pain and stress is the only thing you have to lose. get it and get it now. your body will thank you. (announcer) find out more at aerotrainer.com. that's aerotrainer.com. manus: good morning from bloomberg's middle east headquarters in dubai. i am manus cranny. annmarie hordern alongside me in london. it's "daybreak europe." the market frenzy spills into commodities. astrazeneca boosts vaccine deliveries to the e.u. as they try to get the rollout on track.

the u.s. president, joe biden, will meet the gop senators proposing a sick hundred billion dollars stimulus plan. third-quarter loss for ryanair, the numbers are crossing the bloomberg terminal of re-hundred 6 million euros. last-minute loss was 274 million. there is the imagery of joe biden. you will meet the gop senators later today. he's bringing 10 of the senators to the white house this morning -- later on today. they proposed 600 million. there is the line we wanted. good morning. 306 million. 274 is what they penciled in. and the traffic, this is a reflection of the reality of lockdown, close down, quarantine. 8 million passengers. good morning. annmarie: the traffic, those

travel bans over the christmas holiday, the new year's holiday, severely impacting their business. what's interesting is michael o'leary, who we will speak to later on in the program, he said in november that he was hoping for a ramp-up by easter. is that even possible right now given the state of vaccine rollouts across the u.k. and europe? manus: a little bit more detail coming through. we will speak to michael himself shortly but this is about the guidance for the full year and net loss of 850, 950 million euros. to contextualize the drop in the traffic, down 83% year on year. we will talk about capacity, what is happening, and i'm sure he will have a response for what the british government are doing at the moment. michael joins us later in the show. 6:30 a.m. london time. it depends which story you read and which side one sits on when

it comes to gamestop. what are the risks? barclays and jp morgan are tethered to the house. they say there is little possibility of contagion. short sales are too small to sway the market. jp morgan says the pullback will likely be short-lived. another number. melvin capital lost 53% of its value in january. that is a punch out. annmarie: on the others of that, we just spoke about best earlier this morning. -- this earlier this morning. what happens next depends on who out of the hedge funds, retail investors, all the intermediaries, surrender first, and that the contagion depends on the strength of buy the dip conditioning. mark cudmore says it frankly. those who think recent volatility is a micro distraction are set for a rude awakening and we see it this morning in other markets.

a rude awakening in the silver market. manus: be careful because in the silver market -- i am watching wall street bets on a minute by minute basis and they are saying that this propagation in twitter, that wall street bets are going after silver. it's the antithesis of who they are. the silver market -- i have to get my notes. last year, it traded in the billions so gamestop traded 50 million. you are looking at billions and silver and the market is net long. there is the point. silver. the institution is already net long. morgan stanley, ubs, and a whole host of other institutions, they are already long. annmarie: there will not be a short squeeze in the sense that you would see in game shops and the 50 million in game shops, $48 million worth of silver

physically only in london. let's take a look at where silver does trade. we did go about $29. we are below that right now. up 5.5 percent. the physical silver market is getting very tight. u.s. equities moving to the upside, reversing an earlier decline. not so good news out of china, pmi numbers. the fact that joe biden will meet with the gop later today is helping equities this morning. in asia, up. at the moment, shrugging off something else and that is what is happening with the geopolitical situation in myanmar. to the top driver, gamestop ended last week with the 400% rally as the brokerage clamped down on trade that burned short-sellers and hedge funds but at the same time, institutions have been dropping up and historic rally in heavily shorted names targeted by reddit users. dani burger, it is not exactly

when you dig into the numbers and get more nuance into this story, it is not so black and white sticking it to the man, is it? dani: i know it makes for a neat little narrative of main street versus wall street, but that is not exactly what is going on. on one hand, you surely have momentum traders, institutions buying gamestop, profiting off this rally. on the other side of things, we also have the market makers who are coming out extremely well during this. part of how they make their money is the spread on these various stocks. if you look at what came stock traded at, they traded that .5%, which is much higher than what we usually see and have the same time, you have this huge amount of volume traded and that's exactly where they make money. total trading revenue would be nearly $.5 billion last week just for gamestop cash trading

alone and that's just a small proportion of what they would have made because most of the trading has happened in derivatives. we are in this real world where they stuck at the citadel, the hedge fund. they made a bunch of money for sid it all securities, the market maker. we have seen other big smart money players profit. silver lake is one of them, specifically on amc, bringing $113 million thanks to convertible bonds they have on the company so this goes to emphasize the point that this is not retail triumph in over the hedge funds. we have seen plenty of classic wall street players come out really well during this gamestop saga. manus: the other thing to note is that margin, for every group brokerage, they decide how much margin you need to stump up. that ramp in margin is

ultimately the blocker that stops many institutions and it was not just robinhood that stopped the trading on a number of stocks. they have come back to eight stocks rather than 50, but where are we in terms of mom-and-pop and the investor that does not hold a position? dani: even though some of the trading was blocked, the spreads on gamestop got so blown out that we had market makers making a lot of money even though volumes were depressed because of raising the margin. in terms of the average mom-and-pop investor, you have to think that may have things like the s&p 500 fund. last week, we see a shock for hedge funds, the difference between their long and short. because of what you see at the end of the chart, we had hedge funds deleveraging the most

since two thousand nine according to goldman sachs prime brokerage accounts and we see similar things reported by other hedge funds as well. as you get hedge funds deleveraging, you get this concern spreading to other markets of contagion and is why we see the s&p 500 and global stocks sink last week. $3.7 trillion was wiped off of market value last week and if you think about the average investor, that's what they are holding. they are holding the broader market. last week was not a good week if you are your average retail trader. manus: a huge amount to get across. well done contextualizing. i love that. let's take the narrative to the head of global microstrategy at natixis investment managers. we can get into the implosion of the value at risk in just a

moment but let's just stand back. where do you stand in this narrative? is it the democratization of finance or is this just there's not enough shorts out there and we have completely over media'd ourselves to challenge the institution? good morning. >> morning. we try to really look to the three month six-month outlook focused on the medium-term, the drivers, the fundamentals, what the market is going to look like. it's obviously been somewhat of a distraction to see these macro market moves but in very small parts of the market. without getting into the political question too much of whether this is democratization or if it's just a play against hedge funds, the broader question for us is does this change the fundamental drivers

for the market? does it impact our constructive outlook? at this point, it does not. yes, it's something to look at. i don't think it should be seen as just a one-off and it is something we might have to contend with more. does it go a little bit back to normal as people go back to work or they don't get the stimulus checks? that is a bigger question but the reality is earnings are rebounding and going to continue to rebound into this year. we are going to get a lot of fiscal stimulus, not on the scale joe biden announced earlier, but still, and that is just his first package. central banks are not moving anywhere and vaccines are still rolling out even though it is a little bit slower. those are the fundamental drivers we are choosing to focus on but will keep us overweight

equities and i think will support the risk as it rally into 2021. annmarie: jp morgan says is a short-lived technical tumble. but do you start now mapping out what other companies in these idiosyncratic stories could potentially move to next? we are already seeing it in the silver market. esty: we are a multi-affiliate boutique. we are going to let our affiliates handle that part and see if it impacts their strategy. we are much more long-term focused in general so i don't think that's really an approach that we would have. we are going to think broader allocations, top-down, diversification in any case, so not looking at any individual stocks to get what one group of retail investors might be doing. we will focus on the fundamentals that we like to

look at and just make sure these fundamentals are not changing, which is one of the questions we were asking ourselves in the last week or so beyond these headlines. manus: one of those questions is joe biden will bring 10 senators into the white house today to talk about the stimulus plan. $600 billion is on the table from gop versus $1.9 trillion by the democrats. that is a heck of a gap. do you calculate what you need to deliver the accelerator affect to get you to 5% growth, one point $9 trillion to 5% and anything under that is a disappointment? esty: we never expected biden to get $1.9 trillion. that was a starting number. some of the aspects of that bill did not satisfy some of the more

moderate -- centrist democrats in the first place, and we knew that they were never going to get another 10 republicans to get to that number in the senate. it's hundred billion dollars is smaller. i think there's a couple of questions. first, it seems that with biden's announcement, we almost forgot that the senate with trump last minute past $900 billion already. this is not just the next package from last summer. we just got 900 billion dollars. there's questions about marketing stimulus checks to everyone, different categories, and his pointy of questions like that. at some point, biden is going to think about how much political capital he wants to spend on this stimulus package. if he tries to force through something closer to his $1.9 trillion, that could jeopardize his recovery package and some of the infrastructure spending he's

