>> small business sector has really taken a terrible hit. >> you've got a lot of buying power out there with pent-up demand that continues to build. >> we have seen people take the money they get from the government and their income and spend it like mad. >> i think inflation is an eventuality, and that is the only thing that will probably knock the market off course. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures down 0.75%. yields higher by four basis points. tom: looking at the bloomberg terminal, good morning on radio and television, it is simple.

the 10 year yield spikes up. we are not up to the 1.39% highs of the day, but we have gone from under 1.36% will over 1.37% in the matter of a cup of coffee. jonathan: this week, it is going to be the fed speak and how they respond to what we have seen in this market. tom: we are on the same page -- rarely are we on the same page like we are now. it is about the tins 30's curves -- the tens-30's curve, to see if you get a steepening. lisa: if you look at the fives- 30's, it has reached the highest point since 2014. i'm not correcting you, i am just explaining what i am saying. tom: it is like a marriage,

explaining. [laughter] lisa: is there something you would like to say, tom? tom: there's nothing i'd like to say. . i'm taking a walk. lisa: this reflation trade is based in the fact that we are having a faster reopening than expected and the stimulus plan coming through. jonathan: i love that. i'm not correcting you, i am just explaining what you said. [laughter] on the equity market, futures down on the s&p 500. -27, down 0.7%. yields are higher by four basis points in the last 20 minutes or so, 1.3738%. crude, $59.69. tom: matt miller talking up the tens spread. i have no idea what that is. so jon, should we go to a point right now where we are not correcting and just explaining? [laughter] jonathan: just explaining. lisa explains what to look for

for the rest of the week. lisa: i am never going to live that down. i will explain to you that at 8:45 a.m., christine lagarde will be speaking at the european semester conference. very interesting to hear what you have been talking about all morning. how do they respond to a tightening of financial conditions that does not stem from their fiscal plan, from their covid-19 vaccination rollout, and the fact that this could allow longer-term growth to pick up? at 11:00, janet yellen speaking at a "new york times" conference on overheating. she talks about how there is a bigger risk of undershooting at this point that overshooting. also very interesting, the relationship between the treasury and the fed as yields go up. how much are they relying on the fed to suppress those yields? at 1:00 p.m., the house budget committee will take up the $1.9 trillion stimulus package. we have talked about the $15 minimum wage.

state and local funding will be an issue of contention. but people will be looking for signs there is consensus among democrats to push forward yet another bill on infrastructure spending later in the year. jonathan: lisa, good explanation. things are getting better. a headline crossing the board from a german sports manufacture were that we all pronounce differently, weighing in and lifting its dividend to a proposed three dollars per share. tom: a good time to buy cooper to for about $2.8 billion -- cooper to for about $2.8 billion -- cooper tire for about two point dollars. jonathan: copper, we talked about it in the previous hour, flying. tom: there's no question about it. i just did the math. you can do this easily on the bloomberg terminal. you need one at home. it is a nice move, exactly three standard deviations. jonathan: was that the plug for the bloomberg terminal? "you need one."

[laughter] lisa: you get a bloomberg terminal, you get a bloomberg terminal. jonathan: that would be quite the upper episode -- the opera episode -- the oprah episode. jonathan: let's bring in krishna . when does this market return to buying at the long end? krishna: i think bonds in the current environment represent much better value than before, obviously. if you are a believer in the reflation trade, then perhaps you are waiting, and i think of the moment, that is what is driving this more than anything else. i think people who are thinking and reflation terms basically have to look at the market in the following way. what is growth going to be this year, and what is likely to be

the growth outlook for next year? this year, we know everything is falling in place, and just from base effects, we are talking six, seven. you pick a large number. but the real and is what is growth going to look like in 2022. i think that growth is probably closer to 2% then 4%. if that is the case, how do you sustain that level of reflation, or sustain the level of dental inflation, and really of potential inflation, and really worry -- of potential inflation, and really worry about overheating? by late this year, it is going to start dissipating. if you believe that, you start buying bonds today. jonathan: i just want to frame that is it is actually -- frame that because it is actually quite a big called. we had ellen's and her of morgan

stanley -- ellen zentner of morgan stanley come on and talk about 2% growth. krishna: it is probably somewhere between 2% and 3% for 2022, is what my view is. the reason is savings rates are high, and given what we have gone through, and considering the current level of stimulus as income replacement that gets saved, it will provide a higher trend growth outlook for the next few years, but that outlook is not going to be a couple of percentage points. it is probably going to be maybe 0.5% or 0.75 percent, rather than 2% or 3% that people may be expecting. things haven't changed that dramatically, other than the fact that when we were losing income, we replaced people's income.

tom: when does the bond market click in for bonds? right now, the bloomberg total return index, the aggregate index is down about 2% from the august highs. a 2% loss in that blended on portfolio. we talk about bear markets and equity, but never bonds. what percent down is a bear market for you in bonds? krishna: bear markets, if you look at the history of that series, it is very rare to have a prolonged period of drawdown and that index. i think the better market environment to some extent is self-correcting because when rates rise and ends up being slowed down in growth in a very short period of time, and therefore bonds turn positive, i think to some extent that is probably going to happen this time also. the real question is, does it happen in late 2021, or does it

happen in 2022? in my mind, that is really the only question. we were headed to sub 2% rates, or even sub 1% 10 year rates normally, even without covid, so we got here in a hurry. nothing has fundamentally changed from a structural growth outlook. you can talk about reflation as much as you want, but once the stimulus has kind of passed through, there's really no significant driver on the upside. lisa: extrapolating that view into equities, does that mean the reflation trade inequities has gone too far with small caps and some of the more cyclical parts of the market? krishna: know, i think the reflation trade inequities, i would call it a reflation trade is much as a growth outlook improving trade, and that has more to go. i think while the two may be correlated, one may lag the

other. so my expectation would be bond markets probably find the end of the reflation trade before the equity market finds the end of the reflation, or the better growth trade, and that probably lasts more of 2021 then the bond reflation trades. jonathan: always great to catch up. thank for being with us. krishna my money -- krishna memani of lafayette college. we keep talking about this reflation trade. inflation is part of the trade rolling over a little bit. it has been a real yield story in a much more profound way. tom: there's three numbers in there, the nominal yields, the inflation dynamic, and the real yield is the only thing that matters because your property is seen friday afternoons on bloomberg television.

but there's eight a namic here of those three numbers -- but there is a dynamic here of those three numbers. jonathan: there were go. we are teasing that her friday. you know what was interesting for last friday? we had people from jp morgan talking about international small caps. tom: lisa, should we mention that is washington's birthday? george washington was the greatest man in the world. lisa: ok, we can put that in. i did just want to make one note. you keep calling me gloom queen, but what you are talking about is an increase in real yields and not inflation expectation, the reason why people are concerned about this inflationary trends. that is exactly the point. tom: she won't let up. jonathan: did we ever call you gloom queen? [laughter] lisa: i don't know, have you? jonathan: maybe we should start.

i just don't ever recall calling you that. gloom queen. tom: we've got to get a dose of this? jonathan: i think it is more than once at the moment. lisa: tom cottam -- tom, what are you drinking? jonathan: i want what tom is having come actually. coming up in the 8:00 hour, lisa thornbury of schroders. this is bloomberg. ritika: in new york with the -- karina: in new york with the first word news, i'm karina mitchell. a study shows that the pfizer/biontech vaccine appears to show the vast majority of recipients in israel from becoming infected, the first real-world indication that immunization can halt the spread of the virus. a draft says the virus is 89% effective. however, some scientists are disputing its accuracy. meanwhile, in the u.k. today, prime minister boris johnson will announce all schools in

england will reopen starting march 8. johnson will be in parliament outlining how the iris lockdown will be lifted over the next few months. more social contact will be allowed starting march 29. that will include outdoor gatherings of either six people or two households. china is urging the biden adminstration to scrap iteris and restore goodwill -- scrap tariffs and restore goodwill. they reiterated the need to remove what he called unreasonable tariffs. a new report says americans are underinsured when it comes to flooding. according to first feed foundation, americans face $18 billion in flood damage annually , but insurance premiums would cover less than 1/4 of that amount. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

i'm karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> spending on pandemic recovery now, spending generously is not

competing with a longer running investment program. in fact, it is a precondition for that longer run investment program. we need to get people back to work. jonathan: paul krugman, nobel laureate, on the debate of the moment. good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's your market this monday morning. it looks a little something on this, with equity futures coming down 0.5% as the bond market breaks down and yields had higher by four basis points, rounded up to 1.37 percent on the u.s. 10 year. the euro hanging in there. in the commodity market, crude higher, $59.75. copper through $3000, absolutely flying. just to pick up on the words of paul krugman, it shouldn't be competing with an infrastructure program. i think the fear among some economists is that is will. tom: a huge deal here is the

allocation, the makeup of the deal. of course, "the wall street journal" out today, showing the buildup we have seen in that wall of money out there. kevin cirilli is familiar with that come our chief washington correspondent. -- kc, i want to cut right to the chase. is the number really $1.5 trillion, one point $9 trillion, or do you presume it grows and grows until they get to the end of the legislation? kevin: you know who the most fascinating person to watching all of these talks over the next two weeks actually isn't a house member nor a senator. it is the senate parliamentarian, elizabeth mcdonough, because she is going to have to make a ruling sometime within the next 10 days, and she is hearing arguments from senators about whether or not they are going to be able to move through this

process if they allow for their to be an increase allow for -- if they allow for there to be an increase in minimum wage. not to be too wonky with you, but if they are held to a $15 minimum wage, they can't add to the budget over the 10 year period. senator joe manchin said he is not going to rule against the senate are limitary and. you have 8 -- senate parliamentarian. you have a situation where vice president kamala harris might have to cast another tiebreaker vote to override the senate parliamentarian. senator kyrsten sinema, a democrat from arizona, as well as jon tester, another centrist democrat, they are saying that they are very uneasy about the minimum wage going up to $15 an hour. it is why last week, i was reporting that president biden

is facing that pressure to back off on the $15 minimum wage. jonathan: let me bring up the words of paul krugman so you can weigh in on this. " the infrastructure spending shouldn't be competing -- or rather, the investment we are about to see shouldn't be competing with infrastructure." do you see it is a competition between the two? kevin: it is a competition in the sense of how democrats want to pay for it. republicans are in agreement that there needs to be infrastructure, but the massive divide is how both sides achieve that goal. lisa: can you elaborate, basically talking about tax hikes here? how much are we going to raise taxes? who is on what to side of the debate? kevin: senate budget committee chairman bernie sanders is saying more, more, more. republicans are saying not so fast. from an infrastructure

perspective, when many folks in washington were incredibly surprised in conservative circles that president biden and the administration would lay down a gauntlet on immigration and try to achieve that goal as well. a window for significant policy changes is rapidly closing after the $1.9 trillion stimulus comes to a conclusion. but there are so many different dynamics here. the only way that i think democrats can see their chances for infrastructure significantly improve is if there is some type of cybersecurity element and cyber infrastructure. tomorrow is the solarwinds hearing on the senate intelligence committee. i will be interviewing the chair of that committee, mark warner. lisa: is there a political will to raise taxes, or does this all have to be agreed upon on a deficit spending basis right now? kevin: we are going to find out from elizabeth mcdonough, and that is really the biggest unknown variable, so she is the political referee that is really

going to, if you are trying to figure out the timing of when this money gets into the economy, it really depends from a process standpoint if republicans and democrats in the senate are going to have to hold a raw workable vote to overturn her ruling. tom: did i just hear you plug "sound on," and you have senator warren on? you slipped that in nicely. [laughter] kevin: i just learned from the three of you every day. tom: what kind of middle is senator warner of virginia? kevin: this is someone who has deep experience in the telecommunications field, someone who knows a thing or two about cybersecurity. you can't talk about potential secretaries of state and not talk about someone like a mark warner. he's got a lot of history. at one point, was thought to be rumored to be a vp or presidential candidate in previous cycles. the top republican on that committee, marco rubio, they have a lot of common ground.

when i come on here and report about china and the common ground that republicans and democrats have, the bedrock of that is from the senate intel committee. jonathan: i'm told have got to promote that now. tom: here we go. jonathan: kevin cirilli, chief washington correspondent, host of "sound on" on bloomberg radio, 5:00 p.m. on bloomberg radio. what you said earlier, it sounded like senator warren. [laughter] kevin: i am not trying to step on anything. jonathan: i said committee hearings could be boring. lisa: that is stepping on something. [laughter] tom: this is the longest interview he has ever done with us. lisa: i thought that was fabulous. the question of taxing versus deficit spending is huge. tom: i have like eight more questions, but i know there's no time. jonathan: shortly, we will catch

up with mike wilson of morgan stanley. i am looking forward to this conversation. a man who has a price target of 20 800, and sticking with it. that is the more important part of this call, what happens -- of 2800, and sticking with it. that is the more important part of this call, what happens beneath the surface. tom: that is one of the best bet midler songs, "the churn beneath the surface." jonathan: i don't know. why did you bring up president's day a week after? tom: we have a week where we have three presidents. lisa: how are we supposed to pick up on that? jonathan: i don't know. to be clear, using president's day should be today? lisa: it should be every day. tom: it should be the 12th and the 22nd. jonathan: we should get two days?

tom: i'm sure there is a british equivalent. william and harry's birthdays or whatever. jonathan: we are off by 0.7%. bond yields breaking out. the greatest krach ever developed on this -- the greatest crutch when you switch to xfinity mobile, you're choosing to get connected to the most reliable network nationwide, now with 5g included. discover how to save up to $300 a year with shared data starting at $15 a month, or get the lowest price for one line of unlimited. come into your local xfinity store to make the most of your mobile experience. you can shop the latest phones, bring your own device, or trade in for extra savings. stop in or book an appointment to shop safely with peace of mind at your local xfinity store.

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on bloomberg tv and radio. they're down 0.7% on the s&p 500. the nasdaq off by a little more than 0.5%. switch up the board and get to that 10 year real yield, crushed off the bath a good -- off the back of the pandemic. slight inflection in the very last couple of weeks to -78 basis points on 10 year real yields, upsetting the valuation of big tech. upset something else potentially, tom. let's finish on foreign-exchange. look at things like the aussie, the commodity currencies, the norwegian krone. you had a 12% move on these

currency pairs in the favor of the aussie and the nokia son. kit juckes of socgen is raising this question. when do real yields start to bite and drive things the other way? tom: i am also going to note, renminbi has not broken up to new strength. i would note that the 10 year yield makes another leap up in the last two hours, 1.38%. jonathan: that is the story we have got to build on this affects market, not just foreign-exchange, and commodities as well. this is a double hit if you start to think about it. not only weigh on some of these trades, but also the commodity side of the trade as well. a huge move and copper, huge move in crude. if there is a weaker dollar call, the real yields start to challenge the consent this view. let's get you some movers. here's romaine.

romaine: we will start off with what is going on in the vaccine space. we had that israeli study of that pfizer/biontech covid-19 shot basically showing that the real world efficacy is actually a little bit better than what it was in the last. that is good news for pfizer. keep an eye on some of the other stocks out there because some of them are under pressure, basically the leaders of the pack here because a lot of people are betting on seeing those other names. also seeing a big upgrade across the airline space at deutsche bank, upgrading to buy at southwest and others because people are starting to get out there and travel. copper has been on an absolute tear. river last week, we got above -- remember last week, would got above four dollars.

copper now trading at a record high. those stocks, that is your reflation trade. a lot of information going on today in the deals space. tom: good, good. you got that there. great. romaine: this is a big deal. we have seen a lot of combinations of these regional banks. you had that big deal for huntington bancorp in september, and the pnc deal in november. some of these original banks are getting a little too large, with regulatory requirements that kick in. then there is a visual of these persistently low rates. this is an environment where you can actually be more nimble, and these companies have to combine if they want to compete.

cooper to also being bought in a deal with goodyear tire. interesting news that we got according to people familiar with the situation, activist investors have apparently been kicked in the tires on coal. we will see how that shakes out. tom: thank you so much. right now, a joy to have mike wilson with us, with midwest academics come out of michigan and northwestern, legendary out of morgan stanley. he joins us now for an update yet i love what you say about the alpha and the beta -- for an update. i love what you say about the alpha and the beta. it is about relative performance versus absolute performance. parse that. mike: thanks, tom.

that is what this year is going to be about. last year, we were obviously in the midst of the pandemic, the lockdown. the economy was falling apart. of course, stocks discounted the recovery, and it was really a beta trade, meaning everything went up together because everything got crushed at the same time. now it is about, where can i find the needles in the haystack? companies that are really going to outperform as we reopen. by the way, there's going to be some loses as that happens, too. this going to be a shift back to normal. there's going to be cost pressures. we want to take advantage of that. tom: what are the sectors in the

haystack? mike: it is the banks. we have been on the rate trade for a while. we have been on the reflation trade. let's take advantage of that. there are going to be companies that benefit from higher rates and higher commodity prices. materials, metals and mining. the banks, clearly some of the cyclical parts of technology that have benefited from the reopening of an economy. maybe the industrial sector as we get an infrastructure bill. those are areas from a sector standpoint that could do quite well. jonathan: let's build on the year end call, 3900. is this just down to the sector weightings of an index like the s&p 500? mike: it is really a large cap growth index, jon, as you know. those stocks have done terrifically well over the last decade. part of that story has been the fact that rates have come down. they are great businesses, but

they have been overvalued because rates have been repressed. that is changing now. their multiples are going to come down more perhaps than what the earnings can offset, so 30 and hundred, i still feel really good -- so 3900, i still feel really good about that target. the story is what is going on underneath the surface. you mentioned it earlier, some of the metals and mining stocks, some of the banks doing well. jonathan: what i've really enjoyed about catching up with you guys at morgan stanley is putting the pieces together. ellen zentner talking up 5% gdp growth next year. i imagine a high-yield call is in there as well. can you join the dots between the different calls coming from the bank at the moment? mike: the macro team has really been in sync over the last 12 months. ellen is calling the economy, matt is calling rates. the sector dispersion and rotation is all part of the same

narrative, and it goes back to almost a year ago now. it seems like it was yesterday, but a year ago, we are talking about this regime shift as we move from a monetary policy dominant regime to a fiscal policy dominant regime, and it is clear now that is what is happening. it means a higher velocity economy. it means higher nominal gdp. it means inflation. those are going to change what works going forward. lisa: the churn can be nice. it can be a hot tub or the ocean where you get smashed against the shore. there's a question about how much leverage there is. beneath the surface, it is going to lead to pretty violent moves. what has been pushed out of the system or how much has been built up in preparation for a relatively violent churn over the next few months? mike: one of the things we are not that comfortable with at the moment, to be honest, it has been really a one-way risk market. there hasn't been a lot of to a whisk -- a lot of two-way risk.

we are right back to those high leverage areas. when i say high leverage, i mean across the institutional world and the retail world. we have rarely seen leverage this high, and that can bite both ways. so the wildcard to me, let's say we go into the reopening phase, which looks like it should be sooner rather than later. we could have margin pressure. we could have rates go up more quickly than what we are anticipating in valuation. so i think the leverage will create more two-way risk, will create some more volatility in the marketplace, and some opportunities in the areas that we do like. lisa: how do you use that? how are you preparing to jump on that with respect to specific market calls? mike: we are advising clients to take their leverage down. even in the things that we like

now, they are a bit ahead of themselves, and we wouldn't be surprised if we had another surprise over the next 30 to 45 days and get another correction. one risk right now, and let's take advantage of the drawdown like we got in january or some of the drawdowns we got last year. jonathan: mike, fantastic to catch up. mike wilson, morgan stanley cio and chief equity strategist. on this market, still very comfortable come with a year-end target -- very comfortable, with a year target of 2900. tom:tom: there's a lot of different opinions. it. . is a big brown. i see few people -- it is a big round. -- it is a big run. i see few people anticipating a run-up in earnings. . jonathan:jonathan: if you look at the s&p 500, 27%, 28% of it is price targets. real yields moving the other

way. tom: abramowicz grind to get out. what is the hot tub? [laughter] lisa: hold on a second. the idea is that markets are neat. they don't move in a linear function historically, and they have been really neat. when you talk about churn -- jonathan: we appreciate that. we just wonder how you got to a hot tub. tom: that's not appropriate for radio. tv, we can say that. but radio -- jonathan: i had no idea where it was going. [laughter] lisa: never mind. jonathan: are you ok this morning? are you all right? both of you. i have no idea what is going on. tom: let's run this through. lisa, you are living this right now. in new york city, for radio and tv, you need an ice rink. we have an ice rink in central park. there is this uproar over the ice rink's. lisa: what happened is they were going to close them early.

there's nothing you can do in the city during a pandemic. when you've got kids, you try to get them out of the house. who is that? tom: that is afterthought. the gentleman dropping the puck is one of our great employees at bloomberg. jonathan: i've been there with you, tom come on a saturday morning. you refused to put on the skates. tom: the coffee was seven dollars a cup. jonathan: is that how much it was? lisa is fired up about an ice rink. it is coming up in different ways this morning. i'm jonathan ferro. can we stop there, please? [laughter] coming up, the rockefeller foundation managing director of pandemic response preparedness and prevention. coming up, a serious conversation around the corner. this is bloomberg. karina: with the first word news, i'm karina mitchell. it is the first real-world indication that vaccination will curb the spread of the coronavirus.

a study shows the pfizer and biontech vaccine appeared to stop the vast majority of recipients in israel from becoming infected. the vaccine had 89% efficacy in preventing laboratory confirmed infections. in other news, the u.s. and iran are sparring over how to revive that nuclear deal. over the weekend, tehran renewed its demand that the biden adminstration rejoin the accord and lift sanctions before any talks can resume. the u.s. response is that iran is isolated diplomatically and the ball is in their court. airlines in the u.s., japan and south korea have grounded boeing 777's following that explosive failure over the weekend. united airlines flight made an emergency stop in denver after one of its engines suffered a fan oblate failure. boeing and united shares are lower premarket. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more

than 120 countries. i'm karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> it is stunning when you look at the numbers, almost unbelievable, but it is true.

this is a devastating pandemic, and it is historic. people will be talking about this decades and decades from now. jonathan: the kind of milestones you do not want to hear from the united states of america. that was dr. anthony fauci speaking to nbc over the weekend. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's your market. 12 months ago, the equity market was just about topping, and we are back to those levels now. up four basis points on the 10 year, and the equity market pulling back from highs. off by 0.9%. tom: off the morning action, i would say yields higher to get out to a 1.39% is a big deal. of course, 1.40% a bigger deal, but we are not there yet. the vix is higher over the last two hours of our simulcast on radio and television. this is a joy because it is a

view from 60,000 feet. jonathan quick is definitive at the rockefeller foundation as their managing director of bend mike response. the book is "-- of pandemic response. the book is "the end of epidemics," and it was prescient. how do pandemics end? jonathan q: pandemics like this and when enough people are immune, when the virus has run out of fuel. this coronavirus which we will get 70% immune either from infection or vaccination. tom: in your book, your last chapter, you say rouse the leaders. are we doing ok? dr. quick: well, they are roused. i think what we have seen in the

last couple of months, over the last month especially, we are really seeing a real unity of messaging from the top in the u.s., and it continues worldwide. the focus on vaccination, the focus on continued practice of safe living precautions, i think those are vital, and i think we are moving ahead on those. lisa: you are a couple of days away from full immunity after getting your second shot. congratulations. you and others are wondering, ok, what do we do now? the initial information out of israel is that there is protection against infecting anybody else for those who have gotten vaccinated. is this an all clear sign? do you think you will change your behavior based on those studies? dr. quick: i am going to keep my behavior just as it is, which is

continue to be cautious with masking and distancing and all until the cdc has looked at all the evidence and context in the u.s. and given the all clear. lisa: so in other words, you don't think necessarily the information we have gleaned from that study is enough to say go out and have a pandemic party as soon as you are done with immunization? dr. quick: right. the thing is, you don't get a do over. so i think when we start making changes to relax restrictions and all, we need to be really sure, particularly with the specter of these variants on the horizon. tom: are the vaccines that we have helping us with future covid viruses? not this covid virus, but others to come through the years?

dr. quick: yeah. what we have now, i think folks need to understand that the reason why we have been able to break all records on vaccine development is that we have new technologies for the development of the virus and a vaccine and production. so the companies are already adapting the vaccine to reflect the impact that some of -- the impact of some of these different mutations. that's one. the second is this vaccine attacks a certain part of the virus, but there is already research going on that will let us attack multiple parts of the virus, which means when there are new strains, when there are mutations, we are likely to be in a much better position to have a vaccine that really covers a broader spectrum of

changes in the virus. jonathan f: let's build on that a little bit more. tom has had both doses of his particular vaccine, and in a number of weeks, he will be the same situation you are in right now. do we know when we have to do it again? is it nine months, 12 months? when do you have to go back for more? dr. quick: we won't know that until we have gone through those months and seen the actual protection in practice. we know from the two other corunna viruses that have gone global, sars -- other corona viruses that have gone global, sars and the one in 2012, those lasted 24 to 36 months, so we will undoubtedly need a boost to have some kind.

jonathan f: doctor, thanks for weighing in on some of the things we just don't know. tom, to your good question, we still do not know, and there are important things as well. tom: that's the way it was in the 1950's and 1960's. this is virus 101. the one thing i go back to with all of the analysis and the keeping of statistics is every pro we talk to, from quick down to the granular like deborah fuller out at you center city of washington -- out at university of washington, they are all stunned by how we got the successful vaccines. jonathan f: yields are higher. the curve is steeper on tens come on 30's. copper is flying, the aussie is stronger. things are just starting to come together again this morning. lisa: i do wonder, to mike wilson's point, the idea of leverage building, a strong,

crowded consensus trades, how much these can overshoot before they correct. jonathan f: the ultimate consensus trade i think that has got a real challenge right now, we touched on it about 30 minutes ago, is the u.s. dollar trade. very bullish into the new year. now we are starting to see real yields breakout. tom: the dollar call is the consensus trade. the call i don't think it's consensus is nobody has visibility on earnings, what we see q2 or q3. there's just a thunderous silence. jonathan: better and better is what people hope for, but i tie-in that u.s. dollar strength not just to fx. commodities, one. e.m., two. it is interesting this is happening on the same morning. tom: real yields up three basis points. no question about it. jonathan: thank you, tom.

friday's, when a clock p.m. eastern -- fridays, 1:00 p.m. eastern. lisa: are you going to change it to negative real yield? jonathan: we could. tom: for radio, "the real yield" is flying over the garbage state -- over the garden state parkway. jonathan: and we are done. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> the economy is looking promising. the recovery is still at the early stages. it is still quite fragile. >> things haven't changed that dramatically, other than we replaced people's income. >> pent-up demand continues to build. >> we have seen people take the money they get from the government and their income and spend it like mad. >> inflation is an eventuality, and that is the only thing that will probably not be market off course -- probably knock the market off course. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz.