about populations that are harder to reach and in places like rural areas where mobile sites or community sites which will be smaller but will need to be setup also will be needed. this is a complicated effort at the federal, state, local level

and the local level really matters. making sure states have funding to partner with local community groups, etc. is important because we have to get people to not only trust the vaccine but also the process to get access to it. lisa: i would love to wrap up with the news which is that johnson & johnson came out with data for the single dose of vaccine. it was not as stunning as the other vaccinations, still very positive. how much does this accelerate the timeline or pop vaccinating -- for vaccinating? hemi: i think we are hopeful there will be more options for vaccines. we have to get 300 million people vaccinated. we don't have this apply for that so we need new candidates to come in the door. i think there are concerns in the public about the strains in the u.k. and africa -- south

africa. i think we have seen evidence that for the south african strain, these vaccines are not as effective. we still need more options for people to get vaccinated. tom: thank you so much. the state issue here going forward will be extraordinary. i think we have to wrap up. lisa, your thoughts on gamestop in the next hour? lisa: i'm interested in the trade instead of the larger debate and how much longer in his shorts is we are. how much more contagion could there be? there is this question of the allowance of people to trade on their own vision in accounts -- on their own volition in accounts that are unregulated. people are saying more regulation is needed, i am unclear what that regulation is and how the debate evolves.

tom: from 500 down to 100, have come back up off the 193 close yesterday. we are doing it better. what we are really doing is reassessing a $1 billion cash call by the dtcc and the letters of credit from banks in the last 24 hours. do we get to the weekend without any action or are we going to get to the weekend more action? lisa: there is always action, i am sure it will be an eventful day. alex webb brought up an interesting point, this idea of anonymity on these sites and state actors for other people acting in untoward manners. that is the nature of markets, you don't know who is on the others of the trade. another aspect of the debate that i'm sure will be raging. tom: you see it on reddit as

well. coming up on "balance of power." ," emily wilkins will help me try to do politics. the congresswoman from pennsylvania. this is bloomberg, stay with us. ♪

♪ jonathan: from new york city,

for our audience worldwide, good morning. the countdown to the opening bow starts now, equity futures up 4/10 of 1%. the big issues, markets closing out a wild week with one name dominating the headlines. >> gamestop. >> gamestop. >> gamestop. >> amc, blackberry, and the like. >> are there systemic risks? >> none of this is questionable in my mind. they've got free commission and the internet is a powerful research tool. >> there is a market for shortselling and for buying. >> the fact that retail investors have used a blog to communicate so that they could kill a ridiculous short position, they are the ones who had it right. >> the market no regulator expected. >> marke