tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg February 21, 2021 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
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indication of its effectiveness. half of a million covid tests. we will discuss the biden relief package with paul krugman. the compromise over nuclear inspections. iran has video surveillance of its atomic plants. >> and now to sophie kamaruddin. what is on your radar screen that should be on ours? sophie: monday, we have a pulse check on korea and trade data and earnings. bluescope already reporting results. helping earnings for the australian steelmaker. we also have an update on another company with improved earnings this year. energy stocks also on watch i had of the petroleum -- ahead of
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the petroleum week. we are seeing equities slowing in the face of rising bond yields. the chinese 10-year gilts is about 3% -- trading activity being lifted. we are also keeping an eye on the euro-yen. keeping an eye on the aussie dollar as well which had a strong week given the rise in commodity prices. and the 10-year gilts at 10 basis points this morning. -- in the 10 year yields at 10 basis points this morning. pulling up a chart on the terminal, we do have jay powell's testimony in front of congress this week.
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keeping an eye on the ratio between the prices of copper and gold. copper is a commodity and gold is a safe haven issue. given the improvement in the outlook of the economy. >> anything that is going on with jay powell and bond market moves are on the radar screen but a big picture that everyone is watching is a ramp-up of vaccination campaigns allowing drugmakers to gather. providing the first real world indication that the immunization will curb transmission of the coronavirus. let's get more from ian fisher. israel has been a world leader on vaccines and it looks as have some optimistic news from the study. what have they found? ian: it has the world's highest
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rate of vaccinations and it has become a laboratory for the vaccine in general but also particularly for pfizer's vaccine. the news out of israel this week was good on three fronts. the first was does it prevent you from getting sick and dying? it is showing very high rates of effectiveness on that. the real one people are looking out for is will it prevent infections? can it stop -- if you get it -- it was not clear before that if you got it, you couldn't give it to someone else. it showed to be that it showed to stop 90% of the infections from one to another. the third thing that not many people have talked about but which is important is that most
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of the cases in the study were of the u.k. variant which is more transmissible and on the rise in europe and in the u.s. all the good things that appear to be true about the vaccine in general also seem to be true about that particular variant. >> in the u.s., they will hit another dyer milestone. the most deaths in the world by far and joe biden making this at the top of his priority list as president. do things look different? ian: things look a lot different. when we hit 400,000 right before joe biden took office, it was at a peak. as many as 5000 deaths each day and that has dropped substantially.
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it is at a much lower phase. also, vaccines are rolling out at a much stronger rage. you're getting a higher percentage of the population, especially the population of older people, getting vaccinated. and add on top of that, there have been vaccine companies ramping up production. pfizer says it will be doubling its production. the ability to this age now with -- the ability to stage now has improved tremendously to the point that once the problem of supply is result, they can get shots into arms. haidi: ian fisher with the
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latest. let's continue the conversation about the vaccine rollout in australia. the country began the program. the prime minister, scott morrison, among the first receiving the shots. what is the plan over the next few weeks? a fairly slow rollout in terms of the top priority groups. >> 142,000 doses will go to frontline health workers, border workers and nursing home staff. after that, they will slowly be working through the rest of the population on and at risk basis -- on an at-risk basis. at that point, the population will be getting the astrazeneca vaccine. it can be made locally by csl in melvin -- in melbourne.
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the outbreak in melbourne seems to be under control now. three days without community transmission in victoria. 35 days with no community transmission in new south wales. australia is starting to rollout from a strong position. >> there are still skeptics out there. what sort of protest action are we seeing? paul: there were some protests over the weekend. a few hundred people in melbourne. there was booing at the australian open at the mention of the vaccine rollout. more protests are planned for today. the deputy prime minister has been addressing this and he described the crowd as a random mob. this thing people you see
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protesting at everything. the approval process in australia was not fast tracked. the vaccine is not compulsory. it is likely that some employers will require it. 40% of the population want the vaccine right away and 71% of it want it by october. >> let's get over to vonnie quinn. >> the top oil producers are heading into a opec plus strategy meeting. warning members to be cautious about production. moscow still wants the group to increase supply as it sees the market turning. opec and its allies are still withholding about -- barrels of oil from the market. isis seem high after concern of
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another record. it reached $1 trillion in market value for the first time. peter schiff says gold is a better wager then bitcoin. -- than bitcoin. adding that bitcoin is "less dumb than cash." like hong kong and singapore have resumed talks over the corridor. the south china morning post says they are discussing extra safety measures although it is too early to say when the bubble may begin. it is expected to start in november. it was postponed after a resurgence of covid cases in hong kong. iran had been threatening to shut down investigations at its nuclear sites.
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this comes after the biden administration has said it is willing to meet with iran. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.. i'm vonnie quinn and this is bloomberg. haidi: still ahead, don't miss our conversation with paul krugman later this hour. his views on the stimulus debate and the post covid recovery. we also speak with alec shaheed he who joins us next. this is bloomberg. ♪ want to save hundreds on your wireless bill? with xfinity mobile you can. how about saving hundreds on the new samsung galaxy s21 ultra 5g? you can do that too. all on the most reliable network. sure thing! and with fast nationwide 5g included at no extra cost. we've got you covered. so join the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction.
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the vaccine rollout. joining us is alex shahidi, cio of evoke advisors. a funny place that investors find themselves in at the moment. extraordinary conditions when it comes to liquidity. where do we go going forward? do you have one eye on normalization even if the fed is signaling that is not coming soon? alex: it is an extraordinary time right now. if we zoom out for a second, we have zero interest rates, negative in many parts of the world right now. there is a global pandemic which you were discussing earlier which is probably lasting longer than expected. a rise in populism. and ongoing severe deflationary secular trends because of debts
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and technological innovation and the pandemic. these are more -- these are major portions at play and how this nets out is anyone's guess. fast forward a few years, what will the world look like? we could be in an inflationary, depressionary situation like japan. the fed is trying to create inflation. or anything in between. it is a very challenging environment to try to predict the future and i would say the most important lesson we want to share is it is super important to be truly diversified. if you try to guess what is going to happen, and you guess wrong, you could get wiped out. that is something we are stressing with our clients. haidi: let's talk about one of
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the reasons why there was so much optimism going into this year -- the vaccine rollout and the potential return to some normality. we have australian starting its program. has this been priced in already? alex: that seems to be the case although, again, it is difficult to know exactly what the rollout it is going to look like, the pent-up demand and the change in consumer demand post pandemic. a lot of countries cannot rollout the vaccine, some of the -- like some of the western world that can do it more easily. how that plays out is unknown. it seems there is optimism priced into the markets but i would say the most important thing is to be diversified. own things that do well in different of arguments like gold. treasuries to protect against a
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deflationary environment. i think it is super important to be as diversified as possible. haidi: one of the things -- kathleen: one of the things you note is that it is a different situation -- bond yields worried about inflation if there is more stimulus, that is where does. how different has that been when you are advising people what to buy, hold, or sell? alex: they asked us that same question all the time. it is a different world. when fiscal policy and monetary policy are driving markets and economies, it makes it more difficult to predict the future. you cannot just look at the leading indicators. it is a truly different world. the way you protect yourself is
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by owning these different assets. we think about it in a risk parity network. you risk balance. most portfolios, when we look outside of our client base, are not that well diversified. they own a lot of stocks and bonds that may have done well in the last 10 years but in the next 10 years, that will look quite different. and it is largely because we have a monetary and fiscal policy really driving markets. haidi: how -- aligned -- kathleen: there will be a burst of inflation as demand gets online and supply may lag. the globalization is not going away.
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why are investors getting so worried about inflation now? alex: anytime you see printing to the degree that we have had an rates stuck at zero, those talks will start. you are seeing gold rally and bitcoin -- alternative storage for wealth. it is natural that inflation talk will start. the market is not pricing for it. and that is a big risk. inflation surprises to the upside. most investors, even though there is talk of concern about inflation, they do not actually own any inflation hedges and that seems to be a disconnect between concern versus what is in their portfolios. this is what we stress. own inflation hedges because inflation could really surprised to the upside. we are seeing pressures and emerge. there are deflationary pressures.
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haidi: we are seeing some movement when it comes to australian bond yields. the highest since mid-2019. we have already seen a reaction or more of a focus when it comes to emerging markets when we had the move in u.s. yields. at what point do you see a sizable shift in investors' minds as a result of what we are seeing across treasuries? alex: that goes back to what you said earlier -- which is that there is an anticipation of a bounce post pandemic. you are starting to see some of these markets move in advance of that. it is going to be really interesting to see how this plays out. i'm not sure what the path forward looks like -- go back a
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year and a half, what we have lived through in the last year and a half could not a been predicted by anyone and now we have forces in play that will strongly influence of the future. inflation pressures are increasing. europe has been trying to create inflation for a decade without success. japan has been trying for a couple of decades without success. kathleen: alex shahidi, thank you very much. an iranian compromise on nuclear monitoring taps the brakes on escalating a standoff with the united states. the latest on that is just ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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notice inspections is being suspended. iran is making a compromise that allows a potential resolution. iran wants the u.s. to rejoin the nuclear deal. let's bring in ros krasny. a lot going on. where do things stand with the nuclear deal? ros: we are seeking daily back-and-forth's between the two teams. everything will change with the new administration in washington. it seems the u.s. administration much excel of want to make it clear to iran that the ball is in their court. he pointed out that they are the ones that need to compromise in
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terms of allowing inspectors and not making demands of the u.s. whereas, iran, through its foreign minister has had a little mantra at the moment which is commit and act. they want the u.s. to commit to rejoining the nuclear agreement that donald trump left and then act on this sanctions and then agreed to meet. haidi: we saw late last week the u.s. move on the snapback of sanctions. something of an all of branch. we are hearing from the foreign minister in iran that he feels this is just a continuation of the maximum pressure campaign. is he right? ros: i think he is partly right. at least at this point, the
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biden administration does not want to be seen giving the way too much to iran. they want to be seen as holding a policy on iran and china. if the two sides can move forward with talks or rolling back some of the very crippling u.s. economic sanctions on iran, it seems like a global win. we do not have a timetable on when the u.s. might agreed to the deal that donald trump pulled out of but it seems like over time, it is quite likely to happen. for iran, if the u.s. rolls back any or all of those sanctions, it could really boost the economy there and the regional economy as well. everyone understands the
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positives of this but no one wants to be the first to blink. haidi: ros krasny in washington. hsbc is said to be considering relocating some of its senior executives to hong kong. they will begin the pivot to asia. that would mean the unit -- it would be run from hong kong. california-based ev maker is said to be nearing a deal to go public by merging with a blank check company. we are told the entity could be worth $50 billion and could be announced in the next few days. foxconn is the latest tech company to be looking for an electric vehicle plan. the plan is to launch two
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♪ >> we are getting breaking news on the gradual opening in the u.k.. northern england will reopen on march 8 and boris johnson is expected to confirm that. lockdown easing in the u.k. will initially focus on schools, as the culture -- as outer contact as well. boris johnson expected to announce this on monday as the uk's getting close to its vaccine target. u.k. prime minister johnson will announce all schools will reopen march 8 in england and the
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lockton will be lifted gradually over the coming months. we also expect to hear details about how people will meet one on one dusty able to meet one on one to sit on for coffee or outdoors and outdoor activities can restart from the same date, according to a person familiar with these plans. this will come in the foremost it to parliament on monday. the prime ministers expected to allow more social contact from the end of march with outdoor gatherings of six people or two households as well as outdoor athletics and sports like tennis and football as well. and the reopening of schools will be reopened -- welcome by parents who have been juggling working from home as well as homeschooling since that there national lockdown began in early january. it is not clear whether all age groups of students will come back at the same time. but we are waiting to hear from the prime minister or as john smith dashboard prime minister boris johnson in the statement to parliament on the lifting of some restrictions. we will get you more details on the story as they get to us.
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meantime, we will get your first word news. >> here in the u.s., the united states is nearing half a million coronavirus death, with dr. singh normal life may not return until 2022 -- with doctors saying normal life may not return until 2022. dr. fauci saying it would be a historic the terrible moment. covid-19 cases are following with the u.s. come out with 16 million vaccine doses so far. hong kong -- taiwan expects its economy to grow as global chip demand boost exports, expecting a 4.6% gdp greater than anticipated and taipei is bolstering export growth from an original projection. india is turning to colonial era legislation to deal with farm protests amid claims them and stratus art engaging in sedition
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-- amid claims demonstrators are engaging in sedition. one protester joined seven others hit with similar charges the british era laws allow detention without bail. thousands of people have attended the funeral for protester shot dead in myanmar, vowing to step up their opposition to the military coup and demonstrator say they will hold their biggest rally monday as the army struggles to rein in dissent. shops are expected to close with private banks already shut and a tams running out of cash -- atms running out of cash. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. kathleen: moving onto a big story at a very big guest, u.s. lawmakers could vote this week on president biden's proposed relief package worth $1.9 trillion. the plan has spurred wide
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debate. paul krugman, distinguish professor of economics and the author of the book, arguing with economic -- arguing with zombies about economics and politics. paul, let's get right to stimulus because this is the news. you have weighed in on this in many columns, they debate, so many things. the size has become a political football, as you know. paul: yeah. kathleen: if you are to extract politics from this, looking solely through an economic lens, is there anything you -- if you are the virus relief czar, something you might remove or change or would you say this is perfect and leave it as it is? paul: it is not perfect, there are things -- it is a mixture of politics and administrative capacity. those $1400 checks are not the best targeted thing in the world.
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and you want something like that, to reach people who are going to fall through the cracks of the other programs. and if you had time and unlimited ministry of capacity and, let's face it, if there were not the political imperative to make good on promises, you might find -- try for something that was a little bit more targeted than that. but this is -- money is really kind of not an object, amazingly, in all this stuff. and you really want to get a lot of aid out the door fast. you have to get people through the six or seven months of pandemic, and we need to have the economy poised to make a fast comeback when it can. kathleen: ok. as you note better than anybody, you are in a discussion and debate with larry summers, the former treasury secretary. he was on bloomberg television friday and let's listen to what he said about what you have said.
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"bloomberg technology." >> i would rather cs investing money than expanding the capacity of the economy than sibley making transfer payments. -- than simply making transfer payments. what is remarkable as advocates of this program like paul krugman, when you put to them it may overheat the economy, they say no, no it, it won't. people save the money and people will use it to pay down debts. [video clip] and i cannot imagine a lower priority use of federal resources. kathleen: paul, what is your response? the question is, are we going to put money that is not targeted as well as it could be, into, take away from things we could see putting money into and putting it in the plan right now this year, like climate change infrastructure spending that would create jobs and help 70 people? paul: i have in norma's -- and
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help so many people. paul: i have respect for larry and i think is making a category error. he is thinking constraint is we have a certain amount of money and we will spend it on this are that. but that is not actually a problem. the u.s. government has asked borrowing capacity, and the constraint on doing the things we ought to be doing is not how much money is there, can we afford it? the constraint is actually, in the end it is going to be political. i'm very much for a big infrastructure invest in the future program. but that is going to be taking place not this year, maybe not even next year, but afterwards. and the reasons it might not happen are going to be, if people feel well, you spent a lot of money, and it did not work, and the economy did not recover that well, which is what happened to obama. so, in fact, spending on pandemic recovery now, spending generously, is not a competing
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with a longer run investment program. in fact, it is a precondition for that longer run investment program. we need to get people back to work and we need to yet people through this with minimum damage. and only then will be be in a position to go about doing the things that larry and i both agree we ought to be doing, looking past this year. kathleen:-so haidi: we know for countries like u.s. and others, the ability to borrow is not a concern. but if you take a look at the chinese example, that is the way, the effectiveness of taking on the debt and how it is targeted? paul: there is no effective constraint on the amount of debt. with the u.s., we have just barely got positive interest rates on 30 year bonds and now, real interest rate, and still negative real interest rates on
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shorter-term. given that the economy will grow over time, servicing the debt is just not going to be a problem. so i really do not worry about it. the level of debt is not in my top 10 list of things to worry about, whereas being able to get people through this crisis, with minimum financial, personal damage, is near the top of the list. and then, you have building support for the idea that the government can do good things, so that we can go and address the longer-term. address climate change, address deteriorating infrastructure, that is what you need to do. and you do not do that by nitpicking out the details and say there is a few billion dollars here that maybe is not going to exactly the right people. haidi: some people worry about the debt burden for future
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generations. some people worry about the firefighting whatever it takes to get to the immediate crisis. what do you think is the most useful construct to understand this crisis, which you and other economists have said is unlike anything we have seen before, and clearly that has to filter into the way we deal with it? paul: yes, the crisis, the economic crisis, is more like a natural disaster than it is like a conventional recession. and fighting it is like disaster relief. it is also in some ways like fighting a war. we have to fight directly, we need to fight the pandemic and get shots in arms and schools reopened and all that stuff. it is also about making it survivable, making sure. people's incomes are supported. . that state and local governments are not forced into crippling cuts in services. i am in new york city here, keeping the subways and buses
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running is all part of this. and when you're trying to fight a war, when you are faced with a temporary emergency that you know it's temporary but it is huge, you do not say ok, how big is the output gap? how big sharp military budget be to close the output gap? you say, what will it take to win this war? will be ought to do now is say how much should doing need to spend now? we can afford this, how much do we need to spend to get there? and the answer is something close to this $1.9 trillion we are talking about. kathleen: that seems hard to measure. let's pull of the chart of yield curves in the u.s. let's keep the war analogy going. maybe you are winning the war or it is almost over or you are far enough along you do not me to land so many troops are billed to many tanks -- or lamb so many tanks -- or land so many tanks
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because of what you have already done your heading down that road. 70 people asking inflation, overheating, the fed may have to raise rates? and the idea again that maybe the stimulus could be rethought, redesigned, and sort of retargeted in a way, what you think? paul: well, first of all, we are, this thing will be over. and we can see the end. but there is a pretty big chasm between now and then. and we could still lose this thing right? it is because -- if because we are not providing enough aid, people rush back into too much in person contact, we have too much pressure for premature reopening, and we get the infections going again and then the variants get ahead of the vaccine, that is a nightmare scenario. they're still a chance we could lose this, we probably won't and i'm optimistic about where we will be at this time next year. but it is still a chasm we need to build up bridge across this
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year. the overheating, this is a very big program and the u.s. economy does not have unlimited capacity, and there is -- it is within the realm of possible. if you do the math, and the math is highly uncertain, if you do the math it is possible we are going to see some overheating. i think it is going to be minor but i could be wrong about that. the fed can't if necessary tighten money. and the risks are hugely asymmetric. if we do each too much and the fed has to raise rates, well, that will be annoying. if we do too little, and the thing falls short, then we are repeating the sad story of what happened after 2009 all over again. we do not want to be in that position. so the risks are very heavily weighted towards go big, and be prepared to pull back a bit if necessary later, but not now. >> kathleen: i want to keep the focus on joe biden and washington policy. a different kind of policy you have talked about, trade.
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that is where you won your nobel prize. janet yellen and others have signaled the let's stay tough on china stance. what is your view on trade with china. should biden remove tariffs on china? paul: the china story is complicated, because the chinese are not good actors. it was not the case that china was a blameless victim of u.s. protectionism. the trouble was, protectionism that trump did was completely, it was incoherent, and it was not aimed at all of the real issues. the real issues are chinese industrial policy, to a certain extent, chinese intellectual property. so, getting tough with china but not smart went makes a whole lot of sense. -- getting tough with china in a smart way makes a lot of sense. the more you know about
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international trade policy the less worked up you tend to get about it. those of us who have studied it are not happy with the trade war but did not see it as an much but disaster as those people who are not as into trade policy issues really work, so there is no -- it is not as though removing those comp tariffs is the most essential thing. you cannot talk about anything in the united states without politics. what the republicans and dying to portray biden as soft on china, never mind the realities, he should be a no rush. make sure he has a smart policy not easily characterized as getting wimpy on the china issue. haidi: we had a recent study from the national bureau of economic research taking a look at the minimum wage debate. part of the research found there is a substantial body of evidence that points to the negative effects when it comes to low skilled or less skilled workers, and their unemployment.
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kathleen drew attention to this report as well, and we are wondering whether you have read that report and does it change your views on whether minimum wage reform should happen in the u.s.? paul: i think i have read that report, but it is not report -- the national bureau of economic research is a network of people, all of whom get to put out working papers. i can put out a nber report whenever i like. it is not the same as a study that has the in premature of the bureau's research. very few negative effects. but there is a faction that keeps rejecting the methodology the rest of the profession is adopting, and keep saying no, there are negative effects and these things happen. i will not speculate about motives. the overwhelming --we have a lot of national experiments because -- natural experiments because
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states change their wages all the time in neighboring states do not and the overwhelming body of evidence says the employment effects are possibly negative but small. i'm not going to say here is a new paper that somehow refutes what dozens of previous papers based on very careful collection of evidence have found. the overwhelming evidence is that in a moment wages do much less harm to employment that economists use to think and they do a lot to increase incomes, they do a lot to alleviate poverty. >> it is a look at the studies that a been done since the early 1990's, but we know you think and that's what counts. for the president and people across this country, forgiving student debt? it is not just republicans who have questions, there are democrats all kinds of people. we know there are people who desperately needed, and people who took on debt and other
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people who say, why give them some relief? one, republican said, this is an insult to blue-collar workers, people who do not go to college. how do you tile of those pieces together and come up with an equitable plan? paul: i on the generous side. blue-collar workers took on debt to go to vocational schools that did not do much for them. or they were told you need to get a college degree and end up not getting a college degree and ended up voted with that. -- and loaded with debt. there is a caricature that says people took on student debt to go to harvard. that is such a tiny thing, those elite schools. part of the problem with elite schools as they are so tiny, that is a tiny handful of people. and there are many, many americans who, in good faith, took on debt but were misled.
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took on lead to go to for-profit education that was worthless. or took on debt based on expectations of income returns they were fed that were unrealistic. and this is something, we are giving people substantial debt relief is something you can do to improve the lives of a lot of people. it is not rewarding irresponsibility. i actually am much closer to the elizabeth warren position that i am to the very modest stuff we are hearing from the white house right now. haidi: paul krugman, noble laureate in economics and a new york times columnist, and a distinguished professor as well as the author of the new book, arguing with zombies. plenty more to come here on "bloomberg daybreak: australia." this is bloomberg. ♪
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they have seen their global growth forecast boosted from 4.5% to 6% through the year and powerful policy and targeted covert responses improving corporate balance sheet and jp morgan sees the u.s. taking the baton in this race set to outperform china's v-shaped rebound. over stronger u.s. growth they do not foresee a temper tantrum with the fed tolerating higher interest growth and inflation along with other central banks. haidi: we are seeing a growing increasing on return to some kinds of normal seeing investors dumping defensive plays like health care. sophie: yes, your to date you have the hot rally in health care fizzling out, it is now the biggest laggard in asia. you have the health-care industry in asia set for a third straight monthly decline with the reopening and recovery trades taking paul position. -- taking pole position.
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trading higher versus earnings compared to 18 times for regional. stay-at-home plays an internet having a stellar run. globally risk assets are back invoke -- invoke. -- in vogue. energy and technology best con -- candidates for an inflation tracking strategy. haidi: australia's face-off with google and facebook continues as a law that would force them to pay publishers for news is being introduced in parliament. a lot happened over the weekend. >> good morning, yes. things became quite heated last week when facebook effectively switched off news on its platform for australians. also with the flick of a switch
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took dozens of other pages off-line including charities and health department sites that crucially provide information on covid-19. the government blasted that is an attack on us trillion sovereignty -- on us trillion sovereignty. the health minister -- on australian sovereignty. the health minister said his department would not pay for any advertising on facebook. facebook is back at the negotiating table and treasuries josh frydenberg told local media he had talks with mark zuckerberg over the weekend. >> australia is a relatively small market for facebook, why is the social media let form putting up a fight there? >> you're right, it is a tiny market, just 17 million users here in australia out of 2.8 billion globally. but facebook knows this legislation is being watched closely by regulators worldwide.
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they, like regulators and australia, are concerned about the power to disseminate information and their dominance of online advertising that has come at the expense of the traditional news media. so it has drawn a line in the sand here in australia. but there are concerns about how the news blackout could backfir. n says yes and discussing it with leaders around the world -- morrison says he has been discussing it with leaders around the world. kathleen: plenty more head on daybreak. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ haidi: good morning. we are counting down to asia's major market open. kathleen: welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: asia." our top stories this hour, prime minister scott morrison is among the first to receive vaccine in australia. the u.s. faces another grim milestone, about half a million covid deaths.
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