vlad: i apologize, and i'm not going to say that robinhood did everything perfect. rep. ocasio-cortez: mr. tenev, isn't it possible that the issue is not clearinghouses, but the fact that you simply didn't manage your own book? keith: i'm not a cat, i am not an institutional investor, nor am i a hedge fund. announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance: early edition," with francine lacqua. matt miller, and kailey leinz. live from london, i am francine lacqua, with matt miller and kailey leinz. these are the top stories we are following today. u.s. lawmakers grill the key players in the gamestop frenzy. in the five-hour hearing, the robinhood chief executive, vlad tenev, takes most of the heat. a vaccine surge is coming. bloomberg analysis finds that america's rollout is about to get a big boost. but what about those left behind? welcome to bloomberg surveillance, the early edition. president joe biden is ditching

president trump's america first approach. he will portray collective action as essential. we are getting headlines crossing the bloomberg terminal, wanting to discuss iran, russia, afghanistan. interesting to have some of his thoughts on china, saying he doesn't want competition, or he wants competition but not confrontation. although we have been hearing that this administration could be just as hard in substance, if not in tone, with china. matt: to be fair, the wheels are already turning in terms of independent -- independence militarily here. over the last four years, europe was told time and time again it is time to vote on your big boy pants and start defending yourself. you have to start taking part in your own defense, and they have taken that to heart and will be doing that. even if joe biden wants to play

more together, i think the europeans have learned an important lesson here that they need to defend themselves to some extent. that is already starting to happen. francine: it was interesting yesterday to hear joe biden talk about the iranian nuclear deal to say that he is ready to negotiate, but as part of his campaign, he doesn't know whether terror on will go to the table or not. kailey, i don't know if -- whether tehran will go to the table or not. kailey: the friday session getting a little more exciting. we are now actually positive on the s&p 500 and nasdaq futures, the did tune of about .25 2.3%. -- .25 to .3%. the energy crisis, the easing

energy crisis in texas is also a factor. the issue now is not so much an issue of supply, that is starting to come back. but refineries are still down and could take weeks to come back online. supply -- may -- demand may be more of an issue. that means any impact on the oil prices going to be small and quite transitory. you're still seeing natural gas futures up .4% after a selloff of 4% yesterday. another story we have been watching closely is what is happening in the bond market. that reflation trade pushing yields higher over the past five days, 10-year treasury yield up nine basis points. on .3% is where we sit, and leading to a steeper curve, 153 points separates the sites from the 30 year yield. sitting at 2.17%. at the same time, real yields

creeping higher. still negative, but if those continue to climb higher, we could eventually start seeing that wave on regular assets. what are you watching? matt: i'll tell you what, i'm watching 10 year breakevens as well. you have the 10 year there. i would say we maybe want to put of the five-year. if the 10 year breakeven coming down, you might notice that the five-year is creeping up, 2.32 in the u.s. i'm looking at comparison in the 10 year rate given's between the u.s. and germany, and you see the same pictures pretty much if you look at the other durations. it continues to come down. right now it is at basically all-time low, because there is so little inflation expectation in germany. we have a 10-year breakeven here, and just about 1%, five year breakevens at 0.88.

they are drastically different numbers. germans can expect -- and of course germans hate inflation pretty much anyone else -- pre-much more than anyone else in the world. francine: germans have a very long emery about inflationary pressures from 20 or 30 years ago. james athey joins out this morning. investment -- director at aberdeen investment. what are the riskier assets? james: i think kailey made the right point there, which is the young's are starting to have an impact on real yields. we saw that as a long and of the curve, 30 year yields rising. it is having an impact on 10-year, and if selloff continues, you would ultimately expected to work its way down the curve.

believing buying equities at any prices is still a long-term investment strategy, this notion that yields or real yields will stay very low and are supported forever and they can use ridiculously low discount rates to generate high pd's for those equity prices. that assumption is being challenged at the moment, and ultimately it is the market challenging the results. if this is successful, it will result in its own destruction unless the fed is set to ease into a strengthening economy. francine: at the same time, we had jobless claims that are worse than expected, so it underlines the fragility of the economy. doing need more vaccinations to understand what we really ought to do? james: i would like to agree with you strongly that that is what we should be doing, but this is not a market that particularly cares about stark

reality. the time horizon that this market is prepared to use is one which is expressly chosen to justify pre-existing views. if the vaccination program is a slow rollout, if virus mutations occur, which they have, then where looking six months into the future or nine months into the future. it will be good then and we can carry on with this trade. i strongly show the observation that underneath all these market moves, we have incredibly fragile, incredibly unhealthy, and incredibly scarred economies, which really left to their own devices would be incredibly prone to -- matt: i was talking to one of your colleagues earlier, steven major from hsbc, and he says he sees a lot of red flags in the bond market, especially at the very short end, such negative nominal rates. he says it signals to him that something is bubbling under the surface. do you agree?

james: absolutely. steven major and i have probably shared views on the bond market more often then we have disagreed. unfortunately, being a bond guy, you are accused of bearishness rather than bullishness. i think the bond market is better at sniffing out what is truly going on under the hood and some of the risk facing markets. i think actually what is driving bond yields high really is technical flow, momentum play, systematic flow, on a positioning purge. i don't think this is a reassessment. ultimately the negative real yields are telling you that there is weakness out there. matt: what are the bond market specifically worried about? you talk about the underlying weakness in the economies, and yet we see risk assets just continuing to rise. are they telling us that may be a bubble is about to burst?

james: that is difficult. i think the bond market, if it genuinely saw that there was a bubble about to burst, we would see nominal yields rising in the way that they have done in the last few days. the bond market is worried about inflation. as a fixed-income investor, certainly one is prevailing very low yields, in some cases ridiculously low yields, even with a small dose of inflation detrimental to your real yield return. and what we are seeing in the u.s., we are seeing policy acting and speaking in quite an irresponsible something matter -- manner, and historically that has been a concern for bonds. bond vigilantes have been crushed. the fed at the moment has been talking -- has not been talking about doing much. kailey: what about the dollar? the prevailing narrative, the

consensus is dollar weakness in 2021, but in theory, higher treasury yields could boost demand for the dollar. what is your take on that? james: i agree, kailey. my view from the back end of last year to this year is that asset was not particularly robust and not a very stable equilibrium, at least in part, not largely because of the dynamic. the talk -- the fact that you talk about a u.s. idiosyncratic growth shock in the world of meager growth, certainly meager bond yields, and that pushes u.s. equities up and outperforms global equities, and that pushes treasury yields up. treasuries underperforming, and somehow that would be dollar negative. there are not many if any periods of history where that has been the case. i think the tailwind of the dollar, the headwind of the dollar bears are ahead at this point because it does not look like -- now that exceptionalism,

u.s. exceptionalism is a cliche come ultimately the dollar thinks the market should still go down. thinking about inflation dynamics. francine: thank you so much, james athey stays with us. we are getting breaking news out of china. china may ban some of the rare earth technology exports on security concerns, but throughout the week we were looking at some of the press reports out there that china was looking at possibly targeting rare earth experts to hobble the defense industry. we will see where u.s.-china trade relations are, and we will look at what that means for rare earth and some of the things where rare it is going to -- where rare earth is going to. coming up, mohamed el-erian. that interview at 9:00 a.m. in new york, 2:00 p.m. in london, and this is bloomberg. ♪

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francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance: early edition." over the last couple of minutes, breaking news. we understand that china may have some rare earth technology exports on security concerns. this goes back to the earlier reports that they could actually band some of the rare earth themselves. it has not been confirmed, that we know that china is reviewing their policy on rare earths. 80% of rare earths come from china, but they also have technology that is far more

superior for refining fair earth. that is the key her. still with us, james athey. i guess, james, china has been much more aggressive. for the moment they are starting to think about stopping exports to this technology, so they still have a strong hold on it. if that is the big unknown for the -- is that going to be the big unknown for the biden administration? james: this whole situation with rare earth, on the top of my head i thought the number was larger in terms of china's control, which has been out there in the ether for quite some time. it was always a risk, as you intimated there, where this bunch of rare materials have access into a huge number of manufacturing processes. a lot of it is technological stuff that we like to use these days. there was always a risk. we saw a headline earlier in the week suggesting they might even ban the rare earth materials themselves. now they seem to be citing

security concerns to not export the technology. it almost feels like a -- often used by the last administration to engage in administrative export practices. it is just another shot across the bow, in my opinion. i think biden cannot veer too far from this sort of confrontation with china. matt: he can spend money. joe biden -- we have the rare earth metals, we just don't pay to set up the factories to refine them, and if we really want them, we will do that. i am more interested in your statement about the bond vigilantes coming back. do you think that is a reality in the near future? if so, last time around they were pushing the 10-year yield to 12%, 13%, 14%, right? hi -- how high do you think

yields could go? james: this gets to the paradox of ultimately what central banks are trying to achieve here. we have known for a long time, some of us have known for a long time, the disconnect between the financial markets and the real economy. nobody tries to diagnose what's wrong with the economy, we just throw stimulus at the problem. no we have both arms of central bank and fiscal policy firing at the same time, and there is a chance that this does have a more positive growth and positive inflation impact on the real economy. really the only thing that has been able to keep markets in such a ridiculously expensive place across the spectrum throughout the last four, five, 6, 7 years is the fact that inflation is low. if just for a second, that assumption is questioned, then there has to be a major repricing. and that is why inflation pressures are feeding off

themselves in a way in which we know from history can be self-fulfilling and can become quite -- this is on a base case, but i certainly think the market wants to run with the inflation expectations, it becomes a big challenge for central banks in the near term. matt: it is something you have to hedge against. i look at debt-go. when i try to define the differences between what bond vigilantes would be able to do now and what they could do last time they came into existence. if you look at debt-go, you will notice that the federal reserve owns a ton of debt. all the -- so do all the central banks. i think that is the big difference, that you have another major buyer in town that you didn't have been the 80's. james: of course. this is ultimately financial repression. the ultimate idea behind the

financial repression is that you will offset the assets with this rise in inflation growth and expectation. the problem is the central reserve buying policy is to keep buying constant and at the current pace. while there is demand along the way, we know about structural demand for fixed income securities, and that is showing itself to the street. at the moment, it is no overwhelmed. where the right price and the right yield is to equalize is difficult to say, and market structure come as we have seen in the equities phase, has changed dramatically. not everybody is a fundamental investor, not everybody is doing what i'm doing. many are reacting to prices. these guys can be very powerful on a day by day basis.

there are potentially forces here which could cause faction in financial markets, and the central banks will have to make a decision full-time is our policy to deal with the real economy, or is it to deal with problems in the financial markets which are ultimately of their own creation? francine: thank you so much, james athey from aberdeen standard investments. a little bit later today, we will take stock on the u.s. economy with ellen zentner. that conversation, 6:30 am in new york, 11:30 a.m. in london, and this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we could already see demand recovering in the second half of 2020, led by an extremely strong chinese market for us, but also in europe and in north america, things were picking up toward the end. this is in our case driven by a phenomenally attractive product portfolio. matt: that was some of my exclusive interview with the ceo of daimler. the u.s. as it is willing to meet with iran to restore the nuclear deal. it is a first step toward easing tensions that rose steadily over the last four years. donald trump pulled the u.s. out of the iranian deal in 2018 and

also opposed sanctions that hammered iran's economy and infuriated other world leaders. iran says there must be relief from sanctions before there are any talks. republican senator ted cruz has returned to texas after a highly criticized family trip to cancun, mexico. he jetted off while texas was dealing with widespread power outages. he told reporters he did it because his daughters were cold, but that it was obviously a mistake. in the u.k., a landmark court decision that threatens uber's business model. the supreme court says uber drivers were workers, entitled to rights like minimum wage, holiday pay, addressed recs. the ruling is the end of the road for uber's five-year fight over the status of its drivers in the u.k. and it is actually kind of the opposite of what californians just voted for.

uber workers getting rights in the u.k. that they are not getting in progressive california. francine: this is not only about the uber drivers, but this goes to the u.k.'s landmark decision that will probably touch anyone in the gig economy. the only question i would have is the initial 25 drivers that brought this landmark case in 2016 -- how much will they get paid? kailey: to the point about california, that fight is still not over. there are still lawsuits flying around about this. the rules around workers are probably going to change at some point. francine: coming up, ian shepherdson on the economy. ♪

francine: this is bloomberg surveillance: the early serve --

edition. now there is a lot going on with the rare-earth story, and we saw that you -- uber lost income -- in the courts. all of their workers are now workers, and they get some kind of support from the government if they lose their job. matt: this makes me happy for black cabdrivers, because they have long decried the unfair competition in the market. of course a black cab cost more than an uber because they have more costs to pay. they are part of a company and they have to follow regulations, uber drivers do not. and these black cabdrivers half to learn the knowledge and spend years toiling away. they are the salt of the earth when it comes to british people. i am glad they get a break here. francine: i was thinking to one

black cabdriver who was saying that there is no work at the moment in london because what i did not realize it is not londoners that take the black cabs, it is the tourists. it is a tough time for taxis. kailey: i am a tourist who took a black cab just for the sake of. i thought they were so cool. uber shares on the back of that decision are down 3%. that is not the case broadly speaking for the equity market. we are seeing futures picked up as the session goes older. russell 2000 of by 1%. nasdaz up .4%. -- nasdaz up .4%. i would note that the dollar is weaker, but mixed in the g10 space. gold is lower again. i am sorry, it is your precious gold, but it has fallen out of favor.

it is the worst start to the year since 1991, 3 decades, it has not gotten a bid for that inflation hedge, higher yields and not as weak dollar. crude lower by 1.7%. part of that is the iran story with the biden administration and the removal of sanctions could bring more oil on the mic -- on the market and the easing energy crisis in texas concerns about demand rather than supply. cobbler futures in london up above $8,700, a nine year high. goldman sachs is part of that and the shortages boosting a crisis in china is coming back online after the unit or -- lunar year holiday. plus, copper setting reflate station expect -- expectations -- expectations. matt: in terms of gold, part of the problem is rising yields on

the long end. on the short end they are going negative. i have a chart that shows what this steepening does to the economy. in the white you see -- in blue consumer confidence expectations. whenever there is a steepening, and the red shared it areas our recessions, whenever there is a steepening the confidence follows it. ab that is about to happen here. francine: a great chart, and let us talk about the shards -- the charts with ian shepherdson. when you look at the economy we are looking at slack and financing conditions. overall, if you look at the economy, how difficult is it to get a clear picture given some of the claims. they are up and down. is the growth going to be sustained? ian: if you step back from the

noise what you see is an economy that it is mostly in the reprieve. we have some exceptions like the housing market and the stimulus boost in january. but the jobless claims are high and bouncing around the edge. it is higher than it was at the peak after the crash in 2008. we have some deep problems in the local markets, and the service economy is closed or running at reduced capacity and that is where most of the spending is, or right now is not. we are still waiting for the loosening of restrictions from covid, which will come sometime in the spring. right now we are still pretty frozen. francine: we are still waiting for the huge stimulus. janet yellen says she is committed despite what we saw income -- in stocks. is it too large, could it create a bad kind of inflation? ian: if we get out of covid jail

in the spring and everything goes well and smoothly, and there is no backsliding, but by the end of the year, we will be looking back and saying that is too much. but if the u.s. suffers an outbreak of the u.k. variant, if that happens in the reopening is delayed, we will be looking back and saying that we were cautious and it was the right thing to do. from a political perspective it is easier to get more money once than going back for a second round which will be more difficult and take time, time that would be lost. i understand el and -- i understand yellen and the administration's position, but we are facing an over easing of the economy. i will say right now, that would be a nice problem to have. matt: at the beginning of the show i was showing a chart that

illurated the difference between inflation expectations in the u.s. and germany. they are almost nonexistent here, and in the u.s. they are -- breakevens are above 2%. is that because of u.s. stimulus, do you think? and if the europeans put more stimulus in the system, what they get inflation up? ian: the euro zone faces structural difficulties that the u.s. does not have, plus the stimulus has been bigger in the u.s., and the progress on covid right now looks to be faster in the u.s.. the level of cases is quite high, that they are dropping quickly, whereas europe, the vaccination program is just getting underway. markets are looking at this story and saying every element of this is more powerful in the u.s. than europe. we do not know if there will be

a more aggressive physical response plan that will make a difference at the margin. this gap between inflation expectations across the atlantic is likely to persist because the u.s. is throwing everything but the kitchen sink at the post-covid economy, and we can see the pile of cash sitting on the sidelines and waiting to be spent as soon as it is safe to do so and it will be earlier because the vaccination rollout has been quicker. kailey: not just in the u.s. but also in the u.k.. what is the difference between europe and the united kingdom? we saw dismal retail sales out of the u.k. today. what is your expectation for the u.k., and you think the boe will have to use negative rates at some point? ian: i think that is unlikely, because the u.k. is substantially further ahead than the u.s., and likely to return immunity in the spring -- to reach herd immunity in the spring.

the u.k. has been an almost complete lockdown since january 4. the whole month was affected by the lockdown in february will be grim because the lockdown is persisting and we will find out monday it if it will be released in part in march. we will not see any big rebounds. the economy and covid are intertwined, and cannot be separated. until the covid restrictions can be released and the infections are down, the economy remains weak, but the ability to rebound in the u.k. is between the u.s. and eurozone. the year u.k. -- the u.k. sits between them. francine: the pound surging to 1.40, i feel rich and i know you do too. how does the biden administration deal with all of the concern regarding the rare-earth's? ian: this is a difficult one.

there is no way that the u.s.-china relationship can go back to the way it was before the trump administration. china's behavior has been quite egregious in the u.s. is looking with the adventurism in the south china sea and that behavior, and a whole host of problems which at the end of the obama administration were not there. we cannot have a rollback of all the stuff that trumped it on the trade and geopolitical side. the biden administration has been focused on the covid christian -- question so we have not seen clear indications of what they will do with trade policy against china and what they will do on a geopolitical perspective as well as dealing with china's adventures in the south china sea. we have a bunch of open questions and very little clarity. i think we will not go back to any cozy relationship. president xi's leadership has been aggressive and trump

accommodated that. but i think the biden administration will push hard. at this point i just do not know when and what specific measures they will take. francine: thank you so much. i wonder if the pound will go to $1.50, and we will be rich and unable to go anywhere. coming up, a columbia university economics professor, and she has been interesting when it comes to the euro and european dynamic. so it would be interesting to get his thoughts on the stimulus. that interview at 10:00 a.m. in new york. this is bloomberg. ♪

kailey: this is bloomberg -- >> this is bloomberg surveillance: early edition. coming up, more -- ellen zentner. this is bloomberg. >> securities put the restrictions in place in an effort to reach regulatory deposit requirements, not help hedge funds. we do not answer to hedge funds. we serve millions of small investors who use every day -- we use our platform every day to invest. >> we had no call in the decision to limit trading in game stock or the other meme stocks. i learned the trading structures after they were publicly announced. francine: it was must watch tv. i really enjoyed watching it.

the main characters after january's unprecedented retail trading face lawmakers. two bring up -- to bring us everything we needed, we have one of our reporters. robinhood almost apologized and what he actually trade just change anything? >> the entire business model of free trading did come under attack yesterday, particularly by alexandria ocasio-cortez, but at the same time many representatives asked about whether the clients are not paying, are they the product? and are the problems behind the practice of selling your trades to major market makers to license and securities, although they are many others. matt: i thought that was more of a statement. don't we know that the clients

are the product? isn't that how the business model works? and i wonder what aoc was getting at. i was trying understand where she was going and i was not quite following. did you get it? sonali: here's the thing, yes. the question is are the clients getting the best deal. in theory meet -- in theory, selling your trades to market makers would get you the best execution by routing trades to those market makers and then in turn making it possible to do free trading. at the same time, he was asked to provide evidence that the clients were getting the best deal, and he fell short of doing that. now the entire business model is under question, and the big thing about this is the other brokers have big diversified business models. robinhood generates a staggering more than 50% of its revenue

from payment for order flow, meaning that its business model is predicated on the business of selling the trades. that is not true for any other broker. matt: can i just ask -- the idea that people want -- congress wants people getting free trades to get better service for those -- then those who pay a broker for trade. is that the idea? sonali: congress wants clarity on whether they are actually getting the best deal. we do not know that in a finite way. the other thing is they want retail traders to have information that they can use to make the right decisions. right now you trade on robinhood and you might be able to do so on margin, they were concerned about that, and you are getting your information from reddit. how do you know you are giving people the tools they need to succeed as they enter the stock market for the first time. francine: what can congress -- kailey: what can congress do

about it? maxine waters was signaling that we will continue talking about this. what is the end game. sonali: disclosures between wall street and the brokerages are simple thing. the other thing is this two plus two idea was -- the idea that trade can be collapsed. that is something that was said what have helped in that middle period of volunteer any -- relative -- volatility. ken griffin said that there could be issues with doing such a thing and that would make sure that it would be something that the industry is not ready for. that is not an immediate answer. the fact that robinhood did not have enough collateral on hand and they forced the brokers, especially companies, every fintech was watching yesterday to have more money on the onset.

francine: thank you so much. she had the very latest on gamestop. coming up, representative french hill from arkansas at 8:00 a.m. in new york, 1:00 p.m. in london. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance: early edition. . when millions of texans lost power, governor greg abbott blamed keep -- clean energy for the greatest blackout, but lost in the narrative is the reality that renewable energy has been a boon to texas. in a new piece, arm editor and chief emeritus writes about where the growing source of jobs is. how may jobs will texas benefit because of this clean energy? matthew: it is great to be with you. well, it is early days really. but when you look at not just texas, but really everywhere in

the u.s., the fastest growing industry or sector after e-commerce and we all know what e-commerce is, amazon and so forth, is renewable energy ahead of everything else. what does that mean? wind turbines in texas, and those jobs have been multiplying almost exponentially. but, it is also solar, and biofuels, and all kinds of things. the reason is that there is a convergence of the consumer, people's preferences, and the corporate america, and if you look at where corporate america is hiring, look at the russell 3000, again small companies alight. -- alike. most of the new jobs that we are seeing are going to what we call

alternative energy or renewables. and that makes sense because we all recognize that climate change is an existential threat. if you think that business has every problem being an opportunity, here the opportunity. francine: are we going to see after the recovery a rebound in jobs in gas, oil, or coal? where is that a job that will just go? matthew: it is very interesting and i do not have the answer, i am nowhere near as clairvoyant as some people are. but there is somebody who is farsighted, kathy would. she has been one of tesla's biggest champions. and when we put that question to her at the beginning of the year, and her investing is global in scope, she said the oil industry itself will not recover to where it was. you know, at the mid 10's in

this new century, it will not happen. so, i think her track record speaks for herself. she has been extraordinarily successful. go matt: why are greg abbott and the other establishment industry people -- establishment politicians we talked to so shortsighted? surely follow the money is one of the greatest lessons i learned from you, and the money is eventually going to come from elon musk and those three thousands small and midsize companies that are going to be hitting the public markets and a wave over the next decade. matthew: look. it is a funny thing with politics. politics, unfortunately is too proud to be stupid. what you are talking about is

capitalism. and capitalism is always trying to find the next best thing wherever it is, and that is what we are seeing with renewable energy. and, that is what climate change is all about. so, the stakes -- the states that are favoring policies that are dealing with climate change are the ones that are doing best. by the way, even with all of its problems, california is foreign ahead of texas in that regard. and so, you have to believe that texas at some point will be dragged politically taking -- kicking and screaming into the 21st century to recognize that renewable energy is a growth industry. francine: thank you so much. matt winkler, editor in chief meredith -- emeritus on the texas blackouts and the

uneasiness with the republican party on clean energy. i know that you want to talk about that there is no rumor that there might be a 25% listing of porsche, is it the next thing? matt: or the tacon, the electric version of tesla's model s. volkswagen alone is only worth about $90 billion, and porsche, which is in volkswagen is 130 billion dollars. it would be amazing if they spit it out. francine: it is a little bit with what happened with variety -- ferrari. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the ball market will last -- bull market that will last for a long time will come.

>> we are about to throw a gigantic amount of stimulus on a market that is about to reopen anyway. >> when households have resources to spend they will. >> the bigger the stimulus the less money for everything else. >> every trade is being driven by negative real yields. >> at the core of it, high yields are predicting a different road. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramovitz. jonathan: this is bloomberg surveillance live on bloomberg tv alongside tom keene and lisa. following the longest four day week ever, we are almost there. tom: i am going to go to ian shepherdson 20 mean its ago with francine lacqua and the team