bid. amid higher yield, the weak dollar bet is in retreat. the gamestop squeeze is in continue to treat. whatever it takes to salvage italy. draghi to the rescue. the economy is depressed at 20 plus years and it is without question the most robust return on capital in modern business history. jeff bezos on invention first and then shareholder return. amazon employees 1.3 million bodies. good morning everyone, this is bloomberg surveillance. i guess we are waiting for a draghi appearance, we saw this with mr. monty, some guests have said it's not a redux of the technocracy, if that's not the case, what is it we are

witnessing? francine: it could be actually. a lot of guests do not want to talk parallels because it didn't go as well as expected. i have to say this is anything but a roman holiday. mario draghi currently the presidential palace dressing live pictures of the italian flag with the european flag in the presidential republic flag. we are expecting them to give some statements after he's met the president. likely we are from mario draghi. i guess the next hurdle is mario draghi to be approved by parliament. thanks -- frankly it's not as done a deal after the statements we could have shortly. >> we will get some pageantry here perhaps, i assume he is speaking in italian. francine lacqua will be on-site to translate. they are not to ask me to do it. futures up 15, dow futures up

15. lots to talk about through the morning. right now your first word news. >> it is the biggest management change at amazon since jeff founded the company in his garage more than 25 years ago. he will step down as ceo from the world's largest online retailer in the third quarter. his replacement will be andy jassy who runs amazon's cloud computing unit. that's a fast-growing division that has changed the way companies by the technology that powers their businesses. he will become executive chairman. senate democrats have moved to put president biden stimulus plan on a fast track. that increase the chances on a party line vote. lawmakers open debate on a budget resolution for the 2021 fiscal year. it's a move that would clear the way for the stimulus package to pass with a simple majority while the 60 vote threshold --

rather than the 60 vote threshold needed. the public effort to deal with the to malt involving gamestop shares and robinhood. the treasury secretary summoned financial leaders to discuss the market volatility. she wants to know if recent activity are consistent with investor protection and fair and efficient markets. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. tom: i want to bring you some amazon. michael levine at pivotal goes through 4650 on some of the parts evaluation on amazon. that is a huge deal. cannot say enough about that. adding up what he sees. he goes from the 3300 level up to 2650 which is a real step up to say the least. the rest of the data, futures up

15, a full stick on the equity market. 24.47 really gets us away from the thanks of the short squeeze. the dollar stronger this morning. >> we saw what happened with the volatility that brought is subsiding. amazon to vodafone, the strong results giving a lift to global stock markets. but also that added stability with italian stocks and bonds surging after mario draghi currently meeting with the president of italy. and then oil, a 55.08. tom: the michael levine call, 30% plus move on amazon. joining us is benjamin. he writes beautiful intelligent lengthy terse notes on central bank policy. he will weigh in on gamestop.

how did you do on gamestop? >> it was a good trade. it was a pretty amazing move. tom: dying to talk to you because sony people are speculating about central bank accommodations. the unintended consequences of easy money. can you link jay powell to the viscosity of money that gets us to a gamestop? >> that linkage is interesting. on one end you could say there's market liquidity and people are enticed by that risk. but i've also looked at this gamestop as well as the amc, markets are looking and continue to look at what happens after the pandemic actually ends. what will valuations look like for companies like gamestop and amc. but we are in financial conditions that are really

loose. volatility in some of these things i think in continue. >> i guess it's a new form of trading as well. chair yellen will sit down and try to get the rules of the road forward going. i just want to go back to what you do best which is take all of the theory mumbo-jumbo and turn it into what it means for our listeners. does this gross accommodation we've had in a natural disaster, in a crisis, does it have profound destabilizing consequences? ben: it could be. at the end of the day people are positioning based upon the gross accommodation and they position themselves because is gets into the economy sets up. and for trajectory of interest rates. there's definitely possible tension here as we go through

this pandemic and hopefully it has ended. money is flowing. it's a combination of extrapolating that money to the economy that leads to this volatility. >> inflation in europe was pretty strong today. stronger than economists expected. is that something that makes you change what we will see in terms of the reflationary trade. ben: since last year, the u.s. had this. that's that reflationary impact. the reflationary will continue now. but because inflation or --

just like we've seen in the u.s.. based on the effect of cpi based on last year shut off. it comes down, we may get that. i don't think we will get that in europe. francine: when do we know whether this is a real inflation , are we importing inflation from china? ben: that is the challenge here. we are really not importing yet out of china. they are moving slowly out. it's really a demand situation. at the same time the energy markets responding to the reduction, i think that's what's

driving inflation. headline inflation will be higher or i don't think we will see more significant pressure higher given the technicalities. tom: i'm good ask a question i don't think i've asked in three years. how many rate hikes does the fed have until they have an effect on the american economy? ben: that's a fantastic question. let's figure it out here. if we step back and look at 2015 to 2017, we have the delayed lift off and if you incur mental steps and during that whole time , we've also seen reflationary drive in markets. i think that's a similar path we will see in the future that will not have necessarily impact.

above and beyond where we came to an 2018. we are getting a rate that would be maybe a percent higher than the neutral rate. right now we are well below the neutral rate at least estimated. there some time to go before the rate may happen. nonetheless, yields can move and they can move that forward. that has to be watched. the buffaloes from the previous crisis. that does affect housing. >> getting a good update here in the central bank. it's jobs week for the labor economy front and center. i've driven by it.

francine: you get 100 points for perfect pronunciation. we understand the president is eating with mario draghi and then they have a set up with the italian flag is always flanked by the european flag and we are inspecting statements to understand what was agreed between the two gentlemen. tom: this is bloomberg. ♪ want to save hundreds on your wireless bill? with xfinity mobile you can. how about saving hundreds on the new samsung galaxy s21 ultra 5g? you can do that too. all on the most reliable network. sure thing! and with fast nationwide 5g included at no extra cost. we've got you covered. so join the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction. and get a new samsung galaxy starting at $17 a month. learn more at xfinitymobile.com

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tom: good morning everyone. francine lacqua in london and tom keene in new york. we are monitoring mario draghi.

we work and have emily wilkins translate the italian but she said her italian was worse than mine. it's that bad. waiting for any statements from mr. draghi. emily wilkins on capitol hill now. an open question with all the different stories. i think up in -- impeachment is down the february road. what's the story? emily: would everyone is still looking at is the stimulus. if biden is going to be able to come to some sort of agreement with republicans. that's looking a little bit less and less likely. yesterday, democratic leaders in congress, chuck schumer in nancy pelosi again to take steps to layout foundations for democrats to go it alone. we heard chuck schumer say if democrats do use this budget reconciliation process, it doesn't mean republicans can give their input or vote for the bill.

it seems like there is a pivot going on in the democrat party right now a little bit more towards that message. -- towards that method. tom: the senate majority leader making sure. is the president moving on that timeline? emily: biden had said this is something that needs to happen, that needs to be urgent. this is a campaign promises so it something he wants to get done soon after taking office. but bipartisanship was also a campaign promise for biden. he is weighing the two. one thing to keep in mind, the current supplemental unemployment insurance benefits run out and you do see bipartisan support for continuing those. how much or how long is up for debate but it's a deadline both sides are conscious of. francine: is there a particular republican faction you are watching out for any signs that could be closer to an agreement

the markets think? emily: so far the play has completely been within this group of 10 republican senators who met with biden earlier this week. they said they had a productive meeting but the white house also said they were pretty far apart. republican senators are pitching only one third of what the biden administration initially put forward. so we keep seeing very close hasn't -- close attention to them. they are not super pleased about what the democrats going forward with the budget reconciliation move. that would allow democrats to go it alone. at this point everyone is trying for a way to compromise but once again the overwhelming pressure is to get something done. tom: i've got about 10 more questions that will have to wait. many stories coming out of washington this morning. futures up 15, the vix in a stick. a different tape again because of yield movement and dollar

strength we see this morning. i've been looking forward to this. mr. bezos and the uniqueness, the distinctions of amazon, david kirkpatrick, we talk about the bezos effect. this is bloomberg. ♪ erg. ♪

tom: bloomberg surveillance from london looking at seattle, from new york as well.

brad stone of bloomberg, the definitive look on amazon. bezos walks through a one-way door, the walls have been harley -- have been compartmentalized. it's becoming difficult to be jeff bezos. his ownership of the post arguably cost amazon 10 billion, that contract with the pentagon. the most constrained resource, a web of conflicting business holdings at this time, that cannot be easily reconciled. we are thrilled to bring you david kirkpatrick, a game changing book on facebook like brad stone on amazon. flat-out definitive. david, the charge of amazon is robust look of never seen. the buildup, the ramp. what did jeff bezos not do to get this right?

david: thanks, tom. what did he not do? i would say he did not allow arrogance to overtake his good judgment perhaps. because what he has had through decades and decades is managerial brilliance, tremendous confidence, and a commitment to execution. and he never dropped that last piece because it is hard, he worked hard at it and amazon has been a machine from the beginning which pretty much nobody believes when it started would become the massive world dominating colossus that it is today, except him. tom: what is contained here is the management of normal human arrogance. we all have it. francine puts it in -- put me in my place on a daily basis.

how did jeff bezos in the process of customer first management normative -- first manage normative arrogance? david: he's become somewhat more arrogant in recent years it seems to me. but i think he managed it because in the classic sense of the entrepreneur is that first episode of "silicon valley," we are making the world better. he really did make the world better. he knew he could make the world better, he believed in the potential of the internet and he believed in it in such a way that he really knew how it could change people's lives for the better. i think there are a number of world altering entrepreneurs we benefited from in recent decades , but i don't think anyone has had a more consistently positive

impact on the lives of all of us then jeff bezos. i think he somehow knew he could and that was what motivated and drove him all these years. francine: how much do we know? was jeff bezos actually running this day today or did he have an overview? if he had an overview, than executive chair doesn't make a difference. david: i don't think it will make a huge difference. in recent years, i think he has been ramping down his day-to-day dramatically, although during the pandemic he came back in and became much more engaged in the minute of running the company. he had not been engaged in the my new show -- in the minutae. it takes multiple books to articulate the things he's done right. but one of the things was

bringing a fantastic management team and ensure the culture of the company embedded in their souls. francine: what will be the main changes of amazon five to 10 years? the millions of delivery drivers to get your packages on time and to your door. but what will it be, in the next five years? david: it is scary -- one thing that will change these it will become a more regulated entity because its scale is too big for government to allow unrestricted any longer. that's very apparent in the european union. with democrats controlling congress, more -- a more

regulated entity in the u.s. as well. i think government will be very careful not to regulate amazon too hard because they know the voters love amazon. so it will be bigger, it will be more effective, it will be in more parts of our lives. there will be more devices in our homes, i don't know where. francine: thank you so much for your insight, david kirkpatrick. we will talk also a lot more about the reddit phenomenon. coming up, we will speak with the former credit suisse chief executive. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is bloomberg

surveillance as we take you inside the official residence of the president of the italian republic. meeting with mario draghi, tapped to become italy's next prime minister. with a pretty broad mandate to steer them out of world -- recession and tackle covid. a very difficult situation. we will see what happens with that. tom: on real gdp a look at the pandemic crash and its bounce back and it's back to the level of growth of 1999, which is extraordinary. how much of the collapse of italy is due to it being a tourist magnet? francine: in part is that, but

also in part it's tough to attract investment because of the laws. i haven't found anyone in international markets that hasn't told us italians need structural reform which are difficult to pass and you have to have a strong head of state to pass that. covid has been hitting them badly in tourism but was also the first nation affected. but they also need to reform to get that new money. tom: we continue with david. i have been dying to ask you this everybody i've talked to is hugely disappointed in not the arrogance, but the tone and tone definiteness of all the robinhood people. they don't seem to understand they don't make the rules. what are the new rules for

robinhood? what are the new rules for financial innovation out of silicon valley? david: a wonderful tom keene question. interesting to think of it this way because yes, the ceo has stumbled repeatedly. i saw him last week on cnn with chris cuomo and i was astonished at how clumsy he was and then quite quickly after that interview was over seemed to have blatantly lied in the interview and plundered in other ways. the oddity is here is robinhood, a company established in order to a power the ordinary person conceptually and democratize investment. but the implication of that is by necessity, with more power to the ordinary people, you will have to have some more transparency. and yet another example of a silicon valley colossus that was not transparent even as it seems

to be committed to the very notion of a new societal shift. i would analogize it with facebook. tom: you know these players. the big boys, and do this. do you just assume the innovation incident caught -- in silicon valley gets co-opted by either direct wall street or indirect wall street in those office buildings outside the expressway? david: it is a much harder area for a silicon valley company to disrupt, but it can be done with deliberation and intelligence as dac -- as jack dorsey has shown. his business is somewhat different although it does overlap increasingly with robinhood's. i don't think you cannot navigate around regulatory infrastructure and the powerbrokers. you just have to do with more

intelligence and more deftness. jeff bezos came in up against incredible forces, nobody ever thought he could beat walmart at its own game, but with deliberation and clarity of thinking, bezos is not a hugely transparent guy either. but you can do it. i am not saying robinhood is going to fail long term, i think sadly they probably ultimately are strengthened even with their stumbles in the last few days. tom: -- francine: what exactly are you accusing them of doing? if we call it to the reddit roller coaster, what do you take issue with what happened? david: the reasons they had to raise money and suspend trading seemed increasingly as we talk about it more and more understandable. they simply had to meet the

demands of their business partners to cover the possible risks of counterparty risk. when the trades were closed later. he could have just barely clearly explain that from the beginning with a hands in the air i'm sorry, this is just the way it works and we will do everything we can to fix it. he kept saying regulatory requirements and we care about you but we won't tell you what's going on. francine: what should janet yellen do about it? david: it is another area. we need better regulatory, not so much financial regulatory, but the internet needs more oversight. we need better clarity of thinking about what happened with technology generally.

the area more challenges around cryptocurrency. that's going to be a more and more complex area that will require regulatory creativity not to suppress innovation, but reduce the risk for ordinary people and the risk of systemic disruption. i don't know what you should do about robinhood. unfortunately for now, she is just going to have to enforce the laws as they are because the world is not shift because you are buying shares online. it's great you can do it faster and cheaper, it is great you can do it in community and i think it is great people on reddit can use one another and collaborate and conspire to do things together. i don't think that is intrinsically wrong. francine: thank you so much, david kirkpatrick. always smart with his analysis.

let's get straight to the bloomberg first word news. >> amazon is on the verge of a new era. founder jeff bezos will step down as ceo of the world's largest online retailer in the third quarter. his replacement will be the head of amazon's cloud computing unit. for years he's been seen as a potential successor. jeff bezos will become executive chairman. the european union faces a big tax for its bungled rollout of the coronavirus vaccine. lockdowns mean the eu economy is operating at 95% of its pre-pandemic level. that's about $14 billion a week of lost output. unless it makes up ground, they will have to keep lockdowns in place while other major economies get back to work. the second test flight of the spacex new deep space vehicle ended in another fireball. one of the engines appeared not

to reignite during the landing attempt. the one in just the other would also ended in a crash landing. the stainless steel spaceship can carry missions to the moon and bars. the organizers of the delayed tokyo olympics have laid down the pandemic era law. they have rules governing how athletes move around and interact. olympians may be tested before and after they arrived in japan and at least every four days. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. tom: greatly appreciate that. stocks moving forward, futures up 14, dow futures up 25. on the pandemic, a series of stories we have on the pandemic. lauren will join us from johns hopkins university.

we will try to compress it down into a generous amount of time. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this is bloomberg surveillance. coming up later, william dudley. this is bloomberg. francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. we continue tracking the virus. bloomberg has developed a unique partnership with a leading authority on covid-19. johns hopkins has been at the forefront of the international response and every day we bring you insight from experts, public health and emergency preparedness. joining us as the johns hopkins associate professor of emergency medicine.

thank you for joining us. one of the big headlines for the u.k. is the u.k. approach which is delaying the second dose of the astrazeneca vaccine by 10 to 12 weeks still has 82% efficacy. how much of a good news is that? lauren: i think it is great news. we'd like to see clinical trials rollout and some of the data from these real world populations starting to get the dose, but that is where this is coming from. so knowing health care workers who have had covid and gone through that experience now have a strong immune responses promising to see. tom: i know there are moving averages of statistics, but what you've seen in the last number of days, are we rolling over to a better set of statistics? lauren: i think that is the hope. whenever we start to see the numbers drop, there is this concern people will start to relax their behaviors and take

precautions and then we will -- and stop taking precautions and then we will see that spike again. the hope is we are getting a hold on the virus. with the social distancing measures and a better understanding of masking as well as these vaccines rolling out. it is great to see over 100 million doses going into the population. that is going to start to make in in these statistics. tom: not that i want to create policy on here, but what is your guesstimate of when the age barrier goes down? when do we my gait -- migrate to 59 or 49? lauren: a lot of that depends on vaccine supply. as more and more vaccine comes online, you will see those numbers go down into the lower range -- the lower age ranges. and then we can start to see reopening activities that are

safe and still protective of the broad population. what we would like to see is that happen in the next couple of months here. that completely depends on vaccine rollout and uptake as well as people maintaining social distancing behaviors. francine: where does the next pandemic, from and are we better prepared for it? lauren: we have learned a lot of really hard lessons and i think we continue to learn them from this pandemic. i would say any time you can get lessons from experience and practice you will be better prepared. the next pandemic could come on the heels of this one and we have to make sure to take the time to nurse our health care system globally back to life and our economies back to life. that will be a real challenge. the next pandemic you could see looking similar to this one. you could see it looking like an

influenza virus or a non-respiratory pathogen and the key will be we have to remember how important global surveillance systems are, how important it is to look for the next pandemic. that might help us avoid the next pandemic. francine: are we looking for the next pandemic or are we to focus on stopping this one which is already a huge herculean task? lauren: it's a mix of both. a lot of people who their day-to-day job prior to covid-19 were looking at data, looking for that next pandemic, there are so many people whose jobs have reverted to just focusing on covid-19. we were worried about that during flu season and many natural disasters seasons globally that we wouldn't have the public health workforce to identify these -- the next pandemic or the global threat. building that workforce back up

will be hugely important. making sure that we are doing the work of looking at the specimens we are collecting. really improving data sharing which has been a huge problem globally in the pandemic. those of the next steps. i think it is just a matter of maintaining that even when we are working so hard to fight this pandemic that is at our doorstep. francine: thank you so much. be sure to check out vrusgo for the latest information. for an inside look at battling covid-19. coming up next week talk financials with the former credit suisse chief executive. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. read it favored stocks have crunched after gamestop's and others sparked frenzy. we are standing by with breaking

news. >> thank you for joining us. if there is anything to be learned in the last week and a half about this rush of retail into the market, what would that be? brady: thanks a lot for having me on. the most important lesson is we are seeing what technology is doing in terms of transforming the market. we have known this has been something changing over time, access to information, the ability to trade, empowering small investors is something that is real and changing the market which is very much a theme exos embraces. technology has changed things for good. >> we did see a lot of hedge funds get burned in this rush. do you think wall street is largely unprepared for all the ways technology is about to transform the industry?

brady: i think it's a good point. the power of technology we've seen in industry after industry and we will see that happening to financial markets and this episode is an example of that. i think industry after industry have underestimated the impact of technology on how business models change, on how it impacts markets and i think we will see pretty significant changes over time. >> for you, you are definitely looking as a former ceo of the major wall street bank and now looking to disrupt the major wall street bank, how do you compete when you have jp morgan on the other side spending more than $10 billion on technology? how do you carve a space for yourself in an atmosphere like that? brady: i think again when we look over the last 20 years we've seen industry after industry be impacted by the

adoption of new technology. i think it is hard to underestimate the power of that technology. what we've done is build an absolutely state-of-the-art technology platform and push that into every part of our business. we know there's been a lot of verticals and fintech's that have made an impact in specific businesses. our belief is there is the potential for a platform to really do the same thing. our aspiration, think of goldman sachs or morgan stanley but on an amazon.com type technology platform. using the data to provide great services to customers. obviously the large existing great businesses and strong franchises, we think harvesting that technology -- harnessing that technology will be powerful. >> already there is an amazon and there are a lot of worries

about that amazon getting into financial services. how do you create that on a smaller scale? brady: it's the same kind of concept. what we've done is built a state-of-the-art technology platform and then we are building businesses that are technology empowered themselves so we can provide different, better services to clients and then ultimately where the real power comes from is pulling that together so you can offer all your services to customers just exactly the way amazon -- it started by selling books and expanded to other areas and in the real power comes from the pack -- fact you can pull that together so customers do a lot of their business on amazon across a broad sweep of businesses. >> let's talk about the u.s. fintech market. news today they've agreed with chinese regulators for a new structure to put businesses into

a holding company. aunt is already so much bigger than we've seen so many of the big financial firms. how do you compete in the united states? i want to remind viewers at credit suisse, it's one of the biggest banks in the chinese market. how do you compete from here with what we are seeing in china? brady: i think it is a good point. a lot of us having a large technology abled up-and-coming business in financials will help with that is one we think is a really appropriate model and we think that will spread to other parts of the world, including the u.s.. what did they do, they harnessed technology. we think the same thing, of the same model should work here in the u.s. >> do you think these new regulations might level the

playing field a little bit for the u.s. competitors? brady: yeah. obviously we will see how it all works out in the end in terms of what the alteration to the business model will happen. they will still have a very powerful platform for now. ultimately, the leveling be the adoption of these modern technologies to the business? >> last question. you are launching an etf. what are the parameters of investment here? brady: we have launched, we have been very active for the last couple of years and our view is what's interesting about this is really becoming the market of choice for those companies of the future that are transforming businesses and markets to come to market. we think it's a very interesting

theme in terms of investing in the market overall. obviously that's something a lot of people have been doing. what we are trying to do is use an etf, allowing that access to the market. we think it's a very interesting instrument for smaller investors to participate. as you mentioned, these markets have been very active. markets, all markets have their booms and busts. we think about that, it's got a really important purpose. it is something -- >> we are going to have to leave you there but we hope to have you back again soon. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> there is excess credit, liquidity, band with enthusiasm. there will be many bubbles forming in markets. >> it's not the overall market. >> from a financial stability perspective, the system is robust. >> we have it in signals. >> the fed is very much keen on keeping rates. >> "bloomberg surveillance "bloomberg surveillance this is," -- this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: good morning, good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance" live. alongside tom and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom keene, a change of leadership on either side of the atlantic to talk about this morning. tom: