>> there is both excess credit the quiddity and endless enthusiasm and there will be many bubbles forming. >> the system is from a financial stability perspective, robust. >> the world does not shift just because you are buying shares online. >> markets are rewarding vaccination and strategies. >> there are a lot of people who cannot go back to work. >> it will take place in the shape of the recovery.

>> this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom: good morning. simulcast on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television across the state and worldwide, it is optimistic in the martins and i will not mince words, it is subtle, but this is a market that refuses to slow down. jonathon: equity market up by .2%. it has been a decent week after a big week of losses and a snapback that is backed up by better earnings, number one. the pandemic progress, two, and better economic data, three. and payrolls tomorrow and joblessness 30 minutes away. tom: a good adp report, and within the gloom of reality for the part of the american labor economy, we cede nonfarm

payrolls go to 50, 70, and 100,000. lisa: i think the biggest data point, the ism services, the unemployment figures that came in, the biggest gain since february of last year and raises the question whether we are getting an acceleration in even the hardest hit areas of the economy, even before we left the restrictions that we see. tom: let us start with you. what is your signal from the bond market? jonathon: it sticks the curve. there is an elephant on the front end of the curve, the federal reserve. two yield will do nothing. it will all be driven not just by supply, but what supply will achieve. higher growth, and better numbers, we are starting to see that a little bit, underestimating the united states' ability to snapback faster and we are seeing

evidence of that. tom: for those of you who slide into surveillance at 8:00, you need to get up earlier as you enjoy the next is. lisa: on the bond market. on the credit side you are seeing the recovery phase. apple is selling debt at nothing. they were able to sell 40 year bonds cheaply, but there is a question of whether safety is the risk. the idea that investment-grade bonds are considered safe dirt -- safer have lost and junk bonds have gained a percent and uc inflows continuing, the idea that we have foregone the default cycle. tom: one more question, i am looking at less or worse negative rates in europe, i look at the swiss 20 as a barometer and it has done better. do you see a final relief to

better negative numbers in europe? jonathon: unfortunately not, the policy rate is not going anywhere anytime soon. we are so early in recovery, let us face it. it has not started. there are doubts amongst the economics community on whether you can engineer a recovery in europe that will lead to higher rates. europe is looking like japan did 10 or 20 years ago. lisa: "blue -- tom: "bloomberg surveillance on radio and television, when we put together the show we were going to call it nerd police, but it got voted out. we have got to remember the basics of investing. we can do that with sebastian page. he is a geek and he does cross asset, multi-asset, and all of that, but his book, "beyond diversification," is critical and it is a number

one mistake people make when investing portfolios, amateurs and pros. i am honored to ask this question. what did you learn when you look at gamestop and the madness of the last six weeks? sebastian: you know, i have been thinking about your nexis, and i would like to take a shot at reconciling that. i think as an industry right now we are conflating two things and they are hard to separate, but we are conflating the effects of liquidity with investor sentiment, and we are talking a lot about froth, and that can lead to the failure of diversification when bubbles pop. what is really creating the froth? we are looking at over 25 indicators of investor sentiment, and some of them do not show exuberance whatsoever. cash holdings in equity mutual

funds, top 10% of the last 10 years. lots of cash being held in equity mutual funds. equity funds flows are negative, people are putting -- pulling money out. if we look at individual investors, and we often blame individual investors for the froth in the market. the surveys of individual investors when you asked them if they are bullish for the next six months or bearish, the spread between the people who are bullish and the people who are bearish on the abramowitz side, i do not want to get into the debate. jonathon: carry-on. sebastian: that spread is about 8%, so that is 8% more investors who are bullish over the next six months. it is not that high, it is close to historical data, same for

institutional investors you look at behavior indicators and institutional investors positioned risk on their portfolios. we are neutral between stocks and bonds. and you get something closer to neutral, so why all the froth? this is when we conflate liquidity and investor sentiment. we have had a 30% job in m1 money supply and 21 trillion in global festivals -- fiscal stimulus. a lot of the froth in localized bubbles is created by a flood of liquidity, perhaps a bit more than investor exuberance, per se. this is me taking a shot at reconciling the nexis. jonathon: a defendant -- a decent s -- effort you are welcome to try again. what are you are trying to do? sebastian: you would think stocks are expensive and you talk a lot about this on your

