tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg February 3, 2021 4:00am-5:00am EST
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francine: end of an era. jeff bezos will step down. whatever it takes. former ecb president mario draghi will be asked to form a new italian economy and steer a country out of the crisis. stimulus in the u.s., earnings and fading concerns about volatile retail trading. good morning, everyone. welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i am francine lacqua here in
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london. a lot of folks still focused on gamestop and read it, the route that turned into something completely different. if you look at some of the optimism out there, i think some is definitely to do with what we are seeing in the u.s. the global stop doing a lot better than expected, a lot doing with alphabet, the parent company of google, and we look at what will be happening with gamestop and the fact that gamestop shopping in early trading, that could have implications about what janet will do next. let's get straight to the bloomberg first word news. here is leigh-ann gerrans. hi, leigh-ann. leigh-ann: hi, francine.
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gamestop and other retail investor favorites also slumping. robinhood that put out a restricted list last year -- last week have lost a combined 167 billion dollars in market value in the last few days. treasury secretary janet yellen is summoning regulators to discuss the recent volatility is. former ecb chief mario draghi has been tapped to become italy's prime minister. producing a new coalition for outgoing premier just a picante. the veteran policymaker may the about to take charge. european commission president ursula von der leyen is taking the blame over the recent gaffer vaccine next ports. sources say she made the comment that a private meeting after facing a barrage of criticism. she was forced into a u-turn over controls a vaccine shipment between ireland and northern ireland and the eu's commitment
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to keep the eu's borders open. and russia has jailed alexey navalny for two years and eight months. he had been recovering in germany from a near fatal nerve agent attack. and a defiant statement, of course, he said someone did not want him to return to russia a free man, referring to president putin. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg @quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: leigh-ann, thank you so much. it is the biggest change at amazon since jeff bezos founded the company. his replacement will be andy jassy, who runs amazon's cloud computing unit, a fast-growing
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division that changes the way companies buy what actually powers them. let's get to dani burger. the first question, i read the headline, it came out last night, is -- why now? what can you tell us about the oddity of the timing? dani: look, i think i think it did catch a lot of people by surprise, but this has been at the top. since starting the company, growing at over $1.6 trillion in market cap, we have also seen amazon be able to get to a quarter of $100 billion in revenue, so, for bezos, getting to the next $200 billion might not be as fun. there has already been so much accomplished here. part of it is also one of the awkward realities of being one of the wealthiest people in the world, in that he has so many different companies and projects that he is interested in that he has started to balance. one of them, of course, being
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blue origin. that is the company that competes with elon musk's spacex. musk did recently surpass bezos. in leaving, bezos did send in a mall his company, saying, "i want to concentrate on my passions," one of which is blue origin, that he has funded by selling $1 billion worth of amazon shares a year, and only being able to dedicate one day a week. so in some ways, i am stepping back from amazon so i can focus on passion projects, such as this. francine: dani, what challenges is he leaving behind for his replacement, andrew jassy? dani: we can see an even bigger concentration on the cloud, but probably one of the biggest legacies that bezos is leaving behind for him is this, the antitrust scrutiny that amazon
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can face from here on out. we have already seen multiple lawsuits come onto the company, even some private citizens in india going on to sue amazon. eu and canada of course in there as well. now with democrats in control of both the house and the senate in the u.s., there is certainly a greater push to examine these companies and perhaps even break them up. so how andrew jassy response to that, how he is able to really preserve amazon as it currently is will be one of the huge challenges. francine: dani, thank you so much, dani burger with the very latest on amazon. coming up, we actually moved italy, italy looking ahead. former ecb president mario draghi has been tapped to steer the country out of the world's recession since the end of world war ii. we will have all the details, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ h■ñsrú ■nga■■
