francine: short interest in gamestop plummets, and so do shares. the silver rally also runs into a roadblock. bp earnings fall short. covid-19 hits the oil major's fuel sales and margins. the chief executive tells us that investors are supportive of the company's energy transition strategy. and deutsche bank's debt trading jump outpaces wall street. that's a bloomberg scoop ahead of thursday's results. good morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." as always, tom and francine from london and new york. we look at silver, gamestop, and we also look at pound because we spoke to jane foley yesterday, and that was the beginning of a more police bet on pound, and this has everything to do -- a more bullish bets on pound, and this has everything to do with the vaccine rollout. tom: we will cover that today, but, francine, have futures up 33. we will do a data check. with it, bond yields up, and the

continuing saga out of washington as the president's day start at 5:00 a.m. what is that about? francine: the president likes to give news at 5:00 a.m., the start of the day so that all the news outlets are on the same page. joe biden -- the agencies will review some of the policies, and this feels like a rollback on some of the things that president trump had put in place. he is also rolling back on some of the migration orders and family separation put in place. tom: it is a rollback, but importantly, in the three items i see, we see the idea of form a task force, or do, as you mentioned, a review. these are delicate issues, and this is not strident orders reversing what mr. trump did. it is the process of doing it, which is of course what president biden's emphasized. francine: you would argue it is no good just reversing, if you

are going to reunite families -- and there seems to be a clear want from the administration to do so -- you have to do it so it works. if you signed an order without a to-do list -- tom: for the global audience, one thing i learned at bloomberg news for the 400 years i have worked here, this is the third rail of american politics, immigration. the president moves delicately here with his executive orders. francine: i am going to wear the bowtie next. tom: i have my glasses because i am blind and i have to wear them. francine has glasses because she was in mortal combat with her children last night and got hit over the head with a terrain a source rex. francine: it was the tail, and i got hit in the eye. tom: are you ok? francine: let's get to first

word news with her. ritika: president biden pushes for a pandemic relief bill, even if he has to bypass senate republicans. gop senators had a very productive meeting, with areas of agreement and also areas that the republican plan does not address and the president wants the package about three times as large, as republicans are offering. president biden will keep -- in place on -- u.s. tariffs in place from aluminum imports from the united arab emirates. the presence is the evidence indicates that imports from the uae may still displace domestic aluminum production. it is an early market in the race for ending the pandemic. or americans have -- it is an early milestone in the race for ending the pandemic. the number of americans who have received the vaccine have

exceeded the number who have the virus. and a loss of momentum, extinct -- a key exchange raising margins. investors focused on wall street's forum. a buying stampede form, but now there are doubts about that investor army lasting. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. tom? tom: thanks so much. let me do a regular data check. we will get to gamestop and silver and all that. gamestop down, down. futures two days in a row, 3800 on spx, a big deal as well. the vix comes in -- where are we, 30 .31 yesterday? here is the key thing,

francine. yield confirms -- the first time i have said that in at least a week. when you look at the nominal yield, 1.10, and you look at the real yield coming in with a vengeance to a -0.99, that tells you inflation expectations elevate over the last 48 hours. francine? francine: i love that new benchmark. "i have not said that in seven days, or maybe 10." that is setting the trend. progress on vaccination and receding concerns on retail trading. that is giving a lift to the market and silver pullback from an eight year high. my six-year-old would cry if we said dinosaurs don't exist. i hope he is not watching. tom: they do exist. they are out there. francine: the retail investing drama continues to captivate wall street and washington. >> the reason it is all

happening is because there is a lot of cash out there moving. >> i assume hedge funds are reluctant to short on small-cap stocks for fear that reddit might be behind those. >> i want to do whatever we can do to help the retail investors. >> the investor that gets caught in the updraft on that and doesn't understand that investing looks like it is all going up, you have just told me that they are down 34% today. did the person who clicked the last by understand that that could happen that quickly? >> investing is buying assets that generate in did -- that generate income and appreciate over time. long-term investors have the and if it of those returns compounding. and you're speculating, you are in essence buying a lottery ticket. >> there is more enforcement. >> the market probably in the near term will be quite worried

and concerned about it. francine: joining us now is james bevan. we are also getting a little bit of data out of the euro zone, which seems better-than-expected. james, if we go back to the big story of the last 10 days, gamestop -- and we saw what is happening with silver -- can this happen again and again, or will short-sellers take precautions? james: i think there are three separate issues at stake. gamestop was the natural target. this challenge of excess liquidity in the market clearly was encouraged by social media suggesting that there would be outside gains on the back of foreclosing. i would expect that we should see more examples where people attempt to get those shorts and get the price up. the problem is that it is the

last man standing. it is like a game of musical chairs. buy and sell at a higher level. at the person who buys the stock will have a very difficult time because fundamentals are materially below even the current -- gamestop has a range investment value of three dollars and -- at least there is ongoing business that underpins the value of gamestop. i would say that is absolutely not the case where it will be much harder. tom: the me frame right now where we are for gamestop this morning. the chart that we have got is five days up on gamestop -- there it is, that is a better chart. up to $500 a share and down -- i am going to call modest technical support over seven

days, at 200 dollars, maybe $190 per share. have broken that this morning. from january 24 to january 20 6 -- it is about $90 per share. the breakthrough here would be painful, to say the least. james bevan, it is a great moment, another short squeeze. you and i have seen these, you and i have studied these as well. what would be the modern lesson learned here, given technology, given what robinhood has wrought? james: the single biggest lesson we should learn is the excess, liquidity, and boundless enthusiasm that will be many bubbles forming in markets. gamestop is in part to do with the her short squeeze. there is also to do with the huge optimism that people are displaying toward stories that may or may not -- this is a

market where optimism is a key driver of what is happening. tom: you and i remember when we had an ipo, and you remember mack truck bids on municipal bonds and bonds as well. that mack truck is a field-goal, three points you make. those days are over. james bevan, the free lunch of free commissions is the heart of the matter here, and the massive liquidity that is required to make this modern machine go. can that modern machine extend into the future, or will it be regulated away? james: i think that there is every chance that global liquidity and credit ties continue because central banks absolutely are nervous about pulling the rug from underneath markets, creating significant market challenges with real economy impact. i absolutely recognize central banks undoubtedly would like having inflation of the bubble.

but it is very hard to deliver, and i think that is likely that central banks will target yields along the curve. they will therefore provide -- they will continue to allow credit and liquidity to be delivered to the economy. francine: james, are you expect in retail investors to play an ever bigger role? to tom's point, is this a one-off? is it difficult to replicate in other parts of the market, or does this change the way the markets operate forever? james: i think that in all of market conditions, whether there is a high degree of credit availability, liquidity, and optimism, we should expect this to continue. it was very much executed in holland with the south sea bubble. and all of these expected crises that we observe, on the back of cheap money. francine: james bevan stays with

us. coming up, we speak with jeffrey currie, goldman sachs head of commodities research. he has a thing or two to say about gold and silver. that is at 5:30 am in new york, 10:30 a.m. in london, and this is bloomberg. ♪ want to save hundreds on your wireless bill? with xfinity mobile you can. how about saving hundreds on the new samsung galaxy s21 ultra 5g? you can do that too. all on the most reliable network. sure thing! and with fast nationwide 5g included at no extra cost. we've got you covered. so join the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction. and get a new samsung galaxy starting at $17 a month. learn more at xfinitymobile.com or visit your local xfinity store today.

