>> cyclical elements will almost certainly show uptick. >> between now and 2022, we could see the strongest gdp growth in over 50 years. >> flooding the economy with monetary and fiscal stimulus. >> the hope is that we see this unleashed pent-up demand to us even higher. >> the april timeframe is when we will finally get that pullback people are looking for. >> this is bloomberg surveillance. with tom keene, and lisa

abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. a simulcast on bloomberg television, bloomberg radio. an extraordinary market day. we can talk about futures on sterling, but in the yield business, it is yield up, price down. we are beginning to see some price effects. jonathan: it was becoming increasingly difficult to break 1.20 on the 10-year, and then we broke 1.25. yields are higher. financial conditions have stayed loose, and they stay loose this morning. tom: there can never be a bear market in the bond business. apple, 15 days ago, down 4%. that is one of the effects. jonathan: you are much better at bond math than me, but pull up

the numbers in austria. that is brutal. tom: 100 years out in austria. price is down 25%, but who cares about that? lisa: my kids are calling me saying, i thought this was supposed be fixed income. to your point earlier about what that means for longer-term bonds and how volatile they can be in terms of total returns. bonds in the u.s. maturing in 15 or more years have lost more than 6% so far this year, poised to the worst start to the year since 2009. when people see that in their portfolios, do they rotate out of those instruments? tom: rotating with a vengeance into the equity markets. snp, 4000. it is a reflation. jonathan: 3800 was the call from

bank of america. 3850 was the call from wells fargo. 3950 is where we are right now. still early in the year in the middle of february. all of these strategists sounded bullish at the time, and they are sticking to their view, that is where we should finish for the end of the year. you do see some capitulation in the last few weeks. tom: i do want to suggest the anomaly of the vix, an important reading piece over the president's holiday. supposed to be 19 or 18, or dare i say 15, but this will just not come in. at 21.02, what does that signal? jonathan: this is not just about volatility but demand for upside protection, bullish calls as well. a morning like this, you can get

the vix higher, equity markets charging higher as well. tom: we have had a wonderful set of gifts today. alan ruskin at deutsche bank joining us. thierry wizman was good with macquarie. right now the simple idea of staying in the market, james bevan joins us from ccla in london. the idea of placing capital and monitoring management. how easy is it right now to place new capital for long-term investment? james: i think it's relatively straightforward. i am much more bullish than the strategists and forecasters that you have spoken to. i'm anticipating the s&p 500 can achieve 4300 points in the current year, 4800 by the end of next year. i get to these numbers because i believe the forward earning s&p

500 by the end of the year will be at $195, over 200 by the end of 2022. i expect to have to pay 22.5 times earnings to reach my 4300 target. i think that is sustainable because i think we will have this rare cocktail of fiscal policies that remain supportive of economic growth and central bankers ke to keep -- keen to keep liquidity going. really yields are way too low. nominal yields are being pressed. i liken it to 1942, 1951, when the federal reserve kept a lid on bond yields. it was fine. jonathan: this is really

important -- tom: this is really important. that was the last time tottenham won. jonathan: 4300 on the s&p 500. where does leadership come from? you will not just be buying the index. where does the leadership come from that gets us to 4300? james: i'm looking at solid earnings growth. we should have a significant melt up rather than a steady progression. i would look at the progress of the season last march after the collapse of capital management in 1998, and the run-up in march of 2000. on that basis, we are only a third of the way through a major melt up. my concern is if we get a significant melt up over the summer, the fourth quarter will be testing.

i plan to lack a fast rising market based on earnings growth. i believe that is speaking to the best names in technology, alphabet, amazon, health companies like medtronic, stryker, and thinking about the global brand companies, which are too cheap. jonathan: some breaking news, forgive me. southwest grid ordering rolling blackouts for a second consecutive day. the headline just crossing the bloomberg. another day of rollouts. tom: this is a power pool of moving the electricity out. usually, it is a hugely air conditioning, cooling grid, but this is something new for them to see this cold. jonathan: the automatic

investing around this, there will because for infrastructure investment in ways that there were not in previous decades. places where you did not have that discussion, texas. a discussion about increasing dependency on renewables. how do you approach that? james: i absolutely believe the biden agenda will like the blue touch paper on more infrastructure spending and renewables, recommitment to the paris agreement. we will be expecting a move from suggestions as to what strategies will be helpful to target individual countries. that will accelerate spend on renewable energy but also energy efficiency. these are great areas for long-term investors to make some returns. lisa: we have seen a lot of money flood into these areas. all of this cash and the fact

that we are talking about these targets raises the question, zero rate policies have rendered boom bust models absolutely obsolete. what do you look for as a warning sign that it is time to rethink the thesis? james: the single biggest factor is inflation. inflation will ultimately drive the shift in monetary and fiscal policy. i look at the u.s. report last week, and interestingly, plenty of supply chain inflation, but yet to show up at the cpi level. i would anticipate that mr. biden and mr. powell will be worrisome about accelerating inflation. it affects those at the bottom of the wealth scale more. certainly, rising inflation

profile showing up in bond yields. in the u.k., where we could see yields get back up to 3%, that would be a 30% loss. we are already seeing yields in the states. i think we will see a correction but not a bear market, if we started to see 10-year yield's got 2%. jonathan: james, great to catch up. always great to talk. james bevan of ccla. looking bullish for years and. when i looked at it last in the middle of december, this is where we were at. bank of america, 3800. barclays, 4000. goldman, 4300. we got bullish very quickly. a huge move up of the back end of october. tom: do you extrapolate out

single-digit, and what is the band you put around it? jonathan: i am laughing, but if you would have asked me that question at the end of last year, i would have said don't extrapolate the last few months for the rest of the year. but the small cap moves continue. tom: it is also the banks as well. it is not just the leadership or small caps. things that were dogs of dogs have rallied. lisa: you have a federal reserve that will tamp things down for the foreseeable future, says the market and federal reserve. and this is the tension. well inflation written that thesis? jonathan: the ultimate sell signal will be when lisa capitulates. are we there yet? lisa: capitulating to what,

contrary renews him? not being gloomy? there is a difference between being bullish and trying to look around corners at what could possibly counter the narrative. jonathan: coming up, the texas railroad commissioner. tom: i am staying out of this. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ karina: energy crisis has crippled the texas power system, leaving 5 million people across the u.s. in the dark. homes and businesses from the dakotas to the southwest have lost power in the midst of an unprecedented deep-freeze. managers cannot say when the lockouts will and payment it is just the latest in a chain of extreme weather that has brought down power grids and upended global energy markets. house speaker nancy pelosi wants to keep up the pressure over the attack on the capital now that

donald trump's impeachment trial is over. she says congress must create a september 11 type of commission to investigate the assault. a number of lawmakers support the investigation. chancellor angela merkel wants to make a deal with the u.s. over that controversial russian pipeline that will bring natural gas to germany. it's been a particular source of transatlantic friction. construction was halted after the u.s. imposed sanctions. merkel's coalition is working on a plan that would work to soften russia's influence over europe's energy market. yet another record for bitcoin. it rose again today going over 50,000 for the first time. bitcoin has risen fivefold over the past year. still, there are mornings that investors could be left with big losses since cryptocurrencies remain highly speculative. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than

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>> every part of the state will be getting either snow or ice.

>> i want to encourage people to stay home, to stay off the roads. >> obviously, it is generating demand almost what we see in the summer. extraordinary demands for texas. >> 1.9 million homes out of the 2 million homes served by centerpoint are out due to state ercot outages. jonathan: leaders in texas urging its millions of residents to stay home and stay safe as the winter storm leaves many in blackouts across the state. good morning to you. live on bloomberg tv and radio, this is bloomberg surveillance. let's touch on the price action before we turn to an important conversation. equity yields are higher. we had a look at 1.26 earlier in the session on 10's. 1.34 is where we are right now.

