what are we actually liz ann: we have seen a slight that attention is coming, differentiate between gambling and speculating on stocks or waning of domestic equity flows areas of the market with no underlying fundamentals and longer-term investment. tom: liz ann, i will bore you but interestingly you are seeing >> the outlook for 2021 is still a pickup inflows to market outside of the united states, a successful story. with the question i always asking because i think you are which we think is a good sign >> people are trading round better than anyone in the numbers. >> there is not as much pricing industry with this, what you that the notion of diversification is no longer as hard of a cell as it was in the power. recent past. >> there is an overwhelming think we are actually doing with amount of monetary stimulus in our money? at the sector level, flows have charles schwab has a knowledge of flows second two none. summit to pick up on the more the u.s. system. >> a lot of u.s. stimulus is not cyclical parts of the economy like energy, materials, stimulus at all -- it is an industrials, where you are saying outflows out of areas antidepressant. >> until we are out of the like consumer discretionary and tech. i think the flows are switching woods, i think we have to be aggressive. jon: this is "bloomberg toward the shifting toward this surveillance live on bloomberg recovery focused with a more cyclical, commodity-oriented bias. tv and radio. lisa: do you think, liz ann, along tom keene and lisa there is complacency, and we abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. chairman powell center stage will continue to see inflation later today. expectations climb as we get tom: dave emaar -- driving more stimulus packages path? is there any sense to you that the consensus has gone too far? liz ann: common inflation markets higher. it is a webinar for the economic

club of new york -- i will not have to have the chicken at the perspective, we think we are going to see it, but it is going to be more a function of price hotel. shocks. we don't think we are sowing the it will be on a webinar, but seeds of anything resembling a just as important, and he has to late-19 70's, early-19 80's address inflation worries. jon: there is always a complaint inflation environment, but one where you have imbalances about rubber chicken. ppi overnight starting to between demand and supply up it we think you will see that. plus, the comps get easy on the decline higher. i wonder how people view the factory gate drama. inflation front heading into what was the pandemic-shutdown period of last year that the tom: it pushes us from the question is at what point does deflation spiral lisa is worried it spook investors or the fed? i think they will have a decent about. i have to go to the inflation amount of patience. report and partition out service sector dynamics that come in lower inflation. goods producing the networks, once whereat herd immunity, everyone getting the x-men it, higher inflation. they are on the same point and the pent-up demand will be what they do in the next six unleashed in a massive wave. months determines what chairman i think the nature of tent of powell does. jon: 8:30 a.m. eastern. demand on the service side of the economy is different than the goods side and we have met lisa: you stole my thunder -- you talk about the cpi data and the demand on the good sign -- the jerome powell pressure -- auto, housing, housing-related,

presser we will get later today. but on the services side, if you use to get a haircut once a the consumer price index data very important to see the price month and you haven't gotten of gasoline. people are looking at a temporary boost to inflation one, you get a haircut, not seven of them. from proposed stimulus and what you don't go out to breakfast, we got over december. lunch, dinner, to make up for not anything longer-lasting. the loss restaurant time. the reason i find this so interesting, yields creeping up you don't take six vacations in a row. we have to look at what the toward their post-pandemic high. interesting to see where the pent-up demand means given that it is more on the services side. band is coming from with inflation creeping higher. lisa: is there some inconsistency on the reflation then the fed chair's power trade that you think is based in reality and treasury yields best speaking at the economic club of at 1.2% --at 1.2%? new york -- a webinar to spare tom keene from rubber chicken. liz ann: i think yields where we are all crying for him. my key question would be does he they are reflects on improving think that high asset prices, growth environment less so than arguably publishes asset prices, a prospect for a significant increase in inflation. ultimately for medically market perspective, it is not nominal helps the fed get closer to its goal of higher inflation and yields that matter, but, of long-term employment? course, real yields, and that

story, at least being put out there by the bulls to support people start to talk about asset bubbles that at what point it becomes counterproductive. still quite high valuations at this stage has a point. jon: let's clear up the rubber chicken issue. jon: liz ann sonders, thank you tom sits behind the speaker like the oracle, and his meal is not rubber chicken. i get rubber chicken. for joining us. you can have a situation where lisa: he gets caviar. financial conditions statements and that will matter. tom: the biggest problem here, tom: it echoes to the real yield. i think morgan stanley today and the tradition of the new york -- economic club of new york, it is an polite up on the great dissection of the nominal yield less inflation expectation toward the residual, which is podium, as they call it, the jon ferro's program, the real stage, you can not eat until the speech is over, so you are down yield. the real yield has not budged, there chowing down, leaning and that is what karen says over, taking lisa abramowicz's matters. jon: that will push the fed to desert, and i have up there starving, unable to eat. jon: but you get a drink. do more of the long game, qe, equity futures up 12 pointed a asset purchases. it is a chorus on rates.

bit of a lift. tom: it is a big move. everyone is singing of the same sheet. jon: u.s. dollar, 12123. when it comes to the asset purchase program, you can since the division starting to bubble away. lisa: you raise an interesting question -- how far can yields it is a huge move over the last three months. rise before they provide an attractive place for people's absolutely massive. tom: no question about it. money? at what point do they become a as i mentioned in the 6:00 a.m. better value proposition and the idea of jp morgan up 32% that creates tighter financial conditions. from november 6, the russell to the extent they don't do that 2000 up 40%est. -- there is a margin or they still don't offer attractive yields and financial conditions could remain loose, but until then you do wonder at what point you can have this perfect goldilocks and area. jon: the perfect parallel does liz and sanders joins us. walk me through how important it not exist, but if we reflect on 2013, we had huge moves in the is to stick with it, stick with what is working at the moment? summer of 2013 off the back of a >> what is working changes on a comment from former chairman ben bernanke -- equities to the moon. week to week basis. there was so much attention on 30% year. the most heavily shorted stocks tom: we will get those moves. in the gamestop saga, reading maybe we are a little bit wiser headlines this was some along the 2007 row. brand-new phenomena, the rise of

there is a natural disaster and a pandemic, but maybe we are retail traders and the dominance getting wiser. they are having goes back to what i would look at is the last summer when you first correlations out there, like started to see the increase in flat dollar-weak dollar. john, dxi is poundstone appeared speculative activity and single stocks. it was concentrated in those leadership stocks at the time it you are the richest guy in the world because you are paid in pound sterling. lisa: in 2013 -- that is a the vaccine news into the energy stocks and the financials. probably for a variety of concern. reasons, not the least of which just to hammer this is, the infrastructure of markets, with such crowded trains and social media driving a flash mob, it went into these arcane difficult position based on how parts of the market. much liquidity has come into the markets. tom: seven/11 28 wall st time. appropriate choice of gloom. jon: some people tune in for it. it is like a morning coffee with lisa, the ultimate downer. monday through friday -- i heard

a rumor it might sound -- start earlier soon. from -- to our audience worldwide, good morning to you all. from new york, to boston, d.c., and san francisco, this is bloomberg. ♪ -- house democrats used dramatic video of the storming of the capital to begin donald trump's second impeachment trial but the prosecution is far from warning enough votes. impeachment managers will make their opening arguments, trying to convince the senate to convict the president of encouraging a mob to disrupt the u.s. congress could they went 17 republicans to cross party lines. president biden's push to open u.s. borders running into his pledge to support teachers. they are demanding vaccinations

and other safety measures before returning to the classroom. the cdc is set to release new guidance. the white house is caught between cdc side; the teachers union. twitter added fewer new users than projected and warned that audience games to 2021 will slow down compared to last year's surge. global news 24 hours a day and on bloomberg quicktake. i am ripped a group to. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> i think each side did a decent job. i don't think either side overwhelmed the other. >> i thought the president's team really laid out what this is about -- this is about the democrats trying to cancel the guy that 74 million americans voted for. >> president trump's team were

disorganized. they did everything they could but to talk about the question at hand and when they talk about it they glided over, almost as if they were embarrassed about the arguments. jon: some of the reaction from the impeachment trial. from new york city this morning, good morning to you. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. a big morning. cpi coming in about one hour and 12 minutes time. chairman powell speaking at 2:00 p.m. eastern. equities heading back to all-time highs. in the bond market, yields with a mild, mild lift, up not even a basis point, 1.1 637. euro-dollar goes nowhere -- one .2 119. lisa: inflation data -- 1.2119. tom: now to washington, kevin

cirilli joins us. i want to go to senator brown in casper, indiana, way down south, where the indiana basketball hall of fame is, which is the only thing that matters. he is from my different place than a lot of the democratic power. jordan we know from ohio. then you have the position from the louisiana upset at the lawyers yesterday. how does president trump react and coalesce those three different republican voices forward? kevin: i think it is less about what former president trump thinks in terms of where the party is and more about what leader o'connell thinks. i think to your point here, that was a brilliant lead in with the thought string we shared because it captures the divide of where republicans are and where republican constituents are throughout the country. i was shocked by a cbs poll over the last couple of days in which

you have 56% -- 56% of americans want to see a conviction in the united states senate, and i bring this up because republicans are divided. so, because republicans are divided, that is why you are seeing elected officials react in the sense of running the gamut, so to speak, across the spectrum. tom: the wrestling coach from ohio does not have to worry about a primary threat. does the doctor from the louisiana, bill cassidy have to worry about a primary threat, or does brown -- braun from the indiana basketball hall of fame have to worry about a primary threat? kevin: yesterday i was on capitol hill in the senate, and i have to be candid, you could hear a pin drop when the democrats impeachment managers played the video when they juxtaposed the speech along with social media capturing videos of what happened on january 6 inside of the capital. it is very surreal to watch that

in real time, in the scene, on location of where the incident of january 6 took place. back to your question here, the republican party has been able to craft a position where, like senator cassidy, he may not vote to convict president trump, but he did cast a vote that the trial itself was constitutional, and that is a process argument, a process political argument, but it does provide some political cover in states like louisiana where republicans are divided on their thoughts about january 6. jon: kevin, do we know what the former president's reaction was to yesterday's events? kevin: my kylie jenner for jacobs reported he was watching this development unfolds in mar-a-lago. i can tell you based on my own reporting and talking to folks yesterday in congress, that from a staff level to a member-level,

they have largely moved on. this is the process playing out. it is a leftover assignment, for lack of a better word, from 2020 , the final days of president trump's term. even president biden yesterday was meeting with ceos, hosting and economic meeting about the stimulus, and jen psaki, the white house press secretary and breeding -- brady briefing room said he is less focus on that and more on this to miss. lisa: can you paint the import of mitch mcconnell coming out and saying this is a vote of conscious, basically signaling, opening the door to a potential conviction by republicans, even if they voted against the constitutionality of this? can you talk about the importance of that from a symbolic place in terms of president trump's? place in the republican party? kevin: to be candid, it serves as a final four republicans --

funnel for republicans to be able to capture the divide amongst constituents all across the country from railamerica to suburban america, where republicans are about the best path forward for the republican party over the next couple of years, but beyond that, it is pretty striking. i can tell you the expectation on capitol hill is that there remains virtually zero chance that trump will get convicted. tom: what should we look for today? kevin: maybe i am a nerd, but i'm still looking at gamestop and the hearings on gamestop and robinhood, and you have some house hearings and the senate banking. i guess i'm a policy person at heart. jon: kevin, thank you. tom: i didn't expect that. kevin: expect the unexpected. lisa: i thought it was the stimulus. jon: is that the focus of sound on later? tom: the show is on a deflation spry i'll -- spiral.

lisa: he said what is the worst-case scenario -- honestly trying to see around corners, not predicting doom and gloom. jon: is in your base case the worst-case scenario for most people? lisa: i don't speak for most people. i'm convinced in the stalks. i really do think it is important to see those developments as it gets crafted ahead of the february 16 convergence. jon: it is usually we have seen off the back end of october --absolutely massive. the move and energy stocks as well as been phenomenal. tom: and rita was lights out with energy -- she made real clear this is about demand being less of a failure than expected. demand is actually pretty darn good and her range goes up to $80 a barrel. she is not talking $100 or

break, but got some enthusiasm. lisa: a 50% -- jon: a 50% move since october. it brings to mind the energy story. it might give central bankers a base to say this is commodity driven. tom: abramowitz has the two barrels of oil in the living room. lisa: the kids were little upset. tom: the smell. jon: another word in the next three months might be transitory. how many times have we heard that? tom: or slack. i can't pronounce it. lisa: we heard it from robert kaplan saying it would be temporary. jon: look through it. big morning. 8:30 a.m. eastern. an inflation print, not the deflationary spiral lisa might be looking for. tom: could, though. you never know. jon: this afternoon, the main event, chairman powell, 2:00 p.m. eastern time, full coverage, bloomberg tv. up

jon: from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on bloomberg tv and radio.

for our audience word -- worldwide, blink and you missed it -- unreal. futures advance 13 points pick nasdaq futures up one/3 it up 42 point so far. i'm still waiting for the first sign of capitulation on the street. some of those people who sounded bullish in october-november time, who now look bearish to upgrade their forecast. i know it is the middle of february, but given the move we have had, you know it is a matter of time, one of the relative there's makes a move -- city, socgen, b of a. tom: they have to move higher. jon: not to say it is wrong. it is a year-end forecast by definition it is not wrong. it is the middle of february, just wondering if someone makes a move. tom: they will recalibrate. jon: the bond market.

kevin powell a little later --ahead of that, the tendons unchanged. about a basis point. tom: four digits. jon: let's finish on this -- this is an example of how quickly a bond market can move -- you think about the law -- low levels we are at. 10-year gilt yield has basically doubled year to date, exceptionally low levels, but it has basically doubled year to date and now about 40 basis points on the u.k. 10-year. what does it matter? the vaccine rollout in the u.k. has been quite good -- 18.9% of the population has received one dose. at the time when they started to do this and focus on a one-dose vaccine and then shift down for a second dose the u.k. got criticism. our understanding is according to the trials, the testing they have done, u.k. government has found out that on a one-does,

pfizer beyond tech regime, one does, you get protection of two thirds. that is really important and has unlocked a huge moving yields this year in the u.k.. this is the u.k. 10-year. you wonder what the u.s. looks like as we roll out the vaccine a little more -- what the back end of the year looks like and how the u.s. response. that is a story for later. good morning, ryan. ryan: a lot of movers are tied to earnings. getting gm earnings -- coming across estimates at one dollar 93. a lot of folks are interested at what is going on with the eb strategy. it will take some time to dig through the release and find out if they announce anything additional to what we know. mary barra has gotten a lot of kudos for the effort she has taken. also in the mobility space, list

earnings last night, revenue was down, ridership was down, but revenue per user was up, and the president giving a bullish forecast, saying the company's expected to hit profitability targets on a quarterly basis -- did not say what quarter it would be, but said it would happen this year. uber earnings are coming after the bell. they are expected to be either tom positive -- ebta positive. we did the coca-cola earnings early this morning. largely, their revenue and unit case volumes were down, but not quite as bad -- the drop was not quite as bad as what the street was looking for. that is why you see shares up. twitter -- also interesting -- i know you are big on twitter. earnings last night, 40 million added users. tom, you're doing something right here with trump off the platform, it is all up to you. tom: it is up to me, but if i

delete all of the acts that come into my twitter feed, how do they make money? romaine: i'd know. it is a mystery to me. how all of the silicon valley companies make money. alibaba. a jack ma sighting. jon: he was playing golf. romaine: he was playing golf and that is enough to boost the shares. 2:00 p.m. until 5:00 p.m. -- if you stay up that late, watch the show. tom: let's move to the economics and we can do that wonderfully with john ryding. where we are now, and of course, chairman powell speaking to the economic club of new york this afternoon. what will you listen for from chairman powell, john? john: well i don't feel we are going to hear anything new. the fed is encouraging a higher inflation rate. they have already said the

pickup in inflation they expect to see in march and april has been, to use jon's affect -- transitory -- word earlier, a transitory effect. how to deal with inflation problems requires tender policy and the fed is rather constrained with a fear of even thinking about tapering. i think they have pretty much signaled they would continue buying bonds at 120 a month for the rest of the year. tom: you have a very sharp paragraph and it is a new word we are going to introduce now -- the over-calibration of fiscal policy. what you mean by that, john? john: as i was running that piece, as i was putting the finishing touches on it, to have the -- you reported on from

larry summers, the same point, the cbo, the congressional budget office, says there is a gap of $400 billion or so between actual gdp and potential gdp. that is the potential the economy can produce on the basis of the estimation of where full employment will be. however, if we go down this route of injecting $1.9 trillion, we are injecting far more fiscal support into the economy then there is capacity to meet that support. i am all in favor of targeted support. don't get me wrong for one moment. there are a lot of people hurting -- we need to see unemployment benefits extended, something done on the potential eviction crisis. those things need to be addressed, but sending out large amounts of money to hire-income households and other things boosting the size of that package risks stimulating the economy too much at a time when

the fed is going to inject probably something close to $1.5 trillion additional, extra, high-end-powered money through its operations. there is a risk we are going to get an inflation problem. probably not going to see today in the cpi report for january, but as the year unfolds, if inflation pickup does not turn out to be transitory, the fed faces a significant problem because in the end when inflation gets out of hand and the fed has to tighten, that is when problems occur. lisa: here's what i'm struggling with, john -- there is a question right now, how much inflation, how much stimulation will this provide versus plugging a gap, and at what point can this provide longer-term inflation if it isn't helping the employment picture? or, in fact, could it be -- i know i will be reamed for this, this inflationary, that we add more debt to the balance sheet

without having as effective a boost to employment and the jobs picture? what is your view on that? john: well, my view is fairly straightforward, and that is that there is exercise we are seeing in what should be called modern monetary economics, and this episode. it was rejected by the economics profession some three years ago as bad economics. we are in a situation where if we run a large physical deficit -- fiscal deficit and fund that deficit by printing money, then it will be inflationary. it is true we have a large inertia to overcome on the price front, but if you look at surveys of the public, surveys of the public on inflation expectations have risen, not insignificantly post the pandemic. if you look in the bond market, you see the 10-year inflation

break-evens are now at 10.2%, where they were at 1.5% or lower. the fed will welcome that. will the fed address some of the signs they have seen? as i said, i am not against in any way -- i encourage providing targeted support. as for the growth dynamics, the economy has outperformed expectations coming out of the deep hole we fell into one march and april of last year. i don't think -- once we get the vaccines in people's arms, i don't think we have this negative growth hole to fill. think we have a relatively closing output gap, and we're just at risk of doing too much. tom: as you know -- jon: as you know, this is not just about the aggregate

numbers, this administration wants to target the bottom leg of the k and do something about the perceived injustices of not just the last year, but the last several years, and part of the plan is to include people that were not part of the asset move we have seen the last 12 months. does that resonate with you, john? john: i am all for addressing those issues, the issues of injustice, the issues of what you say, the bottom leg of the k , but -- and we will see when the ultimate package comes out -- but the proposal, initially, to provide an extra $1400 per month for individuals with family incomes going up to $150,000 or higher does not seem to me to be addressing the bottom leg of the k. i think people would not recognize those income levels. i am all for providing

additional support and not having unemployment benefits run out in march. that is very important. there are a lot of issues that are not about that. i think that those people at the lower end are always the people that get hurt first when the economy, when the titans, growth slows -- the fed tightens, growth slows. i 100% agree with that intent, i just don't think the size of this package really addresses that and addresses a lot of other things, too. jon: hurt first and sometimes recover last. john: absolutely. jon: the debate of the moment in economics. tom: there is no question about the debate and we will hear from chairman powell. we already getting mail in from

viewers and listeners going back and forth. jon: from new york, good morning. alongside lisa abramowicz and tom keene, i am jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first-word news, i am ritika gupta. it is a second full day of donald trump's impeachment trial and house impeachment managers will make their opening arguments, wanted to show the former president encouraged him out to storm the capital. before democrats vote for -- a full 50 democrats will vote for conviction. the public in 2017 americans to cross lines. donald trump has asked palm beach to let him stay full-time that is mar-a-lago resort. a lawyer for the former president said he should be allowed to live there since he is an employee of the club. local residents have said he should not be allowed to live there because of zoning rules. a house committee has passed a

portion of the 1.9 trillion stimulus package that includes a minimum wage increase. republicans objected, citing a congressional budget office study saying that more than doubling the minimum wage would cost 1.4 million jobs. and the controversial former pro football quarterback colin kaepernick has joined the spak frenzy. he has not played in the nfl since 2016, the year he launched player protests during the national anthem to bring attention to racism and police brutality. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake powered by 2400 journalists in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> while we are fighting this pandemic and until it is clear we are out of the woods, i think we have got to be aggressive. so, the challenge will be, after it is clear we have weathered it, we have to move away from these extraordinary measures, in my opinion, and i think will be far healthier for it.

jon: interesting conversation with robert kaplan, the dallas fed president. interesting op-ed from the new york fed president, mr. dudley. tom: we don't need to talk about it now other than he lines up the ducks. at the bottom of the essay i believe mr. dudley is reflecting inflation concerns. jon: that is the punchline -- we might have to cut back on stimulus sooner to keep inflation in check. we will talk about that later. tom: and that is going up to chairman powell's comments. this is a joy and an honor for "bloomberg surveillance" where we try to do as much as we can on this horrific natural disaster. albert -- is at yell. y --ale1 he owns the high ground on the study of vaccines, and he goes where the poor are.

he joins us on vaccinations. i have to go to the southern border of the united states. it is impoverished, hispanic, and those statistics are grim -- tell us about the virus, the vexing path, and the poor of america. albert: two are very much for the invitation to return on your show. i think that is on all of our bandwidth. first of all, the and equitable and disproportionate impact this pandemic has had on not only the poorest countries, but the poor segments of our population that includes the impoverished in the south and the second thing we are worried about is vaccines that are going to amplify that inequity or that is proportionate burden with, how to use it -- impoverished or under-served communities having lower access to the vexing than

wealthier communities. -- vaccine than wealthier communities. tom: what are policies from other countries we can affect to get to the poor faster? dr. ko: i would hold up searching countries, like you mention, brazil, where i worked where they had mass back to nation programs and they round -- vaccination programs and they run them effectively. the main thing is to keep things simple and the second thing is to provide access. intense numbers of clinics and vaccination sites in those communities where they have lower outtakes and less access in general. in that sense, countries like india, brazil, they are, kind of, models for us to follow. lisa: john reference this study showing in the netted kingdom one dose of the pfizer biontech

vaccine provided two thirds of protection, good news, and indicates you will get acceleration of the impact of vaccination even before a complete doses taken. do we have a sense of how much the vexing has acted as a circuit breaker to stop the pandemic? dr. ko: that is certainly promising news, and there is also information -- very good quality information coming out of places like israel, which have been rolling out the vaccine quickly, and giving us a snap shot of what could happen here in the notice states if we were to roll out across the population in large numbers -- united states if we were to roll out across the population in large numbers. at this moment, unfortunately to really get what we call the year -- herd immunity effects, the population benefit of the vaccine through either the first dose as well as receiving the second dose, it will require us vaccinating much larger numbers,

much larger swabs of our population to do that. right now we're still less than 10% of our country has been vaccinated. we need to get those numbers up much higher and much faster. there will be more important when thinking about the threat of variants. jon: do you think we need to recalibrate to optimize the rollout -- some have pushed back about doing a one dose and pushing out the time between the first dose and the second dose -- is that something that resonates with you, something you would endorse? dr. ko: again, i think, first of all, jon, we have to be humble. we have learned a lot in a very short time about this virus, and we're continuously learning, and as studies,, particularly the u.k. study, that makes us more confident that the policy anglin had proposed, which is giving the first -- england's had

proposed, which is giving the first shot and delaying the second shots are they can't immunize larger portions of the -- can immunize larger portions of the population may be successful. everyone will look at this as it rolls out, but it is certainly pointing that way. lisa: i'm reluctant to ask you this, because i don't want to know the answer, but the post-pandemic future, coronavirus is not going away -- it will probably mutate -- that is a professional site. are we going to be mask was -- what will it look like as an comes part of the medical backdrop of the world? dr. ko: let me break that down into two parts -- the short term and the long term. we know these variants are emerging, and they are being fueled by mutations, and those mutations are being fueled by large-scale, widespread, uncontrolled transmission, and as long as we are not controlling transmission, we are

going to set ourselves up for continued selection of variants that potentially may escape natural infection, the immunity caused by natural infection, but also those by vaccines. let me make a second point -- this cannot be done, just in the u.k., the united states, or south africa -- it has to be done -- the control of transmission as a driver for these variants has to be done throughout the world. they can travel from one place to the other. that is certainly the concern in the short run. in the long run that means -- exactly, as you say your fear -- we're going to have to keep continuing the public health practice of masks, social gathering reduction and social dist jon: italy reallicul to -- it will be really difficult to reopen international travel. thank you.

interesting case studies worth our attention. in the u.k. they have a situation were almost 19% of the population has received one dose, but fewer than 1% has received both. compare that to the united states -- 10.2% of the population has had one shot, and more than 3% are fully vaccinated. that is with the u.k. has prioritized, trying to get people the one shot and pushing up the second dose. the data this morning, lisa mentioned it -- it is supportive of the practice. tom: it is exactly what you do, and this is the unknown -- the unknown is to be expected, how you recalibrate, and frankly recalibrate an recalibrate again, and going out to, three, and four years, and trying to optimize. jon: coming up later on bloomberg television, microsoft's ceo sets in a

dollar. from new york, -- seth in the dela. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the outlook is still very much a fixable story. >> people are trading big morale numbers are >> firms do not have as much pricing power as they used to. >> firms are in danger of markets overheating. >> a lot of u.s. stimulus is not stimulus at all. it is an antidepressant. >> until it is clear we are out of the woods, i think we have got to be aggressive. tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan ferro, lisa