>> what we are seeing is levels of dangerous optimism building. >> the market will struggle at some point this year. >> there is a lot of over starring in the labor market. >> we have a big push. >> the virus dictated the downturn in it will dictate the shape of the recovery. >> a lot of the stimulus is not stimulus at all. it is an antidepressant. >> this is bloomberg surveillance, with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance live on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. equity futures up 14 points on the s&p 500. let's skip the super bowl happy talk and get straight to the market. yields are higher and a massive debate in d.c. on whether the stimulus package is too big.

tom: i may be blinded by the light but i am blinded by the correlation. major correlation. we do this every day. it is not just about equity markets. it is the way it is up. 30 year bond, 2% yield, what does that mean for stimulus? jonathan: inflation expectations picking up. you want me to brush over the fact you dropped in weekend lyrics? tom: i am running out of time. jonathan: keep going. keep going. yields higher not just in treasuries, but in bunds. yields lower, treasuries lower. this discussion is important in d.c. larry summers is not for saying it is too big, he is saying it is the composition. he would go to $1.9 trillion, he might go baker, but it is the composition he is pushing back on. this is about income relief for

this year and next year and not enough investment in sustainable growth. that is where many people want the focus to be. tom: two things. rich miller's article is brilliant, and also professor summers republished his in the washington post. no one is around to judge me. i would say your point on negative yields, the swiss 20 year yield is a lesser negative and could even go positive. that is a huge deal. jonathan: a little left. lisa abramowicz, chairman powell speaks later this week. that is interesting. lisa: this might be what is driving markets, the fed stimulus. there is a question about central bank stimulus and how they plan to gracefully exit when the time arises, whenever that may be. i am looking at that on both sides of the atlantic. christine lagarde is speaking at the european parliament. a big question about soft exits.

how did that get accomplished given the dominance of special bank action? that is the big debate and perhaps she will be addressing that. also focused on bank action. loretta mester to speak at a rotary club event today in toledo. very interested to hear her take on a key question matt king of citigroup raised. does elevating asset prices to bubble levels help them achieve their goals for full employment and faster inflation or hinder it? that is something i've not seen an answer on. today the house of representatives is beginning work on a stimulus bill you are talking about. the composition is key. the question being the component of the $1400 checks to individuals. what is the eligibility of that? how low will it go to try to exempt some higher income earners. part of the big debate, the idea it will go straight into savings

and not into the regular economy. jonathan: let's get straight to the price action. futures with a lift again. we add weight to the s&p, 3900 around the corner on the s&p 500. all-time highs in united states. in the bond market, a lift for treasury yields. very close to 1.20. one point 1860%. the banks flying. bank of america up 9% last week. the biggest gain for the financials going back to early in the middle of november. michael: i go back -- tom: i go back to the election. you had banks up 30%. howard ward on bloomberg television moments ago, 4400 spx target. jonathan: joining us is stuart kaiser. great to catch up. the bond market, the yields breaking out a little bit.

what is the tolerance in this market for that? stuart: i think the tolerance is pretty high. you do well when you are rising outside of tightening cycles. the reason is -- i think there will be a fair amount of tolerance, particulate if the fit remains easy and wants to be behind it. the second part is inflation expectations. 10 year breakeven is 2.2%. when that number gets 2.5%, it does turn into a headwind for equities. definitely following breakevens. big picture yields are moving higher for the rice -- for the right reasons which is growth rather than policy tightening. it should not be too strong of a headwind. tom: what level of 10 year yield begins the ambiguity be good a good rise in yields and a more challenging rise in yield? stuart: the level that has been

talked about is 1.5%, which we are a good distance away from. something around that level. the market might focus on 150 and if equities are still rallying they will move the number to 2%. it will be the big round numbers the market will be most concerned with. they will also be looking at where real rates are. on the back of that, if real rates are rising, that will be a different issue. lisa: you focus on equities and derivatives. we are talking about bonds. is anything in this market tied to fundamentals that has to do with corporate earnings, or is this all tied to the federal reserve? stuart: i like to think there is a fundamental aspect. the stimulus will hopefully drive growth higher. folks have been revising gdp estimates up. i think a lot of it is balance sheets liquidity. if you think back to what kicked off the rally, you have the

election but then you have good vaccine outcomes, and i think for most investors they are reading that through to a bigger growth impulse. the liquidity helps when you're trying to find the floor. on the way up, the market is pricing that these things will translate into growth. if they do not translate into growth you are in a much bigger issue. it all does come back to fundamentals. i think it is a fair point people are just trading round numbers. jonathan: in some ways the bond market is looking at the california inflation and pricing in higher inflation. -- looking at the inflation and pricing in higher inflation. do i want to anchor myself to the stock market or protect myself from it? stuart: i think you are still viewing that as a positive impulse. last year equities were highly correlated with breakevens. that tends to be the case until

you hit a breakpoint and call the breakpoint between two point 25% and 2.5%. if there's anything markets have been looking for it is nominal growth. it is interesting we are getting nominal growth priced in. for now, it is a positive at the index level. below the index level you might see inflation trades going on. maybe that helps commodity sectors, maybe it is a headwind for other parts of the market. higher inflation expectations are not bad yet. if it looks like they break out and get to levels that could be troublesome, that i think we are ok for now. tom: stuart kaiser, ubs on the american banks? stuart: ubs on the american banks? i work for a european bank so i tend to keep my eyes focus. tom: you are doing securities research on the u.s. banks. give me a little guidance. stuart: if we look at u.s. banks

or banks in general, that is a cyclical part of the market that is opposed to rising rates. if you're getting a large growth impulse in the u.s. plus getting rates higher, collectively those things should be a net positive for the banking sector. the macro conditions are pretty supportive for bank stocks at this point. lisa: one thing you do is take a look at positioning and understand how crowded trades are. how crowded is the bullish call? how vulnerable is it to upset some sort of shock? stuart: things have calmed down. coming from the middle of december when you had the stimulus package announced kumutha german is meant of activity in financials, materials -- stimulus package announced, you saw a tremendous activity in financials, materials -- if you look at interest rates, those have been

very high. i think what you have is people renting exposure to those sectors through a lot of tactical trading, and that has taken a pause during earnings. i think people were there. it is not feel like people are fully there yet, so i think there is some room to run. we like owning exposure to those cyclicals, whether that is things like german equities, emerging markets, we think there is room to run. jonathan: in education and how to make a u.s.-based strategist of european bank nervous. tom keene is one question away from asking how ralph hammers is getting on it ubs. i will not ask you that. i will let you run away. lisa: i worried. jonathan: i know. that is why wrapped up the interview. banks are well followed in the united states. the kbw index up 8.7%.

tom: what is so important is to participate -- is to partition the banks out from the giant banks. the regionals beneath them. it is interesting to see the differences. the trading dynamic which was thumbs up, versus conventional banking. jonathan: the vanilla trading of the borrowing short and lend long. tom: you nailed that. jonathan: that is banking 101. tom: lisa is speechless. lisa: i am waiting for you to ask jonathan to explain offsides. jonathan: another time. tom: lisa, how is your hand? everyone once to know -- everyone wants to know? are we castless? lisa: i was trying to go camouflage. it is tan.

it is blending right in. jonathan: it looks close. lisa: thanks. jonathan: good effort. tom: i am going through withdrawal. jonathan: anymore lyrics? lisa: we will get them. tom: the weekend was awesome. jonathan: for our audience worldwide, seen on bloomberg tv, heard on bloomberg radio. on sirius xm channel 119, this is bloomberg. ritika: i am ritika gupta. janet yellen predicts the u.s. can return to full employment next year, only if it enacts a strong coronavirus to mills package like the one proposed by president biden. janet yellen said the job market is in a deep hole.

republicans have complained the president's plan is to expensive. president biden promises a different relationship with xi jinping then donald trump had. the president told cbs news there'll be competition but not conflict. he said there is no reason why he has not spoken with president xi yet. vaccine developers are working on a new shop to fight the south african strain of the coronavirus. early data suggesting the current vaccine from astrazeneca has limited impact on the disease caused by the variant. the new shot should be ready by autumn. former u.s. secretary of state george schulz has died. he led cold war diplomacy under ronald reagan and frequently clashed with more ideological members of the administration. before that he was labor secretary and treasury secretary under richard nixon. he was 100 years old. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more

than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

secretary yellen: this passage

will speed recovery. an analyst by moody's and at the brookings institution shows that clearly, we will get people back to work much sooner with this package. that is critically important. there is absolutely no reason why we should suffer through a long slow recovery. jonathan: janet yellen speaking on cnn over the weekend. from new york city, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i'm jonathan ferro. i want to check in on the price action. huge debate between the democrats on the size of the package and the composition as well. in the equity market, a lift. up 12 points in the s&p. we traveled north one third of 1% to another record high. in the bond market, yields are higher. we have new highs in the post-pandemic period.

that print came just south of 1.20. euro-dollar, 1.2029. a little bit of dollar strength. these yields creeping higher. tom: i'm glad you partition that with the dollar not moving like the other market. euro-yen gives me stronger euro versus weaker yen. with kevin cirilli, i have eight ways to go but the stimulus is front and center. if the democrats need motivation , it is called march 5, 2021 when we get the next labor report. what is the urgency to actually get something done? kevin: today speaker pelosi will kickstart the reconciliation process in order to continue on the procedural pathway for the stimulus to be advanced. some democrats saying in the

next two weeks -- other republicans suggesting that could happen in the next three to six weeks. i spoke with jared bernstein of the white house, who said despite lacking any significant republican support and following along a partisan vote from a procedural vote last week, they are still not necessarily saying republicans will not be named to a reconciliation committee in order to hammer out the finalities of this $1.9 trillion stimulus deal. tom: again, the urgency that is out there in small business america. you have any understanding of when there is action and not talk? kevin: i think the procedural vote from speaker pelosi's perspective and the votes last week is this will make its way through president biden's first

100 days. should this hit a political quagmire as the last round of stimulus did, we remember how it took months for them to get to a deal. that would be a significant domestic policy defeat for president biden in his first 100 days. candidly, president biden wants to see this cross the finish line because he needs a significant policy weighing in his first 100 days -- a significant policy win in his first 100 days juxtaposed with the vaccine rollout. republicans were concerned with the national debt would say this is not a win. republicans were concerned with the national debt would say this is not a win. for democrats this is top of their to do list. jonathan: what is amazing and original about the moment. we can hit ides were not made -- weekend headlines were not made by republicans pushing back, it was made by former treasury secretary larry summers, and also attitude by olivia blanche

ard taking the side of larry summers. this is a moment of people asking your question we need answers. it is a huge package. it is the composition. what are you doing about public investment, what are you doing about sustainable growth over the long period beyond the next 12 months? why can't we target that? i think these are valid questions. tom: jason furman and austan goolsbee diving into the debate. rich miller framed it up. it is about the partition of income replacement, income substitution versus applying fiscal oomph to economic growth. you get into the dread phrase, medium term. jonathan: we saw some feathers ruffled over the weekend. jared bernstein snapped. we have a treasury secretary, it is janet yellen. how did they manage the message

this week kevin:? it is a good point -- manage the message this week? kevin: is a good point. many familiar names coming to washington. the dust is settling from inauguration and there is a new type of political reality that their team has assimilated into. as they move forward, should this be a partisan battle or does this run into significant hiccups and not get over the finish line? that is when they will feel the brunt of frustration. based upon my reporting, when i talked republicans and democrats, this is a much different political landscape than the last round of stimulus. candidly, when you have mitt romney extending a political olive branch and saying he is willing to negotiate, it is a

sign the prospects of the stimulus are likely. lisa: let's get to the nuts and the bolts of the process. you talked about nancy pelosi starting the reconciliation process. they're hoping to get something together through committees by february 16, that is the deadline. who are you watching in terms of the key debates, in terms of eligibility for these $1400 stimulus checks joe is doubling down on that he would like to send to individuals -- joe biden is doubling down on that he would like to send to individuals. kevin: a lot of folks have been focusing on the tension between the democratic left and the more moderate folks. i think congress and steny hoyer is someone who has a close relationship with president biden and has been at the forefront of the infrastructure debate. he is seen as a voice in congress that is going to be watching the navigation of the

threshold debate. it is a debate many progressives are frustrated with. i think someone like congressman hoyer sees the political reality. jonathan: great to catch up. kevin cirilli in washington, d.c. this is nuanced. the definition of relief versus a stimulus. if you're offering someone who has a job a check is that relief or stimulus? for the democrats it is relief in absolute and relative terms. if you have lost a job you need relief. the way they say relief is much broader. you see it in relative terms. because of the k shaped recovery, if you have assets you did well, if you did not you got left behind. they think there needs to be relief on that. it is relief in relative terms. it is too nuanced right now, but that is the debate in d.c. tom: i go to the three month payrolls -- nonfarm payrolls,

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move higher. tom: romaine bostick, thank you. i'm running out of time. we can see the morning light with james sweeney. james sweeney with us with credit suisse. a number of call a number of years ago. he joins us, chief economist for credit suisse. should we fear inflation? james: i do not think so. i think we may get it. i think the risk of higher inflation down the road are going up with all of this policy. i'm not sure there's anything to fear. tom: not the fear, but then there is the rate of change in the analysis of all of this. i do see the vector of five-year, five years. it is an impulse for higher

inflation. do you see a rate of change that causes concern? james: i do not. i think where the global fixed income market is leaves supply and demand supported for lower long-term yields. i think they will go up but not 100 basis points or enough to imperil housing recovery. jonathan: i assume you read the piece from larry summers and the huge debate everyone is having. can you weigh in on that a bit more, your take on where you sit on this discussion? james: i've been looking for the package to come down from $1.9 trillion. 1.9 is very large. this is stimulative relief. when we look ahead to next year, i think it is realistic to get back to full employment in 2022. we will have an overshooting inflation in the coming months. it is possible we have inflation above 2%, may be a decent amount

above 2% for the next 12 months. we will take it. these are good things. we may get overheated, we may get volatile markets. we make it a cyclical -- you are putting more cyclicality into growth. there is a lot of volatility in a bill of this size. volatility is not a significant cost given the objectives involved, which is to get the economy back to full employment and soothe some of the distributional consequences. jonathan: do take issue with size alone or is it the composition? james: composition is important and i think it is part one. it is clear when this gets passed the administration will start focusing on a long-term stimulus bill with green energy and infrastructure and all of that. there is a balance between medium stimulus, how much cash

drawer is in the immediate stimulus, and what is the long-term implication? i do not think you can think about the results of this bill and the politics of this bill without realizing what is next. these are all big things and this is a major increase in the projected growth of the economy in the next few years if both of these bills get through, and even if this one just gets through at 1.9 trillion dollars or something close to it. lisa: let's talk about composition. jonathan was rightly talking about the way democrats are painting the $1400 checks as something more than just relief, but also evening out the k shaped recovery. it is an important point. is the democratic party framing this wrong? is there a cleaner economic argument for the money to be going to lower income families in that they will be spending it more quickly, where as if you have a certain threshold, a

certain cutoff, that will go directly into savings? james: $1.9 trillion or even below that, this will be enough to boost savings, to boost current spending, to help balance sheets, and to boost future spending when we finally get into a proper services recovery. i think the distribution of this, especially with the payment, will be a large improvement in the short term prospects of people with the bottom half of the income distribution. how they emphasize that is a political question. they are trying to get it passed. the beneficiaries of the checks do not care about the political operations and how they get it through. they just want to get it through, they want to get through the pandemic and get onto normal life again later this year. lisa: you agree with what janet yellen was saying when she said if they pass the bill we can get

full employment by next year? james: i think we can easily get the 5% unemployment by the end of this year with this bill, and i think late next year or percent is within reach. i think is a reasonable thing for her to say. i think the next stimulus will be right around the corner. i think in the next months will be talking about green energy and infrastructure. the question then is how to financial markets start to move in response. we see meaningfully higher interest rates? this is chasing the macro outlook substantially. tom: what is the inflation partition, services and goods? what is the dynamic. what do you foresee it in the next 12 months? james: we have had a large jump in inflation for the obvious reasons spending has been strong. spending remains lackluster.

we've all heard about the effect in the next few months. inflation measures will be going up in june. it will be more pronounced at this goods versus services level. goods inflation will jump. ppi inflation measures, looking at goods will jump in the next few months. as we get into the end of the year, there will be a shortage of restaurant tables and flights , then you can get services inflation. we need a pandemic recovery for that relative price shock to start to turn around. jonathan: james sweeney, credit suisse chief economist. straightforward economics. the point lisa made is a valid one. lower income households have a higher propensity to spend. can you define a low income household? democrats are opening up something that could be pandora's box, the $75,000 issue.

is that enough as a household? from my perspective, i'm not here to advocate for either side. what i think is important is if you start to communicate to the electorate that $75,000 is not sufficient to raise a family in the united states of america, when you start to tell the electorate that those earning 75,000 have been left behind because of perceived social justices, at least in the perception of the democratic party, i do not think you can move away from that after the pandemic. i think that is something that lingers and becomes a political hot potato the treasury has to address. tom: two ideas. it has always been there. what is interesting is the urbanization of america, which has been going on for decades and continues. you have a question will 75,000 dollars be enough to raise a family with x number of kids. the other is the use of credits. the way this is typically done are direct tax credits which

benefit the poor who needed. there is been a huge reticence to reinvigorate the credit debate of the 1960's. i did not see it right now. jonathan: it comes back to wealth inequality. olivia branch are -- olivier blanche are was trying to say do it through capital gains. there are other ways of doing this. the debate is getting fired up in d.c. it will not end after this package. tom: it is a debate of a democratic president and a democratic house and the democratic senate. that is what has changed your lisa: what is also change the debate is student loan outstanding up to $1.6 trillion. the fact that housing prices have gone up disproportionately. there's also this fast-moving experiment we are living in. we do not have data showing what that cutoff is. the amount of studies coming out to understand who is spending most, how it is going into the

economy will lay the foundation for a lot of economic arguments. jonathan: cannot agree more. we are on the same page. i'm not here to advocate for a policy. i want to talk about the questions being raised. there important questions. you want to put the hand up again? cheers from tom keene. tom: we are on the same page. jonathan: i think that is the first time i have said that in five years working with you. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. janet yellen is making her case for congress to pass the biden coronavirus stimulus plan. yellen says the u.s. can return to full employment if the package is enacted. without the package, he says it made -- she says it may take until 2025. donald trump second impeachment trial is almost certain to end

in acquittal but it will still deliver a public reckoning for his presidency and influence whether his supporters continue to dominate the republican party. the trial begins tomorrow in the senate. u.k. exports to the eu have fallen as much as two thirds fins brexit. that is according to a truckers group that sends -- that says trade is being held up by new red tape and says 75% of trucks from the eu are returning empty because there are no goods to transport. in london brent oil rose above $60 a barrel for the first time in more than a year. it is another milestone in the remarkable comeback to the biggest demand destruction in a generation. the coronavirus pandemic led to lockdowns and grounded planes. in sports tom brady is still super. the 43-year-old quarterback down -- let his new team to 831-9 win over the kansas city chiefs and the super bowl. it was brady's record-setting super bowl win. the other were with the new

england patriots. he was named the game's most valuable player. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

president biden: i think it is time for schools to reopen.

safely. you have to have fewer people in classrooms. ventilation systems that have been reworked. our cdc commissioner will be coming out with signs based judgment as early as wednesday as to what the minimal requirements are. jonathan: joe biden speaking with cbs over the weekend. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. let's get some price action. we had some weight to the s&p. all-time highs. five straight days of gains could become six. on the s&p we advanced by 12 points, and the bond market, a little bit of a lift on treasury yields taking us to the post pandemic highs of the last nine months or so. tom: some stasis but general lift as we get to the market opening two hours away. right now robert murphy. what he is acclaimed for his longitudinal studies. this is a look at studies over the lifetime, over the period of

the pandemic in this case and this horrific virus. i have been talking, professor murphy, about the everyday event , looking at the x axis of every day adding to vaccines. is that a linear trend or does it accelerate into a common benefit? robert: the administration of the vaccine? tom: yes. robert: it is pretty linear at this point. it cannot get exponential until there is more vaccine available. that will not happen until may or june. tom: if we have a linear trend, a day after day grind, when do you perceive the vaccine clicks in as a complete societal benefit? robert: in the united states, that is going to click in in the late spring. then there is going to be vaccines available for anybody

that wants it if they can find a place to get it. then the problem we will have are the people that do not want to take it. that is going to be the bigger problem. we will go from too little to too much, and the people hesitant to take the vaccine. if we do not get to the herd immunity, this just keeps going. lisa: and as this keeps going we are watching the variant from the u.k. start to accelerate in certain places in the united states. i am thinking of southern florida, miami, where that is starting to account for a greater portion of the virus cases. what is the likelihood of that becoming the dominant strain in united states in the near term and causing a bigger hurdle to get over the hump and beyond the pandemic? robert: it is happening and we cannot stop it. even though we are not testing much, we are testing a sampling. it is doubling every 10 days.

double, double, double. that adds up. the projection now is that by march it will be the dominant strain. jonathan: there've been -- lisa: there've been conflicting reports on whether this is more of your lunch strain. some reports -- a more virulent strain. based on your reports, how much more damaging is this? robert: it transmits faster. this is while we were all wearing double masks, keep with the social distancing. it spreads easier. there is no question it spreads easier. what was disturbing and came out of the london school of medicine at the end of last week is they are saying it is more lethal by 30% or 40%. tom: what does that mean for our viewers and listeners? how do you describe that?

robert: it is easier to look at a hard number. you're talking about illinois, we have like 3000 new cases every day still and we think we are happy, but of every thousand, it used to be 10 people would die. 10 out of 1000. now it will be 13 or 14 people, if this is correct. that data is not verified. they admit that. it is suspicious. lisa: based on how quickly that. is spreading, what is the percentage you estimate of the population that needs to be vaccinated for us to reach herd immunity? robert: nobody knows. we will not know until it happens. at the same time, we are in a collision course with -- with the variance which makes the vaccines not work as well. with the british variant, they

work pretty good. that should be ok. the south african variant in the brazilian one, that is a completely different story. in south africa they stop the rollout of the astrazeneca vaccine because it works so poorly. we have this pollution happening. it is going to be somewhere in the 70% to 80% range. jonathan: appreciate your time. we have to leave it there. dr. robert murphy of northwestern university. need to change track and get to this market but not where you think i will go. bitcoin. tesla invested $1.5 billion in bitcoin. tom keene, bitcoin up another 8%. tom: almost 42,000. the key headline of a set of headlines is to accept bitcoin as a form of payment, and i find that extraordinary. that would be a huge leap into

commercial use of bitcoin buttressed against government worries about the transparency in the documentation of bitcoin. jonathan: transparency and documentation is the big issue. we will say the institutional buy-in over the last several months is important because one of the biggest problems is the volatility. that is what many people would say it is not a useful currency. tom: absolutely. jonathan: if you get more institutional buy-in it should dampen the volatility and then the use case starts to build. tom: i agree. we do not need to get in all of the dynamics, but it is important you will do a 2030 -- a $20,000, 30,000 dollars transaction with bitcoin. lisa: let's provide more context. they said they expect to begin accepting bitcoin as a form of payment unlimited basis subject

to applicable laws. they may also liquidate this right after. it is a big question how much this will be used. it is interesting to see it used for commercial use. one thing i'm not hearing about is bitcoin allowed as a form of payment for taxes. that is a big issue. there is a report about how the u.s. confiscated somebody's holdings of bitcoin and they cannot get it because the guy would not give the password. jonathan: if you cannot pay your taxes with it, it is not a currency. i agree. if you can take out some of volatility, the benefits get boosted. what you're hearing from treasury, i think it is quite interesting. they may invest a portion of cash in alternative reserve assets. elon musk is a blue sky thinker, but someone has to move first and you wonder who goes next. tom: i will go back to what we hear from others, where is the

transparency, the trail of transactions visible to government? jonathan: totally agree. that is the problem. alongside lisa abramowicz and tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market at all-time highs. up one third of 1% on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> what we are seeing is these levels of dangerous optimism building. >> the market will struggle this year. >> there is still scarring in the labor market. >> what we have is a big cushion building. >> the virus has dictated the downturn and it will dictate the shape of the recovery. >> a lot of the u.s. stimulus is not stimulus at all. it is an antidepressant. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning.