>> while the recession is over, the pandemic is not. >> the risk of doing too little are far worse. >> this cycle is worse than any other. >> the economy couldn't bounce bit -- could bounce back faster than anyone expected. >> we are flooding the economy with monetary and fiscal stimulus. >> if you don't have money invested in the equity market, where do you put it? >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom: good morning, everyone.

bloomberg television worldwide and nationwide. it is a presidential birthday. i know it is confusing. it is presidents' day, but that is not really a birthday. february 22 is when washington took the colonies away. lincoln was after we left the british and that is today, our 16th president. jonathan: is that how you want to start this hour. tom: i wore my 19th-century paris tie. jonathan: are you upset? tom: no, i just think it is a big day. all is well in the markets. what is her number one observation? tom: very different to yours, apparently. a lot of cash. you can see that in the ipo. fixed income markets.

you can see it across the board. volumes exploding. tom: link bumble with the apple bond issue. it is really all the same story. jonathan: i agree. if we look at the markets, the issuance, don't know where you are going. you look at the ipo's and anything that has come to markets have been upsize. we saw the upsize. some people might say this is a good thing we have got loose financial conditions. it will grease the wheels. other people might say this is signs of froth and a misallocation of assets and resources. tom: the other thing that has changed as we get ready for the week and seriously move into the spring of this year is the pandemic news is just simply

better. from where you read in, how much better is the pandemic news? lisa: one of the most encouraging bits of news was that president biden announced the u.s. had secured more vaccines. he accelerated the timeframe to july when i believe we could potentially have 300 million doses that could be distributed more widely. i just want to circle back to a point about all of this liquidity. the money and record flows into equity funds. this comes with a backdrop that is still federal reserve was peddled to the metal. we are having a balance sheet of $7.4 trillion. we talk about easing monetary and financial conditions. if the fed has its way, they will stay easy and possibly even go easier. jonathan: i would add to this, the savings rates exploded. there is a ton of cash in money market funds. i understand the fed is part of the demand side because they have been buying a lot of the assets.

you see this particular dynamic take place in a front end like germany. there is a lot of savings out there in money market funds looking for a home. many think those will be paired down when people reengage with the economy. i'm fascinated to see how that develops. tom: i would suggest to you that it is a mystery. we don't know that unique fiscal impulse. jonathan: no. tom: will it go into consumption or the dow jones? we don't know. jonathan: there is a big debate about what will happen this time. does it get spent or go into savings? lisa: a lot of people have pointed to the fact the in the past, a lot of it did go into savings. that said, i think there is a nuance and that is all of the debt deferrals and amounts of obligations people have had build up that they are going to pay back when things open up. i think it is a compliment -- complicated issue. tom: we have a wonderful set of

guests for you on radio and television. dow futures -19. it is like half a day to check because it is really a turn market. bitcoin, 48,000. they have a really interesting exercise they go through every earnings season. what is transcript tagging and what have you learned? lori: we go through on my team all of the earnings call transcript with s&p 500 companies. it is a pretty manual labor intensive process and we want to see what companies are talking about. we try to gauge and see what they are saying. we know companies are coming in and beating left and right on 2020 numbers, but when they are

talking about the forward outlook, there are two camps. when expressing optimism and a second that has been really pushing the narrative of things are still uncertain. it wasn't as biased toward that bullish look at the vaccine rollout as i would have thought. jonathan: talk to me about a performance post earnings. what is the take away? lori: depending on which day you update the data, half of companies that have posted results so far in this recording season have gone down 1% or more in the one-day trading session after the results. that has gotten better as we have gone through reporting season, but i think it is a testament to how high expectations were coming into this reporting's season. this kind of mediocre, maybe things will get better, we don't really know. it is not cutting it and you are not seeing 2020 assumptions go up in a meaningful way. jonathan: i've been trying to work out where the spot in the calendar is because i think some

people are still forgiving of any downside surprises because they are hoping and believing things get better in the future. what is the test date for you? lori: april. we are going to get out of this year ahead outlook season and we start to hear early reporters talk about what the full year outlook is. stocks have been marching along the 2009-2010 recovery path. april is when you did get a pullback of the market of significant size. about 10 months into recovery trade post recession, you typically get a big round of consolidation. that april timeframe is perhaps when we will finally get the pullback a lot of people have been looking for. lisa: next week, we are getting all of those hearings with what happened with gamestop and amc in some of these other moves that were attribute it to retail

the had other institutional players. how much does this affect your focus and the indexes that track these kinds of shares? how big of a concern is that that this kind of activity could wildly restore both returns as well as money allocations if it persists? lori: i have two critical thoughts. i don't think retail investor -- we want it done in a way that is not bringing excessive risk upon those individuals. i think the door has been open so unless the regulators really come in and close it down, i think retail is probably here to stay and keep fishing in the small-cap cap pond for a while. the second thing i would tell you from an institutional commute perspective, there was no one more unhappy than small-cap managers. they did not own the kinds of names that retail was going

after. if you look at the last week of january, only 9% of small-cap value managers beat their benchmark. they were not really willing to go in but they were curious to see if everyone else was. lisa: did i start following read it and just going along with the crowd? lori: i think we have an inherent problem in active management which is that even value managers, everyone has these quality biases and have veered over to the side of the quality trade. these lower quality names have really been ignored and are sort of orphans in the market so to speak. i think we need to recognize that this situation where everyone in the institutional community is going to sit on the same side of the boat is just not going to be allowed to exist indefinitely. they do need to fish more on that side of the pond. jonathan: i have missed you. tom: what she just said is extraordinarily important.

this is the active pass of small-cap. jonathan: it has been a long time. can we do a shout out to baby emmett? lori: he just got his first tooth and he is sleeping through the night. dream baby. tom: did he get any bumble shares? lisa: oh my god. lori: no, but my five-year-old did try to let me talk them into trading some stocks. jonathan: i am sure i am sure i'm not alone. wall street has missed you. welcome back. fantastic research coming out of the team. tom: this is so important. it is grinding research. when they get smart on tv, it all starts with a 12 page research report with huge acuity. she delivers that almost every time. lisa: did you guys read the

carson block essay in the financial times? he basically was blaming leverage which was spurred by low leverage rates and saying basically some of these traders will have an outsized impact because of all the passive financing that follows along. i think that is a really compelling argument. he has a bone to pick it, but i thought it was really fascinating. jonathan: he has a point. you mention how you did not get a job 20 years ago. do you know the story for how tom got hired to bloomberg? matt told me the story. tom used to have a buzz cut and used to be shaped. that is how tom turned up for the interview with a buzz cut. tom: this is ancient history. matt thought, let's mix things up in the newsroom. lisa: because of the buzz cut? tom: dan is one of the giants in

his late 80's. truly one of the last boston old guard. he is the foundation, the last one. jonathan: lucky to have him with is unlucky to have you. tom: oh please. shut up. [indiscernible] tom: we got dwight evans coming up. he can make the throw to third base. jonathan: from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: the biden administration is changing the way the u.s. handles asylum-seekers. it will slowly start to admit those turned away by the trump administration under the so-called remain in mexico policy. there are an estimated 25,000 migrants waiting at the southern border. house prosecutors have concluded their case for convicting donald trump in his senate impeachment

trial. they say they have proven the former president incited an insurrection when a mob of supporters stormed the u.s. capital. trump lawyers will present their own case today and include video presentations, perhaps an attempt to counter the gripping video at the capitol the house prosecutors showed. house committee has approved the $1400 payments to millions of americans. those will be part of president biden's $1.9 trillion dollar package. it also includes payments to children that will be mailed out on a monthly basis. the u.k. and eu are still at a standstill over the northern ireland deal. it imposed checks on goods moving across the irish sea to great britain. some in boris johnson's party are fiercely opposed to that.

this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it is no secret that the vaccination program was in much worse shape than my team and i

anticipated. we were told we had a lot more resources than we did when we came in office. we have only been here three weeks, but we have learned a great deal. jonathan: president biden on the vaccination program. from new york city this morning, good morning. quick check of the prices. equity futures pulling back from record highs. crude, softer, lower to $58 a barrel. just around things out in the bond market, 117.48. just on the vaccinations in america in the past week, your average doses per day, 1.62 million. this is still heading in the right direction. tom: each and every day. as lisa mentioned the good news of a number of vaccines.

what we know for certain here is a fancy guy and a fancy suit with a fancy bowtie will go get a second vaccination this morning. the national disgrace that we have is the distribution pretty much as for the fancy people. dwight evans is living this intent -- in philadelphia. we are thrilled he could join us this morning. you know it is a disgrace the way we have distributed the vaccine. the key word here is fast. what do you need from president biden and congress so that we fast distribute the vaccine to all who need it? >> there is no question that the [indiscernible] i believe president biden, and we are working together to address those issues. there is no question that senior citizens, essential workers, people of color, are having a

very difficult time getting access to the program. that is wrong. we must change that. i believe we are moving in the right direction and i think it is clear in april we should be in the right place. tom: tell us in the trenches of your resin -- your legislation, what we are doing about educating people and particularly, people that don't have an acute science background? we seem to be so far behind. how do we educate and educate fast? >> there is no question that -- there's no use of talking about the past. there is no question right around this particular market, it has been a year since we face this pandemic. it is not that we created it, it is a matter of how it has been managed. we can either point fingers or find a pathway to address it. i believe the president of the united states in conjunction

with the house and senate as a partnership is attempting to address this pandemic. lisa: let's talk about the future and the current stimulus plan. when you discuss what to approve, how big to go, how much are people talking about the political will to follow it up with an infrastructure spending bill as joe biden will be talking about today in washington, d.c.? >> you go by the chairman of the federal reserve who said a long time ago that we need to go big and we need to go bold. right now is a very appropriate time. you look at the aspect of borrowing. those tools are available. i believe we have to use all the tools available and i believe people are ready for this type of change. we have to crush the virus first and foremost. make the necessary strategic investments. we open our schools, reinvest an

infringe structure, -- in our infrastructure. it is not easy, but we can do it. lisa: you believe that and a lot of people do believe that, but even among the democrats, there is some disagreement about how big to go and how much to follow this up with. the idea that republicans are getting more concerned with the debt pile. how concerned are you that if you pass a big and bold stimulus package right now, it will withdraw any political support for getting the infrastructure done that you say is crucial? >> i think it is important to understand that in the house, we just had a hearing in the ways and means committee. the chairman of the committee is very cognizant in terms of where we are. we cannot afford not to do this. we have to take that action.

i believe that we are the majority in the senate and with the house working together, i think you will see a new, different day. tom: tell us the forward motion of the congressional black caucus. it has been a four-year challenge, without question. tell us about the new effort by a congressional black caucus in congress. >> joyce beatty from ohio is the new chairperson. i share with you her leadership taking place of karen bass in california, that she will not miss a step. we have new blood, new energy who are ready to take this challenge on. this by the way a lot of people said, i believe the

congressional black caucus is ready for this challenge. jonathan: we would love to have you back soon. don't be a stranger. from new york city this morning, good morning. something to talk about just a little bit more. the week that we had the post pandemic high, also the week that we had an intraday record high in the equity market. higher yields. that has been the debate on the south side through the week. tom: 3, 2, 1, i get the ambiguity. look at the 30 year bond. are we going to get a 2% yield by the time the show ends? jonathan: possibly. tom: where does that come from? it is out of control. jonathan: we still have equity markets near or at record highs. even though we have got this move in treasury yields.

we have been traveling north and this equity market has been hanging in there. tom: look at bit talk, 48,000. there is a new effervescent sign of friday we are not talking about. lisa: i need you to weigh in. miami sang potentially, people could potentially pay taxes in bitcoin. jonathan: that would be a huge change. lisa: talking about how they want to adopt it more. jonathan: one of the reasons the bitcoin bulls were so happy, the institutional buy-in. i keep going back to that because the more institutional buy-in you get, the harder it is to unravel those. the more companies get involved in this just to diversify some of those cash holdings, reserves. it gets more difficult for the regulator to step in and do something about it in the way the bears suggested it would happen over the last couple of years.

lisa: is that your price target? tom: my entry point is 80,000, not there yet. jonathan: might be in a few weeks. from new york city this morning, good morning. tom: the floor guy just through a

jonathan: from new york city this morning, let's talk about price targets. socgen, bank of america. wells fargo anywhere between 3800 and 3850. right now, morgan stanley's target at 3900. we pulled back just a little bit from all-time highs. tom and i talked about this over the last week. these price targets look really bullish three months ago. you talk to the south side, the strategist i have got those calls and they are still standing by them. as i have said repeatedly, it is a year and forecast by definition that can't be wrong yet. let's talk about levels. i was paying them some respect.

let's get to the bond market and talk about levels in the bond market. 119.81 is your post pandemic high. i think it is worth talking about. we have had in the intraday record high and new post pandemic high on treasury yields as well. the real debate amongst the equity strategist through the week is whether high yields are good or bad for stocks and whether we see high treasury yields and also maintain loose financial conditions. that is what will be key for the fed. tom: and it is a conversation we are having with our guests here. some of them are recalibrating to say and s&p 500, give valley is out at 4400. all of that founded on the american economy.

diane march is wonderful about calibri the pulse of that equation. right now, the mystery to me is a persistent 6%, 5% gdp and we get out into q1, maybe into q2 and then, there is a mystery. what is her clarity on q3 and q4 of this year? >> certainly, the hope is that we see this unleashed pent-up demand list as even higher and get to the end of the year. ours is a little more muted because the multipliers we think are more muted in services coming back than they are in goods coming back. this is a unique recession, but how do you times -- how many times do you eat out in a day or haircuts to make up for the what you lost? we could easily see the strongest year since 1984. that is important as we go into 2022.

what is also important is how do we manage the virus? we are talking about managing it so that it is not a significant part of our everyday life. that process of going from eradicating herd immunity to flipping a switch to managing the virus is a very different economic equation as well in terms of how fast we can ramp up, all showing out at big theaters and in crowds congregating in the way many of us would like to. tom: we spoke with heidi out of your university of michigan the other day. she is expert on the dearth of jobs. that jobs gap we had. do we close that job cap? >> that is a great question. one of the things we are worried about is the dichotomy between high wage jobs have come back and in some sectors, they are reporting labor market shortages.

anyone doing anything with their house cannot find a skilled carpenter. beyond that, in the low wages sector, you have jobs being replaced by automation and education. even thinking about things like the balaton and doing fitness and home, that allows one person to personally train a lot of people, reduces the cost of some of these inflation fears that are overstated and reduces some jobs that might be coming back otherwise. cashiers, anything that can be automated in terms of getting out of a store and not having the extra touch, we manage the virus and not just contain it. all of those mean it will be even harder for some of these workers who have been displaced to come back. that is before we get to the lost educational component of we have now got many low-wage households suffering not only masks, but low-wage households suffering dropouts, not getting

access to online education. it really is exacerbating inequalities and diminishing the labor pool going forward. jonathan: let's pick up on that word. let's talk about some of the cyclical slack. this fed has been conditioned to understand they need to run this a whole lot longer to really reduce and eradicate any cyclical slack that is left. they are applying that conditioning to this cycle. i wonder how difficult this is going to be to calibrate because of the federal reserve is committed to doing that, as a market participant, i am committed to reallocating to risk assets as well. how do you close that gap? >> monetary policy is such a crude tool on this. i think fiscal policy is so much better at removing the hurdles to inequality. we are going to need summer school to make up for some of this inequality, re-engages students that have dropped out of college twice the pace in

households earning less than 75,000 a year. all that requires more fiscal policy than monetary policy. you alluded to it, low rates of for a long time if you overshoot on what you thought was full unemployment and powell has really embraced this idea to run the economy hot to bring in more of those workers that are now most damaged and narrow the gap between black unemployment rate and why unemployment rate looking at different employment to population ratios, trying to think of this much more nuanced in terms of what is full employment. that is a really crude tool and we also know the new york fed has done a study that running the economy hot with low rates also exacerbates inequality and wealth. that is something we have to deal with as well. that is the hard part, getting the economy hot is still an unknown. all of the people worried about inflation, we could see a flare of inflation. daca -- have the kind of wage

push inflation we saw in the 1970's overlaid with the opec inflation we saw, back then, research is suggested 80% of wages in the u.s. economy were tied to a cost-of-living increase. that was well and beyond any union contracts. my dad would come home with his extra cola increase as a gm executive and be excited he got that extra bonus in addition to his raises he was getting. that is not the world we live in today and i think the context of inflation is very different than it once was. lisa: which brings in the $15 minimum wage debate, whether or not to include that in the stimulus plan. a lot of people saying to take it out, it is a hot potato. the group that took a look at this found it would lead to fewer jobs but would reduce the amount of poverty in the economy. what is your view? do you think it would help

generate the kind of income growth boosted to inflation, boost to economic prosperity or what harm it? lisa: this is a much more nuanced debate. i do think the evidence on minimum wage has really shifted a lot of economists views on it. it did not destroy as many jobs over the period of time. it is almost a one to one. the more nuanced view that that i think is really important is places where you are trying to bring up small companies back online, small business back online, while a large chain is already moving to $15 an hour, they are effectively accelerating the consolidation and diminishing the diamond is above the u.s. economy and making it very hard for these smaller businesses, retailers to compete. although i am brace them in my wage and think that it can lift the fortunes of many and it is a

phase in process. i think we need to think of it as much more nuanced of how do we help those companies that have a harder time coming back online after being hammered by the pandemic? in the context of where we are at, i do think it is important to talk about a minimum wage, but i also think you need to talk about what our small business going to need to do to be able to embrace that minimum wage in a way that is most productive for the u.s. economy? that is much harder. we know large chains past a law. it is a step function. not something we can't absorb, but i think we need to think about how do smaller companies that want to come back online deal with this in the areas where the minimum wage is the lowest. lisa: given how nuanced a this is an how disproportionately the big companies and small companies have been affected by the current economic backdrop,

what are you proposing? do you see a place for universal income? what is the transmission mechanism to even out the playing field? >> i think one of the transition mechanisms we have already talked about, increase cashier jobs are not going to be as necessary. a lot of ordering is going to be done before you even show up at the restaurant. there is going to be reduced need for waitstaff in different ways and they are going to provide different kinds of roles than they did pre-pandemic. there is that issue out there and i think one of the things we still need to get to and it gets to investment in infrastructure is restorative policies. everything from year-round schooling to catch up on what we lost. retraining programs, training programs to allow people to move up in wage group. what we have seen in the past as middleweight honors -- earners have lost their job and taken a low-wage job. now, we are talking about reducing the number of low-wage jobs out there.

that is something i think we have to offset with fiscal policy that includes training and more investment in community colleges. all those kinds of things that allows people to make this transition to a higher wage and more productive wage in a world that is going to be more technologically savvy. the pandemic has been an accelerant in our braid of technology. we have learned to use things that were in existence -- my husband now knows how to use the universal remote. jonathan: there we go. lisa: that is a really big step. >> it has accelerated the shift, but also, it accelerated -- we now have gig workers the -- delivering stuff to us. that is a very different job that has even less security. i think we really need to be thinking holistically and it is going to require fiscal policy as well. jonathan: quite simply, one of the best. thanks for being with us.

tom: i got the fourth they -- 45 things lined up. jonathan: bond market right now, yields high. coming up, a conversation about the bond market. from new york city this morning, a very good morning to you all. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: house democrats spent three days trying to show why donald trump should be convicted over the storming of the u.s. capitol. now, it is time for his lawyers to make his case. they say they will need only four hours or less. one of the former president's lawyers dismissed the democrats video and accuse them for using it for entertainment value. u.s. hospitalizations for the coronavirus have plunged about 16% so far this month and are not the lowest level since mid-november. arizona, utah, new mexico and

ohio led the decline. the u.s. has wrapped up deals for 200 additional vaccine doses from pfizer and moderna. president biden says that will give the government enough vaccine supply to inoculate all americans. the delivery date has been moved up to the end of july. former japanese prime minister yoshi amari has resigned. he added sexist remarks that led to criticism from the international olympic committee and sponsors such as toyota. global news 24 hours a day on air on bloombergquint take -- quicktake. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> will

>> netflix, disney, amazon, the

choice of the consumer is going to be up for grabs. probably apple if they can get content. the others are going to be struggling and disney is going to be laughing all the way to the bank because they have such a tremendous amount of content. tom: one of my favorite people in media, porter bibb with a wonderful perspective on what we see in media. we follow him ever stronger with michael nathanson, senior research analyst on what we have learned through the pandemic. you have been what i'm going to call constructive on disney, but you were not a bowl. what surprised you about disney plus? what was the lessons learned from was -- from disney plus? michael: the lessons learned have been the adoption has been much stronger in the first year than we ever imagined. i remember fighting with clients about how big it could be.

it has literally been double or triple what we thought it was two years ago. it could have been the pandemic, but also great execution on disney. i give the company a ton of credit because they took this challenge on head on. they have executed so well against it. lisa: there is a question here on whether there is a broader lesson that perhaps there is more room to grow and more subscription streams that consumers are willing to have if we see the same kind of growth that netflix that we now see a disney plus and then some. is there some broader take away the future of streaming and the potential profitability there that is making you reassess your calls? michael: we are trying to figure out how much of the adoption in the past year has been due to the pandemic. the question is, when we start opening up back to normal, will there be a bit of a fade on

streaming adoption? with that said, i think what we are seeing, and this is the question being asked, you are seeing court cutting meaning problematic. consumers are taking the surplus and spending it on streaming services. that is going to continue for a long time. it has been the adoption overseas of streaming. historically, it is not a huge market for television outside the u.s. this has changed things and there is more adoption overseas than we ever thought. lisa: there is a lot to unpack. i want to talk about this idea of how much this is due to the pandemic and how much this has longer-lasting trend implications. what are the streaming service is replacing if not for the cable cord that would have been there pandemic or not? michael: if we look at total

consumer spending on entertainment, not going to theaters is a major cost savings. not buying packaged media, what is left of it. maybe not going to entertainment like sports or theme parks. if you look at consumer spending, the shutdown of options has created a huge surplus. tom: we did not have you on because we want to talk about south side, taylor riggs is buried in a phd course in m&a. she said get michael on so i can get an a. right now, her exercise is who apple should buy. can apple by netflix? why would apple want to by netflix? michael: netflix has already achieved the dream. apple should buy hbo and warner brothers out of at&t because that dream is not realize.

you basically need apple's balance sheet, apples distribution globally. you can take an asset like hbo max and warner bros. and turbocharge it. rather than pay netflix the upside, you can create it yourself. tom: can they do it? this is critical. close really, could apple deal with the hollywood of warner hbo. michael: great question. tom: not mine, taylor riggs. michael: taylor, so far, two of the three winners in streaming have belted themselves. there has been no hollywood acquisition built. the issue that apple faces is that they are lagging. they need to do something to get

in the game and i think they don't have the time to build. lisa: she writes in to say thank you very much for that advice. there is a question with the cash piles and some of the big tech balance sheets and the idea they all want to get into entertainment, especially the apples of the world. at what point does m&a raise concerns from an antitrust standpoint and washington, d.c. given the current administration? michael: that is a good question. i think if apple buys a video company or of animal -- it would be to drive consumer surplus by buying better products. that does not worry me as much as google buying twitter, which won't happen or facebook buying

-- i think they need to stay out of their lanes to do m&a at this point. tom: taylor riggs sends her love in as well. some real smart discussion there on what we are all witnessing at home on the various screens. your thoughts on an extraordinary week. lisa: we are hitting the highs we have seen since the pandemic. just touching up against them although it has come down 1.8%. not really a lot of news to spur that. we are not seeing a commensurate move in some of the breakeven rates. i don't really know if there is a big takeaway, but it shows the consensus in markets that yields will bleed higher and a controlled fashion and it will be positive for equities because it indicates growth. tom: again, this is the ambiguity out there. real interesting nuances about

at what point do yields begin to hurt or not. in my head, we are miles from there. lisa: i think there is something lost in this and a lot of people say it is the velocity of the increase. if it feels uncontrolled or feels like it is runaway increase in yields, that will lead to a stymieing of some of the asset purchases in risk year categories. it also is what's behind it. is it because suddenly there is a tightening from central banks? there has to be a why to determine how it affects. tom: it has been a great week. let me do a data check. kailey leinz emails and says you have to do dollar pesos. 20 point 08, mexican peso right now.

your own not through at 120. futures are -10. dow futures at -41. the vix does nothing. it is boring like me. richard trumka with david westin at noon. lisa: you are never boring.

manus: good morning. a bit of a break out in the treasury market. a lot of cash looking for a home. >> too much cash and none of collateral. when you look at it. >> that's a lot of money looking to find some yields. >> it means a bear market in u.s. treasuries. >> there will be additional downward pressure at the front end of the curve. >> they are sitting on the short end, probably until 2023. >> it's very easy monetary policy. >> there is a lot of cash and the banking system. >> there might be