francine: u.s. stocks hit a record high. much attention turns to january jobs numbers and the labor market. and bitcoin struggles to expand its record-breaking rally. we will speak to a crypto finance company about the future of bitcoin. good morning, everyone. happy friday. we have made it to friday.

it is the last rest before the weekend, and we made it to u.s. jobs. today, we have had better-than-expected numbers, and that has given a little bit of a lift to the u.s. it is filtering through to europe. now, stocks are rising. it has to do with earnings, a possible stimulus package in the u.s., and treasury pretty much steady. we talked about it all day yesterday. finally, crude oil advancing, gold pretty much steady after thursday's decline. now let's get to the bloomberg first word news. here is leigh-ann gerrans. hi, leigh-ann. leigh-ann: good morning, francine. treasury secretary janet yellen convened a meeting of officials about the recent volatility, with the securities and exchange commission agreeing to issue a timely study of recent events after its recent surge, gamestop has capped another day of heavy

losses, pushing its collapse past 80% this week. the u.k. will require travelers from coronavirus hotspots to quarantine, starting october 8 15. arrivals -- february 15. arrivals we need to isolate for 10 days. the news comes amid confusion over how soon the government would implement the policy. german chancellor angela merkel says it is refusing to ease the lockdown of europe's largest economy. the pandemic is showing signs of easing, but the longtime leaders as the nation must be very careful in this last meeting -- in this last stretch. the chancellor is meeting with others soon. the national football league is hoping to avoid any large-scale outbreaks at the super bowl appeared overall attendance has been capped at 25,000, a record low for football's biggest

event. the league has given tickets to 7500 vaccinated health care workers. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg @quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: leigh-ann, thank you so much. now, european stocks trading higher as global equities hit all-time highs, and hopes for a similar recovery on the economic side. it is also, of course, jobs day in the u.s. we have laura cooper from our mliv team. laura, thank you so much. it is friday. we have had a lot of earnings, we are waiting for the stimulus, and the course we want to know about jobs. what is the market focusing on? laura: the reason we saw u.s. equities plunge record highs yesterday was on account of the upbeat earnings, and that is spilling over into the session.

ultimately, you know, markets are focused on the continued recovery prospects. we did have central banks like the boe's say yesterday they are optimistic about the vaccine rule out. but i think -- rollout. but i think, like you mentioned, it is all about payroll, and will we start to see this upturn after the december offside decline really caught markets off guard? francine: laura, yesterday we heard quite a bit about the -- is that where it is happening, or is it also earnings? laura: there is a potential we could see these higher yields again that weigh into global equities. but i think so long that that rise in yield is being supported by the recovery process, we do have inflation expectations continuing to climb higher. i think the fed and other central banks will largely overlook that, and they will shift focus.

really, powell has stated as much, that he is going to focus on ensuring that they do not fall short of the recovery in terms of the met backdrop -- the employment backdrop. francine: i know you have given us great stories, what has happened with red and that of course the retail movement there. we heard from janet yellen yesterday saying there is no systematic concern. could anything else come up? laura: certainly, she wants to make sure that markets are functioning appropriately, and ultimately that these retail investors are protected, so while they do not see any signs of systemic risk now, the financial market system is resilient, they are going to investigate this further, and i think that is because the retail stores has really proven itself to be quite dominic, and i do not think that is necessarily this one off trend. if anything, i think we are going to potentially see regulator scrutiny continue in this particular space. francine: laura, thank you so

much, laura cooper from our bloomberg mliv team. i would urge everyone to go out and check out our blog, it is very cool. you just put mliv, or find it on our website. how can companies most affected by the economic upheaval of the last 12 months grow back stronger? my next guest has more than 30 years of experience as a turnaround expert. this is bloomberg. ♪ when you switch to xfinity mobile, you're choosing to get connected to the most reliable network nationwide, now with 5g included. discover how to save up to $300 a year with shared data starting at $15 a month, or get the lowest price for one line of unlimited. come into your local xfinity store to make the most of your mobile experience. you can shop the latest phones, bring your own device, or trade in for extra savings. stop in or book an appointment to shop safely with peace of mind at your local xfinity store.

francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am francine lacqua here in london. now, a year on since the start of the covid-19 pandemic, about

19.5 trillion dollars has been added to global debt, but heavy spending has meant survival for many companies which would have otherwise collapsed. the arrival of these zombie companies is especially hard in europe. dani burger has more. dani: everyone from london's iconic carnaby street to movies and airlines, companies that have been hammered by the pandemic are struggling. i have not made enough money to pay off their debt. it is these criteria that most experts used to define a zombie company. that is, firms that are just limping along, surviving only on government aid and cheap debt. in the u.k. alone, half a million companies are in distress. i spoke about this with julie palmer. julie: if you compare it with previous recessions, this is not a recession, it is a complete lockdown, so businesses have not been able to operate. they have not been treated like

normal, so estimates at the moment between 100,000 to one million u.k. businesses, maybe a risk of failure and support measures have fallen away. dani: now zombie firms are everywhere you look. they have had to raise more money in order to stay alive. zombies aren't just in the movies anymore. they have also overtaken the theaters. cineworld is wrapped with nearly a billion dollars of debt. julie: since the financial crisis in 2008, when we have been hearing a lot of these zombie companies, it has almost titled the recovery. businesses should be allowed to fail could they have not failed because the interest rates have been low, the banks have been supportive, and the government has supported businesses through things like differing liabilities.

dani: cheap debt and government aid may have staved off a flood of bankruptcies, but these kinds of companies can drive down the economy, as asset stays tied up in unproductive and barely a lives on be firms -- barely alive zombie firms. francine: now, companies affected by the economic upheaval in the last 12 month have actually grown back stronger. my next guest has 30 years of experience as a turnaround expert. he heads up the emea at alixpartners i am very pleased to be joined by stefan of arson, global vice chair and emea chair -- stefano aversa, global vice chair and emea chair at alixpartners. how do you view the fact that in a couple of weeks and months

come a lot of furlough programs in europe will be taken away? what will we be left with? how many companies will no longer be viable? stefano: yes, i do say, as your colleagues said, that it has been a very unusual, to say the least, year in 2020. the restructuring of the debt has been 116% higher than the year before, and this is worldwide. if you look at the differences between europe and u.s., europe 93%, u.s. went after 33%, talking about 423 billion of debt restructuring in the world, as of which only europe really went into a lockdown, almost

from a physical point of view but also from a restructuring, financial point of view, because of the protection, is what americans call the kicking the can down the road. for what we have been seeing in europe, we have seen happening, as often is the case come in the longer period in the next couple of years in europe. francine: stefano, is it healthy companies that are, you know, going bankrupt or researcher because of the pandemic, or is it companies that would have not survived anyway, it would have just taken longer to get there? stefano: it would be more the second case. companies that were struggling before and that were limping around and have been put into the debt in kind of a frozen state, but now they will not be able to survive after that, and,

to some extent, this is the better cleaning that did not happen and happen that every crisis. this crisis has been very unusual, because it has been very intense and very abrupt, and therefore, we will see a lot of good companies, which, yes, they will end up at the other side of the crisis, with more debt, but with a sound business. we do expect a pretty tough rebound, particularly in the second part of the year and entering 2022. francine: stefano, you are one of the most famous people in the world at having restructured at a difficult time. what are you worried most about? is it partly the ones we know, which is travel leisure, restaurant business, that you think we have not focused on enough that you think we'll have a very difficult time?

stefano: yes, everyone is focused on travel, hospitality, and leisure. obviously they have to restructure, like airlines, restaurants, hotels, and cruises, theaters, you mentioned some of them. i do think this sector will rebound, simply because, longer-term, the social, economic situation goes into that direction. people will want to go back and travel. people will want to spend more time outdoors and enjoying life. what is not going to be recorded the same way will be the business travel. we know that for sure now, and therefore, as you know, the airlines in particular has a significant part of the prophet connected to business travel, and that is not going to come back anytime soon.

so it would be different with covid. the energy, oil and gas, is another big hit. if you look at the u.s., actually globally come out of this 420 billion dollars, actually the largest one, one-fourth of that was in the energy sector. there is a business change in the energy, and really the push for renewal, also with the new administration in the u.s. and green deals in europe, and frankly, i do ask that a similar push, even if a delay in china will see a renewable taking over more and more space. so the oil and gas companies

that will move into that space, bp and others, none forgot working and pushing on the hydrogen, will have a new life. so i do think there will be a future. retail is another sector that has done an almost secular trend that will suffer, and lastly, you mentioned automotive. automotive was hit last year pretty hard, particularly in europe, with -5%. china already was higher than the year before. there was a fantastic rebound, and the u.s. is only seeing a rebound. francine: i mean, how much work are you expected to do in italy, given the possible restructuring and changes that we could see under the new draghi government? stefano: yeah, it's too early to say about the government.

there are a lot of hopes for draghi. what is viewed as, financially, the best person for the worst job, and he is famous for what he did in 2011 to he save the euro. he is the best person to save italy, but he has only two years. the italian prime minister, as you know, does not have the same power as the french president or the german chancellor or the u.k. premier. and lastly, he will need a pretty strong majority, which is not granted at the moment. and, so, assuming that the government will go forward, i think he will push much more on the investment side, and this is what the companies in italy will need. in italy, you have a lot of companies that are

undercapitalized, so not only they have a volatility of debt, which is actually available, but also having the possibility to increase their equity and consolidate. francine: thank you so much for all of the updates. some great outward. i think andrea bocelli, renaissance style. global vice chair and emea chair of alixpartners joining us today. coming up, a conversation with the moderna co-founder. he talks vaccines and public health challenges. this is bloomberg. ♪ s bloomberg. ♪ h■ñsrú ■nga■■

>> in this particular pandemic, certainly once you are afflicted and it was coming on, it was too late for sure. so i think that the steps suggested, especially given the lack of experience that people have, 100 years ago, people barely traveled, so the conditions are similar, and, yes, i think it was economic, self-preservation, getting the next vote, all sorts of things motivated, you know, political actors to do in no position, by

the way, in a period where global institutions are under unprecedented attack for their legitimacy and their usefulness. of course it was a perfect storm of conditions that allowed the virus to do a lot of harm. francine: did you ever dream of finding a vaccine so quickly in the midst of a global pandemic? noubar: no. the whole team that we have here as well as our companies are so focused on platforms as opposed to the output of the platform, that, interestingly, we find ourselves -- i sometimes like into people that we make instruments, and then there is, you know, people that are performers that play music on our instruments, and so because in this case, the instrument now all of a sudden enabled a form of music that is helping the world, we do not fantasize over

the music, we actually dream up what would be an instrument that would actually allow beautiful music? sorry to use an artistic analogy, but it really is our focus. we enable a platform out of which dozens and dozens of solutions come, and so, you know, when the pandemic came, for us, i remember is very well, january 21, my daughter's birthday, the first time i had a discussion with the prime minister himself, when he called me from europe. and i thought, "great, here is an opportunity to test our instrument, our platform, mrna, in a very rapid turnaround application." of course we had a public-health duty to respond, but we did not think, nine months from now, we will have a vaccine, 100 million people. that is a consequence. frankly, i think if we had thought about that, we probably would have gotten scared. we did not think much about

that. we just do every single step well, and we have a chance of getting there. francine: my interview there with the moderna co-founder and chairman noubar afeyan, and you can catch the full interview with "leaders with lacqua" next month. coming up, mario draghi on government debt to he also does not have a majority in parliament yet, so we will see what kind of government mario draghi can and will form. we will ask our next guest if mario draghi can put italy on the road to recovery. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london. let's get to the bloomberg first

word news with leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: the u.k. will require travelers from coronavirus hotspots to quarantine. starting on february 15, arrivals from countries on the u.k. travel list will need to isolate for 10 days in government approved accommodations. the news comes amid confusion over how soon the government would implement the policy that was announced last month. the u.s. house of representatives has voted to strip republican member marjorie taylor greene of her committee seat for embracing conspiracy theories and threats of violence against democrats. 11 republicans voted with the democrats. of the others, few defended her words, but some voted against setting a bad precedent. johnson & johnson is asking u.s. regulators to approve its experimental covid-19 vaccine for emergency use. if cleared, it would give the use eighth -- the usa third

vaccine. it would lead to many more doses becoming available. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: thank you so much. there are more than 500 miles between frankfurt, home of the european central bank, and rome. not just geographically, but in terms of policy and priorities as well. mario draghi out of retirement to lead italy through his latest crisis. with his style be as effective on home soil? >> regarding fiscal policy, fiscal policy, fiscal policy should become the main instrument. governments with fiscal space should act in an effective and

timely manner. so now it is high time for the fiscal policy to take charge. francine: during his time at the ecb, he was clear that he wanted fiscal policy to pick up more of the slack. we are well-versed in his monetary policy, but what will his fiscal policy actually look like? let's get the view of someone who spent almost 10 years leading one of italy's biggest companies. joining us now is paolo scaroni, now at rothschild. thank you for joining us. i know you speak to a number of politicians in italy and have a good pulse on the situation. what kind of government will mario draghi put in place? is it a government that will be a technocratic government? is it trying to follow politicians come and how hard will it be? paolo: first of all, i am

sure that there will be a draghi government. but also from the five-star movement. possibly the league will abstain, so a government will have the large majority. we are expecting mario draghi to reform the government which would be some technocrats but also politicians. they may be very powerful politicians if we support the government. francine: what is his main challenge? one is the economy, which he is more used to, the other is the vaccine rollout, which she has never had to deal with. what kind of people should he put in place, and where?

paolo: in terms of how to cope with the covid emergency, i think that maybe it will keep the minister we have today, just not to change in a difficult moment. this minister has been performing vigilance well. i believe that mario draghi might proceed to keep him in his job. he certainly has a stronghold on the economy. keeping the job for himself, as has been the case for mario monti a few years ago, or in this job as a technocrat because he is supposed to be the man who will draw the strategy on how italy will use the 220 billion euros. this is the key charge we have

in front of us because it needed to change. the country, and i'm sure mario draghi has all of the instruments to do that. francine: who do you see as minister of finance, and how important is that job? paolo: well, you see, i think ida -- mr. draghi himself keeps this job or a he would put in position a technocrat, somebody that he would trust. one person who has been named is mr. panetta, of the european union, a technocrat he has known during his long career. but a person he can trust, who would be aligned with his ideas of how to use the funds from the

european union. francine: what happens if mario draghi does not have parliamentary support to form a government? what is the likelihood of that? paolo: the likelihood of that, in my view, is close to zero. but it will matter according to the public what he said during the elections. this is why i think we will have a government because nobody wants elections right now in italy. elections may take possibly four months to have a government in place, and four months is too long for italy in this dramatic moment we are living with the pandemic. francine: when you look at the challenges ahead, there are a number of priorities. it is there a danger that all political parties are using

mario draghi to get the hard work done and will blame him for the hard work done for the people who lose their jobs because of restructuring and we go back to a political mess in italy? paolo: well, you know, in italian politics you never know what will happen. but i expect the draghi government to last until the end of this period. so let's say two years more, two long years more. so if this happens, it will be time to make a hard stop, but also what has been done, and what will happen in 2021 it is difficult to forecast. mr. draghi accepted the job in order to do something good for the country. francine: also a quick final

question, given that you still follow oil. i know after many years -- what do you make of opec-plus trying to clear the market? when do we go back to a more normal oil dynamic across the world? paolo: my impression is that consumption is picking up, and as a consequence of that, particularly saudi arabia, they need to cut them production to keep prices at the level which is reasonable for producers and reasonable for consumers. i am expect in oil prices to stay between $50 and $60 for all of 2021. that is my best forecast. i can see -- the fact that saudi arabia may cut production even if russia showed the determination with which saudi arabia wants prices at this

level, abnormally what saudi arabia wants is very relevant in the dynamic of oil prices. francine: paolo scaroni, thank you so much for joining us. coming up, we speak to the next co-founder, -- the nexo co-founder, antoni trenchev. that is coming up next, and this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london.

let's get to your bloomberg business flash leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: snap shares are down in late trading despite a jump in sales. the snapchat owner is warning of risk step advertising growth from changes to apple's stata -- apple's data collection rules. net jet has tripled in the past year but investors say gains are unsustainable. peloton says it cannot -- the bike firm has seen its first billion-dollar sales quarter but is warning about profit being squeezed as it tries to fix it supply issues. it currently says it is operating at longer than acceptable wait times, but it is investing $100 million in delivery over the next six months. bnp paribas reported with expected -- the french bank is warning that the client activity that helps drive earnings last

year it is unlikely to continue. bnp is signaling in outlook as the pendant continues to lock down large parts of europe. >> if we roll fixed-income into 22 anyone, it is not an to's of -- into 2021, it is not anticipated that it is to be reproduced. however, we anticipate that the market share that we were able to capture in 2020 will consolidate in 2021. leigh-ann: that is your bloomberg business flash. francine: let's focus on bitcoin's wild ride. the world's largest cryptocurrency is struggling to extend its record-breaking rally after failing to break through a key resistance level, after reached all-time high of $42,000 in early january. so what is next for the bitcoin roller coaster? joining us now is antoni trenchev, founder and director of nexo. what exactly is the role of

nexo? what is a crypto lender? >> a crypto lender is a financial institution that provides banking services to the lock chain space. our two main products are the crypto bank loans, meaning you can take out a loan, and stake that collateral. which has been great with the current bull run because you tap into the crypto wealth without having to sell crypto. and then the second product is the earned interest product, which in this low interest environment, where the bank of england this morning announces that we should break our sales for negative interest rates, we are in a position to pay up to 12% per year in interest. francine: i guess the concern is if you look at crypto-based companies, they have always struggled to bridge to the other side of banking services as a result of crypto and certainty that crypto uncertainty,

concerns of money laundering. how do you bridge this gap? antoni: we are a company that tries to do exactly that, to bridge this gap. we are from a traditional, regulated background. we have been in before the term has been coined. and it has been given easier, with signs of the department of the treasury, where banks can now customize bitcoin, with some traditional common is like paypal allowing exposure to crypto. the gap between the two is being bridged in a natural way, and there are on and off ramps to crypto and vice versa. it has been an incredible year. francine: do customers who leave deposits with you enjoy the same protection as high street? is there a government guarantee in place? antoni: not at this stage, although we are working on a

bank acquisition, two bank acquisitions, one in the u.s. and one in europe, which will bump up what investors have. our protection is that we have a business model that actually makes sense. we are deleveraging the system in terms of the loans that we extend are secured by 100%, so for you to take 50 k as a loan, somebody on the other side has put in collateral that is 100%, so double that, 100 k. and i would argue that it is a much better and more natural protection because the business model protects you, and it goes beyond the regulatory guarantee of just 100 k or 200 k, depending on where you are. it is a fundamentally sound business model, and the lack of mystery where the money is coming from, that gives you this protection. francine: the problem is that i guess it is so volatile, right?

the problem is stability. do you have worries at some point that you're less stable as a lender? because it uses collateral, but it quentin: from -- but bitcoin can go from 500,000 to 300,000 and without understanding what is behind it. antoni: one of the reasons it is volatile is why we are having this conversation right now. we have the deleveraging process, efficient mechanisms to ensure that the loan-to-value ratios remain as they should at all times. and we have been in the market since early 2018, which saw a year of bitcoin declining 86%, and we still managed to make money, and none of us as a company and our clients lost any money, so this is the strategy

-- this is the stress test in a way that i don't think traditional banks have been stress tested. francine: who leverages you? antoni: we are a global enterprise, and we operate in any jurisdiction apart from sanctioned companies, -- sanctioned countries. we are regulated as a financial institution. in estonia we have various consumer lending licenses. in the u.s., we are pending authorization by the fsa. it depends on the jurisdiction. in switzerland we are part of a self-regulatory organization. so it is quite an and ever from that. francine: i guess it is just -- i am trying to figure out the reserve requirements, because it is a very different business model then you have with other lenders. can you give us an indication? is it different country to country, how much you need in terms of reserve requirements,

or is it something that you go across the board? antoni: well, we don't have strict reserve requirements that you would have for the banking sector, like what you would traditionally have in place, but we have excess of liquidity assets and, you know that we have, and due to the under leveraging of the system, we have more than capital adequacy to exceed liabilities. but there are no strict rules as you would have been the banking sector, set in stone, and that the regulator would look at right now. francine: thank you so much for a wonderful conversation. to understand exactly what the crypto assets actually become. antoni trenchev, the cofounder and managing director of nexo. a bit of a crypto expert who helps me try to understand.

treasury secretary janet yellen, in recent the -- in regards to the reddit fueled stocks. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: what was the biggest thing you learned about leader

>> we need to understand deeply what happens before we go to action, but certainly we are looking carefully at these events. we really need to make sure what is in our financial markets are functioning properly, efficiently, and investors are protected. francine: that was u.s. treasury treasury secretary janet yellen on protecting investors. those comments come ahead of her meeting with ftc regulators to discuss events surrounding gamestop. dani burger, yellen says markets are resilient. could we see a lasting impact on markets over the past two weeks? dani: even if there is not this huge contagion effect or if the market was not resilient as janet yellen says it is, one of the lasting things we will see is the staying power that retail investors have. even when robinhood was limiting

how many people could trade or rather how many shares they could buy, we still saw more and more people downloading robinhood, trading on them. i should say it is not even just in the u.s. the number of u.k. investors who were downloading and spending money on these retail brokerage accounts -- that has equally skyrocketed, especially among the age group, the white line, the 18 to 29-year-olds. what impact does that have on the market? that is more of a tricky one to dissect. one thing that has been extremely clhis is having an impact on the options market. a volume in options is incredibly high to the extent that for every 10 normal cash shares that are traded, there are 12 options being traded. usually there are way more options being traded than cash shares, but that has been completely flipped on its head over the past few months. in this past week -- and this past week on the increase that. if you participate in an option

market, clearly this is going to change things for you, but from here out how it affects hedge funds and that sort of thing, that is being highly debated because is this a flash in the pan, or are we going to see more gamestops here on out? francine: now that gamestop has fallen so much, who is left holding the bag? "holding the bag" by the way, is such a british american expression. like falling goods are worthless stocks. dani: i guess it depends on what kind of bag it is come if you want. i guess holding the bag, still holding onto gamestop and losing a lot of money. it is hard to know exactly, but there surely are a lot of retail investors here who have lost an incredible amount of money. you hope the money they spent on it, debuted as camping money, perhaps didn't mind if they lose, but if you look at the reddit message boards, you have people trying to almost one-up

themselves, saying i lost $500, well, i lost, $25,000. francine: dani burger with the latest on what we saw with reddit. bloomberg surveillance continues in the next hour. tom keene joins me out of new york. u.s. jobs, we will look at that. a number of other things that we are watching, vaccines, with j&j applying for use of its vaccine in the u.s. we look at the vaccines in the e.u., and looking across the board at better than expected earnings. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: u.s. stocks hit a

record high. market tension turns to january's jobs numbers and signs of a healing labor market. janet yellen says market infrastructure was resilient during the gamestop frenzy. esther george tells bloomberg vigilance is key. and bitcoin struggles to extend its record-breaking rally. reddit favorite -- reddit favorites like gamestop -- good morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london, tom keene in new york. we had quite a lot of good news in terms of earnings. do you know that peloton is running out of bikes? tom: yes. francine: i know you and i don't use them, but they are popular. tom: no. this has been part of it. took one to capri but brought it back with him. this forward -- this ford mo