haidi: a very good morning. we are counting down to asia's major market open. shery: welcome to "daybreak asia ." our top stories, oil hits its highest in the year as u.s. output plunges a record 40% amid a bitter winter blast. we are joined by nasdaq senior energy director this hour. we have big aussie earnings to

dissect, including crown resorts and covid vaccine producer csl. investors looking ahead to china's return from the new year break. and the gamestop trading frenzy set for u.s. congressional scrutiny. the reddit ceo will testify that drove the reta revolt. haidi: we are getting some breaking news. the iron ore miner in us trillion reporting numbers. income coming in at just over $4 billion. also talking about a $3 billion investment in iron bridge output in the second half of 2022. of course earlier on this week, we had executives resign following a review of the iron bridge project operations. interim dividends being declared at $1.47 on top of net income of $4.08 billion.

also saying they are saying bridge out put in the second half of 2020,. -- 2022, commencing during that time. we have seen a steady rise of iron ore in 2021. all that has added to upgraded outlooks to the global economy and saying resilient demand remains set to continue to look elevated until chinese demand softens or brazilian supply picks up. four year iron ore shipment being pegged at $182 mi -- at 182 million tons. let's take a look at markets at the sydney open. sophie: we are seeing a slight risk on tone, up .1%.

while we're seeing the aussie 10 yield moving back below 137. earnings and focus. keeping an eye on reaction to updates. rising nearly 4% after it saw a boost to cash profits. csl on the up on its first-half profits that we saw a registered in part by a model in china. some reaction there. a lot more coming up later i am sure. when it comes to stocks to watch in japan, keeping an eye on softbank on a news report it is looking to match a 20 gigabyte data plan. nikkei futures in chicago slightly higher, while the yen is below 106. u.s. evening news, seeing it holding pretty steady after a mixed session we saw on wall street. we saw the nasdaq push lower.

watching tech shares on that today in asia. with chinese markets coming back online on the mainland, going to keep and i on with the pboc fixing for the u.n., as well as liquidity action. offshore yen trading above 643 at of that. a lot of bush momentum but credit suisse has downgraded their view on china saying momentum is now negative versus other asian countries. shery: let's discuss the markets and global bond yields, reflation trade, and bring in frances donald, global head of microstrategy. she joins us on the lawn from montreal. always great having you with us. we saw this price action in the treasury market, really surprising we have really strong economic data. other it is retail, trade, factory output. what did you make of that, given

that at the same time we have the fed downplaying inflation fears. frances: it was fascinating. that was one of the biggest upside surprises i have seen the past 10 years and it should have blown the lid off of yields. under normal circumstances you would see yields grow aggressively? why didn't we? it could be that the fed is successful on tempering expectations of how high they will hike. i will suspect a lot of the reopening and reflation trade is already in the price. what new information did we get? we are going to get reflation t wo to 2.5 lid this year. i think the market may actually be having fully digested reflation trade needing another new macro catalyst for the next leg higher in rates. i do not think it will be

surprises in macrobid appear shery: -- shery: we continue to hear perhaps this could to rail the everything rally we have seen the past few months. frances: this is where my attention is currently focus. real rates at minus one for people are unsustainably low. not under the recovery we are currently seeing. it does not make sense. i suspect we see real rates start to climb. my hope is it is gradual. we need to see either a really aggressive rise in real rates -- might still see some heat, congestion and the equity market if we see real rates moving up to that level but i do not think real rates will be a catalyst. it is really hard to be bearish on equities. even with extended sentiment here.

make it more complicated and right to 20 page papers about it. that is the underlying system at play here. extraordinarily low rates for a long time have to be allocated to equities. that is just the story. haidi: it really does feel like a variation of there is no other alternative in terms of where you put your money other than stocks rayna. it see -- stocks right now. it seems unavoidable. frances: there is no alternative except for alternatives. other places are areas like infrastructure and climate assets. we may not necessarily be huge advocates for crypto. depends on who you are. but the markets are telling you something, that there's a thirst for new types of investments that exist beyond global bonds. we will see gradual increases in rates. bonds are not as attractive as they have been historically.

it does not always mean completely abandon equities, but we should be ready for there's a ton of alternatives. we are going to see more focus on them. haidi: we're in a place where as we get through earnings season, investors seem to be paying less attention to traditional ratios like price to sales, price-to-earnings. it is almost like a price to narrative. how much further does this run for companies driven on narrative alone, particularly as, i can only assume the next earnings season is setting up for disappointment rather than outperformance? frances: ima macro investor and even i have to admit i don't think macro is what is driving this next leg whether it is higher or lawyer -- or lower in equities. even i have to admit this matters. how those come in will frame how we go next. underlying it all is you do have a disintegration what is

happening in the equity market. you will have major pension funds who are stepping in at some point. as much as we see excesses in this market, as much as there are a lot of qualities that look like bubbles, you have to participate and hope you are not the last one out. i agree, earnings will be key to the story. shery: are you seeing a bubble in china as well? we have the mainland markets reopening and we are at really high levels at a time where we continue to get signals from regulators and authorities that perhaps they do not want to risk it too much. frances: the number one focus for me on a macro level is do we see a consistent turnover in the chinese credit impulse. because if we do, it will lead the global macro environment in such a significant way. it might be too early to call that rollover. we saw a couple months of softer data. it looks like it is at a peak. we have to get in early and say this is a major risk to what happens next. we overestimate how strong china

is on the back of a reopening in the western world. we are not going to see that same sort of supply chain bottleneck that drove up prices. we are going to see an unwinding of export volumes. we are already seeing that out of china. if that rolls over, i am not so concerned about the e.m. market itself. i am worried about what it does to the global manufacturing impulse. and maybe u.s. cyclicals. to me, that is the number one focus area. i suspect macro investors like myself will not have a read on that until f we get february and march data. there's too much noise around chinese new year, but that is absolutely a risk to watch. haidi: frances donald, really appreciate your time. one of those reflation drivers is continued talk of a commodity super cycle. we are getting these numbers through from australia, one of the last big mienrs -- miners to report.

income just over $4 billion. also adding more commentary when it comes to the iron bridge a jet which has been controversial. that assessment resulting in three key executives resigning earlier. a 12 week assessment in iron bridge -- the expected the first output to happen any second half. they are continuing to assess iron bridge funding. fortescue seeing shipments between 178 million to 182 million tons. that's continuing the bullish commentary we have had from bhp and some other miners to the strength of iron ore demand from china and that being sustained as we continue to see prices higher for a third straight day. we will be talking for all those results later. let's get you to vonnie quinn

now with the first word headlines. vonnie: facebook has started restricting new sharing on the platform amid government plants divorced social media companies to pay for content. facebook and google oppose the idea but have reached voluntary compensation deals. news corp. says the number of its titles in australia and elsewhere will join the google news showcase. google and facebook had threatened to leave australia if forced to pay. myanmar's military leaders are tightening their grip on power with the civilian figurehead in court unexpectedly and with no lawyer. her legal team said she appeared video earlier than had been expected. she faces at least three years in prison for possessing illegally imported communication devices, and is also charged with breaching virus resections. iran is calling on the u.s. to step up over the 2015 nuclear deal as the deadline approaches on ending international inspection. ayatollah how many says he has

heard many words and promises about rejoining talks but now is the time for action in washington. joe biden has long said he wants to reengage with tehran, but has since warned sanctions can only be lifted if iran ends uranium enrichment. -- of new virus infections. the central bank riddick's an increasingly uncertain -- predicts -- the bot says the government must prepare additional stimulus measures. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. shery: still ahead, the big freeze in texas is becoming a global crisis for the oil market. the nasdaq senior director joins us later. this is bloomberg.

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haidi: metald won, giving -- metals down. the iron ore producer reporting 66% surge in net profit in the first half. paul allen joins us now. it is of no surprise to see it benefit from the massive run-up in the iron ore rally. paul: absolutely. where there's iron ore goes fortescue. fortescue up by more than that in the same period. 4.08 billion, pretty much in line with estimates. the interim dividend also looking very healthy at $1.47.

the only bad news i guess or interesting news was what is going on with iron bridge in western australia. we had three executives is stepping down this week including the chief operating officer over blowouts there. fortescue saying it incurred 1.1 billion on that project as of the end of january. that is a $3 billion investment they expect to see the first output from iron bridge in the second half of 2022. so there will be a 12 week assessment of that project. as for the outlook, for the rest of the year, $3.4 billion, and up to 182 millin tons of iron ore to be shipped. it's been a stellar half for the big miners in australia. yesterday, a blowout result, especially the dividends. as long as the iron ore price keeps holding up, the aussie

minors are going to be doing exceptionally well. shery: turning to other earnings, a big week in australia. crown has not really done too well with regulators and now the earnings do not seem great either. paul: no. although to be fair, i guess nobody was expecting great. the covid pandemic was going to hit them pretty hard anyway. revenue was down 62%. then just misery piled on top of that after the report that was damming. they had been involved in money long during and had been running accounts for organized crime syndicates. that really hammered the share price and saw the departure of the ceo. we have the executive chair delivering these results. she will be paid an extra $1.8 million per year and the top job, but she says she does not intend to stay for long. the search for a new ceo is underway.

but it has been a horrid year for crown. now there is a $2.2 billion casino sitting on the router front -- waterfront which cannot open. western australia is investigating whether it is fit to run a casino. its license in victoria is also under review. crown's entire operations in australia it is really hanging by a thread right now. crown saying it will be working with regulators to restore public and regulatory confidence in its operations. a long way to go but we are seeing the share price up. maybe a sense that people -- that things cannot get any worse. shery: paul allen with sydney with some of those australian results. let's turn to sophie in hong kong. there is a lot to watch when it comes to the australian market. sophie: a lot to watch when it comes to the earnings update. check out wesfarmers, under pressure after a bumper at first half.

interim dividends being announced. wesfarmers cautioning retail sales will slow in march after a strong start to the year. santos under pressure now after they saw annual net loss of $357 million. treasury moved to the upside. jeffrey and j.p. morgan. nrw holdings, construction services player, falling the most on the asx 200 on the back of its results. i want to highlight star entertainment, gaining ground even after it scrapped a dividends as we saw a slump in profit and revenue. haidi: don't miss our big interviews ahead. we are going to be hearing from the ceo of fortescue, and the head of south 32. we are also going to be hearing

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shery: a look back at the gamestop frenzy. the surge in shares of gamestop and others usually enough companies have -- the robinhood ceo vlad tenev

denies curbs on buying stocks on their platform. we are also hearing from the reddit ceo saying activity was within normal parameters. is that the underlying narrative we are going to hear from all these witnesses in the hearing? >> yeah. there are certainly a diverse array of people that will be at the hearing, including robinhood's own ceo. his testimony is already online. he's talking about how the settlement made it difficult in this extreme volatility. volatility that we rarely ever see. we're also going to hear from pete gill, otherwise known as roaring kitty, the person on the reddit thread really talking about gamestop. we're also going to hear from

major hedge fund managers. ageb -- gabe, who lost a lot of money is gamestop soard. and ken griffin of citadel, who provided capital to gabe's fir m, and a majority owner of citadel securities, who handles a lot of trade for robinhood. you have it at almost every angle. each of them are bound to provide a different perspective on how all of this went down and what went wrong, if anything. haidi: roaring kitty has been sued for security flaws. what are the main takeaways that could potentially come after these hearings? sonali: that is a great question. because we no one of the things that regulators and lawmakers are going to look at is the robinhood side. gamification.

when it comes to reddit, something a lot of people are wondering is what role does social media play. reddit is not a trading platform by any means. but then again, it is not like we have not seen these questions arise before when it came to twitter or yahoo, especially many years ago. this is not the last time this is going to happen. this was an extreme example, but the role of social media and how people represent themselves online when they are speaking about stocks will be something that's an undertone tomorrow. haidi: sonali basak there. next, the deep-freeze in texas issuing little signs of abasing. that is rippling into a shock for the world's oil markets. we have the latest on that story. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: half an hour away from trading in japan and south korea. let's turn to sophie for what to watch. sophie: asx 200. the benchmark is little changed. stocks reacting to earnings report from across sectors. anc gaining ground. mining and construction services player and rw on the back of its results. we are seeing the move higher in yields pause with the 10 year yield below 137.

oil picking up. check out gold. holding losses near to month lows after the bounce we saw in the greenback overnight. checking in on the terminal. i will show you right now, the reflation trade took a breather yesterday. the rise across the commodity index has tracked the push higher in breakevens which are now above 2.2 on the 10 year. helped along overnight by solid u.s. retail sales data as well as the push higher in producer prices. oil in focus. the beauty i above 61 this morning. haidi: let's continue on this story. the u.s. energy crisis deepening. blackouts expected to last another day. what began as a power issue for a handful of u.s. states has turned into a shock for the global oil market. u.s. production is plunging to historic levels. joining us now to discuss is --

in terms of the longer-term impact on the oil market, is this an event that will take days or weeks to resolve? as some participants are looking at it as, is this a big shift in the reflationary narrative? >> i think there's a lot of things going on here. the oil production itself could be out -- could be back up and running by next week. the real question for me that i would be looking at is refiners. once they shut down, which they have because of lack of fuel and power, those take several days, up to a week, to get back up and running. multiply the days that they have been out with considerable barrels per day that they are not producing in terms of refined product like gasoline. that could start to have ramifications for the market

going forward. when you look at the reflation trade and start to see commodities in general on the uptick and more concerns about weakness in the dollar and inflation, that's also supportive over time of oil prices. in terms of recent events, this is more bullish for gasoline and refined products than it is for crude oil per se. shery: in terms of the supply side, there were warnings a decade ago for texans that the grid was not ready for snap cold events like this. are we likely to see measures taken to ensure more energy security after this event? >> i think so. yeah. there's a lot of things that could be done in terms of whether arising the infrastructure. it has been talked about. all the fuel sources failed to live up to what they were

supposed to do because their infrastructure wasn't properly prepared for black swan events like this. i think that that will start to become more in focus. also, people will start to look into the texas system. it tends not to reward or support having spare capacity. it's more about the cheapest price. i think that they might have to alter their system so that there's more cover. people will really need to look at where we are making investments in baseload capacity. that's the capacity, the feel capacity that can meet the minimum level of demand. over time, especially in texas, we've seen a real change in terms of the baseload going from coal and nuclear toward wind. i think we are seeing that there are some issues with wind in terms of intermittency that some of those other fuels might not

have because they can keep a lot of fuel on-site. they are not reliant on infrastructure that might be damaged as a result of extreme weather. shery: we are slightly above that $60 per barrel level. our markets correctly pricing in what's happening around the u.s.? >> well, we were bullish on oil prices and anticipated high 50's to low 60's. i don't think that we thought it would come quite this soon. i think that the market is correct to price in pent-up demand for oil in the post-pandemic world where people will want to fly again and get back in travel and working. in terms of whether the short-term is immediately

sustainable, no. i think we could pare here. we would probably be more bullish on the refined product side, given the impact to refineries. over the long-term, that means we would be bullish on oil prices just because we have seen less and less investment in new oil supplies. we think there's a lot of pent-up demand once the world recovers post-pandemic. to the reflation trade, we expect that there will be more inflation and that should be putting pressure on the dollar which would be beneficial for oil prices. shery: we heard that saudi arabia was willing to move and roll back some of its production cuts. what are you expecting from opec-plus in response to what's happening here in the u.s.? >> yes. the saudi announcement today isn't a foregone conclusion. i expect that saudi will not

want to see prices move materially higher than where they are now. we talk about producers, discipline in the u.s.. that theme remains intact to the extent that oil prices in the u.s. remain in the 50's. once you start hitting that $60 handle, i don't know that that discipline stays intact. i think that the saudi's also think that that should go out the window. you start getting into a market share battle. i think that saudi would be inclined to cool prices a little bit by adding more supply to the market. shery: what are you seeing in terms of the physical markets? we had asian buyers really trying to snap up any sort of supply out there, especially from the middle east. are we going to see more shortages? how do asian buyers cope? >> you make a good point. the wheel market moved very quickly.

we can go easily from being in a state of oversupply not that long ago to being in a deficit today. i think your point indicates that. the cyclical markets are tight. that is part of the reason that we are bullish going into the second half of the year. because of all the cutbacks in production and spending that have been made over the last year or so. they have finally caught up into the market. on the physical side, it really is tighter than what people think in the u.s. when you are not traveling as much. the physical markets are much tighter than what you think from an economic demand perspective. haidi: there's been a lot of accusations being flung at winter buns, national gas -- natural gas. what does this incident mean for

the energy mix going forward in the u.s.? >> yeah. all fuels failed to do what they were supposed to do, mainly because of the infrastructure around them. i think it might open more of a room for discussion around nuclear. that is something that has been shut down for a while. the advantage of nuclear is that it can keep a lot of fuel on-site. it's not reliant upon infrastructure to constantly transport fuel. it tends to be a bit more resilient. yeah, i think people will, especially as policies around the world and the u.s. support more electrification, that's going to put more strain on the grid. we will have to look at making sure that the grid is resilient and diverse. but also again, really looking at what is the basis for our baseload capacity.

if that is in fuels -- in the case that you mentioned with wind turbines, they were frozen. even if they had proper infrastructure so that they didn't freeze, there wasn't enough wind at that time. i think it highlights not just the infrastructure issue, but more of the diversity and what supplies the minimum threshold of demand. you will have to look at investing in other areas in the field market. shery: that will definitely be an ongoing conversation. thank you very much for sorting us. coming up next, the chinese markets will be playing catch-up when they reopened later. remember when they came back? that was when covid infections were spreading. the expectation is different this time around. we discussed. this is bloomberg.

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♪ shery: the weeklong holiday is over. traders and mainland china will be back at their desks later today after the lunar new year break. stocks primed to hit an all-time high. is this a huge difference from just 12 months ago when markets returned to a growing pandemic,

infections rising? we saw the stock markets china crash. let's bring in kevin king for what to expect today. we are expecting a little bit of bullishness. what is driving right now the optimism in chinese equity markets? kevin: definitely in the last week since chinese markets closed for the holidays, it has been a global game. we've had the hong kong stocks among mainland companies rise in the past week. the csi 300 index, 1.2%. things have been set up for the market to continue to move higher. nothing happened during the holiday week to interrupt the rally that we've seen globally and in the mainland stocks. shery: the holiday season is a big liquidity drain. the pboc expected to resume

lending operations. do we see that having an impact on trading? kevin: sentiment was hit a bit last month when the pboc pulled back on some financing of medium-term loans. that's not expect that again this month. we have 200 billion yuan of loans maturing. we are expecting a little bit of liquidity replenishment. it's at its highest level in 2.5 years. investors have been upbeat. at the same time, the pboc is looking to not have the yuan accelerate or depreciate too quickly. we've been keeping tabs on liquidity. doesn't wanted it to be too flushed or inflate any bubbles in china. there will be fresh financing. it will be measured, as has been the pboc's direction in recent months. shery: always prudent, the pboc. that's a preview of the start of

trading in the year of the ox. let's get to vonnie quinn in new york for the first word headlines. vonnie: citigroup is adding its voice to those -- the 10% correction is very vulnerable. city says the continuing bullish targets mean neutral stance is the most realistic position. u.s. retail sales surged in january, beating all estimates and suggesting a rebound in consumer demand. the value of sales rose 5.3% from the month earlier after a 1% fall in december. it's the first monthly gain since september with all major categories enjoying strong demand. liver can that boeing has written a warring -- warning of potential aircraft issues. a document obtained exclusively by us has been sent to boeing

customers around the world. surprising steps needed to maintain control. an aging 737 dived into the sea after takeoff, killing all 62 people on board. saudi arabia confidence growing in the recovery of energy demand. the kingdom slashed exports last month, saying it would cut one million barrels a day in production to boost the market. sources say riyadh will reverse those cuts when producers meet in march after the recent recovery in oil prices. steven mnuchin is joining the speaking tour surface, offering himself for engagements for six-figure sums. he sensing in chart -- intends to charge $250,000. 75,000 for a virtual address. he says that should be closer to $100,000.

global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. this is bloomberg. haidi: will the recent bitcoin surge have been hard to ignore? it has run higher still. not everyone is convinced that it has any value. the crypto phase is a speculative, self fulfilling bubble and is into legitimate currency. >> it is surging because that is a massive amount of manipulation . there is spoofing. issuance not backed by much. i think it's a bubble. fundamentally, bitcoin is not a currency. it's not a scalable means of payment. it's not a stable store of value.

[inaudible] your profit margin could be wiped out. [inaudible] these are not currencies. calling them fiscal currencies is wrong. >> i want to get to the heart of it. the transaction costs of bitcoin and retail transactions preclude its use. do you look at tesla as a one-off? bitcoin will never be used at retail because the transaction cost is so much higher than normal currency. >> the transaction costs are huge. the technology doesn't allow more than 500 per second. [inaudible]

it's not a scalable means of payment, leaving aside the fact that transaction costs are so high. they will never be used for goods and services. it can be used for site -- speculation and buying other traits of currency. it will not be scalable means of payment for goods and services ever. >> you mentioned the volume of transactions. what about a smaller volume and larger sizes? >> meaning what? >> meaning if you could transact in large tons of money and move cash through bitcoin in large numbers. not the volume of individual transactions. let's say you could move one billion from point a to point b with bitcoin. >> even steve mnuchin said that bitcoin is becoming the next swiss bank account used by human traffickers, terrorists as a way of moving across borders.

right now come across borders have slow movement of transactions. that's why it's hard to move money from one country to another. the system is a legal that allows the transfer of money from one country to another one without any control. that is something that will be used by terrorists or tax evaders. no country will allow that. there has been a crackdown of the g20 on those types of offshore financial centers. [inaudible] >> what do you make of the increasing institutional sign that we have seen more recently? >> you have to ask yourself, it's not a currency or an asset. usually, stocks, bonds, loans, real estate yield some income. dividends, interest, rent. some other assets like real

estate, you have services. [inaudible] look at bitcoin. it doesn't have any income. it doesn't have any use. it doesn't have any utility. it's a spurt -- pure speculative bubble on uprise depreciation. [inaudible] you have an asset that is not enough because it doesn't have the features of an asset. it doesn't have features of a currency. it's a simple bubble. that's what it is. the basic value is zero. it costs so much energy for producing it, more than argentina. [inaudible] haidi: be sure to tune in to bloomberg radio to hear more from today's big newsmakers and get in-depth analysis from the daybreak team while casting live

from our studio in hong kong. listen via the app or bloombergradio.com. plenty more ahead. stay with us. ♪

shery: here's a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. ford is overhauling its plan for europe, promising to go fully electric by the end of the decade. it failed to sell a single fully

electric vehicle on the continent this year. they planted -- plan to turn out ev's within two years. they want to offer plug-in hybrid or full ev models by 2026. but do is planning a widespread overhaul that will focus on artificial intelligence and electric vehicles. seen for years as a search engine that monetizes ads, it is now tapping capital markets with a range of ideas including a potential second listing in hong kong. fourth-quarter revenue was in line with estimates. it sees current revenues slightly above forecast. chinese robo taxi maker e hung bounce after denying a short seller questioning its finances. they were accused of flawed which sent shares plunging on tuesday. they recovered after the company says the report was deceptive and contained numerous errors

and unsubstantiated claims. they say that it's an elaborate promotion based on fabricated revenues. we are just a few minutes away from the start of trade in japan and south korea. let's turn to sophie for what to watch. sophie: keeping an eye on steel shares in tokyo. from may 1, it will alter production of [inaudible] until engine supplies are resumed. abc mark lifting its full-year net income forecast by 61%. an ¥8.8 billion game on listed security scales. trend micro on watch. the forecasted missed estimates. keeping an eye on japan airport terminals as well on plans to raise up to ¥61.4 billion in a share sale. they maintained targets.

let's look at australia. the asx 200 is a little changed. earnings and focus. most stocks in the red. thanks trading mixed. westpac on the up. conwell under pressure. gold miners are falling as well. boykin is holding nearer to month low. crude gaining ground, extending the session here. u.s. production falling by a record 40%. haidi: coming up, more market analysis ahead. a company at the forefront of early cancer detection in china. we are joined exclusively as the firm prepares to list in hong kong later. the market opens in tokyo and seoul, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ shery: welcome to daybreak asia. i'm shery ahn. haidi: i'm haidi stroud-watts in sydney. asia's major markets have just open for trade. oil hit its highest any year as u.s. output plunges 40% amid the bitter winter last. a ban on out-of-state shipments. a mixed session on wall street. chinese stocks may wreck --

reopen at record highs when trading resumes after the lunar new year break. a former olympian may become the new head of the tokyo games committee. she's one of two women on the cabinet. shery: plenty for investors to watch today including a 20 year jgb auction. sophie kamaruddin and is in hong kong. sophie: ahead of that, we have jt be rebounding after what we saw on wednesday. yen holding steady after it retreated from 106. we are seeing stocks move to the upside in tokyo. 2/10 of 1% this morning. softbank shares as it is looking to match a data plan. softbank shares gaining ground this morning. lithium related stocks.

panasonic. south korea, house cold -- household income data. that has stayed sluggish along jobs. that prompted the bok to raise warnings around the divergence with as places. the kospi is up 120% from the march low. we are seeing it off by 2/10 of 1%. the korean won affirming the level. off to percent year-to-date against that. capital outflows increasing with a foreign exodus outside of the korean won. switching out the board. earnings and focus in australia. shares gaining ground more than 2% on a record profit report for the first half. the offshore yuan back above 640.

we will watch to see if the people you see may make an effort to curb enthusiasm or provide liquidity action following the lunar new year break. after a mixed session on wall street, u.s. futures little changed. cash treasury coming online with a tick higher in the 10 year yield. flattening overnight given the reaction to the fed meeting minutes. wti extending gains into a fourth session. u.s. oil output falling. the dynamic edging out the question around inflation a little bit right now. haidi: let's get more on those markets now. our next guest season two headed dragon in the virus. virus versus reflation. joining us now is virginie maisonneuve. these two uncertainties and

where the virus goes, how the vaccine rollout goes as well. what is the balance of risks at this point? >> i think the balance of risks is that the markets will try to estimate what is the tipping point in terms of how the manufacturing trends that we are seeing around the world versus the overall economy because the service economy is still quite weak. when is that tipping point really putting pressure on rates? we have seen and discussed it for quite a few months now. this expectation of anticipation of normalization of monetary policy globally. when is that going to happen? that is really the risk. that is why i call it the two headed dragon. on one hand, the virus and faxing deployment going well and the virus to be tackled. in that space, there is time to really by reflation trades. some of the value stocks for

example. of course around the corner is that question of rates. that's the delicate balance that we need to work out. shery: what do you mean by china phase 3 and the fact that investors should be prepared for that? can you talk to us about that? virginie: yes. yes thank you. i believe that china is entering a phase 3 of its interaction with the world. if you think of phase i being when china joined the wto and became really more available and integrated in the global supply chain, if you think of phase two which was the great financial crisis during which china, through its resilience and different mode of operating, was the second largest economy in the world. isaac with this crisis, we are in the role of technology and trade wars that we have had.

china is really entering phase 3. phase 3 is about extending its power invoice. i think it's going to be very interesting to watch. i don't think the world is ready for a china phase 3 which is that soft power, that negotiation, that expansion of its influence as we have seen in asia. it's going to be really interesting to see how it combines. the relationships over the next year. shery: let me just ask you the question of the day-to-day. we continue to see these market gains across the united states. really, it could not out space -- outpace the gains we have seen in china so far. how will china stocks perform versus its u.s. peers? what do you think? virginie: i think china will open stronger.

i'm still overweight china. in terms of the positioning. china, the challenges big here. it will be to think about how china things about its monetary policy. clearly, it doesn't want to remember you to be too strong. it doesn't want to show too much excess investment have -- as we've seen in the past. as we saw earlier in january, this is a very fine tuned exercise. we will see how it goes. however, i'm still very interested in financials as we see this reflation trade and chinese banks have done nothing. they are really laggards. i think 2021 could be a good year for them. shery: we do have some breaking news at the moment. let me bring this in. it really plays into what we are seeing in the retail space in the u.s. and china.

kenneth griffin right now releasing a statement saying, this is a testimony from the congressional hearing that we will see this week. he wants to be perfectly clear, we have no role in robinhood's decision to limit trading in gamestop or any other of the meme stocks. we had that huge rally in gamestop and other countries. during that frenzy retail equities trading, securities was the only major market maker to provide continuous liquidity of every minute of every trading day. this is going to the broader narrative of retail trading really taking a hold in the u.s.. to some degree, in china. we do have more regulation in china. retail traders taking a huge chunk of the market. what do you make of this frenzy that we have? seen in recent weeks weather here in the u.s. or more participation we are seeing across asia. virginie: you have several

factors. people have been at home a large part of the population because of lockdowns. second, we've seen an acceleration of technology use and digitalization. we have also seen providers, brokers providing really easier access. that combined with lots of liquidity means that this is to be expected. however, what is very interesting is, as you said, the regulatory aspect is clearly not the same for retail investors as it for's -- is for institutional investors. my sense is, if we continue to see excesses, we will see a trend for more regulation. it will be hard to impose that on retail investors themselves. perhaps on the providers of the service of trading in order to

keep things more in check. shery: great having you want. thank you very much for your insights. virginie maisonneuve. let's get to vonnie quinn with the first word headlines. you have a little bit more on the congressional hearing we are expecting on all that frenzy retail trading that we saw. vonnie: exactly. one of the most influential voices that pushed gamestop shares on social media is being sued for security fraud. he goes by the name roaring kitty. they investigate the retail investor driven surge in meme stocks. he says he's not a professional financial advisor and wasn't part of any pump and him scheme. facebook has started restricting new sharing on its platform amid government plans to for social media companies to pay for content. the number of titles in

australia and dells well -- google and facebook have threatened to leave australia if forced to pay. jan mars military leaders are tightening their grip on power with civilian figureheads in court unexpectedly and with no lawyer present. the legal team says she appeared via video link a day earlier than expected. she faces three years in prison. she's also charged with breaching virus restrictions. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. this is bloomberg. haidi: still ahead, and expose of interview with the first company to win approval for early cancer diagnostics in china. new horizon health debuted. the ceo joins us. the energy crisis in texas.

gas companies are barred from taking fuel out of state. we get the latest. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: texas has banned sales of natural gas beyond its borders in the latest sign that the crisis has left millions in the dark. it is far from abating a power issue. it is rippling into a shock for the global oil markets. we are joined now on the line. first of all, how bad is the situation? when can we expect it to get better for those millions of people right now without power? >> it's pretty terrible. just today, we've been talking to people in texas who are without power and also without water. they are going out and collecting snow and boiling it just so they can bathe and flush their toilets at home.

this is the third day that they are facing these rolling blackouts. the texas grid operator and utilities don't seem to be able to tell them when it's going to end. they know that these blackouts are going to continue until at least tomorrow morning, maybe later. it's a pretty terrible situation for them. it's also a terrible situation for energy workers. just a few numbers to share with you. natural gas output in the u.s. has dropped more than 20%. oil production is down by more than a third. oil free soft sand fuel shortages and other logistical issues that have been caused by this blast. we were saying that this is the biggest disruption to energy supplies in american history. shery: when does this send? even anecdotally, looking at friends in the state saying that they had power back for a day and they are without power

again. how long do we anticipate that it will take to get back to normal? lynn: yeah. only the grid operators are going to be able to answer that. they are saying, we don't know. what i can say in the meantime, instead of it getting better, it has gotten worse. overnight, we noticed that the load on the power system had actually fallen to the lowest since the blackouts began. that signals to us that the grid operator has still not been able to get a handle on how to bring electricity back to people in a more permanent way. shery: the big freeze has disrupted america's vaccine rollout. deliveries delay. even away from the snow, some people are still hesitant to have the shot. we were told, what can impact that resistance.

what that vaccine hesitancy could have on the fight against the coronavirus. >> i think it's tangible. we are rolling out to health care workers and elderly and vulnerable populations right now. around a 10th of the population, may be less has been vaccinated so far. what we know is that we are already seeing hesitancy from these vulnerable, marginalized populations. that's within our health care cohorts and more broadly as we are starting to roll out vaccine education campaigns and access campaigns. we don't have great numbers on the population saying no because there's so many people that are willing to get it right now just because they want life to go back to normal and they are not scared of the vaccine and hesitant to get it. as soon as we get to the point where there's a significant amount of supply increase and we've gone through our frontline health care workers and elderly populations that have been able to get it through things like long-term care facilities, a lot

of us think we will see an eclipse where there's a drop off of people who are willing to get it. we will be sitting on supply. >> it strikes me that this process has been really messy. we are dealing with the education campaigns in addition to trying to figure out the rollout campaigns. it is changing in real time with the cdc recommending delaying the second shot now to get the first shot in as many people's arms, following the u.k. model. is this a mess? is this a plan? are we moving ahead as expeditiously as possible? >> [laughter] yeah. there's a plan being built. it's being built as it's going. that's really problematic for something like this. you potentially have multiple vaccines with multiple different distribution strategies and cold chain processes.

multiple different dosing approaches. how this is rolled out has been left to local planners. those are the same people who have had to plan testing campaigns, pe access projects, all the case counting in their region. there's not enough local resources to do that. the national strategy is being fixed. by fixed, i mean build. we didn't have a strong national strategy for that rollout. it's been incredibly impressive how fast we have got to vaccine. that's just one piece of the picture. the actual product. all these other pieces have been neglected while all the focus was on getting vaccine that actually worked. now it's time to really focus on a strategy that takes all the responsibility out of the local health departments and local health systems so that they can go back to providing strong

patient care and planning for all the other day to day emergencies that they have. >> president biden last night said that he expected things to be back to normal by christmas. what's the earliest that you see it being plausible? >> i think the first thing we have to do is readjust our sense of what back to normal looks like. this is a virus that will be with us for a long time. we are not going to get rid of it. we are going to manage it, probably the same way we manage flu. there are some distinct differences. as vaccine rolls out and more people get it and we do focus on the education campaign, we will still have to maintain our vaccine strategy and social distancing strategy well into the new year. possibly more if we don't spend a lot of time talking to these communities who are hesitant about faxing right now. shery: the school of public

health is supported by michael bloomberg, founder of bloomberg lp and bloomberg philanthropy's. it looks like the tokyo olympics organizing committee will take a female lawmaker to be president after a forced resignation. more on that just ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: a quick check of the latest business flash headlines this hour. ford is overhauling its plans for europe, promising to go fully electric by the end of the decade. it failed to sell a single fully electric vehicle on the continent last year. an assembly plant in germany. it plans to turn out ev's within two years. ford wants to offer plug-in hybrid or full ev models across china by 2026. shop at five warning growth rates would slow even as it

expands into new markets. they say revenue will route -- rise rapidly this year but not as fast as 2020. she it has not given guidance on earnings and says the vaccine rollout may see consumers returning to traditional stores. -- reaffirming doubts about bitcoin. volatility must ease to prevent the rally from fizzling out. they say the current price is unsustainable. tesla's recent $1.5 billion bid has added to the bitcoin bump. critics see a bust coming similar to the implosion of 2017. shery: the tokyo olympics organizing committee is picking a new president. she would replace a man who was forced to resign after saying women talk too much in board

meetings. let's get more from the bloomberg government reporter isabel reynolds in tokyo. why her? isabel: we have to look at the context here. her predecessor had to step out after making publicly sexist comments. the potential replacement who appeared in media reports was another man in his 80's. that sparked another uproar. that idea was dropped. it appeared obvious to everybody that this time, it needs to be a woman. now they found a women in her 50's. that shows that they are committed to it. she's a former olympic athlete herself. that's a great. she has competed in track cycling. quite unusual to have been a

participant into different sports. as the current olympics minister, she is very much up to speed with the preparation for the event which is only five months away if it goes ahead this year. shery: a lot of issues with only a few months ago. does this help things or resolve some of those issues? isabel: the first point to make is that we don't know for sure whether she will accept the job. presumably, she would have to step down from her current position as minister. it might not be the best career move for her in particular. it would force her boss, the prime minister, to find someone else to take over her cabinet portfolio. that includes gender equality as well as the olympics. he would need to find another woman. there aren't many in his party. less than 10% of the members are female.

obviously, whoever becomes the new president, the olympics faces the huge issue of whether it is wise to hold a global sports event in the middle of a pandemic. shery: of course, all of this came out of the comments made from the previous olympics chief , his views on women in meetings. we hear from the ruling party in japan that they want to respond to some of the criticism that the party is dominated by older men. there's a caveat in terms of female participation. isabel: right. the secretary-general has come out and said he wants to admit women to board meetings, but only as observers. they won't actually have the power to say anything in board meetings. in fact, the board members of the party are elected. they would have to run for election if they wanted to fully take part. it seems ironic that he's telling people to stay quiet in these meetings.

shery: isabel reynolds there in tokyo. what's more to come on daybreak asia. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: we have breaking data crossing the bloomberg on the austrian labor market. unemployment, 59,000 jobs being added to the market. it is a pickup from the 35.7 thousand from the month of december. part-time employment change seeing a fall of a most 30,000. participation rate coming in at 66.1%, a little lower than expectations and lower than the month of december. the unemployment rate taking a little lower at 6.4% from 6.6%,

and better than expectations of 6.5%. we had been expect in a continuation of the labor market recovery. we have seen job gains in victoria, a little offset by the virus flareup in new south wales. looking ahead to february's numbers were we had the five day mandatory lockdown. the labor market indicated it will point to further gains in employment in that month. we have seen job adds and business confidence remaining. unemployment rate very encouraging at 6.4%. pretty encouraging in terms of unexpected see-through to consumption. underlying labor demand in terms of hours worked will need to continue to rise further. there is a lot of capacity in the austrian labor market. let's look at reaction on the markets today. sophie: on the back of the jobs report we are seeing the aussie dollar maintaining the date's

advance adding about .2%. upper 77 levels this morning. we are seeing moderately risk on across asia. nikkei 225 leading that event. seeing some swings as earnings are focused, now edging slightly higher off session lows, struggling to gain traction as we are seeing heavyweights dragging on the benchmark, while yields are slipping. switching out the board, aussie gold miners under pressure with bully on near a two-month low. seeing it near the 1780 level on gold. when it comes to the iron ore space come on the back of its report card we are seeing iron ore features in singapore perk up, moving further above the 160 level. flipping out the board, want to highlight south korea. the underperformer when it comes to regional stocks in asia.

extending midweek loss on the kospi. weighing on the share marker. under pressure as we saw the lithium giant miss on earnings estimate. i want to highlight shares rising this morning more than 2%. bts's agency is set to launch a new label that will host a global audition for any aspiring kpop stars. i don't know if that is something that is up your alley. shery: not really but we all live a little bit of kpop here and there. but all eyes will be on the china reopen. david in glace -- david inglis is watching the china open. david: ok. it is going to be called cpop.

don't you think -- we have a big group. in any case, back to a more serious conversation, it is a stark contrast. 12 months ago i was in my sweats because we were broadcasting from home. we went into the lunar new year and that is when things escalated in china. that is when we did that 8% gap lower in the csi 300. it will be much, much different. we will probably not get an 8% gap higher based on the proxies it is likely we will see a gap open higher. given that we only closed 1.2% shy of the all-time record. about 70 points on the csi 300. we are likely going to see,

assuming nothing changes over the next hour, probably a new record high on the csi 300. haidi: what are we looking out for the fixing and what is that like given the moves we are seeing in currencies when we see onshore currency trading begin? david: as is the case in previous long holidays we will probably get a small adjustment in the fix. the trend really going into this holiday was one of yuan strength. we hit something on a 30 month high. when you look at this chart coming up we have noticed the fixing of the pboc has largely been weaker than expectations and has been frequently over the last couple months. the yellow line, once in part -- points up you are getting more weaker fixings than the expectations. that is one angle to watch when

the currency market gets underway. shery: also watching the chinese 10 year government bond yields rising despite the fact treasury yields took a pause today. they have a lot of catching up to do. david: i think we are looking at five basis points now. the spread actually narrowed because things are shut and of course you had this move up along the u.s. i'm doing some rough math here but that should put the premium back over 200 basis points. that is obviously something we are tracking closely. you also have a lot of commodity exchanges coming back online. iron ore futures is one to watch. plus we are on watch for a possible injection out of the pboc. that takes -- the overnight repo rate has gradually come down after the scare -- the tear we had three weeks ago. a lot to watch but again, the

headline is probably going to be if you are a bull, that the csi 300 hits a new record today. haidi: all right. david there. band names there, really appreciated. coming up next, nearly 200% of evidence -- we are going to speak to their executive about the business. this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloomberg. ♪

vonnie: citigroup is predicting a slump in the u.s. and global markets. they say 10% correction is possible and a revised view of earnings. the continuing bullish targets mean and neutral stance is the most realistic position. saudi arabia is trying to raise oil output as confidence grows in the recovery and energy demand. the kingdom slashed exports last month, saying they would cut one million barrels. bloomberg can reveal that boeing has written to carriers warning of potential aircraft issues in the wake of a crash in indonesia

last month. a document obtained exclusively by us has been sent to boeing consumers around the world, emphasizing -- it dove into the java sea, killing all 62 on board. steven mnuchin is joining the leaker to speaking tour circuit come offering himself for six-figure sums. he says he intends to charge a quarter of a million dollars to speak in person. an ad notes $75,000 for a virtual address although mnuchin says that should be closer to $100,000. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. shery: let's turn to china.

cancer screening test maker new horizon health listing in hong kong in the coming hour. the retail branch of the ipo was more than 4000 times covered, making it the second most popular hong kong offer with retail investors. that's bring in the new horizon health ceo zhu yeqing, who joins from the company's headquarters. thank you so much for joining us and also congratulations on the listing today. give us your reaction about the sort of demand you are expecting today, and perhaps a little bit of your plants and what you plan to do with the funds. zhu: thank you so much. these are very exciting times. not just for the company but for the industries in china. people start to realize it is so important these kinds of screenings can help to reduce cancer incidence and mortality

in china. new highs in the past seven years, -- we conduct the most multi-censored -- [indiscernible] it is a big milestone for the industry. thank you so much for paying attention to the company and for supporting cancer screenings in china. shery: this is a huge change in the chinese market. so what sort of implications will this have for cancer care across the country, not to mention perhaps some of the changes having an impact on yourself and drugmakers as well? zhu: in the past seven years,

people realize how important cancer screening is for their health. in the past decade, china economics have been growing rapidly. the aging population is increasing, and cancer incidents have been critical for these people's health. so cancer screenings that's more awareness. people in the -- trying to improve cancer screening awareness and trying to increase early cancer detection range for high incident cancers. we saw the certificate issued through new horizons. it has opened a path for the industry. i think it is a big signal for not only the market, but for this industry.

a very strong signal. haidi: how do you market this to the patients? because this is a very new industry. most people in china it would still prefer to go to hospitals. we know the hospital system is very overwhelmed, so how do you get across some of these challenges, as well as may be concerns over the accuracy of at-home diagnostics? zhu: our clinical performance was the best compared to other products. second, i think in the next three to five years we are focused to educate the professional market. like you say, the hospitals, physicians, and doctors, trying to get sufficient endorsement from the doctors. our product was approved on november 9. in the last month, our product

has been listed in the first version of the chinese cancer guidelines. it is important for us to promote in the professional market to help us to benefit the market. so we will also try to help our own sales team to cover the hospital market to try and increase market penetration from 5% to 10% in the next three to five years. haidi: what will you use money from the fundraising from? are you looking to raise other diagnostic tests for other cancers? we know lung cancer and breast cancer of the other two major dominant cancers in china. zhu: definitely. first of all, we use the money to develop a market to our product. most importantly, we will leverage our platform to develop more high instance cancer

products. we already have two x-ray products. one is focused on -- we're looking at all the high instance cancers to try and find the best solution, either for the screenings or early detection. haidi: what kind of government support are you getting in terms of the regular -- regulatory framework, and does it encourage marketing of home diagnostics, maybe less traditional avenues of diagnostics? zhu: first of all, i mentioned the healthy china initiative really helps to drive awareness of the cancer screening in the country. also the government has several very clear kpi's for cancer

screenings to improve the cancer rates. 55% of high instance cancer, this is a very strong signal for this market, that the government also initiated a lot of new products. they started a project trying to screen over 60 million people in the next five years. our technology can really help the government to drive awareness and to detect more early cancer patients. shery: how do you think you are technology compares to other global companies? zhu: we have conducted head to head clinical trials. based on our large-scale prospects of a clinical trial,

involvement over 6000 patients, our clinical trial, the performance is the best among the world. our sensitivity has achieved 95.5%. the mp rate we achieved is 99.6%. our sensitivity for it is almost 20% above similar products in the space. haidi: are you looking beyond the chinese market? are you looking at expanding internationally? zhu: furthermore, we think in the next three to five years, even longer, i think the market will have big growth year-over-year. we will selectively find partners helping us to expand our market out of china for

sure. we will leverage the models, utilize our earners, -- par enters. also since we have built up our platforms, we established a stage which can help us to license more products for the chinese market, help them to go through a whole clinical trial and help commercialize. haidi: all right. zhu yeqing speaking with us there. we wish you the best of luck. don't miss out on another big news give you up ahead. lots more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloomberg. ♪

shery: here's a quick check of the latest headlines. baidu is planning a widespread overhaul that will see a new focus on artificial intelligence and electric vehicles. seen for years as a search engine that monetizes ads, baidu is now tapping capital markets with a range of ideas including a potential second listing in hong kong. fourth quarter estimate was in lyman -- in line with estimates.

chinese robo taxi maker bounced back after denying a short seller report that questions its finances. they were accused of fraud, which sent shares plunging tuesday. they recovered after the company said the report was deceptive and contained numerous errors and unsubstantiated claims. wolfpack says they're an elaborate promotion based on fabricated revenues. cathay pacific has announced passenger numbers that make grim readings for shareholders could the airline flew an average of 980 people a day last month, the lowest figure since june. its load factor was the weakest on record at just 13.3%. overall, they flew about 30,000 passengers last month, a slump of 99% from a year earlier. revenue passenger kilometers fell 98%. haidi: taiwan says its attempts

to purchase 5 million dozers of the biontech covid-19 bounced seen -- vaccine fell apart. they are concerned a political pressure from beijing may have upset the deal. our bureau chief joins us now. what do we know about how this deal fell apart? >> all this comes from a radio interview the health minister gave yesterday morning in which he revealed taiwan had been on the brink of securing 5 million doses of the biontech vaccine. it even got to the stage where all that was left was to sign the deal. the minister said they had even written a press release for the announcement. but then as the minister put it, outside waters intervened and the deal fell apart. he insisted the deal is not totally dead but is instead just pending. but it certainly looks like taiwan will not get their hands on the biontech vaccine anytime

soon. shery: so what is the evidence that perhaps points to china's involvement here? samson: well, shanghai pharmaceutical is the company that has the rights to develop the market of biontech throughout mainland china and taiwan. to avoid having to deal with a chinese company due to the political sensitivity, the taiwan government negotiated directly with biontech germany. and all of that went well until outside forces intervened. it's quite interesting, during the radio interview yesterday, the host repeatedly prompted the minister, was it china behind this? he did not explicitly confirm it, but he did not deny it, and he absolutely had ample opportunity to do so. haidi: so then, where does that leave taiwan, of course one of the big success stories of

handling covid-19, in terms of its vaccination plant? samson: as you say, taiwan has been one of the success stories of the pandemic. so far they have been nine deaths in total and fewer than 1000 toth -- cases in total since the beginning of the pandemic. taiwan has controlled the pandemic in taiwan, but securing access to vaccines, that is where taiwan has fallen down a little bit. for months now, we've been waiting for the government to provide really concrete details for whatever vaccine it has been able to get. it has been slower than many other countries in securing access to the vaccine. shery: samson ellis there. of course we are headed to the reopen of the chinese mainland market after the lunar new year holiday.

let's turn to sophie in hong kong for what to watch. sophie: watching for a pop of the open for chinese markets. in hong kong it has been a good start to the year of the ox. a-shares are still cheap around 30%, even after narrowing from a high from last october. when it comes to stocks to watch, checking in on what is going on, keeping an eye on players like china mid metal. china may curb exports of rare earths. tencent nearing a $1 trillion line with market cap. it's the 6th biggest company in the world. sf holdings, morgan stanley raising their price target for the company by 36% on its growth potential. morgan stanley reckoning jb logistics will also have interest in the sector. haidi: coming up, j.p. morgan --

their views on the chinese market as we get the reopen of trading for the year of the ox. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

>> here we go. good morning. that :00 a.m. in beijing -- 9:00 a.m. in beijing. we are counting down to the green open. after the lunar new year holidays. the top story today, asian equities seeing a cautious start after a mixed session on wall street overnight. chinese stocks could be open at record highs a