jonathan: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." gamestop hearings a little bit later today. what we need to focus on, what economy.ning in the u.s. the upside surprises and in the last 24 hours have been massive.

tom: yes, we have claims later this morning. i know lisa will talk about that. and sure it is going to be a gloomy number. what a reset. i need to go to this right now. morgenthaler, you saw this yesterday as well. allen's it never capitulates to 7.8% gdp. that is a massive shift. look at the savings if we can it -- get the next stimulus. you and i cannot spend that if we could. john: three words, to numbers. high-pressure economy. to numbers. for 2021, 6 point 5% gdp growth. 2022, looking for 5%. look at the bloomberg, 2020 to gdp the. 3.6%. that is above and beyond what many people anticipate. huge value add. let lisa and i

do not talk before. jon and i never talk. we don't get along. lisa: people did not know that? everybody knows that. tom: a spiral of optimism. jon: nobody thinks he is joking. jon: is this time different? lisa: is this time different? jon: let's get to the price action. good morning. on the equity market s&p 500, down by 16. the underperformance comes from the nasdaq. we will talk about that more later.

basis points of. lisa, 40% of crude output is down in the united states of america. 61 handle. lisa: it is shocking. we have not overplayed this at all. the energy crisis that is raging down in texas and beyond. these, the amount of oil taken off-line -- the scope of the amount of oil taken off-line. we get jobless claims. expecting it to be a little better than last week. still an astronomical figure. expecting to take lower by little but it shows the scope of the devastation that is ongoing to the labor market despite some of the surprises we have been talking about. natural gas individual worries -- natural gas inventories.

expect to be discussions about limiting or forcing disclosures come about shortselling in addition to order flow. a number of other issues. hard to know the legal consequences could be as on the citadel and robinhood executives take the hot seat. jon: can you think of a hearing that has got to the bottom of anything? tom: it is all show. i hate to be skeptical, but it is also. there may be some value. mr. miller mentioned that. i agree, it is going to be a lot of show. people will lead forward for mr. griffin as he appears. jon: from the lawmaker standpoint, it is always the same thing. looking for a reason to do what they wanted to do anyway. tom: i went to get to the real yield which is important.

not only the one-hour show tomorrow, but right now. on texas, i want to mention -- what we're trying to do under the simulcast, bring you sensible experienced voices on these different things. jon: looking for $80 crude. this morning, 61 on wti. 64 handle on brent. i keep hearing about a commodity super cycle. people arrived as the question, what does that come from? we have had a huge series of upside in the u.s. when you think about the dependency of china on commodities and how much of chinese demand accounts for that -- take a look at copper. you need a huge boom in china to continue. 5% gdp growth to continue in the next decade to see what we saw in the previous 10 years.

tom: commodities are not homogenous. goldman sachs series is much more hydrocarbon. i have an affinity for the bloomberg commodity index, which jon is blended across all of them. it would be nice to speak to someone truly expert in the state of commodities. young gartman ages ago was in the pits enjoying losing money. jon: let's talk to dennis now. janice dennis gartman. a commodity super cycle, your thoughts now? dennis: i think there's something very serious in that commodity markets. look at all must anyone want to look at. tin his up dramatically. copper is up, cotton is up. what, corn, soybeans up dramatically. the cost of shipping goods, up dramatically. there is something more than a

mere bounce from the lows. the bear market that existed for more than a decade has ended. by the cable market that will probably last for a long evening time has begun. the monetary authorities are sponsoring this as they become expansionary. this is not going away anytime soon. tom: dennis, you are absolutely definitive in the way you stop losing money and commodities, which is the habit. what is your best practice for our listeners and viewers to not lose money investing in commodities? what is the single best gartman tip? dennis: avoid adding to losing trades. an old rule of mine, do more of which is working and less of what is not.

do more of that which is working and less that is not. lisa: evidently, triple overcash working really well for tom keene. goods inflation, this idea commodities gaining at a time when people can't go out and have experiences and in the same way because of the pandemic. there has been a shift from spending under services to spending on goods. is that going to last in enough of a way to keep the super cycle going or could this be skewing what we're seeing currently? dennis: as long as monetary 30's continue to be expansionary and not just the fed that is that way, the bank of canada and bank of england and the people's bank of china, reserve bank of russia , australia and new zealand come all are all expansionary, all are expanding reserves at a pace far past any reasonable expectation of gdp and population growth, so it is inflationary around the world. this is not going in a way --

away anytime soon. this is sponsored by the central banks and not going to stop. tom: what mr. gottman just mentioned, trading strategy, called an anti-martindale strategy from the bibles of years ago when people used to lose money with maybe a more informed view. dennis gartman, jonathan ferro demands i go to the real yield. you know the focus is on treasury. the money they have at the fed is going to flood the system. do we go to negative interest rates, money market funds? do we go to a volatile real yield? dennis: i think what has happened and will continue to happen, the curve will continue to widen. the backing of the curve, which is there in the fed has little control over, will continue to see higher and higher interest rates. the long bond would above 2% this past week and will go to 3% to 4% over the next several years. the fed will keep the overnight

fed funds rate. they told us. i believe them. they will keep it at or near zero. can i take into negative numbers? it is civil. i doubt it. the spread between overnight fed funds rate and the longing of the curve is going to continue to widen. this will help the banking system more than anybody else. this is something that is predicated upon inflation continued for a long amount of time. the market itself is tightening monetary policy at the long end, and that is what people have to understand. jon: dennis, great to catch up. dennis gartman. looks like the broader market, equities, leadership has changed also energy financials leading in the last couple of weeks of a massive rally in crude. tom: we call it rotation. but as we talked about yesterday, the theme to me is

nobody has a reset on earnings coming out after the second quarter. i have yet to hear a cogent analysis of what we're going to see the first week of august. jon: what has been missed, earnings growth year on year has been positive. we've already got that positive earnings and revenue growth coming into 2021. economists specifically looking at the economy and wondering if there estimates are too low. i want to understand whether this bread between economists and markets, how big it is. what the economist think and prices -- market prices are different. tom: i believe home depot's february 23 -- how is home depot going to guide forward in the 7% gdp economy? jon: final word, very interesting to see how the rate sensitive sectors and it is equity market benefited

massively over the past 24 hours. tom: please always says final comment. jon: leon cooperman coming up. looking for to that as we can't you hearings on capitol hill. gamestop back on top of the agenda later on. this is "bloomberg." ♪ >> texas is taking an extraordinary step to try to recover from those rolling blackouts. the state is restricting the flow of natural gas to make sure in-state power generators have are not. ; that a violation of the u.s. constitution commerce clause. several million texans are without electricity. president biden has had his first-come call -- phone call with benjamin netanyahu. the president called it a good conversation. the delay in the two leaders

speaking led to the speculation mr. biden was freezing out netanyahu. these are the leader had a close relationship with donald trump. -- the israeli leader had a close blazer jump with donald trump. keith gill will testify today before a house committee. he plans to say he is not a financial advisor and wasn't part of the pump and dump scheme, better known as rain kitty, the name he uses on his youtube channel. he became a multimillionaire setting up gamestop. about 2.69 people in the cake stuck to lose their jobs in the next three months. -- about 2.6 million people in the u.k. expect to lose their jobs in the next three months. including people who have already been told they will be let go. the findings that young people and the lowest earners are the greatest risk of losing those jobs. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

i am karina mitchell. much more ahead. this is "bloomberg." ♪ so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business.

>> every source of power the state of texas has has been compromised. whether it be renewable power

such as wind or solar, but also as i mentioned today, access to coal generated power, access to gas generator power also have been compromised. >> we have an energy crisis. that was greg abbott from texas. from new york city, good morning. that energy crisis script and in the oil market in a big way. here today, the story, crude much higher. wti up by 26% so far. 128 your yield on tin. later on, jobless claims. euro-dollar turning around. and in the equity market, we pull back on the s&p 500. still north of 3900. down on the session. outperformance coming from the

nasdaq, down one away. tom: equity readjustment, no question about it. i call it stasis in bonds. i am glued, folks, to the real yield -.94%. that is in all the research notes. we thank the banks for sending that along. i'm trying to avoid gamestop as much as i can. emily wilkins joins us from washington. what is so important here is texas. we have learned -- and i was wrong on this, folks -- how big this texas mess is. paul sankey identified that yesterday. emily, in "the washington post" from the baker institute in rice university, the problem that is texas. can washington help or is washington removed from the stay battle of this crisis?

emily: washington is helping. a couple of days ago, president biden did approve emergency funds to go to texas and help individuals cut in the winter storm. they don't have heat or power or water. far colder temperatures than texans are used to. fema has also announced they will be sending aid down to texas. the federal government has mobilized to help out. as far as further issues come as far as what went wrong and how to fix that, we will be seeing that play out i think in the coming weeks and months. lisa: we have seen the politicization of a number of development in terms of what peter politicians view, sublime and the emphasis on green technologies like wind turbines for some of the disruptions. others excited ethic to do with it, but fortifying some of the oil lines and taking other measures. can you talk about how much this is consistent across the lines with democrats lining up on one side and republicans on the other?

emily: individuals in texas are saying one thing, the natural energy sources, the other saying, no, it is other energy sources, traditional energy sources are just as much to blame for this current power under -- power outage. the greatest someone separate from the other power grids in the united states. -- the texas power grid is somewhat separate from the other power grids under the united states. i think the wider question goes a bit young politics, the fact there are people who are in is really dire situations. what needs to be done, sure that doesn't happen again. jon: it makes the hearings a little later feel a little insignificant compared to what is happening around the country. what is the objective of these hearings around the gamestop episode of the last several months?

emily: i think mostly for lawmakers to figure out what actually happened and is there something the federal government needs to do here? one big question on lawmakers minds this morning will be why robinhood stopped the trading of gamestop stock another so-called meme stock. they want to figure out if there was collusion with citadel another hedge funds. mostly trying to peace through what happened and if they should -- if there's a role that congress needs to play or if they need to mostly let the sec handle this one. tom: the bottom line is come our audience is going to be fascinated by what ken griffin does with citadel. he will show up with an entourage of 40 people to be sure he says all the right words. what will you listen or from someone like mr. griffin? emily: going back to the big lawmaker question, was there any sort of collusion -- tom: what is he going to say,

"yes, there was"? come on. emily: he is not going to say that, but that is why lawmakers will be asking questions, listening to what -- tom: they will be giving lectures. jon: tom, course they will. lisa: don't worry about it, emily. we all know they are basically going to be using this as a part. the key is, will anything come of this? as anything ever come of this? key things have come on the seamless talks. can you give us a sense of where we are and how much energy is still on that even amid these other distractions? emily: the stimulus talks are right on track. basically 10, 12 different committees to work on various packages last week. those are being combined into one package the house is said to vote on next week. from there, it will go to the senate and lawmakers are moving with their iona mid-march

deadline. they want to make sure they get this package through before and when it supplements run -- unemployment supplements benefits run out. jon: please come back. raising a point, let's talk about it, there's always a bad guy in this hearings. i am trying to worry -- figure out who the bad guy is. is it the leader of robinhood, mr. griffin of citadel, the guy who lost a lot of money, the leader of the reddit forum? tom: is anyway shown up who has made a killing -- has anyone shown up that has made a killing? jon: mr. gill and mr. griffin will be there. lisa: one key question, what can they do? you raise a good point, who is the villain? as it the populist sizing there should be access for retail investors, people saying from a more institutional level yet

have our protection and disclosures, shortselling. report yesterday in "the wall street journal" about how the fcc is looking into mandating more disclosure for short sales. jon: more transparency. what does that achieve? what would it prevent in this case? what would it have prevented? lisa: maybe a more obvious -- i don't know. this is a key question, the reason why the sec has been asked to do it. tom: feldstein griffith, i would go to big apple floors on the way to the gulfstream and buy a big pot of gorgeous tulips and put them right on the table and say there is no difference. jon: i don't the mr. griffin is going to take your advice. you're comparing gamestop to tulips. i get it. lisa: there is a reason why tom is not part of the entourage. jon: he is not on the pr team.

coming up, terry haines. we wait for the snow to hit new york city. tom: we have a storm coming? i am unprepared. jon: that is not surprised. when you switch to xfinity mobile, you're choosing to get connected to the most reliable network nationwide, now with 5g included. discover how to save up to $300 a year with shared data starting at $15 a month, or get the lowest price for one line of unlimited. come into your local xfinity store to make the most of your mobile experience. you can shop the latest phones, bring your own device, or trade in for extra savings. stop in or book an appointment to shop safely with peace of mind at your local xfinity store.

jonathon: from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance." counting it down to the opening bell. underperformance from the nasdaq. the epicenter of that a small inflection in real yields, completely negative that the inflection is there. this is what i want to talk about to get to this chart right here. joe weisenthal wrote about this, picking up on the work of a good friend of this program. what happened the last time the economy opened up? you see it around june. upside surprise. that is what this is. this is the data relative to what is expected by economists, and what have we seen, those upside surprises have started to pick up. bpi, retail sales, we are seeing

the same story play out all over again. economists under appreciating and underestimating how quickly the u.s. economy bounces back. morgan stanley picking up on this, a high pressure economy looking at 6.5 percent gdp growth. next year, 3.6 percent. switch up the board. yields drifting higher. the curve has started to steepen. we have 128, 30 at 0.1265 and a fed wanting to sit at the front end. the economy is looking good. tom: thank you so much. sterling, 139 .44 as well. right now, without -- rob carolyn joins us. it is -- he is wonderful at putting scope and scale on

storms. it is five below zero in north dakota. next monday it is scheduled to have a high of 43. after a deep-freeze like this, after 73% of america is covered in snow, what will happen to our river system? rob: the good news is that it does not look like we have rapid warming for anyone so we will probably see a slow melt. the big problem would be warm rainstorms which is not so much a threat into february, but deeper into march, then we worry about places like the midwest having issues with flooding. lisa: can you give a sense of historical perspective of how unusual this is? rob: for some places it has been 40 years, other places it has been over 100 years, you have to go back to 1899 to see records that were broken in oklahoma earlier this week. it has been a substantial period

since we have seen temperatures this gold, and they will stay cold into the upcoming weekend although the pattern is relaxing. temperatures in the 40's in the dallas area and 50's on the coast. tom: i am completely unprepared for the snowstorm on the east coast. jon ferro thinks i should get a room at the four seasons. how storm -- how bad will the storm be? rob: not as bad as the last several. this one will not produce any real heavy snow, it is a long-duration event and we will see light snow occurring in the tri-state area and into boston for a 24 to 38 hour period. the city will pick up four to seven inches, but it only falls an inch or two every six hours. boston, four to seven. freezing rain and the district, they will change over to rain this afternoon. tom: i am not going to be able to make it to the regency, i think i will get to the four

seasons. jonathon: i think the four seasons around the corner from here is closed. i will try and confirm that in case you try to get a room. tom: thank you so much. jon will try to find me a hotel room. we make jokes about it. terry haines is looking at storm response in washington with pangaea and our policy advisor. there has been a pandemic, a horrific freeze in texas. energy effort -- experts say it is grim. are we going to see an end to state power, are we going to see federalism off of these national crises. terry: what you see is a strength in federalism. i have always been a little amazed at how loose the energy grid is compared to the telecom grid, for example, and i think there will be a tightening up. that is the good news. the bad news is that it will

take years for the fun energy -- federal energy regulatory commission and other regulators to figure out how. i think there will be some tightening up. jonathon: do you think they can agree on spending money on infrastructure? terry: you know, i am pessimistic. there is always a paid for problem, secondly republicans are very wary of shovel ready promises, similar to that which president obama made a decade ago. and, one of the problems really is the bigger the stimulus back -- get less money for anything else. if you have a more reasonable stimulus along the lines of one trillion or so, which is the likely result as opposed to the $1.9 trillion, that frees up a lot of money for infrastructure. jonathon: you do not think we get the 1.9? terry: i have not all along. the problem is the same as the

problem that we live through in the fall, which is that there is too much of a christmas tree on things, there is too much state and local bailouts, the minimum wage whatever it is and however you feel about it is not directly related to covid relief. there is one third of this proposal that is -- that can be lopped off with the idea that you could focus really in a laserlike fashion on providing money and resources for covid relief vaccines, and the like, and that is where i think they end up. the simple version is they have senator manchin of west virginia saying not just no, but also that he wants a bipartisan process. you combine that with the barest majority we have ever had in the house, or one of them. you have a very long process. >> we have been talking about what congress may get done with

the stimulus as well as infrastructure spending. let us talk about the diversion that is gamestop. we have been talking about that -- it like it will be a pounding board for all the congress members to say who they will make a villain. to been your position within the house financial services committee, are we mischaracterizing this? is there something more substantial that could come from the hearings? terry: i would never say never, but i would say it is unlikely that there is more. there are three kinds of congressional hearings, ones that are directly related to legislation that is going to happen, the second is exploratory, should we have legislation and what should we do? should we direct regulators to do something? and the third is seeking media attention and political attention. this straddles two and three. i think you will get some interesting questions out of the committee. i have a very high opinion of chair waters, she is crazy like

a fox and will push a lot of the entrenched wall street players on this. but, it is very difficult to find a villain in this, in no small part because nobody agrees on what happened, nobody agrees on why it happened, and nobody really agrees that anything that happened is legal or illegal, although right now there is a strong lien towards legal for all -- lean towards legal for all of this. >> perhaps there is a larger policy implication, but the alliance of ted cruz and aoc on the populace because in the idea of people should be able to trade if they want to go up against wall street. is there something more substantiative that could be extrapolated through other policy discussions? terry: what ends up happening is that there is always a balance between wanting to make sure that the market is regulated and

responsible, and has an excellent reputation which minimizes risk. and kind of the anybody can play. you tend -- you go towards that too much and it is kind of a wild west with a reputational problem. we saw a lot of that back -- but if you go too far in the institutional direction is kind of a regulated public utility that does not incite -- excite everybody that does not offer the opportunity of significant return. so, they will explore through this. secondly, you have my old friends and other people in this, and, net-net, all of this will take a to play out. tom: this is critical, the republicans and democrats have a profound respect for gensler's resume and respect. explain to our audience why gensler is different. terry: for two reasons.

one is that gary is substantive, number one. so, he provides a lot of comfort that you are being given the straight scoop on a lot of things for a policymaker. secondly, the thing with gary is he is political in the best sense. he understands tactically the art of the possible and knows what needs to happen and how much he can bite off, and that is important when not only dealing with congress, who gives him his power as a regulator, but in a collegial atmosphere. you have four other commissioners you have to convince. that is a rare combination. in the last administration the person who had that the most was bob lighthizer who really had the confidence of republicans and democrats on a lot of stuff. i think you will see that with gary. he has had a long track record,

i worked with him when i was senior staff your -- staffer and he was on the others. he is terrific. jonathon: great to catch up, sir. terry haines of pangea policy. lisa loves this question, why isn't a rep from the federal reserve at the hearings? lisa: that is a great question. the question of what there be some sort of culpability on the fed policies. and this brings us to powell who said that he does not necessarily see any undue risk in financial markets but when you dig into the meeting minutes, staff had a different approach and indicated a greater degree of risk and frothiness. really interesting question. jonathon: called it notable. so why didn't sherman powell? -- chairman powell? can you figure that out? tom: i do not think it is there. mrs. keene wants me to

explain why i bought shares of gamestop. we are not going to show it, but long gamestop. there are a lot of losses. jonathon: there is. thank you. coming up, jason farley. lisa: some people gained money and some people lost money. they are always coming. jonathon: the s&p 500 is down .4% and this is bloomberg. ♪ >> with the first word news, the crisis that knocked out power to texas is now in its fourth day. lack outs in the houston area may last a couple more days while residents are shivering through subfreezing temperatures. takes is has taken the extraordinary first step of restricting national -- natural gas sales across state lines. bloomberg has learned that the

biden administration is seeking taiwan's help in resolving a semiconductor shortage. it has led to some factories cutting production. taiwan today's dutch taiwan is the largest manufacturing industry in the world. the coronavirus had a huge impact on life expectancy which fell by the most since world war ii. life expectancy dropped to 77.8. governments of two states saw that black men saw a two men decline. women outlive men by five years. the latest run shows spacex valued at 71 billion. other investors included valor equity. sequoia also invested in spacex last year with more than $600 million into the company at this point. credit suisse posted a lower than expected loss.

provisions were less than forecast. the swiss bank pointed to a strong 21. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> that build up and deposit is pent up demand that when the pandemic is behind us and we can

start to go to restaurants and stores again, those reserves will be used and you will have quite a robust recovery in the economy. jonathon: that seems to be consensus -- the consensus. that was the barclays ceo on a better economy. i am jonathan ferro. here is price action. check this out. equity futures down 16 off .4%. the underperformance is in the nasdaq down .8% on the tech heavy benchmark. keep an eye on that. but basis points at 1.28. the euro stronger and dollar weaker. tom: the data is something, and the state of the economic data we are focused on that at 8:30 and our simulcast we will have the claims report. we get an update from jason farley at johns hopkins, a nursing professor. he is an expert at epidemiology and his world-class research and

aids care as well. thank you for joining us this morning. i want you to describe what it means to you to see the decline in hospitalizations across america. what does that signal? dr. farley: i think that we are seeing great signals of initial rollout for the vaccine, also, people are doubling down new data -- people are doubling down about wearing masks. schools can reopen, i think it is a positive trend for sure and the health care system is taking eight a -- a breath of relief. tom: is there a trend that you can glean where new york city will move from 20 per -- 25% restaurant occupancy to 50 to 70%? can you link the trends, medical and social, or is that not possible?

dr. farley: certainly the pressure from the population will mount from greater liberties associated with real -- removing the restrictions as case numbers fell, but i would implore everyone to be patient, so we need to get the vaccine in people's arms in a greater proportion of cases before we begin a major role back. the variants continue to take hold and we continue to see more across the u.s. and we need to get ahead of those before we roll back restrictions. lisa: let us say you are lucky enough to get inoculated, you get both shots and then what? what changes for you if you are wearing a mask and have to socially distance and protect yourself from infecting other people because we do not know whether that person could contract the virus and then be contagious? what changes? dr. farley: this is an excellent question.

a few things change. the cdc has said if you received both doses or one in the case of j&j, they move beyond the window of antibody development so two weeks or 28 days, you have a substantial level of community that may prevent you from quarantining. if you are about or notified that you had a contact with someone who tested positive you can go about life as normal, which is big, particularly for the workforce. the second thing that changes is the sigh of relief. we know that it prevents 100% of hospitalizations and deaths. so far we have seen massive declines in the data out of israel is combating -- compelling. a 94% reduction. the movement towards normalcy is -- this is the first step. jonathon: there have been confusing headlines about the level of protection and degree

of protection that existing vaccines give you, particularly from the strain from south africa. what is your read on that? dr. farley: certainly mixed signals. first and foremost south africa was getting ready to roll out the astrazeneca vaccine from data from colleagues in the national health laboratory system says that there was reduced efficacy but also the potential for antibody escape and that vaccine, particularly so they halted and have the million doses sitting on the shelves and have pivoted to the j&j vaccine. we have to keep our foot on the pedal for genetic surveillance and we will learn more and more about the potential for antibody escape, and it is critical because each mutation is happening at a slightly different location on the spike protein so the new variant that we found in the united states is still under evaluation and we do not know if they are increased transmissibility or if they have

an immune response. lisa: how that is the u.s. at tracking these? dr. farley: not at all. we have a significant need to ragenesurveillance. jonathon: great to catch up. lisa: how is he doing -- how are we doing? real bad. jonathon: slightly distracted with the idea -- with the article from the bank of england where they are flirting with negative interest rates. check out one pound approaching 140. 17947. very close. tom: when we start seeing central blank -- bankers including christine lagarde, there has got to be a sentence or two where they reframe the gdp reset that we are seeing. jonathon: not for the ecb. have you seen the infant tatian -- inflation expectations? tom: there is no script.

in the u.s., curry in minnesota at a rotary in fargo talks about the optimism that is clear. jonathon: what is confusing about the u.k. is that they have the idea of negative interest rates being useful in the recovery phase. in the recovery phase, not the downturn. that is confusing because you would think, if you start to rollout the vaccine better like we have been doing. in the u.k. they have been doing that and you think about an economy that recovers, you would think that we were taking away the prospect of negative rates. at the bank of england introduced confusion about talking -- by talking about how beneficial they might be in the recovery phase and i am lost for words. tom: you go into planning for the real yield for tomorrow. i did a two standard deviation study for the real yield and has a long way to go to get to any kind of escape velocity. my calculation is 0.1386%.

that is a long way from 0.9%. jonathon: we were lower than that and more deeply negative than that and that change matters and it matters to what we have seen on the nasdaq. what i would be asking is how big can the spread build between the united states and germany. the bund 10 year treasury spread is way off levels. you have to ask the question do you think we need the rest of the global bard market -- bond market come along orkin treasury yields fight solo. lisa: and can policymakers afford rates going substantially higher? you talked about the bank of england dropping them lower during the republic -- the recovery process. will that become necessary? jonathon: coming up on that discussion, evan brown and head of multi-asset strategy. the snow is coming.

joining in with the rest of the country. tom, come on, this is not your normal february. we have a energy price -- crisis. 40% of u.s. crude is down. lisa: you have boots. ♪

>> we started pricing for 2021, so we have a long way to go. >> when houses have resources to spend, they ultimately will. >> this will be a global recovery for the same reason it was a global recession. >> every trade is being driven by negative real yields. >> at the core of it, how yields are predicting faster growth -- high yields are pritikin faster growth. -- hi yields are predicting faster growth -- high yields are predicting faster growth. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. 7:00 a.m. new york time, 92 way -- 90 minutes away from initial jobless claims in the