♪ >> what we are seeing right now is just levels of dangerous optimism building. >> what we have is a very big cushion that has been building in excess saving. >> a lot of the u.s. stimulus actually isn't stimulus at all. it is an antidepressant. >> we have a more normal recovery with or without the stimulus. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures down about four points on the s&p 500, -0.1%. we are just off of all-time highs on the s&p 500. tom: i'm going to call it a correlated pause. i thought jim caron was

brilliant on friday. he's focused on the real yield and the immovable object i see is a -1.06% on the 10 year real yield. that is depressed and driving a greater negative statistic. jonathan: i was catching up with my producer jamie earlier this morning -- tom: you have a producer? how come i don't have a producer? jonathan: he asked, how hot is too hot? that's the question we are trying to ask on this program. how hot is too hot, and how big is too big in washington, d.c.? tom: a little bit of distraction today with the impeachment, but the stimulus conversation drives forward and affects every conversation of the market, including dow 31,210. lisa: how hot is too hot? we have to look back to 2009. people are drawing parallels to

that. the jobs recovery was sluggish. a lot of people agree on that. 10:00 a.m., we will get u.s. december job openings data. bloomberg economics expects a slow that goes through the end of the month, so it gives you a more updated look at what we were seeing back when we were seeing some alleviation from the ship down, but still a very much -- from the shutdown, but still he very much damage to company -- damaged economy . we get start of the trial of former president trump. does it affect the economy? no. will we be watching and discussing it? yes. , harris and -- kamala harris and treasury secretary janet yellen will be meeting with business leaders. they're going to have a very steep deficit. what are we going to get for our money?

what is the biggest bang for our buck for the stimulus? jonathan: it is as if no one realized how big $1.9 trillion really was until last week. it was like a light went off. larry summers put a piece in the "washington post," and all of the sudden it is too big. tom: illiberal economist to his way on front on this -- a liberal economist who is way out front on this, says plus 9% gdp is a whopping 13% of gdp. that is a big number. jonathan: equity market, all-time high across the session yesterday. just a mild pullback on the s&p this morning area out about 0.1% , still 3900. in the fx market, euro-dollar back through $1.21, up by about 0.5%. yesterday session, just south of

$1.20. tom: i know we've got to get to our esteemed guest. the russell 2000 on a log basis has got little league curvature. it is a little convex up. jonathan: small caps to the moon . in november, when a lot of the outlooks were written for 2021, 3800, 3850 was bullish. we've had almost a 20% move since the end of october. tom: howard ward yesterday flat out said 4400 spx. that is new statistic. lisa: we have to mention the fact that junk bond yields fell below 4%. jonathan: lisa, we were getting there. we were getting there. lisa: but carry on. tom: jon and i on purpose were holding off on that just to get you going. [laughter] jonathan: ok, let's do this. drug -- troy gayeski is waiting

very patiently, of skybridge. but go on. lisa: we can't really call this high-yield bonds anymore. there's a question of at what point we are creating so many zombie companies, but what the long-term consequences are. it definitely gives some people pause when you think about what you're getting for your money. at a certain point, why not go into equities with a bigger upside if rates do rise? jonathan: you already know what my counterargument is going to be. lisa: we've done it before. jonathan: let's get to troy. troy gayeski of skybridge. is it about the real yield? troy: it is really about an overwhelming amount of monetary stimulus in the system.

rates haven't caught up yet, and there isn't income. the only markets in the world that still have meaningful cash flow are in structured credit because they got hammered so bad in march, and the fundamentals still look fairly attractive. but from our perspective -- and thanks for calling me esteemed -- but if you're going to make a choice right now and where you want to be in the capital structure, at least in the equity part you still have meaningful upside. this waterfall of cash in fiscal stimulus can drive higher. yes, you can get spreads tightened more, but high-yield hasn't been high-yield for the last six months at least, right? from our perspective, you have massive money supply that is just driving all risk assets higher. tom: i've been dying to ask you this question. what have you learned as an observer of hedge funds about gamestop and all that, robinhood

and all that, and the long/short structure of the hedge fund world? is it frederick changed -- is it forever changed? troy: forever is a strong term. obviously gamestop, amc, they behave very similar to what happened in the late 1990's, but just on steroids, just like everything in this post penned bank period -- this post pandemic period. they are moving up in market cap in terms of the shorts they have on, getting even more diversified. typically the short positions are 1/4 to 1/3 of their l ongs. if you are concerned about systematic risk or beta, there's nothing wrong with using futures or etf. but most importantly, avoid crowded shorts. that is shorting 101. i understand the profit motive, but you should never be in shorts with more than 30% short

interest outstanding. that's some of the changes taking place right now. lisa: to build on what tom was talking about, there's a sort of larger question here. can hedge funds get really outsized value? can they really find elsa in a world dominated -- find alpha in a world dominated by hedge fund the quiddity -- hedge fund liquidity? troy: the hedge fund industry as a whole did very well last year, particularly in march. it has always been challenging to make money on the short side. most investors expect to lose money through short over time, but one of the keys is to stay in the game. minimize downsides like march or the euro zone crisis so you can protect the downsides and then go on offense. that being said, the industry is more net long and they have been in quite some time because after

a fairly good buyer's news, never ending fiscal stimulus that many would argue is too large, it has always been hard, but this year there's been more alpha on the long side and negative alpha on the short side. jonathan: final question for lisa, drumroll. [laughter] this is a dedication. do we have an asset shortage? do we need to wish you more debt, troy -- need to issue or debt, troy? troy: that's a great -- issue more debt, troy? troy: that's a great question. people don't look at the asset side of the balance sheet. so as the fed reflates and prints more money, and the government issues more debt, what's happened this past year is the value of assets has gone up far more than the value of

debt, so you could argue that one way to cure that is to print more debt. however, the best argument is to have fiscal stimulus that goes after those in the most pain and doesn't continue to create mini bubble after mini bubble that will ultimately create a hangover when the fed is forced to tighten. there's a hangover after the late 1990's, a housing bubble in 2005-2006. there was a mini oil bubble in 2008. for the time being, you want to monetize that, but you have to have an eye on money supply growth. jonathan: troy, great to see you. looking well. tom, i think it is the question, and too many people it might sound counterintuitive, but i can pick out market aftermarket and go through the dynamics and basically paint a picture where there isn't enough debt.

we have an asset shortage. the commercial paper market running out in germany. that has been a problem for the -- for a long time. tom: it is cyclical. it is very much historical as well. you go back to graham dodd, and the waves over time of what is the appropriate amount of debt is tangible. i would suggest when you look at big tech is a perfect example, they are boxed in. they need more debt. what you do with the money? it is this liquidity event that is out there, and not only what it does to the outside where the alpha is created, but to the downside. did you notice abramowicz with the usage of the greek letters? lisa: ok, we did that. on asset shortage, would we still be talking about this if we weren't looking at the trillions of dollars and the balance sheets of central banks? that's why we are talking about it. so how can you talk about a

shortage of debt if there is a big buyer who just keeps ubering -- just keeps hoovering up all of the debt? do you keep issuing more debt, or say don't buy as much? jonathan: ok. one for the news conference. maybe one for chairman powell wednesday. tom: let's focus. bitcoin at $5,000. jonathan: let's do that. tom: matt miller is going 55, 57 times. jonathan: i remember when matt miller bought pizza for a bitcoin a decade ago. [laughter] matt could have retired. good morning for our audience worldwide. a fired up abramowicz this morning. this will be fun. someone's getting hit. on sirius xm channel 119, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word

news, i'm ritika gupta. there's never been a day like this in the senate. donald trump faces an unprecedented second impeachment trial beginning today. it will start with a debate on whether the proceeding is constitutional. tomorrow, the house impeachment managers and trump's defense team each will begin up to 16 hours of presentation. the former president is virtually assured of acquittal. it would take a 2/3 majority to get a conviction. in myanmar, police fired rubber bullets, tear gas, and water cannons at crowds. b and marv -- myanmar's military leader has publicly defended his actions, claiming the election was tainted by voter fraud. tesla revealed that it had bought $1.5 billion of the world's largest digital currency. the company also said it would accept bitcoin as a form of

payment for its electric vehicles. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ when you switch to xfinity mobile, you're choosing to get connected to the most reliable network nationwide, now with 5g included. discover how to save up to $300 a year with shared data starting at $15 a month, or get the lowest price for one line of unlimited. come into your local xfinity store to make the most of your mobile experience. you can shop the latest phones, bring your own device, or trade in for extra savings. stop in or book an appointment to shop safely with peace of mind at your local xfinity store.

sen. schumer: the second impeachment trial of donald j.

trump will commence, the only second impeachment trial of a president in history. jonathan: a historic day down in washington, d.c. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's your equity market this tuesday morning, just off all-time highs on the s&p 500. no drama on the s&p, down about five points, negative zero point 12%. if you get to euro-dollar, dollar just a little bit weaker here. yields back in by a couple of basis points to 1.15%. the commodity rally is really starting to catch steam in energy. yesterday in the energy market, stocks absolutely flying. crude supportive of it. tom: amrita sen was outstanding

on it, framing a range out to $80 a barrel. thought that was a really important discussion. right now, kevin cirilli on impeachment watch, our chief correspondent out of washington. we have shelby of alabama retiring, to of pennsylvania retiring, and all of these other names -- toomey of pennsylvania retiring, and all of these other names. now the senator of kansas. how does senator moran adapt to his republican in this impeachment? kevin: the same way chairman ron johnson has adapted to the republican party. it is a great point because i think yesterday, when i was talking to sources on the republican side, what they told me is that right now, there is a power vacuum in the republican party. from the political perspective, where to look at the republicans and their comments during the

impeachment trial, it is going to be a very telling sign for the various republican camps ahead of the new midterm and presidential cycles. tom: will the former president be visible in the process? do you foresee that donald trump will be silent, ensconced in florida? or will he be visible through the process? kevin: he will be releasing through his attorneys and his spokesperson some statements, i'm told, as they have done over the last couple of days. but again, remember, his favorite use of communication, his twitter, he has not been able to utilize that social media platform. in terms of the process, the timetable, 16 hours each for opening arguments known to be kick started this afternoon. senate majority leader chuck schumer has said it will likely take until sunday or early next week for the trial to be finalized. again, based on the public

comments of republican senators, it is very unlikely there will be a conviction in the senate. jonathan: this market was unmoved on the day of the writing, and this market is unmoved today -- of the rioting, and this market is unmoved today. the market is more interested in what might not be done over the next couple of days because the attention is elsewhere. where does this effort go right now? kevin: the issue of the stimulus and the $1.9 trillion is very removed from the trial in the senate, but the process of reconciliation, and which they will have to juxtapose the house and senate version of the bill, typically that can actually take several months, but president biden, as well as treasury secretary janet yellen and their economic team, have really been at the forefront of saying this

has to be done very quickly. it has caused some republican pushback, but democrats are all still in line as of now to get this over the finish line, and anywhere from three to six weeks is the timetable they would like to see. lisa: there's quite a bit of reporting that joe biden's strategy is being colored by his experience in 2009, when he believes the package they put out was too small to stimulate the economy. that president obama compromised too much with republicans, and as a result, the recovery was sluggish. how much support does that theory have on a bipartisan basis? kevin: 100% from the democrats, with the exception may be of larry summers, but on the right it is very divisive. in fact, i would say it is about 70%, if i had to put a number on it, for republicans against this. but the reality is the polls are

different than the elected officials in office on the republican side. the stimulus plan, according to recent polls that have come out, is incredibly popular among republicans and democrats and the voters that are for this. but the rank-and-file members, the american prosperity organization members of the world, are making a political bent that the stimulus is a can't -- political bet that the stimulus is akin to the tea party movement that rose after 2008. others have said that is not the case because this is a very different because of economic downturn then in 2008. it is a fascinating political bet that a lot of 2024 candidates will be weighing. tom: how does kevin mccarthy adapt to that? kevin: i was struck by that, and they have noted that he has been

really upfront and saying he feels he can talk to anyone, whether it is former trump and mar-a-lago or congresswoman liz cheney. he is one of those republicans say and he is ember of leadership in the republican caucus, and that he is going to talk to all different factions of his party. jonathan: kevin, thank you. always good to you. just to touch and on the price action this morning, we look a little something like this. equity down about four points on the s&p, down about zero point 1%. euro-dollar, $1.21. your bond market, 1.15%. tom: i'm going to go to the blunt instrument like dean curnutt. the vix refuses to come in. i'm sorry, the vix has a volatility regime that is starkly different than what we have seen over the last number of years.

at this price point, to be charitable, that ought to be a 19. i think pros would say even less. jonathan: if you want to talk about a high vol speculative outfit, bitcoin has been on the move. tesla giving it some credibility, i think. speculation is the right word. tom: i'll be honest, i am revisiting the doom and gloom on bit going -- on bitcoin. i'm reading a doom and gloom outlook from 2016 or whatever. jonathan: we are learning as we are going, but the bull thesis, this was part of it. tom: nova gratz, they look like

geniuses right now. jonathan: i don't know about just yet. tom: it could be fourth of july. [laughter] jonathan: someone might click this, so i am not going to push back too far. lisa: come on, let's hear it. jonathan: on bitcoin? are you frustrated with your weight and health? it's time for aerotrainer, a more effective total body fitness solution. (announcer) aerotrainer's ergodynamic design and four patented air chambers create maximum muscle activation for better results in less time, all while maintaining safe, correct form and allows for over 20 exercises. do the aerotrainer super crunch. the pre-stretch works your abs even harder, engaging the entire core. then it's the back extension, super rock, and lower back traction stretch to take the pressure off your spine and stretch muscles. planks are the ultimate total body exercise. build your upper body with pushups. work your lower body with the aerosquat. the aerotrainer is tested to support over 500 pounds.

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♪ jonathan: from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance" for our audience worldwide. live on bloomberg tv and radio, a bit of a boring morning. boring relative to people driving stocks to all-time highs, there's the caveat. we are pulling back from all-time highs. a record gig a lot of attention -- a record getting a lot of attention, high yield. this one is for lisa. lisa: thank you. jonathan: high bond borrowing cost, junk-bond borrowing cost, relative low. treasuries haven't been where they are in the last 12 months ever. here's the spread, one year. the pre-covid highs just north

of 3.1. this is important, i agree. i agree that the average duration of this index has gone a little longer as well, so that record is all the more impressive, but relative to treasuries, we are at the pre-pandemic tights. yes, energy has been taken down, but energy has been supported by this. crude rallying really nicely, back to $58 on wti. we have $60 billion of high-yield supply in the high-yield get, and about 1/3 of that was in the energy segment. that has been supported by this. i think it is really important to get your hands around here. it is not about the headline record low borrowing costs. that was great. it is about where we are relative to the benchmark, and relative to the benchmark, we are not there yet. there's a little bit more to go. that was for you, lisa. lisa: thanks. jonathan: we want to go to romaine.

romaine: a big mover, this maker of perfumes and beauty products. if you are looking for some action in the market, a lot of it is going on in this sector. tilray saying they had a structured deal to distribute cannabis products in the u.k.. you are seeing a lot of those names rise. cannabis attribute in a lot of its growth to these martha stewart themed products, including a big 15 flavor pack of gummy's you can get just in time for valentine's day. if you are into bitcoin, everything bitcoin rallying once again. microstrategy rallying once again. we had the ceo on last night, and he talked about how he's been evangelicizing putting

going on the balance sheet. 1400 firms, according to him, were on that call. we know tesla and elon musk listened, calling him a genius for putting his balance sheet aligned with bitcoin. a big deal here, electronic arts by and gloom mobile, probably best known for "dear hunter -- for "deer hunter" and the kim kardashian mobile game. another mobile company higher here on the back of that speculation. tom: romaine, thank you very much. we have rebounded nicely in the last hour, 46,300 on the dow. this is a hugely popular interview a number of weeks ago. mark mccormick revisits, td bank

global head of fx strategy. mark mccormick absolutely nailed dollar strategy and dollar strength. we haven't seen that, and now we see it way away from the weak dollar consensus. you reaffirmed dollar strength. it is a noodling dollar strength, or can it be big figure moves? mark: it is a bit of a nuanced dollar strength. it depends on what currency you are looking at and how you think about reflation. it is definitely dollar strength against the euro, but it also depends on some of the other european currencies. the way i think the markets need to internalize this, through the pivot and transition it creates more volatility come but on the other of it, is this dollar exceptionalism or just a squeeze in conditioning? markets aren't really sure whether it is that story, but this creates a much more

de-dollar structure where you could -- a much more decorrelated dollar structure where you don't have to have a big dollar theme. i think that's part of it where the dollar performs, but you could still see other currencies perform well. you could see a reflation trade on that basis. tom: these dynamics, interest rate based? relative growth based? or is it flows? mark: it is definitely relative growth. the euro is kind of morphing itself into a key funding currency because the europeans are not attracting any equity flow which to think goes back to the growth story we talked about last month. the u.s. growth story is catching most people off guard. they are not sure whether this is positive or negative for emerging markets largely because you see u.s. rates rise off of u.s. growth stories, and that

this entangles the carry story a bit. but it seems like we are moving into a sweet spot where the euro becomes a funder. you think about the prospect in the second half of the year, where emerging markets can start to get vaccinated, and you start to see the sink and efficient story work a little bit better. we still have some -- the synchronization story work a little bit better. we still have some way to get there. jonathan: you are bringing up some important questions. if the euro becomes the funding question again, how does it para up with risk appetite globally -- how does it para with risk appetite globally -- how does it pair up with risk appetite globally? mark: the ecb balance sheet is expanding faster than the feds. you are seeing the broad balance of payment in the euro zone's deteriorating, which is

regardless of the current capital account surplus. i think a big part of this is if you are thinking about reflation dynamics improving in the second half of the year, the euro becomes the mechanism from which you buy, largely because the ecb is likely to do more rather than less, and the fed is likely to be neutral rather than hawkish. what you are expecting comedy bottoming in u.s. real rates, potentially higher nominal rates off the basket for -- off the back of fiscal stimulus, the balance sheet is becoming the quasi-driver of risk assets around the world. lisa: potentially more people are interested in what you have to say now more than ever. we've always been interested. but there was a great story yesterday talking about people who have 60/40 bond portfolios are taking a look more at currencies because bonds are so boring and they are investing more and more in trading currencies. are you seeing that?

some of these bets you are talking about, inflation and the dynamic between central bank liquidity, is being more pronounced in currency rather than bonds that have been manipulated by central banks. mark: it's a great point. there's definitely a lot more discussion. last year during the pandemic, there was not a lot of discussions like relative macro, which country is doing better than the others. one way to think about this is we track this economic dispersion index, which tells us how much variance there is on a year-end basis. that indicator is telling you ethics volatility should be three time -- telling you fx volatility should be three times where it is. for the next year, year and a half, there's a lot of focus on countries, especially through the vaccination process, some countries look better than

others. norway looks like the leader across europe. so it is norway, sterling, and hero. there are clear trades emerging here. i think you need to go back to bitcoin. it is a digital currency or people are thinking, what alternatives can we look at? something that we can diversify our portfolio that we use to just use gold for. so i think it is clear that currencies are becoming quite interesting, and people are looking at it as a form of growth, and whether they want to be hedged in those equity decisions. jonathan: a final point for me. is it just competitive with broad-based fiat currencies, or a particular currency? mark: i think it is competing in the space of gold. it is definitely something much more focused on the speculative community. obviously central banks are

thinking about it as well because of what is happening in china. the pboc is driving the move towards digital currency, but that has been a holdover from private society there. it is euro-dollar, renminbi, and bitcoin. in some sense, they are on the french, but it is something people are thinking about in a way to think about macro risks. our macro risk model shows may be 9% of it. so it is not broader global macro, but it is starting to come into the conversations where you want to relate it to a bunch of different assets. jonathan: great conversation. mark, love having you on. come back soon. mccormick there of td bank. -- mark mccormick of td bank. tom: the absolute ambiguity over yen, we didn't get to it, but

he's got a swiss franc/japanese yen pair in his trade of the week. i get the mystery of the euro, the whole vaccine overlay. i really wonder what yen will be doing, and i can't get much conviction out of people. jonathan: not much conviction in the fx market. we came into the year looking for a weaker dollar. a massive short growing on top of it. a challenge to that emerged in the first weeks of the year. tom: it did. mike mccormick of a call of stability -- mark mccormick with a call of stability. i don't think we see yet a strong reaffirmation of euro-dollar. jonathan: a weak dollar this morning against the whole of g10? lisa: this has to do with vaccination schedules and the idea of stimulus. deeper deficits doesn't mean with your currency. it means stronger recovery. tom: are they selling out to buy bitcoin? lisa: no, i think that's what mark mccormick was saying. he was saying it is really going

to compete with gold. jonathan: you almost weighed in on that. lisa: that's what he was saying. jonathan: you almost did, too. what is your perspective? jonathan: page eight of the outlook for the g10 currencies. [laughter] a bit deeper into the outlook for 2021. tom wants a price target, a time horizon, all of the above. futures down four, down -0.1%. from new york city this morning, good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. it is a trial where the verdict is almost preordained. the unprecedented second impeachment trial of anil trump begins today in the senate. he's almost certain to be acquitted. 67 votes are needed to acquit. that would mean 17 republicans

crossing the line to vote with democrats. discussion will happen today on whether or not the trial itself is constitutional. two of the federal prosecutors will be asked to stay on because they are working on politically sensitive cases. one is on an investigation into the president's son hunter. the chief financial officer of eli lilly has resigned over allegations of inappropriate personal relationships. the drugmaker says an independent investigation found what it called consent to inappropriate communications between him and certain employees. they say his conduct was not related to any business matters. the fast spreading coronavirus variants found in the u.k. has found a foothold in florida. that prompted concerns about fans who flooded the streets in tampa after sunday's super bowl.

florida leaves the u.s. and confirms that the variant has 201 infections. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> things are happening so much

faster than i had predicted. the corporate adoption rate, the institutional adoption rate is accelerating beyond certainly what i had thought about. i think bitcoin could end the year $100,000. jonathan: i think everything in this market is happening quicker than expected. good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. it's get you set up for the market day, just very quickly. your equity market is pulling back from all-time highs on the s&p 500, down 0.2%. dollar weakness today through all the g10. euro-dollar briefly kissing $1.21, one dollar $.19 now -- $1.21, $1.19 now. can we get a snapshot of bitcoin quickly? rolling over just a little bit. just about positive on the day

still, up about 1.5%. $45,400 after a $48,000 print a little bit earlier. tom: michael mcglone has done the best work on bitcoin. he's looked at the dynamics of it, the market features of it. he's clearly been way out front on a vector of moving higher. michael mcglone joins us this morning with bloomberg intelligence. i want to go back to the principles. there are things called miners. who are those guys? michael: it is a global, decentralized group. come 2024, it will drop to 450. so i analyze it as miners, it matters to them, but from a strategist, this is a set schedule.

the only thing that matters is demand. it is only 900 today. tom: page one of every economics textbook, including the ones janet yellen studied, is about scarcity. it is a manufacturer, the critics would say, contrived scarcity. that always means the various elements come into force the scarcity away. who are those nefarious elements that could take the scarcity built into the price increase? michael: there's 8001 a be cryptocurrency -- there's 8000 one a be -- there's 8000 wannabe cryptocurrencies out there. it's been killed many times. it keeps coming back.

robustness. it is now they go to digital asset. lisa: i just had this image of butch cassidy at a computer, plugging in algorithms. it is quite an image. there's also a question about just how much institutional adoption there is. this was raised by tesla yesterday saying they will soon accept bitcoin as a form of payment. can you give us a sense of truly how widespread this idea is for major corporations, whether you actually expect some announcements in the near future from other major companies about doing the same? michael: initially it was a tsunami, and it is just getting started. we are talking about u.s. companies that do not have that -- that does not have that reserve currency. it is part of the reason we went to $30,000. i think that is the reason $40,000 is just going to continue. something has to go wrong. i'm not sure what it is now, but it is not unique face -- in that

unique phase where you just focus on your next resistance around $50,000. jonathan: do you think it makes it more complex, more difficult for the government to step in and do something? mike: they're going to keep going. tom: but that's not government. that is establishment of a market. jon is talking about government regulation of a nonfinancial, nonpoint -- nonfinancial non- coin. when does that happen? michael: -- mike: they've been under that purview since 2019. now the market cap is around $29 billion. do you think they have done anything illegal since this?

organic demand. the world wants a digital currency and a digital dollar, and it is getting it. the regulation is getting there. jonathan: how close do you think we are to a very well-known american company that is not run by elon musk doing exactly what elon musk announced yesterday? michael: it is -- mike: it is inevitable. i don't see what is going to stop it. jonathan: wow. mike mcglone joining us there from bloomberg intelligence. it is inevitable. tom: i am trying to be careful, jon. radio and tv, that could be difficult. it is a hope -- it is open to huge debate here. we had a lot of discussion. lots of people clearly have the upper hand in lifting bitcoin. jonathan: i will say, there's

some really intelligent people, and it is just nasty. if you say anything against bitcoin, people fill your inbox with really nasty stuff which i don't really understand. what is it about that element of it, the almost religious aspect to it that if you push back a little bit? tom: it is like gold or silver. william jennings bryan, same emotion. lisa: i will say, bitcoin grew out of a feeling that there was a gold decentralized currency away from government. there was an independent streak that has given voice to a lot of individuals. tom: but that is the question, when do they step in? jon's question was the number one question. i hate to say that. it is killing me. lisa: but honestly, it makes it much more difficult for them to step in when you have the likes of apple, if the rcb analyst is

right in that they are going to make their apple wallet a bitcoin exchange. jonathan: that's not about antiestablishment. it is not their role, i imagine. this is elon musk. i was going to use the word normal. a pretty normal ceo, do they start doing this? that is a different argument. lisa: totally. it raises the question of who the core user will be. but to raise another issue you were talking about earlier in the break, we wouldn't even be having this conversation if there weren't such a huge manipulation in the printing of money, and this idea of a shortage of assets. why not into some store that isn't as cumbersome to hold? tom: what is the chancellor of the exchequer going to do? if we look at london as the center of global commerce, and they have all of these

transnational relationships, how does london respond to this? jonathan: i don't know. i do know that chancellor sunak has got bigger problems which is why this might not the on the radar for a little longer. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. future down seven on the s&p.

♪ >> what we are seeing right now is these levels of dangerous optimism building. >> right now people are just trading on big, round numbers. >> we have a very big cushion that has been building in excess saving. >> a lot of the u.s. stimulus isn't stimulus at all. it is an antidepressant. >> we will have a more normal recovery with or without the stimulus. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone.