francine: stocks push higher as robert kaplan ways -- he tells bloomberg temporary spikes are to be expected. pimco thinks the market is being overly optimistic. trump's second impeachment trial steams ahead with videos of the mob storming for capitol and the former presidents words key to prosecution. and we have been speaking to executives from maersk, heineken, equinor, and societe generale. good morning, everyone. i am francine lacqua and london, tom keene in new york. germany probably delaying their reopening because cases are not quite where the german chancellor want them to be, but if you look at hong kong, they are opening sports venues. it goes back to the inflation debate. do we have stimulus strong enough to actually put the economy on the skyrocket, or do we worry about cumbersome inflation? tom: equities higher today,

futures up 13 says it all. i do take your point, as every nation and indeed every city for itself come on the pandemic. i would suggest in america, the news is generally very good. francine: i am looking at platinum today. my data check, tom, something i think i have not done -- tom: it is close to valentine's day. i can understand why you are looking at platinum. ritika: the senate has clear the way for arguments to begin on whether donald trump incited a mob to attack the u.s. capitol. lawmakers voted 56-54 that trump's impeachment trial is constitutional. trump's lawyers argued that it was politically motivated and not a remedy for any wrongdoing. senate republican leader mitch mcconnell is saying that it is up to the conscience. he suggests he has not decided

how he will vote. he said he did not consider himself an impartial juror. california has now passed new york as the state with the largest number of coronavirus deaths. 45,000 people have died. the european foreign policy chief is vowing to draw up more sanctions against russia. he defended his trip to moscow last week after the country jailed opposition leader alexei navalny. he has demanded his release. but it is unclear whether that will trigger a new tool -- will prompt the e.u. to trigger a new tool over human rights violations. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. tom: thank you so much, equities, bonds, currencies, commodities.

equities of note, s&p futures up 14, lifting through the early morning come up 94. the vix again, again, again, not giving much information. it ought to be 19, it is not, signaling the volatility that is out there, 21.77. in the yield space, i will call it a churn, and i would note the real yield, really again doesn't give us much information other than expectations higher. brent crude, $61 solid a barrel. francine, sterling on fire. francine: sterling goes back to what we were talking about, which is the vaccination process. it is much better, much quicker than other nations because they have access to doses, and we also had encouraging trial data. we have corporate news in europe, improving virus trends also helping with u.s. stimulus. i have to say, outside of equities, moves more muted. oil price ticking higher, but

nothing to put the world on fire. i'm also looking at platinum because supplies are tight. 1219, tom. francine: jeff -- tom: jeff currie of goldman sachs nailing that call. yesterday there was a breakout of drama in washington, the impeachment process in the senate began. it is confusion is -- it is confusing, from house to senate, with house and senate members front and center in their prosecution of the former president. >> they want to call the trial over before any evidence is even introduced. their argument is that if you commit an impeachable offense, in your last few weeks in office, you do it with constitutional impunity. you get away with it. >> this is nothing less than the political weaponization of the

impeachment process. pure, raw sport. fueled by the misguided idea of party over country, and i can promise you that if these proceedings go forward, everyone will look bad. tom: there is the drama yesterday, much of it predicted, some of it a genuine surprise. out of nowhere, a physician, growing up in illinois, the first republican since reconstruction in the senate, dr. cassidy of louisiana moves over the aisle and has a republican vote to assist mr. raskin and others. marty: you can thank bruce castor for his rambling defensive donald trump. tom: started like me in a meeting. marty: it was more of a front porch nice to know you speech

rather than dealing with constitutional issues before the senate. and cassidy switched his vote. he said the democrats won the day for him. tom: it is a theme, distant from 17 votes. everybody in the zeitgeist says there is no way we are going to get a conviction on this. what is the best outcome for the democrats after they took in one vote yesterday? marty: i guess the best outcome is to get the court of public opinion on their side, but it strikes me that the people who support donald trump out in the country probably are not really watching this. it is compelling example of civics for a lot of the democratic population in the country, but other than that, i guess the democrats are hoping for a change in public opinion that makes donald trump a non-candidate for or years from now -- watch or years from now.

francine: what can you tell us about mitch mcconnell? of course he has played a crucial role. will here be able to that will he be able to sway more republicans? he is saying this is a matter of conscience. marty: it is very interesting, francine. according to people familiar with his thinking, it means he does not want to go on the record, he's keeping an open mind. even though he voted against proceeding with this trial, he has signaled off the record again that he is going to vote his conscience, and basically telling all the other republican members they can do that, too. even with that, the fact that we only got one republican crossing the aisle and voting to proceed doesn't speak well for whether or not we are going to get a conviction come as tom points out. francine: how short will it be? it could have dragged on, what i think what we're hearing is that it could be over by saturday or

sunday. marty: it could. democrats and republicans are all interested in having a trial. the only wildcard here is if new evidence is put forward that actually forces or compels witnesses. witnesses will extend this quite a bit. neither side wants to do that, but these times have been unprecedented. could something happen? could someone step forward with new evidence that forces them to call witnesses? it is still possible. tom: what is the timeline after this is over? i guess we get the state of the union, the president will go to the legislature and do this typical speech, the vision thing and all that. but what do you perceive is next for washington? marty: the next thing is the biden stimulus package. he actually seems to have

recognized that speed is critically important here, and he is going to go full speed ahead on the stimulus package, using reconciliation. it is going to take a few weeks, but that is where the focus will be come the end of this impeachment. tom: what is your summation of the vaccine? i am looking at the different media, including the virus tracker, and i see nothing but good news. marty: there really has been tremendous good news on the vaccination process. you had the former fda commissioner saying the issue in a month's time may not be supplied but demand, getting people to agree, take the vaccine, which is a stark contrast to where we were two months ago. tom: i get my second shot friday. are you going to hold my hand? marty: absolutely, if you hold mine as i get it tomorrow. francine: i'm so excited for you

both. it is like surveillance vaccinations. getting it together. tom: we are doing our fair share here. francine: we are leading. tom: i'm impressed. -- i we are leading. francine: i am impressed. i am genuinely excited and happy, tom. tom: my answer is get the vaccine, folks. there is a genuine and natural fear, it takes time to get over it. geraldine sundstrom will join us with investment management company pimco, their portfolio manager. always interesting on the fixed income dynamics. futures up 14, dow futures up 93. stay with us, get vaccinated. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance," tom and francine from london and new york. to talk about the markets, reflation trade, and these two opposing forces, the markets thinking extra steamers will mean the economy will be much stronger but also worrying about inflation, we are delighted to be joined by pimco -- talking about some of the pimco point of view, what vaccinations mean for the world recovery. are we too optimistic that getting herd immunity means we are rid of covid-19? >> i am no virologist, and i cannot say, but i think we are hoping certainly that we get critical mass in the second half of 2020 one, and we are going --

of 2021, and we will see a strong recovery, and from the second quarter. that is very much the hope and this is in the forecast. francine: where do you see the reflation trade going? do you worry that inflation is coming with critical mass to worry central banks, or will they just work through it? geraldine: well, i think we need to differentiate to part of this. we know very well that in the next few months, inflation is going to pick up because of this. i think central banks are doing a good job so far of explaining is it temporary, and we are going to look through. the real question for all of us is, where is the cpi rate going to land come late 2021, the summer 2021, -- december 2021. our forecast is that we will see

reflation go into the year-end, and it is -- therefore, market should not worry too much about that. that said, there are some pressures, especially at the wholesale cpi level, and for those who worry about inflation, for those who worry we are getting this forecast wrong, there is an easy way to deal with this, to buy inflation protected treasuries. a lot of the juice might have gone because inflation rates are higher. but certainly central bank also hits the target, there is more to come in the pricing of those, and they can be a neat hedge. it is about being a bit humble about this, not worrying too much, and putting some inflation protection in place. tom: i'm going to steal that phrasing, "to be a bit humble" really sizes it up from a. give us the nuance of higher

inflation, price down, yield up. how do our viewers defend themselves from the idea of price down, given inflation? geraldine: well, i think there is a time when, you know, inflation goes up, and it is a very healthy phenomenon for risky assets in general. inflation has been too low. and in some way we should rejoice, right? and i think central banks will rejoice as well. it is good for equities, it is good for the economy and all the rest of it. so what would be worrisome is if it gets out of control, and certainly we are a long way from that, a long way from having to worry about this. tom: i get the timeline a long way to worry about it, but along the path to sunday -- to someday where we worry about it, do you see price erosion with the set of yield higher, or can you do this without price erosion?

geraldine: well, you know, yield has been climbing a little bit higher, and certainly there is room for yield going a little bit higher still. that would be a healthy development. at the same time, i would point out that yield going a little bit higher, they become more attractive from a carry perspective, but they become again an important hedge. there will be demand for fixed income as the yields go back up. so it is not all bad news. francine: where does the search for yield actually push investors to, geraldine? yesterday we talked a lot about junk bonds, high-yield. is there something else that you can get a list from this market move? geraldine: well, i think you have been talking about it. people are looking for various ways to sort of enjoy this recovery, and we are seeing

this, you know, in credit, but we are also seeing people going into emerging market bonds with more confidence, with this recovery. and also in commodities and precious metal, which all makes sense to have an allocation to portfolios nowadays. francine: geraldine, is there something that actually -- we talk a lot about frothy evaluations -- frothy valuations in equities. is there something in your world that is just not right, that either he feels it is in double territory or that there will be a correction fairly soon? geraldine: i don't see much bubbles. i think they're part of the market, maybe or relatively fully valued, maybe on the general side of things. but talking about bubbles would probably be an exaggeration, i would say. that said, telling people -- it

has run a long way, and trying to choose more return out of that is going to be complicated going forward. so what we recommend is to be more specific, or granular in which credit you are keeping, which equities you're keeping, and to start to do the asset management's job, really, and there we still find greater opportunities in a number of sectors that have not completely priced a healthy recovery. tom: what is your mix of ig versus high-yield? i understand there is a u.s. dynamic to that, but in europe and the rest of the world come how do you discern between an investment grade purchase of a dead interest -- dead instrument versus high-yield? geraldine: i think it is very much driven by the sector and the word from our credit analysts. it is very sort of granular and detailed. there is no sort of one rule

blanket that covers it all. that said, what we really like as a sector is real estate, post agency and nonagency -- both agency and nonagency origins. it is supported -- both agency and none agency. it becomes a case-by-case, and it is hard to make a general statement. but if you look at certain sectors where it is hit by covid come in gaming or leisure, where we find very attractive value, but if you want to play it safe, i would say the real estate sector is the one to look at. francine: geraldine, thank you so much. geraldine sundstrom of pimco stays with us. coming up, conversations with david rubenstein, at 9:00 p.m. tonight, new york. 7:00 p.m. thursday in london, and this is bloomberg. ♪

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ritika: this is bloomberg surveillance. there is the bloomberg business flash. twitter recorded fourth-quarter revenue that beat estimates, but with fewer new users than projected, and twitter warned that audience gained in 20 when he one was slowed compared to last year, which was spurred by the pandemic. counting on other companies

following tesla's lead when it comes to bitcoin. tesla invested 1.5 billion dollars in digital the currency. j.p.morgan says other corporate treasurers will be reluctant to do the same. and the controversial former pro football quarterback colin kaepernick has joined the friends a. he is cosponsoring a blank check company that will look for a business in the consumer sector. he has not played in the nfl since 2016, and that is the year he launched player protests during the national anthem to bring attention to racism and police brutality. that is the latest bloomberg business flash. francine? francine: thank you so much. the focus is on inflation. we continue looking at the reflation trade, and we had -- filtering through optimism on the markets. i'm also looking at platinum because there is a supply

squeeze, and you can see the platinum -- if you look outside the equity space, moves a bit muted, or prices ticking higher. tom: you on, 6.44 on -- she has hit an advertising homerun. she is mary barra of general motors, and i can only say the response to who super bowl ad on norway with will ferrell has been absolutely phenomenal. if she can run a company like she can run a super bowl ad, she has got it made. 8:30 this morning, mary barra of gm. finland -- you are in sweden. ♪

>> the question for me will be how persistent is it. >> how much of a pop and prices

do we get out of the economy open and consumers having money in their pocket? second, how sustainable is it? >> able to get people broadly vaccinated. we will make big improvements on unemployment. it would not be surprising to see the cyclical elements of inflation build. >> policy will remain prominent despite the reflationary pressures building. >> there could be some momentum building behind. >> we will get the reflation of airfares and hotel rates. >> most of investors believe the inflation and rising rates are but out there. that is probably more downside risk than huge upside. tom: fixed income, front and center. she knows pimco does a lot in

the equity space. how does this go over to the equity markets. bonds, bonds, bonds, yields, yields, yields. forget about it. equities to the moon. how does this end? >> for now, i think we have good years ahead of us with recovery that is both cyclic or -- cyclical and secular in nature. i think it will be slightly different. we start to see wholesale and ppi shortages, price pressures, and therefore, there are interesting opportunities where good pricing power supply -- power, supply, there's a semiconductor -- in the semiconductor industry and shipping industry as well. it's an exciting time. what makes me sometimes

surprised is we are seeing already this type of pricing power and shortages when the cycle has barely started. usually these are patterns you would see late in the cycle. for now, i think this is particularly interesting as a time for equities when you have margins that can increase in some cases, and central bank is still pretty zen, waiting for all of this to trickle down. tom: one of the great insights this week was from howard with decades of experience. his distinction was we do not understand the technological revolution. obviously in technology stocks but tangential to other sectors as well. how do you apply the new technology over to nontechnology sectors? geraldine: i think there are some interestingly

[indiscernible] sectors which is becoming part of the disruption. you have forestry for example, an old cyclical business and went into decarbonization, sustainable packaging, biofuel, and you have to rediscover will certain -- rediscover certain sectors beyond the digital world which is growing strongly. francine: what are those sectors, and is there a link in how we would will work from -- how we will work from home post pandemic or is this part of the market that is unloved? geraldine: i think it is out of the radar. the recovery is going to be green and digital. in some ways, we are reinventing the way we do energy, transport, cars, and all of these things.

it's about being very careful about the secular trend, this pivot, and rediscovering the industries that are going to come back to the floor. energy -- back to the fore. energy, transport, decarbonization, all of these things we think will have a nice cyclical and secular uplift, which is different from previous cycles. so history only rhymes, not repeating. francine: what are you buying right now? is there something that looks more attractive than others? you mentioned may be certain sectors. what do you do country by country? geraldine: country by country, what we are noticing is the green and digital recovery, where are the enablers, who are the companies that are going to be in renewable energy, the batteries, the semiconductors? when you look for that and look

for those enablers, what you find out is they are very much in asia. so all of the supply chains are very much anchored in asia, so countries like japan, china, south korea, and taiwan are looking very promising. valuations there remain relatively cheap, especially in a global context. francine: thank you so much. geraldine of pimco with great thoughts on rebuilding with esg on the first front -- on the forefront. ritika: house impeachment managers are you donald trump must be held accountable, and the senate has agreed. senators voted 56 to 44 that it is constitutional to try the former president on whether he incited a mob to storm the capital. six republicans crossed party lines to vote with democrats. that sets the stage for opening arguments. donald trump has asked palm

beach to let him stay full-time at his mar-a-lago resort. a spokesman for the former employee said he should be able to live there because he is the -- is a member of the club. others argue he should not be able to stay there permanently because of zoning rules. amongst revisions of coronavirus packages, they want to and caps on pharmaceutical makers. they also want to expand health care programs. one does of the pfizer vaccine offers to there's protection against coronavirus according to data seen by the u.k. government. the data shows one pfizer does gives as much as 65% protection. two doses, rises as much -- protection rises to 85%. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

francine: thank you so much, ritika. next, we look at trump's impeachment, the lengths of it and what republicans will do next. that is coming up shortly, and this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. francine lacqua in london and i am tom keene in new york. we are following markets. we are seeing a zeitgeist tangentially. not a big move on oil, but nevertheless, a persistent move higher. there is also an emper -- a

persistent intention on the new president washington. joining us now is thomas gift of ucl, the director of politics. thomas, give us a judgment you have of the past unity and critical past normality that president biden judges is necessary. is he getting by there? thomas: so far so good. there have not been stumbling blocks. the fact impeachment is looming over everything he does i think really delays that process. it makes it more difficult for him to make the inroads he wants to. it is worth noting that driving forth this partisan stimulus package opens himself up to significant criticism from republicans that he is not behaving in the post-partisan manner he promised. i think that is certainly something he needs to be

concerned about in the early days. tom: when does the primary season kick in? we have an election in two years, november of 2022, there is a primary season that summer, but when does the primary begin -- primary ballet begin? thomas: i think it begins right now. for republicans in the senate with this trial, the votes they render on trump will loom extremely large when it comes to coming up for reelection for those members in the house. in washington, the election cycle basically never ends. one class of new senators and congressmen members and the president comes in. the next moment, they need to start fundraising and thinking about the years ahead. we are basically in cycle right now where it is unending. francine: professor, who is in charge of the republican party right now, or what is the republican now? prof. gift: i still think donald

trump is in charge of the republican party unless someone on sees him and takes over the position. he has more control than anyone. the fact so many republican senators, especially in the trial, are reluctant to mutiny against him is indicative of the fact that donald trump still holds tremendous sway. some polling numbers that came out in the last few days that show a modest majority of americans support the conviction of donald trump. but that is not true within the republican party. about 80% or so want to see him acquitted. donald trump will cast a long shadow over the republican party and he continues to do so right now during this trial. francine: do you see a third-party emerging? i know it is considered crazy, but given where we are, could that happen? prof. gift: i just don't think so. in essence, that would self-destruct the conservative movement within the united

states, and democrats would essentially have free reign to enact their agenda. donald trump wants to keep this in the backdrop. he wants to make a case of this if possible, but the way the united states political structure is -- political system is structured, i don't think it is something to happen. tom: you did a joint effort where you try to figure out impeachment. one of the themes of that event ucl did with lse was the idea of a democratic defeat in impeachment. explain that to our audience. how did the democrats not have a political went out of this impeachment process -- win out of this impeachment process? prof. gift: i just don't think it is obvious they will get a win out of this process because the end result seems almost like it is inevitable that donald trump will be acquitted. what is he going to do if he is acquitted?

he will spin this as something that it is not, an exoneration, which will embolden his supporters. i think that will allow him to loom even larger over the republican party. it will allow him to position himself potentially as the 2020 24 candidates or at least be a king-maker within the party -- 2024 candidate or at least be a kingmaker within the party. donald trump will view this as a slap on the wrist. he will ultimately come out in the clear. if that is the case, democrats have to ask themselves, what is the endgame? impeachment is a political process inherently. if you're not going to win this, i think there are legitimate questions as to why you are going through with it. tom: where do moderate republicans go? prof. gift: that's a really big question. i think there will be this internal battle between moderates and the trumpian republicans in the next few months and years.

i think moderate republicans need to continue to make the case that the trumpian wing of the republican party is too extreme and does not represent the values of most americans, but that is difficult with such a high percentage supporting the president. i think what we will basically get is an equilibrium where there is a trumpian wing in the republican party. they will find common ground on issues like deregulation, conservative judicial appointments, tax cuts, and those sorts of things. in terms of the tone and substance, and style, with two wings could not be further apart. francine: professor, is there something that the biden administration could do in terms of policy to get voters away from that trump base? prof. gift: that's another great question. they need to look at policy areas where there is at least a conceivably -- some bipartisan

consensus. the top of the agenda has to be infrastructure. this is something donald trump tried to get through in 2017 and was unsuccessful in doing so. supposedly, there is some degree of bipartisan consensus, both on the democratic side and republican side, that this could be a bridge to bring the parties together. to do that is difficult, because a lot of this will get wrapped up in debates over climate change, wrapped up in the debates over the deficit and debt, especially amid covid-19. first order of business for joe biden is get the virus under control, get the stimulus package through, and then he can start thinking about other items that might have bipartisan consensus. ultimately, it is very unlikely. tom: thank you for the brief. here on a week of impeachment. we will have full coverage through the day, particularly

david westin on balance of power. a view on business and u.s. chamber of commerce chief executive officer suzanne clark in the 12:00 hour. i'll get it out, 3, 2, 1, in the 12:00 hour. i did it. francine: good job. tom: futures are up. thank you. ♪

ritika: this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am ritika gupta. cisco reported a big decline in sales. the ceo warned the coronavirus is still hurting growth. cisco gets a large portion of its revenue from selling network hardware. they try to set that more to software and subscriptions. chesapeake energy wants to a night the shell boom. it is now emerging as a shell of itself. a representative tells bloomberg it was marked by growth and for the wrong reasons.

the cash burning is over. and there inching their way toward breaking and the right health service reported fourth-quarter losses less than expected. lyft had been squeezing more money out of each customer, a cost of cost cuts. tom: it's percolating out there. nevertheless, part of global finance, and that is a challenge to the reality of chinese fiscal dynamics. joining us as the chief asia correspondent. there are eight ways to go here, but what it comes down to is a transparency of the chinese finance system and many shadows out there of china finance. how murky are the shadows? >> on the show banking side of scenes there have been a lot of question marks over trump policy over the years. there has been improvement there, but there is fresh debate

on what is happening with [indiscernible] aggregate financing was up in one month alone. medium and long-term loans its records, and people are saying that is because manufacture is going. we know the consumer story, and the bigger picture remains that [indiscernible] is slowing. the authorities are getting loans into the economy because there is a demand for its, but they want to keep an eye on the overall meter of lending and they will not tighten or loosen too much on the other side. tom: we have heard this from some other countries as well but the unique feature is structure of the government. from your observation, are they willing to take a loss? are they willing to basically

inflict creative destruction? >> at the moment, there is no doubt the authorities want to -- the economy to get it back on his feet from the pandemic. right now, there are enjoying some v shape recovery. the thinking is that the government is in a stronger position now. companies will default and away we have not seen before. a central bank is talking about keeping an eye on the stimulus we put in the economy. at the same time, this is not exactly sounding dovish. the economy is going to stabilize itself, it is back to her close to its pre-pandemic levels on all metrics, and from here, they are in a stronger position where they can taper or rain and support, and that is expected what is to happen. francine: how unbalanced is the

recovery in china right now? i know we have had died virgins -- divergence in activity and inflation. how do authorities rebalance that? >> has the big question, francine. manufacturing is going gangbusters, global demand for work from home technology, all of that's getting made in china and shipped out. on the consumer side of things, even though the virus has been somewhat under control in china for many months, the consumer is still not back to where they were before the virus. this could be for the rest of the world as well depending on how long it takes to heal, and spending habits to get back to where they were. we will especially see over the chinese new year period, typically the biggest holiday of the year in china, and you will

see the government trying to keep ratings on movements in order to keep the virus from spreading. china's economy is on strong footing and enjoying a strong rebound. there is an imbalance. francine: could it be exporting inflation to the rest of the world? >> that's a good question. we had inflation on the consumer side of things as quite negative. on the producer side of things, it is back into positive territory. that'll lead to better demand and help companies repay their debt. the question becomes whether or not the price they will pay for commodities and input items will get shipped on and passed on to the rest of the world. we already know china's exporters are in a container shortage, increasing the cost of c freighters through the roof. so we need to watch whether this is a combination of [indiscernible] and this would translate into

china starting to ship inflation to the rest of the world. thank you very much. on short notice from hong kong. on the shadows of the chinese finance system and raging debate on which way china goes, linking monetary policy not so much into fiscal policy but into their financial policy of their banking system. another expert on this, william lee, will join us, just wonderful on the pacific rim. futures up 13, dow futures of 89. i want to point out brent crude with gold, 1842 -- $18.42 an ounce. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: this morning, consider jp morgan up 36% since november 6. small caps, the russell 2000, up 40% since november 6. it continues this morning. brent crude, $61 per barrel. there is new sterling strength. hospitalization data in america is better. vaccination, it is working. and there is a doctor in the senate, dr. cassidy of louisiana, votes for democrats. the second impeachment trial of president trump oh continue. good morning. i'm tom keene in new york and francine lacqua in london. does anyone in london care about any impeachment trial? francine: a lot of people have actually been watching it. i think it is the lockdown effect, people spend more time with her television set. it is quite exciting. i would not say the pageantry but there were missteps yesterday that got people entertained. and you just wonder