throw a gigantic amount of stimulus on a market that is about to reopen anyway. >> when households have resources to spend they will. >> the bigger the stimulus the less money for everything else. >> every trade is being driven by negative real yields. >> at the core of it, high yields are predicting a different road. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramovitz. jonathan: this is bloomberg surveillance live on bloomberg tv alongside tom keene and lisa. following the longest four day week ever, we are almost there. tom: i am going to go to ian shepherdson 20 mean its ago with francine lacqua and the team, it

is an overheating economy that is the expectation, and you see the markets begin to adjust to that. these are not overheated, but markets ready to go. jonathan: copper up by 2.5%. goldman looking for 10.5 thousand -- 10,000 in the last couple of months. tom: the commodity index is linear with some convict -- convexity. jonathan: we have to push forward to next week, a lot of fed to speak. lisa: jay powell will be speaking but also chair yellen, and now she is the treasury secretary. you are talking about overheating and that implies that the economy will run too hot, and i think it is interesting that in a cnbc interview that janet yellen said, hold on a second. that she said the risk of doing too little is the risk of doing too much. she does not see the fear of an

overheating economy and runaway of dutch inflation. tom: this is for something on friday in the weekend, what about looking at what corporations will do, and how corporations adapt? jonathan: hopefully they will invest, but aren't these politicians and central bankers looking at the previous cycle. lisa: the mistake has been underplaying the physical response and how long monetary stimulus stays in place and the idea that inflation did not kick off but this time people are saying it is different given the dual impulses of the fiscal stimulus in addition to the monetary stimulus that foster a different environment. jonathan: it is great to have lisa with us to suss out the little bit of darkness. lisa: how is that darkness? jonathan: good morning. equities are pushing high up 12 points with the s&p. if we are down, lisa has a problem. in the bond market, yields are

high. there is your break again on the u.s. 10 year, and crude is back in, $59 and 36 ash $59 36 cents. in a conversation may be on the cards. possibly some rehash of the nuclear deal that was scrapped under president trump. talking about gloom, there is a question of bloom versus reality, how much do we capitulate to the idea that everything is rosy and how much do we look at the on the ground reality that has not been moving that fast. that is what we will get, pmi data from manufacturing and services. we have been seeing massive recovery and we are expecting that to stall out a little bit, and we are seeing some stasis in the services side. but people do not seem to care about this data. they are looking forward to what happens after we get stimulus and when we get things reopen.

at 10:00 a.m., i am exist -- interested in existing u.s. home sales. the price of lumber reaching an all-time high. it is up 30% year to date. it is insane. we will be getting a slowdown in the number of home sales because of the affordability issue coming up to the four. 3:10 p.m. to -- 3:10 p.m., speaking about -- joe biden speaking about vaccinations. we will see if the u.s. will dramatically shift their stance. in the u.k. they have been given to one-shot individuals and getting as many people as possible. the new israeli study showing that health care workers have 80% reduction in symptomatic cases after receiving the first pfizer shots. that is lending some credence to the idea of getting more shots and more arms more quickly. jonathan: on the vaccine front, because we have crunched the numbers and it looks like we are

in for a vaccination surge in the coming weeks in the united states. tom: i look at the trends and hospitalizations, because that is what the pros tell me to look at. it is linear and good, and we are harkening back beneath where we were in the spring of last year. i want to mention this because steve is so important on this overheating aspect. i am watching the chinese renminbis. it is been stasis and stuck at a very strong level. six point 45 and is screaming trying to break through to new yuan strength. jonathan: let us get to steve right now. let us start with the research. in fact it is a subject that you are following and i think everyone is following the same same. -- same thing, where do i get real returns? steve: there are high-risk and low-risk options. you want to start with a low

risk, treasury inflation and protected securities where you are guaranteed cti, which is not the federal reserve's inflation target, it is a measure closer to a fixed asset, and you will get the annual return of inflation. over a course of 10 years, you will get back $.90 on the dollar plus inflation. that is really low risk, but a guaranteed version, and there are all sorts of other things. if you are interested in the bond market, he will have to take a substantial amount of credit risk. if you are thinking about inflation, and if you are thinking about it it will be inflation of revenue for companies. and, it will be in the equity market and equity income that get you some protection from inflation. based on the earnings front, if not the evaluation front. jonathan: do it again, this is what he had to say to us.

"some say there is a meaningful correction and i keep saying everyone on the planet is reading for that to happen. nobody likes them here, but that is the reality." does that resonate with you? steve: it is a little bit better than that. we will have a very strong eps recovery. last year was a 19% gain in global share prices. 2009 was a 30% gain. valuations are different, interest-rate rate levels are different, but we then went on to have share prices locally and returns rising. so, again, our recovery is discounted, so i will stop and wait there. that tends to be a mistake. what we can see, by missing out on the strong returns just being invested for growth and development over time, these can sap a portfolio's double digits.

tom: i am thrilled to have you here because you know prophets better than anyone else. i know they drag you over to do chief investment strategy. i want to talk about the economic profit picture in the core gdp equation, and what it will do and how it will devolve in corporations. i think we will see a massive lift. will it go into investment or shareholder return? steve: i think you will see shareholder returns first and then investments later, and then at that point returns and financial assets will slow down. we are not expecting this to produce double-digit returns and all equities. we had that last year. we are expecting a very strong economy, and the piece of this that was really beaten-down was if you think about profits across the economy, the small business sector had really taken

a terrible hit. marginal companies just holding on and requiring an insurance policy from the government to get them through this piece. but they were really depressed pieces, manufacturing and industrial activity last year, which are the direct beneficiary of the way that the economy has evolved. otherwise -- in other words, goods purchases are higher than 2019 and we are the producer now. we have to invest enough and only enough to keep doing that. the services sector will be the story of much greater strength in profits in 2022, and some of the things that are strong out will actually come down a bit. that will change a lot of things including some regional strength. lisa: given how the concessions -- consensus seems to be building that the economy has a greater chance of overheating

and going to slow, what is the ballast? what is your sort of solid, steady asset that will keep you going regardless of what happens? steve: there are things that we are doing that devolve the portfolio, because markets are always ahead of the economy. so, some of the things we have done. we will take an overweight in u.s. small caps since april, and the past month shut that out into global healthcare. it seems like an early time in the cycle to go from a cyclical recovery play rights to a long-term outperform her, but the way it has happened we have aggressively priced on u.s. small caps for recovery. i expect some further returns and further gains, but you are essentially trading up for something that is, instead of the hair, it is the tortoise. tom: we just had a headline, out

that completely describes the overheating you are talking about. john deere lists net income up to a top 5 billion from a previous top 4 billion. that will permeate through the entire system at 6% gdp, isn't it? steve: before infrastructure spending bill, -- that part of the economy and not to say that john deere is the purchase -- perfect match for that, but this is going to be really strong this year before we have really put down covid. and when we were talking early about janet yellen's comments, that is true as well. we dropped employment by nearly 10 million with a one million increase in the size of the adult population. there is another piece of the economy that is extremely depressed. if you look at it in the aggregate and we can take a look at consumer and commodity prices. commodity prices are raging for

the good sector. if you look at hotel pricing it is falling rapidly until we get past covid, and then we can broaden the recovery. i think we will probably see, and this is still early, some of the things that have been strong, home electronics, shipments from asia, these were one-off purchases that will not be repeated. jonathan: it is great to catch up. citibank's chief economist and strategist. coming up shortly, ellen zentner. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> in new york with the first word news, the u.s. says it is willing to meet with iran to restore the nuclear deal. iran says not so fast. it wants the u.s. to join the 2015 agreement and left sanctions. donald trump pulled the u.s. out of the deal in 2018 and imposed sanctions that hammered iran's