tom: bloomberg surveillance, good morning, everyone. lots going on. we are covering the rollover of silver, the rollover of gamestop as well. we have been talking with james bevan about that. right now, onto a more adult discussion. alphabet and equality of

blue-chip stocks. it comes in a cardboard box, but at some point it is going to end. the last 10 years, amazon, total return 34% for the year. james bevan, so much of the acquisition of cash flow, the acquisition of growth is the timeline of a product that will never end. whether it is toothpaste, whether it is stuff in cardboard boxes. how do you find those companies? james: tom, i think that structural growth stories, decent cash flow is surprisingly easy to find. it wants to find a reasonable balance sheet, and what can serve a fundamentally profitable business as today. i think that one will make decent money. the big challenge i suspect for investors, however, is determined by how much they play with leverage and raise the expectation of -- they have

served their investors well, but domino's pizza, for example, i would assume domino's has done well, raising its leverage. we all know that means more risk , and near term had benefited substantially. in contrast, alphabet and amazon obviously are focused on maintaining cash with a strong balance sheet. that means that the stories continue to benefit, but in a world of leverage, they are not going to go with fallen companies that -- tom: the distinction between the financial -- between general electric or international business machines is compared to apple. yesterday apple with a $14 trillion bond -- a $14 billion bond offering -- james bevan, how do you determine an apple and their manipulation of share

count versus other companies such as international business machines? james: tom, i would draw a significant difference between companies who have ample free cash flow and conservatively manage their balance sheets may decide that returning values to shareholders via buybacks is better than paying dividends. people who have bought apple shares have not been receiving what they otherwise had but have had buybacks that have value. in contrast, when i look at companies issuing debt, buyback shares with free cash flow, i see -- francine: tom, do you know what moonpig is? tom: no. francine: you go online and you send a nice card to someone and you personalize it via moonpig. today it ipo'ed, and we are well

above what we were expecting for moonpig. what are all these new ipos? do you buy into any of them? james: i think there is a huge amount of -- in -- the quoted market still has plenty of headroom if yields -- if bond yields stay low and inflation does not accelerate. the s&p 500, it is still up 700 basis points. i think the value is much closer to -- i think the s&p 500 can reach 4300 points by the end of the year. on that basis, i don't want to take risk on ipos that -- that don't look frothy. francine: what doesn't look frothy? which ipo's are getting over brought? james: i would say there are plenty of other names, particularly companies went to

the outlook for inflation. so over here in the u.k. i would be looking at companies like bp and some utility companies that have underperformed since last march. the where the revenue streams -- i would look at infrastructure as a global play. i think that bank of america has been overlooked. being that inflation picks up and accelerates. francine: the market seems to be tracking the vaccination effort. the u.k. is doing quite well and you're seeing it in pound because the u.k. government is fast at getting people vaccinated. is this a misnomer? is there a concern that three months from now we turn around and think there are strange think the tide has turned in the fight against covid-19 and i would make a bold profession by

the end of the year that covid-19 will be much less of a concern then it is today. it will not be a straight line. the bigger challenge, i think, relates to the fact that the global economy took a significant sustained hit on the back of covid-19, and the related restrictions, and whatever happens, we are not going to get an economic balance. the central banks and governments -- there is clearly an inflation risk in due course. i worry that inflation is under considered by most investors, and the challenge must be that central banks need to pull the punch bowl away. tom: james bevan, thank you so much. greatly appreciate it. what's more coming up, folks.

markets really on the move and i want to underscore the equity lift. the 10-year yield, 1.10%, gets my attention. this is timely for stopped david miliband of the international rescue committee, their chief executive officer, in the 12:00 noon hour today. stay with us. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business.

ritika: this is bloomberg surveillance. i am rich to could go toe with the bloomberg business flash. bp shows big oil is still suffering from last year's historic slump, posting earnings that were worst -- that were worse than expected on weak sales. bp's ceo, bernard looney, critics better days this year. covering gamestop positions in earnest, shortly addressed in the video, the game retailer fell to about 39% of free-floating shares, down from 114% in mid-january. gamestop lost nearly a third of its value yesterday after soaring 1600% in january. hordes of day traders piled into shares. the thinkers -- the biggest bankers of robinhood are putting money into an online brokerage in record pace. $2.4 billion in the firm yesterday. the cash infusion comes as

robinhood grapples with outraged governments, increased scrutiny from washington, and questions about plans for an ipo. that is the bloomberg business flash. tom: equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, spx gets my attention, not a record high, but getting there rapidly. up 237 dow points. the most important thing is yield correlates here. 1.10. we have gone from .99 to 1.10 in what, 5, 6, 7 days? that gets my attention. gold 1849. francine? francine: global stocks are climbing especially on nude hopes for stimul up next, jeffrey -- on new hopes for similar. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am francine lacqua in london.

tom keene in new york. we have been talking about nothing else but silver all week. we are trading at an 18 year high. joining us to talk about the global commodities market, gold, oil, and silver, jeffrey curry, goldman sachs global head of commodities. i don't know whether there is a parallel between some of the gamestop and reddit action can translate to silver. it is a different market and different position from a lot of the hedge funds that are completely different. >> when you look at the silver market, it is a lot larger than the equity market. you take the total amount of interest in silver above ground and below ground, it is somewhere in the $200 billion range on an annual basis. that is substantially larger. to corner the market and create

a short squeeze, it would require each one of the wall street bets individuals to accumulate a position of somewhere around 240 ounces. that is a lot of silver. where are you going to put it? there is a silver thursday, that is far stretched. let's not forget, because of the hunt brothers squeezed in 1980, there are regulatory policies put in place that prevent a replication of that, position limits. to see a similar dynamic take place in the macro market is extremely unlikely. francine: what are you expecting silver to go from here to the end of the year? jeffrey: our target is $30 an ounce being driven by a combination of a stronger gold market as well as the solar panel demand, the green capex

driving prices. we expect if you see the biden administration approved solar initiatives, that target the move to $33 an ounce. the market is trading at $27 announce. there is a fundamental story here. we like silver, however we do not like it because of a short squeeze. we like it because of the fundamental story behind it. tom: you were mentioning as we were going into this interview, jennings bryant, the cross of gold. let's talk about the cross of silver, which is the fixation of the public on trading commodities versus the fundamental story around tangible assets. you have always weighted the fundamental story. is that a dated view? do you have to shift and be more supple in your thinking about the value of fundamental

markets? jeffrey: we think about value in markets more broadly. part of the reason we never saw a ball rally is because we never saw significant demand for commodities. what we think these populist movements are likely to do is create an environment in which government starts spending, particularly on lower income households, that will create that demand for commodities and goods broadly and create more cyclical commodity and economic entity backdrop. that sits at the core of our bullish view on commodities. we see redistribution all policies, environmental policies , versatility and supply chains. green leveling, spending on green to level income, these types of expansion programs are going to be behind our bullish

view on commodities. tom: your bullish view on commodities has been noted. there are some people pushing against you. it seems like you have just started, and you are two standard deviations through the trend. it is a remarkable break out of the long-term resistance we have seen. reaffirm the magnitude of the movement you believe we will see. jeffrey: i would put it on par with the bull market we saw in the 1970's or the bull market in 2000. why? our redistribution will policies back then where the great society, the war on poverty. you had the war on acid rain, clean air act, clean water act, lots of spending on by mental policy back then. our versatility in supply chains, you had the cold war

with russia, and now we have a cause i cold war with china. -- quasi cold war with china. the chinese are buying strategic reserves in grains very similar to what the u.s. and the europeans did back in the 1970's. the analogy is probably something similar to the super cycle of the 1970's. francine: going back to the silver trade, do you see the ability for retail traders to break into natural gas and oil? jeffrey: the size of these markets are extremely large. they can break in and trade, and they have been part of these markets. you have etf's in natural gas and oil, which are large, and you see an active presence of retail participation in those markets. however, what is different about this is the idea that they could drive these markets.

they did drive and push silver yesterday. when you start to get markets like oil and natural gas, the liquidity is substantially larger. it becomes that much more difficult to do. participation? yes, they are participating. they are part of these markets. to be the driver of these markets like they were in silver yesterday is a much larger question. francine: if that is what they decided to do, would they play it through etf's, or is there an instrument that would make it of easier access? jeffrey: the etf is the easiest access. one thing i want to point out that makes oil radically different from silver or gold, the etf in silver and gold is not physically back. that short retail investors were focused on is the hedging of that physical position in the etf.

the etf in natural gas and oil is nothing other than a rolling front month gsci style contract. it is a paper position, not a physical position. you can take all of the etf physical position in gold and put it in your office. it may break the floor, however you could fit it in this office. the etf position in oil, if you were to hold it in a physical position, it would require something like 70 or 90 blcc's. imagine parking that in the east river of new york, or the tames in london, that would be difficult. francine: let's get straight to the bloomberg first word news. here is ritika gupta. ritika: present guided -- president biden and republican senators have agreed to keep

negotiating a bipartisan relief package. the president made it clear he would keep pushing large relief measures. he wants about three times as much in the bill as republicans are offering. senate republican leader mitch mcconnell has waded into the interparty fight over representative marjorie taylor greene. he denounced what he called her loony lies and conspiracy theories. house democrats are threatening to punish her if republicans do not take action over her past incendiary marks and social media moves. in new york, we are being hammered by a snowstorm that could become one of the worst in history. the city could get as much as 20 inches of snow. rail service is at a standstill. roads are impassable at points.

chancellor angela merkel has promised all germans a vaccination by the end of the year. she has come under fire after pushing for the european union to take a lead on vaccine purchasing. riddick's essay delegating responsibility to the eu has slowed down a national inoculation program. global news 24 hours a day, on air and quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ready to go to. this is bloomberg -- i am riddick a go to. this is bloomberg. tom: this is more than a timely interview. well-timed, harvey pitt, the noon hour, balance of power. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

francine: -- tom: "bloomberg surveillance." we are getting a commodities brief from the gentleman from goldman sachs, jeffrey currie. the goldman sachs monday the index is more oil waited, in the bloomberg commodity index is more blended out. it has been a long-term disinflation decline, however you want to phrase it. going back to that break out to the china boom, we are well out over two standard deviations. it is a currie call on "bloomberg surveillance." across a broader index, the constraints of a market, the

equilibrium is a smaller box. i am doing my chicago imitation. how tight are those markets across different commodities? jeffrey: when you look at the current environment, every single one of these markets is in a deficit with the exception of -- you never see deficits across the board this early in a business cycle. it is indicative of the supply constraints. we like to call it the revenge of the old economy. you don't invest in the basic productive capacity of your old economy, it creates supply constraints. oil, that has been artificially constrained by opec. they do it because they know once demand rebounds, there is competition. tom: i am going to assume there is not a copper cartel. what is so important, i would suggest going way back to my

reading of commodities 40 years ago. people do not understand the constraints of the copper market that when it goes, it goes. jeffrey: the reason why you get that is that these commodities are really important to global trade. once they start to begin to go up, it increases global liquidity. you can see global liquidity is rising in every one of these central banks around the world. global liquidity gets lent out, creates more liquidity, more demand for commodities, weaker u.s. dollar, and you get that reflation feedback loop. it worked in the 1970's, the 2000's, and it is returning again today. francine: talk to me about how the biden administration, what it means for some of these trade concerns between china and the

u.s. and therefore access to some of the raw materials that are needed to do components in our iphones and the like. jeffrey: part of the reason there is such a bid to summon these key commodities is china is stockpiling. that is part of our rev thesis. china is building stockpiles of grains to protect itself in terms of supply chains for foods, but also metals, these ke y metals that go into their manufacturing and production supply chain. this is already under the way -- already underway. you think about why they do this, the trade war, covid demonstrated having critical supply chains is critical going forward. we are out of copper. you look at the inventory draws of the first five weeks of this

year, they are unprecedented. inventory levels are back to 2008 levels. we have not even started biden' s electrification or green initiative. what happens when we try to do this? francine: thank you for joining us, jeffrey currie, goldman sachs global head on commodities. coming up next, we will be talking about more on burma and that true in the -- coup in myanmar. this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloomberg. ♪

ritika: this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am ritika gupta with the bloomberg business flash. boeing is signaling it is at risk of losing more than one third of the orders for its 777x jet. some customers have the right to walk away from sales contracts. the 777x will not take to the skies until 2023. the pentagon is going to college to try to fix its most expensive weapons system.

the defense department is tapping the expertise of johns hopkins, carnegie mellon, and georgia tech. they are being asked to figure out what can be done to fix software problems on lockheed martin's f-35. the plane is a flying computer, and software has been a nightmare. it tapped the debt market for the third time since may, selling $14 billion of bonds. the iphone maker wants to return more to shareholders. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine: thank you so much. the european telecom -- part of the mobile network is down due to a military coup over the weekend. the military accounts for 6% of the sales. we will have more on telenor. if you break down some of the

sales, myanmar is 6%. other parts of the world in asia are bigger than proportions of older carriers. we will have a look at what that means for their growth going forward. do we have a data check? tom: i have got a list of 37, further improvement in the market. this is on a better yield structure, higher yields, almost back to a normal market. vicks at 27.02. francine: telenor on the rise in today's trading session. we are delighted to be joined by the chief executive who joins us. thank you for being with us today. we need to start talking about myanmar. i believe in recent weeks you also had to register some of the users, i don't know whether you users or existing users. this is a big growth story for

you. what do you make of the events in the last couple of days? >> thanks for having me. we entered the myanmar market back in 2013. that has been an important part of opening up this market, their democratization process. it is sad to see what is now happening. i hope we will find a solution. we are focusing on providing connectivity for all lower tier customers. distribution is normal. our employees are safe. we are going to continue in this critical phase to make sure that we are part of continuing to deliver communication services. there has been a lot of changes in myanmar the last year. this process created a change where people went from -- into

primary seven cards. we hope we continue to be that. francine: how does it change how you view myanmar going forward? could it potentially stunt your growth there significantly? >> i think that is too early to say. the development in myanmar has happened very fast. most people have a mobile phone, and they are heavy data users. i hope that continues also with what recently happened, but it is too early for me to speculate on what may happen. the most important thing is that we stay focused on delivering the services that our 20 million customers need. tom: these are delicate issues, but certainly you and your technology are at the forefront of the expansion of some of these challenged countries, some of these smaller countries.

they are massive data users. where is telenor in burma in five years or in other countries like it? where do you see that use of data buttressed against government shock in five years? >> what we have seen in all of these markets, and we are operating in bangladesh, pakistan, and malaysia, we see these markets leapfrogging the digital age. they are kind of going from nothing to being advanced users in very short periods of time. we see these customers becoming more and more advanced data users. the data ecosystem is being developed. local content, local content providers coming into the market. where we see growth opportunity in that respect in all of these emerging markets. tom: these nations each have

their own distinctive stories wrapped around democracy, the challenges of democracy, and the outcomes in a more autocratic sense. do you suggest these countries will limit social media, or do they use social media constructively over your products? >> i think what we have seen in all of these markets is that the time has passed beyond the ability for these governments to control information because people are used to social media. they are used to being part of the global communication. i think that development is going on its own. that is why we think we are part of the solution in this market. i get the question, why do you bother with all the challenges you had in these markets being political and bad economics?

we want to be part of the societies. we think communication is part of that. that is why we are present and why we continue to develop. tom: this has been wonderful. thank you very much. sigve brekke with us, the chief executive officer of telenor. there is a lift to the market. we will do gamestop. it is rolling over. we will do silver. it is rolling over. there is the rest of the market out there. we will start strong in the next hour. this on a day of amazon and alphabet earnings. futures lift, s&p 3800. this is bloomberg. stay with us. ♪

tom: this morning, consider

gamestop is trading 63% lower than the $512 top take of three days ago. consider that silver is rolling over. consider that robinhood must go direct listing or must go back to appease those that bailed them out. futures lift, yields too. amazon to alphabet. biden goes bipartisan. romney on the couch. the president takes a substantial and productive meeting. the left is left out in the cold of the blizzard of 2021. good morning. "bloomberg surveillance." i am tom keene in the blizzard in new york. rinsing the four in london. francine lacqua in glasses -- francine lacqua in london. francine lacqua in glasses.