>> here we go. francine: stocks push higher, as the fed's robert kaplan weighs in on the inflation debate. the markets are optimistic. trump's impeachment trial. footage of the storming of the capitol are key. good morning, everyone, and welcome to "bloomberg

surveillance." i am francine lacqua here in london. we have a fantastic exclusive coming your way, from the french banking giant bz pe. -- bpce. i am looking forward to that. global stocks, virus trends, also the u.s. stimulus plan, looking at the renminbi, the one that is quite interesting -- interesting in today's trading session, holding at 1.9 percent after crossing the 2% threshold. now let's get to the bloomberg first word news in london with leigh-ann gerrans. hi, leigh-ann. leigh-ann: hi, francine. the impeachment trial against former president trump is constitutional. they voted to proceed, rejecting the argument that trump cannot be tried because he is no longer in office. the arab world is celebrating

the arrival of the first capsule to mars, entering orbit after its seven month, 480 million monitor journey. two more unmanned craft from the u.s. and china will arrive in the coming days. >> the sequence went exactly as planned to the docks. we are quite happy that it was smooth sailing in the orbit around mars. all have been checked overnight by teams. everything seems nominal. we are now assessing the current orbit that we went into to see what we will do going forward until we reach our final destination into the orbit around mars. leigh-ann: and -- facing another challenge, public official's remark cutting the support.

last week, he disparaged women for talking too much. there are calls for him to step aside, with one sponsor pointing out the olympics bans all forms of discrimination. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg @quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: leigh-ann, thank you so much. i don't even know what to say. now we know the truth. "women speak too much." you kind of don't know how people still say that inn 2021. now, one of the biggest factors of 2021 is to bring a quick end to the pandemic, according to robert meade from pimco who says it is easy for market to get a little too optimistic. meanwhile, we asked our guests for their takes on the reflation trade. >> how persistent is it? >> how much and prices do we get as the economy and consumers

have money in the park at -- in their pocket? second, how sustainable is it? >> we get people vaccinated, we make big improvements, and it would not be surprising to see cyclical elements of inflation build. >> the front-end rates will remain -- >> there could be some momentum building behind yields. >> we will get reflation of airfare and hotels. >> already, most of investors believe that, you know, the inflation and rising rates are there, and there's probably more downside risks to rates than huge upsides. francine: joining us is laura cooper from our mliv team. laura, i woke up this morning, read the pimco piece, read your fantastic blog, and i really don't quite understand why it is such breaking news. is the market -- are they

already pricing in a full recovery? because we already heard from central banks that the vaccine is not a cure-all, given all the mutations and variantss. laura: certainly when we look at what markets are pricing in, they are kind of forward to those upbeat process, regardless of what central bankers do, so the small-cap, russell 2000 in the u.s., which is the favored reflation trade there, is 15% year-to-date, the starkest since 1991. so it may be and somewhat, because we have these risks ahead, they could stumble on vaccine rollouts, we could still see, you know, a challenging labor market recovery. millions of americans are still out of work. i think markets will be pointing more to what policymakers are saying and whether the reflation

trade can continue the momentum that it has been. francine: i guess, laura, the biggest question for markets right now, are we going to have worrisome inflation? what does it mean to have the markets, you know, get in position? do you hedge, or do you take a side? laura: certainly right now, when we see rising yields, the rate selloff, that has largely been underpinned by the growth process accompany those rising inflation expectations. that is ultimately still positive for stocks in the environment. i think it is the case where we do see kind of rising yields extended even further, and the earnings premium over treasury rates right now, that could begin to spill over in terms of risk sentiment, but i think it is very difficult for an investor to position right now, because, you know, this inflation debate is still

alive. clearly they are capturing that, but i would not go to inflation hedges right now, because we do not yet know whether these inflation expectations will see through actual inflation. we will not know that for several months. francine: laura, what do you do with the dollar right now? laura: [laughs] well, the dollar has been interesting over the past few weeks. it has largely been reflective of a couple of stories. one, u.s. growth exceptionalism, given the fact that vaccine rollouts are stumbling in europe. we also have, you know, speculators are positioned on the wrong side of that, so we have seen some positioning squeezes. but certainly with fiscal stimulus to come through, this widening deficit, and ultimately, you know, those recoveries eventually abroad, i do think that medium-term fundamentals dewpoint dollar weakness, but if it is near term, markets are focusing on the cpi, and i think that is why we have seen this in the session

today. francine: laura, thank you so much, laura cooper from our markets life team, with some great -- live team, with some great insights. coming up, taking control. we are dealing with the french banking sector, as the bpce groupe offers to buy back shares our exclusive interview with the bpce chief executive is up shortly. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg

surveillance." i am francine lacqua here in london. let's bring you the latest on the french banking center. bpce has agreed to buy listing investment shareholders. they are offering four years of shares it is not already own. of course, bpce is the second-largest banking group in france. joining us now is the chief executive of groupe bpce, laurent mignon. thank you so much for joining us. why are you taking natixis private now? laurent: well, good morning. we are taking it now, because we are launching an important project of simplification ahead of our strategy plan that we will announce in june, and we think that this transaction, by buying back the minority shareholders, will allow us to streamline the way the group is

organized, better organize our insurance business and payments business, and structure the global businesses we have in the asset management banking into a new division for global financial services that will be fully owned by bpce. that is the reason why we do that. francine: and what kind of timeline are you looking at? when you look at, you know, when the squeeze out will actually be completed, when do you think, how long will this take to do? laurent: well, we launched the business today. i mean, we launched the amf today. then it will take some time for the company to make a formal position on it, and they have to

give is green light. and as we are regulated, we have to wait for some authorization and some come -- in some countries, so it may take up until june, even september, depending on how long the regulatory authorities answer to this conduction. so it may take between three and four months to realize. francine: there were a number of missteps, course, at natixis over the number of years. do you think this puts those missteps behind it? laurent: well, i think the missteps, you know, have been dealt with. we had a change of management at natixis a few months ago. a significant action has been taken. the performance of natixis during the first quarter was very satisfactory, and very good

levels, so it is not a transactions with the misstep behind. we do this transaction because we want to simplify, and we think being a little company today is not the best thing to find your growth. we have 16% growth. we have, as a group, the ability to generate capital, so we don't view that being distant is the right way to fund the growth. so it is not a question of putting back a mistake. they have been dealt with by management. the reality is, do we need to be listed? do we need to have a listed company to fund the growth of our business? and i want to say no. as a group with significant capital, more than 70 billion of growth in one capital, 16% in one ratio, significant ability,

so the ability to generate capital every year, we have the means of funding our growth of all of our businesses by ourselves. francine: do you also expect actually to take part in wider consolidation efforts in the banking sector? laurent: well, you know, we are looking to whatever can happen, but i'm not -- i think that consolidation today is more on a local basis than a global basis. that there is potentially, you know, if you do concentration, you need to create synergy or to find the ability to make sure that they consolidated group is more efficient than each of the banks itself. today come on a european basis, to find a convection that makes sense is not obvious. so we are looking to expand our businesses, as a management business is one. we can expand our services business.

so we are looking at opportunities within our business to go for big convection and the choice for right spending, and there are the conditions today to make a profitable transaction. francine: do you think that france's has consolidated enough, or eventually will france need more banking consolidation? laurent: well, i think france is a pretty consolidated market in terms of banking. you have four big banks that are dominating the market. so i do not view the consolidation a threat. francine: when you look at the shares, was the price fair? was the deception -- was there discussion about changing it? laurent: well, you know, the price reflects the banking sector movement, which has been volatile around the last few years. but i think the prices offering

a significant premium, compared to before, and i think the shares, 16% compared to last friday's closing price, which already included some element of participation in the potential direction, and the share price has increased by 30% in the beginning of the year. but if you look to the price, it is also -- 90% of the tangible good value. it is representing four euro per share. very little number of banks in europe are valued at their tangible good value. most of them are below. it is .53% of the tangible good value. so it is an 80% premium compared to the average price of a european bank, so yes, it is a fair price, a very fair price, and we are doing it at a time when the covid crisis impact on

the market is behind us. so i think it is important. we did not want to do a deal at a non-fair price. it is a fair price. it is a significant premium. it offers price to minority shareholders at the right time. francine: i think we have addressed this already, but i want to make sure we understand, when you look at natixis investment management, does it stay private, or could it eventually raise capital? laurent: well, it will stay -- it will become private -- i mean, it is private within natixis today. it will become a subsidiary of groupe bpce, so as a private company. now, further in time, it is needed for strategic initiatives that make sense. we need to use the capital of that company for partnership and so on. why not? it is now on the table.

that is not what is there today, but this is not something we would rule out for the future. francine: and how do you see the risk profile of, you know, natixis cib within your retail business? laurent: well, i think, you know, natixis cib is really addressing that part of the business for us, and they do that with strong expertise, strong ability to be concerned about clients and bring a value solution, and that is what we want to have, so obviously more geared to corporate banking, to being, you know, less too market-geared business, so it is appropriate. the strategy being followed by

natixis cib today is good for the group. francine: thank you so much for joining us today, laurent mignon, chief investment officer of groupe bpce, with some insight into the transaction that we have been talking about all morning. coming up, we talked to the head of another company our manus cranny brings us that interview, and this is bloomberg.

francine: economics, finance, politics, this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am francine lacqua here in london. let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash, here's leigh-ann gerrans. hi, leigh-ann. leigh-ann: a robust season for advertising, it also things last year's pandemic weaker growth will continue. twitter says ideas are still a long way off. ride-hailing company lyft is inching closer to breaking even as a result of tax cuts. the company is squeezing more revenue out of each customer and says it will turn a quarterly profit this year. ridership is still down due to the pandemic, and the company is

not giving a forecast for the quarter, due to uncertainty over the speed of the vaccine rollout. now, societe generale has been behind rivals, losing stock in bond trading in a bullish quarter. soc gen's equities trading fell 7%. >> we have not posted growth for some time now. you have to look at the real, economic profit. we have a decline in the economic profit, but the economic profit is positive at 1.4 billion. leigh-ann: and that is your bloomberg business flash. francine? francine: leigh-ann, thank you so much. now let's take a look at some of the things for later today. easy president christine lagarde speaks in a webinar at 1:00 p.m.

u.k. time. later on this afternoon, bank of england governor andrew bailey will speak. in the u.s., we get earnings from uber, general motors, and coca-cola. earnings season, of course, is in full swing. we will have plenty more on that come on the markets, and let's get straight to the markets. global stocks pushing higher after an 8-day streak. pretty positive corporate news. what i am also looking at is actually platinum. i do not look at platinum very often, but there is a little bit of a move, with platinum rising to a six-year high expectations . coming up, the hurdle in president trump's impeachment trial. ♪ peachment trial. ♪

francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london.

now let's get to the bloomberg first word news with leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: the european union policy chief is vowing to drop more sanctions against russia. he says his recent trip shows hostility toward the e.u. and that the block has to act more firmly with moscow. he described russia's handling of the alexey navalny case as merciless. according to early data from the u.k.'s vaccine program, one dose of the pfizer be on tech -- pfizer-biontech jab gives two doses that rise to 80%. u.k. has given more than 13 million doses of either the pfizer or oxford-astra jab, with 90% over 80%. and the audience for the super bowl fell to the lowest in over a decade. a broadcast of cbs was watched by just over 96 million people.

the 15% drop from last year is a setback for the national football league, which played many of its games and empty stadiums this season. the figure is seen as a proxy for the popularity of live sports. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: the senate has affirmed the constitutional basis for president trump's impeachment trial, clearing the argument on whether -- prosecutor say trump must be convicted of the most grievous constitutional crime, even though he is gone from the white house. >> they want to call the trial over before any evidence is even introduced. their argument is that if you

commit an impeachable offense and your last few weeks of office, you do it with constitutional impunity. you get away with it. francine: joining us for the latest is stephanie baker, our senior writer, who has been following this from the very beginning. i don't know whether anything changed in your mind of what we will see. is it a timeline, that it will be shorter, quicker, or will we see more republicans vote in favor of conviction? stephanie: we had one additional republican vote to proceed with the trial. if you remember last month, there was a vote in the senate over whether or not to dismiss the trial, and five republicans voted with the democrats. this time you had six, but it still falls short of the 17 needed to convict, and it looks like republicans will be able to vote against conviction without weighing in on the merits of the case.

saying it is unconstitutional to impeach a former president. i don't think there will be much change today. we will have more of the democrats' argument, more video. maybe something new will come out, but you are right, this is going to be a very quick trial as democrats don't want it to interfere with biden's legislative agenda. francine: at the end of the trial, what will we be wiser on? who is controlling the republican party? we also heard from sources that mitch mcconnell is saying it is a matter of conscience. stephanie: yeah, the real question is how many republicans broke ranks and vote to convict, and what happens to them. they know that if they do so, they could be putting their political futures in jeopardy, given the backlash from trump, for any of them up for

reelection, he could back a challenger in the primaries as a way of responding for their vote. if they get to six republicans, maybe a few more, it is significant, but it will only highlight the split within the republican party and how trump still retains a grip there, and if he is not can dave did -- if he's not convicted, not barred from office, he will continue to have that hold on the republican party. francine: what will the republican party become? can we start imagining a third party emerging from the split? stephanie: i think that is the ultimate threat that trump is holding over them, that this patriot party, that he could start his own party, and that would only help split the republican vote and help democrats in some cases.

so i think this is the most interesting thing to watch over the next couple of years, what happens to the republican party. mitch mcconnell -- how does he vote on this? many say this could be his last term. does he break ranks and vote his conscience? i think that would be hugely significant. but i do think that the republican party is split between the traditional republicans, the sort of ronald reagan republicans, and the trump republicans, and how that plays out over the next two years will have huge impact on where the country goes. francine: thank you so much, senior writer stephanie baker come on the trump administration, the biden administration, and the impeachment trial. we are just getting news out of hong kong. we try to bring you an update when countries or cities go further into lockdown. moments ago hong kong says it plans to reopen some sports venues and allowed dying-in services.

yes yesterday we found out that maybe germany will take -- and allow dine-in services. manus cranny spoke with the chief executive about the long path to recovery. >> when this pandemic first came into mainstream reality, probably this time last year, the forecast then was a recovery to 2019 passenger volumes. by 2022. and the more pessimistic ones went into early 2023. here we are a year later, and that forecast sadly has not really improved. it is probably -- the moment where we are at is probably 2023. when we get back to 2019

numbers. the important thing to do now is adapt to the reality of all of this. manus: where are you with crew vaccination? tony: the big story today, and i'm absolutely delighted to share it with you and your viewers first, is as follows. -- it is the first airline today to be -- we have adopted one vaccine. the whole of the organization, me included, by very early this year, i elected to get vaccinated, and i want to go on record praising the commitment to vaccination for the whole etihad family. reported -- in our line of business.

manus: how critical is a vaccine to getting confidence in all of the traveling public back on these plans? tony: i have been calling this one out pretty much since march of last year. some form of wellness certification will be part of the way forward. in the same way visas used to be issued as a rite of passage, it is very easy to link the status of somebody's testing or vaccination. francine: that was etihad chief executive tony douglas. is it time for regulars to approve the cryptocurrency exchange traded funds? we will discuss that next, and this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london. let's get to the bloomberg is a flash with leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: ride-hailing company lift is -- lyft is getting closer to the result of deep cost cuts. the company is squeezing more revenue out of each customer and would -- ridership is still down due to the pandemic and the company is not giving a forecast for the quarter due to uncertainty of the speed of the vaccine rollout. cisco is trading lower after the firm reported a big decline in enterprise sales. the firm says the pandemic is not fully behind us. a large portion of cisco revenue comes from purchases of network hardware by government agencies, companies, and phone service providers. that makes it result -- that

makes results in early indicator of business confidence. and former and a full quarterback kellen cap renick is cosponsoring a black tech company -- colin kaepernick is cosponsoring a black tech company, working with a private equity firm he wants to identify firms that have a customer base within enterprise value north of a billion dollars. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine? francine: how should regulators approve a bitcoin exchange traded fund, tying together -- pressure has been growing on the u.s. securities and exchange commission to allow an etf focused on cryptocurrency. joining us to discuss all things etf is our guest. he is chair of the investment association of the etf committee. as always, thank you so much for coming on and making us smarter on exactly what we are looking at. when you look at some of the

bitcoin and cryptocurrency mania, what does it mean for etf's? >> as of yesterday there were no etf's available, there were only etn's and -- there were issues and participants that are encouraging the regulators to -- a good regulatory system is important. educating regulators and seeing that we can get an approval to launch such a product. we do not have an atm on bitcoin, but as usual we look at the entire market, and they are speaking to us about their interest in being exposed to that particular asset class.

francine: how quickly could we see an etf bitcoin? in the last two weeks, the market was crazy because of the retail frenzy, some calling it a retail flash mob. was it -- what does it say about the etf space? keshava: as we mentioned, there are etp's available, and there is dialogue with the participants and also the regulators, a well structured product to the market. it can launch the product in an efficient manner. there are some generations that it is looking at, and the questions about some of the energy needed for these crypto assets. we are -- the whole industry is kind of looking at this with keen interest, and regulators are listening to the conversations.

as you know, in the u.k., the fca has made it possible to distribute the products to the retail markets because of the consensus that they have. it is natural to have a dialogue with the regulators, and authorities, to make sure that we bring a product to the market that behaves in a way expected by everybody. francine: when you look at some of the things we have been looking at really clearly, it is a week after the reddit situation. as the battle between redditors and hedge fund over? keshava: can you repeat the question? there was a bit of a delay. francine: is the battle between redditors and hedge fund over? keshava: when you look through

the whole period, there is obviously -- stocks were impacted with a price rally, but they are behaving literally as expected, and the price of the etf increase with some of the equities changing -- on the commodities side, it is slightly different. but i think the etf as a structure and as a market and an ecosystem behave exactly the way it should. there was no impact at all in that particular -- francine: are there certain etf's that did particularly well during those 2, 3 weeks because of what was happening elsewhere in the markets? keshava: particular etf's had securities in the basket, basically rallying. the price of the etf went up or went down because the particular

basket -- the etf exactly behaved and performed -- atf's had exposure to some of those stocks. there was no impact on creation, liquidity in the secondary market. the price increase, investors basically using those products, but -- but with an overall ecosystem as a product, the etf really did perform on the 10. francine: what happens in etf's from now until the summer? will there be increasing appetite for them in general in europe? keshava: absolutely. we have big commitments from the industry that i speak to come especially as you mentioned, the investment association in the u.k., and the whole industry is really focusing on esg, it also

we as a firm as well are looking at new product ideas become a huge array of product coming into the markets. esg, x ri, but also fixed income. we had a record year last year, so i think we will continue to see more innovative products and providing solutions to investors to get the exposure, absolutely. francine: we have a question from a viewer come and we encourage all of our viewers to i.b. me directly. this person rights in and says if you look at bitcoin etf's, how are they compatible with the esg appetite? keshava: that's a very good question. it is early days still. there are some -- there are articles about the environmental impact of mining some of the bitcoins, the crypto assets in general. there is a lot of looking into

that. there is also the feeling that the current wave of electricity and energy that we use, we don't use much of it, so maybe we are doing 20th century product on 19th-century infrastructure, so maybe we need to upgrade that as well. it is the early days. we have seen compared to two or three years ago in this particular market to where we are, it is evolving very rapidly, and there is discussion taking place on that aspect. so i think it is a very good question, and the whole industry is looking at that as well. francine: to shove a sash tree -- keshava shastry there, with dws capital markets. your stock movers next. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london. plenty of european corporate earnings this morning, so lets jk in on the markets and see how they are doing with dani burger

-- let's check in on the markets and see how they are doing with dani burger. dani: maersk was the biggest loser on the stoxx 600 today. it has seen its biggest drop since march. the fear is their outlook for 2021 disappointed, and that freight rates might be at a high. the ceo said the rates will continue to be fine and elevated those shares falling. abn amro posting his first annual loss in a decade. they have also scrapped their 2020 dividend. part of the reason we are seeing shares fall more than 3%. it is restructuring costs, things like the pandemic are weighing on banking and other lending activities. finally, thyssenkrupp up more than 5%, seeing a better rate of cash burn. this year they think it will be one billion euros. estimated that 1.5 billion.

francine:, de's chief executive is stepping down. he will be succeeded as the chief executive by his deputy. elsewhere in the sector, societe generale has said it will return capital to investors, after a slump and trading revenue. let's get more on all of these stories with our bloomberg opinion columnist. first of all, good morning to you. what will -- >> i think she obviously inherits a very strong asset manager, europe's biggest. it is growing significantly and it has pulled together various businesses, very successfully. what lies ahead really is this asset manager being more

relevant on a global platform. they will be looking at growth in the bigger market, which of course is going to be in asia, not necessarily in europe. with that comes the challenge to potentially buying up further assets for going organically. she has clearly done really well in establishing the presence and the -- in the etf market that she built from scratch at a monday -- at a monday amundi -- at amundi. francine: and she is one of the females in charge. shares rising this morning. is it a little bit better than expected in terms of earnings? elisa: i think you have to put it in the bigger context. there is some sign that it is drawing a line under it. the difficulties it has had in

2020. your coming off the share price that tips the lowest in decades earlier this year. and it is one of the cheapest banking stocks in europe. i think the concerns still are that it has a business model that has most recently been exposed to volatile trading income, and that it really has to put that under control. but also it has a less diversified income stream then some of its rivals. it is not exposed to asset management to the same degree that other european banks, and therefore those challenges remain. i see that they have cost cuts coming, but not until later. cost cuts increasing a little bit next year, so that will mean there is more pressure to go top nine. francine: thank you so much. ♪

francine: stocks push higher as robert kaplan ways -- he tells bloomberg temporary spikes are to be expected. pimco thinks the market is being overly optimistic. trump's second impeachment trial steams ahead with videos of the mob storming for capitol and the former presidents words key to prosecution. and we have been speaking to executives from maersk, heineken, equinor, and societe generale. good morning, everyone. i am francine lacqua and london, tom keene in new york. germany probably delaying their reopening because cases are not quite where the german chancellor want them to be, but if you look at hong kong, they are opening sports venues. it goes back to the inflation debate. do we have stimulus strong enough to actually put the economy on the skyrocket, or do we worry about cumbersome inflation? tom: equities h