francine: the inflation debate, labor market, european markets trend lower, while agent traitors curtailed by the lunar new year holiday. president biden says the united states plans for 100 million more vaccine doses. the majority of adults could be vaccinated by the end of july. and the economy shrinks nearly

10% in 2020, the worst yearly performance since 1709. the u.k. shows signs of resilience. good morning, everyone, and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i am francine lacqua here in london. fourth-quarter gdp in the u.k. is actually better than expected, but there are indications that things are better. global stocks are sliding. the year of the ox, which is why a lot of us actually dressed in red this morning. oil futures falling for the second day. markets in asia actually close for the lunar new year holiday, and the big question, of course, once we have the vaccines, once we have some of this stimulus, will it lead to higher inflation? bitcoin trading at a record. coming up in the program, we talk about the employment picture with alain dehaze.

that is coming up later in the program, a really good conversation about what skills you need for future jobs. now let's get to the bloomberg first word news in london with leigh-ann gerrans. hi, leigh-ann. leigh-ann: hi, francine. the u.s. economy has seen the worst growth since 17 oh nine, when frost killed crops. but europe has grown, twice in the expected in the fourth quarter. chancellor richi sunak says it is right to proceed cautiously. chancellor sunak: right now, many families and businesses are experiencing hardships. leigh-ann: crossing to europe, italy's mario draghi has won broad support in efforts to form a new government, the five-star

movement. the biggest force in italy's parliament put its weight behind him yesterday after online vote of members. the designate is expected to report back to the president with the picks for his cabinet. and the of trillion open tennis tournament in melbourne will continue, without spectators, as the city enters a five-day lockdown here to all residents of the city and surrounding state of victoria must stay at home except for essential active fees, including work. australia is hoping to contain an outbreak of a more of ireland variant -- virulent variant of the virus. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg @quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: leigh-ann, thank you so much. there are tentative signs that the u.s. labor market is increasing gradually. over 700 90,000 last week. continuing claims an

approximation of the number of people actually filing for these ongoing benefits fell by 145,000 to more than 4.5 million in the week ending on january 30. now, any recovery in the labor market will of course be driven by the ongoing vaccine drive or how that continues. president joe biden announced the u.s. will have 100 million additional doses each from pfizer and moderna your he also spoke at the national institute of health on the current state. pres. biden: three weeks ago, this country did not have a plan. we did not have enough vaccines or people to vaccinate americans. any and all americans at any time and any point in 2021, within three weeks, around-the-clock work for so many people, people standing behind me and in front of me, we now have enough vaccines applied to vaccinate all americans. francine: joining us to talk about the reflation trade and of

course trading volumes and everything in between is thushka jeannequin from j.p. morgan asset management. thank you for joining us. when you look at some of the big debates out there -- and it is all about inflation -- more vaccines, more vaccinations, more doses, and global inflation. is that your main worry? thushka: yes. good morning, francine. as you say, this is the central debate that we are having with them are multi-asset team. i say over the next six months to 12 months, we are in a subdued inflation count, basically the idea that we are dealing with excess capacity on the labor market side. we still have vaccines, whether that is technology, demographic profile, as well as inequality, so low wage growth in general, all of these keeping inflation

low over the next 12 months. but there is a lot of uncertainty, and when i look at what markets are pricing, for example, five-year break even in the u.s., about 2.4%, let's call it, 2.5%, that is already pricing and a lot of optimism over the medium term of inflation, and that is a reflection of the uncertainty of how fiscal stimulus will be used . it is a possibility that more spending on the fiscal side will increase inflation premium. for now, we are almost sanguine, and actually, cpi are reinforcing that view. francine: thushka, are you actually expecting central banks -- and this is what we heard from jay powell earlier this week -- that he will unscrew that kind of inflation, at least at first? thushka: yes, absolutely. jay powell's comments over the

last few days have reinforced our view that central banks are willing to wait until inflation is rising on a sustained basis, inflation coming from wage pressure, inflation acting organically from a tight labor market, and that is still a while away. so jay powell's comments are very reassuring for markets, even if you get inflation in the coming months, that is of no concern at the moment to the central bank. and under average inflation targeting framework and asymmetry, we are in the camp that the federal reserve will wait for inflation to be rising on a sustained basis before even thinking about raising rates. francine: are you expecting, thushka, for the biden administration to give us an idea of what markets will do? is he going to raise taxes, and what will the u.s.-china relationship actually look like?

thushka: so, as of now, we remain positive on risk markets, and part of our rationale for that positive view around equities and credit is that support for fiscal stimulus, as you say, central banks remaining easy, despite the expectation of a rebound in the second half of this year. but fiscal policy also feeling that recovery. and under that biden administration, we are expecting an increase in fiscal spend. it may not be as high as the $1.9 trillion that is being discussed today, but it is still extremely stimulative, and the key part is as we are moving to the second half of this year, the stimulus turns into a post-cyclical stimulus, again, having that background and risk markets. what it means for the u.s.-china relations, i say that, you know, we are more confident on a more

traditionalist or conventional relationship between u.s. and china. this does not mean that you have -- but seeing more traditional policies or foreign relations between these two fiscal powers is fundamental to volatility in risk markets. fundamentally, we are expecting a more protectable relationship, which means that, you know, the risk premium, having the dollar, for example, or trade uncertainty and uncertainty on the reaction function of the u.s. government in the past, we see that lower today. and also what this means for trading relations for the euro area or other parts of the global supply chain, we see this as actually being supported for that cyclical recovery and risk markets that we are expecting. francine: thushka, so what does this mean for the dollar? thushka: yeah, so, your two

points, one, the central banks keeping rates anchored is obviously negative for the rate support for the dollar. but the fiscal stimulus in the u.s., i would say that is an area where we are very focused on at the moment. can you see u.s. fiscal stimulus reasserting u.s. exceptionalism, in economic terms? we are of the view that the dollar is on a weakening trend over the, let's say, next 12 months, very conscious at the moment. there are technically led support for the dollar, short-term, is entirely possible. these are the opportunities to be reassessing that view on the dollar weakening. a few reasons for that -- one, our view on the global growth recovery, a broad-based economic recovery. secondly, u.s. fiscal spending is no longer exceptional. we have the european recovery

fund now that is not exist, you know, three years ago, and that is a balancing factor for that exceptional question. and finally, china is also exceptional in many terms, and that, again, is reducing support for the u.s. dollar. so medium-term, we are expecting the dollar to continue weakening on a broad-based basis. francine: thank you so much, thushka maharaj there from jp morgan stays with us. what does 2021 hold for one of the world's biggest aluminum producers? we speak with the company's chief financial officer next.

francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am francine lacqua here in london. let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash, here's leigh-ann gerrans. hi, leigh-ann. leigh-ann: hi, francine. uber think they can come back faster than other modes of transport when the roads open up again after the pandemic. achieving the possibility that tends on when that reopening will happen. hoover's food delivery business is growing, but it is not yet taking up or a decline in ridership. >> our delivery business continues to accelerate, so it does feel like the pandemic has generally caused a perfect storm, where people are home, but it has also shifted behavior in some kind of permanent weight. so far, we are seeing delivery habits now continue to grow at very high rates. leigh-ann: and disney is posting a surprise profit for the quarter, linking subscribers to its streaming service. it also saw lower losses at its

theme parks, which is still suffering due to the pandemic. the disney plus service grew to nearly 95 million subscribers, benefiting from high-profile programming, like "star wars" spin off "the mandalorian." and that is your bloomberg business flash. francine? francine: leigh-ann, thank you so much. let's get back to the market and the frenzy of trading in u.s. equities showing no signs of abating. enduring the worst of the pandemic panic in march. traders have traded each day on all u.s. exchanges. still with us, thushka maharaj of j.p. morgan asset management. the frenzy, you know, i mean, the volumes are huge, but actually you do not see a lot of volatility. what does it tell you about the kind of market we are looking at? thushka: as you say, francine, the run-up that we have had has been spectacular.

i have was looking at some bets on the average price points that were being traded. actually what we noted in big cap volume, what we have seen as more buying of the small-cap, so the lower-priced for the market, and that rotation, support for small-cap markets like the russell, seeing that run-up as being amazing. we remain positive on these aspects of the economy. what we see for capital structure is very supportive for small-cap equities. but equally, at the same time, we are being cautious in the short-term, given how quickly the market has moved. i think you highlight an important point here. it is a considerable risk market, so just be very conscious that the market is already pricing it in, so being prudently positioned at this stage. francine: do you actually see

bubbles in certain parts of the market? thushka: um, so, a few things that come to mind. high valuations, yes, across the board, some of it supported by fundamental earnings, and the earnings season that we have been through has actually been an upside surprise to us. but, yes, the froth and exuberance that you are seeing in ipo's and certain parts of the listing market is catching our attention. i would not necessarily say we are in bubble territory, but we are seeing exuberance in parts of the market. crucially, though, the froth is higher in equity markets and areas of opportunity. there are parts of the market that have been fueled by excess liquidity an extremely low interest rates. francine: when you look at some of, you know, the big stories out there, so, of course, of it has to do with this

semiconductors, tactical positions on some of these news stories, or do you look at the more kind of, you know, longer prospects of vaccines and lockdowns when some of the countries reopen? thushka: yes, yes, so as you say, there are near-term catalyst for, let's call it relative performance, the flight out of italy has been positive. it is not necessarily changed our view we are positive on european adverse markets, partly because of our view of the capture of vaccine rollout in europe, partly because european equity markets are lower to the cyclical global recovery, and partly because of the view on the policy fund, we see a material change in support both on fiscal and monetary policy. so the news flow out of italy has been supportive for that, but i would say that is additional rather than necessarily game changing.

on the others, on vaccine rollout and shortage of semiconductors, i think this basically highlights our dependence on the global's economy -- dependence on the global economy, and we have had risk markets, especially on the equity side, for a while. that may seem consensus, and it may seem like it is already well-positioned for and priced in, but i think the points you highlight on this shortage of semiconductors is just another support for that trade, and of course given the support, in terms of stimulus, we just remain pretty positive there. francine: thank you so much for your insight, thushka maharaj , global strategist at jp morgan. coming up, the dating app ipo

francine: shares of bumble, the dating app where women make the first move, moved chief executive whitney wolfe herd's stock to over $1 billion. whitney: it has been a profound ride commend i am seriously feeling grateful and humbled, and really it is a surreal day, but we know that the work starts

today. [laughs] we have already had our cheers and our small celebration, and it is back to business, thinking long-term. we are not watching the stock. we are going to carry on, and we have got a lot of work to do. emily: well, we are watching the stock. you have raised a couple billion dollars, but it is already up over 70%. investors are screaming from the rooftops that there is something wrong with this process. airbnb up 100% opening-day, poshmark up 150%. do you at all feel like you left money on the table here? whitney: the way i look at this is we feel that we priced the way we were all comfortable. we were running a business, and we understand that we needed to show up and operate and hit earnings and beat earnings, and we feel that we made the right decision. the framework of these valuations -- people are subscribing to the long-term, and i think that is the right way to look at it. we are building something for the long-term. you are not joining us on a journey today, just for

tomorrow. you are signing up for our very long road ahead of us, to try and make relationships healthier and more equitable and to build a brand that resonates not just with women but makes connections better for everyone, and so, you know, the folks who have joined us on this journey to date, i am grateful for them, and we are really excited for everything that lies ahead. emily: so that app has thrived in the lockdown. you already had video on there, you added things like voice chat, fun games, virtual badges. but how does the growth story change out of the pandemic? are you concerned people will be tired of talking to each other online, and they are going to want to meet in person? whitney: so we think we are well-positioned on both sides of this pandemic. this pandemic has proven that loneliness is not the way we were designed to live. we were designed to love and be loved and have healthy and equitable relations and community, not just love

relationships. so we feel like we are positioned to serve our community during this challenging time, with video and at home features, like you suggested, audio, video games, and others coming soon. but on the other end of this, we feel like we are well-positioned to thrive in the sense that people have seen the true benefit of online dating. it is unlikely to, you know, ever revert back to how it was. francine: well, that was of bumble chief executive whitney wolfe herd speaking to bloomberg's emily chang. coming up, norsk hydro reports earnings. what is 2021 hold for one of the world's biggest aluminum producers? we speak to the chief financial officer next, and this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london. let's get straight to the

bloomberg first word news with leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: house prosecutors have concluded their case for convicting donald trump in the senate impeachment trial. they say they have proven the former president is guilty of inciting insurrection when his supporters attacked to the capitol. to prevent the trees -- the peaceful transfer of power. the defense is set to present its case later today. the new york times is reporting that former president donald trump was sicker with covid-19 than was publicly acknowledged. the paper cites sources in saying he had extremely depressed blood oxygen levels and a lung problem associated with pneumonia. officials believe he would need to be put on a ventilator. the u.k. and e.u. remained deadlocked over how to implement the brexit deal in northern ireland. three hours of high-level talks failed to resolve key disagreements over trade. tensions have flayed over financial services.

the supply of vaccines, and the flow of goods between mainland britain and northern ireland. >> caused by brexit, not by the protocol. the protocol's assertion. i am sure if it is correctly implemented, by everybody, it will be progress for northern ireland. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine? let's get to our interview -- francine: let's get to our interview. north hydro has come in ahead of analyst estimates for the fourth quarter. thank you so much for

joining us, that killed demo. for the fourth quarter -- pat kildemo. what can you tell us what comes after the fourth quarter? pat: thank you for having us on today. the demand of the fourth quarter was much stronger than what we had expected in the fourth quarter driven by the demand for automotive's. and a -- through this second wave, through reemergence, with different covid scenarios, demand is holding up quite strong because operations are still producing -- consumers are still consuming. the large d stocking in the second quarter, we now see it

taking upwards. and that upticks the demand. francine: when you look at the semi conductor shortages we are seeing across the world, it is impacting. how has it impacted your company? pat: so far it has not impacted our company, but we read about impacts to automotive. that could impact us, but we have not received or seen any signs from our customers so far. francine: are you expecting chip shortages to worsen? pat: we don't have a strong view on chip shortages and the demand for balances, so i'm not in a position to comment on it. based on a dialogue with customers, they are not up in, so not having to produce the same volume francine:.

. francine: how can you get into the aluminum space? pat: we have for years been pushing greener products. low co2 content recycled products. we have not been able to get the premium on them. now we could good premium and volume commitment, and that is a a la minium producer. -- unlimited producer. francine: how big could that become? i hope to have interviews before then, but if i speak to you in two or three years, how much of your percentage of your sales will you be doing in that space? pat: we produce a bit over 2 million tons of aluminum. off of that, half of that, one million pounds -- in addition,

we could be able to produce another 400,000 pounds probably in our brazilian operations, and some more of the others. so 50% to 75% could fall within the space on the current set up. we're doing quite a lot to further improve the co2 from our earlier operations, which could further increase the level. francine: where do you see the price of aluminum going from here? pat: we are trading a bit above the cost curve, also helped by stronger financial interest for aluminum it is undermining the current price level. francine: it is -- is it a good time for investors to hedge on the price? pat: that is a good question because we don't do a lot of hedging for a la minium but we

have increased at hedging positions due to the fact that we are creating at the levels that we are seeing at the better part of the cycle. but that is not only the a la minium price. that is why we have hedged a bit more than we normally do. francine: when you look at the biden administration, what does it mean for trade globally, and how much of a lift is the biden administration give hydro? pat: we are a global company. we are also a quite sustainable company in the aluminum space. and the new commentary around ambitions and rejoining the paris agreement, etc. that we agree would be positive for operations in america but also globally.

different trade barriers can cause distortions, of course, but with the global system we been able to redirect our growth and not necessarily suffer losses as a result of these trade measures. francine: pat kildemo, thank you for joining us. coming up, moving into the next phase of recovery. what will tomorrow's labor market look like? that is coming up next, and this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london. let's get straight to your bloomberg business flash with leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: a company catering to women and led by women has made its 31-year-old father a billionaire. the ceo is at -- founder a billionaire. the ceo is at $31.5 million. bumble is only the third company founded by a woman. >> i am just so proud of our team forgetting to this day. it has been such a journey. for those people who believed in us and subscribed to this radical idea of a woman making the first move, they have been the ones who really drove this home. leigh-ann: bitcoin has hit a record of $48,600.

the jump comes after mastercard and be why and mellon -- and be why mellon -- when tesla ceo see elon musk announced the company was making a $5.1 billion bitcoin purchase. that is the bloomberg business flash. francine: as the global economy moves into recovery phase, which sector of the labor market will do best? as offices reopen, what is the future of working from home? according to a survey by adecco, employees would rather work remotely. same staff believes they would spend a quarter of their week at home as the company insists they returned to the office. we go to the chief executive of the adecco group, elena has -- alain dehaze.

what do you think post pandemic will be the biggest legacy of what we went through? >> i would say four things. first of all, the future will be flexible, so there is this kind of new normal or new universal, which is a 50-50. meaning that people who want to work 50% of the time at the office, and the other 50% in a remote way, either at home or somewhere else. that is the first really new trend post pandemic. second, it means also that it is the end of 9-to-5 work. and the end of the 9-to-5 means that companies and employers will have to look at a different way at how results are delivered. and also a lot more, some kind of measuring, just the time at the desk. and third, homework is here to

stay for some of the population to grow. we see also that employees need emotionally intelligent leaders because during this first lockdown, 28% of them were suffering from some kind of mental illness. they also said that only 10% of their manager were coping with this mental, isolated situation. so emotionally intelligent leaders is also a very important characteristic of the future. and last but not least, yeah, digitization. digital skills have improved even for more recently. we see 60% of the people are really asking for upscaling, in this area. francine: is it the tech space? what are the skills?

if you were to advise someone who needs reskilling right now, is it a specific sector? is it critical thinking? is it masks? what is it? alain: it means that all the scientific, technical, medical skills are largely in demand, for sure there is need of reskilling there. but on the others, because of this new normal, there is need for more empathy, or creativity, more collaboration. and that is why you need to reskill yourself in those two areas, the hard skills have the soft skills. francine: what kind of workplace will we create, alain dehaze? we saw this dynamic of people wanting to work from home and employers saying because of the dna, i want people to work together in the office. where will it end up? how many people will be able to work from home, and how does it

change the relationship with the employer? alain: for sure, in some areas it is possible -- it is possible to perform your activity from home and you need to be at the manufacturing plant because you need some kind of equipment. but we see from the study and from all of our experience, yeah, the activity of work, of desk work, can be done everywhere. so it means that if i take some statistic today, people are spending 70% of their real estate towards work and 30% about collaboration. i expect going forward that it will be the other way around, that you will come to the office to really collaborate, to meet colleagues, to work on projects, to have creative sessions, and that all the classical working process will be done in a remote way, allowing people to avoid all this mobility -- all these

mobility issues, and transportation and improving their quality of life and their productivity. francine: when you look at some of the things that will change, do you think that employer groups will acquire the services of an adecco a lot more he echo will you be able to supply more workers as the shift, as they are building back? how much will be full-time employees and how much will be on short contracts? alain: we see that going forward, all these new type of activities model the platform economy is requesting more and more flexibility on one hand, and that is also the element of the younger generation of the labor force. so more flexible to become a but these companies are outsourcing management of flexibility

because then we are all living in -- very volatile and predictable, complex and vigorous world, so they want to have a partner taking care of this volatility in the labor force. they also want to have them taking care of building b talent, and sometimes reskilling the talent. because we see many companies because of the acceleration of digitization, and a lot of companies need to reskill an upscale their employees. we are coming as more of the global leader in scaling and reskilling. so again a lot of what that a lot positive for the company. francine: when you look at some of the big disruption in the workplace, are we underestimating the jobs lost in

the transition period? and how many workers will actually be displaced? alain: there are many statistics and different statistics. i was reading that around 80% of the jobs that will be, let's say, active in 2030 are not existing yet today. so it means that there will be a huge need for upscaling and reskilling people. i think the challenge we are facing today is the challenge of synchronization? -- of synchronization. what do i mean by this? because of technology, some industries, companies are disrupted and need to reinvent themselves, to implement new technology and a new way of doing. and at the same time, for that they will have to eventually displace people and rehire new skills and capabilities. you see a lot of creation of new business, of new industries.

all this tech and platform economy is growing extremely fast. e-commerce. so for the government, for the employees and employers, the challenge is -- the challenge of synchronization, how do you take sure that at the same time you have to replace people you create enough opportunities for these people, to stay active, to stay employable he echo challenge also is, -- to stay employable? and the challenge is, how do i stay attractive in this market, which is changing at a very rapid pace? francine: thank you so much, alain dehaze. coming up, it just under two hours into the european stock trading day, we will bring you all of the movers. that is coming up next, and this is bloomberg. ♪

>> many people recognize that

the fed is all in, they are going to be very accommodative. the new monetary policy regime will push to 2%. the fed is accomplishing its mission of keeping inflation expectations around 2%. francine: that was new york fed president bill dudley, weighing in on the inflation debate in america. more on the inflation debate throughout the show. first of all, happy first day of the ox chinese new year. just under two hours into the european share trading session, let's check in on the stock movers with dani burger. dani: of course, lots of earnings come a really strong one from ing. more profits. one of the biggest gainers of the day. they are hoping to return to dividends as soon as the ecb

gives them the go-ahead. we talked with the ing cfo about this earlier today. >> we think with the better macroeconomic situation that growth will resume with pricing discipline, additional fee income growth, as well as cost efficiency. believe we are back on track for a challenging 2020. dani: back on track. of course, that's exactly what investors want to hear. the other earnings we got after the bill yesterday, proving to be one of the big gainers today, is l'oreal. a lot of their luxury brands were brought in airports, for example. no travel means less sales. what they were able to make up for that in what they call their active skincare line -- moisturizers, creams, that sort of thing. they had a very strong showing, meaning sales were at 4.8 percent growth in the fourth quarter. analysts expected less than 3%, so definitely beating

expectations there. and apparently therapy, one of their products, has a cult following. if you can make an on tiktok, you can make it in your earnings. one of the companies we have to keep an ion premarket is of course disney, almost up to percent post-market with more than 1% -- with more than 1.5% after earnings. parks are closed for disney, so it's a situation there. but disney plus is much higher than expected. about 25 million expectations were around 21 million. really interesting that they were able to see a lot of growth at the same time as netflix. so that cannibalization of the streaming platforms not going on -- i don't know about you, but i subscribe to all of the streamers, so i understand that. francine: i don't watch them. yeah. dani: the pixar film tugs at your heartstrings.

francine: i have. i don't like it. i don't like anything said. the harold pinters, those movies. give me happy stuff. dani: i get that. francine: we will have plenty more on the markets, all declining today in the trading session. hooking at european stocks, they are slumping. i'm also looking at energy stocks posting losses. treasuries edging up. bitcoin -- looking at bitcoin, it is still on a tear, and more companies that are mainstream are trying to get into it, i guess at the margins. for example, mastercard. dollar up against some of its peers. "bloomberg surveillance" continues in the next hour. ♪

francine: the inflation debate

persists amid a sluggish u.s. labor market. european markets trend lower, while asian trade is curtailed by the lunar new year holiday. well, president biden says the united states has clinched deals for 200 million more vaccine doses and enough supply for all americans. the majority of adults could be vaccinated by the end of july. and the british economy shrinks nearly 10% in 2020. that's the worst yearly performance since 1709. rishi sunak says the u.k. shows signs of resilience. good morning, everyone, and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london, tom keene in new york. tom, first of all, happy year of the ox. i know it starts today. we look at the stock market, the number of volumes out there. we are not seeing a lot of volatility, but if you look at the volumes it could be symptomatic of frothiness in equities. we have breaking news. this is bloomberg, a story