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>> mario is a great leader at every level. may i say, it is up to the italians in the italian government to decide who the leader should be, but on a personal level, i have a great respect. he will do whatever it takes to save the euro, so i wish him the best if he gets the job, and i am sure he will deliver for all of us, as he did for europe. francine: that was the santander chair ana botin speaking about some of the politics going on in europe right now. former ecb president mario draghi has been tasked to become
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italy's next prime minister. the country's head of state will meet with draghi later today to ask him to try to form a government. this comes after talks failed to reach an agreement on a new premiership for outgoing prime minister just a picante. i am pleased to be joined today by davide serra, chief executive of algebra's. the markets like the fact that mario draghi could be back in the seat. we need to see whether he has enough support in the senate. will he get enough support? davide: i think mario draghi will have the support in parliament, and the reason is because the situation requires unity. all of key parties understand
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that the investments are key, and at the same time, the house situation or the crisis is in the worst recession since world war ii, so this is basically wartime, it needs unity, and i think draghi will deliver it. francine: davide, what happens next? mario draghi comes in, what does he focus on? certainly the recovery fund. and when does he go to election? davide: well, i think, so, first, if you put the priority up for the country, clearly you have the covid crisis, the vaccine being shipped by europe as we speak, i believe, that is what we have been told, and that means also the first two months, in terms of vaccine
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availability, will ease. that means you are looking at probably about majority of people above 60 years old are vaccinated before the summer. i think that is a game changer in terms of what you can then actually do from an economic perspective. as far as the team is concerned, i thing mario draghi has the intelligence, the experience, you know, to ask for the best of who is in the country. and i i think whenever he is asked upon will say yes, and as a result, i suspect this will be the strongest government italy has ever had, and that has to do always with the leader, and i understand there is no better leader that italy can put in place at this time. francine: davide, do you think this is a done deal? we have had technocratic governments in the past, and they have not really worked out. davide: no.
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i do believe italian politics has a survival instinct clement right now, if you look at people in parliament, 70% of them will end up finding a job with bsi, and the majority of people in parliament right now did not have a job before, so i think they will do anything it takes just to keep a job, and that is the reason why they are pleased to have mario draghi, because if not, they will all go back to being unemployed. francine: so how long would he be prime minister for? he was always touted as a possible, you know, president of italy, replacing matamela -- ma ttarella, i believe, in march of 2022. does that change that dynamic? davide: i think it is early to tell, but surely, i think, as
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far as the interest of the country, i think probably mario draghi will end up putting in place a team for the investments, for the recovery of the next generation, will put in reforms, which are required to then get access to the funds, which i think you're up so correctly put in as a prerequisite for getting the funds. and then 2022, i think is the most likely candidate to become head of state. but while the recovery is being set up, the team is being set up, then at that point, you know, i think the most popular job will be done. francine: davide, if you look at the market reaction yesterday, as soon as news broke actually that the president was going to meet with mario draghi, it had a bit of an impact also on dpp. if the market going to, you know, buy in? is italy now going to be much more investable because of who is in charge? davide: listen, i do think so.
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there are three consequences, in my view. the first one, which is the most important one, italy is the weakest link in the euro zone because of its debt level. i think having mario draghi in charge will give a key boost to structure form, plus the capital campaign from europe on the recovery plan, which is about 210 million euro, so i think it is a game changer. secondly, for domestic italy, that is key, because that means all the capital that has been flying out of the country before , basically because of the incapacity of the government so far as actually doing anything, i think at that point, capital will look back at the country and say hey, this will take place. we will deliver this, too. and the third one is, if you look at the main cap, you know, corporate italy, they are less than 10 times earnings.
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basically if you get one of the cheapest and some of the best interpreters in europe with reforms, i think that will be a good investment. i think that will be the domestic angle and the mid-caps will do very well in the next couple of months. francine: will mario draghi do the reforms and spend the money where he wants to spend it? davide: i think this will be the key test. the country needs them, and people are aware of them, and i think, given what has happened, in particular this year, with the tit-for-tat between regions and states and who is to blame and basically the pretty much incapacity of delivering a single united message, i think italians are ready for it. and, most importantly, without reforms, there will be no recovery money, and that, to me,
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the next generation fund is the key. you have basically given a character the country, but there is a stick, too -- carrot to the country, but there is a stick, too. and i think with the stick and the carrot, it will work. francine: what does it mean for italian banks? davide: you are improving the outlook 12, 36 months from now. i think there will be a couple of implications. first, with capital coming in the country, you have performingsecond, you have high recovery value. and third, i think, i think lots of firms that were hesitant will be back to investing, so i think anything that has a domestic tilt. you won't improve the domestic exporters, you know, because basically the key reform, that will be in domestic assets. and i thank him as a result, the italian banks will be keeping it
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london. now, we are just getting some breaking news hsbc said to move some of the investments cohead back to asia. this is something we have been talking about for quite some time, given the pivot to asia, given also the links to china. the head of hsbc will quit. that was last week. we are reporting hsbc is set to meet with the investment banker, to head to asia. now to get back to markets and the story that mario draghi could be the next prime minister, joining us to talk markets, to talk draghi, andrew sheets, morgan stanley cross asset management. first of all, we do not know the parliament will vote for him,
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but what does it mean for the markets if he becomes prime minister? he needs to push a very difficult response, virtually. andrew: yes, i think that is a good point, that the challenges, the macroeconomic challenges in italy are larger than, obviously, one person, one individual, but, you know, i do think there are, you know, some elements here where he is somebody who is clearly international familiar to investors, you know, outside the region come outside of europe, that i think he is somebody who is associated with very aggressive policy action and using the levers of policy to the fullest extent to support the economy. and so we obviously need to see, you know, to what extent, you know, he is successful in taking on that role, but i do think, from the perspective of, you know, putting out a leader that the market will at least have some familiarity with and will at least feel like it knows what the policy priorities are and what the motivations are, i
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think, in in that sense, you can clearly understand why the markets would take it positively. francine: is there a concern, andrew, that the markets get ahead of itself and italian politics get in the way and reforms are difficult and he cannot spend the money where it needs to go? andrew: well, that is a risk, although i still think the advantage that europe has, i think it is very far away from the boundary of excessive optimism. you know, i think that is true in terms of institutional investor optimism. i think that is true in terms of retail investor optimism. i am sure we will talk later about some of what is going on the u.s., but i do think an advantage that the european equity story has come a relative to other regions, given where we sit today, i don't think you can say this is a region where investors are excessively optimistic or euphoric about the outcomes. and so, you know, i think those expectations matter, and the fact that those expectations are
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starting lower in the region and lower in italy likely helps. francine: andrew, how does the ecb manage a higher euro? they of central bankers, actually, the irish one, for example, the netherlands, bracing us about a rate cut. does the ecb think that the market's mispricing the possibility of a rate cut? andrew: well, i do think -- i think the ecb is supportive, is going to be supportive, is going to try to encourage a weaker euro. i think they have been, you know, their statements have been focused on the currency's strength to an extent that federal reserve has not been. i think the growth differentials between the u.s. and europe will look to help those aims, because, certainly in the first quarter and the second quarter this year, you should see that growth differential widen as the u.s. gets additional fiscal stimulus and vaccine progress goes more quickly. and, you know, the euro is also
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up, around 15% year-over-year. it is very strong. i think there is a strong argument that it is now somewhat more expensive. it is a negative carry currency. the relative fundamentals are weaker. so a lot of those factors, you know, that we look at from a cross asset perspective are all euro-negative. so in some sense, you know, our thinking is this problem, almost in some ways, for the ecb solves itself, that the euro is weaker because of those fundamental drivers, and they need to do less. francine: andrew, thank you so much. andrew sheets from morgan stanley stays with us. coming up, the vaccine rollout continues. we also speak to the eu's ambassador to the u.k. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
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francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london. let's get to first word news with leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: according to data from oxford university, astrazeneca's covid vaccine is 82% effective with a three month gap. it may also make it harder to pass on the virus with a report showing a two thirds drop in transmission after the first dose. russia has jelled opposition leader alexei navalny for two years and eight months. he was arrested last month on his return from germany, where he had been recovering from a nerve agent attack. in a defiant statement, he said someone did not want him to return to russia, referring to president putin. the end of an era for amazon. later in the year, jeff bezos will step down to focus on innovation, replaced by the head of the cloud dealer, andy jassy.
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global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: we are also getting data out of the u.k. that pmi figure, for the month january, for services is what i am looking at, a touch better than expected. if you look at the numbers, 39.5. it is an ugly number because anything below 50 means it is a contraction, but it is better than what we had before, 38.8. the reflation track is back. with the reddit situation out of the way, the reflection of the treasury yield curve is the steepest since 2016. to talk about market movement is
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andrew sheets. thank you so much. first of all, given the volatility we saw in the markets over the last 10 days, there were certain instances that it was fun to watch given the expectation of what would happen in the fight between wall street and retail investors in the u.s. does this end here or does it morph into something else that is difficult to predict for other parts of the market? andrew: i think that is a key question, and it is one we can quantify to some extent because if we think about the fear that the market had, that the short squeezes or the volatility would feed back into the broader financial system, we could track a number of measures into the financial system stress, and so far those measures have been really well behaved. the credit market has been well behaved, the interbank funding market has been well behaved. for the moment there are few signs, and that has been quite
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consistent over the last week that what is going on in the equity market is just enormous levels of volatility, and president and moves between alone stocks and will shorted stocks. it is not causing figure financial stresses, and thus i think it is easier to say that it is a more contained, isolated risk rather than something that will disrupt the bigger story. francine: when you look at -- is there any part of the currency market that could see this kind of volatility? i am not asking you to predict, but how much volatility could we see in the next five to six months? andrew: what is interesting about volatility market is how much volatility is expected in equity markets versus almost anything else. the implied equity of has really -- from expected volatility in
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currency markets or a -- or in interest rate markets. i think that is a disconnect that now should normalize. i think equity volatility can decline here as some of the volatility around the retail trade abates, as some of those conditions normalize. we have had -- we are having a pretty good earnings season, while at the same time some of the drivers of macro volatility, growth potentially being better than expected, which is our view at morgan stanley -- we remain quite optimistic around global growth forecasts -- that that you generate some more volatility. that would generally be my expectation. equity and volatility declines and some of the macro volatility rises, and i think specifically on currencies we are neutral on the u.s. dollar. i don't expected to underperform to the extent that others in the market do, but we generally like procyclical currencies, something like the canadian
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dollar, which would benefit from a reflationary trade. francine: so what exactly happens to the reflation trade? does it accelerate? does it all depend still on lockdowns, and we do not have any visibility on what happens with it? andrew: i think it still continues, and in part because the fundamentals behind it, the improving growth, our expectation that the virus statistics get better, that that is all still a tailwind. as you noted at the beginning, some reflationary measures have moved a lot, so the valuation does matter and that limits some of the upside. i think there are still areas -- we think there are still areas where that is not fully in the price. if i go back to currencies, a pair i am watching closely is something like the canadian dollar versus the swiss franc, and more cyclical, commodity focused currency versus a more stable, safer currency.
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if one pulls up a long-term chart of that pair, it is still very low. it has not moved very much in light of something that should reflect or could reflect a much more global economic confidence and less fear around the global economy or a flight to safety. we do think that there is still room for some of these reflationary trends to continue. one just has to be mindful of valuations in the parts that have moved a lot more. francine: when you look at what we are expecting from the u.s. stimulus, what if it falls short? what does that mean for where you want to be position? andrew: that is a major risk. when i think about how our view could be wrong, one would be that we do not get further fiscal action where that that fiscal action comes below a trillion dollars, which our current estimate is between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion.
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i think the speed of it is also important, that delays here will also kind of pushed back the inflection of growth. i think something that is really important, when i think about the forecast of ellen zentner, our chief u.s. economist, what she is focused on is that growth picks up almost kind of three months before the consensus expects it to pick up. we have this growth picking up in the second quarter, where economists have it happening toward the middle of the year. three months is a lot for the u.s. economy, for an economy that large. if stimulus progress we think is important to helping that growth happen sooner than others happen, but if it doesn't come through, that would be the risk to this -- that would be the rest of the story. francine: if we see alphabet beating -- would some of the
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valuations in the surrounding industries, could they be worrisome? andrew: it is not a sector that we think would lead the market from here. it was obviously at the center of some of the recent volatility. fundamentally the challenge that technology has here is if we think about the concerns of the market, this idea that everybody is optimistic or that everything is very expensive, i think unfortunately the technology sector is kind of in the center of that venn diagram. it is popular and historically expensive. that does not mean it cannot go up, but i think it makes it harder for the sector to outperform. ironically, going back to the segment before the commercial break, i think this is an advantage that european equities have. they are not as expensive and they are not as well-liked. strong earnings numbers will help, i just don't think they will outperform the market. francine: andrew sheets from
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francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london. shares in novo nordisk higher this morning, that's after the danish tech giant said operating profits may rise as much as 8% at thompson exchange rates in the current financial year. gains are being driven by novo nordisk's portfolio, and a diabetes drug. we are delighted to be joined by the chief executive of novo
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nordisk. you mentioned that novo is interested in broadening the areas of -- adding this into what to you -- to what you do. what do you think about this specifically? >> we have a very strong platform in our product which is being used in diabetes and also obesity come and there is an opportunity to broaden this out into areas. we are pursuing a strategy of using known technologies and -- into these areas where we can gradually build a stronger platform into future growth. francine: is u.s. unemployment impacting your sales? a lot of the drugs you sell to the u.s. have to be paid out of pocket instead of being paid by insurance -- covered by insurance. lars: somehow it is impacting us. we have put in place
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affordability programs in the u.s. where we provide free insulin for people who have been hit by unemployment because of the pandemic. so it is impacting us. it is our role to protect those patients in a difficult situation, but still we have strong growth coming out of the u.s. we had 3% growth in the u.s. and a year we had headwinds of pricing fronts, etc. as we look into 2021, we are encouraged that we can grow at a higher level in the u.s. despite the pandemic. francine: when you look at some of the delays that people are having treatment because of the pandemic and that is also i guess impacting at the margins what you do, when do you expect more of a return to normality? lars: we are seeing compared to the first wave that now we have better means of contacting with a physician by digital means, so we can still promote our
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products, but of course when you launch new product you are impacted by less face-to-face time with physicians. as we look into 2021, i would expect, like the rest of us, that as we get into the second quarter, more and more would be vaccinated and through the summer we will see a gradual easing of the pressure in health care systems, and those are the systems we help, so when it comes to summer, i think we will start to see a gradual -- a gradual return to normal operations. francine: how is the acquisition of -- progressing? lars: that is now closed, so we have full control of the formulation technology that made it possible for us to get the large market into a tablet and bear looking at how we can use that technology in a broader way , so it is both a financial transaction in the sense that we buy back the streambed it is also gigi jake and a sense that increase a bigger opportunity,
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pursuing the potential of antibiotics outside of what we know today. francine: could you ask plain to us also why you split the role of chief scientific officer of cfo? lars: we have mr. thompson, who has been with us for 30 years, and 20 years as chief science officer. i think that is by far, by any token, a record in our industry, and he has been immensely successful. we have a strong pipeline right now. he is retiring from novo nordisk to start a career with the novo nordisk foundation. one person succeeding him will focus on research and early development and the other focusing on product of elements. that means we will have even more focus, in my executive team, on r&d.
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the platform for growth for the coming -- that is a continuous execution of our existing strategies, and it is really two people who have delivered a lot of the growth in the past, and success in r&d. francine: thank you so much, lars fruergaard, the chief executive of novo nordisk. coming up, as northern ireland's border gets dragged into a europe-wide row, we speak to the ambassador of the u.k. that is coming up next, and this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london. it is a little more than a month since the u.k. left this single market and customs union, but already relations are being tested. michael gove's desk -- demanding that the european union own -- amid rising tensions in the region. also over the last week, the you
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threatened border controls on the island of ireland in a bid to stop exports of coronavirus vaccine. the threat was withdrawn after widespread condemnation. we are delighted to be joined by joao vale de almeida. thank you so much for your time today, when you look at what happened in the last 10 days, communication between the u.k. and the e.u. was pretty bad. do you accept that the vaccination effort in the e.u. and access to the vaccines were botched? joao: good morning, first of all. this is the first anniversary of the opening of the delegation, the new delegation, and i am very happy to be with you this morning, francine. we argue that this will be a very good relationship, but it will be a lively one, an intense one, and that is only normal because we are so close and we have so much in common, and we
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are starting a new cycle. we hope this will be a virtual cycle in our relationship. regarding the events of last friday, it was last friday. let's move on from last friday. the story is basically over. the other side was correct, in three hours we never triggered article 16 of the protocol that has to do with northern ireland, and so i think we need to move on, and there is a lot we need to do in this relationship and that is what i am focused on. francine: and i understand, ambassador. maybe the concern -- i think the u.k. is trying to understand, given what happened in the last weeks, given what happened in the last three months, and frankly in the last 12 months, whether the e.u. is a friend or a foe of the u.k. which one is it? joao: definitely we are friends, we are allies, we are close neighbors. we will have in the future a
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special relationship. our history, our geography, but also economic ties. at all levels, but also the people, even our families. there are almost 5 million e.u. citizens in the u.k., more than one million u.k. citizens in the e.u. all of this brings us together and we should focus on what brings us together, including concerning the virus. let me be clear about one point. our enemy is the virus. britain is an ally in the common fight against covid. no one can fight covid on itself. no country can protected citizens if the country's next door are not protected, so this is a common fight, and that is where we are focusing our efforts. also at international levels. we need to work with the g7 and we look forward to the g7
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chairmanship by the u.k. to further these efforts. francine: do you think the u.k. will be within its rights to invoke article 16 given the rising tensions in northern ireland, and could the e.u. also think about rewriting what was agreed? joao: let me be also clear about this point. we are among the greatest supporters of the good friday belfast agreement. we were there from the beginning politically but also financially. still today even after brexit, we are supporting financial programs that sustain the good friday agreement. i visited northern ireland in september and talked to all parties of all communities, and i stressed that again. so what is the best way to protect and preserve and support the good friday agreement? in our view it is to fully implement the protocol, which is
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attached to the agreement. and guarantees that there will be an open border between ireland and northern ireland, and there are mechanisms to address the trade between great britain and northern ireland. so all that has been agreed after a long negotiation, as you may remember, and today we will have an important meeting, bringing together all parties to address the issues that need to be addressed. i think we should do this in a way guaranteeing the full implementation of this protocol in the -- i think this will be the best service for citizens and business in northern ireland, but also across the u.k. and across the european union. francine: it is very difficult to forget the painful negotiations -- i think they are forever imprinted, may be scarred in our minds. what you're telling me is that you will not rule out any change
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of accommodation or any protocol. joao: there are a number of ways and means to address it, and there are many issues we can address. but that is within the framework of this protocol, and the framework of the agreement. we have been talking -- i am reminded that the deputy first minister in northern ireland has been involved in the works of what we call the joint committee, which is a party that oversees the implementation of the withdrawal agreement and the protocol in northern ireland, so there are ways and means for seeing specialized committees and discussions, very determined discussions. all of that will commit -- all of that will continue and we are more than committed to that to make sure that it really delivers what it is supposed to deliver, which is full support and full protection for the good friday agreement, the belfast agreement, which is of course critical for civility in northern ireland, to which we are absolutely committed.
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francine: ambassador, thank you so much for your time today. we will have plenty more of course on the vaccine, and plenty more on northern ireland and the article 16 controversy. also, this week's edition of "bloomberg businessweek" is asking if europe is killing its financial center. the city of london is at the mercy of the brexit tug-of-war. we will talk in the next hour about brexit and finance -- and of course gamestop. tom keene joins me out of new york. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: end of an era. jeff bezos will step down as amazon chief executive. he'll be replaced by andy jassy, the head of the company's cloud computing unit. "whatever it takes" is back. former ecb president mario draghi will be asked to form a new italian government and steer the economy out of crisis. and global stocks extend the rally, this on optimism over stimulus in the u.s., earnings, and fading concerns about volatile retail trading. good morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." tom and francine from london and new york. we have so much news to cover. italian politics has been all over this story. tom: i bet you have. francine: remember the druggie guesses about whether he is dovish? i think that is back. about the recovery. ," can you imagine the first press conference with the italian press? one thing i think is fascinating that i think everybody knows
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