>> what we are seeing is these levels of dangerous optimism building. >> the market will struggle this year. >> there is still scarring in the labor market. >> what we have is a big cushion building. >> the virus has dictated the downturn and it will dictate the shape of the recovery. >> a lot of the u.s. stimulus is not stimulus at all. it is an antidepressant. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning.

it is a simulcast, it is a monday, a snowy you will -- a snowy new york. we welcome all of you on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. lots of story threads in this hour. we will dig into government inflation interest rate dynamic. we do that with futures up 12 and yields higher. bitcoin, just between my fourth cup of coffee bitcoin went 40,000 to 43,000. jonathan: just like getting involved. cash management. maybe transactions in the future and institutional buy-in is important. it is what the bulls have been waiting for. tom: bitcoin up 15%. let's get back onto script. it is important to set up the guest for the hour where the script is not so much higher interest rates but the speed of higher interest rates. jonathan: 1.1981, post pandemic high on a 10-year treasury

yield. chairman powell speaks on wednesday. i wonder if he carries on giving the green light for the longer end of the curve. 1.20 is not a problem. when does it become one? tom: it is not only a speech someone gives, but it is a whisper line here, a whisper of a line there. you wonder how many whispers it will take? jonathan: we keep hearing policy is in a good place, but at some point that cracks. tom: lisa, i'm looking at where we are. we have to go to the jobs report. march 5 is the next jobs report and that is a huge deal for washington. lisa: it raises a question for the federal reserve. is there allowance of asset prices to continue to go up despite some of the concerns about froth and the lack of concerns about fundamental data. is it helping the employment picture? is it getting them closer to

that goal. if we have faster inflation expectations at a time we have asset prices going up because were not seeing the rise in treasury yields, at what point will federal reserve officials get uncomfortable? tom: the data is correlated. bitcoin up 14%. almost making it to 44,000. dow futures up 129. vix does not give me much information. jonathan just dropped through the bond market, 1.8% -- 1.18% on the 10 year. currencies are not getting much love. jonathan: what we have seen play out is the u.s. bias has returned to this market. the focus on the fiscal plan is bigger than anything we are seeing. the focus on the vaccine rollout. the average daily rate is getting closer to 1.5 million. a lot of people focusing on the benefits of staying u.s. centric

. when we finished last year we were talking about p.m., maybe throw in europe. i do not hear many people throwing in europe. tom: finally a pullback in bitcoin, from 44,000 down to 42,000. we will watch that through the day. it is like a gamestop. jonathan: we will get a nice email shortly -- comparing bitcoin to gamestop. tom: right now is david rosenberg of rosenberg research and we are thrilled he can join us. when you partition our present inflation and our expectations of inflation, what do you see? david: what we see is the breakeven level on the 10 year treasury getting as high as they were, getting to the peak of the last cycle. we are already well above 2%.

the market is pricing in not just recovery, but the closing of the output cap earlier than expected. it comes by surprise how quickly the market is pricing in a cycle so quickly. i think it is way overdone. the question is not so much the $1.9 trillion. it is how much of that $1.9 trillion filters through into the economy. i would have thought the markets would have recognized the survey the new york fed did a while ago following the cares act that found only 29% of the stimulus found its way into the economy. the rest went into savings, into bitcoin and gamestop and the stock market. the rest went into debt paydown spirit what i cannot correlate is the market mindset. how will we get inflation as a

household sector deleveraging? household demand for bank credit is running negative for the year. -3%. tom: you are taking a different tack. do you buy bill notes and bonds today? david: i think we are heading into a very attractive buying opportunity at the long end of the curve. it is bullish on bonds. i would be heading towards the third year, which touched 2% today. the bottom line is the fed will not be making policy for a long time. the big debate is about inflation. you have a market that is priced for inflation into the peak we had in the last cycle. that will still be difficult to achieve even with stimulus. jonathan: when we are talking

about inflation, we are talking about market-based inflation expectations. how useful are they? how useful have they ever been even where we are? how do you move 10 year inflation expectations based on what has happened in the last couple of weeks? david: the biggest correlation with the breakevens is with the cr pa -- that is real-time data. vacancy rates are going up. the rental data do not come out as crisply on the bloomberg terminal as the crv index -- the -- we had four or five of these commodity cycles. in the cycle from 2009 and 2019, they look like design waves. people got caught upsides because they believed inflation was around the corner, and then

a dominant feature of the last cycle, do we get cyclical inflation, yes, but the bigger picture is between 2009 and 2019, despite the fiscal stimulus we have and take when toppling of the stock market, the core inflation was 2.4%. to me the big picture is you have to go back a century to find the last time core inflation hit such a low level. we are heading back to that right now. i think it is a great buying opportunity. the market has priced in core inflation. the employment rate was 3.5%, not 6.3%. to me this is a great opportunity to get back into the long end of the curve. lisa: there is a difference between inflation expectation and actual belief in inflation as being born out throughout markets. how consistent is the reflation trade throughout all asset classes or is it mostly tied to

breakevens and a specific subset of the market? david: you're seeing it across a broad array of asset classes. you have the reflation trade and small-cap stocks, your seeing it in commodities, your seeing it in value that has outperformed growth. it is not just in the bond market. the inflation expectations -- i have only seen over the last couple weeks whether the inflation story will be the real story. i think the surprise of b inflation does not come back. it is endemic across every asset class we are seeing. jonathan: looking forward to geyou back. thanks for being with us. david rosenberg of rosenberg research. in your market, market-based inflation expectations are building. the cyclical trade is back on. the reflation trade is back on after stalling into the new

year. the question you have to ask from a market perspective, what are the sources of upside surprise from here on out? tom: again, it is a linear function. inflation expectations without question have a certain oomph as well. you have a consensus view and then you have eight flavors of wait a minute, it will not happen. clearly chairman powell is in the rosenberg camp where he does not by the immediate urge to be fearful. jonathan: i think the fed is willing to look through this and willing to look through it for a while. lisa: yes, although there is a concern. if david is right and inflation expectations are too high, what does that mean for broader markets given how much consensus the reflation trade has become? added to his argument is the amount of debt we have incurred, not only on a national level but also a corporate level.

jonathan: you know how this works about market biases and perception. yields up, good thing, yields down, good thing. that is how this market seems to be going. lisa: jp morgan did a correlation showing when bond yields rose, stocks have been on pace. it has been a solidly good thing and not a headwind. at a certain point you have to think when we will see consequences of this reflation? at what point will approve have to come from something substantive? jonathan: hand actions on radio. lisa: i love hand references. jonathan: i was doing that deliberately. tom: drive careful. seriously dangerous across the northeast. marty schenker came in from his summer property and said it was brutal. jonathan: am i allowed to call this cold? i thought of you on the walk in.

lisa: he remembers when it was -30. [laughter] tom: 1922, i remember it well. -21, plymouth, new hampshire, coldest ever. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ritika: treasury secretary janet yellen predicts u.s. can return to full employment next year, only if it enacts a strong enough coronavirus to millis package like the one proposed by president biden. janet yellen told cbs the job market is in a deep hole. republicans have claimed the plan is too expensive. president biden promises a different relationship with xi jinping than donald trump had. the president told cbs there'll be competition but not conflict between the nations. he said there is no reason why he is not spoken with xi jinping

yet. bitcoin rose to a record price of more than $43,000 today after tesla said it had made $1.5 billion -- it had invested $1.5 billion in the princi. -- in the currency. tesla also says it plans to begin accepting bitcoin as a form of payment in the near future. former u.s. secretary of state george schultz has died. he read diplomacy -- he let diplomacy under ronald reagan and frequently clashed with more ideological members of the administration. before that, the ivy league educated economist was labor secretary and treasury secretary george schulz was 100 years old. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> we are expecting the first quarter of this year to look like the fourth quarter of last year. we are not expecting to see much

sequential improvement in that period. as we get into the summer and beyond we start seeing demand rebound. jonathan: what a tough time to be an airline. that was jetblue ceo. good morning. a little later this year jetblue will go from the died states to london. what a time to launch that. tom: i have not researched it, but i am crushed they gave up the 747 on british airways. jetblue is being entrepreneurial. you nailed it last week. the airline recovery is not catching. jonathan: the sequencing of the reopening has shifted. travel and international travel will not be opening for a long time. tom: to be honest, jonathan lived this in capri and naples and then miami and key west. internationally it is not working. jonathan: you want me to reply

to that? tom: no. [laughter] lisa: let's talk about the gas these planes used. [laughter] tom: you nailed that. the grown-up. we are watching bitcoin. 43,000. amrita sen is a joy to speak to. what she does better than anybody is the elasticity and responsibility and supply and demand worldwide. she joins us this morning. amrita sen, you nailed it with demand elasticity being a mystery. how much of a mystery is it right now? amrita: it continues to be a mystery. even when you had 90% of world's manufacturing down, this was around march or april, oil demand only fell 20%. it does show you how inelastic oil demand is. right now globally oil demand is

down 5 million barrels per day, which given the scale of relative lock downs we are still talking about, even in places like china, is doing well. the cold weather has also helped. we have seen energy prices in asia hit record highs, and as a result a lot there has switched to liquid. that has been boosting oil. now in europe and the u.s. you also have that. definitely support for fuel potentially masking some of the weakness elsewhere. you talked about airlines. jet fuel demand is not recovering but -- marked part of the weakness. lisa: the idea opec-plus has maintained certain -- certain and producers are producing one for less oil than they were a year ago ahead of the pandemic. how high do oil prices get

before all of that supply starts flooding online? amrita: i think that is the million-dollar question right now. you're right. supply has been a critical factor and full marks to opec for how they have handled the market. this is their achievement. saudi arabia coming in with one million barrels. they will start bringing that back from april onward, but your point, shale production, we do not think it will go back to the pre-covid levels anytime soon, if ever, because they are more focused on big shareholder returns. in terms of oil prices, part of the problem is the market can see the rebound in demand coming and supply remaining tight, exactly what we are talking about right now. we will not see the actual demand recovery. this is a futures market. should prices today be $60?

no, but we are trading futures. things will get better. we also have an easy monetary policy, so much liquidity in the system. we have always cooperated on dollar plus oil in 2020 -- in 2022. maybe that is $100 now. i would not rule that out. lisa: we have been talking about how people are doubling down on the reflation trade. you do have naysayers, david rosenberg among them. also michael muller, who said the market is getting ahead of itself when it talks about oil prices going higher. do you agree? amrita: i do think if you look at fundamentals, the market has gotten ahead of itself. right now demand is still relatively weak. it is going to get better. this is a reflation trade. people are not going to wait for the event to happen. why not position now if airlines will reopen whenever that is.

that is part of the problem. you've seen this across asset classes. the reflation trade is very much in vogue. however, there will be headwinds from supply. u.s. production may not go back to 2019 levels but it will start to rise. opec compliance might start to slip a little bit. i can think this will be -- i do not think this will be a straight line higher. we are also cautious around the prompt that unsold barrels, but it does not take away from the fact the second half of the year does look much healthier in terms of demand. jonathan: 18 to $100 crude text year, the second year of the bided presidency. -- of the bided presidency -- of the biden presidency. -- get rid of the politics when you make market calls. if you based on politics you would not be $80 to $100 on

crude. tom: there is a trading range $70 to $80 and a migration back to 100. no one believes in that. how likely is it? amrita: that is an outside chance. i do not think $100 as a base case. for us the base case has been $80 next year because demand will go back to pre-covid levels and we need to see iran coming back. in the second half of the year -- we've always been clear on the timeline it will not come back before june, but with a biden presidency likely to engage with iran, volume will start to come back. once iran is back there is very little spare capacity in the system. opec will bring oil back to the market, but non-opec supply, there is no investment. everyone is going to net zero. everyone wants to be in the green, has to be guided by the green agenda. if there is no investment in the

upstream, where is the marginal barrel of supply going to come from once opec has exhausted whatever it can bring on. that is the question for next year. jonathan: come back soon. amrita sen. $60.27 on brent. wti 60-ish. year end on brent forecast is $57.70 for 2021. that is the story in the forecast. not a market that is bulled up on the south side. tom: should we have asked her the elasticity on bit dog? jonathan: go there. tom: it will not go down. jonathan: institutional buying is vital. lisa: we willie -- will we get tick by tick?

jonathan, are we on $80 watch? jonathan: who upset you this morning. lisa: [laughter] it is the hand. it got camouflaged. tom: blinded by the light. jonathan: here we go. (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that and more in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design to help you to maintain comfortable, correct form. that means better results in less time. you can do an uncomfortable, old-fashioned crunch or an aerotrainer super crunch. turn regular planks into turbo planks without getting down on the floor. and there are over 20 exercises to choose from. incredible for improving flexibility and perfect for enhancing yoga and pilates. and safe for all fitness levels.

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jonathan: looking bullish this morning. the biggest gain going back all the way to november on the s&p 500. up .4%. the nasdaq also up .4%. all-time highs this morning. the story on the equity markets, all-time highs after all-time highs, the real story is in the bond market. your new post pandemic high on a 10-year treasury yield. the interesting part about today's session, the yield is up two basis points, -42 on the 10 year. let's not lose sight of that. inflation expectations, market-based inflation expectations, backing out to

2014 levels. this one could become the political hot potato. companies now actually taking cash reserves and thinking about diversifying them into bitcoin. tesla thinking about and doing just that. bitcoin this morning up 16.67%. the bull case is simple. institutional buyers. volatility rolls over. you get more transactions. the bear case, you know it well. it is simple. it will not take a lot to crash this. tom: i think we have to stand this. that bear case is when did the governments blink? jonathan: you nailed it. we have been talking about it. one press release, this changes course. tom: on bloomberg radio, bob up in massachusetts tells tom brady

i told you to buy bitcoin at $4000. let's go to serious matters. ethan harris with the bank of america. i like how you and michelle meyer do the math. 4% of gdp is a larry summers impulse of 13% of gdp. is that too much? ethan: it is unprecedented. take the two packages together, the one passed in september and the one on the table now, it is as big as what we did last spring when the economy was in freefall, when the unemployment rate was at 14%. just these two packages, not including all the stuff they did last year, are much more than double what the u.s. did in the 2009 recession, so i describe

this as like the big gulp at 711. tom: i would not know about that. ethan: this is like tricking two. tom: i look at the other debate, which is an open and closed economy and that some of the economic templates of the past are much more closed economies. how does that fiscal stimulus affect america if we are a much more open economy now? ethan: when you put that kind of stimulus in the economy, and it will not show up right away, it will show up only reopen the service sector and all the money people have been holding goes out, but a lot of it will leak overseas in terms of stronger trade. it is going to provide a modest boost to global growth, but we still are a relatively closed economy. it will be very service focused,

all the stuff we have been able to buy -- all the stuff we have been unable to buy for a year now, and that is mainly domestic spending. it will spill over, but most will stay. lisa: how much is 2009 a comparison we should be looking at in terms of the nature of the shock as well as how quickly the economy accelerated after? a lot of people said we did not move quickly enough. this time, we went to fix that. your take? ethan: it is correct that there was not enough fiscal stimulus then. we knew that at the time, that 6% of gdp stimulus was inadequate given how massive the recession was. the other thing we knew is that they gave up too early. they stopped doing additional fiscal stimulus when the unemployment rate was still over 9% and there was no follow-through at all, but i think people are looking back at that and not taking the lesson right. we are not waiting, sitting here

at 9% unemployment. we are down to 6.3% and have not even felt the effects of the latticed -- of the latest package, so this is a strong reaction to what was a policy mistake in 2009. the other thing i would point out is, in 2009, 1 reason you had a crummy recovery was because of the banking and real estate crisis. those crises produce weak recoveries. this is different. we do not have a banking/real estate crisis. we have a healthy banking and real estate sector, so once the economy gets going, you will have a more normal recovery with or without stimulus. the 2009 analogy sounds great as a talking point, but when you look at the details of it, it is hard to justify -- you know, it is an overreaction. lisa: you are saying that you think the high asset prices the

fed is allowing to continue actually helped them achieve their goal of lowering employment and higher inflation? -- all were -- lower employment and higher inflation? ethan: it is like to accelerators -- like two accelerators and no brake. that will be a big stimulus to capital markets. the danger is not in the immediate future, but more of at what point do we say we need to apply some braking? we are starting to get inflation. how do markets adapt? the fed starts hiking. i think it makes more sense to go slower. jonathan: there has been a huge conversation over how well the treasury is working with the central bank in the u.k., europe and the u.s., but there is some tension. the objective of the fed has been to divorce asset prices

from fundamentals, has been successful. the policy objective, to boost asset prices, tackling wealth inequality. wealth inequality is now a target for the treasury. how do you track the and execute it? how are you thinking about that? ethan: i think tackling inequality is an extremely important policy objective. the question is how you do it, right? education, income distribution, changes in the tax system. those of the areas where you can eat fact performance -- where you can effect performance at the low-end. you do not address inequality by creating a huge boom that creates inflation. the solution has to be education

and redistributive tax policies. we can all agree or disagree on that from a political point of view, but those are the tools for the task, not massive monetary and fiscal stimulus. jonathan: from your perspective, it sounds like you would be in the camp of larry summers. ethan: i agree they are pushing too hard. i think that we need -- i would love to see what the economy looks like two quarters from now when we are reopened and people have been vaccinated, the service sector is coming back, and then you can figure out whether you have done enough or not. that does not mean we do not need any fiscal stimulus. we need to address the most important parts of the economy, but giving stimulus to the people who are doing well only goes into bank accounts and comes out the other end when the economy recovers. tom: what is your gdp call 12

months forward? ethan: we have growth this year of 6%. the consensus is 4.1%, so the consensus has catching up to do. we have 4.5% growth next year, but that is based on our assumption that only half of the $1.9 trillion would actually be enacted. if the whole thing gets enacted, we are going to have to revisit those numbers. by the way, that is the fastest growth since 1984, coming out of a massive recession in 1982, so we have very strong growth coming out of this recession. jonathan: ethan, thank you, sir. equity market up 14 points on the s&p 500. the debate on wealth inequality is massive because this is one part where the fed is almost working against the treasury a little bit.

not on a net basis, but on this unique situation. if you boost asset prices, one consequence, the haves have more, the have-nots do not. that is intuitive. that is why olivia blanche hard, former imf head, is saying you could look at capital gains. that conversation is only just getting started down in d.c. tom: if we get beyond the pandemic, the big comeback will be in that huge hole in the economy. the economic policy institute says it is 9 million bodies. if you extrapolate the growth we were comfortable with in december and january and february of last year, it approached 12 million bodies. those 12 million volleys will help it that inequality on track. jonathan: the professor won the argument in the last cycle. many people, including janet

yellen, now secretary janet yellen, were conditioned by the experience. that will be the test case. they are looking to do this over the next several years. tom: we will have to see on the inequality, but to me it is just get over the pandemic. as ethan harris says, we are making headway on the vaccine. it takes time. all the conversations this morning are simple. on radio and tv -- june, it is not march. jonathan: maybe later. tom: whenever. it is june. jonathan: it is not june. tom: i think people are in agreement with you. lisa: i was going to defend the fed jonathan: -- i was going to defend the fed. jonathan: were you? do we have more time? lisa: how do they move away from that without affecting income inequality even more? jonathan: i run the clock, so do

you want more time? are you sure? tom: i want to defend the weak -- weeknd. jonathan: we have all the time in the world. lisa: [indiscernible] jonathan: we catch up with matt hornbeck of morgan stanley coming up. tom: by the time you go live, we may have bitcoin at $50,000. jonathan: sincerely, have no idea. lisa: it is fine. jonathan: usually, when you have something to say, you get educated. god. the wealth inequality around this. futures up 15 on the s&p. the record high. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> i am ritika gupta.

janet yellen is making her case to congress to pass the biden stimulus plan. yellen says the u.s. can return to full employment next year if it is enacted. without it, yellen says it may take until 2025. donald trump's second impeachment trial is almost certain to end in acquittal. it will deliver a public reckoning for a presidency and influence whether his supporters continue to dominate the republican party. the impeachment trial begins tomorrow in the senate. in london, brent oil rose above $60 a barrel for the first time in more than a year, another milestone in a remarkable comeback. the coronavirus pandemic led to lockdowns and grounded planes. tom brady is still super. the 43-year-old quarterback took his new team to a win in the

super bowl. it was brady's record seventh super bowl win, the other seven with the -- the other six with the new inlet patriots. he was most valuable player. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i am afraid that the job market is stalling. we saw that in friday's employment report.

we are in a deep hole with respect to the job market and a long way to dig out. tom: secretary yellen in conversation with margaret brennan on where we are going with the job market, stimulus, and what it means. what you need to know is bitcoin is setting a bid at the $44,000 level. i am not predicting higher, but i can tell you, after the pullback almost at 45 thousand dollars, we have a nice bid, a nice technical construction. elon musk and tesla will take the balloon -- the dubloon. we spoke with howard roark. gina martin adams has had enthusiasm. reset now, gina, versus the

courage of december of last year. we are all of what, seven weeks in? we have to reframe our courage. how? gina: it is an interesting comparison. if you think about last year, we were coming out the election, the rotation into value and small-cap stocks. there is a tremendous meta-skepticism that earnings would grow at the pace expected -- there was a tremendous skepticism that earnings would grow at the pace expected. the earnings season is just blowing away expectations. companies are on much better footing than anyone thought and that is continuing to power this market higher. tom: where on the income statement is that blowing away expectations? my guess it is not revenue. is it the gross margins, 40 go deeper into the financial part of the income statement?

-- margins, or do you go deeper into the financial part of the income statement? >> faster than the five-year average. tom: i did not know that. >> it is unbelievable to have companies that migrated to the stay-at-home environment have been able to leverage low costs earnings growth. analysts were expecting a decline in sales, a decline in etf's year-over-year. when you exclude the energy sector, which is 2% of the index, but it is dragging at lower, it is expected to post 5% year-over-year. your five-year average is closer to four percent. we have seen faster growth. on the etf's, analysts were expecting a 10% decline.

in the fourth quarter, the s&p 500 was closer to 4% growth year-over-year. so it is across-the-board beating expectations and, importantly, starting to guide for better growth and 2021. -- in 2021. lisa: there are parts of the market being left behind when it comes to corporate earnings. travel, cruise liners. how are we looking at these sectors that people are betting on in hope given that the reality right now does not seem to be there? gina: i think the energy is a perfect example of that, lisa. it is the one sector that continues to post double-digit declines in etf's and sales and will continue to post decline throughout the first half of the year at least. same story with some airlines, restaurants, some of the more

economically sensitive entities within the index are struggling. the interesting thing about the s&p 500 is that it is the biggest of the big cap companies, so a lot of that weakness overtime starts to diminish. the companies naturally fall out of the index or they become smaller in market cap so they are not as big a drag on fundamentals. we tend to view this as a positive just because of the picture of the index. nevertheless, there are pockets of weakness. they are being overwhelmed by stronger growth than expected. five of 11 sectors posted positive growth relative to the expectation for a decline. the story is about much more positivity than anticipated, but there are pockets of weakness to a knowledge. lisa: when you talk about the index level, it is being carried by the biggest names. are you saying perhaps the cyclical trade, the trade into hope for the future rather than

actual, on the ground earnings or forecasts from the ceos of those companies, perhaps has gotten ahead of itself because the behemoths and winners will continue winning? >> it is a case-by-case basis. i would not paint it with one big brush, but in the case of energy, the reason that investors are piling in to energy is chasing returns, for one, but also in anticipation of inflation pressures emerging, not necessarily in anticipation that the fundamentals will approve interiorly into 2021. -- approve materially and. 2021 -- improve materially in 2021. there was room for improvement for some of these names, but at some point, you need to have the fundamentals. on a case-by-case basis, you want to be careful about pulling

this idea of a broad inflation surge, and some investors are hiding in inflation sensitive sectors that do not have support. tom: gina martin adams, bloomberg intelligence, her perspective on the markets. futures up 15, dow futures up 139. what is your observation? lisa: i have to watch bitcoin and the idea of whether it can be used as a currency. this idea you were talking about with jon about how the government could stop this rally if they came out and gave some sign they were looking at cracking down on bitcoin. they do not seem to be looking to do that especially as there is a populist tilt behind bitcoin. frankly, it is clear that there is not the political will to go against that in washington, d.c. tom: i am not saying the currency debate is so important. i am saying the debate, as is

laid out in the curse of cash, about what is it being used for and how do we monitor the flows? we came out of an ugly day in september of 2001 and decided we needed to get smart about flows. lisa: an important point. there's also the froth indicator, the idea that people believe the dollar will be less valuable going forward. you do just wonder how far that is going to go before it gets checked by something, perhaps on the ground. tom: we will see as we get closer to the opening. the vix 25.55. it has not really come in. there were a couple good charts over the weekend of where it is, where it should be, which is a couple big figures lower. it has been a really interesting monday, setting us up for a week in washington. we look to stimulus debate.

william dalian chicago -- william daley chicago will have a few bits -- william dalian chicago will have a few bits of perspective on the outcome of stimulus. stay with us on bloomberg. good morning. ♪

jonathan: good morning. the countdown to the open starts now with 30 minutes to go. equities at all-time highs. up 15 points on the s&p. a big fiscal packages on the way. >> we will go to a bigger plan. >> fiscal support. >> we are looking at $1.7 trillion. >> you cannot go to big. >> that is the focus here. >> some people are worried about the additional stimulus triggering. a hotter recovery >> we have inflationary pressures building. >> the risk is that you have got both accelerators pressed to o hard. >> you get more financial bubbles, i didn't inflationary scare. >>