quickly. there are just no stabilizers. >> there is a lot of buying power out there with pick up the man. >> we see people take the money that they get from their income and spend it like mad. the >> inflation is the reality, and that's probably the only thing that will knock the market off course. announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance." jon: this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom keene once again, it is about the bond market breaking down, yields breaking out. north of 1.30. tom: a lot of good essays outcome a love good research come all about inflation or no inflation, looking at the indicators. you can cut it, jon, both ways. jon: the pace is fast, the --

not inflation. real yields over the last week breaking out. that is the challenge to risk assets. tom: real yields are a moonshot. i look at it a lot this morning, jon, and it is really not a breakout yet, but we are right there, that if it continues, that gets the intention of wall street -- the attention of wall street. lisa: the key question is, how much of this reflation trade is jay powell going to tolerate? how much will the fed take a look at how much yields are rising? signifying that they are going to buy unger term bonds. what is the balance of allowing growth to pick up when not creating financial instability echo jon: let's get a price action this friday morn. good money money. i got through the weekend just up -- let's get the price action this friday morning -- good monday morning.

1.367%. i will just keep talking. euro up about .1%. the copper move, really big over the last couple of weeks. lisa: it is stemming from shortages and also the reflation trade. put central bankers front and center in terms of how they respond to this, whether they are going to allow financial conditions to tighten naturally or whether they might even encourage them to avoid some sort of overheating later. it seems like that is not likely. wristing lagarde will be the first in a parade of central bankers speaking. -- christine lagarde will be the first in a parade of central bankers speaking. at 9:00 a.m., janet yellen will speak. very interesting to hear how she views overheating as less of a concern than not going far enough. you have to wonder whether policymakers are taking too much of a lesson from what we have seen over recent decades. perhaps this composition has changed with both monetary and

fiscal stimulus, and a disruption we have not seen since 1918, which is idiosyncratic in its nature. at 1:00 p.m., the -- really? tom: yeah, really, idiosyncratic -- lisa: house democrats are going to do the markup for the stimulus bill. expect heated debate among democrats about the $1 minimum wage -- the $15 minimum wage. this is the bill that they hope to get through the senate by the end of the next three weeks, hoping to fast-track this among a republican pushback. this is a key part. tom: i'm glad you brought this up because this is really important. this percolated over the weekend, we are finally here on stimulus bill. this was great vaccine news. it will be fascinating, really the next 48 hours in washington. jon: we have got this massive

fiscal package on deck in the united states with treasury yields breaking out with it. here is the problem for the rest of the world full-time eric nielsen wrote about this over the weekend. are we seeing unwarranted -- treasury yields breaking down, driven by a monster fiscal plan, a monster fiscal u.s. stim is plan, not a german fiscal stimulus plan, not an australian fiscal stimulus plan. we have seen australian yields breakout even more. this morning what is interesting is the 10 yield is unchanged. it is stable after a big move in the last couple of weeks. i think we are at the point where central banks outside the fed -- they are starting to see their yields breakout, and i think we start to get a pushback pretty soon. tom: euro swissie -- it has broken back to where it was a couple of years ago. yesterday money, john ringwood and stephen hankey writing in the washington journal, -- in the wall street journal --

inflation improving, front and center with growth back to world war ii. jon: merrill and bank of america, the head of cio market strategy. we have the point now, joe, where these levels will test wrist assets -- risk assets. joe: they will, jon. when i look at inflation, it is nice to talk about inflation and deflation, and it is a result of the growth that is coming. if you look at the atlanta fed, gdp right now at 9.5% for the first quarter, which is reflective of higher yield curve. that is china like numbers coming out of the united states. where watching inflation carefully but with more driven by this underlying demand and the snapback and the output gap for unemployment -- for employment. it is higher for now. tom: what is the single point

yield on 10 year yield where you begin to say inflation? what is the level that matters? joe: about 2%, tom, about 2.5%. it is the velocity come how fast we get there. we have a year-end forecast, 1.75. it is how fast we get there, and how disorderly or orderly. tom: you have to fold in the factor of hospitalizations and vaccines. and if we are wrong about the reemployment in america, if it is faster than anybody thinks, that full gin this calculus. jon: the news out of israel is really positive over the weekend as well, that the vaccinations -- maybe the vaccinations did not stop the spread full-time it looks like it does in a big way. joe: can that to me with -- lisa: and that to me is a take away. you do get protection, and it changes the way you can operate in this world, getting closer to

herd immunity. joe quinlan, there is a question here about whether this is a viable dip, given the fact that we are seeing fundamental shifts in the economy, that we are potentially going to be getting this stimulus, that the world is going to be potentially reopening earlier than expected, which raises the question, by the dip, if not the policy, you can follow with the large-cap stocks. given the fact that this inflationary push may be real. joe: i would still buy the dips. if we get a pullback, a pause, for sure we will be buying large-cap stocks. they will be doing better. europe is three months behind in terms of opening up, but they will come back to the service side of the economy. china is looking better, japan. so, yes, we're looking at any pullback is a buying opportunity based on the stingless, pent-up demand, capex households, you name it. jon: e.m. equities have had a really nice start to the years as well.

-- two the year as well. the idea that we have a weaker dollar or a dollar that stays where it is right now, looking at real yields started to breakout here, joe, kit juckes of socgen ask the question this morning whether that is a challenge. do you think it is? joe: i think the weaker dollar store is oversold. i think dollar has a stronger bid than most realize because of the growth dynamics coming forward, earnings, and the competitiveness of u.s. companies. i would not be betting too much against the dollar. tom: this is really important. the first deflation talk of this week for us was at 6.0708. good deflation talk. the other thing i would point out, the most important thing is to reassess earnings and revenue expectations at corporations. it is a total mystery out there into august and september. jon: the good news already is that we have already seen

positive year on year earnings and revenue growth for s&p 500 companies. did that come earlier than expected? joe: not necessarily. we went into the year expecting stronger than expected gdp growth, earnings growth coming here we are. we think that will continue into the worry? the markets will start looking to 22, and things get softer. the big stimulus kind of wears off into 2022. the markets are pricing it better than expected, gdp and earnings growth for now. jon: so far they have been right. joe quinlan of america private bank, head of cio work it -- head of cio market strategy. it is important to go back to the ellen zentner call from morgan stanley. it was not just about the upgrade to 20, it was about the upgrade to 21, the idea of that growth boom asking a little bit more then this year alone.

tom: we are coming up on a one-year rotation. that bridge out to where -- you wonder where the bridge out to where is going to be on the better vaccine news. i thought it was extraordinary. steven major at hsbc publishing and west ham. i thought it was a really intelligent note. jon: it set the real story. forth in the table. tom: my issue here, jon, and it brought a tear to my. you understand it better to me. going back to 76, where they were relegated behind coventry city. that was outrageous. lisa: i would like to offer up, steven major, an apology.

tom, i do want to raise one question. you are making fun of me with reflation talk. i want to clarify that. disinflation is a concern that some people have, stagflation, the idea that you have inflation that picks up because of the monetary supply that you were talking about. you don't necessarily have the comments are growth, and mervyn king, firmly of the house of lords in the united kingdom, had an op-ed today in bloomberg opinion talking about how we are not investing enough in the actual fundamentals of the company. tom: that's exactly what lauren summers says -- what lawrence summers said, the exact same thing. to me it is simple, go back to the 1960's with tax credits, motivate them to invest. lisa: at a certain point, do we start to care about stagflation, the idea that inflation of goods and services go up but wages, not so much? jon: inflation. lisa, what's going on?

lisa: what? i'm just saying it is a real concern. jon: i appreciate that concern this money. lisa abramowicz along with tom and jonathan ferro. from new york, this is "bloomberg surveillance." karina: with the first word news, i'm karina mitchell. a study from israel shows that the pfizer-biontech vaccine stops the majority of people from being infected. it is the first real world indication that vaccination can stop the spread of coronavirus. some scientists are disputing its accuracy. in the u.k. today, prime minister boris johnson will announce all schools in england will reopen starting march 8. johnson will be in parliament, outlining how the virus lockdown will be lifted over the next few months. more social contact will be

allowed for march 29, including outdoor gatherings of either six people or two households. airlines in the u.s., japan, and south korea has grounded following 777's following the engine explode in over the weekend. it made an emerging -- a flight made an emergency landing in denver after an engine explosion that rained down engine parts over denver. -- he reiterated the need to improve what he calls unreasonable tariffs and also cited curbs on chinese media and students of other global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, areas of concern. i am karina mitchell. there is much more to come. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jon: from new york city, this is open bloomberg surveillance." live on television, alongside

tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. you will find the y in the bond market. real yields breaking out, yields 1.36 70 on the u.s. 10 year. euro-dollar, a little bit of euro strength in the mix. euro-dollar, 1.2131. tom keene, elsewhere, copper absolutely flying. tom: that is on fundamentals as well. i notice the bloomberg commodity index breaking up as well. two big figures, 24.0 eight, not a good number yet. nevertheless, there it is. on washington, on what it means for you and global wall street, emily wilkins joins us now. the stimulus today, what are you and kevin cirilli going to watch for? in the lure of the marble halls, what is the stimulus thing that is of interest today? emily: this is a huge test for

democrats, the first time they are trying to pass a bill. they only need democrats to vote for it, but can they get all the democrats on board? there is a lot of consensus around the bill but a lot of debate, particularly around the $15 minimum wage. later this week, particularly when it goes to the senate, that is where that could hit some rough terrain. tom: over the weekend, for those eating caviar or big mac meals or whatever, people not focused on the market. really at risk to be part of the biden administration. is that the beginning of the power of the moderates, and will we see that kind of power in the stimulus debate? emily: on track to be omb director until joe manchin came out and said he would not be supporting her. at this point it does not look like there will be any republican supporting her either, so yes, her nomination is very much in jeopardy right now. this is the first time we have

really seen joe manchin come forward, flex his muscle against democrats and president biden. so there are going to be other opportunities in the future for him to do that, although he has indicated he does want to see this to millis past. he is supportive of president biden's efforts to help the american people at this point. jon: later today, we will hear from boris johnson outlining plans to get things reopened because it is progressing so well. do you expect joe biden to do the same thing? emily: if you look at what president biden has said in regards to schools opening, you can see there is pressure there. just the other week we were hearing that there metric of success with 50% of schools open one day a week, now they are saying they want all k-eight schools open five days a week by the end of april. that seems to be pressure on the biden administration to encourage schools to reopen,

even if teachers do not have their vaccinations. jon: a lot of people's decisions over the weekend -- lisa, april, john mccarthy writing over the weekend, "the current trajectory , i expect covid will be mostly gone by april, allowing americans to resume normal life." lisa: i think the study out of -- that is a game changer. emily, given that there potentially is a game changer sooner than later, how much pressure is there on democrats to ratchet back perhaps aspects of this bill in order to get an infrastructure bill through leader in the year that could stimulate further growth and have longer-lasting consequences? emily: at this point democrats have done the work to compile this 1.9 trillion dollar stimulus package. at this point they would be wasting time to go back and make changes to it.

it looks like we are going ahead with the stimulus. we are checking to see fed chair jerome powell talk to lawmakers this week about the importance of having the stimulus, how even though things are looking good that unemployment is still high and there's still room for the economy for this amount to come and do good rather than negative. lisa: let's say they do get their bill passed in the next three weeks, this goes to a key question and tension in the markets. is there the political will in washington, d.c., to get the further bill done on something more structural in nature, whether it is infrastructure or something else? right now it does not sound like there is, that there is debate among democrats themselves and that republicans are not on board. am i wrong? emily: i think right now everyone is focused on the stimulus bill, but you're absolutely right. present biden, the biden administration, lawmakers are beginning to talk about what a larger infrastructure will -- larger infrastructure package

will look like. it is hard to know where the fault lines are going to be here, but democrats have a couple of opportunities to pass things with only democratic votes, without having to get republicans on board. the stimulus is one opportunity, but they have another opportunity and i don't think any democrat in washington wants to waste that chance. tom: emily, what will we see as we think of 500,000 deaths? what is the actual agenda today for washington to try to understand the scope and scale of 500,000 deaths? emily: it is a difficult number to comprehend. americans have been asked to comprehend so many large numbers in the last year and what it looks like. we will see president biden commemorate today, hitting that mark, remember americans who lost their lives, and we will expect to see lawmakers using this occasion to continue to press the need for a stimulus bill, for a bill that is going

to get funding out there for vaccines, and for helping individuals to say, look, this is not over yet, even though there might be good signs on the horizon. jon: emily, thank you. it is a dark moment, and the number does not capture how dark things will be over the next 12 months. tom: this is where slope matters, folks, on the deaths of americans from this pandemic. i have two and only two points that tell me maybe it is over, maybe it is flat, maybe it will get better. jon:, right now i cannot say the trend is going to stop and we need to start thinking about 600,000 deaths. but i'm telling you, you get 3, 4, 5, 6 more data points and then you have to reflect toward optimism. jon: i think we can conclude things are getting a lot better and quite quickly. lisa: this is the reason inflation trades are getting so much steam. if we have this additional

spending and the additional follow on that will recharge the market, people are saying this time will be different. jon: global risk rally or dispersion? we start to see some real dispersion amongst economies. tom: as bill gross used to say, you see the locomotive for the global economy, or does it disperse away? again, i'm going to go back to asia and to that thing we used to talk about, which is world trade and global trade. it is simply where we see that. jon: coming up on the program, j.p.morgan's fixed income portfolio manager. a beautiful new york city this morning, this monday morning, equity futures down 26, the s&p 500, up .7%. yields up three basis points to 1.3636. we keep climbing.

more still to come. for our audience worldwide seen on television, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. chairman powell's tomorrow, governor brainard, what do they think about what we have seen in this bond market?

jon:jon: from new york city, this is bloomberg surveillance for our audience worldwide. a look at the market right now. we are down about .5%. this is the wrong board. this is the bond market year to date. there is the right board. nasdaq futures coming in more than one percentage point. let's look at the nominal's. switch the board, please. there we go. yields up by .2%. huge fiscal stimulus plan coming in the united states of america. i will show you some countries where there is not a $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus plan coming. germany, australia.

look at these moves year to date. the aussies absolutely flying. in germany, yields up on the year by about 26 basis points. they also do not have a one point $9 trillion -- $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus plan coming. christine lagarde of the ecb later this morning. i think it is important. elsewhere, the treasury yields start to drag everyone else with them. we are seeing it on financial conditions it little too early for the liking of some of these central bankers. tom: euro-swiss is showing week swiss. -- weak swiss. diana amoa with a real focus on emerging markets joins us this morning. diana, i want to look in your research notes.

you cannot buy em a blind. you cannot buy big countries blind either. what are the distinctions now of placing capital in emerging markets? diana: right now, the big driver and the thing playing out in developing markets is growth. the vaccine rollout has been a big focus on the markets, and i think there is growing confidence now as the base accelerates, as we have more -- as the pace accelerates, as we have more vexing coming into play. in some cases, we might see reopening of economies, full reopening's in cases of the u.s. and u.k. in emerging markets, very similar stories are playing out. the focus has very much been on focusing on those economies where a rollout of the vaccine has been credible and is well mounted. you look at somewhere like chile.

chile stands out among emerging markets as one that is really ahead of the curve, ruling out vaccines, and that has treated well. tom: i know you're a great student of this. what is so important here is the actuation -- maturation of emerging market bonds. do the commodity em nations have a more sophisticated bond pool to play with? diana: by and large, commodity exporters tends to have more issuance. they are larger economies, so that is not unexpected. that side of things is actually a positive for them. liquidity is not necessarily an issue. where we are seeing interest and opportunity is now is in the smaller stories within emerging markets. markets that have less or less lightly to be impacted by the big duration moves we are seeing

in the u.s.. lisa: so much of the emerging markets call has hinged on the weaker dollar consensus and here we have a growing number of naysayers who argue have american exceptionalism, that you have an economy that is going to break away and accelerate because of the vaccination schedule and because of the fiscal support and stimulus congress is passing. how much does that disrupt your thesis, your argument that you need to go into emerging markets in order to get any yields? diana: so far what we have seen is most markets have been higher in yields as treasuries have moved. spreads have held up well in em. the big distinction until now has been the move higher has been led by break even. what we saw last week is concerning for the outlook going forward, where it is no longer a breakeven pricing of rates in the u.s. it is being led by real rates.

that is something we think the fed is likely to be more sensitive to because not only are we seeing that over to em, we are also seeing that impacting u.s. markets. you see mortgage rates starting to rise. we had the biggest rise in u.s. mortgage rates we have seen since august of last year. while the economy is looking promising, the recovery is still at the early stages and quite fragile. we think the fed is going to lean against this. lisa: are you saying a key component of your emerging markets call his faith in the fed to buy more bonds to press yields and we start seeing real yields continue to rise? diana: no, that is not what i am saying at all. what i'm saying is, if it is rates moving higher because growth is picking up globally and it is an orderly repricing higher of rates, real and breakeven, that is in good -- a good environmental -- environment for em. if we see rates running ahead of

what we are seeing the data, that becomes a concern. right now where we are, the data is not there. markets are pricing in stimulus that has not yet been approved. that is the big distinction. we need to see that growth being realized, and we need to see that inflation being realized. that is something that is quite key that they are focused on. jon: chairman powell tomorrow. there is some kind of intervention, usually verbal first. do you expect real action off the back of that? diana: it is probably too early for them to do anything more. they will want to sequence the tools they used to talk to markets and munich it with markets. this week we have speakers coming in, starting with today, where we will see the first speaker. tomorrow, we have jerome powell speaking.

we already had jerome powell speaking in previous weeks, reiterating the messages. it will be key to see them doubling down on that message. while the outlook is looking better, the economy is far from on strong enough footing for them to ease back. if markets still continue to price in or accelerate too fast, it is likely we might see more tools come into play. jon: this is the issue at the moment. a couple weeks ago if you had asked me if chairman powell would say, stay on script, there was a struggle to break through 1.30. tom: the one person i am watching this week is richard clarida, head of columbia economics, one of our great academics on monetary theory. if there is one person who is going to say one sentence, it is

going to be richard clarida. jon: he has provided guidance over the last couple years. they be chairman powell has fumbled things a little bit. diana, do you have a number in mind that starts to affect elsewhere? is there something higher or are we there? diana: i think the technical challenge has been 1.38 as a key level. as we approach that come up you're starting to see a spill over into other financial assets , which the fed will be watching closely. i think 1.5 zero is another want to watch because that is the point where the 10 year yield is equivalent to the s&p. for people who've been saying, why would i want to buy fixed income when yields from equities are higher? it becomes a different conversation. fixed income is yielding enough and the extent that we see any

growth come downs going forward to be meaningful again. that is going to be one level we are watching closely. lisa: i'm thinking about what you have been saying and struggling with one aspect. the data has not been showing the growth that perhaps markets are pricing in, but markets are forward-looking. they are looking to the reopening of the economy and expectation of stimulus being passed. what if the fed is wrong? with the fed buys a host of longer duration bonds and allows risk assets to keep going up and that reflation comes back online in the growth? does that increase the chances the fed will have to hike more rapidly on the back end? diana: for the fed to change their conversation around when they will start hiking, you need to see inflation coming in for a sustained period. we already got guidance from flared up -- clarida.

it is difficult for me to see the fed in the next months starting to hike rates. they might signal they will be rolling back before that. we expected that to happen in q4 , but if the economic data looks promising they might start preparing for the move. in terms of hiking, we need to see realized inflation above target for a sustained period of time and that is not yet where we are. jon: always great to catch up with you. diana amoa of j.p. morgan. good to see a. -- good to see you. an output gap that closes aggressively and quickly may get it done. looking where the labor market is now, in the view of most people on the fed, there is a ton of work to do. tom: there are labor indicators

getting us back to february levels. our someone chart -- i cannot tell you where -- showing manufacturing employment getting nicely back to pre-pandemic levels. you get five or six sectors doing that, that changes the discussion. jon: we need to see that in the pmi's, particularly in europe. is it too early to say we are seeing a tantrum on the yield side of things? i wonder how limiting a move like this is. tom: nice dovetail here. then later -- and the equity space, saying the temper tantrum is overdone. if the 10 year yields logarithmic am a there is not true convexity yet. -- logarithmic, there is not true convexity yet. it is close, a couple more days. jon: the bond story.

from new york city this morning cannot good morning to you all. i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures falling lower on the s&p 500. we are down about 31 points on the s&p 500. we are negative .8 percent. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> in new york with the first word news, i'm karina mitchell. it is the first real world indication that vaccination will curb the spread of the coronavirus. the pfizer and biontech vaccine appears to stop the majority of recipients in israel from becoming infected. the vaccine had an 89% efficacy in preventing laboratory confirmed infections. the u.s. and iran are sparring over how to revive that nuclear deal. over the weekend, tehran renewed its demand that the biden administration rejoin the accord

before talks can resume. the u.s. responses that iran is isolated diplomatically and the ball is in their court. the next phase of president biden's legislative agenda is taking shape. it is an economic package will be potentially larger than the $1.9 trillion virus relief bill in congress. it could be the biggest infrastructure spending commitment since the new deal. it may be unveiled as early as next month. in texas, a number of people lucky enough to have power during last week's bitter cold will pay the price. they are getting massive electric bills. the methodology is unique to texas, where the retail power industry is entirely deregulated. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more

than 120 countries. i am karina mitchell. much more to come. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we are now on track to have enough vaccine supply for all americans by the end of july.

that does not mean it will all be in americans' arms, but enough vaccine will be available by that time. jon: president joe biden there on vaccine supply in the united states of america. the outlook in this country getting better, getting brighter week after week. i'm jonathan ferro. looking at the equity market now, there is one story from the bond market, putting the equity market lower. we are down -.8%. yields are not higher in germany. your german 10 year, negative point 31%. christine lagarde speaking in a couple hours' time. tom: the 10 year yield coming off a 1.39% about three hours ago, maybe four hours ago. we have come down to one point 36%. we are watching it closely again. i am focused on the swiss franc, which is a bellwether of the changed landscape. right now on the changed

landscape of this virus, this pandemic, all the good news we are observing when we look at hospitalizations and improved statistics of deaths, is joshua sharfstein. mr. bloomberg, his engineering school at johns hopkins and founder of bloomberg lp and this radio and tv property as well. joshua sharfstein, i get upset when i hear the media talk about herd immunity in a sublist of phrases. you and i know it is an interesting differential equation. explain how pros like you take the fancy math and get us to where herd immunity clicks in. dr. sharfstein: i think there are models of herd immunity and then the reality of herd immunity. people can estimate when we think herd immunity might kick in and what that means for people, but then we really have to see it.

those models are generally based on assumptions. one of the key, important points to remember about herd immunity is you can have generally herd immunity, meaning cases really do not have a good opportunity to keep spreading, but then you have community where there is a lot of vulnerability. few people have been vaccinated. there could be serious outbreaks as well as hoss playstation's -- hospitalizations and death. the second question is what will it really take. that may depend on how these variants behave. tom: one of the factors as the virulence of whatever you're talking about. have you changed your perspective about how virulent this is given the new variants out there? dr. sharfstein: there is evidence some of the new variants may be more lethal. it does not appear to be fundamentally changing the epidemiology of the virus so far

in the united states. right now, cases are coming down. hospitalization are coming down -- hospitalizations are coming down. with 500,000 people who have died, we know how serious this pandemic is. we cannot let up. we have to keep pushing it down so we can minimize the chance we get in trouble. jon: do you think we are underselling the vaccine at all? dr. sharfstein: i think the vaccine is pretty awesome really. if you think about it, within a year we have an incredibly effective vaccine with strong safety records, and you see now the data from israel showing staggering declines in risk for people who haven't vaccinated. -- who have been vaccinated. there is no reason to undersell the vaccine, but we should not think in a week everything is going to be fine. there are a lot of risks out there. i am telling people, you know that list of things you want to

do when this is all over? you cannot do them all today, but if you have been vaccinated there are probably some things on the list you may be able to do. jon: don't you think it would be more optimal to tell people who have had the vaccine they can do things on the list? wouldn't that be a better way of selling the vaccine, to encourage people to get the vaccine by saying you can return to normal once you have had it? dr. sharfstein: you can start to return to normal. some people are really itching to say it is all done, and that is not really a great message for everyone right now. can say, for example, that people who have been vaccinated can get together for dinner. you can go see your grandkids. perhaps, depending on the situation, with a few modifications, but a lot closer than you were before. i am fielding questions every day from people. when i start to tell them yes after a year of telling them no. lisa: it has a psychological

impact on everyone, particularly younger kids who have seen this as a significant portion of their life. going forward, what is the timeframe that you see at this point where you expect anybody to be able to go to their local drugstore or a stadium and get vaccinated? dr. sharfstein: i defer to the federal government. i think they are talking about this summer for adults, more or less. obviously it is going to take longer for kids because studies have to be done. we are going to see that this is going to turn from an excess demand situation quickly, in a matter of weeks or a couple months, to a vaccine acceptance situation, where really we are going to be waiting for people to get ready for vaccination. we need to start that process now, offering vaccines, answering questions, doing mobile teams. there is a vast inequity in access to vaccination now, and

we should fix that. that is one to turn into the most important end game for this virus. jon: we appreciate your time this morning. joshua sharfstein thereof johns hopkins. -- there of johns hopkins. whereby there are a group of people who have had the vaccine, a group of people who have not meet and you get to do things i cannot do. tom: i do not know what i'm doing different than if i did not because so many other people are out there. my life has not changed that much. i was a guess it is science and that we are learning they by day. there was a big pause for that terrible cold in the midwest. i am looking at the incremental data -- day-to-day statistics. the trend is your friend. the trends on hospitalizations, i am looking out of them at the four regions of the country. the midwest and west are wild

trends. jon: israel, which always provides a forward look. data coming out of israel, really encouraging. lisa: we are running a massive experiment in real time. rolling out this vaccine has been approved. it does appear states were not learning all of the effects in terms of herd exposure rental after it gets run out, which is why israel is a template. half of adults have received their first shot. jon: another reason to drive treasury yields higher. the outlook is getting brighter and the treasury market can smell it. that has been the story in small caps. tom: look at the 10 year yields, printing a legit 1.37%. if you get to 1.38%, you get toward that convexity. jon: a ship higher in bond yields, a move lower in the equity market.

looking for a ton of churn beneath the surface. we will catch up with mike wilson of morgan stanley in the next hour. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> small business sector has really taken a terrible hit. >> you've got a lot of buying power out there with pent-up demand that continues to build. >> we have seen people take the money they get from the government and their income and spend it like mad. >> i think inflation is an eventuality, and that is the only thing that will probably knock the market off course. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures down 0.75%. yields higher by four basis points. tom: looking at the bloomberg terminal, good morning on radio and television, it is simple.