3950 on the s&p 500. tom: futures up 18. there is a crisis from winnipeg in the normal winter of canada on down through the dakotas and into texas. we have seen the snow at the alamo. it is a freeze, in many cases, a blizzard with hardship. we tried to find the guy that is qualified, and that is the railroad commissioner of texas, jim wright. but not for the reasons that you think. he grew up west of corpus christi, some that knows about the animals of texas through bull riding, rodeos. he has a visceral knowledge of what people are putting up with. we want to talk about the electric grid, the energy markets, but i have to ask you, you are living it. tell us what the ranchers are doing across the southern

midwest. jim: i can tell you from being a rancher myself, we have been out repairing pipes to make sure that we have water and energy to our livestock, water to our homes. tom: is there a risk here or is it with modern technology, going to be different from 1889? jim: i don't see it being much different right now from those times. pipes seem to break whenever it gets cold. we still have to fix those. lisa: given the fact that extreme temperatures may become more regularly occurring, going forward, what do you expect to be necessary to fortify the electricity grid as we know it? jim: i think we are going to have to take a stronger look at who is allowed priority on our grid system. right now we are saying renewable energy has that priority, which is discouraging

our reliable energy source which is more natural gas, fossil fuel related, from coming in and building the plants needed to pick up this power demand in times like these. lisa: i want to clarify. you are saying the problem lies with the wind turbines, renewable energies, and not the pipelines freezing and other issues? is that what you are saying? jim: in a certain way. i think, as we have said in texas, renewable energy has priority on our grid. we have discouraged people coming into build power plants that run off of natural gas, which is a more reliable source than the wind and sun. i think what we are experiencing today is the fact that we don't have enough plans to keep up with our demand in times like these. tom: what does the railroad

commission in texas need to do to dovetail a boom economy and the capitalism of texas with the constraints, the limits you face ecologically? jim: i think one of those big things is more along the lines of educating people on the benefits of fossil fuel, the benefits of our renewable energy. both have places here in texas. we need to make sure we are smart enough to make those coexist alongside each other but while still keeping a focus on improving the environment. when i look at the environment, i look at it in two ways. it is not only mankind's impact on planet earth, but also the impact that we are accumulating trying to continue to protect what mankind's impact we seem to think we have on earth. we have had some large issues in texas with flaring.

i think it's important that we talk about developing more of a market for our natural gas so that continues to be a reliable source and does not create any impact as far as emissions are concerned. tom: you have a crisis right now with the weather. a stunning victory a year ago within this important position for the state of texas. how did you pull that off? how did a rancher from west of corpus christi pull off the victory that you did, and how can you provide that lesson as leadership to move texas forward? jim: it shows people in texas are looking at people that are in office today that our leaders with more of a business mine. i have been in business all of my life with my own companies, working in the oil and gas

industry, energy industry. the people out there seem to dominate what we have here in texas, especially the ruble areas. they know what it means to our economy. that is the key to success. people that know boots on the ground and getting issues resolved. jonathan: great to have you on, jim wright. the texas railroad commissioner. the conversation will be ongoing, the increased dependency on renewable fuels and whether that introduces fragility into the grades, but we should rely on the numbers. wind only comprises 25% of the states energy mix this time of year. what we are seeing take place, the outages overnight, were from natural gas,coal, and nuclear. two thirds of power generation in this winter season, so it is

important to recognize that and stick to the data. this conversation will be building up in a political way. tom: what is so important, lisa, you were in that boom dakota economy years ago. everybody wants that growth that mr. wright sees in texas, but how do you do it with some sort of new energy template? that is one of the great debates of the biden era. lisa: we didn't touch on this, but a more piecemeal approach to the grid, the idea that you are not paying electricity companies to have capacity in search times. that is a feature of texas that they do not do, unlike the northeast, which is why there is less continuity here. those pipes that have oil going through them have frozen over. jonathan: more to come on this deepening energy crisis. coming up, lewis alexander of nomura.

as bond yields break out and the equity market does not break down, we are melting up once again. advancing half a percent with yields almost at 1.26 on the 10 year. this is bloomberg. ♪ want to save hundreds on your wireless bill? with xfinity mobile you can. how about saving hundreds on the new samsung galaxy s21 ultra 5g? you can do that too. all on the most reliable network. sure thing! and with fast nationwide 5g included at no extra cost. we've got you covered. so join the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction. and get a new samsung galaxy starting at $17 a month. learn more at xfinitymobile.com or visit your local xfinity store today.

jonathan: from new york city our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." remember the headlines in early november about the efficacy rates of the vaccine? up 20% since the back end of october. up another .5% on the s&p 500. 3950 is the rent forecast at deutsche bank. by definition of forecast cannot be wrong. it is a forecast. it gives you an idea of how bullish things have gotten. equities all-time highs. yields post pandemic highs. you get the picture. stocks could move higher. credit suisse has written about that. they think you can continue to get that move. the 10-year gilts through 1.20

-- the 10 year yield through 1.25. 30 year yield north of 2%. if yields are driven higher by inflation expectations, what does that mean for the dollar? at the moment weaker. euro-dollar back to 1.21. just about positive on the session. dollar weakness so far. ebbs away in the last hour. tom: well said. that is just where i was going to go with dxy 90.34, fractionally weaker. euro stronger against yen as well. let's get right to it. lewis alexander joins us with number of to recalibrate -- with numera. how does central bank change their communication when their

perceived facts change? what we expect from the powell fed? lewis: when they have greater confidence about the outlook they will have an active discussion about tapering in the foreseeable future and ultimately they will be raising rates. i think powell has been clear since last fomc meeting they think it is too early to have the conversation. we will get the minutes of the january meeting this week. we will have a bunch of additional fed speak. i do not think we will learn much because they think it is too early to make that change. tom: the one statistic we look at as i am sure you do is the high-frequency statistic of claims. where do claims at 800,000 have to migrate back to what we knew of 220,000? we need to get all of the way back? is that a legitimate gauge of

potential fed action? lewis: claims are an important indicator that i do not think the market getting back to pre-covid levels is an important way to think about it. one of the things that has been remarkable as you've had very bad outcomes in labor markets, but you also had substantial growth higher. you have had an incredible level of churn in the economy. there've been areas like tech in the dubious to be -- in the distribution sector that have been growing jobs dramatically. that high level of claims in an environment where employment is like is an indication -- i suspect you will continue to see employment increase. claims will trend lower but i do not think you should think until we get claims back down to 250,000 level, that that is normal.

you will see a heightened level of turnover in this market. jonathan: how much has changed at the fed in the last couple of years? we had a tongue-in-cheek conversation about how much chairman powell has changed and become a social warrior in the minds of some people on this program. how do you frame that change? lewis: it is remarkable when you think about what the fed was worried about in the 1980's in terms of trying not to do too much to support labor markets and focusing only on inflation. they have essentially come back to where the policy debate was in the 1960's. the fact that you of jay powell referencing a 1946 act that embraced full employment is pretty remarkable. you have brain or talking about -- you have lael brainard talking about the definition of

full employment is everybody who wants a job has a job. that is remarkable. it is consistent with an economy that remains low, that that will create an unwanted inflation problem, i do not think the evidence is there. it is reasonable for the fed to have moved in that direction. lisa: there is a question of what they can actually do. they have kept monetary conditions easy. anyone who wants to borrow seemingly can for a legitimate rate based on what we are seeing with junk bond issuance. will this help the 10 million people who are out of work now versus february 2020 get back to work or will they not necessarily have jobs because of the rapid transformation due to the technological advancement and ongoing trends we have seen since the pandemic. lewis: the fed is doing what it can. the fed cannot give people drops. the tools the fed has our macro

in general where as the problems we have are much more narrow. fed officials have focused on fiscal policy. that is the right way to think about it. what the fed can do is not get in the way of that recovery and that is what they intend on doing. lisa: is the fed giving in out to congress to not take action, to not pass certain plans because people look at the stock market and say everything is fine? at what point does the fed effort end up hampering the recovery and a longer-term trajectory? lewis: i do not think the fed can think of this as three-dimensional chess vis-a-vis congress. they have certain tools, they have been given mandates, they need to exercise those. they have to leave it to others to make those political decisions about how to use tools for policy they do not control. it would be a mistake for the fed to try to think through and that kind of complicated way.

tom: what is the exogenous shock you worry about. within the pantheon of greater macro economics, what is the sergeant's shop you are considering? -- deep exogenous shock -- the exogenous shock you are considering? lewis: you talked earlier about the effectiveness of vaccines. if that were to be called into questions, that is crucial. i think you worry about geopolitics. the world is a complicated place . the relationships with china are complicated. that aspect of the world continues to be a difficult one. i'm not particular worried about upside risk on inflation. the market is so focused on that

that is not a thing i am worried about. lisa: what about the downside risk to inflation? lewis: i think it is still there , particularly if we did not get the strong recovery we are all expecting. i have a robust for -- i have a robust forecast the next year, but if i am wrong there are downside risk to inflation. the remarkable all think about the last two cycles has been inflation did not fall that much over the last year and they did not fall much in the global financial crisis. while one can be worried about that, one can be worried too much. inflation is the center of what i worry about at this point. jonathan: thank you for being with us. lewis alexander of nomura. sometimes you have to deliver upsetting news. marriott international announcing the ceo has unexpectedly passed away.

this is mr. sorensen. anyone familiar with his life, especially over last couple of years, diagnosed with pancreatic cancer in 2019, and more recently stepping back from the work schedule so he can undergo more demanding treatment. we have to announce this morning he passed away on february 15. tom: he was fragile a year ago when we saw him at davos and it was shocking for me and john to get through the interview. what i remember about this guy's there was a genuine feel for employees. he was visceral about the labor management relationship as he brought marriott into the modern age. lisa: he was the first chief executive officer not to have marriott in his name, not to be part of the family. he took the company through a difficult time.

now marriott has to have a new leader through a time of incredible change given the backdrop we've been seeing with respect to travel and vacations. jonathan: a great man. very kind. it did not matter how much you pushed him, he would always brush away the questions with a smile and afterwards he would shake your hand. when he pushed some ceos, they do not want to play that game -- when you push some ceos, they do not want to play the game. tom: he would ask where we are staying in zurich and we would say motel 6, of course. [laughter] jonathan: great man. marriott international ceo died february 15. coming up, j.p. morgan chase head of u.s. equity strategy. looking forward to that conversation later this morning. i want to touch on the price action. your equity market all-time highs in the s&p 500.

yields 31 26 this morning. 1.2568. a little bit of dollar weakness. euro-dollar negative. the theme has been yields going higher, financial conditions staying loose and that is something to keep an eye on in the weeks and months took on -- the weeks and months to come. lisa: it has been totally steady because of the extra yield that continues to shrink, the extra cushion of yield, at what point does that flip? jonathan: much more through the week. i am jonathan ferro. i'll be stepping away to pappy down to the opening bell on bloomberg television -- to count you down to the opening bell on bloomberg television. the story is a breakout in treasury yields. as tom pointed out, it's much bigger. it has been a monster move higher since october.

20% plus gains on the s&p 500 and the last three and a half months. unreal. on bloomberg radio, on bloomberg tv, this is bloomberg surveillance. karina: with the first word news, i'm karina mitchell. the energy crisis crippling the texas power system keep spreading. almost 5 million people have been plunged into darkness. authorities are fighting to avoid a total collapse of the grid. businesses from north dakota to texas are losing power in the middle of an unprecedented deep-freeze. blackouts will continue throughout the day. on capitol hill, democrats are turning their attention back to president biden's priorities. they want to push through the $1.9 billion stimulus package and get the last of his cabinet confirmed. the president is unlikely to get anything he wants in the bill. at least as good democratic

senators oppose the $15 federal minimum wage. coronavirus cases and hospitalizations are dropping dramatically across the u.s. that suggests measures to stop transmission are working. almost 12% have received at least one dose of the vaccine. data gathered from mobile phones suggests people are being more cautious. goldman sachs is getting ready to offer its investing knowledge to the masses. according to dow jones goldman will unveil a low-cost digital platform that will rebalance individuals while the portfolios of stocks and bonds and a minimum investment -- another record for bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency rose, going over 50,000. for the first time bitcoin has risen fivefold over the past year.

there are warnings investors could be left with big losses as cryptocurrencies remain highly speculative. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we have been saying that the

outlook for the medium to long-term is positive. commodities are essential for the world's ongoing development and growth. through the decarbonization transition for the energy transition, that will also be minerals or metals. tom: michael henry of bhp on the state of commodities. commodities lifting up and we see that this morning. oil, this is west texas intermediate, the lower priced $59.64. a headline just coming out which is symbolic of the moment. sometimes it does not work out. adidas will begin the divestiture of reebok. that expected but is now official by adidas. they begin the divestiture process of reebok. right now barry ritholtz, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. barry, i just said what if, it

is not the third week of august of 2007, but somewhere in the vicinity of 2007 i made the idea to get out of the markets. getting back in is so hard. now we see it with an spx up 10% over that broad 13 year period. that is real money. there is up -- there is a cost. how does barry ritholtz do they getting back part? barry: i have the exact opposite view. getting out of the market is the challenge because as we have seen time and again, we craft these wonderful narratives about how things are frothy in the market has peaked and evaluations are terrible, but that was 1996 and you had another four years of gains. it is much more challenging to

pick a top. to me bottoms are obvious. it is easy. it is when you see capitulation. bottoms are easy to spot, harder to act on. tops are easy to see, and much easier to act on. tom: tell me about catharsis or capitulation, the motion of the top. do you observe it now? barry: we definitely see pockets of froth, whether it is gamestop or bitcoin or tesla, we are stretched valuations. all of those things come with a massive cap yacht. -- a massive caveat. whenever we see comparisons to past historical valuation frameworks, it is never with 0% interest rate, never with massive quantitative easing, never with a multitrillion dollar fiscal stimulus. risk assets have become very

attractive, and risk-free assets are not showing a lot of potential for gains. that trade that there is no alternative trade seems to be having some sort of an impact. i think that is too cute of a definition, but massive fiscal and monetary stimulus further, longer, and higher than anyone expects. lisa: there's a theory eventually the federal reserve will have to tighten policy in response to inflation. i see you are laughing. markets are not pricing in any sort of tightening cycle even as they price in increased inflation going forward. could there be an exit strategy or does the fed have to keep zero interest rate policies or else risk disrupting the entire market valuation model we currently have? barry: break tightening into two phases. the first phase is

normalization. what is historically a normal interest rate. where should bond yields be, where should the fed funds rate be? you want to call that 2%, 2.5%, that can be effectuated over time, especially of the fed gives lots of notice that lower for longer is now lower for shorter and not so low. the more challenging part is going to be one day, off in the future, theoretically we will see inflation start to rise. i think wall street economists are wildly miss timing that. it is not imminent. there is so much slack in the labor market, even with a rush of pent-up demand there will be transitory inflation. the big question is what happens in 2024, 2026, when you see systemic inflation making its way in. will the fed have the courage of its convictions to go from zero

to normal and then normal to tightening where they are legitimately using rates to restrict inflation? that is still years off. lisa: it is years off but people have long-term portfolios they are to arrange and manage. you talk with them. what do you recommend? they stay away from 60/40, or do you say that model has worked, stick with it, we do not know anything better? barry: given where yields are you can look more at 70/30. on the high net worth you can look at things like structured notes if you're looking for yield. if you in the right state, municipal bonds can make up some of the yield issues. keep in mind the key purpose of the 60/40, yes yield and coupons are important, but the

volatility dampening, the ballast to offset your tendency to panic and as tom said moved to all cash, the triple levered cash portfolio is not appropriate for people in their 30's and 40's. they have too long of an investment horizon. when a market is down 40% and you are all equity, you are down 40%. a lot of people simply live with that. lisa: are you endorsing tom keene's triple levered cash portfolio? are you saying this is the right thing for him? barry: the optimal portfolio was not the one that generates the highest return. it is the one you can live with, not wake up in the middle of the night feeling like you need to throw up and then liquidating the next day and missing -- think about how many people never got back into the market after 2008, 2009. we were getting emails in 2011, 2013, saying i panicked out in

2008. i need help. i am in tom keene's triple all-cash etf, it is much more challenging to write happen all equity portfolio than having a 70/30 or and 80/20 or something that means when you see the s&p down 40%, you're not down 40%. tom: have to leave it there. barry, thank you so much. we'll consider that this week. barry ritholtz of bloomberg opinion. a seismic shift day. this is not a normal beginning of the week. lisa: know because you're getting record highs but also raising of get move in benchmark yields, significant move in inflation, and frankly the everything rally hitting commodities. there are different drivers of everything, but it is leading to a belief the reflation trade can lead to a happy ending where you end up with a soft landing everything moves on after the pandemic.

tom: thanks to rob carol for his report on the cold across the midwest states. ken wallace will be on at the 10:00 hour this morning. stay with us on radio and television through the day. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. we are up .33%. bond yields breaking down, equities all-time highs. >> the bigger issue is what the market does. >> the 10 year treasury is rising. >> it comes down to what the pace of the move is. >> the yield is rising quickly. >> this reflation trade is historic. >> we are definitely positive on equities relative to bond market s. >> the bond yields rising is positive for the equity market. >> we do not know how to appropriately value things. >> a lot of liquidity sloshing around. >>