advance and advance again on better news. brent-- crude under 60 a barrel. president biden once in america of "full employment" but yellen found slack in the economy. she finds slack in this pandemic economy, we will go with that headline data at 8:38 september 11, 2001 absolutely happened, and still a first-term congresswoman is topped off budget and education. an all-nighter on the senate floor. coffee was served and they are going home in the early morning of washington. the democrats move ahead on stimulus. bloomberg surveillance from london and new york. the news flows were extraordinary. we are not talking -- it is a votes of rama -- vote a rama.

you are going to do a 10 day quarantine in london where other nations do a four day or whatever. what is the draconian nature? francine: i want to go back to the stimulus because it is actually interesting. on quarantine, that u.k. is doing something that you see with countries with new zealand or australia which says if you come from specific countries, other countries where we found variants, you can come in to the country, they put you in the hotel for 14 days -- 10 days and we monitor you. this is basically just the only way that they think that they mitigate the concern about not getting enough traffic while at the same time making sure that the rest of the population is safe from various variants. the other thing that they are working on is to get people past

for touchpad sports, -- passports. tom: that is percolating here as well. i have a second shot coming out in eight days. francine: tom, going on holiday. tom: senator schumer and vice president harris making key votes. ritika: a 15 hour session in the senate ended with lawmakers adopting a budget blueprint for the stimulus plan. the vote was 51-50 with kamala harris raking her first tie. the house will vote friday to adopt the plan, and that would allow democrats to approve the stimulus without republican support. the house has voted to strip marjorie taylor greene of her two committee seats for embracing conspiracy theories and violence against a democrats, 11 republicans voted with the majority.

greene said she disavowed her previous views. the u.k. will require travelers to quarantine starting february 15. arrivals from countries on the ban list will have to isolate in government approved accommodation. authorities are seeking bids from hotels near airports and ports. sunday, super bowl in tampa presents an experiment in coronavirus immunity. the national football league is hoping to avoid any large-scale outbreaks. overall attendance has been capped at 25,000, a record low for the biggest event. the league gave tickets to 7500 vaccinated health care workers. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. tom: thank you so much. i want to make clear that we saw left -- lyft on a good futures

market about 40 minutes ago, futures up 12 and up 19 new highs. dow futures up 141. i am still not in the market. nasdaq does a nice move. the vix 21.72. as we get closer to 9:30, you will see the vix make gyrations and i wonder if we will see a symbol as well. we have some other, brent crude, $59. that is a higher oil price, which gets us up to a range where you can see strategy by oil. perchance, chevron will offer to buy noble midstream at $12.47. these are noble midstream partners which is an lp moving stuff around in the hydrocarbon business. the energy business percolates

with exxon and then downstream. i love saying that, the upstream, downstream, and midstream. francine: you do a great job with that. you know what i will call this rally? the everything rally, and that is how i would decide to move today. if you look at reset -- risk assets, higher. global stocks, if you look at some of the things we are seeing in the u.k., they are up. if you look at global equities, they are set for the best gains since november. oil nearing $60 a barrel, and that is a lot to do with earnings. earnings better than expected. if you look at oil away from several on, 56.80. opec tryi tom: giving us historical perspective is mark, running our washington operation for various

administrations and managing the editing for it as well. to combine the stimulus news and with the news of the president's lawyers turning down testimony on impeachment. do you assume that all of this action comes to a screaming halt while we go through a trial process in the coming days? marty: i do not assume, that is going to happen. it is monday starting midday as soon as the senate convenes they will get into the opening procedures of the trial. they will conduct no other business until this trial is completed. it will be a much quicker trial than the first one, maybe as long as a week or less, but the senate will conduct no other business while that is going on. tom: from there they pick it up and ram through with reconciliation, not a filibuster, the budget process. marty: they will need 50 votes

to get through the biden economic plan. the house may have to come back and approve some of the language changes in the bill. tom: they are all down in tampa bay. marty: how come we don't get to go? tom: francine mentioned it. i think abramowitz is already down there. marty: we are essential workers. francine: we are waiting for the passport vaccine. there is very little chance that the impeachment or donald trump gets convicted, so why go through with it? marty: that is a good question and many of the gop senators are saying just that, with their votes. they are taking the position that impeaching a ex-president is not constitutional, and they are just going to dismiss it on those grounds. so, the democrats feel that they need to hold this president to

account, and also they want to basically prevent donald trump from ever running again. it is a controversial move, and one that some people think is sort of against joe biden's move for unity, but it is going to happen. francine: on the stimulus package, it is a giant first step. they talked for 15 hours and it is a tiebreaker thanks to the vice president. is this how business is going to be run for the foreseeable future? marty: if you go back to 2009, this is how obamacare got past with no republican support. joe biden, i think genuinely would like to have republicans join it, his efforts to ring this country out of a recession, but, the sides are so divided here in the u.s. that it seems unlikely that he would get any republicans to come with him. tom: i want to go back to

something we talked about before. i said last night to someone, it feels like we are three months into the administration and it has been 2.5 weeks. seriously, is this a president at 78 years old that has a unique or original urgency because not -- he does not have the four year honeymoon, it is like go. marty: that is absolutely the case, and i what i -- and what i think has informed joe biden are the people around him who were there at the opening of the obama administration who remember that they tried to reach out to republicans and it slowed them down, and they never got the republicans to come along anyway. so, joe biden is taking their advice and going full speed ahead, as long as they have majorities in the house and senate they will push this through and the republicans, some of them may come along. tom: one more question.

the zeitgeist in the evening was nsc taking a look at a new iran policy. how complex is that? marty: extraordinarily. even though he is not part of the national security apparatus, john kerry is playing a key role. he negotiated the first iran deal and really understands this issue, and it is very complex because there are people who think that we should not move at all to try and revive that agreement, even within the administration. it is a very delicate balance that he is trying to walk. francine: how is the u.s. -- is a u.s. back in terms of foreign policy. in the last 15 years the u.s. was the big sheriff in town globally, are we going to see that again? marty: his speech laid out a return, as he said many times, the u.s. is back, but if you are

a foreign country, or dealing with the u.s., the experience of donald trump would give anyone pause, whether or not joe biden is a return to normalcy or just another blip before some other populist becomes president of the united states four years from now. i think those relationships will come back, but it will be not the same as it was before donald trump as president. francine: who is the biggest problem for the biden administration, china or russia? china -- alexey navalny was just exiled for 3.5 years, are they going to do anything about it? marty: they are thinking about further sanctions. but i do think that china is the short and long-term biggest challenge to the u.s., i do not thanks there is any question about that and i think that is the administration's view as

well. tom: you talk to washington all day on the phone to our team down there. for those of us in the blur of the markets, is washington still on lockdown is the view from the adams across lafayette park and outrage of fencing? marty: they have not taken those things down. tom: this is america? marty: it is an unfortunate thing, and in fact the capital security apparatus has said that they need to probably install permanent fencing around the capitol building for security, which is, in my view, would be a sad day. tom: that would barely describe it. martin with an update this morning. he will somehow get us to saturday as well. later today, heather will be with us with the council of economic advisors at the 9:00

hour. futures up 20. the vix, 21.75. you have an equity rally. this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that and more in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design to help you to maintain comfortable, correct form. that means better results in less time. you can do an uncomfortable, old-fashioned crunch or an aerotrainer super crunch. turn regular planks into turbo planks without getting down on the floor. and there are over 20 exercises to choose from. incredible for improving flexibility and perfect for enhancing yoga and pilates. and safe for all fitness levels. get gym results at home

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francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." the world's third biggest brewer fails in the fourth quarter and came in slightly below expectations and expects operating profits to grow between three to 10% in 2021. we will have plenty more on this and we are delighted to be joined by the chief executive. thank you so much for joining us. when you look at carlsberg and

the opportunities and pitfalls that covid created, what are the real opportunities. i know you are saying the outlook is uncertain because bars are reopening of that we could go back into lockdown. how do you see it changing your business? >> we had a lot of opportunities, but a business that is mainly about socializing is impacted by covid. we have seen the focus more on health and well-being, which means that are alcohol free beer range is doing extremely well. we grew by 11% in a covid year, so rest of the portfolio went down. specialities were up by 1%. at this point the severe headwinds due to covid, we also see opportunities. also, in 2020, we know that our

beer was resilient so we are confident for 2021. francine: valuations are cheap, will you be buying something? what is your m&a strategy? cees: even though there is a covid crisis, we were able to do m&a and the second half of the year. and you have seen that we have done a deal with breweries and bought a brewery in germany and the rights of a brand for our market. we will continue to look for opportunities in the m&a arena. tom: good morning to you. budweiser taking a different tack the super bowl, because of the pandemic and delicacies there. you are on the high ground, your relationship with liverpool and

sports is completely unprecedented including the i -- what you had to make last year. you have to do one even if they do not win. i want you to explain the future from beverages and beer with sports. it is a -- is it an era that is andyin -- ending or can it sustain? cees: i think it can, especially with our connection with the alcohol free offerings is a good combination in that respect. so, we are very proud of our long lasting relationship with liverpool, and we have been participating in the success last year, and we will continue to work together with them. tom: i really want to make it clear, there is no measurement of how unique this relationship is.

what is your branding strategy forward, given social media, technology, and the generational change of our messaging? cees: you mean in terms of liverpool or in general? tom: in general. how is carlsberg going to adapt to the new messaging? cees: we are doing that already. we are allocating much more of our money and investments towards social media where appropriate, and i think the next generation is much more interested in alcohol free beer, and also that is a connection that we can make with people, other generations and, going forward we see a huge opportunity in moving in that category. francine: thank you so much for joining us. the charles berg chief

executive. coming up later, we will be talking about airline travel, and the jetblue airways chief executive. that coming up at 2:00 p.m. in new york. this is bloomberg. ♪

ritika: this is "bloomberg surveillance." it is the biggest internet ipo

since uber. shares of kuaishou technology rose 161 percent. the company operates one of china's popular short video services. it brought in $400 in attracted hundreds of billions of dollars of orders. there is speculation that apple is seeking to develop its own electric car according to the wall street journal, kia motors is talking about a plan to assemble and apple designed car. japan's newspaper says that apple is an talk with six lawmakers. shares of gamestop are bouncing back. the retailer sells 42% yesterday, pushing it to collapse past 80%. retail trail -- traders using twitter and reddit are moving on to other sectors of the stock market such as small drugs developers. tom: equities and bonds,

currencies and commodities. once we get closer to 930, and i would want that to make a move with dow futures up 120 or 168. a persistent left that we see in equity markets. 10-year yeild 1.15%. brent crude up $160 -- $60 a barrel. gold under $1800 and see how it bounces back, 1806. francine, i cannot figure it out. help me. francine: let us call it the everything rally. that moves on the jobs data we are seeing and the risk assets moving higher on friday. does it move on the back of stimulus? probably if you look at the euro-dollar. in europe, that her earnings and expected. stocks including some of the other construction and travel.

i cannot figure it out given the quarantines but that is something that we can keep an eye on. and finally crude oil. continuing to track covid-19, andrew from johns hopkins with the school of public health and virologist. a couple of things going on. it is the quarantine of the u.k., whether they work and you put people in a hotel to make sure that any new variants do not actually come into the country and j&j with that one-shot vaccine applying for the vaccine emergency. we will see whether j&j vaccine is a game changer if it gets approved. we will have a full round up shortly. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance."

we continue to track the virus and bloomberg developed a neat partnership with a leading authority. johns hopkins has been at the forefront of the international response. every day we bring you insights from experts on public health and emergency preparedness. andrew, thank you so much for joining us today. every day, we worry about a new variant. how many have we identified, and how much do we know about more deadly they are -- how much more deadly they are, and if the vaccines work against them? andrew: it is a complicated question because we have the main variants that everyone talks about, and we are seeing other viruses that are unrelated to those acquiring some of the mutations that we think are important for these new variant spreads. and we are also seeing the

variants accumulate a few more mutations. right now it looks like there are five or six variants that i say are a concern because they possess mutations that we noble either affect transmission, or what effect the ability of antibodies -- what effect the ability -- would affect the ability of antibodies to bond to them. studies have looked about efficacy in these variants and most continue to have african c. it drops 8 -- efficacy. it drops with older strains, but the message with vaccines is you stay online, get online. when you are called, get online because these vaccines will reduce the spread. francine: we also seem to be hearing that a number of companies or countries are looking at combinations of their vaccine shots to see if they are

more exit -- effective. the latest news is russia talking to china. could it be the right way forward? andrew: absolutely. it takes clinical trials to make sure that you can go across vaccine platforms as efficiently as within platform boost strategies, but anything we can do that maximizes the number of vaccines that we could use together will help us move forward with the highest level of vaccine and immune protection, because that is what we need to get into the human population. francine: the only question that people want to know is how do we slow death and death rates. and, when life will turn back to normal. we have a vaccine tracker and it says it is seven point four years at today's rate. how much will the rates accelerate? andrew: this is the important

thing about models, they tell us where we might be going based on the data that we have right now, and vaccine trackers are really important to help us understand what might the best way to rule out a vaccine and how the rollout will change. it is clear that the vaccine trackers will be changing their projections as we continue to increase our manufacturing capacity, and something as simple as the j&j vaccine coming on the market could have a massive change in terms of the timeline in which we could get to a protected level of immunity in the population. francine: thank you so much. he also celebrates a birthday tomorrow, happy birthday in advance. for every one wanting to stay on top of covid-19 you can check out our u.s. go for more information. check out every day as we talk to experts about battling

covid-19. let us get to the first word news. ritika: the senate has cleared the way for democrats to pass president biden's stimulus plan without republican support if they want to. after 15 hours, the senate voted to adopt a budget blueprint for biden's plan. it was 51-50 the vice president breaking her first tie. the house will vote to approve the senate's language. janet yellen found that the stock and commodity markets remain resilient during the recent trading volatility after she met with the financial regulators. she called the meeting after surges in stock such as gamestop and some trading curbs on smaller retail investors. donald trump has refused a call for him to testify at his impeachment trial. how's impeachment managers issued the request and the former president's lawyers call it a public relations. and they

claim that the impeachment trial is unconstitutional. angela merkel warns that it is too early to ease the economy. she says she wants the economy to open without having to close it again soon. she and regional meters meet to decide the next step. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. francine: thank you so much. coming up on bloomberg radio, at 5:00 p.m. in new york, the focus on the stimulus package. this is bloomberg. ♪

ritika: this is "bloomberg surveillance." coming up later today, peter crom. this is bloomberg.

>> i think it is true, of course, that when you have ultra easy financing conditions for a long period of time, it can create incentive -- incentives and can cause some to miss price -- misprice risk in markets. the real priority is addressing the shock, and the federal reserve right now is far away from what i would say is achieving its object they have. francine: that was the kansas city fed president signaling the economy is not out of the woods yet with an exclusive interview with our global policy editor. gina martin adams joins us now. what will support equities in the next six months? gina: it is most likely going to be upward momentum and estimate

revision in 2021 and 2022. we have already priced what is the likely trajectory and the set balance sheets and the persistence zero level into 2023, and it is now about the rate of recovery. this is one of the underappreciated things that happened when all of a sudden we have seen significant and upward estimate revision emerge for 2021. it really was not celebrated, and we saw companies, and and beat expectations tremendously in the fourth quarter, what it does not matter. what seems to matter more is the estimate revision. that is going to be the big driver. francine: is there an underlying relief that if you are a chief executive you take worst-case scenarios so the covid-19 emerging with vaccines not working, is there a mismatch with the health crisis and what

chief executives are trying to price and? gina: i think that there is still they's immaturity or -- this immaturity or uncertainty on the part of ceos and the community, which is reflected in the numbers, so whenever a ceo comes up with positive commentary, there is a shock. there is this general view that we do not know where things will go and more than likely we will be stuck at home and will not see a strong acceleration and economic growth into 2021, still, we have a record number of ceos saying that things might be better than we were hoping and we are seeing stronger growth start to emerge and we get the manufacturing survey, the market manufacturing survey earlier this week. and they are saying that economic activity is improving, even though we are still stuck in some degree of lockdown and experiencing generally improving

conditions, that is a surprise. tom: i want to introduce my chart of the year, i am kidding. but, this is a good chart. this is one of the chart she would've studied in school back in the depression with a straight line in the standard force. there was some malaise here and there. what off of the guadalcanal low of 1942, it has been a straight line to prosperity. what has been the price to go to cash, or even worse, the price to stay in cash, and how much cash is out there in cash? gina: that is a good question. the price over the cast -- over the past decade has been a loss in income growth and earnings growth on your portfolio in the double digits. what we have seen the equity markets is probably the most extraordinary price activity relative to expectation.

particularly, the postwar period . the equity stream was extremely high 10 years in that began in 2009. at the same time, all we see is cash balance on the balance sheets continue to increase, so u.s. households own 40%, and that has been the case for the last 10 years. households have held onto the positions that they had 10 years ago, but net-net have barely added anything. tom: this is so important. gina has been brave in times of fear to stay in the market. does that cash that is out there literally put a bid under the market where we frame bear market down 18% or doom and gloom down 35%, that cannot happen because there is just so

much cash out there? gina: what it does is it sets a framework for the lack of an equity double billing. i do not know if that saves us from any sort of equity market decline, i think we did have a very precipitous decline in early 2020. a 20% crash in 2018. we have had these persistent, major corrections, and we are not seeing the demand for equities come back from the household side. what it does it it creates an imbalance between supply loan returns. so, supply in shares is limited and demand is limited. as long as supply is more limited than demand, that is why stocks go up. could that change? absolutely. when you have households sitting on cash you imagine they get drawn into the equity marsh -- market and that is where the imbalance starts to close and demand accelerates faster, driving price action.

it is not about demand for shares, yet. could it be? absolutely. francine: what could put a stop to the equity rotation, or slow it down? gina: internally from cyclicals to return to workplace from stay-at-home place. that likely is somewhat dependent on the re-acceleration and economic conditions and acceleration in earnings growth prospects. we saw it slow down quite a bit over the last two weeks and some rotation back into the fences and out of cyclicals. small caps underperformed and we saw value equities underperform. we saw that pick back up. it says stay, to us we are somewhat dependent on this continued acceleration of forward economic growth condition, which we have a decent runway four. also we do not ask darian's --

experience greater shutdowns and fear does not emerge over alternative strains of infection that are popping up and we do see increasing dissemination of vaccines. tom: look, where we are with futures up 19 right now, we are looking at s&p 4000, which is maybe like a dow 10,000 as well. even if we extrapolate single-digit return, i would suggest a huge body in the market is not prepared for that. gina: i would also suggest that. there is a tremendous amount of skepticism that equities can produce returns and there is a tremendous amount of skepticism that we have somehow become mismatched with economic growth. our models suggest that we have not but sentiment seems to think otherwise. there is still a significant

portion of household retail investors that are not engaged in the equity market despite the fact that we had trading expectations surge recently. most households are not adding to equity exposure, seeking the new risk addition to their portfolio. and as we get to the point, sentiment will remain supportive of the equity market advance. tom: thank you so much. we are watching the news flow as we go to the equity mark. gina martin adams who have never heard said go to cash with us today. she has participated like no one. we are seeing movement in the vix, 21.79. you wonder that will be at 9:30 with this lift any equity markets. he has always been a voice of optimism. on this job stay with the policy wins that are out there, the gramercy funds management and

writer for bloomberg. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪

tom: all-nighter, that is what it was up on the hill, something may new and different, a lot of different votes. joni ernst's efforts was to move the minimum wage aside. the vice president of the united states, she does what joe biden did not do as vice president, cast an important and deciding vote. watching all of this is carl of bloomberg economics and chief u.s. correspondent. carl, has your team qualified what one point -- 1.x trillion would do to gdp and payrolls? carl: we are looking at growth at 3.5% this year. but if stimulus 3.0 passes in its original size close to $1.9 trillion, we would be looking at

moving that u.s. gdp forecast from about 3.5 percent up to something near 5% or a little bit more. tom: i put it out on twitter, " the telegraph" talked about the gloom of negative interest rates and someone was modeling 5% u.k. gdp. why are we doing all of this if our gdp statistic is so good? carl: i think that central-banks are prudent at evaluating downside risks to the economy and what tools would need to be employed if we did see a downside scenario due to variants or other type of shock to the economy. however, an important lesson that we can observe in theory, and also observed in practice in the case of the european central bank is the efficacy of negative interest rates, and u.s.

policymakers have pointed to the european experience to say that negative rates were not an effective policy tool. in fact, they looked to be a mistake. sweden reversed course and the bank of england is considering the reality of a negative interest rate policy. the fed is nowhere near that level. if you hamstring the banking sector, you should not expect a healthy economic health -- outcome and we need credit extension to have a healthy economic performance. i hope the bank of england does not get to the point where they go down this perilous path, but the federal reserve is not really viably considering it the toolkit at the turing -- current time. we can see that qe is much more effective. if you need more stimulus, pulled a qe lever, not the negative interest rate level -- lever. francine: who is actually hiring in the u.s. except amazon for delivery drivers? carl: we can see a significant

bifurcation in the employment numbers, and that is why someone glibly titled are preview, set your decoder ring to k. we talk about a k-shaped economic recovery. if we look at the sectors doing well like goods producing industries, manufacturing, construction or service industries that are resilient like finance, real estate, and a whole host of other categories. that section of the economy added 470,000 jobs last month alone. on the flipside, the downward leg, we can see a hemorrhaging jobs that lost over 600,000 jobs last month, and that is things like leisure, hospitality, department stores, the obvious category. jay powell talked about this

when he highlighted that the pockets of weakness in the economy and to be sure that the macroeconomists are much more happy to see pockets of weakness in a broad-based malaise. as we enter the jobs report and -- understanding the divergence in the two arms of the k will be much more important than the headline number. francine: what you are telling me is that the u.s. is creating somewhat quality jobs. what does the biden administration do? there is a pivot to green, does that create quality jobs? carl: a pivot to green would create a lot of construction jobs that tend to be union jobs or higher pay with better benefits. a lot of engineering and development jobs upfront, so i do think a version of the green new deal or an infrastructure deal would create substantial jobs. as we look at these jobs numbers , it is confusing because we had a massive hiring surge in the

back half of last year. but we have to remind ourselves as we think about the slack in the economy that tom highlighted and janet yellen was discussing, we are about 10 million jobs in the hole compared to where we were last year. the real unemployment rate would be closer to 9.5%. we should be talking about a run on the economy or hyperinflation, or a significant pickup when the unemployment rate is at 9.5%. tom: that's what we love, where we get right back to what is the employment gap. we had jared bernstein on, at the center of budget of policy and he would be talking about that kind of perspective for years at a real unemployment rate higher than where we are statistically. carl leading her economics coverage at bloomberg. futures up 20. on this jobs day, what do we see in the markets? you see the financial lift in

equities and oil as well. west texas, 56.78. brent crude, 59.47. not much story in the dollar. the euro at 1.1980 below the 1.20 level. a weaker dollar through the week. we are focused on the economics of the nation. wonderful guests coming to give us perspective across dollar simulcast. heather joins in the 9:00 hour as well with the president's council of economic advisors. stay with us, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> markets are rewarding places with vaccination and normalization strategy. >> may be it is not going a little too fast. >> the market will struggle at some point this year. >> there are a lot of people who can't go back to work. >> there are still a lot of scarring in the labor market. >> it will dictate the shape and pace of the recovery, as well. >> it is clear the destination for this year's covid of. >> this is bloomberg's "surveillance," with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. this is "surveillance." the s&p 500 at all-time highs. payroll is friday, just around the corner. tom: lots of good conversation, but what it was was the all-nighter we saw in the s