♪ >> the bull market that will probably last for a long time has begun. >> we start with price stability in 2021 but we have a long way to go. >> we are about to throw a gigantic amount of stimulus on a market that is about to reopen anyway. >> when houses have resources to spend they will. >> the bigger the stimulus gets the less money there is for anything else. >> every trade is being driven by negative real yields. >> at the core of the high yield protecting faster growth. >> we should not try to fight

the fed in this environment. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everybody pure it simulcasts on radio and television nationwide. bloomberg surveillance. i want to go right to the big shift we see. that is a recalculation of gdp economic growth. i like what you do. you go from where morgan stanley is at 7.5% on gdp, that is a huge reset. you take it out of 2022. jonathan: i think it is right to take it to 2022. in 22 they are looking for 5% gdp growth. 3.6% it is punchy out of 2022 for morgan stanley. tom: we are high wired -- we are hardwired. jim bianco with us in a bit.

an expert at technical trend analysis. how does the bob market re-rationalize when we get to a 1.35% 10 year yield. jonathan: not there yet what matters is what takes us there. what is driving it? as ubs evan brown pointed out, that is what will matter to risk assets. we are seeing the small inflection in real yields and it is been enough to contribute to the downward move on the nasdaq yesterday and this morning. tom: lisa abramowicz, you knew -- you know maxine waters and other politicians are focused on claims. we got an estimate of 700,000, way away from where we were in january. lisa: how do you reconcile the real-world pain being felt amidst these upgrades to the economic growth projections? i will put this at a counter point. citigroup eponymous putting out their expectations -- citigroup

economists putting out their expectations saying they do not believe a return to pre-covid gdp growth will occur until 2024. they say history shows the gap will be borne by bondholders, lower income people come and younger generations. tom: this is important to get back to trend gdp. we do not have the time to going to potential gdp. from where you sit and particularly in your reading, the twitter feed you do, is the bond market pricing in a subdued trajectory of gdp? lisa: that seems to be one thesis behind the subdued yields. not only is it the federal reserve, it is the subdued growth longer-term. are we getting a shift in that understanding as people upgrade their forecast. these are key tensions underlying the inflation calls. tom: we have a shift in the negative real yields? i do not see it. jonathan: it is small but it

exists. i think the move is enough to shift the market. if we do get a move the nasdaq and the growth stocks will be in trouble. that has underpinned the growth to valuation. tom: i have to call my hotel room and get ready for the storm. do a quick data check. jonathan: equity futures -14 on the s&p 500. i have no idea what is going on with you. euro-dollar 1.2078. the dollar is weaker, euro stronger. in the bond market, something north of 1.30 yesterday. we see 1.2956 right now. tom: we make light of it being february in new york. it is a serious issue from north dakota to texas on the edge of the mouse trump in the midwest. james bianco with us of bianco research. does the carnage of the midwest deep-freeze, does that adjust national economics? jim: you would normally think it

would but given we are already in the mode of working from home , the impact is less than it would've been in a pre-pandemic air. a lot -- in a pre-pandemic era. a lot of people like me are at home working. while it is snowing outside as i talk to you, not a lot will change with my work habits. jonathan: many people missed the recovery and how quickly the u.s. would recover. are we doing that all over again? james: as far as missing it, no, i think a lot of people are expecting a booming recovery. if there is anything we might be missing the return of inflation. i've heard wall street has been upping their forecast for real gdp growth and i would put a finer point on it and say it turns out to be nominal gdp growth that will be up and more of that component will be inflation and less of that component will be real growth. i do not think there is a lot of

people looking for the economy to turn south anytime soon unless something comes along to break it. jonathan: markets picking up on that. it feels like economists are behind the curve. you speak to many market participants separately. it seems like the economist about upgrade their forecast, particularly in the bond market. james: what they are being influenced by his interest rates. they are heading higher, but it has been a gradual brined. when i talk about the potential of inflation, rates might continue to move higher on inflation, the question of why aren't they going up now, you have the federal reserve buying 1.5 trillion dollars of bonds a year and that is probably damping the type of move we would have. i think it is there and economists are starting to pick up on this idea that the super cycle has turned, commodities are moving higher in inflation

looks like something that is coming back. it is also something new for a lot of people. lisa: that is what i was going to say, there has been a conditioning. just because the federal reserve is heavily involved in market does not mean we will get higher inflation. good inflation versus bad inflation. everyone is buying more goods and no services or not as many services. those goods are getting more expensive because of the increased demand so the real inflation is going up in some of the headline gauges. is that good? do wages follow? what is your sense? lisa: on the goods -- james: on the goods inflation you're not seeing it in data but there was a good point on twitter over the weekend. you're getting rationing. buy something at home depot and lowe's, the price is cheap and you will get it in april.

they are rationing their supply as opposed to raising their prices. that is a form of inflation, it is not showing up in the data. as far as where we will go from here, when you talk about bad inflation, the question will be once we reopen with all of the stimulus and services, because a lot of them are dormant because of the lockdown restrictions, are we going to see debt start to move? and finally we mentioned about wages. we have been mailing people money. we just got done mailing $600, we will mail them $1400. that is 20% of the american income being sent to you via the government in the form of stimulus, and there is big one coming. do not need wage inflation, your personal income inflation because the government is making up the difference and that will lead to a big stimulus when things reopen. lisa: this is the big distinction for why we would get

inflation much faster than people are expecting. as economists become more accepting of this idea, how high can yields go? james: that is the concern. we have a deeply negative real yield right now. if you were to get inflation back to the -- the fed says they will tolerate 2.5%. let's use that. then people believe inflation is something to stick with, we might have to move to positive yields. that could get you to 2.5% on the 10 year. in this levered bond market, that kind of move would be very unsettling, even though you might look at it from a long history. 20% is a low yield. from the perspective of the way bonds are traded, and especially financed to the repo market, that kind of move in yields will be a difficult one to swallow. tom: i want you to go back to

your training in technical analysis. how do you find the breaking of trend on the real yield? james: the real yield breaking of trend will be difficult to find because it has been in a downtrend and it has not turned very much. what i have found in looking at those charts is when it does break, it tends to move rapidly. i heard jon say maybe there is a turn here after a description, and maybe there is more of a turn, and then it just goes. that is what people are worried about when it comes to real yield. they will not be ready to rise like they have with nominal yield, they can move a lot faster. tom: what is important is red zone and green zone. your experience is when you go boom, you go, right to a positive statistic? james: i do not think it will be to positive statistic right away.

it will definitely break the downtrend we have been in. it will also be unsettling because it was the biggest buyer of real yields? it is the federal reserve. leon 20% of the market and they are buying it aggressively -- they own 20% of the market and they are buying it aggressively. you start thinking what is the private sector doing, selling aggressively, and that will be unsettling for everybody. jonathan: are you watching the hearing later? james: i will watch the hearing. i think they're missing the point. i think it will be about justifying short hales -- short sales instead of some of the things in of gone on. it'll be theater, but i do not think it will be much substance. jonathan: is that always the way. jim bianco. tom: that describes our last lunch. jonathan: i can hear someone talking somewhere. tom: that describes our last lunch. bitter but no substance.

jonathan: alongside the wonderful tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. karina: with the first word news, i'm karina mitchell. texas is taking an extraordinary step to recover from rolling blackouts is restricting the flow of natural gas a stocks -- across state lines. some are calling that a violation of the u.s. constitution's commerce clause. several million texans remain without electricity. meanwhile president biden is about to launch what may be one of his toughest legislative challenges. his immigration reform bill will be unveiled in congress. it includes a path to citizenship for 11 million immigrants living illegally in the u.s. and calls for more technology to secure the border with mexico. the president had his first phone call with israel's

benjamin netanyahu. they discussed israel peace efforts and defense cooperation. the delay in speaking led to speculation he was freezing out the prime minister. benjamin netanyahu had a close relationship with donald trump. shares of walmart are lower. the world's largest retailer reported one of its best holiday -- and facebook has started restricting the sharing of news on its service in australia. that is the social networks answer to a controversial law that would require tech companies -- google also opposes that law but did strike up a deal with rupert murdoch to pay for from the wall street journal and australia newspapers. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

i am karina mitchell. there is much more a comp. stay with us. -- there is much more to come. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ want to save hundreds on your wireless bill? with xfinity mobile you can. how about saving hundreds on the new samsung galaxy s21 ultra 5g? you can do that too. all on the most reliable network. sure thing! and with fast nationwide 5g included at no extra cost. we've got you covered. so join the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction. and get a new samsung galaxy starting at $17 a month. learn more at xfinitymobile.com or visit your local xfinity store today.

>> the reddit phenomenon, the retail phenomenon, which is a

lot of things, but one of them is a voracious source of demand for optionality. they know enough about options to buy them. they are all buying for short dated call options on single stocks, on indices as well. you have the supply demand imbalance. jonathan: macro risk advisors founder and ceo on the reddit phenomenon and a colleges that space, particular after a few weeks of people looking down their nose at the retail audience. i'm jonathan ferro counting you down to the opening bell about 12 in its way we will have initial jobless claims. after that we will get you the opening bell. -.4% on the s&p. the curve is steeper to almost 1.30 on the 10-year. in the commodity market we have shut down 40% of crude output in

the united states following this note cap -- the cold snap. to round things out, the euro stronger, dollar weaker. 1.2080 come up .4%. tom: very good. we are looking forward to claims. we will have that with michael mckee. the 700,000 statistic, dare i say we drop below 700,000 to a good 600,000 level? on what we will see today, gregory meeks joins us. he is the chairman of the house foreign affairs committee. he is also a member of the house financial services committee. he has been on the watch since 1998. for those of you nationwide and worldwide, you have never been more to his district as you go to jfk as he represents the fifth of new york, which is the traffic and new construction, the infrastructure built. congressman meeks, thank you for

joining us. what do you hope to accomplish today? take us away from the theatrics to the adultness of maxine waters. what is job one today? rep. meeks: trying to understand what did take place and trying to understand what we should have dialogue and conversation with the sec. it is basically the name of the subcommittee in charge of investor sectors. as we have done under maxine waters leadership previously, we saw consumer protection where we had the hearing in regards to wells fargo. sometimes something comes out of it more, we get ideas and thoughts, and sometimes it does not. we want to ensure the average everyday investor is protected. i know for me, i've been in congress since 1998, one of the worst times of my life was in

2008 with the financial crisis. i believe we could have and should have done something more and that is what i hope we are doing here. i am a former prosecutor, so we are looking to see if there's anything we should be looking at or doing. tom: you are underselling yourself. you're a former narcotics prosecutor on one of the toughest beats in the country before you took over at the fifth district. i want to get you on the same page as leon cooperman from the south bronx, who we just spoke to. leon says the rules are there, we are not affecting the rules. why can't we get back to securities rules on the books that get us away from this high insanity? rep. meeks: because of technology. we have to keep up with it. technology and social media makes things change. i have learned you cannot go by some of the same rules we had 15

or 20 years ago because things have changed. we have to make sure we are staying up-to-date with technological changes and the way people are engaging in the markets. that is how you protect investors. you cannot stay back. you have to look and see if you're moving with the times. i am the chair of the foreign affairs committee. the world is smaller than what it used to be. therefore there are different things you have to do today that you might have done differently 20 years ago. we have to look at these things and try to stay abreast. jonathan: let's talk about what you want to do today. are you looking forward to questioning? rep. meeks: i am looking to talk about whether or not there are any conflicts of interest, whether there was any harmful hedge fund practices, or as i said how social media is on our market and the public information, that is important.

the operation of trading apps like robin hood and the impact on retail investors, that becomes important, so i want to ask questions in that regard to see what those answers are. when i looked at robinhood, whether they have a liquidity problem or not, i know there was an issue that came up in this past december and it is important. using robinhood as an example, i like what they are trying to do in the sense they are trying to get people who are the little guys into the markets so they have an opportunity to get into the market and create wealth for themselves, to try to make sure we create wealth. at the same time i want to make sure they protect it. lisa: forgive me for breaking in, we just have about a minute left. some people have said robin hood could do their job better if settlement times were shorter. we live in a technological world

, so why should it take three days for basic traits to settle? perhaps two days or one day. this creates the gap that was a problem for robinhood. do you endorse spending the millions of dollars required to increase settlement times and decrease these gaps? rep. meeks: i am looking at it. sub have recommended we look at -- some have recommended we go to one day. that is something i want to have another area of questioning, another probe we can do. my ears are all open. i can make a determination in that regard. i'm not ruling anything out for anything in. i am here to learn. the only way you learn is by asking questions. jonathan: let's roll this in. can we catch up in a couple of days? i would love to do that. gregory meeks of new york. thank you. looking forward to the hearing later on. got a feel for the approach into this hearing. tom: i have to be honest, i come

in with preconceived conceptions i have to admit i am adjusting my tone on what we may see this afternoon. i do that with great respect for maxine waters. she is tough as nails at 82. she has a history of tough questioning. i have to admit, this may be eventful. jonathan: you know how this works. take deep breaths. there are people that know what they are talking about. the congressman is one. there'll be people that do not know what they are talking about. you know where i'm going with this. there will be very strange questions. tom: i'm not worried about rory kitty or whatever his name is, i'm talking about how this can growth of respond? -- how does ken griffith respond. i thought it would be a snooze fest there may be some substance. jonathan: the problem is politicians and lawmakers often

come in with preconceived ideas and they're not willing to change them. that is often the issue. tom: can we do a data check and save all three of us? jonathan: 3950 on the s&p 500. down .4%. initial jobless claims just round the corner. that means we have michael mckee (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that and more in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design to help you to maintain comfortable, correct form. that means better results in less time. you can do an uncomfortable, old-fashioned crunch or an aerotrainer super crunch. turn regular planks into turbo planks without getting down on the floor. and there are over 20 exercises to choose from. incredible for improving flexibility and perfect for enhancing yoga and pilates.

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jonathan: from new york city our audience worldwide, good morning to you all. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures down 19 points. we pull back half of 1%. the economic data dropping across the terminal. with us is michael mckee. michael: we are looking for the numbers as they come out. building permits up 10.4% on the month. good news in terms of a december building. housing starts dropped 6%. we have a trade off there. it looks like contractors think we are going to be building more houses but we will see smaller contribution to gdp in the first quarter because we see january numbers falling. looking at this quickly,

single-family housing starts, 12.2% above the rate in december. below the rate. i read that wrong. for multifamily dwellings, down 402,000 dollars. 2.3% decline in housing completion. everybody wants to know about jobless claims. jobless claims coming in at 861,000. tom's font hopes of a better number go by the board. last week revised update hundred 48,000. not only did we lose the seven handle on jobless claims, they go up to 848,000 for last week, and 861,000 for this week. still a lot of people without work. i want to mention a couple of other numbers. that is the philadelphia fed business outlook up to 23.1. the forecast was for a forecast -- was for a drop to 20, so it

is hanging in there. it is not great news. the employment index rises to 25.3 from 22.5. import prices were up 1.4%, much better than expected. we are watching that. we have seen a big rise in petroleum prices. with the dollar weakening, we have been importing inflation and that may have an impact down the road. i want to get back to one thing i want to mention before we go away. in terms of the data today, particularly jobless claims, watch for a huge drop next week. tom: why? michael: because nobody in texas, kansas, north dakota are getting out to file for claims. tom: we have a stasis, we have a moving average convergence just above 800,000. what portion of that is what we all observed witches restaurants, bars, that business

flat on its back? michael: a lot of this is. it is going to be the service industries that have done badly. people have been laid off. the question is to they drop out of the labor force and stop looking for work? we saw some of that happened last month and we will see when we get the new numbers whether or not that is the case. we are not going to see the fed do anything, we got the minutes yesterday, they are more optimistic about the way the economy looks in the second half of the year, but until people get back to work they will stay where they are. tom: i got a little bit of movement in the real yield but i will call it stasis. jonathan: 129.90 -- 1.2190 on tens. the labor market has been so difficult to read, read across jobs and the broader economy because of the fiscal stimulus effort. last year the dynamic was to see

unemployment surge, but disposable incomes build, largely off the back of the fiscal stimulus plan. mike might agree with this. claims the story for january, we had a lot of checks sent out to a lot of people and that is why you probably do not see that stack up with what happened with retail sales. michael: we are spending money the government is giving us, we being people out of work. that is going into staples much more than anything else. we did see some discretionary spending increase in january but i would not look for that to continue into february. tom: before we get to nathan sheets, we see adjustment to gdp, atlanta fedx 9.x%. you look at that as a one quarter statistic or can you extrapolate that to better gdp numbers? michael: i think everyone is extrapolating better forward gdp numbers as we get more people vaccinated and more people feel comfortable spending money and

maybe the service industry start to reopen, but i would not take the atlanta fed number literally because it is a snapshot in time and they raised it 4% yesterday after the strong retail sales numbers. we will get weaker data as we go through the rest of the quarter. nobody is building houses this month. there are no houses construction underway in texas. that will impact the data. tom: bloomberg consumer comfort at 9:45, michael mckee will have wisdom on that. nathan sheets is with us. brilliant reports on international economics. of course, pgim fixed income chief economist. thank you for being with us. have you adjusted your global outlook over better u.s., better u.k. data? nathan: over the last couple of months, absolutely. we have been marking up the outlook. i think that reflects the ongoing march of the vaccination

campaign, it reflects economic stimulus in the united states. quite frankly, i think we are learning through the pandemic that the underlying global economy is more resilient and flexible then we had supposed a year or so ago. the fact that many of us are working from home, and nevertheless were talking about when the economy was going to get back to trend, it is truly extraordinary. part of that is because of the stimulus. part of that is because we've been able to find new ways to produce and consume over the last year that are different and highlight the flexibility in the economy. lisa: jonathan was highlighting how we saw the unemployment rolls surge the last couple of months, but we did see incomes

also arise due to the checks people are getting. there is a question of who did it best? the u.s. allowed people to get fired and gave them supplemental income. in europe they kept people on the payrolls and funded those jobs. there is a question about which fosters the greatest amount of dynamism. can you weigh in on that debate? nathan: last summer i would have said it is the europeans. we have been able to bring a big chunk of those folks who lost their jobs back to work. we begin to use the word i did a minute ago, seeing the flexibility of the u.s. labor market. what our approach has allowed and will continue to allow is to the extent the post pandemic world requires sectoral rebalancing, it will be easier for labor to flow to those sectors that have more demand.

whereas in europe they have locked the labor in place. from the household side i think households have been pleased by the approach. then the question is what does it mean for the vibrance, resilience, and flexibility of europe's economy to respond to the world post pandemic. lisa: can you talk about american exceptionalism in a number? how does it translate to your expection for gdp growth and how has that changed in the past few weeks? nathan: i think, clearly, as we move into 2021, the economy is going to launch. this is going to be one of the most rapid years of gdp growth we have seen and i do expect that in that environment, we will see price pressures. i think there will be bottlenecks and shortages, and i think inflation is going to rise.

as i say all of that, the big question is what happens in 2022. to what extent does this increased demand and economic momentum carryforward? we have us move landing as the private economy rebounds next year, or is it a harder landing as a lot of the fiscal stimulus is taken away? jonathan: take us around the table with pgim. greg peters, mike collins. when you surround the table you talk about the economy and the bond market. what is the outcome? what is the central view? nathan: our debate is focused on this inflation issue. we are relatively comfortable that inflation will probably move up a bit and will come back down. the 10-year treasury yield is likely to follow a similar path.

where i think the big debate is, we are comfortable that is where we will end up. as we are along that path i think many of the markets may worry this is going to be permanent. the federal reserve, i think they will look through it. it is about the inflation outlook, the fed response, and what that means for treasury yields and credit. jonathan: fascinating. he just have to picture it. let's say the vaccine progress we have made holds. imagine this. inflation north of 2%, may be accelerating because of people re-engaging with the economy. gdp on course to have a six handle for the year end, and the fed saying we will sit it out, we will not do anything. tom: i go back to the short-term

rates we talked about, all these things nobody pays attention to, including me, and all of will filter into fed speech. all of the history of this is the same. there will be a sentence here, a sentence here. we will look at our bloomberg terminals on our phones and say what happened? it was somebody giving a speech in kansas city. jonathan: you can imagine them all on the same page. someone writing a single line everyone -- lisa: and everyone gets in a tizzy. nathan sheets says people think this will have a longer lasting effect. could there be more of a market disruption on the expectations, which raises interesting questions. jonathan: more to come. coming up the next hour, we count you down to the hearing on capitol hill. we do that with the interactive brokers chairmen. from new york city, good morning

to you all. this is bloomberg. karina: with the first word news, i am karina mitchell. the crisis that knocked out power to millions of texas is now in its fourth day. blackouts in the houston area may last a couple of more days while residents suffer subfreezing temperatures. texas has taken the extreme neri step of excluding national gas sales across state lines. some call that a violation of the u.s. constitution commerce clause. bloomberg has learned the bite administration is seeking taiwan's help in resolving a semiconductor shortage. taiwan is home to the largest semiconductor manufacturing industry in the world. -- has changed his mind and the precious metal. he now considers bitcoin a

better trade. the chief of double-blind capital has turned neutral on gold and the u.s. dollar. he says bitcoin may be the "stimulus asset." the cryptocurrency is at all-time high, breaking through the 52,000 mark. the latest funding by space-x values elon musk's company at $74 billion. investors put in $850 million led by sequoia capital. sequoia has now invested more than $600 billion into the company. mcdonald's will tie 50% of executive bonuses to meeting targets, including diversity and inclusion, plus the chain begin disclosing data on the racial makeup of its workforce. major steps by one of the largest u.s. companies to better reflect the population. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

i am karina mitchell. much more to come ahead. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> all over the nation there is huge storms that are now causing

delays in shipment. i have been updated on the fact we do expect vaccine to be delayed, shipping for vaccine we were expecting by yesterday and today to be delayed. that means we will have to hold back appointments new yorkers need because the vaccine is not arriving. tom: good morning. "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan ferro preparing for the 9:00 open to get the hearings in washington. futures -26. yields a little bit higher. lisa: the key question is at what point it starts to bleed into equity assets, the prices, the idea you can start getting less negative real yields in an appetite for risk gets more diminished. tom: we will see. there is a high contact sport. maybe it is not what tom brady knows in football. it may be the new york city mayoral race, and particularly

for the democratic candidate. gregory meeks, the congressman from jfk airport very much a democratic district, but across the city that pervades. art chang joins us, a new york city mayoral candidate. i have to get to the immediate news, which is the ballot battle to get the campaign started. give us an update on how challenging it is to be a democratic mayoral candidate and get to that physical ballot. art: thank you so much for that question. it is a very tough situation. there are over 40 people running in this race. that means there are a lot of confusion caused by voters. there is a natural gravitation towards the folks who have better name brand recognition. there are also built-in advantages incumbents have. scott stringer and eric adams

are able to roll over their previous campaign funds. andrew yang is able to do that as well. we are seeing folks with real advantages coming in. for some of us who do not have, who are first-time candidates and do not have the brand-name recognition, there are challenging roads ahead. it is also a pregnant moment, because i do not think the city is working for anyone. i have never seen such agreement on that fact across any type of voter. it will be super important to figure out how people choose. there will be clear choices. do we want to have an incremental change in response to cobit and things like that trying to go back -- to cobit, trying to go back -- to covid, trying to go back to the way it was, or we dig -- or do we go forward with more fairness and equity? who is the right person to do that? visit someone who openly has a background in a particular

industry or is it someone who will be hands-on doing the work? we have to break down, some candidates will break out, some will form alliances, we have ranked choice voting. voters will going to the booth picking five people come and we have already seen some of the candidates start to lineup and test number two or number three and we will see more of that. it is a super interesting race. lisa: it is a super interesting race at a super interesting time for new york city given the pandemic and the hit to the economy. there is a question, and as a former jp morgan executive yourself, there is a question of how important the financial base is to the city, especially as there are reports of jobs leaving the city because of the high tax rates and going to florida, among other places. how big of a concern is this for you as you pledge to do things like universal childcare, things that cost money? art: it is definitely a concern. you never like to see the city

you love lose jobs, but the fact is the largest companies in the city had a declining share of employment over the past 10 years. what we have seen is the small business sector has amounted to 50% of employment pre-cobit and that was growing. 100% of the growth in employment in new york city came from the small business sector. considering new york city has a gdp in the top 13 of countries if we are treated as a separate country, there is significant financial wait here. it is not coming just from the financial sector, it is coming from other places. jp morgan and other financial companies, citi and goldman have been moving people to lower cost to restrictions. that was a move already happening pre-covid. jonathan: -- lisa: are you concerned about the idea of a wasteland in midtown or a sea of

empty office buildings that remain empty as people are able to come back to work because of changed habits? art: absolutely. the changed habits, there are two sides to that. there are empty offices. we need to address that. it calls for a re-imagination of midtown. maybe it is more of a mixed use place. maybe those offices can convert into apartments and condos and more retail and places may be where artists and entertainment companies can perform and practice. tom: we are running out of time and the question is so important. you were knee-deep in the queens west development project providing serious expertise. amazon was also knee-deep in that. they said are you kidding me and they got out of dodge and moved west to manhattan. what did you learn from that experience that will help you as mayor? art: a few lessons.

if you're trying to do a deal like that it has to be fully transparent. it wasn't not. details emerged after the deal was scuttled that raised troubling questions about tax benefits. the second was the question of budget. he had one of the largest companies play no income taxes and getting a subsidy to be in new york city. it was not a question of new york city or not -- or not new york city. they wound up spending a billion dollars on the lord & taylor building, they are doubling down in new york. hindsight is 2020. i think it was a good move not to through with the deal. tom: art chang, we have to leave it there. he has a mayoral candidate of the democratic persuasion in new york city. what did you learn? that was interesting. lisa: i think this is an interesting and dynamic economy.

there are a lot of people running and it is a pivotal time for the city. you think i'm going to run? i am going to write a book. i promise i will donate the proceeds. tom: what a crowded field. they have the rank thing going. lisa: that is key. the idea if you do not vote for one person come if you like somebody and rank them first, you can put a second candidate who might be more likely to win and you are not throwing away your vote. it is a key change in the voting procedure other places are looking at. tom: looking at that across many other localities and nations as well. on the data front, we deteriorate. the vix goes at 1.79 points. a 23 handle on the vix gets my attention. we've been looking at oil, $65 a barrel rounded up. on brent, rounded down, $61 a

barrel. stay with us on radio and tv. "balance of power" looking forward to the gamestop hearings. stay with us. good morning. ♪

jonathan: from new york city to our audience worldwide, good morning. the countdown to the opening starts now. equity futures holding onto 3900 and up seven tenths of 1%. the reddit revolution -- >> those congressional hearings will be incredible. >> something to look at. >> gamestop, gamestop. >> the oxygen sucked out of the market. >> this is a paradigm shift. >> is retail investors got organized. >> they got into trading. >> things are happening that no regulators expected. >> we will see a trend for more regulation. jonathan: kevin cirilli and sarah, for you down in d.c., is this just the theater or is this substance? kevin: