with vaccination and normalization strategy. >> may be it is not going a little too fast. >> the market will struggle at some point this year. >> there are a lot of people who can't go back to work. >> there are still a lot of scarring in the labor market. >> it will dictate the shape and pace of the recovery, as well. >> it is clear the destination for this year's covid of. >> this is bloomberg's "surveillance," with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. this is "surveillance." the s&p 500 at all-time highs. payroll is friday, just around the corner. tom: lots of good conversation, but what it was was the all-nighter we saw in the senate

as they drive the stimulus. you mentioned the washington post. we want to compare and contrast the stimulus versus 10 years ago. it is an opinionated lawrence summers pushing against his team. jonathan: that dropped on bloomberg from michael mckee this morning. when you compare the size of the output gap in 2009 and in the coming months, and then look at the relative stimulus programs, relative to that output gap, it basically says, in my words, this is huge. it is really big. what are the risks around it? he point by point goes through it. where's the space going to be if this gets pushed through to do the infrastructure spending, the public investment spending we need to see? this plan does not address that yet. tom: he puts a three factor on, as well. when you bring that into the markets like what you and lisa follow, look for the real yield this afternoon. very important. is the vector of inflation

expectations, and this was the story of 2021, and that line points to what summers is looking at, higher inflation's. jonathan: you have been on top of it. the yield curve is up a basis point, to almost 116 on the u.s.. your estimate,, as you pointed to the week, that estimate has kicked a little bit higher in the last couple of days. tom: payrolls looking better. mike mckee did dig into that. i thought it was great going back to first principles. it was 10 gazillion unemployed and the fact of the matter is what is the real unemployment rate? jonathan: we will talk to the economist as we count you down to the payroll report. lisa abramowicz? lisa: the 8:30 a.m. jobs report, i'm trying to understand what the market will respond to, a surprise to the up or down? we have seen incredible progress

the last months. it stalled out in december when we saw a drop off. if we get a better than expected number, does that mean less emphasis on stimulus in washington? if it is worse than expected, doesn't mean momentum is in getting up to speed? is good news at this point good news? to build on the question of stimulus, president biden, vice president harris are meeting with house democratic leaders, following the vote last night and senate. it is clear the democrats want to go it alone, and you honed in on the key question, how much air does it take out of the room to do anything later in the year given the fact that republicans are not on board with this? this isn't a bipartisan washington right now. also today, fangio and draftkings ceo's are joining bloomberg television before the super bowl. the reason i'm interested to see what they have to say -- i knew you were going to ask me about this -- how much are people

returning to sports betting? people are talking about robinhood, not having anything to do or bet on, and, honestly, that is the question. how much people have abandoned sports betting and if they are coming back, how much interest. jon is rolling his eyes at me, i can just imagine. jonathan: i'm ok. lisa: are you? tom: can we keep her happy? jonathan: that is why she did this, it has nothing to do with draftkings. tom: on radio, good morning, 106.1 in boston, greatly appreciate you supporting lisa and her brady signed today. jonathan: that is the extent of the super bowl coverage the next couple of hours. equities, tom, all-time record highs in the s&p 500. wells fargo said 3850 years and,

3800 year-end, 3883 is where we sit this morning on february 5. lisa: i put a chart together here, going back to the 1940's lows. we won't show it now on radio and tv, but the people betting against this market, the people betting against the american stock market, capitalism and prosperity, the word from president obama years ago, they have been shellacked. jonathan: oh definitely. last year, technically, you were short ingenuity. you are short the health care community. they managed to pull something massive off. and that vaccine news has been a story. tom: jon knows where i live, a six floor walk-up, and they walked into the lobby today, and yesterday there were 300 boxes from amazon. jonathan: from amazon. tom: 300, not exaggerating. they are getting littler.

they are ordering bowties. jonathan: is that what they're doing? tom: i got a tiffany collar and they came in a little box. i love enter. i was like chuck schumer done at the senate. i left bankers at brooklyn to get to the show on time. heartbreaking. jonathan: they are out of the title race. that is the extent of the football coverage this morning. tom: and the brady coverage. jonathan: lisa can't help herself. we are joined now by priya misra. the most important question is not about the number ahead of the payrolls report but how the market reacts. can you walk me through what you expect and 90-minutes? priya: we are looking for a better number. there has been better economic data the last month -- actually, much higher than what you would

have thought given the covid search. i think -- covid surge. i think it is the vaccination rollout and the stimulus paired we are looking for a better number, but it's hard for me to say. i don't think payrolls really matter. i don't expect a very big reaction, even the estimate for today, largely because it is all about the future. this fiscal stimulus package. i don't think more than one truly mispriced in, so if it does look like the senate and the democrats are going alone, i think we're looking at one and a half, $1.7 trillion. i don't think it is priced into real range. tom: of all the people, they open their barons up on the dining room table, as my mother did, what is the 10 that is critical? we are at 1.156, where is priya misra's point where you see escape velocity to a higher 10 year yield? priya: i would say it is real

rates that matter. tom: on the real yields, i get it. priya: i think if that -1.10% real yield goes to 40 basis points percent backup, i think that is the problem for the dollar. the dollar strengthens a lot more. i think the fed takes no. at -- takes note. at 1.30, our target, i don't think you are at a level where it will impact the economy. mortgage rates have barely risen. so the velocity is much higher than you first saw the $1.9 trillion stimulus package. i think it will push. we are very far from the right now. lisa: jon and tom were talking about if you have been short this market heading into the year or last year, you would have been short ingenuity, short the ability to overcome the pandemic. is that an accurate way of looking at it, or would that be been short the fed, stimulus

payments, and being short that things popping of the market, in addition to earnings recovery? priya: i think the fed is a big part of that. when i heard you talk about ingenuity, it is also the fed's resolve to keep real rates here. we are hearing real rates because they tell us it is too early to talk about tapering. certainly too early to talk about hike. if they don't hike until 2025, how high can real rates go? i think the question -- i think it is that 1.9 sweet spot where we all focus on the fed. are they going to buy more treasuries and extend maturity? if not, then the rates market is stopping in terms of how much is topped. tom: i love how you talk about the real yield circuit breaker. 30 minutes or 60 minutes this afternoon on the real yield. i want to talk about the

negative rates moving europe, where there is a lesser, smaller negative interest rate. what does that signal? priya: there was a lot of focus on the bank of england and if they would go into negative territory. the fed has been clear they are not going negative anytime soon. and while i think they did not really take it off the table, it is unlikely, which is why i think we have seen global markets rise. i would say the u.s. move is much more stimulus, but certainly for bonds and yields, they were completely not moving because of this fear of negatives. when you go into negative, there is an infinite amount that it can stay negative. so by not taking that step, they have said we are going to be at the effective low, and i think that is reducing the amount the market can price easing from the bank of england, as well. i think that is the move, but i would watch global rates. if they start to head higher, that propels the global rate

sendoff much more than the u.s. jonathan: i have to admit i'm confused by the bank of england right now. priya, thank you. tom keene, have you seen the banks this week? jp morgan is up 7.5%. unreal. kbw bank index, up almost 9% on the week. unreal. tom: did we see a bad rings you from a major visible company? i don't think so. we saw some that were moldy and soggy, but the earnings have been good, and we had this interest-rate shift. folks, this is a first principle could i know you don't hear it from business tv, stocks matter, but what really matters is the land of lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro and fixed income is talking. jonathan: the rates move, the bond markets, the spread between a bigger one on the yield curve. lisa: there is a question of how much this has to do with supply and growth, and whether people

perhaps have gotten ahead of themselves. i'm sorry, i have to throw that in there. jonathan: don't think i did not notice you used the guest to cut me down. lisa:lisa: i was not cutting you down. it is worth a debate. jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, alongside these abramowitz and tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. lisa is always right. lisa: british sarcasm. jonathan: payrolls just around the corner. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with first word news, i'm rick perry group to. -- i am ritika gupta. 1.9 trillion dollar stimulus plan from joe biden, the vote 51-50 with vice president harris breaking her first high. the house will likely vote friday to adopt the senate's language that would allow democrats to approve the stimulus without republican support. the house has voted to strip

georgia republican marjorie taylor greene from her seats for violence against democrats and conspiracy theories. 11 republicans voted with the democratic majority. greene earlier said she disavowed her previous views. require travelers to quarantine starting february 15. arrivals on the u.k. travel ban list will have to isolate for 10 days in government approved accommodations. so far, they are looking at hotels near airports and ports. the super bowl an national football league hopes to avoid large-scale operates at the game. attendance is capped at 25,000, a record level for the biggest event. the league has given a ticket to 7500 vaccinated health care workers. it is the biggest internet ipo since uber went public in 2019. shares of kauishou rose 106 21% in their hong kong debut -- 161%

in their hong kong debut, operating one of the most popular short video services. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and at quicktake on bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ want to save hundreds on your wireless bill? with xfinity mobile you can. how about saving hundreds on the new samsung galaxy s21 ultra 5g? you can do that too. all on the most reliable network. sure thing! and with fast nationwide 5g included at no extra cost. we've got you covered. so join the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction. and get a new samsung galaxy starting at $17 a month. learn more at xfinitymobile.com or visit your local xfinity store today.

>> to confront china's economic abuses, counter aggressive,

course of action pushed back on china's attack on human rights, intellectual property, and global governance, but we are ready to work with beijing when it is in america's interest to do so. jonathan: in some very specific ways, the new government sounds like the old government. president biden on the dread of china and working with china. tom: i would go there, as well. jonathan: there are subtle differences but it is very similar. i'm not sure it will change in the coming weeks and months. tom: i mentioned this earlier, the idea that the nsc maybe shows again polarity we would expect from biden on the same page with china. they are not on the same page in washington for kevin cirilli pulling an all-nighter with the senate. he was not going to be on today, but we need to be balanced on "surveillance," on radio and tv, so as we have a brady love, we have to have a brady hate.

kevin, explain the hatred for tom brady. kevin: hate is a strong word, tom. i'm not a hater by any stretch, but hardly will i be rooting for tom brady, who, of course, has a long history of controversy that dates back to deflategate in new england. i was disappointed when andy reid left the philadelphia eagles, but i am going to be rooting for coach reed this weekend. tom: we use the word hate because it fit the banner. let's keep moving. i look at where we are right now. let's talk about the hatred out there in washington. how is the center framing up in washington? jon mention china. what are the optics in the last 48 hours? kevin: i was struck by a letter president biden's u.s. trade representative nominee sent to members of the senate and the republican party just this week. they asked her specifically about whether or not she would remove while way -- huawei from

a list of restrictions when she is sworn in. she will likely get bipartisan support for her confirmation. she said point-blank in her response to the letter that she does not see the need to immediately remove companies like huawei and dte from these lists that a trump administration had put in there. i bring this up because in speaking with a source yesterday close to the u.s. trade representative nominee, there is, as jonathan pointed out, a center in washington, d.c., that is very much speaking from the same geopolitical playbook in terms of how to deal with china. that center policy we've seen emerge over the past six months. jonathan: let's pick up on the buzz word, bipartisan. where is the bipartisan effort on the fiscal side now in washington? kevin: where there might be bipartisanship with u.s.-china

relations, there was no bipartisanship with the $1.9 trillion work of stimulus, falling into the ideological camps. yesterday i interviewed senator marsha blackburn, a republican from tennessee. she has deep concerns about whether the united states can afford to take on $1.9 trillion worth of stimulus, but the bottom line here is that for republicans who might be more in the middle and willing to have more economic stimulus within the next six weeks, that is actually an easier vote for them than voting to convict former president trump in the trial next week. tom: lisa, i know you want to pick it up your, but what i find amazing here is you have russia blackburn on the same page -- you have marsha blackburn on the same page as the washington post. lisa: the idea of what is the correct size in order to actually solve the immediate problems versus stimulate the economy? kevin, this goes to the heart of the question i wanted to ask, if the democrats go it alone, does

that take any additional stimulus, true stimulus, infrastructure spending, etc., off the table later in the year because they won't be able to get the bipartisan support? kevin: yes in the sense if they have to get through -- if they need any republican support from a procedural standpoint in order to bring a budget measure to a vote because of the narrow majorities they have in the house and senate. i would also note that if president biden does not get the $1.9 trillion stimulus through in his first 100 days of office, then he would be missing out on a significant domestic accomplishment in his first 100 days juxtaposed with the rollout they are pushing for on the vaccination effort. when treasury secretary janet yellen is speaking on "good morning america," as she did yesterday, and continuing to drum up support for $1400 stimulus checks, something president biden has really said

has to be included in the negotiations, it is another illustration of how democrats are now feel they have to take this case, not even necessarily to people like mitt romney, who offered up a trial balloon as compromise yesterday, but senator joe mentioned. those are the types of centrist democrats who are on the fence about whether or not the country can afford so quick to make another down payment on recovery. jonathan: the size of the check is only one part of the problem. the smaller part. the bigger problem is eligibility for the checks and whether this administration can reconcile differences within the administration, within their own party, and who should be eligible and who should not be. where are we now? kevin: that is the underreported story through all of the negotiations. i will be frank, i spoke with a source within the last week who is very plugged in to the liberal, democratic, socialist winged of the party, and this

source was incredibly frustrated about the dynamics of a stimulus package that they feel has not gone far enough. that tension bubbling over while they are willing to give president biden and stick with him on a significant victory in his first 100 days, longer-term, is going to be a story to watch. jonathan: kevin cirilli, down in washington, d.c., thank you. he is warming up. you take a bit of time off, you come back. lisa: being braded by the team for a sabbatical. kevin: i can't feel my face. i'm prepping for the weekend halftime show this weekend. jonathan: i wish we had a phone and a camera like five years ago. when tom keene found out the weekend is performing --

tom: i love his team effort for you can tell he goes into the studio and there are no egos, nothing, it is him in 10 people putting it together. lisa: just like surveillance. jonathan: just like surveillance. [laughter] tom: can i say something? can we get back on script? steve ratner killing it with joe and mika. if you make more money, you don't spend the stimulus check. it is like this, killing that idea. jonathan: well, that is the issue. if it is stimulus, what are you stimulating an economy that is still shut down, tom? where does the money go? tom: gamestop. i don't know. jonathan: what has tom ever said let's get back on script? when did this start? lisa: this is fantastic i will keep on script, i think it is interesting that they said the idea is people are using the money to pay down debt deferred.

that idea has not been discussed as much as others. jonathan: good point, lisa, as always. lisa: t weichert i can't handle this show. -- thank you. i can't handle the show. jonathan: payrolls friday. one hour, five minutes away. we

>> this is bloomberg that, your weekly review of the most important interviews from bloomberg television around the world. world.

jonathan: from new york city, this is bloomberg "surveillance" on this payrolls friday. that number comes in one hours time. your estimate is 105,000. as the because grown older, we have added more to the s&p 500 all-time highs. can we make it five? we are up about .5 on the s&p 500 this morning. the nasdaq this morning up about one third. the small caps back on top. switch of the board. the bond market at the center of everything. it is always rates and the two year yield one of the most important headlines from the central bank in the last 12 months i've heard, actually came from australia and the last 24 hours. tom, wait for this, the governor

of rba basically saying rates are not going arise until 2024. get your head around that. tom: it is a calendar derby, but -- jonathan: that's the guidance now, 2024. i would argue the fed, maybe ecb is in line with this. tom: i thought you were in key west. i did not know you were here? jonathan: i'm back. bond market, yield curve, yields higher, up about a couple of basis points. lisa is right, how the bond market respond to the jobs number is a big unknown. how does it respond? downside surprise? you start a factor in more stimulus -- tom: what else do you have? jonathan: let me finish the thought. tom: i'm excited about oil. jonathan: calm down, let me get to the banks. let's walk people through the yield curve. you will get your chance, tom.

you will be back in the spotlight shortly. deep breath. have a drink. finish on this, the banks, a huge rally, a massive. kbw looks a little bit something like this, around about nine percentage points for unreal. all of that on the back of a steeper yield curve. the main prospect, good luck. >> do they keep tom sealed in that cage? jonathan: we have not figured that out yet. >> you were talking about the banks, there is a big reopening trade taking place. earnings were reported after the bill yesterday. a lot of people were looking for that revenue growth and that covid-19 treatment. they expect revenue of about 3 billion this year, but more importantly, the rest of their business is doing well, as well. most of the revenue comes from the hiv-aids franchise. tour back cross the wire a

little bit ago, and they will start producing doses of their vaccine. still waiting on final approval but that's come down the pipe in a couple of months. in cardinal health is a big medical distributor -- tom: what did they say? romaine: they are seeing much more pickup in demand from hospitals. that's a good sign because they say a lot of the stuff they ship is for non-covid related stuff, so you go back to the hospitals for normal treatment, botox, whatever you want, cardinal health megan a lot of money. flip up the board, other names benefiting. on a weekly basis, retailers are higher. live nation up 14%. carnival up about 2% on a weekly basis in the grid market. you talk about the banks, jon, they have not only benefited from the increasing yield, but have seen a lot of bullish commentary about just as general pickup and demand.

the economic demand, and how that benefits the bank, particularly small and mid-cap banks. that is what analysts are saying to turn your attention to. they are strongly correlated with the yield curve and they could be the beneficiary. tom: have you researched chevron mobile midstream? any thoughts on that? romaine: i actually did not this morning. but i did research pinterest. i was checking out the bloomberg surveillance pinterest page earlier. they are doing well, tom. up more than 70%. tom: they are, as well. jon, if you go back to the data check, it is important the basic idea of brent crude at $60 a barrel is way underreported. jonathan: i agree with you. tom: huge deal. jonathan: thank you, romaine. tom: romaine, thank you. lisa: thank you for the shout out. tom: it is really important about cardinal health. romaine: watches from 2:00 to 5:00 this afternoon.

they don't keep us sealed. we are altogether. tom: on the jobs report, we start with morgan stanley's chief u.s. economist. she's been extremely good with the agony of getting from february to february. ellen zentner, is this good news we've seen off of their her thick news of 30 days ago? is it a one-off or a trend in place? ellen: i don't think this is a one-off. i don't think the positive jobs growth we expect to be reported later this morning to be the start of that massive inflow back into the labor market last year -- labor market like last year as we came under lockdown. but it will have the feel of may be have turned the corner in that was all restrictions, we are being put in place through mid-december, and then from mid-december onward, we did not have any further restrictions.

we have started to see some of the restrictions, off. that should allow -- restrictions come off. that should allow more people to return to restaurants. it will start a trickle and then roll more quickly as we head towards the spring, especially into march. lisa: how much stimulus do we actually need? how much fiscal support in order to really get this label economy -- labor economy accelerating in the way you would like to see? ellen: i think the issue here for congress is they contemplate this next stimulus package is that the longer they delay, or the longer it takes to get a package passed, the more we are going to be in the midst of a big pickup in economic momentum. of course, there is nothing like economic mental to push congress off of passing a needed package. what i can see is the democrats would really like to be able to provide further rebate checks, extend federal supplemental

unemployment benefits because they expire in march. that is why i think there is a great impulse for them to get something done in march. that is when we expect about a $1 trillion package to come. there is a real risk that it just does not happen. i think we can survive it. this is something i talked about late last year. it is nice to build a bridge into the middle of the year when unemployment rates have been coming down more significantly, but it is not going to be end of days if we aren't able to get another package. lisa: it is not just a headline number but the composition. what programs are actually being provided? from your economic cap, what are the most effective programs the u.s. should be financing to get employment speed? ellen: right now you want to provide support, especially for those unemployed, because you don't want them to detach from the labor market altogether.

because then there is a high probability they just leave the labor market and don't ever come back. then you get that longer-term structural unemployment, which really depresses growth over the long run. in order to keep those folks attached to the labor market and how they can get employed, it is good to have those unemployment benefits and other income assistance forbearance programs and the like that are really geared toward the lowest income in this case because it is both service sector and low-wage jobs that see the most jobless. lowering that qualified income bracket for a rebate checks, as we did with the $900 billion stimulus in december, that is really the most effective. we can see they are spending those checks. i think that package could not have come at a better time. we were on track to see very low possibly negative gdp in the first quarter, but we can see in january, a real spending among the lower income households when

the checks came in. jonathan: can you walk us through where you think the savings rate will be heading the rest of the year? ellen: with another $1 trillion package toward the end of the first quarter, we are not only going to see the pop and the savings rate from the checks that went out starting at the end of last year in january, but we are going to see a further rise in savings rate in the second quarter if we do get that next package. thereafter, it is going to really drop hard in the third quarter because you don't have government transfers coming in. but you have labor income coming in. it is going to be a big volatility from what we saw last year, but, ultimately, we think it takes the course all the way through 2022 to come down to levels we had pre-covid. most likely lower than levels we had pre-covid, but i think that where we come to rest could be around pre-covid or higher. around 8.5% unemployment rate.

what we have, though, is a very big cushion building in excess savings. it is something we've been writing about since early last year when we went into lockdown. that cushion is very important because it can help fuel buying power and households for longer. they may not spend all of the income they are getting today. that cushion is there. it will support through the year. tom: your claim was based off acute analysis of a consumer. ok, i will take it, there is a savings cushion, but is it in the upper quintile? are you telling me half of america on the bottom has a savings cushion? ellen: i guess i am, and you are right on the wealthy. not only does the top income quintile represent 40% of consumer spending, they are also the savers. if you think about it from income group, quintiles, -130%

for the lowest income quintile because they spend more than they get because of government transfers. this is unique. when we went into lockdown last year, we sent out checks to everyone. and so, likewise, this time, we are going to see caution. we are going to see they are not able to spend all of it. they saved more than 50% of it, and savings means putting it under your mattress, the bank, paying down debt, but some will trickle into the economy. we do have savings and we can see they are being built up across all income groups. it is unlike any other time we've seen. the lower income groups don't save, but here's something economist have to consider because the lower income groups are not your savers, their propensity to consume out of that savings is quite strong. this goes back to lisa's point of what is the most stimulus, stimulative? you target lower income groups.

jonathan: always great to catch up, especially on payrolls friday. ellen zentner, morgan stanley chief u.s. economist. j&j applying for emergency youth authorization for that one shot vaccine regime. game changer. tom: i will go with that, but mostly it is day after day after day of getting it in. jonathan: you interrupted me a little bit earlier, so pay back. coming up in 50 minutes time, the payrolls report. at 9:00 a.m. eastern on the open, your lineup, mohamed el-erian, anastasia omarosa from jp morgan and just maybe, maybe the weeknd. tom: i look around and surveillance is calling -- no one is around to judge me. ♪ i can see clearly with the ground ♪ ♪ hey, hey, hey. jonathan: thousand i favorite.

i really don't want to go. -- that was my favorite. i really don't want to go. ritika: with the first word news, i am ready could. the senate has cleared the way for president biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus plan without republican support, if they want to. after 15 hours of considered amendments, they voted early to job a budget blueprint for the biden plan. it was 51-50 with vice president harris raking her first tie. the house will likely -- breaking her first tie. the house will likely vote today. janet yellen found the stock in commodity markets remain resilient during recent volatility, after she met with financial regulators. she called off the surges like an gamestop. and angela merkel warns it is still too early to ease the lockdown.

it is starting to show signs of slowing down but angela merkel says she wants the economy to open without having to close it again too soon. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and at quicktake on bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> when you have altered financing conditions for a long

period of time, you can create incentives, incentives can reach for yield, it can cause some missed price risk and markets. the real priority right now has been addressing this extraordinary shock. the federal reserve right now is far away from what i would say of achieving its objective. jonathan: the first comment is interesting. describe the policy of the federal reserve of the last 12 months. that was esther george of the kansas city fed, weighing in on the situation. it is payrolls friday. alongside tom keene and the separable weights, i'm jonathan ferro. we have equity markets at all-time highs. we have 18 to the s&p, up about half of 1%, approaching 3900. tom, you joked the other day we are on 4000 watch. the bond yields up three basis points. the euro with a little bounce back. rough time for europe last

months. euro-dollar up about .2. tom: look at the 10 year yield, on radio and tv, folks, i'm concerned it is a junk condition. jonathan: the most put a question going into payrolls, how does that bond market -- it will be the one thing i go to -- what does the bond market look like after payrolls? how does it respond? i'm not convinced either way. tom: we will continue this dialogue on emerging markets and the effect of what we see in the united states on the recovery and what it means. that means we go to damian sassower. he is more than proficient in the gaming of sports. do you sense and acute interest in the super bowl or is it pandemic affected? damian: with all this focus on gamestop, reddit, people are

really missing the fact that if you look at your sports lines and the sports books, it is a three point spread between kansas and tampa bay. even though 92% of the bets have been placed in favor of kansas city. i mean, i need 3.5 points in the super bowl. tom: when you see a 92% till, is it like investment where you go the other way? damian: if you are a contrarian, for sure. tom: i'm asking you. damian: you pretend i know things when i really don't. i am focused on emerging markets. it is about em credit for me and the fact we are seeing my universe move further down the credit spectrum. to reiterate lisa abramowicz, what is going on with high-yield? it is where people are going to that spread protection from rising u.s. yields. go figure. lisa: i love you. you are great. you are saying we will talk about the super bowl but i focus on emerging markets, so let's

get there. there has been a lot of energy put into em credit eerie people have said it will be on the heels of a weaker dollar -- em credit. people have said it will be on the heels of a weaker dollar. do you think things have gotten tubby in the most popular emerging markets you cover? damian: absolutely. and you see that in performance, given by energy and basics. they give you the greatest protection from rising u.s. yields, at least on the $. if you are looking for -- on the dollar side. as my colleague points out, it will be upward earning estimate provisions that will drive you there. i.e. fundamentals. i'm dubious on that. in the world flush with you could 80 -- flush with the quiddity, we've gotten ahead of ourselves. in emerging markets, we go to extremes. we over perform to the upside and underperformed to the downside, and we are playing catch-up. there was more juice left in the tank. jonathan: quickly, this is what

was said. we see these gains as temporary. talking about the u.s. dollar. the vaccine gap between the u.s. and eurozone may be well priced and. that is the story right now, the vexing gap. the growth differentials -- the vaccine gap. the growth differentials, do you think it is priced? damian: we are talking about currency movements and trying to correlate that to vaccine take up. i am not going to pretend i know are currencies are headed next. i have no idea where the dollar is headed next. you just want to look at consensus. you are right, the dollar could start depreciating, particularly against asian currencies. that is where i would dig my heels in. tom: let's look at south african rand, africa's front and center on the worst pandemic. i notice the south african rand, with all of their challenges, massive strong zar. do you assume that reverses? damian: we saw a significant

pullback in ultra buying of south african government bonds, which was dominated by foreigners for a great period of time in 2020 p now we are seeing the bond buyers return. that is driving up the brand. that is good for the south africa is in a mess. forget about the vaccines. talk about what the government needs to do to keep the country's biggest power utility operating smoothly the next year. jonathan: i've got to jump in. if there is a mess of the rand, it is not the 15. damian: it is coming back because of south african bond yields significantly higher than the u.s. if you can get some stability between the rand-dollar cross rate, you could pick up a heck of a lot of yield. give me a break. jonathan: always great to catch up. we have to play pool one day. tom: who are you betting on for the game? jonathan: don't get answers from our guest, tom. who is it?

damian: tampa bay. jonathan: why? damian: because defense wins championships and they have a better defense than kansas city and it is tough to bet against tom brady. tom: does weeknd opened with blinding lights? jonathan: just pretend the screen froze. damian: again, i know nothing. jonathan: great to see you, sir, as always. tom: brilliant. jonathan: we will get back on the tracks and a little bit. 105,000, your estimate. earlier it was around 40, 50 k. we have a series of economic data points. better-than-expected. jobless claims coming back down a little bit. really important. the employment component doing better and the estimate just ticked a little bit higher, 35 minutes away. tom: the optimist got the claims number they needed. i cannot emphasize leave ability on thursday's claims report

versus the mystery of what adp does on wednesday. jonathan: lisa abramowicz does not get it done, we need to see something better. lisa: i would like to go back to the point, the market response and what is going to be. damian mention jump on yields, an all-time low at 1.49%. are we pricing and fundamentals that have to do with the labor market, or are we pricing fundamentals in which is monetary policy? at what point do better fundamentals mean tighter monetary policy, which is negative for risk? jonathan: let's be clear about that, they are off the tides. lisa: i could make an argument. if you look at some activity, it is looking like tuppy markets when you have reverse inquiries and dividend payouts, leverage -- just saying. jonathan: you could have said that at any point in the last month. tom: i'm waiting for a montage. jonathan: tom, you are up. tom: i am waiting for a montage.

jonathan: what would you like it of? tom: of brady. you have to do a brady montage. i work on radio. jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morning. servetus subramanian coming right up. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> markets are rewarding people with vaccination and normalization. >> the market is going to struggle at some point this year. >> there are a lot of people who can't go back to work. >> there is still a lot of scarring in the labor market. >> it will indicate the shape of the recove. y. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz.