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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  February 19, 2021 4:00am-5:00am EST

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>> i apologize, and i am not going to say that robinhood did everything perfect. >> is it possible that the fact that you did not simply manage your own store? >> i am not an accountant, and institutional investment, nor am i a hedge fund. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance: early edition," with francine lacqua. francine: welcome to "bloomberg surveillance: early edition." it is friday, the 19th of
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february. i am francine lacqua in london. here is what is coming up on today's program, the gamestop frenzy heard in a five-hour hearing. robinhood ceo and cofounder vlad tenev takes most of the heat. what about the countries who have yet to vaccinate a single person? we will talk about that shortly. good morning, everyone. we have a bit of the data out of the eurozone, but we have a bit of data out of the u.k. ugly readings but despite the pound actually climbing above $1.43 for the first time since april 2018. this has much to do with the vaccination story, and the people above 40 will be vaccinated in the next two or three months, so the u.k. clearly planning ahead when it comes to vaccinations. europe, pmi's just breaking across the bloomberg terminal.
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let's get straight to our dani burger, who has the latest. what are you seeing? dani: a little diversions as they target the pandemic between services and manufacturing. looking at euro area. pmi, this one coming in slightly better than expected. when it comes to services, the disappointments here, 45.9 was the expectation, came in at 44.7. then a beat for manufacturing for the euro area as well at 57, was 54. you can see this reflected in the german pmi, which we got earlier in the day, and the french pmi's as well. it is a weak manufacturing -- it is a weak service sector and strong manufacturing sector. it had a service disruption for semiconductors, especially to automakers, so we have seen a higher risk to manufacturing come about for now, holding up
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strong, acting as a counterweight to the weaker services, francine. francine: we have seen many signs of the price pressures that we see in the u.s. in the euro area? dani: we do get u.s. pmi today, but when it comes to price pressure, it is all about the u.s. that is where the game is at the moment. we have seen some indications that investors are looking at price pressure in the euro area. last week, we had the 10-year turn positive for the first time in a few months, but when you look at the spread between breakevens in the u.s. and germany, germany is at a record low. so any signs of pick up, even though we do see manufacturing, for example, do better today, it does not really seem like it is sticking around. it does not seem to be any lasting price pleasures. to makes -- price pressures. it makes sense when you consider the vaccine rollout and
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shutdowns across the region. francine: speaking of shutdowns, this has been the big market story of the week, the texas oil package slowly restarting our markets reacting -- slowly restarting. how are markets reacting? dani: the biden administration discussing possibly meeting with iran, so that of course brings the picture of exports from the persian gulf nation in as well. heating like oil features lower as well, so some of that pressure being taken off. but let's be clear, the energy crisis is still here. it will take a while to get every thing back on. the goldman sachs say they think this will be a fleeting price issue, that demand loss is offset right now, so we will see a small and transitory impact to the market, francine. francine: danny, thank you so much, dani burger with a roundof the week's top market -- roundup of the week's top market reads.
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some countries have yet to begin the vaccine rollout. we will be eating with emerging-market specialist mark mobius. he is up next, and this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg. ♪
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>> hi am not an institutional investor, nor am i a hedge fund. >> we have had no results in trading in gamestop. >> melvin capital had no involvement in those decisions. >> american resources played an
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important role in our capital markets. >> investors who opened an account for the first time in 2020 were younger, had more income, and were more racially diverse. >> i like the stocks. i am as bullish as i have ever been on a potential turnaround in gamestop, and i remain invested in the company. thank you. cheers, everyone. francine: the key players testifying before congress. stay with "surveillance: early edition," because at half past, we will talk more about the gamestop hearing. now let's get to the bloomberg first word news with laura wright. hi, laura. laura: good morning, francine. president trump quit backing in 2018 and a step toward easing tensions that have raised it -- risen steadily over the past four years. a source tells bloomberg knows it is not a concession to iran,
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but concessions are common sense. the u.s. is likely to hold off any sources over nord stream 2. the biden administration is looking to halt the project but does not want to antagonize a key european ally. only a small number of sanctions linked to russia. nasa is celebrating the landing of perseverance landing on mars, the most sophisticated robot to get to the red planet. it is the trickiest landing nasa has ever attempted. the rover also carries on genuity, which will attempt to fly on another planet. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg @quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am laura wright. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: laura, thank you so much. now, the u.s. is set to supercharge its vaccine rollout. analysis by bloomberg shows
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vaccines in america is set to double in the coming weeks, allowing a broad expansion of doses around the country. by june, how data team shows 400 million shots a day. the outlook of course is completely different and emerging markets. according to unicef, 100 30 countries have still not administered a single dose of coronavirus taxing that is 2.5 billion people, mostly concentrated in poorer parts of the world. south africa and brazil have thrown doubt on the efficacy of the vaccine itself. joining us to discuss all this is mark mobius, mobius capital partners founder. mark, thank you for joining us, as always. there's a lot of discussions about inflation we want to get to your outlying calls. but overall, how worried are you about the emerging-market countries that do not have access to the vaccine? mark: i am not worried at all, for a number of reasons. first of all, one of the amazing
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developments is the fact that in india, for example, despite the fact that most people are not vaccinated, the number of cases is going down. so i think it may be because it is a relatively young population, and maybe they have developed resistance. it is a very interesting development. in other words, there is no need for everyone to be vaccinated and in fact no need for the majority of people to be activated in many countries. francine: that is definitely not the call from many other analysts we were speaking to, mark. do you still likely frontier markets, given what you have just said? where do you see the best value for investors to go into right now? mark: right now, if you look at our portfolio, you will see india is at the top of the list, followed by taiwan, korea. we have some investors in china. then we are in turkey, south africa, brazil. those are the key countries that we are in now.
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and i believe, going forward, a lot of these will be very interesting. the problem with these markets is liquidity, but otherwise, you know, we have one investment in kenya, and we expect to do more in frontier markets. francine: mark, i also want to, you know, .2 goldman sachs. a regular guest on "surveillance " says it should be a low confluence deal, it is e.m. overweight. do you worry about dollar dynamics and what happens with curves and what happens in emerging markets? mark: it is interesting to see how they perform. since march of last year, we are up 84%, and some portfolios are even better than that. going forward, yes, there will be concerns about normal issues,
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currencies, and so forth, but many of these emerging markets, surprisingly, countries like iran and south africa, appreciate. i think we have to look at, of course, interest rates. if interest rates go up dramatically, then markets generally will be in bad shape, but if you look at the generalization numbers, we are not too worried about that. in fact, in my new book, "the inflation myth," i basically say that the inflation numbers are erroneous and should not be relied upon, so we are in a situation, we are the year of the ox in chinese, which is a bullish environment. i think we are in pretty good shape for further bullish news going forward. francine: mark, are you saying that we are reading inflation wrong, or do you think it will be here and it will be inflation
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that will force central banks to act? mark: correct. central banks are relying on erroneous cpi and other inflation measures, as i point out in the book. and it is crazy for them to be relying on these numbers, and even insinuated movement when there is a .5% change. it does not make sense. the other thing i point out is that prices are rising because of valuation, so it is pretty interesting to see how a young generation of people are relying more and more on bitcoin and some of these other currencies. the currencies that are fixed in terms of the amount that can be generated, so if that is the case, then the home movement is toward a more stable kind of currency, and the printing press is now running overtime. so it will be a really interesting development. we are in exciting times when it comes to currencies. francine: you are a, you know,
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bull when it comes to stocks and the currencies. is it part of a bubble that burst this year? mark: of course there are a lot of bubbles i can burst this year because of the kind of liquidity that we have and the kind of retail that comes in, robinhood and other platforms, who we know are locked down and don't have much time to do anything else except look at their screen. so i think that is part of the issue, and that inflates a number of companies. but people are telling people, look, you can keep your head in the clouds but keep your feet in the ground, and if you are looking at good, solid companies, balance sheets, you should be good. francine: but what are you suggesting? that retail investors don't understand the pitfalls? that trading for retail traders and robinhood -- what was your main take away from the hearings yesterday? mark: well, i think the main
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thing is, yes, there are a number of people that are not as informed, and it has paid off for many of these people. look at their numbers of these companies. many of them will regret having done so. there are others there -- quite a number of young people are very intelligent, very knowledgeable, and they will be doing the right thing. they will be looking at the companies' balance sheets, savings. but my take away from the hearings -- i did not hear all of the details of the hearings -- but my take away is, hopefully, at the end of the day, they don't crack down the retail market. that platforms like robin hood can continue and operate, because it gives people an opportunity to participate in the market. the only way you will get people to learn is by having the experience of failed -- in some cases -- and engaged in some
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others. francine: mark, thank you so much. we will have more on gamestop in the hearing, and mark mobius of mobius capital stays with us. later on in the program, we will also speak with sam fa zeli of bloomberg intelligence. he has a new opinion piece out, and that is shortly after 930 london time -- 9:30 a.m. london time. the car company moves from his personal view, and we will discuss bitcoin with mark mobius as well. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪
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romaine: i am surprised that elon is so gung ho on bitcoin. but he can like bitcoin for any reason he likes, and i strongly believe he is not really associated with it in any way. the fact that he says i love "bitcoin," he is allowed to like it personally. francine: the chief executive of the world's largest crypto currency volume speaking conclusively to bloomberg about elon musk's interest in cryptocurrencies. elon musk spoke to our interview with a tweet, saying "tesla's
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action is not directly reflective of my opinions are having some bitcoin, which is simply a less dumb form of liquidity than cash, it is adventurous enough for an s&p 500 company." mark mobius of mobius capital is still with us. aside from bitcoin, i know you were not a fan. now it seems to be adopted more by main street, wall street, has it changed your view? mark: no, that hasn't. personally, i like to invest in gold and that kind of currency. i can understand where tesla is coming from in looking at bitcoin and some of these other cryptocurrencies, and the mayor fact that there is a limit to the amount that can be produced, it gives bitcoin an aura of viability, which is important. what is interesting about the generation coming to the market,
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you will find that they have cryptocurrencies, and, look, currencies, no matter where you are coming as a matter of belief. we believe in the dollar in the euro because we can spend it, we can buy things with it. and we believe it will work at least for the foreseeable future. but at the end of the day, you have to look at the number of people who believe in it and think it is special. the bottom line will be how to convert the currency into dollars and euros and whether governments will began to accept it as payment. francine: do you think you will be buying bitcoins in the next year? mark: no, i probably will not be. i will be buying stocks and i will be buying gold rather than buying bitcoin. francine: that was a viewer question, so thank you to the viewer, send us your questions.
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the viewer says he agrees with you on your analysis, but he also says the fed, at least part of the cause, cannot comment on the fed buying the market, which is your department. mark: that is a very important question, and if you look at the example of japan, you can see the central bank there, in their frustration and not getting inflation up based on actually buying stocks in the japanese stock market, so i would add that if the situation in america gets to the point where economic growth is not moving at all, you can see the fed actually buying into the market. who knows? so this is something we need to be aware of, that possibility. francine: mark, does that mean we could see a move by the fed to buy stocks, like we see in japan? mark: exactly.
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i think it is necessary in order to get inflation up. they may just start doing that. in japan, they were pushing on a string. it did not work. but it will be interesting to see how the fed reacts going forward. but assuming that you have a lack of growth in the country. francine: if we go back to what you are expecting for inflation, you touched on bubbles, what do you think is the biggest mistake that people can buy right now? mark: i think the biggest mistake that people can make now is to not get involved with stocks, the good, solid stocks that are earning money on their own balance sheets. because at the end of the day, the dollar is going to devalue, as do all other currencies in the world come as i point out in my book. what we are calling inflation is actually currency devaluation. in order to protect yourself against that, you have got to be exposed to companies that are
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adjusting their prices to the devaluation of the currency, so it is very important for people to be involved in stocks. but i must warned them that it must be solid earnings companies that are going to be going forward in the next generation and growing in line with the economy. francine: great, thank you so much. mark mobius, mobius capital partners founder. coming up, bloomberg opinion's sam fazeli says give some credit. he is a bit of an expert, especially when it comes to vaccines and of course trials of data. sam fazeli is coming up shortly. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: welcome to "bloomberg surveillance: early edition," on this friday, february 19. i'm francine lacqua in london, and here's what's coming up on today's program. u.s. lawmakers grill the key players in the gamestop frenzy. in the five-hour hearing, the robinhood chief executive, vlad tenev, takes most of the heat. a vaccine surge is coming. bloomberg analysis finds that america's rollout is about to get a big boost. and is there life in mars? a rover and lands on the red planet. engineers say the robot is in good shape. so we have quite a lot of data today. we had some data out of the u.k. in terms of retail sales. that is pretty much expected because of the lockdown and the third lockdown we are living through in the u.k. we are also getting pmi figures. we are talking to dani burger, the difference between manufacturing and services. manufacturing a bit better-than-expected for february.
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services pmi much better than expected, rising to 49 point seven instead of the 42 forecast. anything below 50 still indicates a contraction. you can see pound touching 1.40. it touch that about 32 minutes, currently holding onto that. yesterday's financial services hearing over the gamestop hearing. lawmakers pressed firms on whether they are profiting at the expense of retail investors and complaining that they got few satisfying answers. joining us for more is dani burger. it was pretty entertaining, a lot of people commenting on getting the popcorn out. what were the big sticking points for lawmakers? dani: a huge range. that is why it was so entertaining. some people ask questions that frankly were bit that were a bit confusing. one people that one person asked
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why robinhood was called robinhood. some lawmakers were able to venture into more wonky territory. but overall the since that we got was that it was a serious event and that they felt they needed to do something about it. whether that was related to the volatility around gamestop is a different question. we did not -- we did not get that exactly in those few days. has trading become gamified because of firms like roma hood -- by robinhood? at the end of the day, hedge funds have the time, the money compared to a retail investor. shortselling was also under the microscope as well, calls for more transparency. it is one of those things that were there was more transparency on a short. much of a difference would that have made? i cannot imagine it would have prevented the gamestop situation
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from happening. if anything, it could have fueled and more. francine: on one side, a lot of congressmen were angry that he did not do more to flag on the pops investors, and that he shut them out. is he going to do any changes that robinhood? dani: definitely he is painted as the victim in some regards. in terms of changes was the apology he issued. he said he was sorry, that robinhood needs to do better, they are focused on changing and being better as well. when asked what was he apologizing for, he said i admit to always improving, so not a apology or flat out what it is for. but we are committed to making sure we are improved from this, one of the tense moments came from when one lawmaker representative from illinois said let's see what happens when you call robinhood, and when you call you just a prerecorded message directing users to robinhood's website. the customer service angle -- that was hammered down as an
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issue that robinhood needs to fix. francine: the other part of the show, "i'm not a cat." have always wanted to say that. dani: he did not get a lot of questioning. he had his opening statement that he prepare that i thought was almost touching. he talked about how the millions he has made is really great for his family. at one point he said do you like gamestop, would you buy it now? he said, yes, i'm a buyer. he said earlier he did not look like this. he did have that chair behind him, no cigar. he also did not have his signature bandana. he did not done it for the hearing. francine: it was perfectly placed. i love that. it was actually quite funny. dani burger, thank you so much
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for the update of the hearings that had us glued to our television screens yesterday. let's get to first word news with laura wright. laura: iran says the u.s. will have to lift sanctions before he will agree to talk. it comes as the biden administration is trying to ease tensions with the islamic republic to find a diplomatic way forward. the white house wants to return to the nuclear deal that president trump quit in 2018. the european central bank is strongly considering opposing climate risks in its bond buying program. sources tell bloomberg it will focus on collecting data to achieve that. ecb policy makers discussed the issue on wednesday. no official comment yet. senator ted cruz is back in texas after facing harsh criticism for flying to cancun, sicko, while his state faced widespread power outages and
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energy crisis. adding that the reason was because his children were cold and he was trying to be a dad. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, this is bloomberg. francine? francine: today there is a great opinion piece from the director of research and bloomberg intelligence sam fazeli. in this piece, and you can read it on your terminal or on the website. he says that despite the political stumbles throughout the pandemic, there is a lot to be admired. if you are a terminal user, you can go to open for an opinion. opin-go. sam, i feel like the fact that
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britain got the vaccine rollout right is at least priced into the market. why do you think they are not getting enough credit? sam: thank you for the kind words you said. it is less about whether they are getting credit or not. there good at being critical that the country has. but with the totality of what is going on in the u.k., the recovery trial, the experimental vaccine rollout -- i have to say that because i'm still not 100% sure that anybody will see the efficacy of the data in the general population, at least one dose and then the next 12 weeks later strategy. and then genomics -- a lot of things the u.k. has been doing has been exemplary. francine: i was quite taken by some of the vaccine rollout, and
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we expect double doses. i think in the u.s. in the next couple of months. but with anthony fauci saying despite that he does not see anyone returning to normal before christmas. how do you see this panning out? a lot of people want to figure out what the 10 to 12 months -- what the next 10 to 12 months will bring. sam: let's put aside the discussion about the variants. with what we have already and the speed with which vaccinations are happening. if you really want to reduce the number of hospitalizations, you should be able to see that relatively early on, hopefully in the second quarter in the united states, as risk population is mostly vaccinated by then, but of course what we don't want to do is to let the virus start spreading rapidly again, to people who are not vaccinated as they are still exposed. and even those who are vaccinated, today are about 9 --
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they are about 90% effective. you still have that 1 who are at risk of catching infection, and that will lead to more mutation in the virus. we have to stick to the third quarter, the quarter that we should start seeing some semblance of normality. francine: when you look at the rollout in some of the developing countries, we have this alliance with france, also the u.k. announcing that they will give some surplus to developing countries that need some of the vaccines. at 130 countries, has not administered a single shot. what does the vaccination lead to? sam: so nationalism or not, i mean, what we really want to see is a significant effort, a much more magnified effort in trying to get vaccines into those countries, too. you know, vaccinations just in
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the u.k. and the united states are not going to be enough to get rid of this or control this pandemic. remember, these variants can occur anywhere, where there are infections running at high rates, so it is absolutely crucial that we get this. i'm a little bit worried that all this negativity, which i believe is actually misplaced, with the astrazeneca vaccine, which has the highest number of doses potentially available in 2021, is going to backfire. i think countries and politicians have to be a bit more careful with how they comment and refer to the vaccine and the issues still with it, which a lot of times, in my view, are misplaced. francine: what do you make of the variants? how many new variants can we have come and how dangerous is it that we are vaccinating when the virus is still so prominent around the world? sam: google has a way of
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checking the numbers, and one of those is to try to calculate this one with regards to the number of potential variants. you have four nucleotides in this virus come and 30,000 nucleotides. we cannot calculate that. will we get that many variants? no. the worst one seems to be the very end that was first observed in south africa. that is the one we have to focus on today. but we will continue to see more. francine: sam fazeli, who covers vaccinations and pharmaceuticals for us for bloomberg intelligence. if you want to read his opinion piece, type opin on your bloomberg terminal. coming up, the recovery plan and
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why so many want the government to get it right now. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance: early edition." i'm francine lacqua here in london. the italian prime minister, mario draghi, wins support for his economic priorities in parliament. people focus on e.u. integration and speeding up italy's vaccination campaign. he will also take part in his first g7 meeting today. joining us to discuss is our guest.
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thank you so much for joining us. when you look at what mario draghi has to do, it is no small feat. but apart from rebuilding italy, can he rebuild europe because of his past job as ecb president? >> absolutely, and that is probably the key question, and i think where we can see the senate having someone like mario draghi as the prime minister of italy is not only in improving the economic outlook for the country and showing that the money from that generation was spent well, but also in driving very important discussions coming up in europe, on the reform of the rule assessing for the u.s. in general and on probably pushing forward for the integration especially in terms of bringing the first fiscal
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integration of the european levels, transitioning it into something that is more similar to a permanent federal -- there is someone who can do that, mario draghi is the person. francine: what is his main challenge? is it to make sure that the political parties don't start rallying again in italy so that there is a domestic problem, or is it the vaccination rollout and things that are outside of his control because it is the e.u. that is in charge? silvia: it is really -- sorry, that is my cat. the pleasure of working from home. it is a mixture of things. the emergency is the vaccination plan. that is outside of the control of the government. the constraints that we all know about for european countries. the rollout is essential for the recovery as well. when it comes to the government, this is a very different
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situation from the previous government that we remember, the monte government. this government does not need to cap spending, this government needs to spend a lot of money. which is something italy is not very good at doing. performance in spending structural funds from europe or even with domestic public investment, a lot of these are not being very optimistic about this. this is definitely going to be a priority, but then it is my view that the biggest part will be to make sure that we put those amazing reforms that ensure a hall -- a high multiplier for spending will be done, and this is where previous governments, regardless of whether they were fully democratic or fully political, then there are those expectations. francine: this could be millions of jobs lost, with
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restructuring, cut into the bureaucracy. when do we know if mario draghi can achieve it, or you feel he can survive it? silvia: i think the first step will be to see what the revision of the national recovery and the plan will be, so there is a document, and by the previous government, with a number of spending priorities and allocations. but that document was not very explicit about the reform, also not very explicit about the government's understanding, but those two issues were very much addressed in the previous government's plan. this is where the new government plans to make a difference. this is a very smart government compared to montes's government, and the key ministries that are
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-- with the success of our spending plan, a very good track record in the private sector for specific areas that they are going to be dealing with, but a lot of political ministries and other positions may be less relevant, and they will ensure that the party has enough skin in the game to provide for the political backing that this government needs to have to implement. francine: do you see a more integrated europe, or do we need to see much more convergence, first of all, amongst the countries? silvia: if you look at the period following 2010, between 2010 and the crisis, there has
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been a lot of good economic outlook between our countries unilaterally. all the countries that went through programs. they really converged naturally -- nationally, and the -- this is how lasting a debate. when covid hit, everybody focused on that. but the convergence has happened to a large degree, and this is probably why this is the time when discussing integration is possible. then there is obviously the big question of italy. italy did not go through a period of adjustment, so in a way, today the country remains an outlier, the success of this one, italy and ownership, the one element that i think will determine where european integration will be moving in
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the next five years. francine: silvia, thank you so much for joining us. silvia merler. i was hoping for a cat cameo, but she will have to send it on social media. coming up, is there life on mars? that question might finally be answered as a rover is successfully landed on the red planet. i also need to get my pronunciation of david bowie corrected. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> confirmed touchdown. we have landed on mars. francine: images of the team at nasa celebrating the success of a new rover landing on mars. the engineers at the u.s. space agency saying the robot is in
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great shape. joining us now is alex webb. i know you love space, you have been looking at this mission, it has captivated the imagination of so many people. what is the exact aim of this mission? >> is their life on mars, essentially, or was there life on mars? they landed in a crater which millions of years ago was in fact a lake. the intention is to establish whet it created life or at some stage in the past. when we talk about life, we are thinking about sort of single cell organisms rather than walking, talking martians. francine: thank you so much, alex web covering that. this is been a five-year legal fight over the employment status
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of the drivers of uber. this is from e u.k., it has gone through all of the courts up to the very top ones, and basically uber has lost a top ruling on the drivers employment status. that means they have -- with that of course there are rights that google will have to make their statement. i believe that this is probably the main judge involved, but again, uber technologies lost a ruling from the u.k.'s top court. that basically means that their business model will be different because they now have employees. bloomberg surveillance, early addition, starts in the next hour. with matt miller and kailey leinz. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vlad: i apologize, and i'm not going to say that robinhood did everything perfect. rep. ocasio-cortez: mr. tenev, isn't it possible that the issue is not clearinghouses, but the fact that you simply didn't manage your own book? keith: i'm not a cat, i am not an institutional investor, nor am i a hedge fund. announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance: early edition," with francine lacqua. matt miller, and kailey leinz. live from london, i am francine lacqua, with matt miller and kailey leinz. these are the top stories we are following today. u.s. lawmakers grill the key players in the gamestop frenzy. in the five-hour hearing, the robinhood chief executive, vlad tenev, takes most of the heat. a vaccine surge is coming. bloomberg analysis finds that america's rollout is about to get a big boost. but what about those left behind? welcome to bloomberg surveillance, the early edition. president joe biden is

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