economy and infuriated other world leaders. republican senator ted cruz is back in texas after a highly criticized family trip to cancun. he jetted off while texas was dealing with widespread power outages. he then said he did it because his daughters were cold, but says clearly it was a big mistake. chancellor of the exchequer plans to delay consideration of an online sales tax until the fall. bloomberg learned because of the economic uncertainty due to the pandemic. the proposal aims at making sure that brick-and-mortar stores are not at a disadvantage to online retailers. in a u.k. a landmark decision that threatens uber's business model. the supreme court says that uber drivers are workers entitled to rights like a minimum wage, holiday pay, and rest breaks. it is the end of the road for uber's flight for status for its drivers in the u.k.. global news, 24 hours a day, on

air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> many american feel that the system is stacked against them and no matter what, wall street

always wins. in this instance, many retail investors appeared motivated by a desire to beat wall street at its own game. >> i am personally humbled by what happened in january. investors suffered significant losses and i am taking steps to protect our investors for anything like this happening in the future. >> we do not answer to anyone, we serve millions of small investors that use our platform. jonathan: that is a snapshot into hearings from the gamestop rout. i am not a cat. that was literally the highlight of the whole thing in the hearing. just yesterday, that was it. good morning, alongside tom keene and lisa, i am jonathan ferro. we look like this, up seven, call it a. we are up .2%. in the bond market, yields are

higher by a single basis point. 1.3059, and the fx market, the dollar is weak. tom keene, cable, back at work. tom: we have to pause, cable at 1.40, 2018. the last time cable was at 1.480 , jon ferro was working at a retail place and i was a -- i was at a hotel bar. jonathan: you are so inebriated you forget that we were a house. it was a massive turnaround with the vaccine rollout in the u.k. has surprised people to such a degree that they are willing to look through a resales print early this morning. tom: and you are standing across all of our asset classes. let us look at the enthusiasm in washington as well.

emily wilkins joins us as well. it is about the president, pfizer, and vaccine success or not. does the president visit pfizer with a message of success or let us get going? emily: so far, the vaccine rollout we have seen is meeting all of the requirements that biden put forward. if you remember biden initially said that he wanted one million vaccines per day and they have raise that to 1.5 million. with it even going higher. the average amount of vaccines being distributed at the u.s. is over 1.6 million per day. at some point you can talk about victory, but biden is thinking about other things including equities, who is getting the shots and what order. these are big discussions that are beginning to break through into the administration. tom: i look where we are and i am looking at on a friday.

we know the honeymoon is over and there is a lot of posturing including headlines from mr. biden. what is the action? is it messaging or tangible? emily: i think it is a little bit of both. the white house and president biden want to make sure they are having the message to americans that you need to wear your masks and keep being safe, that is the message that biden had earlier at a town hall, at the tangible thing that the federal government can do such as implementing the production acts which will increase more of vaccines and look at where the vaccines are going. one big debate is exactly what is going to happen with the reopening of schools and what standards will be out there and what will the government advocate and push for. jonathan: prime minister boris johnson is under pressure to outline to -- on how to reopen. emily, i keep hearing the same word, christmas.

i keep hearing christmas from this administration and everyone i see reply to that tweet is saying, christmas, we have to wait until christmas. what are people saying? ellen: i have -- emily: i have heard christmas and christmas in july. president biden came out and said there would be enough vaccines to vaccinate you all u.s. adults by the end of july. that is a deadline we have heard a couple of times. having the vaccines does not mean they are distributed or given, so i think there still a lot of questions about how this process is going to work, how are people going to get the vaccines, and are the people who really need them getting them. lisa: given all of this with reopening the economy as well as giving support to it, it is timing for president biden to come out and say he is open to renegotiating a nuclear deal with iran. iran snubbing president biden

saying that he has to lift sanctions and reenter the 2015 deal before they talk. could you explain about the thinking of the timing? emily: i think the biden administration is working on several different things. one difference between president bride -- biden and former president trump is the willingness to engage with international allies and other nations. that was something that trump to a certain extent really backed off the world stage, not being part of the world health organization, getting off the paris claimant accords. this is on the same time of the vaccine biden is trying to reestablish connections across the world including things like look year -- looking at the nuclear agreement again. lisa: can you give me a sense about the support behind it. president biden's approach to china is similar to president trump's, but how about other policies and support on both sides of the aisle in congress

that he has. emily: there are certain things that there are more partisan tensions around the nuclear agreement and different things regarding the middle east with israel and jerusalem and palestine, but there are things that have a lot of bipartisan support. china is one of those areas where you see people on both sides of the aisle who are backing president biden's wants to crack down on china being more aggressive on their violation of human rights and other potential issues. so i think it depends. you cannot put all of the international issues in one clump and there will be things where you will see a lot of republican pushback, but there are things where you will see the republicans right on board. jonathan: great to catch up, thank you for being with us. emily wilkins down in d.c.. the president is teeing up, competition not confrontation, is that just semantics? lisa: i think it was telling that he did not speak with

president she -- xi until after he spoke with vladimir putin. i wonder if there is something substantive behind that. jonathan: let us get to the headline that came out 15 minutes ago, you mentioned it a little bit earlier. deare -- deere previously seeing 3.6 to four. we have started to see the guidance improve. tom: i remember eight months ago honeywell came out with organic revenue growth to basis points-that -- than expected. can you imagine if we saw 70 companies come out with the adjustment where it is supposed to be 6% organic revenue growth and all of a sudden it is 8%? that is what you get when you get a better economy like rns -- next guest has modeled, a single digit economy. jonathan: that is the sent that the market -- scent that the market has picked up.

we have the morgan stanley chief economist joining us with a bright outlook. good morning to you all, i am jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg surveillance with futures up nine and we are up .25%. so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business.

jonathan: from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance." here is the price action, good morning to you. .2 point -- point 25% on the s&p. down over the last four days by about three. we advanced by .9%. a bit of tension between the bond market and stock market. yields higher by not even a basis point on a 30 year by 2.088%. adding comfortable in and around 1.30. 1.30 on the back of improving economic data and the outlook is gearing up this morning as tom mentioned with a better outlook. morgan stanley, which we will catch up with, looking at 6.5% gdp growth, and 5% next year.

cable, 1.40, why? certainly not because of the data, that was ugly on the retail side and it is the hope that things get at her. that is a familiar theme. cable, 1.3996. that is the story. the good stuff is just around the corner. tom: risk on his tangible, futures up 43. the vix has not, and, that it is a better friday then we have seen midweek. ellen zentner joins us with morgan stanley, their chief u.s. economist at with a bombshell report and adjust and i, dutch adjustment, i believe it was yesterday. 7% gdp depending on where you measure it. what is invent -- important is what stephen roach invented, which is that everybody else feeds off everyone else's research. your secret is matthew harrison,

he is definitive and biotech and he is telling you that he is seeing better vaccination numbers. ellen: better vaccination numbers and we are getting shots in arms at a greater rate. hospitalization rates coming down, that counts coming down. that is what households really care about and is what gives them the confidence and -- to show that they want to return to put the word normal". -- in quotes. they want to get out there, and maybe it is just the sad winter. we have the ingredients to make that happen. tom: this is really important. we discover these economists before they are a chief economist and ellen zentner was discovered with acute consumer analysis years ago. does this devolve. does six and 7% gdp devolve into

a consumption boom? ellen: yes. you think about the forecast for the u.s. economy, it has to be about the consumer because that is the lion's share of the economy. but you do not just have the consumer, you have fiscal stimulus behind it. you have a lot of buying power out there with pent-up demand that continues to build. so, the biggest delta for the economy this year is what the consumer does as we are able to move more freely around the economy. that also points to the greatest risk is that confidence is rising and they are telling us that they want to get out and do things. and, historically, sometimes we can say we feel one way and do something else. tom: no way. ellen: that is a risk, and if that is the case you see the savings rate remain elevated and you do not see that calm down as people start to spend.

lisa: when do the unemployment matter -- numbers start to matter again? ellen: we are looking at two different ones and we have discussed it in the past. you have the six plus percent on the unemployment rate that is the most widely reported that is the traditional measure, you are closer to around 10.5 percent for the underlying unemployment rate that you take into account all of the measurement issues. we get improvement in unemployment rate this year, but if we think about that broader measure of underemployment, that is at 10.5% and it comes down to 6.25 by the end of the year. four percentage points is a huge amount of improvement but that is a high unemployment rate by the end of the year. you have a lot of the pent-up demand coming true at a time where we still have supply constraints on the labor side, and that is what plays into the inflation report -- forecast.

jonathan: can you imagine the news conference as they say 6.5 gdc -- gdp growth this year and look at five next year. what does that look like? ellen: it is an evolution. at the march fomc meeting they will have to resize -- revise their forecast because growth will be tracking higher in the first quarter because of the stimulus checks that came through in the bill that was passed in december. but, they may not pull in a forecast fully for might -- what might be coming at that time of that next fiscal stimulus package. most likely it is a june meeting that they would have to revise again. and then, most likely only by september when the forecast continues to track behind the economy. and they play catch up by revising higher. here's the thing, it is the

unemployment rate that matters. even though we have inflation rising and reaching above 2% by the end of the year, that is not good enough, especially in the context of the six plus percent underlying unemployment rate. >> this is the story, the forecast for the fed right now. 22, 3 .2%. contrast the fed with morgan stanley. tom: the gap is this wide, and as you mentioned there are speeches next week. there will be a sentence here and there. jonathan: how do we navigate the fed speak when you start to get the cracks, not from the governors or the core who we hear from, but from the presidents who start to look around and see better growth? ellen: i think we will see more of them speaking out and speaking their mind, but they will temper it. it will be very obvious that they are seeing better growth, but it is going to be obvious to them that there is uncertainty

around how the vaccine rollout will progress and if there will be hiccups. the cloud of covid will be thinning into the middle of the year. but, we will still be under it. so, they will acknowledge the better growth, we are just not there on the labor market. they have a lot of cover here to explain that we are still not anywhere near that significant improvement that they say they are looking for. that applies to rate hikes, and for some of them that involves the balance sheet as well. we think that by the middle of the year with the cloud of covid really thinning, that more of them will be talking about balance sheet that could be on the rise, at some point you not need to tighten policy but you need to take your foot off the gas pedal and we think that tapering begins the beginning of next year. lisa: we will also be hearing from janet yellen on monday, and there is a question.

yesterday she said the price of doing too little is much larger than the price of doing something big. how concerned are you about the price of higher inflation that perhaps is beyond what people are expecting? ellen: i think the risk there is that it rises more so than what the fed can stomach. we have a high forecast from the street and it is not enough to trigger rate hikes before the quarter -- the third quarter. of course we could get that wrong and it could be that there are more supply constraints and there is a lot of flow-through from the dollar pushing in for prices higher and they tend to last. but, the fed is there, they would rather fight that battle and janet yellen goods good and -- knows good and well what they can do. they would rather push down inflation then continuing this multi-battle trying to push inflation higher. tom: you are channeling your

inner mario draghi, you are going out to 23. when the news changes and the actions of people change, what do you perceive to be the verbal path for institutional officers that demand market stability as they stagger to your -- to the year 2023. they will be walking on glass? ellen: they will, and that is one of the biggest debates out there. the fed is hell-bent on fighting any financial stability. sometime i think about the tools as is financial stability like a frog in boiling water. everything feels fine and then all my god, nothing is fine. so could those tools really recognize it fast enough. so, that is the biggest thing. they are certain that they can battle it fast enough and they have the tools necessary to

battle it. but you have to step in with things like rate hikes, even if you get into the cracks, you have a labor market that is tight. you are running a high-pressure economy and if those pressures are coming through you must be at maximum employment, so you would be raising rates in that environment in the market would be asking you to raise rates. the problem is that it comes sooner than expected and you get a very violent and volatile dutch volatile mate. jonathan: great to catch up. in so many ways we start to recycle 20 and elements of it. i remember the conversation, 2013 and 2014 at the time of the bank of england. he would sit in the news conference and ask about what was happening in the housing market, and he would talk about macro credentialed tools and how he did not want to play with rates. tom: i used bust you on the

chops about this, a wonderful american at the international monetary fund, and he would fall back on macro prudential's and he -- i would ask what is that. there are some new speeches and press conferences that need to be massaged. when the facts change, they will have to change. jonathan: remember the line in 2013, taking and tightening, are you excited to hear that later? tom: maybe they learn more. it sounds like you were on the edge of lisa. i just wonder how they are going to go through the process. let us remind ourselves, it is early 2021 and ellen zentner is a grizzled probe looking out 20 months. lisa: the problem is but -- that back then there was not real inflation. what happens when inflation checks the fed's hand? jonathan: print -- transitory, we will look through it. coming up, and drew pescaro's --

andrew pass because. equity futures update on the futures 500 advancing about 2/10 of 1% a long time tom keene and lisa, i am jonathan ferro. ♪ >> in new york with the first word news. iran says the u.s. must return to the 2015 nuclear deal and lift sanctions if they want to start talks with the islamic republic. that appears to be a rejection of the effort to begin direct discussions before rejoining the accord. donald trump pulled out of the agreement in 2018, re-imposing sanctions. the u.s. vaccine supply is set to double in the coming months, allowing a broad expansion of shots administered. according to an analysis, the number of vaccines deliver should -- delivered should rise to 30 million a week in june. by summer that is enough to give 4.5 million shots a day.

those blackouts that plunged texas into chaos in the midst of a historic cold start easing. the energy crisis that they sparked are not over. four of the largest refinery suffered widespread damage and they could be down for weeks for repairs. bloomberg has learned that ibm is considering a sale of its ibm watson business, helping the company's new ceo focus on cloud computing operations. ibm is considering a number of alternatives from a sale to a private equity firm to a merger with a blank check company. watson help health care providers manage data. the u.s. is -- is expected to leave germans out of any sanctions over the nord stream 2 pipeline from russia. the biden administration is trying to stop the project without antagonizing close allies. a key report to congress could be out as soon as today. bloomberg learned is expected to list only a small number of russia linked to d's.

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>> quite frankly, i think that we are learning through the

pandemic, that the underlying global economy is just more resilient and flexible than we had supposed a year or so ago. jonathan: a chief economist weighing in on the surprise from the upside. good morning. i am jonathan ferro. it is a friday morning, the price action is shaping up as follows. up nine on the s&p. taking a small bite out of a weekly loss, and in the fx market this is what i want to get to. euros are stronger. the aussie flying. the aussie dollar up almost one percentage point. we have had a huge breakout on a 10 year yield in australia. now, 1.43 on in this trillion 10 year. ozzie strength, even with the governor talking about not raising interest rates until 2024, a huge commodity trade with copper and the aussie

flying, some interesting moves taking place. tom: the chilean peso coming back to where it was in the summer of 2019. right now on the vaccine, and rope echoes -- andrew pekosz at the john hopkins school. on -- jon and lisa are on speaking terms with mike, i am not. what i see in the data is simple. there is a persistent, almost inertial force of better hospitalizations. you see that as an extrapolation into the summer and fall? andrew: hopefully it will be exponential. because the effect of the vaccine on the highly susceptible populations, the elderly, health-care workers who were exposed to the virus on a higher rate, the effects on

hospitalizations and deaths is going to be faster and it will be more complete. as we move into the summer, that is when the vaccine rollout will really start to affect the total number of cases, because as we get into the general population, the immunity will build up. tom: do you have a percent of vaccinated that is a tipping point to success? andrew: every increased percentage point will help us. the real tipping point, modelers say is around 70% of the adult population. at that point we should be seeing very substantial effects of vaccination on virus spread. but do not get me wrong, we will see effects before then, so rolling out the vaccine as soon as possible will always help us. 70% is the tipping point that i've seen most point data. lisa: based on a study in the u.k. of israeli health care workers that showed a high percentage of protection on the

first dose of the pfizer inoculation, should the u.s. expediting getting the first shots into as many people as possible over perhaps having two doses available for each individual? andrew: it is a point of bait right now. i tended to try and focus on getting billed shots in place. the reason for that is that we know that the second shot does increase the amount of immunity that a person has, and it is also probably going to help us in terms of the length of immunity that a vaccinated person has. so, i think that the best strategy going forward is to try immune eyes -- try to immunize everybody going forward. we just have to get better at rolling out the vaccine and dealing with the supply and logistic distribution problems that are creeping up in the u.s.. lisa: when i walked in this morning john noticed that i seemed ready to bring the blue -- bring the gloom.

how close are we to a mutation in the south african variant coming in and rendering the inoculations obsolete? andrew: the south african variant that people talk about now is probably one mutation that is eliminating a small percentage of the immune response that the vaccine or infection can provide people. that is not inconsequential and it is on the radar screen. but it is important to note that there is good protection of the vaccine when it has been assessed in places like south africa. there is protection to these variants. i think that, importantly, getting back to hospitalizations and deaths, the effect their may be greater because the vaccine might be protecting from that even more efficiently then protecting from infection. jonathan: do you have a good read on the level of holdouts on people who will not take a vaccine in the country.

andrew: it is changing on a weekly basis, i am seeing the trend go up and that more people are accepting of the vaccine, particularly as they see the benefits happening. i am hoping that will continue as we roll into the next phase of vaccination which is a population max -- mass vaccination. jonathan: when can we get rid of the restrictions? andrew: i would imagine sometime in the spring and summer is when we will see the natural reduction of virus cases because of the warmer weather coupled with the vaccination rates going up. at that point i think it will be good to think about relaxing the efforts. but for the short term we have to keep our foot to the ground and make sure we are continuing to get the case numbers to lower levels. jonathan: fantastic to catch up. andrew pecos there. a question that matters for some the people, when can we get rid of the restrictions and when can they return to the jobs that

they used to do? tom: back to normality, i do not have an answer other than it is in every day grind after getting numbers -- x number of vaccines done. what do you think, april? i think that is too early. lisa: what are we going to stop wearing these? -- when are we going to stop wearing these? jonathan: when the hand breaks, off? lisa: honestly, the mask mayor is wearing will not stop for a long time. jonathan: do you think that stays in the summer? lisa: you cannot get the kids inoculated. the children have not gotten the ok to receive the vaccine. and until the kids really are protected, there is a question of this tipping point. tom: to the kids get sick, the answer is no. lisa: it is not about them, it is can you get enough of a critical mass of the population inoculated into your point,

there is a lot of hesitancy out there, how can we get to that 70% mark before the summer. jonathan: when the kids go back to school, do you get less gloomy? lisa: we will see. jonathan: what is the last thing the school has sent to you. lisa: their schools are not going to go back into person in august which is devastating. and, just to highlight the feeling for a lot of people, it is difficult for the kids. jonathan: they have already made the decision. lisa: some schools are back doing part-time, but it is a distant scenario if you do not have that kind of interaction, and there is this national core tail -- curtailment of socialization. jonathan: there is some pushback from the unions as well. much more still to come. robert, pg&e chief strategist with the bond market and yields breaking out in the past week. you're getting used to life in and around 1.30 on the u.s. 10 year.

it looks strange to read. equity futures up seven on the s&p 500 and advanced to -- .2%. stay safe out there. new york city the time russia side works this morning, that was ugly. tom: wear boots. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we could be getting on a path that is actually greater, the trend of growth being greater than we had pre-pandemic. >> there i just know stabilizer's. >> the underlying global economy is just more resilient and flexible. >> economists are picking up on this idea that the super cycle has turned, commodities are moving higher, and inflation looks like something that is coming back. >> the bull market has begun. it is starting and is not going to go away anytime soon. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: from new york city to our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am jonathan ferro. equity futures, advancing .2%, on the s&p 500. our