thinking of doing later in the year that will also need reconciliation. that will allow him to do a lot more. there probably is a question that -- yes? annmarie: we have to leave it there. we will come back to the fiscal stimulus and also the vaccine rollout in europe and the u.k., next, coming up with esty dwek. she will be staying with us this monday morning. let's get some first word news with laura wright. good morning. laura: myanmar is facing a new political crisis. they have declared a state of emergency. the army is disputing his election results, the latest setback in the country's transition to democracy. the u.s. and australia are calling for the release of all other leaders who have been detained. president joe biden is meeting with a group of republican senators to discuss their alternative proposal for an economic relief package.

lawmakers are suggesting a plan worth $600 billion in response to biden's one point $9 trillion. republicans have already rejected the bigger plan but say they are willing to discuss the path forward. anti-putin protesters are continuing to protest across russia for a second straight week. within 4000 people have been arrested, including the wife of the jailed opposition leader. it's difficult to accurately track turnout but according to monitors, the number of people detained tops last weekend. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus, annmarie. manus: thank you. coming up on the show, step forward. ursula von der leyen announces extra doses from astrazeneca as the block tries to get its

chaotic vaccine drive on track. this is bloomberg. ♪ wanna lose weight and be healthier? it's time for aerotrainer. a more effective total body fitness solution. (announcer) aerotrainer's ergodynamic design and four patented air chambers create maximum muscle activation for better results in less time. it allows for over 20 exercises. do the aerotrainer super crunch, push ups, aero squat. it inflates in 30 seconds. aerotrainer is tested to support over 500 pounds. lose weight, look great, and be healthy. go to aerotrainer.com. that's a-e-r-o trainer.com.

manus: we have the elements from martin malone about the vaccine. annmarie: good morning. this is "daybreak europe." i am annmarie hordern in europe with manus cranny in dubai. astrazeneca is planning to deliver an additional 9 million doses as they try to get the chaotic vaccination drive back on track and it brings the total to 40 million, half of what the e.u. had expected to receive from the drugmaker by march. ursula von der leyen last night called it "a step forward on vaccines." she added that astrazeneca would

deliver the doses one week earlier than and. esty dwek is still with us. i want to get into your thoughts on the e.u. vaccination campaign. the numbers say the e.u. administered 2.6 doses per 100 people, compared to the u.k.'s 12.5 and the u.s.'s 8.8. we know the u.s. is talking about a big stimulus plan. you were addressing that earlier. what does this mean for the european union? they are the last in line out of these three big economies. esty: absolutely. we are talking fiscal stimulus, talking about biden's. you know he has two packages in mind. as we move on from this conversation, some of the european countries, there's talk of starting to pull back fiscal stimulus as the economy reopens. given the vaccine situation, this reopening will take longer than expected or will start later than expected, but you know, beyond the e.u. recovery

plan that was finally approved at the end of last year and that should dart to disperse funds in the coming months, we are not seeing a lot of talk of renewed fiscal support for a lot of these economies. with the lockdowns continuing, it's going to be a very of the first quarter but these divergences are going to continue. the picture for europe is definitely not improving the ways that it expected. it doesn't mean we can't get that catch-up period, that cyclical recovery as and when this reopening trade picks up steam again, but it is definitely some challenges for europe and the fact that this vaccination is not going to ramp up as quickly as possible continues to delay that pickup. manus: that vaccine rollout is something our friend of the show has sent us his perception, his data, in terms of where we are. we will have five vaccines,

three methods, and we are looking at 30 million doses of vaccines relative to cases so perhaps we are underestimating the recovery when it comes and the momentum. is there a risk that you over apply cyclicals in america relative to europe and under price that vaccine ramp-up? esty: i think the market got a little carried away with the reflation trade and beyond the gamestop short squeeze of last week. some of this was also repricing the stimulus expectations in the u.s. and repricing some of the vaccine rollout. i think europe will benefit from any cyclical recovery anywhere and at some point, we are going to have pent-up demand has europe reopens finally. it's going to be a big boost but it's going to take longer and i think, from a purely growth perspective, it's not going to be able to catch up throughout

this year. it's going to take longer to recover from these long, perspective, strict lockdowns, so definitely potential for the european cyclicals and we still like them and we still like the trade. it might take a little time before we get back to it. if you think from a non-european virus perspective, is there sort of that incremental reason to push the demand in that direction? it seems to me that relatively quickly, we might see better options elsewhere, including in the emerging markets. annmarie: we had this whole theory of chinese exceptionalism. first one into the pandemic, first one out, but data overnight showed january slowed in activity, especially services, the worst since last march, the depth of the pandemic. do you think that is a harbinger of more bad news to calm out of asia? esty: i don't think so, but it

is a word of caution i think. we know that these new variants are putting much everywhere already. we are trying very hard to contain them, but they could throw a bit of a spanner in the works for asia because they might have to be stricter than they have been for quite a few months given these new variants and trying to contain them so this sort of covid free view of asia might have to be questioned a little bit. we saw some contained lockdowns or targeted lockdowns in china. we know that in japan, it's looking a little stricter as well, so definitely some questions, but i don't think it will stall the recovery entirely. it's in the services sector like everywhere else. people self-discipline a little bit, some areas are closing a bit. it will put may be more focus on the vaccine ramp-up in asia as well and we are absolutely going to need vaccines against these

new variants. i don't think it's the start of -- manus: ok. let's hope so. esty dwek, head of global strategy, accra strategy, at natixis investment managers. thank you. let's turn our attention to the breaking news story. myanmar is facing a new political crisis. the military has detained that affect a leader and declared a state of emergency. they have seized power for a year after disputing the results of last year's election. we are joined by philip, our reporter. so what has led us to this quite radical stance by the military? philip: it has been a long time in the making, ever since the 2015 election.

he swept into power with an overwhelming majority of the vote. has been a bitter clash between her and the military ever since the elections in november. the military has been claiming millions of fraudulent votes and asking for investigations into that. that came to a head right before the start of lower parliament sitting for the first time since that election, which is now a coup. annmarie: what is happening right now is the army is putting the nation back into a dictatorship according to reuters news. just coming across the tape now. i want to know where we stand on the international front and their reaction. we do know the bite and add maturation is monitoring this. this looks to be their first foreign policy test given the new administration. what do you expect as the

international response? philip: we are starting to see countries come out with statements that the u.s. is none too happy about it. they say you have to respect the rule of law, as does the u.n., and regional partners have begun to come out with thailand, which has a coup background of its own, saying it's none of their business, that it's domestic matters in myanmar. indonesia has called for the military to respect its democracy. the big one we are waiting for is china, which has emerged as one of their biggest trading partners for myanmar, interval for their future. so we are waiting on that. annmarie: philip will be with us throughout the day on this developing story coming out of myanmar. coming up on the program, lockdown pain hitting ryanair, expecting to lose as much as 950

million euros in the year through march amid the resurgence of coronavirus across europe. michael o'leary, he is next. so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business.

annmarie: good morning. from bloomberg's european headquarters in the city of london, i am annmarie hordern with manus cranny, from dubai. this is "daybreak europe." reddit inspired target frenzy spills into commodities this morning. astrazeneca boosts vaccine deliveries to the e.u., as they try to get their rollout on track. joe biden will meet gop senators proposing a $600 billion

stimulus plan later today. manus, very good morning to you. your asset check has to be silver. in the market is not long. the reddit frenzy over the weekend was buy, buy, buy on silver. go over to wall street that's. it's the antithesis of what they wanted to do, which was going after short interest stocks and silver trade relative to perhaps the individual stocks. silver is baited this morning. everybody has to go to google, bunker hunt. the man they tried to corner for the silver market. we are seeing a little bit of a reprieve and asian stocks are higher despite the lower pmi numbers. and the pboc letting the market tighten, constricting the rates, the overnight rates, but they seem to have eased. ryanair expect to lose as much as 950 million euros in the year

through to march. resurgence of covid 19 cases in europe prompts governments to impose fresh travel curbs. the lockdowns mean passenger numbers. they will now be between 26 and 30 million compared to the previous forecast of 35 million. the ryanair ceo, michael o'leary, joins us now. good to see you this morning. it looks as if easter is a goner. the question we have for you, 950 million euros to the end of march. just how cautious is that guidance? is that your worst-case scenario or could it get a lot worse from here from michael? good morning. michael: it will not get any worse than that. we have given a range of 850 billion to 950 billion. high think it will be towards the lower end of that range

because of the traveling restrictions. this morning, traffic down 80% and despite that, three times more in the third quarter than our competitors but nobody is traveling. the restrictions mean user will essentially be a write-off. that's probably hinting towards a slower quarter. i think we take great, from the fact that the u.k. would have vaccinated most of their population by the end of march. the e.u. is running a bit behind that. we expect them to catch up by the end of june and we can look forward into the main summer peak months, a reasonable recovery of traffic. by september and october, we will largely be out of these travel restrictions because of the vaccine rollout. annmarie: where is ryanair when it comes to these vaccine passports? is that something ryanair would want to require?

michael: no, but if governments bring it in, we will happily adopt it. i think the vaccines will come in over the next couple of quarters and we will see most of the population vaccinated. certainly the high risk groups will be vaccinated in the u.k. before march and in the european union, before the end of june. we see no reason for any restrictions. if governments want vaccine passports, we will happily give vaccine passports. the entire population will be vaccinated by the end of september. the very young segments are not at risk from coronavirus anyway. manus: what is the risk of vaccine snobbery? i had the first out of my vaccine. many people here are taking a variety of vaccines, from pfizer to the chinese vaccine. vaccine snobbery, is that a risk? michael: think so.

there's been a lot of issues in the european union and the u.k. over the weekend over the slow rollout of the astrazeneca vaccine, control over the volume. there's going to be three or four more vaccines licensed by the european authorities i think before the end of february. they do need to catch up. the european has been slowly licensing vaccines and rolling them out. think you are going to see a dramatically accelerated rate of vaccination across the european union and that is the point where we are released from these restrictions. these researches do not limit the spread of vaccines. they are designed to protect the elderly in our communities. once you have vaccinated high-risk groups, there isn't really a reason for locking people down. july, august, september period. annmarie: your numbers for

traffic was 83% year on year, falling talking about the fact that we could potentially see summer pent-up demand really coming into fruition. what kind of capacity levels are you anticipating? michael: it's very difficult to judge at this point in time. i think we are looking to something between 50% and 70% of normal traffic in that key corridor. it could be slower. it depends on the speed of the vaccine rollout from march to the end of june. once you have all the groups vaccinated, get back to work, some degree of normalcy. but it's very difficult. the critical thing about ryanair is we have been using this crisis to reduce the cost. we announced an extension of our low-cost agreement with london

towards 2028. for christmas, we announced slightly lower cost 737 deliveries of 200 aircraft. more than sufficient for us not just to return to what we previously carried in 2019 click to grow to over 200 million passengers over the next five years and we are already in active discussions with a range across the u.k. in europe, many of whom want to work with ryanair to cover their loss traffic or customers that have cut capacity at those airports so we see a very strong recovery towards the summer and through 2023. manus: what does that mean for your cash burn to the end of this financial year, march, and through to the midyear? you are bullish on the reopening scenario. are you going to have to raise any more capital, is the analyst question, i suppose. michael: we don't think so,

manus. we are sitting on $3.5 billion in cash at the moment. we don't see a material change in that number through the end of march other than we have to repay the u.k. government $600 million. that will get paid at the end of march. we are seeing a very strong cash position. we raised from shareholder and debt markets in september and as long as there is some reasonable recovery in traffic into the key summer quarter and into next winter, very strong, positive cash flows will move cash ratings. if for some reason, we don't receive vaccines, we may have to revisit that, but nothing we see at the moment in our recovery through 2021 will require additional equity finance. we are strongly financed, excited about the growth opportunities, and ready to pounce on those opportunities as

soon as european governments lift restrictions. travel will recover strongly and quickly, particularly into asia and the southern hemisphere, where the vaccine rollout is going to be slower. it will take a much longer period of time to recover. annmarie: i wanted to get your sense on what it is like to do business right now in the german aviation market. lufthansa competitors, now that the government is pretty much the biggest shareholder and it is regular, what is the state of that situation and how did you feel about that market? michael: it's very difficult. the challenge for ryanair's you have lufthansa as a state-funded monopoly. they were able to buy up the small german airline. at the first sign of the crisis, they get state aid from the german government. blatantly anticompetition,

completely distorts the market in germany, but we are where we are. germans will still want the lower fare alternatives. ryan will be the airline providing that, and there are german airports where the towns that has significantly cut back capacity. they will focus their efforts on that. and the other german airports will need ryanair to deliver them growth and recover the traffic they lost because of the huge and unprecedented lufthansa cutbacks. manus: you mentioned you are ready to take opportunities, ready to grow the business. where is the biggest opportunity for you? you often say there is a carrier going to the wall. how do you grow as you come out of covid, michael? michael: the greatest thing we have grown is we need new aircraft delivery.

our capacity was sold in 2019. it will refill pretty quickly towards the second half of 2021 and 2022. there is huge travel demand in europe. people want to go back to the beaches of spain, italy, portugal, greece. we want to see friends and family. there is huge pent-up demand, which capacity has been taken out of the situation. we have other airlines. there's going to be a very strong recovery but that recovery -- ryanair is someone airline in europe that has 200 new aircraft deliveries scheduled over the next five years. we are the only airline that can go to european airports and say we are taking 15 new airlines next year. how many do you want? the recovery and opportunity will go to those airports who respond quickly and aggressively. annmarie: thank you so much for joining us this morning, ryanair

ceo, michael o'leary. michael: my pleasure. good to talk to you. manus: good to talk to you. annmarie: thank you so much for joining the program. manus, we are deep into earnings season at the moment. siemens has confirmed its 2021 outlook. the medical equipment group reported preliminary revenue at 3.87 billion euros, beating the average analyst estimate. the outlook was raised based on ongoing pandemic related demand. they make a host of products from covid-19 test kits to medical imagery and laboratory diagnostics equipment and joining us now is the ceo. i want to start with the coronavirus testing kit. you are very ambitious about ramping up the production of those 15 minute tasks. most tests take 48 hours. in the rapid ones, many say, you have to potentially question whether or not there is a false

positive. how is the ramp-up going on your end? >> good morning. it went better than expected for us, the ramp-up. we had 130 million revenues. from that, given that this is new business, i am very happy that we could contribute in the fight against the pandemic in this way. manus: testing arnett forward, we finished a conversation with the ceo of ryanair. quite a bullish conversation in terms of the rollout of vaccines around europe and the momentum. do you share that level of enthusiasm, and how will that impact health care? >> on the health care side, i

think the pandemic has taught us that health care is a super important part of the national infrastructure. we see currently a solid and healthy business environment in europe and china, and we also will see the u.s. market returning to growth in the second half of the calendar year, so yes, certainly, vaccinations help bring elective procedures and wellness tests and so on back to normal, but in the end, i think the pandemic, as bad as it is, it brought modern health care to top of mind of society. annmarie: the coronavirus is impacting regular planned operations and that of course is impacting sales of hospital

equipment. how worried are you about the slow rollout from the european union when it comes to the vaccine? >> i believe, first of all, it's a good thing that europe is acting as one. this is a topic i do not envy politicians because finding out exactly what will be the best vaccines and so on is not easy. i had those discussions myself, discussions about tests early on, and i'm confident that there will be a learning curve. and europe will get the job done. manus: let's just talk about what is the latest on the acquisition? >> very positive.

we are very well on track when it comes to the regulatory approval. we have approvals in the u.s. very positive also about europe and china, so we are on track when it comes to the moment of the closing, but i am even more excited about the spirit for the two organizations we have in the meantime -- meantime. there are people involved to moving integration planning and it's amazing what the spirit is, how people work together in a virtual format and look at the opportunities which we will have as a joint operation. annmarie: we have a new administration. go, manus. manus: my apologies.

annmarie: i want to get your take on the joe biden administration. does that change anything for your health care business? manus: i don't see a dramatic impact. health care is mainly driven by need of health care. i think when it comes to the democrats, there is a higher emphasis on health care overall. on the other hand, maybe a little bit more of regulatory guardrails for this. in the end, i believe it is a more or less neutral topic. i believe the biden administration will have a lot of focus on fighting the pandemic and then about uniting the country, i don't expect dramatic changes to the health care system. manus: annmarie: thank you so

much -- manus: thank you so much for being with us this morning to first word news. laura wright has the agenda this monday morning. laura: astrazeneca is planning to deliver an extra 9 million doses to the e.u. this quarter as they try to get their chaotic vaccination drive on track. only half of what they expected by march. europe has come under fire for its slow rollout and says it will start restricting the export of vaccines as drugmakers fail to meet delivery targets. opec-plus has seen almost total compliance for its oil supply cuts in january. the alliance aims to withhold 7% of global supplies last month in an effort to prop up prices. following a modest increase in production for january, opec and its allies decided to keep output unchanged in february and march. protests are continuing across

russia for a second straight week. more than 4000 people have been arrested including the wife of jailed opposition leader. according to monitors, the number of people detained topped last weekend. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. annmarie: laura wright, thank you so much. coming up on the program, the retail frenzy marches on but this time, it is hitting silver etf's. is wall street or main street actually profiting? we will discuss that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the price swings are just wild. >> gamestop, mc, blackberry, and

the like. >> it is a casino atmosphere. >> marketplace. >> sounds a lot like market manipulation. >> none of this is questionable in my mind. >> probably needs to be regulated. >> what we don't need is for congress to come in and save everybody. >> from a financial stability perspective, it's robust. >> everyone is talking about national or irrational. >> rationality is going to be irrationality. >> bring down the market. >> it's probably going to end in tears for a lot of these retail investors and hedge funds. annmarie: top guests weighing in on any feud -- on a feud. gamestop ended with a 400% rally as brokerages clamped down on trades that burned short-sellers. at the same time, institutions

have been profiting off the historic rally. you don't want to get this twisted. joining us now for all of this is dani burger. not so clear-cut. not exactly sticking it to the man if you are a red it user, are you? >> it is a really nice narrative that is partially this idea that you have retail traders who are taking on the hedge funds, burning their shorts, and that certainly did happen. some hedge funds were under pain but if we look at what people like market makers did, they made a lot of money off of this trade so market makers, this is for example citadel securities, different from citadel, the hedge fund, but still owned by ken griffin, and they make their money by the ask spread on these different stocks and if you look at the trading volume on gamestop, 20 billion average last week, and you look at these huge spreads we saw on the stock, average of .5%, that means trading revenue for these

market makers was nearly $.5 billion and that is just gamestop and cash trading. most of the trades happened in the derivatives market. you have a weird situation of trying to -- you brought in a pretty big, sizable payday for citadel securities. they are separate but of course, related. and then you have other institutional smart money players making money like silver lake. they made $113 million because they had a convertible amc bond last week during the rally. they used that option, exercised that option, selling 144 .4 million shares, so as you were saying, the narrative, it's not as clean as main street profits over wall street. manus: canadian pension funds bailing out on certain positions as well. do we have time for one more? we do.

let's -- >> manus, i got you covered. the next sort of thing for this is if you are an average investor, how did you do? the markets really sank last week. you have been talking about this question of contagion. goldman sachs says this week compared to last week demonstrated that unsustainable excess in one small part of the market has the potential to tip a row of dominoes and create broader turmoil, and this is where you get the effect to mom-and-pop. because you have this shock, this is goldman hedge fund long versus shorts, they deleverage to the most since 2009 according to the prime brokerage services. that means 3.7 trillion dollars was wiped off the integrity of equity markets and that is what the typical person is holding in their retirement funds, 401(k), or broad market etf's, so

average mom-and-pop investor lost money last week because the average investor is not holding millions worth of gamestop shares. manus, annmarie. manus: that is 11 standard deviations from the mean of 2010. we all read the same stories. you packed a heckuva lot in today. well done pond putting the context around that. let's go back to what michael o'leary told us. very less on the vaccine and the return. do you remember what a greek beach looks like? i emphasize the word helps. he remembers. i remember what a greek beach is like. annmarie: i cannot wait to get back to the beaches. something so interesting michael o'leary said is he thought easter and november, they were going to see the ramp up and now, that has moved out into the summer and we are talking about the e.u. spat with astrazeneca.

most of them will be vaccinated by september. if that holds true, that could be a game changer for 2021, manus. manus: indeed. let's do it all again tomorrow. the roller coaster ride continues on "daybreak europe." ♪

>> good morning. welcome to "bloomberg markets: the european open." i'm anna edwards in london alongside matt miller in berlin. matt: markets say it is another manic monday. futures point to gains at the open as traders brace for another week of reddit fueled volatility. the cash trade is an hour away. here are your t