>> silver spikes. retail investors sending the price above $30 announce. the eu tries to give its vaccine rollout a boost. president biden will meet with republican senators proposing a $600 billion stimulus plan as debate over the size of the package continues. welcome to "bloomberg

surveillance." a lot of the focus is on silver. we have been speaking with a number of participants on and off. retail investors. it is very clear the focus is on silver, but i'm going to be very cautious. the scope for a short squeeze is less obvious than other stocks. investors had a net long position on the metal since 2019. a lot of the focus is on inflation. you can see european stocks up a touch and euro-dollar, 1.20. now let's get the first word news. >> astrazeneca is planning to deliver an extra 9 million doses to the eu this quarter as the block tries to get its chaotic vaccination drive on track. only about half of what the eu expected by march.

euro has come under fire for its slow rollout and says it will start restricting the export of vaccines if drugmakers failed to meet the delivery target. myanmar is facing a new political crisis with the military seizing power. they have declared a state of emergency, detaining the nations to factor leader. according to reuters, -- saying the military is pushing the country back into dictatorship. more than 4000 people have been arrested, including alexey navalny. it is difficult to accurately track turnout, but according to monitors, the number of people detained tops the last weekend. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg.

>> silver taking center stage in the regional -- the retail investor frenzy sweeping through the markets. first of all, is it really the red crowd? if you look at how different this is to gamestop, it is much less obvious. money managers have a net long position on this since mid-2019. i don't know if we have any. -- eddie. i'm not sure if we can hear eddie. let's go back to what we are seeing in the markets overall and we will look at silver futures a little bit more. i guess the concern is that there is a lot of media reporting this is linked to read it. the parallels are less obvious. joining us also this morning is patrick armstrong. great to have you this morning.

can we really make parallels between silver and gamestop? >> you can make parallels because it is being discussed on reddit, but it is not the same dynamic that was so successful with gamestop. there is a limited free flow. it is much more liquid. on the futures market, investors are net long on silver. on the futures side of things. there is more silver being produced then being demanded. it is not a particularly tight market. there is a bit of a media buzz around. the dynamics are not the same. francine: meaning the day traders will back down?

what are we seeing? who is buying it? >> for the day traders, there is nothing to force them to back down. they can push prices up, it just cannot be the exponential growth we saw with gamestop because they are not going to move the dial to the same extent. they were forced basically by hedge funds that have large short positions, almost short-sellers because of their death -- their growth exposure went up. as it went up, they had to pull shorts which pushed buying pressure. retail investors were buying call options. the underwriters of those options had to buy stock as well. because it is less liquid, an extreme short position, the reddit crowd was able to massively influence the price. on silver, it pushes the price

up, but it is not the same effect. you are not going to force buying of silver. francine: let's get eddie from our markets live team into the conversation. how can we be sure this is being pushed on reddit? if you look at the number of posts on reddit, the number of talks, it is nothing like it was with gamestop. >> i want to say patrick absolutely nailed it. all the key talking points this morning. one of the reasons i think the reddit crowd has had an impact is over the weekend, less liquid trading venues, coin market and so on, has definitely seen demand. there was talk about silver coin's selling for $43 per going

and some coin shops completely running out. there are some in the retail crowd that got excited about this. although there are talks about people selling gold to buy silver. but i completely agree. the second-order impact is not there. it is harder to squeeze the silver market, for all of those reasons, but also just because the silver market is oversupplied. even a physical squeeze, when etf's are struggling to get hold of metal, it is not easy to enact in the silver market at all. francine: patrick, how do you see this playing out? we have western players also looking at algorithms, or putting in place algorithms to watch the reddit chatter. could something like gamestop happen again? >> i think it is not going away,

actually. regulators will not really force these kinds of things to be shut down. i don't think they will want to be viewed as being heavy-handed against retail investors. chat rooms are sort of symptomatic of everything happening in the world. you have social media, excess liquidity from central banks, fiscal stimulus, those checks went into daytrading accounts. you have deep unrest and frustration among a big subset of the population about the haves getting richer and the have-nots not participating. all of that came together with gamestop. i don't think there is a stock as extreme as gamestop, but this is something that is going to continue. i don't think it is going to have the same impact. if you are in a crowded short, that is a riskier position. i think it is very clear, and we have seen that with hedge funds,

looking at when you are shorting a stock is the natural position. francine: we have different rules in europe. could something like that happen in europe? >> of course it could, and it has to some extent with nokia being heavily shorted. it is very liquid. it is also harder to find out short positions in europe. there is very public information in the united states on short positions. it is less transparent in europe. the other big difference is there is a lot more daytrading in america. for whatever reason, europeans are more etf. daytrading is a cultural phenomenon almost in the united states. francine: thank you both. we are just getting some breaking news. bayer has agreed to produce a covid-19 vaccine. we will see whether the vaccine company gets approval.

we will look deeper. the pfizer-biontech and astrazeneca concerns with the eu shows us want to have the formula it is tough to amp up production. you see the big drugmakers not involved in the development of the vaccine process saying, i can make it for you, i can help with production to get things going. coming up, more from our interview with michael o'leary. we will talk about the future of air travel. ♪ air travel. ♪ h■ñsrú ■nga■■

>> i think we are looking to

something between 50% to 75% of normal traffic in july, august, september. it could be faster than that, it could be slower. it depends on the speed of the vaccine rollout. it requires the politicians to stop locking people out, let everybody get back to work and some degree of normalcy. francine: that was the ryanair chief executive speaking to us earlier this morning on some of the things he was going to say. talking about when he expects travel to come back to normal levels. still with us, patrick armstrong. when you look at some of the unloved stocks because of the pandemic, it has crept a lot of trouble stocks, a lot of the airline companies. when do we go back to -- do we ever go back to something that looked more like 20 in terms of travel? -- 2019 in terms of travel?

>> i do not see why we don't get back. i don't think we get there this year, but incrementally, we get back there. i do think travel comes back. it will probably be slow with countries advising travel when it is allowed, you probably should not for a while. i do not think it is an industry that is dead by any means. francine: is there anything you want to be involved in right now because you see evaluation is cheap? do you own any travel stocks? >> we are still away from it. we don't have a single travel stock. i do think the outlook is still cloudy for a number of months ahead. i do not think there is a catalyst, the way in november everything rallied when pfizer announced vaccine results.

we are probably in for a couple of quarters before upside. i don't know what the trade will be to figure that rebound. we are looking for a late than right now. francine: what are you keen on right now? if you look at valuations and yesterday, i think gamestop took over the chatter, facebook and also apple news. are these looking too expensive right now? >> apple was interesting. it had incredible growth on revenue. the stock fell a few percent, which is indicative of a fully priced stock, when a company beats expectations and investor positioning with on that side. -- was on that side. i own apple but i think the other 5g beneficiaries, samsung

on the handsets, i think 5g infrastructure, 5g beneficiaries , those companies are going to have great earnings, have a very strong tailwind in 2021. companies like erickson. activision, there will be more online usage. more beneficiaries of 5g. francine: is there anything you want to see for example, components that go into the vaccine? i don't know if you look at this e.u.-u.k. spat for e.u.-astrazeneca spat as a game changer. >> i do not know if it will be a game changer. it is probable, depending on which side you are on. in terms of fundamentals for the companies, i am not sure is going to matter too much. astrazeneca is confident on how things were written.

mckesson is a company we own which does not make the vaccines , but it is a government appointed distributor of the moderna vaccine. i think there is going to be a real emphasis on getting that vaccine out there quickly, so. francine: where do you see the next -- we are talking about a cash crunch in china. where do you see the next faultlines for the market? >> interesting, china reducing liquidity sent the market into a small tailspin. we saw gamestop and the deleveraging that is happening on gamestop is something that is dragging markets right now. you look at the stocks hedge funds are net long on, we had a terrible week. i think that has to play out. hedge funds have been getting -- redemptions.

interest rates for me and really yields are the one thing i am watching. we are moderately bullish. if we get to the point where the 10 year yield approaches anything like what inflation is, the 10 year yield a little over 1%, that is a very negative real yield. with inflation, i would become very bearish on the market. francine: we have a concerted effort from the european central bank to warn the markets that an interest rate cut could becoming. how dangerous is that if it does not come? >> i'm not sure -- it is an interesting dynamic. the rate cut will be good news for liquidity, bad news for the banking system. negative interest rates are happening less and less --

having less and less impact. the first move from zero to negative was a burst for liquidity. i do not know that it changes anyone's opinion at this point. if it does not come, i don't think anybody has priced it in is a certainty. -- as a certainty. francine: going back to what is happening in silver, could this ever happened to wti? could it happen to oil? >> it is interesting, isn't it? we saw it last april when oil prices went negative on the others things. prices went to the extreme, things nobody even thought possible, on the others. i think there are commodities where things can get very tight. about a year ago today, uranium prices really skyrocketed based on very tight fundamentals. we do have basically more demand

than is being produced. south africa and russia account for 70% of all palladium production. there are geopolitical issues there. a squeeze on those metals time with geopolitical events disrupting production, those are the commodities that are more likely. francine: thank you for the update. patrick armstrong. coming up later in the program, we will step forward as ursula von der leyen announces extra doses from astrazeneca as the bloc tries to get its vaccination drive on track. ♪

francine: economics, finance, politics, this is "bloomberg surveillance." >> ryanair expects to lose up to 950 million euros in the year through march. governments have imposed new restrictions on travel. europe's biggest discount airlines has passenger numbers will be under 30 million. it previously expected up to 35 million.

nintendo is raising its outlook for switch sales after strong holiday sales. pit now expects to sell 26.5 million units of the consul from 24 million -- the console from 24 million. that is on the back of a surge in sales brought on by the pandemic including a new animal crossing game. an online retailer is buying one of britain's best known clothing brands. arcadia is selling the labels. it follows a rival last week. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine lacqua -- francine? francine: we have a number of reporters manning the live blog looking at what is underneath what we see. we have numbered stories.

the global stocks are still rallying. silver jumping to his 2013 hi. it crossed $100 an ounce for the first time -- it is a different story to what we saw with gamestop, so i would be cautious in the narrative around it. if you get asian equities, a gain on manufacturing, but also easing china cash squeeze. coming up, a new political crisis as the myanmar military detained defector leader -- detains de facto leader aung san suu kyi. ♪

francine: economics, finance, politics, this is bloomberg surveillance. i'm francine lacqua in london.

let's get the latest on the situation in myanmar. the country has detained the de facto leader and declared a state of emergency. the army's chief says it is in response to voter fraud and they will hold a free and fair general election after it is over. they urged the 55 million people to oppose the coup. we are joined by philip eisman. thank you for joining us. i don't know if it escalated pretty quickly, but what led to the latest development? philip: it was, as you mentioned, after the november elections for democracy. after the sweeping landslide victory. military and its affiliates kind of refused to back down on allegations of mass fraud that included millions and millions of votes. we've been hearing reports that there were negotiations heading into this week at the beginning

of parliament, the sitting of the new parliament, rather. in those negotiations apparently have broken down. francine: what's been the international reaction and what can the military do next? philip: international reaction has been pretty safe throughout the day. the u.s. had responded in what will turn out to be joe's first international policy -- joe biden's first international policy push of his presidency. they've asked the military to reverse course. so has the united nations and australia, and even some other partners. at the same time, china was quite vague on its reply while thailand, which is known to have coups of its own, just said simply it was myanmar's own affairs to deal with. in terms of what might be done next, it's unclear whether they

will be allowed to participate in those elections. but for the time being, the military is installing its own president. what will be more interesting is you have, in a letter posted on facebook, urged them to oppose military action, calling an attempt to bring the nation back under military dictatorship. we're waiting to see how the situation evolves on the ground. francine: thank you so much, phillip joining us today. let's get to the bloomberg first word news with leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: the u.k. supply of vaccines is conserved -- according to this trust. the eu's new rules require vaccine producers to get authorizations before sending jobs up by the block. the u.k.'s access won't be disrupted. in a few minutes, we'll speak to

the trade minister. joe biden is meeting with republican senators to discuss the alternative proposal for an economic relief package. the lawmakers are suggesting a plan worth $600 billion in response to bidens $1.9 trillion. republicans have rejected the bigger plan that say they are willing to discuss the path forward. and opec-plus has seen almost total compliance for its oil supply cuts in january. the 23 nation alliance and to own 27% in an effort to prop up prices following a modest increase in production for january. opec and its allies have decided to keep output unchanged in february and march. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans.

this is bloomberg. francine: their hold -- to hold crisis talks today as the german chancellor attempts to speed up the vaccination drive. astrazeneca says it plans to deliver 9 million doses to the eu's quarter, only half of what brussels had expected to receive. let's get the latest from brussels and maria tadeo. i have to say it's been pretty ugly. there's even the implication of an article at the getting northern ireland. where are we now in terms of a stance from the e.u.? maria: yes, and it's a good way to put it because is not just a change in tone, but a change in policy. astrazeneca said they will put on the table an extra 9 million doses. but if you look at the total combined doses, you are looking at millions coming into the european union, half of what they were expecting. they targeted 80 million

vaccines. if you look at everything that's happened, and that reference to that clause that was almost triggered on friday, what could have been a big incident in the irish border, meant in the space of 40 hours, the european cup -- 48 hours, the european commission said they had to backtrack. it's causing tensions. they say this offer is a good step forward. it's worth highlighting this is a 50% cut. it's a number the european commission said was unacceptable. now they're happy to run along with this. there implications and ramifications stemming from everything that happened on friday, whether commissions went from 0-100, and some argue didn't fully measure the economic and political ramifications that this could have. francine: so maria, what do we know about how many extra doses astrazeneca will give the eu? were advanced -- were they

further advanced than what they need? maria: astrazeneca says they will do this a week before they expected. they should see that flow coming in quickly. it should take you to 40. but the number is clearly not enough. what is interesting is the head of the european commission announced pfizer will come in and step up with 75 million doses. so, the spin from brussels is astrazeneca vaccine was a problem, but we should move on from that and focus on the other manufacturers, which vaccines like pfizer's is becoming the lead vaccine across europe. that's the spin they're trying to put here. it's been a bad week, a u-turn on a number of communications. they been badly criticized. there's a feeling on a bigger scale from european officials that they feel this is badly handled. today, there's this anger they

feel the european union was the damage, but had to backtrack of its own mistakes. francine: what's the feeling that was badly handled? you can argue it was badly handled from the start. the fact that the negotiation wasn't noble enough dish number enough, and that -- nibble enough, -- nimble enough, and the fact it was a handled suite. maria: we know and heard from a number of countries that the agency should be doing this much quicker. also going to of underlying, nowhere to be seen last week. and then friday, she came out on the german radio. there's a lot of information still missing. it will complete the whole picture. we don't hear from the commissioner herself because the president is nowhere to be seen. when she does speak, it's on german media, almost very targeted. you could argue to the city you -- there's a -- the cdu --

there's a german election at the end of the month. there's been a distribution at the national level, european level, not buying and of vaccines and not spending enough. there's also been criticism they should not be looking at contracts on the basis of price, but should've acquired everything could done because it's the one thing that will flip the company -- at economy from a recession into a recovery. francine: thank you very much. coming up, exactly one month after leaving the eu civil markets, the u.k. is applying to the trading block of specific nations. we'll be speaking to the trade minister next. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: economics, finance, politics, this is bloomberg surveillance. i'm francine lacqua here in london. let's get straight to bloomberg business with leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: new restrictions on travel. the discount airlines as traffic numbers will be under 30 million. they previously expected up to $35 million. nintendo is raising its outlook for twitch sales again after strong holiday sales. it now expects to sell 26.5 million units of the council, up from 24 -- console, up from 24 million.

including a new animal crossing game. and big oil nearly got even bigger. according to dow jones, the ceo of exxon and chevron spoke last year about combining the two largest oil companies. it says talks were preliminary and aren't ongoing. combining the two would be the biggest deal the energy industry has ever seen, create more revenue than saudi aramco. and that your bloomberg business flash. francine? francine: exactly one month since the u.k. left the european union, there going to join the tpp trading block, centered around the pacific and includes japan, vietnam, and australia. negotiations with the group are expected to start later this year. during as is the u.k. trade minister.

thank you for joining us. when the u.k. gets accepted, how much will that benefit the u.k. in terms of trade? >> this is a key strategic move for the united kingdom because it has members with a gdp worth 9 trillion pounds and they account for 13% of the world's entire household spending. this is part of our journey to be at the heart of the global network. we continue benefits without giving up any control over our laws, or money in the eu. francine: have we done a full impact assessment? do we know who will benefit and where and how quickly? >> well, we know we already have billions of pounds to trade each year. and this deal will help give

british businesses direct access to some of the fastest-growing markets in the world. these are going to be key players in the economy in the decades to come. we could never have done this by the eu and so we believe this will be good for business and be part of britain's journey to be upholding the rules in the system around the world. francine: can you give us an exact sense of what sectors will benefit the most from this membership? >> absolutely. it will break down barriers to trade. car exports and digital. and i think it will open up all kinds of opportunities for tech, as a result of these digital benefits. it will allow data to play freely between members, remove unnecessary barriers, and really helps protect commercial source code and encryptions.

this is good news for both the goods and services exports from britain, and places britain at the heart of this trading network. this is good news for british businesses. francine: why do you think this membership is more valuable, the eu, than the eu which is a, around the corner, and the biggest trade block for the eu? >> it doesn't control our borders on the money. i've articulated the trading levels in the trading growth we have with this country -- and the trading growth we have with this country. but it will bring benefits. modern digital craig groups -- trade groups allow data to flow freely between members, including malaysia, vietnam, australia, new zealand. these original players. there are growing economies. and they will eliminate tariffs quicker on british exports,

including whiskey, for example, down from 165% to not in malaysia and cars, where we reduced tariffs quicker than we would be able to do in bilateral agreement. the rule of origin the allowed content from any country within ct ppd will help manufacturers and others, including japanese top offs, for example. francine: when you look at what happened in the last 40 to five days and the huge spat over vaccines, and the way the commission and the commission president has dealt with it, the final thing that actually unites remainders and brexiteers, that it was a good move in leaving the eu? >> well, we weren't on friendly relationships with our european

counterparts, and we have a groundbreaking deal with the eu, which was unprecedented. so, that's really good news. clearly, there have been difficulties in the recent days. but i believe we are past that now and we can continue to work together for all and ultimately, this coronavirus, this covid-19 is a global challenge, so it's right we work together. but we don't put up protections or barriers. that would get in the way for not only the economic recovery for covid, but also the battle to defeat itself. francine: minister, how should the u.k. deal with what is going on in myanmar? >> clearly, it is very concerning to see what is going on in burma. and we stand very clearly in favor of democracy and upholding that freedom. we want people to choose their own government, so we are monitoring this very, very carefully. francine: meaning that the u.k.

could do what next as a step? >> well, we will be watching this very closely. the prime minister has been briefed about this. i'm not going to state what we might or might not do, but we are very clear that our values will be upheld around the world. and britain's never compromised on those. that is to say democracy should prevail. francine: thank you so much, the u.k. international trade minister joining us this morning. coming up, the retail frenzy marches on, this time hitting silver etf's. as wall street -- is wall street or main street really profiting off these moves? we discussed that next. this is bloomberg. ♪ -- discuss that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the prices are just wild. >> gamestop, amc, blackberry, and the like. >> some wacky moves in some of

the stocks. >> the casino atmosphere. >> the market face -- marketplace. >> sounds a lot like market manipulation. >> none of this is questionable in my mind. >> it probably needs to be regulated. >> what we don't need is for congress to common and save everybody -- come in and save everybody. >> it is robust. >> this is going to end badly. >> everybody is talking about rational or irrational exuberance. >> rationale is going to be a rationale. >> it's not something that's going to bring down the market. >> it's probably going to end in tears for retail investors and hedge funds. francine: rational or irrational? that's a shakespeare question. some of our guests on bloomberg tv weighing in on the feud between retail investors and hedge funds overstock share price -- over stock share price. brokerages clamped down on trades. at the same time, institutions

have been profiting of historic rallies, heavy names -- off historic rallies, heavy names. this story is frankly amazing. retail traders winning over wall street. it's not as straightforward, though, is it? dani: it's really not. it's more nuanced because the people who have been making the most money are indeed institutional, the people you think of when you think of wall street. they make their money on the bids when these shares trade. citadel security comes to mind. if you look at gamestop along, last week, the average daily volume was $20 billion. the bid was wider than usual, meaning the trading revenue broughtin was nearly half $1

billion. this was for gamestop and the cash trading fund. we're in this real -- weird world trying to stick it to the hedge fund. we've got a lot of money for citadel securities. the two are separate, but not related. it was other smart money that decided to cash in on the rally. we had amc give a big profit to silverlight. they had convertible bonds. they decide to exercise them, which means they got $113 million with a profit. these are a few examples, but it does show is not just retail making the money. a lot of the money was made by other hedge funds in other classic wall street institutions. francine: what does this mean for the average mom-and-pop investor? dani: that's probably the majority of retail investors. they did not do well last week.

that's because some of the effects on the overall market. those effects were one or we saw hedge funds selling into the market. as goldman sachs put it, this demonstrated an unsustainable excess in certain stocks can cause a contagion effect. we saw stocks unwinding the most since 2009. you can see why they did that. there's a huge spread between the hedge fund winners and their most shorted stocks. that means overall, the market bled $3.7 trillion. the overall market is what most mom-and-pop investors are exposed to. they're holding passive index tracking funds in their 401(k), another pension scheme. this is where they feel the pain. the average investor was not holding millions of shares worth of gamestop. they saw their fortunes fall with the overall market, francine. francine: thank you so much, dani burger with the latest on a pretty incredible weekend.

looking forward to what we see this week. in the meantime, it's all about silver. i would like to caution everyone about silver. i know we've been going backwards and forwards on what silver is. it seems like a different play to gamestop because how many managers are positioned on silver. global stocks are up, of course, concern over volatile trading has receded. if you look at silver, it's across three dollars an ounce. a couple other things -- $30 an ounce. a couple other things, they will confirm other residents at eldercare homes have been offered a vaccine. we'll have more shortly with tom keene. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: server spikes, retail investors swarm into their biggest target yet. astrazeneca ups the vaccine deliveries to the e.u. as they try to give the rollout a boost. angela merkel holds crisis talks. president biden will meet with republican senators proposing a $600 billion stimulus plan as debate over the size of the relief package continues. good morning. happy monday. i'm francine lacqua in london. tom, i know we'll talk about silver. i was uneasy about making it to what'ss happening -- what's happening in gamestop for a number of reason. it's a very different scenario, especially with money managers being net long on silver. is not as contained as gamestop. tom: