♪ francine: bitcoin is surges to a record after tesla's bet on cryptocurrency. the equity rally takes a breather and investors hold stimulus prospects and rising inflation. donald trump is charged with inciting the january's extensor and on the capitol.

economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." let's look at the markets in london. overall, global equity rally pausing for breath on tuesday. investors sifting through earnings and weighing on the impact of rising inflation expectations with stocks at a record high. i am also looking at some of the other things we are watching out for. the u.s. 10 year yield at two. two -- at 1.146. junk bond yields dropping below 4% for the first time ever. investors are seeking a haven from ultra low interest rates, keep piling into asset classes historically known for high yields. let's get to the bloomberg first word news. >> house democrats have unveiled the first draft of president biden's covid relief bill. it forges ahead with plans to raise the minimum wage to $15

per hour by 2025 and make another round of stimulus payments. billions of dollars are planned for airline staff, airports, entrance. a media and pro-democracy activist, jimmy lai, remains in jail as he awaits trial. it overturns the decision of a lower court to release him into house arrest. lai was taken into custody last year under hong kong's controversial new security law. protests are continuing across myanmar after the army imposed martial law and an overnight curfew. the military wants to ban gatherings of more than five people in response to popular anger at last week's coup. myanmar de facto leader and other civilian leaders are in detention with the army defeating november's election results. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: thank you so much. let's kick off at the latest on bitcoin. the largest cryptocurrency had a fresh record about $48,000 after tesla said it had bought $1.5 billion of the token. the company said it would begin accepting bitcoin as a form of payment for its cars. it is the biggest endorsement of a cryptocurrency by a mainstream firm. the founder of galaxy digital sees bitcoin more than doubling by the end of the year. >> i originally thought bitcoin would end the year at 50,000 or $60,000. things are happening so much faster than i predicted. the corpora adoption rate, the institutional adoption rate -- corporate adoption rate, institutional adoption rate is accelerating higher than i thought. francine: joining us now is our

guest from our markets live team. he is kind of our bitcoin guru. i message him with questions overnight to understand what's going on. there is a lot of questions about the longer-term impact of this tesla investment on bitcoin. is it really going to attract more mainstream names? or is it just because elon musk, a big believer in bitcoin, is at the head of tesla and does think differently? >> i do not think you are the only one struggling to understand what's going on here. a lot of people trying to figure out exactly what is happening in bitcoin that is making it so explosive. to answer your question about elon musk, i do think elon is a little bit of a -- you know -- he's always been -- tried to do his own thing and little bit. i do not see a widespread adoption. what he has done here is really interesting. when you invest in a growth

company, a company that you're expecting to exploded to the upside, you're not expecting it to go and find alternative assets to put your money in. you are not expecting it to go find alternative investment opportunities. you are expecting it to invest in productive capacity. elon has realized that by investing in bitcoin, he can make bitcoin and tesla more attractive to a certain group of investors. that group of investors would drive up the tesla price, drives down his cost of capital, makes it easier for him to invest in production capacity in the long term. francine: there is a whole other faction of the press looking at whether he could mine bitcoin in space and things like that. is it too soon to talk about what comes afterward? let's focus on bitcoin to keep things relatively simple. the bull case for bitcoin is that more big names will come into it, it goes more mainstream. what's the other case?

it is not really regulated. we do not know how much money laundering there is in it. you've nailed it on the head -- >> you've nailed it on the head. number one, you are investing in a nascent industry. we don't know really what bitcoin grows up to be. we don't know what cryptocurrencies grow up to be. we don't know who is going to be the winner in the space. we don't know if it's going to be a theory him -- ethereum or another cryptocurrency that will feel that niche -- fill that niche. the second is, as you say, regulation, but not just regulation. there is a risk that if we see widespread adoption, that countries will start attempts to ban bitcoin.

we have not seen any regulation in this space yet. i think those two factors, i think it still makes it a highly speculative asset for most investors. it's not the right as for everybody. francine: i know you spent a bit of time looking at how much, as an index, s&p 500 investor, i actually have in bitcoin. how is that narrative going to evolve? >> i think that's really interesting. i think it's a bit of a sideshow but it's a bit funny that suddenly, i think in a very real way, bitcoin has just gone mainstream. anybody who has an etf on the s&p 500 has french exposure to bitcoin via this tesla move -- fringe exposure to bitcoin via this tesla move. bitcoin still has a vast wealth of people that have never really taken it seriously.

with every of these bubbles that inevitably lead to crashes, you get new people coming in, new people taking it seriously. we are not seeing widespread corporate adoption but we are starting to see some of the wealthy and investment community taking it a bit more seriously than they did in the last bubble phase. every time we see this new adoption, air feels like in the long term this could have legs. for cryptocurrency, is hard to see cryptocurrency disappearing completely given the size of the network and value of the network on the human capital poured into all of this. does that mean that bitcoin ultimately becomes the winner? it remains to be seen. francine: thank you so much for your insight and patience. eddie van der walt, ou markets live editor. r salman ahmed. a thing or two to say about

bitcoin. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua here in london. european equity markets are trading slightly lower today. this as investors weigh the impact of rising inflation expectations with stocks at record highs. joining us now is marija veitmane, senior multi-asset strategist at state street global markets. there's quite a lot going on. worst of all, we keep talking about this reflation trade. when we talk about junk bonds, there is a movement in the u.s. junk months, yields below 4%.

what does it say about risk appetite and how people want yield at any cost? marija: good morning, francine. good morning, everyone. what has caught my eye today is junk bond going down. it's really another kind of implementation of this kind of financial repression idea. we know that interest rates are low, real interest rates are negative and we know that's going to be the environment for a long time. investors are desperate to find anything that yields. you have junk bond yields going to the lowest level ever and that's another representation of it. if you are an investor in financial markets today, you have to take risk. i think that's pretty much the only kind of answer. if you want to find any kind of return, you have to take more and more risk. it has been working really well for some time. it has boiled down to how long we are going to see this a very accommodative monetary policy. for now, it looks like for long enough. francine: is there a concern

that actually there is too much risk out there? that we do not think enough about the unintended consequences and we do not think enough about when we start normalizing. if inflation is 2.5% this year, what does it mean for some of the risk assets? marija: yes, i think you are right. on our numbers, we probably see inflation over 3% and the second half of this year just based on last year. all things normal, we should have inflation over 3% in the second half of the year. on top of that, if you throw in some pent-up demand, we might see even higher inflation. we are probably in the camp of more transient. i think that is really the key investment question this year. unfortunately for markets, and

strategist, is probably very difficult to see how consumers will respond to kind of reopening until we reopen and see what happens. there are very few things we can kind of talk about ahead of time. we can look at -- there are plenty of kind of real-time indicators right now. we are looking at mobility, restaurant activity, returns to office. we can look at higher frequency inflation data. we need to see reopening before we can make a very serious judgment on kind of transient nature of this inflation. so, i think we are now in a watch and see kind of mode. but right now, kind of the main expectation is that policy stays accommodative, we get lots of stimulus, lots of pent-up demand. francine: what would you be considering buying right now? we are looking at junk months.

there is quite a lot -- junk bonds. there is quite a lot going on between the five and 30 year spread in the u.s., expectation that inflation will pick up in the u.s.. is that your favorite region? marija: i have to say, i have been a big bull on equities for a long time. would like u.s. -- we like u.s.. this year, we are adding emerging markets to our investment portfolios. i think materials is probably very interesting, given lots of kind of infrastructure investment and emphasis on the. i.t. stoxx, e.m. -- stocks, e.m. that's where we are. francine: if you look at the equities, is that on good earnings? we will talk about earnings and a second. we are hearing from the ecb that i guess negative rates could go

deeper given the possible recession we are seeing with mutant viruses and things like that. what does it mean for some of your appetite for european bonds? marija: for european bonds, as you are describing, interest rates are not going higher anywhere anytime, so investors are forced to take risks. in europe, we are looking at things like may be btp's that yield a little more. investors are grabbing yield where they can. trying to find some yields where we can. francine: thank you so much. marija veitmane from state street global markets stays with us and we will talk a lot more about some of the equity stories that she likes and about earnings. christine lagarde has pledged monetary support for the euro area economy and extended coronavirus lockdowns.

speaking to the european parliament, the ecb president said governments must do the same. she also warned of significant downside risk to economic activity. ms. lagarde: the renewed surge in covid-19 cases, the mutations of the virus, and the strict containment measures are a significant downside risk to the euro area economic activity. output remains well below pre- pandemic levels and uncertainty about how the pandemic will evolve remains high. francine: let's get the latest from brussels with our reporter, maria tadeo. a very clear message from christine lagarde. the ecb is staying put. what ousted you have to say? -- what else did she have to say? maria: she said this is a recovery in which the european central bank very present. this idea that risk to the european economy is still veryc.

she ated mutations is a big risk. for governments, we know that european governments are really concerned about mutations. they look at the u.k. and they see a perfect storm that could potentially happen here. she mentioned the vaccines. it's the end of the tunnel, that's her quote, but also said there is very little visibility as to what can be done. there was very little reference to the recovery fund. she said in 2020, monetary policy and fiscal policy came together in a way that was very effective for europe. she said we should try to do the same in 2021. francine: maria tadeo in brussels joining us with the very latest. coming up, as total of our france bucks the fourth quarter, we will focus on earnings. that conversation is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua here in london. let's take a look at some of the things to watch out for today. philip lane will be taking part in a virtual panel discussion at the irish fiscal advisory council conference. later this afternoon, that eu foreign policy chief will discuss the political turmoil in russia with lawmakers. finally, fourth quarter numbers from twitter following strong

numbers from alphabet and amazon last week. investors will be watching for growth opportunities and any updates on the contentious issue of content moderation. still with us is marija veitmane from state street global markets. you clearly told us that you like u.s. equities. when you look at the current earnings season, there is little visibility about what's to come but they were really supported in the last couple of quarters. where do you see the biggest growth in terms of sectors? marija: yes, no, first point to make is earnings season has been very strong. and what really struck me about q4 earnings season, particularly in the u.s., is that q4 earnings are actually higher than last year. even despite the pandemic and massive kind of destruction of capital, massive -- future unemployment, economic slowdowns, growth has been more than pre-pandemic levels.

i have to say, out of those three, i am probably less optimistic on financials, because majority of the growth came from not actual lending, but mostly from trading, investment banking. that relies on kind of market volatility and i am questionable whether it is repeatable or not. but materials, i.t. looks very interesting still. they have performed fairly strongly already but we see those sectors as kind of the major engines of growth and they should continue to be rewarded. those sectors look very interesting to us. interestingly, those sectors are among the ones who guide higher. they are among the ones that kind of garner most analyst upgrades. on kind of earnings front, they look very solid. francine: when you look at some of i guess the companies that are very dividend rich, do you

expect payouts to increase? and how much attractiveness does that bring? even if it's companies like big oil companies that will have a difficult time with climate change? marija: oil is really kind of important and interesting sector. actually, until today, until total reported, most oil majors were talking about a really difficult cash flow situation. we heard from bp, shell, chevron. companies are kind of caught between a rock and a hard place. on one hand, they are really keen to maintain their high dividend programs and that's what they are no for. that -- known for. on the other hand, they are really keen to and actually have to invest into renewable energy and kind of shift themselves to more sustainable environmental

businesses, which requires a lot of capex. the draw on the free cash flow is enormous. while we are living in a world of lower earnings. total today, they exceeded analyst expectations but still made a lot less money than previously. if you have those kind of two conflicting kind of uses for cash while source of cash is much lower, that's a really challenging situation. oil is one sector where we would be kind of less optimistic despite the economic recovery. francine: marija veitmane there, seniormost multi-asset strategist. the bond markets get an electronic makeup. we talk more about jp morgan. ♪

francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london. let's get straight to the bloomberg first word news with

leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: bitcoin has made a fresh record of $47,000. tesla announcing a 1.5 billion dollar investment in the cryptocurrency and saying it will now accept the digital coin as payment. mike novogratz think more companies will follow suit and see bitcoin doubling by the end of 2021. double cut i thought bitcoin was going to be at 50,000 or 60,000, but things have been happening so much faster. the corporate adoption rate, the institutional adoption rate is accelerating the on what i thought, so i think bitcoin could end the year at $100,000. leigh-ann: mario draghi is on track to form a government in italy, having won support of leading political parties. talks are said to have gone well and he may announce his cabinet later this week. italy is facing a deep recession

and the fallout of the coronavirus pandemic. lawyers for former president donald trump have laid out their case against his impeachment. they argue a second trial is unconstitutional because trump has already left office. and that his remarks did not invite insurrection on capitol hill. the trial is set to begin at 1:00 p.m. eastern time today in the senate. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: thank you so much. the bond market has been at the center of drama this week as inflation expectation surge. that traders are undergoing a dramatic change of their own. the pandemic may be fueling widespread adoption of electronic trading. joining us now is dani burger. bond traders traditionally

resisting the change, but now embracing electronics. dani: embracing it to the fact of 100%. so every trader in a trading survey said there will be increased adoption of electronic. these folks prefer to pick up the phone and call someone to do a trade. but what we saw during the pandemic, when you have these big volumes of debt being traded, it is easier to move that to the electronic exchange and use some of the more complicated trades -- maybe that is where i am or voice trading takes effect and to allow yourself to concentrate on that. electronic trading was the only big technological trade we saw. if we go to the next chart, the biggest tech that traders think will change things is mobile trade during -- mobile trading. this is not just retail investors, it is institutional

as well. i talked to scott wacker about this, the head of e-commerce bit trading sales at e-commerce and he said it is real. >> in many cases you have to rely on global technology if you want to trade. where quite active in the metals market in china where we have scrap dealers in various purrs of china hedging their metal risks using their phones, trading institutional loss of base metals, -- institutional lots of base metals. dani: there you have a light institutional trader in china and they are opting to use their phones to get trades done. francine: what did traders say was their biggest concern going forward? dani: there is a lot of concern, but this chunk right here is liquidity. for the fifth consecutive year, this topped the charts for biggest concern. it makes sense.

this is constantly an issue for bond market trading, the ability to buy and sell, to get the bid that you want is difficult, but these new concerns are remote working. this is the reality of the world we live in. the majority of respondents say they will be working from home. new things like infrastructure as you work from home suddenly a new issue for bond traders. francine: dani burger with the latest on what traders are doing. joining us to talk about the markets is, now med, from fidelity. thank you for joining us. the focus, a lot of the focus is on the markets, and it has caught my attention, what is going on with junk bonds. are we taking too much risk on? given the lower for longer environment we are in, are we just going to push investors

toward riskier assets that could go badly wrong? salman: i think there is no doubt that what banks are doing and will continue to do is one of the major factors behind it. if your return targets -- you have no option but to take more risk. but i think there are some factors which have mitigated the cycle. the fiscal policy that happened last year and continues to happen and potentially will be talked up again in the u.s., means that the cycle is likely to be less severe than it was after 2008, 2009, that doesn't mean that every company or every sector will be bullet proof. it will have to be, especially from a longer-term perspective, very careful about where we take these risks. unfortunately, risk-free yields are negative, and return targets are positive. that is inevitable, the

inevitable effect of what we find ourselves in. francine: we are trying to figure out a lot of questions on the longer-term implication of a name like tesla injecting $1.5 billion -- investing $1.5 billion into bitcoin. it is at the margins, but is it something that fidelity international declines to ask you about? salman: there is a lot of focus on it. we are looking at it from a strategic allocations perspective. that is a real concern, especially when you think about mixing it with other asset classes. that has to be taken into account. you have a very strong view on expected returns to justify its position in a day versus fight portfolio because volatility is off the charts compared to the

next one, emerging markets. one of the kind of riskier stuff. so you have a bit of a step change in that profile. so getting a more stable system, that is what has to be clarified as well in terms of how they are going to treat bitcoin going forward. i think we will still have to grapple with this very high volatility set up, especially when you have a longer-term -- a longer-term rise. francine: is there a snag that inflation trades will hit, or do you see this as forever moving for the next six months, even with small blip? : salman: on the inflation trade, it continues to build up. with stimulus coming through the u.s., that gives another leg up, and overall liquidity injections that are happening.

through the qe program, they are facilitating that fiscal policy spending, but i think the key in the short-term risk is still the virus and how it can drag on, so -- but i think the tougher policy is, and it has been successful so far, is to create this set up for reflation growth and inflation comes back. but qe right now is different from qe in 2008 and 2009. francine: where do you think the biggest value, or where do you say your clients should be invested? what is your ideal portfolio right now, given all the confluence of things that we are seeing in the market? salman: still we like a part of equity market valuation. it signal -- signals in some part of the market are concerning us, but it is not like a blanket statement you can

make. for example, in the u.k. we are positive on u.k. equities. vaccination programs are very strong, and the person holding is near zero. everybody we speak to is underweight, and for good reason can historically -- good reason historically, that is one area we would like to flag. in the end, there is a lot of differentiation happening. there are beneficiaries from fiscal stimulus coming from the u.s.. mexico is one. south asia, like india. so there is a lot of opportunity still, and i think overall the liquidity set up globally -- the equity set up globally is still a tailwind, but we have to be careful that we don't get ourselves into areas where valuations are starting to get a little bit trickier. francine: we will talk about those valuations being tricky

shortly. salman ahmed from fidelity international stays with us. coming up, much more on our top story, driven higher by tesla. bitcoin bounces to another fresh hi. we will discuss what is next for the world's biggest cryptocurrency. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london. let's get straight to your bloomberg business flash leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: read it has raised 250 million dollars from private investors, pushing its value to $6 billion. it is riding a wave of -- as

stockmarket friends a. the platform plans to spend more on its advertising business, expand internationally come and add video tools. the french financial group bpce is in talks to buy out minority shareholders of his investment banking unit net texas. it could make a former -- a formal offer this week from the roughly 30% it does not already own. it has a value of 12 billion euros. and a disappointing quarter for big oil with results that beat expectations. the french giant is proving more resilience than its peers during the downturn in the industry, while -- tou thao has kept its dividend and led the way on green investments. even proposing changing its name to total energies.

that is your bloomberg business flash. francine: we are getting headlines from the world health organization. let me sift through my bloomberg to make sure that i have the exact ones. we were following a press conference in wuhan just seconds ago. a weeklong investigation, a number of members from wuhan were talking from the world health organization -- from the world health organization were talking about exact what they have seen in wuhan. so the very latest on the headlines. they understand that the first covid came from animals. let's get more thoughts from salman ahmed. thank you for staying on. we want to talk about ecb and negative rates, but there does seem to be an ever higher market valuation, and we know the underlying reasons with the central bank. but then also these concerns

about virus mutating, the fact that certain vaccines may actually not work. how do you match up the two he ? salman: there is no doubt that over the last few weeks we are getting to a stage where -- with how it plays with the vaccines, and more evidence shows that these mutations are not a zero sum game when it comes to being confronted by the vaccine. so paradoxically what we have been discussing is that -- the fact that the pandemic to keep the situation intact, we keep providing liquidity in this fiscal stimulus. that is where the market seems to be focused more about, so in a way that news is starting to turn into positive news, especially when you look at the

policy side of things. that links up with evaluation point you mentioned, whereby a lot of the underlying support is coming from the fact that central banks are -- with fiscal stimulus and most visible in negative real rates. so the last couple of months, most of the moves in interest rates in the u.s. have come from breaking even while real rates remain around 1% levels. so that is coming into play, paradoxically, quite complicated, and i think valuations paradoxically can be supported by this continued policy support which is being put in the system. francine: is there anything in bubble territory? if so, how we define bubble, is there a danger that something is in bubble territory that could be bursting in the next six to

10 months? salman: looking at historical evidence, living proof of these moves in the market, to tell when it will happen, what is important is to map what is next. we know a bit of an issue of debt in the system, the central banks are supporting that. we also know that equity markets, part of the equity markets in the next phase, in terms of valuation, how far they are with historical levels, so it is important to keep a very close eye on these factors, especially if the credibility of the central bank policies coming to, under the scanner going forward. so when next i think is very tough. what is easier is to map what next, so in terms of the vulnerability of the system, i think that stems from very high

debt ratios and the credibility of central banks to make sure that these debt ratios remain stable and sustainable. francine: speaking of that, yesterday we heard from mario draghi, the premier designate in italy, talking about projects and for the first time he seems to be getting everyone on board, these warring factions. we also heard from the european central bank president, christine lagarde, asking for more coordinated action between monetary and fiscal because things could get worse. is there a worry that europe could go into negative rates, and what does that mean for your appetite for european assets? salman: as you pointed out, i think there have been a lot of focus coming through on how far rates can go further down in the euro zone, and i think there is -- especially from the hawks in the ecb, saying that that things

turn to the more dangerous side, that the cutting of the rates does not give you that benefit anymore. it actually may be a little bit beyond -1%. so i think it has to do with currency, and we know that the cut and deposit rates can have a meaningful impact. this is something that is becoming a pain point for the ecb, because the implication of the currency has come fast. and it is affecting their inflation target, well below the target and are likely to remain so. so i think the program which can be standard -- i think it is a little more of a clearer way to show that fx is a problem for the ecb. francine: thank you so much, salman ahmed, from fidelity

international, joining us with some really great insight into what he is looking at. coming up, trump's second impeachment trial opens today. emma kratz say they have overwhelming evidence of guilt -- democrats say they have overwhelming evidence of guilt. we discuss a historic day in washington next. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london. they have never been -- there has never been a day like this in the senate. donald trump faces an unprecedented second impeachment trial beginning today. it will start with the debate on whether the proceedings are constitutional, then tomorrow the house impeachment managers and trump's defense team will get up to 16 hours of presentation. he is virtually assured of acquittal. it would take a two thirds majority to convict him.

stephanie baker, good morning. it is going to be a busy couple of days for you. what is trump's defense, and how will democrats respond? stephanie: trump's lawyers are arguing that the impeachment is unconstitutional, and that he was exercising his first amendment right in his speech before the rioters attacked the capitol building. we have this vote that shows that 45 or 50 republican senators voted to say that they think the trial is unconstitutional, and the question is, will that calculation change? we had a prominent republican lawyer, charles cooper, right in the washington journal -- in the wall street journal say that the senate is given the power to bar officeholders from holding office again, and democrats will

respond to this argument from trump's lawyers saying that they have the right, clearly based on precedent, to hold an impeachment trial, even though he has left office, and that he is not covered by the first amendment, that the first amendment is to protect citizens from the government, and that what he has done, what he did was incite rioters against the government. i think the real question is, will there be witnesses, or will this be a superquick trial? trump has declined to be a witness. all 100 senators voting on it were indeed witnesses because they were there. on the day of the riot. you know, i think the question is, you know, how much videotape evidence will emerge that we may have not seen already, and will they really get to new evidence about what trump was doing during the riots. remember, he sent out a tweet while the right was happening, calling president mike pence a

coward. what else was he doing? francine: thank you so much. we will have plenty more with stephanie baker throughout the day, and we will see if he does get acquitted, what happens to donald trump in the next couple of months, and whether he is really running for the next presidential election. bloomberg surveillance continues in the next hour. tom keene joins me in new york. market checks today -- not only looking at bonds but also what is going on in europe. the big story for today, besides the 30-year spread, is exactly what is going on with junk bonds in the u.s. below 4%, i think for the first time ever. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: bitcoin surges to a

record after tesla's bet on the cryptocurrency. mike novogratz sees the price doubling to $100,000 by year end. the global equity rally takes a breather as investors mull stimulus prospects and the impact of rising inflation expectations. and donald trump's second impeachment trial starts in the senate today. he faces a charge of inciting the january 6 insurrection on the capitol. conviction is low. good morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london, tom keene in new york. i know we look at politics, we look at what is happening with the european central bank, but i would suggest that we go markets to markets today. looking at the u.s. junk bond yield, they capture the imagination edition -- the imagination of a lot of the markets today. you wonder how much more risk with -- how much more risk people are willing to take on. tom: a continuation of 2020 come as you say, theom