show, not necessarily on the relative basis, especially if you have global stocks. we are asset allocators and we end up neutral between stocks and bonds. our time horizon is six to 12 months, 18 months, and it is clear that you were talking about vaccination a few minutes ago. it is clear that the destination for this year is covid off, and the news of the vaccine has been positive development. it is a race against the mutations but we are moving towards covid off. as an investor, ask yourself what is the world going to look like in 12 months and there is $1 trillion in excess personal disposable income, it is k shaped, but there is pent-up demand for sure. why are we positioning portfolios as neutral? we are taking advantage of relative valuations. we are long small caps, we are

adding to credit and we are favoring bank loans. for the first time, a couple months ago, in 10 years we have been positive towards value versus growth. we still think you need to hold both styles. broadly speaking, it is neutral on a broad risk on-risk off basis and take advantage of the recovery traits. lisa: a lot there. i have to go to your attempt to resolve the nexus. you did a great job talking about liquidity versus sentiments. they stance is uncomfortable. with liquidity driving market action and sentiment catching up, if sentiment catches up people take the cash and they put it to work in buying a trip, plane ticket or buying the next gamestop item, there is a question of whether that causes the liquidity to go away. this talks about the fed dilemma, and at what point does

liquidity drive markets more than sentiment. are we getting to a point where we could see sentiment being an indicator if it turns too positive? sebastian: absolutely, and the rate in change has to go down, we cannot sustain 30% year-over-year jumps. and, sentiment is improving. and if it improves too much without earnings sustaining market returns, you are getting a very fragile situation. i think the key is to look at the usual, and this is an unprecedented environment. i promised myself i would say on credit i would not say unprecedented -- i would not say unprecedented but it is. it is not at this stage of the recovery, it is not expansion. it is earnings recovery and we are looking at plus 20%

expected. so, the way this fragility goes away is if earnings in 2021 deliver companies deliver on the earnings, and fundamentals increase. you could end up in a year where stock returns are flat or slightly down so the average stock is up because you get a broadening of the markets. another way of describing the recovery trade. that has to be sustained by earnings. right now financials are strong and the steepening of the yield curve. and, taxes are doing well. they generate massive cash flows. we need fundamentals to pick up over on dust pickup. jonathon: come back soon. the market right now up eight points on the s&p 500 advancing 2/10 of 1%. initial jobless claims in the united states of america claims the estimate of 830,000,

previously, 847. considering where we were 12 months ago, and the one -- in the wrong place. tom: adp is good and the tone of the jobs report is good. claims have not broken in. futures up 20. here's a list. jonathon: the risk, a marginal one. coming up, a republican congressman from kentucky, andy barr. ♪ >> with the first word news, president biden is vowing that he will not retreat on sending out $1400 checks as part of a stimulus package. the president doesn't -- told democrats that he is willing to tighten the eligibility. republicans have suggested making the checks and sending them to fewer people. this will be janet yellen's first public effort to address the turmoil involving games drop -- gamestop chairs -- shares.

she meets with financial regulators and she spoke to abc news. sec. yellen: we need to understand what happened before we go to action, but we are looking carefully. we need to make sure that financial markets are functioning properly, efficiently, and investors are protected. ritika: one of those regulators has said that they are seeking to identify potential misconduct and house republicans have voted to keep wyoming representative liz cheney in her leadership role. he turned back an effort to remove her for voting to impeach donald trump. house democrats are preparing to oust marjorie taylor greene from two committees for her incendiary statements. kevin mccarthy said he would take no action to punish her. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more

than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ h■ñsrú ■nga■■

>> a think the mistake would be if we take this opportunity and it is used to foist more

regulation on those that want greater access. i think that is directionally not the way of the world, the economy, or technology. i think it is really an open question, directionally, of what comes out of it. jonathon: patrick financed -- patrick henry there. good morning. a long time -- alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. futures and the equity market pushing up nine points. we are little more of .25%. in the fx market, euro-dollar a break reflate and we are cruising back at 1.1996. 1.1427 is the yield. tom: a bit up through the morning on equities. full disclosure, long ago and far away there was a set of repeated grandfathers called

henry clay clean, -- keene, and if you go to henry clay high school of lexington, kentucky, you have a full knowledge of the whigs success in the 19th century. andy barr is a member of the gop and joins us from the sixth congressional district and capital of the nation. you are more qualified to talk about this trap of your gop going the way of the whigs, what did the republicans do to not repeat henry clay's history. rep. barr: that is a great question and there is some soul-searching anytime you lose that presidential election, a party should do that. we are doing that, and i think we have come to a good place as of last night with our meeting to make sure that people under kickstand -- understand that people understand that the republican party is a diverse

tent. we had a large number of colleagues who voted to impeach the president and a large number against. but we recognize we need to attract a lot of people to the republican party because we are the party of free enterprise and limited government. as you see from this president it is a different story. tom: we have a president preaching bipartisanship, is your party too frugal and the republicans to austere for 2022? rep. barr: not at all. in fact, some would argue that we are not fisted -- fiscally responsible enough even the $4 trillion we borrowed in response the pandemic. the truth of the matter is that we over -- we have $1 trillion in unspent stimulus funds left and we are rushing to borrow another $2 trillion, which is why we are not seeing a lot bipartisanship. unfortunately the president is not working with republicans, they are using a budget

procedure to ram through this. tom: you guys use the same procedure. you use the same procedure last time around. rep. barr: we certainly did, and there is nothing inherently wrong, but if you want to be in -- be bipartisan about it you do not use the procedure and this president has said that he wants to be bipartisan, but when he had the opportunity to do it he has turned away from that. jonathon: we have to get through a lot of topics, not just stimulus but regulation. you are on the house committee of oversight and regulation. do you think sec. yellen needs to recruit -- recuse herself of this? rep. barr: i do not know, but what i want to see from the secretary is a little bit of caution and deliberation, and not a lot of overreaction. the broader markets are doing fine. obviously, there was volatility

in respect to reddit field trades on gamestop, amc, and other equities. that is as a result of the advents of zero cost trading and the democratize asian of democratization of the marketplace. we are learning a lot about zero cost trading, and the influx of day trading and what that means for their short positions. it means that short squeezes are possible and there is market discipline that will set in as professionals -- with professionals. on the other hand, i think a lot of the day traders and small investments -- investors are learning that fundamentals matter and earnings and valuations matter, and that on the downside of this rally, as investors get in too late and too far away from valuation

there is a risk associated with that. the market is actually working, but it is appropriate for the sec and congress to look if there have been any laws violated, but to me it does not look like any illegal activity and certainly does not look like any systemic risk. lisa: there is a larger debate about anonymity on social media and the ability of unknown actors to act manipulative lee and without oversight from regulators, potentially from within or without or outside of the country. how much is the direction of questioning going to go towards that issue? rep. barr: i think there will be questions about social media. there are questions about social media all the way around in terms of financial marketplaces, but also in the marketplace of ideas, and that is always appropriate for us to look at social media and the role of social media. i think the more information the better. people need to understand the

sources of the information, but at the end of the day, i believe democratization of capital and the advent of low cost or no cost trading platforms and more information is a good thing. it is not illegal to share ideas about the equity markets. tom: very quickly, i do not care about that. are we going to endure with another running of the kentucky derby may 1? rep. barr: we well. in fact, i talked to churchill downs, they are never going to do what they did last year and shut down the derby, and that is a good thing. as cochairman of the congressional horse caucus, we want the derby to be back, hopefully with spectators. jonathon: as a foreigner i am not sure if that caucus exists or not. is that a thing? rep. barr: no. there is a lot of venting that goes on in kentucky. -- betting that goes on in

kentucky and there is some speculative trading that we have seen. i love that a lot of these millenials are participating in the stock market and some people have said that millenials or more open to socialism, and it looks like many millenials are more interested in capitalism and that is a good thing. jonathon: i want to find out who is running the book on capitol hill for the republicans. andy barr, republican from kentucky. we have futures up and an important data point in five minutes. tom: it is so important out of the good adp report leading onto the jobs report. a good survey. lisa: i just have to point out that indeed the congressional horse caucus is an actual thing. congressman barr and paul tonko of new york. they are cochairing the congressional horse caucus.

tom: lisa is there with a mint julep in the hat. lisa: with your thigh high boots. jonathon: silence from keene. (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that and more in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design to help you to maintain comfortable, correct form. that means better results in less time. you can do an uncomfortable, old-fashioned crunch or an aerotrainer super crunch. turn regular planks into turbo planks without getting down on the floor. and there are over 20 exercises to choose from. incredible for improving flexibility and perfect for enhancing yoga and pilates. and safe for all fitness levels.

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jonathon: from new york city this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio. your economic data is coming out imminently ahead of that, futures higher, up eight or nine points. with your economic data, here is michael mckee. hello. michael: everyone is keeping an eye on jobless claims and the feeling is that we will get a big drop in jobless claims, and we do. 779 drops, low 800,000. the forecast was 830,000, better than people anticipated. the thing you have to keep in mind is that we are not out of the woods, and you and i will talk about this later. the airline announcements, american airlines, 13,000 job

cuts coming. united, 14,000 if they do not pass additional stimulus. this is a bit of good news going forward, that is a drop of 33,000 from the previous week's level, so we will keep an eye on how this is going. farm productivity was expected to fall and falls more than expected down 4.8%. the forecast was for a 3% gain as labor costs rose 6.8%. the productivity number is hard to interpret because layoffs and the incredible swings in gdp. we saw the big drop in the third quarter and productivity went way up, and now we have come down in terms of gdp and productivity. you have to dismiss that and look beyond it. jonathon: we have seen -- lisa: we have seen the payrolls go. is there a new velocity to the

pickup here? michael: more people are starting to put your forecasts out and incorporating the biggest data and that will affect people in their thinking. this is january and seasonal adjustment factors are big for january because normally we hire a lot of temporary retail workers, ups and amazon are hiring a lot of delivery people to get through the holiday season and lay them off in january. this year you may not see that with the covid economy, with the seasonal adjustment factor, we will add to job growth, that is the bantam on economists. lisa: 10-year yeilds are higher, to the highest level since march of last year, shooting up to 1.15%, holy cow, that is a lot of yield considering where we are. michael: if i had said that to five or 10 years ago. lisa: it would have been a

strange conversation. stocks near the session high. mike, how good is the report if you dig under the hood. i know you have talked about the fluctuations in the idea of how messy it is. can you give us a sense of what comfort people can take from this report that we are making progress? michael: we are making ongoing progress and that is good news. we could slip back, it gets an argument to janet yellen and joe biden, we are making progress. the thing to keep in mind is that with 779,000 jobless claims, that is above the highest point we got to during the great financial process and we are one year into the covid crisis. so, we are still seeing a labor market in a lot of trouble and needs a lot of help. we drop down to 17.8 million in continuing claims, but a lot of people have lengthy additional claims, 3 million on that and

that expires in march. there is an urgency to get something done and keep those people's heads above water. tom: are you on your way to tampa? michael: i will be here tomorrow. i will watch on tv. tom: very good. thank you very much. the jobs report. i am sorry, are we on a 2% watch on the 30 year bond? jonathon: let us get a board up and take a look. data is decent. i do not want to say in absolute terms because data is decent, relatively not, but it is better. we get a decent print tomorrow, i think you can continue the lift in the treasury market. we continue on vaccinating americans i think you can carry on getting the left. -- the lift. at some point we will talk about how we have added a lot of debt to this economy. how can it function with yields

going higher than where they are now? and that is important. tom: david peterson with us. one of the most interesting pedigrees in american economics. wesley and and on the comp -- wesleyan and in the combine at university of madison. if you rejiggered your xl spreadsheets, are you moving -- excel spreadsheets or are you moving -- are you looking for something else? >> there is a very high likelihood that there will be fiscal support coming through, and it is not clear how big it will be. the current administration is thinking about more targeted stimulus checks, and you have the republican party out with a program that is roughly $900 billion than 1.9. but there could be potentially some strain in the second quarter in the year. jonathon: what is the nature of

the shock that means the economy is changing directions quickly at any given time. the recovery is passed -- is fast. what is your read on that. dana: a lot of it has to do with the progression of the virus and how governments react, and how consumers react, but we are very constructive on the fact that we have this vaccine rollout, certainly, there have been estimates in terms of when there could be widespread availability of vaccines, and heard immunity that could mean we start seeing a pickup in the late spring, over the summer people get out there, travel, no to the beaches, and spend money and we have a strong second half of the year. again, it depends upon the virus and whether there are new strains that come online that cause renewed destruction to economic activities. lisa: based on the data and the speed of the recovery, do you

think that will be less economic scarring than expected three months ago? dana: certainly in january, the data is better than expected, some people are looking for a negative gdp -- gdp and maybe we will see 2% growth. certainly, there is still a lot of scope for scarring in the labor market and we still have roughly 9 million people who are not working. many people have left the labor market, especially older workers and women. older workers are not coming back, but with women we are concerned that they will have difficulty coming back, and certainly there will be industries that are never going to be the same, certainly because of the buyers. that means jobs are attached and there could still be scarring in the labor market even

growth looks better than expected. tom: can you apply stimulus to the people who really need the stimulus? dana: well, i do not work in the government, so hopefully there are mechanisms to make sure that certainly people who have experienced unemployment and also losses in income will get the stimulus checks, and people in the upper income are in that case shaped recovery --k-shaped recovery that have not experienced interruptions and are doing well, do not need it, but we need to get make sure -- make sure we get it to the people who need it. i'll that will work, i do not know. lisa: there is a composition of the stimulus at the heart of a heated debate, the idea of an efficiency of a $1400 check to americans making below a certain income versus funding to state and local government or the necessity for both. what is the most efficient use of funding and the greatest need right now? dana: i think the needs are

pretty myriad. you have the individual because they have had unemployment, or they have lost income, and you have state and local governments who have shouldered the burden of this in terms of testing, caring for people through the health care system, also loss of revenues and people have been unemployed and some people have been moving out of the city regions. so, it seems like there is trouble all around. and, it is not up to me to determine where the money goes, wherever there is pain, there is potential for dollars to go and to help the economy is either the household balance sheets or the coffers of state and local government. jonathon: great to catch up and see you. thank you. some economic data to pour over. 779, the previous number was 812. we should talk about the direction of travel. look at how the bond market

responds. if you could get the curve up, 2, 10, and 30. this is what the fed wants to see. the two-year yields will do nothing, and this reaction function of the fed, even if the economy of -- improves, we are not hiking rates and the two year will be pinned. that will be more destructive. tom: you will not hear this in the press conferences, but to allude to your point, central banks love when the market takes care of their heavy lifting, and that is clearly what we are seeing. jonathon: the market understands the reaction of the fed, that is important. lisa: we are looking at a key spread for financials widening out at the most since 2017 and we are seeing that continue. the question is at what point does it get too hot in the bond market gets ahead of where we want to be. jonathon: you will start to hear

noises from the fed quickly. the equity market up .2%. i know a man that had a year end at 38.50. chris joins me on bloomberg tv. tom: that is good, i like it. what is your view on 4000 spx? it is a big figure. jonathon: the valuations are there, the multiples expanded that is where the earnings growth comes from. where to the surprises come from? i'm going to come down pandemic, but it sounds boring, but that is what it is about. tom: a huge social response. you do not wear boots in the snowstorm. jonathon: what is it a response to? tom: the big boots. just for you today, on radio, the davos boots today. jonathon: i joined clubhouse the other day. tom: is lisa going to join? jonathon: i have no idea what to

do with it. if you were on, tell me on what earth i am in today with that. tom: go to francine. jonathon: she would know more than me. from new york, this is bloomberg. also available on clubhouse. no what i -- no idea what happens there. there you go. can we do that? that works. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> with the first news -- word news, i am ritika grouped up. he has told democrats that he will not back off on his plan to send $1400 checks to millions of americans. the president says he is open to tightening the illegibility and republicans have asked for checks to be smaller and for fewer people to get them.

mckinsey and company decided to settle claims stemming from the opioid epidemic. the consulting firm will pay 550 million dollars to end lawsuits by four dozen states. they claim that mckinsey helped fueled the opioid crisis by providing marketing rights to drugmakers -- makers. the largest smartphone chipmaker warned that it is struggling to meet demand, another sign that the semiconductor shortage is spreading. remote work has spurred demand for computers and combine has surged as people avoid public transport. that has led auto and electronic masers deck electronic makers to boost their production. consumers are considered equity rich meaning that there properties are worth more than their mortgage. it goes to 17.8 million. on the other hand, underwater homes, those worth less than the

mortgage are over 10% in the south and midwest. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> small businesses around the country, so many of them have

closed. they are the lifeblood of their communities, and they really need help to make it to the other side, and to continue offering the jobs that are so important to so many americans. tom: good morning, bloomberg surveillance. secretary yellen speaking of the need at the state and local level. take a snapshot into primaries and then onto a november election for the mayor of the city of new york. bill poppa tone not only has a magical name in the heritage of the great city, but far more his public service and law enforcement in new york and he joins us this morning for comments here and also worldwide on the state of our politics and law enforcement. bill, you would be a change agent as mayor, what would be your first task? bill: to bring back public

safety. without public safety we have no business, economy, tourism, unsafe schools and a new york city like we have right now, completely in chaos with no direction. public safety is the building block for everything new york city. tom: how do you take your public safety message across the cultures and politics of the boroughs? bill: conversation, face-to-face meetings with legitimate community leaders who want what is best for the constituents and community members, getting the police and the community together and not leaving the room until there are real solutions. it is not about painting streets are fancy slogans, it is about real dialogue and answers. lisa: two republicans running for the mayoral office. how much do you think this helps or hurts you given the former president in the region? bill: before the primary i am sure we see a few more

candidates. i am not sure if it helps or hurts me, but my message stays the same. it is about new yorkers. as far as the republicans and the president, that is up to me to get my message out and that is far different from those running on the democratic side want to continue the same policies. i have to get my message out and make it clear to everyone. lisa: what is your message and how to regain financial stability given the incredible hit and deficit? bill: first we have to open up small businesses, they have been decimated by the policies of the governor and the mayor. we have to open it up safely, there is a path to doing it safely. we have to open up venues, broadway, and our sporting events. you have to get the mta back on track. you have to invest infrastructure. the more people coming into the city and the more the city will rebound quicker. tom: i am fascinated how a republican message rebuilds

across the boroughs of this great city. i am going to pick on staten island and you know better than me the map of the city. at the margin, how do you fight the battle to get a larger republican vote, what do you need from elite republicans to make that story work? bill: support from elite republicans and the republican in new york. they need to step up and stand behind their candidates. they have to make a clear and smart decision on who the candidate will be and if that person has the right message. my campaign has the right message and i know i am the right person. the party needs to get behind me and behind my message and make it clear to new york that this is the path we need to travel. tom: we are messaging republicans around the nation, rightly divided from the six district of kentucky. i am going to call trumpism and

less trumpism. how do you less four years of the republican experiment into how you campaign in new york city? bill: i think you have to look at the policies that the president put in place that were successful and show the people how those policies worked and helped people in new york city, and how they can continue to help people. you have to get past a lot of the misinformation that was put out by certain media outlets and that comes down to face-to-face conversation. lisa: are you blaming media outlets and saying that basically, -- build on that, what are you saying in respect to that? bill: i think a lot of media outlets put out misinformation during the president's four year term designed to divide, and i think that has trickled down to our governor and mayor as well. that is why we are in the situation we are in. lisa: do you think that

republican support of cities like new york has been sufficient to help the region get out of the hoel -- hole it is in? bill: no, we need more support, from both parties, but particularly the republican party to say this is the pathway to rebuild. they need to be more forceful. tom: one final question. you pulled off the upset of the decade. how do you work with governor cuomo? bill: i sit down with the governor and we start with a clean state desolate. i will be a different mayor then bill de blasio. we will have a clean slate and i will make my point to the governor that without new york city there is new york state, so if the governor has political further aspirations he has to help me rebuild the city. tom: thank you so much, running as a republican as a mayor and of course, many candidates heating up for those of you not following the race. a spirited conversation.

lisa: there is a big debate not just about new york city, but about the coastal cities and how do you rebuild areas that have gotten decimated in the question of what is the office market going to be going forward and how do we keep the tax base and high tax states and a time where places like florida and texas are learning businesses away, and these will be pivotal conversations for anyone who takes the helm and it comes at a key time. tom: futures up 10 and i will say hello for the dailies, it is a good take. lisa: it comes on the back of real good economic data. jobless claims coming in much less than expected, that it raises a question of whether we are getting enough speed, enough critical speed to get the other side. tom: everyone can agree with bill peptone, what we see with small business in the city is appalling. lisa: there is a story that manhattan purchases of homes

actually skyrocketed in the month of january at the fastest pace -- pace in a long time. you sought double where we were according to douglas ellman and samuel miller. tom: low rates priced down, but that is not the small business that bill was talking about. let me do a data check to move us on through this important day. claims we saw a better than good number with a nice revision. futures up 10 and 59. the vix, 24.25 has come in with a vengeance in the last four hours. i believe that is a new low for the volatility index showing the market. abramowitz with her foot on the two year yield. 10-year yeild 1.15%. i am on the 2% watch. we are not there yet. we know that the dollar is --

the dollar is strong and the euro is we go. -- weaker. 1.1986. stay with us on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. good morning. ♪

jonathon: from new york city and our audience world -- worldwide. this is "the countdown to the open" and it starts with 30 minutes ago. equity futures positive nine points and we advance .2%. we begin with the big issue, a turning point the pandemic, top concern cases. >> it is really a battle between vaccinations and permutations. >> the market wants a steady hand on the wheel. >> we are looking at moderna, pfizer, johnson & johnson. >> that should lead to a better economic backdrop. >> that should boost both economy and markets. >> vaccinations are obviously key for markets. >> cobit as our biggest challenge. >> the second half of this year is really depe