♪ >> it's not surprising, given the issuance and the recovery coming, that bond yields are going to be higher. we are going to see the curve steeper. >> we could see the u.s. economy grow faster than the chinese economy in 2021. >> as you see a shift back towards services spending and normalization and activity, a lot of those jobs could come back quickly. >> it is a blowout year for the economy. >> the fed may be underestimating the degree to which and the speed at which we will get back to normal. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz.

tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." thank you so much for being with us on our simulcast, on radio, on television, and you know what? it is a churn to the market. i know you tune in for the conversation, but right now we are tuning in for the 30 year bond yield. it's got a life of its own. jonathan: up success base -- up six basis points, and your curve steeper. twos-tens out, to 30's at the steepest we have seen -- twos- 30's the steepest we have seen going back to 2018. lisa:lisa: we are not seeing stress. this is leading to a new paradigm where people are less worried about higher yields when it comes in tandem with growth, as jay powell was confirming yesterday in front of the senate. you're seeing real yields creep

higher. typically that is looked at as potential for people to move way from risk assets into those havens. it is not happening. that is what i am looking at. tom: yield higher, price down. we've got a wonderful equity guest to reaffirm the equity market here. jon, what is your observation of the correlations? jonathan: financials up, rates up, banks rally. crude, copper rallying. energy absolutely flying in yesterday's session. it is all very intuitive. it is all very orderly. tom: that's right where i wanted to go. the catharsis isn't there. i am going to use ben laidler here, but many others researching on this. is it a catch-up of energy, of the banks, or is it a rotation? i don't really see a rotation. jonathan: is it more durable, and will the federal reserve ultimately allow this to continue?

that is the question we have to ask on the backside of the trade. on the energy side, i think you've got to -- the bank side of the trade. on the energy side, i think you've got to ask what happens to the u.s. dollar. tom: lisa abramowicz, color the caution right now because i don't see the catharsis yet on the pullback. lisa: the idea here is that the market and the economy is moving very quickly, and that we are not getting it right. it is very hard to pinpoint the exact growth levels. we have seen a lot of the executions swinging around violently, whether it is corporate earnings or economic growth projections. what are we not seeing? is it growth that is too fast or too slow? that is the big angst out there. tom: i am going to go optimistic and say what we are not seeing is q2, q3, q4 on earnings. robert doll is with nuveen, the chief equity strategist.

maybe more than anyone on wall street, he has said you need to participate to win. bob doll joins us. the opacity of earnings and revenue for you forward, maybe i've never seen before. how do you frame q2 and q3 earnings? robert: awesome. we are going to have a great year for the economy and earnings. the opening up of the economy, the spending of the unbelievable amount of excess savings of consumers, that will unfold during the course of this year and give us, according to our work, the best economy in 36 years here in the united states. jonathan: credit suisse shares that view. many others do as well. what do you want to own? bob: i think the shift is happening. not that you want to sell all of your large-cap growth stocks, but small is ahead of

big by 1000 basis points already this year. i think many international markets will beat the u.s.. this is an environment that is very different from the last decade, when economic growth was pretty mediocre. so the most defensive economy and stock market in the world, the u.s., when the race on most every time -- the u.s., won the race almost every time. jonathan: at the start of november, we started to get the results of these clinical trials of vaccines. what we are waiting for now is the news around j&j. the fda releasing briefing documents on j&j's covid vaccine ahead of the february 26 advisory panel. just waiting for some more headlines, some details coming out from their as we look at the path forward, and maybe have an additional vaccine in the mix to get reopened. tom: an additional vaccine in the mix, and you add them up,

and the mystery from the experts we have talked to is they are learning as they go. we've got to have respect for that. jonathan: the way we will engage in this economy will change because we are reopening and engaging with each other in a we couldn't nine months ago. does that inform your decision on the companies you want to own and the companies you don't want to own? bob: absolutely. you've got to be where the puck is going, and that is an opening economy. i think the earnings call is the easy one. the stock market call is the harder one because we have a tug-of-war that will develop. better earnings is an upward move for stocks. you don't get that without modestly higher interest rates and inflation, which eventually puts a limit and could put some pressure on p/e ratios. i don't see the pe in the u.s. stock market ending the year at 23 times where it is today. i think it will be lower. i think earnings will win the race, but stocks won't keep up with earnings.

lisa: this is the idea that for a decade, we saw the market drastically outperform the economy. are we shifting into a new paradigm where the economy will drastically outperform the stock market, and you see really laggard returns even though you do have a true growth picture that is accelerating? bob: absolutely. i still think this can be a good year for the stock market, but not great like the economy and earnings. what is great for the economy is not always great for the stock market. over time, there is a correlation, but you want mediocre growth to last a long time. if we get some quarters of 6%, 7%, 8% real gdp, the question before i came on about the fed will come back to the four very quickly, and the market will start forcing the fed's hand. lisa: how do you hedge in this environment? bob: i don't think you do yet. i still think you want to be out there with, as i said, the value

of the smaller cap and some international stocks. on weakness, i think you need to be able to buy those stocks. i like the banks better than energy, but both are fine. but then where are you going to take the money from? it is when you get those big up days in the stocks that are still pretty excessive. tom: let's go back to our youth. dow theory is really interesting. sometimes we agreed, sometimes we disagreed. how do you do dow theory with a 5% plus real gdp? within the tragedy of the pandemic, it is morning in america. the oomph is unreal. how do you do dow theory? bob: it is difficult. that works when conditions are more normal, but these are not normal times. the pandemic obviously was not normal on the downside, and this recovery is not normal on the upside. we do not have a playbook for this environment, i learned painfully last year. [laughter] jonathan: looking at the data,

you mentioned something important. i like the banks over energy. why, bob? bob: steeping of the yield curve. . the stocks are cheaper. loan growth will pick up. i think there's been over reserving in the banks on the back of the pandemic. so i think there are lots of ways the banks can win. not that energy can't win as well, but there are two men he external forces that i can't predict. i would rather own a bank -- there are too many external forces that i can predict. i would rather own a bank. jonathan: bob doll, good to see you, sir. that's what a lot of people have to think about at the moment. he look at the cyclicals. what do i want to own, energy? financials? tom: this is a really interesting question.

do you want to be in active or passive? that is going to be a raging debate. jonathan: i think for other people, not me, at the index level, at the s&p 500 on the nasdaq, if you are passive in those indices at the moment, there's a real risk you miss out on a massive rotation. lisa: that is why there was a report outcome a part of the reason why this idea of active management, that hedge funds are expect in their biggest year of inflows this year in more than five years because people are looking for that active management. bob was talking about how there is no model. is there a historical precedent? what is the reference point to look at? if you don't have a model, how do we view some of these historically high valuations when they are in this new time when no model is necessarily

bearing out? that to me is something i wonder about. tom: i noticed steve stanley earlier today, when he talked about world war ii and coming up to the dynamics of inflation in 1952 and 1953. there is some really interesting history there in the late 1940's and early 1950's boom, and the struggle of the nation to come out of world war ii. that is the only thing i can come up with. jonathan: the fda releasing their briefing documents on j&j's covid vaccine, this report being made available at of the advisory panel on friday. still waiting on some details on that, so we will keep you up-to-date. j&j looks to rollout that one does regime, which could be the game changer for many people, particularly in new york. you want the single-dose. lisa: otherwise, how long do you have to wait, tom? six weeks? tom: six weeks, but if you wait too long, it doesn't have the

efficacy of the window. jonathan: they are posting their findings ahead of the advisory meeting on friday. they say the vaccine is safe and effective, according to the fda. they find the j&j covid-19 vaccine safe and effective. more to come on this from new york city -- more to come on this. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ karina: with the first word news, and karina mitchell. the house will vote friday on president biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus plan. the president expects the package to pass by a narrow margin. the big question is the fate of the $15 an hour and a mom wage -- $15 an hour minimum wage. two democratic senators oppose it. mitt romney says if donald trump decides to go after the republican nomination in 2024, he will win it. he is the only republican senator who voted to convict

donald trump and both of his impeachment trials. he says donald trump will continue to play a role in the party. hong kong has introduced its first duty increase on trades, and shares fell on must 9%. it was their biggest decline since 2015. mainland base funds sold a record $2.6 billion worth of hong kong stock. golfing legend tiger woods is described as awake and recovering after a single car accident outside los angeles. one doctor said he suffered significant orthopedic injuries when his suv rolled into steep terrain, and had to be extricated from the vehicle. police say there are indications he was driving at a relatively higher speed than normal. the richest property tycoon in hong kong plans to list a blank check company in the u.s. they are working with advisors on the potential spac public offering. the value may seek around $400

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>> we expect readings on inflation to move up.

that will be a temporary effect and won't really signal anything. you can see spending pick up substantially in the second half of the year, and that would be a good thing, but it could also put upward pressure on prices. it doesn't seem likely that would result in very large increases or that they would be persistent. jonathan: chairman of the federal reserve jay powell staying on message on day one of congressional testimony. day two a little later on. good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action. on the 30 year bond in america, we stare down the barrel and break 2.25%, up a full seven basis points now. up four on ten's to 1.39%. the fda staff finds the j&j covid-19 vaccine safe and effective. this is a one dose regime, and it just fuels the outlook, a better outlook in america and beyond. tom: we welcome all of you worldwide and across this nation

on radio and television. jon gives you the data. it is about the 10 year yield moving just in the last number of moments, much more than that velocity higher. jonathan: that spread is wider by six basis points on the day. tom: right now, to the politics of the moment, it is very important to speak to a politician who actually had a payroll to meet and work at a company. brian steil, the republican from wisconsin, paul ryan's old district. what does congress need from washington now -- what does business need from washington now? rep. steil: number one, we need schools to reopen. our labor participation rate is about the lowest -- participation rate is about the lowest since the carter

administration. the one thing we can do to free up our labor market is to get children back in school and allow parents with young children to return to the work worse. tom: the vaccination -- the workforce. tom: the vaccination program is clearly succeeding. where do you perceive your district at the end of the summer? rep. steil: hopefully we keep making progress. more and more folks 65 and older are getting their vaccines. my mom and dad got there first vaccine in line. i think this is a positive sign. we are also seeing the nobles of total covid positivity come down. if we -- seeing the totals of covid positivity come down. i think that is the number one thing we can do for our, across the country. lisa: as a parent of two boys who are school-age, it has definitely been a devastating year to have them out of school. in order to get the economy back up and running across the board, people agree there's going to be some kind of assistance. how do you feel about this 1.9

trillion dollar plan, given your history with the manufacturing industry and your expectation and hope of further edification of these areas later in the year potentially? rep. steil: i am very concerned there's a mismatch with fiscal policy here in washington, d.c. against the needs and our country. we'd to make sure we are driving forward with the vaccine, but we don't need to over stimulate the economy with excessive spending that is not relative to the actual coronavirus. out of the billions of dollars being put towards education, only 5% of the funds from the bill will be spent in 22 anyone. we need to reopen schools today. what we are seeing is a $1.9 trillion -- in 2021. we need to reopen schools today. what we are seeing is a $1.9 trillion democrat wish list. tom: do you support the democrats in the allocation to small-business individuals, income replacement, income substitution, and rent substitution right now? rep. steil: rather than a

targeted approach, we're seeing broad brush strokes. maybe a couple together would be making over $200,000. that is far in excess of what is actually needed. we need to have this targeted to those who have been negatively impacted. lisa: a lot of people are saying borrowing costs are so low, still historically low for the united states, why not borrow now, get our economy running hot, and generate the economic growth that can pay down the step more easily and not potentially risk -- pay down this debt or easily and not potentially risk people staying out of work for longer? rep. steil: these are the questions we will have for chairman powell today. the question is, will we overheat the economy? congress has allocated over $4 trillion related to coronavirus. of that, $3 trillion has been spent. $1 trillion has yet to be spent. adding another $1.9 trillion on that starts to leverage the future of our children and grandchildren.

jonathan: what do you think constrains further spending? is it the bond markets, rates, inflation? what should ultimately constrain spending in washington? rep. steil: i think you need to have a need-based approach. we are looking at funds to reopen our schools. i'm supportive of getting funds to reopen schools today, but we are looking at only 5% of those funds for education being spent this year. that is a broad brush stroke approach rather than targeting the need of today, making sure we are rolling out the vaccine and reopening our economy safely. jonathan: so is it safe to say it would be political and not financial, the restraints around what we should and should not do? rep. steil: what we have seen before, when he saw congress pass five coronavirus release bills in a bipartisan fashion, it was done based on the needs of the country. this by all indication will be a partyline vote in washington dc, not focused on the needs of the country. it is focused on political

priorities on the democrats that they are trying to advance under the guise of coronavirus relief. jonathan: do you feel powerless to stop it? rep. steil: we are having conversations, trying to win the hearts and minds of individuals to call they were presented us. we need to make sure everyone understands what is in this bill so that they can call their representatives and see if we can put a stop to this. jonathan: the problem you've got, forgive me, is that the electorate like it, don't they? look at the polling. rep. steil: it is one thing to like free money. it is not hard to understand that people like receiving a check from the federal government. but at some time, we have to have an adult conversation that that check eventually comes back due. i am very concerned about the debt situation in america, and if we enter an inflationary period, payments on that debt will begin to squeeze important domestic spending. jonathan: a conversation we need to continue. thank you for your time. tom, an important conversation

down in d.c. tom: as he points out, he sounded like a democrat for a moment. jonathan: not at the end. [laughter] let's be clear about that. tom: not at the end, but he is looking to move money into 2021, which i believe is what speaker pelosi wants. lisa: i just want to point out that inflation is a serious debate within even the economics profession. that is the bet that is really underpinning this argument. he's basically saying if inflation does pick up, rates go up, and that it will be tough to pay back. we don't know. jonathan: let's be clear, right now there are no financial constraints to delivering this package. the market will absorb it. i thing it is always political. we saw that with the previous administration. their ability to try to shake this package is incredibly limited, and i think we are having the same debate between relief and stimulus. you hear the cumbersome and there, and he's pretty clear this goes beyond relief -- you

hear the congressman there, and he's pretty clear this goes beyond relief. is that where you were long, on the 30 year? lisa: triple leveraged cash. tom: i am down 14%. jonathan: wonderful. tom: thank (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design

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jonathan: this morning is getting very interesting in the bond market. from new york city, for audience worldwide, live on tv and radio. in the stock market we pulled back by about 2%. bounce back .3% on the nasdaq. on the nasdaq for big tech. yields up, the curve steeper. on the two year we go nowhere. on the 10 year, five basis points. on 30's, up almost eight basis points. adding fuel to that fire. the headline just moments ago from johnson & johnson with the fda saying the one dose vaccine was both safe and effective. let's finish on this chart. this has been the story.

the outlook for the economy better. rates up, curve steeper. the s&p 500 bank index year to date up 18.5%. what a ride it has been. jonathan: you are getting in -- tom: getting into double digit price declines. on johnson & johnson, sam fazeli joins us. the heart of the matter is the search for stability. what we need globally is a simplicity of vaccine delivery. does johnson & johnson accomplish that? sam: i do not think you can get simpler than the j&j vaccine. it is one dose. absolutely. lisa: when could we see it getting rolled out in the united states? sam: i've been hearing in the

next month or two. they have some manufacturing issues, but certainly picking up rapidly in the second half. the u.s. has enough moderna and pfizer vaccines to cover the entire population. at least ordered. this is a vaccine that could really make a difference to the rest of the world. tom: let me ask you the question i've asked all of my esteemed guest in virology. do you look at the better statistics as an extrapolation forward into the spring of this year? can you extrapolate to an optimistic outcome? sam: as you know i would love to because it is also my life. i am always wary of the variance that are circling. i would love to think they are not going to make a difference. if you look at some countries where they have the variant that was first identified in the u.k., they have managed to get

it under control. if we are careful, we can keep it under control. if we are not in we go to big gatherings, i think there is a risk we might have another wave. tom: sam fazeli, we are seeing it with the enthusiasm in the bond market. the 30 year bond, eight basis points. neil shearing with capital economics. the sustainability of what we see in real gdp, how far out do we sustain this above average economic growth into the pandemic? is it out to q3 or can you take it into next year? neil: given the size of the stimulus coming in the u.s., we can certainly take it into next year. if we had had this conversation -- we did have this conversation six months ago. it was how much lost output will there be permanently? now the conversation is how

quickly we get back to pre-virus levels of output and the pre-virus trend. the answer is we probably will. jonathan: 30's update basis points. the chairman said it is a statement of confidence. you share that view? neil: i think it is a statement of confidence. you alluded to this at the start of the segment. the steepening of the curve, we see nothing of the short end. the fed is not going to move on the back of the fiscal stimulus plans taking shape. i think that reflects economic recovery, but also there might be inflationary staying in the tail and the fed may have to move further ahead. now the big question, is this going to be inflationary, as it price inflationary. important to see the effects on the u.s. trade balance

deteriorating and the deficit widening. at this stage we can only speculate. jonathan: what is your base case on how this asset purchase program evolves in the coming months and quarters? neil: our base case is they hold the line and i think they should hold the line. they should hold the course and it continues. they have been very slow to wind down -- we had the taper tantrum in 2013, a bit of an omen in that respect. i think they will learn lessons from that. i think the fed will maintain a balance sheet and it holds the course. they really want to see not just the whites of inflation eyes but any pickup in inflation is not temporary but sustained. the fit is particular -- the fed is particular and becoming comfortable with the idea of

inflation at 3%, we can live with that if it is the price to pay for other policy goals. lisa: what could we see that could cause inflation beyond 3%? you see any signs in the economy of something that could fuel that? neil: there are warning signs if you look. look at global supply chains at the moment. a global shortage of semiconductors. we have seen price pressure and other demand for manufactured goods. we are not seeing any inflationary pressure, chairman powell alluded to this yesterday. in the service sector at the nontraded service sector, that is because it is shut and locked down. there is no pressure. there are some warning signs in what is happening on the good side. -- on the goods side. whether or not the phillips curve, if not dead but still flat.

my money would be we get a much higher rate of consumer price inflation, above 2% or 3% over the next five to seven years. we get a much higher rate of asset price inflation. we have seen equities come and we get asset markets. that is where we see some of the inflationary consequences. jonathan: this is why act -- lisa: this is why a comeback to the question of good inflation versus bad inflation. if you have the price of going to the grocery store, filling up your car going up, but you do not see wages, certainly not in the service sector, if you do not see the wages going up, if you do not see inflation there, at what point do we lead to an imbalanced situation that seems precarious and does not fuel the growth necessary to make that inflation good? neil: indeed. you can argue that in some sense we are already there.

there is lot of research being conducted on how qe asset purchase programs have fueled wealth inequality by bidding up asset prices and i think we will can see a continuation of that. some consumer price inflation -- wage inflation is key -- i would worry less about that channel and more to asset price inequality. if you get asset prices up it is not just in the housing, making housing unaffordable for lower paid workers and younger people come it is also intergenerational wealth inequality. having an intergenerational inequality effect. much more to the asset price channel. tom: the salvation of this cheap goods, there is an equity view that pacific rim will do well, the trade will rebound, maybe not back to the nirvana of

february, but there will be a rebound. is capital economics optimistic on asia getting back to what it was a year ago? neil: if you look at asia, some parts of asia are back to where it was a year ago. china and taiwan, it is partly the semiconductor move we just talked about. asia is a region that has benefited -- if anyone has benefited it has been asia. we can no longer go to restaurants, we cannot go to bars and theaters or go to sporting arenas. spending money on macbooks and iphones and cars and manufacturing goods. where they produced? asia. it is asia that has benefited and we see that. the answer to your question is yes, asia will continue to lead the way. he is leading the way in many cases. it is back to where it was

pre-pandemic. the question is that sustained once developed markets start to open up and we get back towards services and restaurants opening up? at that point is when outperformance from asia starts to dissipate. jonathan: thank you. neil shearing looking happier than when we last spoke to him. capital economics group chief economist. treasuries lower, yields higher. update basis points on the 30 year. on tends, up five or six basis points to around 1.40. it is 12 months since the monday we all woke up after italy had shut down and this market started to gap aggressively lower. it was the beginning of the selloff. it was the beginning of a huge move lower in a bond yields. we go the other way 12 months later. tom: i will center tendency at

1.65, 1.70, that is a target to pre-pandemic. jonathan: anyone following bloomberg tv two hours ago will remember tom shouting bob michele. guess who is coming up on the open? bob michele on this bond market selloff, with -- which i have to say is gaining steam and adding fuel to the fire. lisa: i keep thinking robert tipp will get in there. he said at 1.5% i will start taking a look at 10 year. jonathan: we have to ping the guys at pgim a message and see if they are the long end. they have been dead on for a long time. i wonder if the buy start to come in at anytime soon. tom: bob michele is on at 9:00.

i am going away for four weeks. jonathan: you're going away for a month. tom: if i do not get bob michele. jonathan: you will not get him. i just want to make sure he follows through. are you actually going away for four weeks? tom: i'm thinking about it. jonathan: lisa looks happy for the first time in three hours. on the 10 year, we push 1.40. karina: with the first word news, i'm karina mitchell. today president biden will order a government review of u.s. supply chains. the goal is to end the reliance on china and other adversaries for crucial goods. the process will offer no immediate solution for semiconductors. joe biden and justin trudeau set aside differences over trade and other issues in their first meeting. the two conducted a virtual summit for two hours. they said their nations would

adopt a unified approach towards the pandemic, climate change, and china. more fallout from the engine failure on a united airlines boeing 777. the faa has ordered inspections of pratt and whitney engines used on 777's. a fan blade snapped and tore off another blade and the front stretcher from the engine bitcoin went back over 51,000 today. the rebound follows a tough week for the world's largest cryptocurrency. 45,000 yesterday, revising down. bitcoin got some support from etf superstar kathy would who said she is positive on it. kathy wood's exchange traded funds posted their larges outflows on record after a selloff swamp some of the managers biggest bets. investors pulled 400 55 million in one day from art investment management flagship product. two other ark funds had outflows

totaling $321 million. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> either -- at the white house

with the national security council next to the president and making sure we bring the resources of every single department, more than the u.s. it -- more than the usda. tom: we have all learned from the pandemic and we will never be the same after the pandemic is over. jose andris with world central kitchen. david rubenstein peer-to-peer conversations. thank you so much for doing this interview. lisa and i have seen the hunger on the streets of new york. how are we different in this pandemic? how are we different out -- after the pandemic? david: his view is that it is amazing in a country as wealthy as ours we do not distribute food very well. who would've thought you would have gigantic food lines in dallas or los angeles with people who are middle-class not

having enough food. he is worried about it and what he would like to do is have a white house advisory on food near the president who can focus on food distribution and make sure people have appropriate types of food. he is a great chef, a world-class chef, but he is spending most of his time on humanitarian efforts, including feeding people around the world when there are tragedies in their countries. tom: we have obesity in america because food is so cheap. if i go to aisle five of my whole foods, there is 14 choices of rice, 13 choices of mustard. how do we translate that to an impoverished world? david: that is the problem. whole foods is terrific for people who can afford it, but many people cannot afford something like that. it is a sad situation where when you have a crisis like the pandemic, you have to feed people who normally have food and access to food. we do not have a good distribution system for a

pandemic like this. lisa: it goes beyond the pandemic. i'm thinking about food deserts. people cannot even buy easily some of the fresh foods you're talking about. it is not just anything to eat, it is something that will be healthy. what is jose andres proposing about what to do with those food deserts we are seeing? david: there is no one answer. one of the things he points out is there has not been a food conference at the white house for 50 years and he thinks it would be a good idea. he thinks the department of agriculture should not be the only people worried about food, and he wants to make sure people eat healthy food, even if you have people who are not wealthy and they get enough food, that is not the same as eating healthy food. at the moment companies are more focused on healthy food than people at the bottom of the economic structure. lisa: there is a question about the inflation we have seen in food prices. how does this affect the

discussion? david: there is no doubt it makes it more difficult for people at the bottom to eat adequately. everyone wants to live a healthy and happy life, and one of the best ways of doing that is eating healthy. he is focused on that. he could make a lot of money as a restaurant tour. he has 50 restaurants. he has closed many because of the pandemic, but he is focused -- he tries to feed these people without government assistance. tom: mr. solomon at goldman sachs is speaking at the credit suisse conference. he touches on something that is immediate. with your years of perspective, with hundreds of companies that carlyle group has advised, where are you on the shift to work from home? hsbc says they should trim their office where footage. mr. solomon says remote work is not a new normal, just an aberration.

your thoughts? david: i do not think it is likely we will go back the next five years or 10 years to the work pattern we had before. it is amazing in one year we have learned we can work from home and work remotely. i think most employers would be happy to have their employees work remotely. i think there is a value to going to the office and senior colleagues, particulate for younger people. i think we change the way we work dramatically and forever as a result of the pandemic. lisa: congratulations on getting your first shot this week for the vaccination. tom keene has had both of his and it is an exciting time seeing the light, potentially, of a normal world emerging. when do you hope to get back to the office to see your employees with more normalcy? david: it is unlikely employees at financial service firms and office firms of the kind i work at will go back in any measurable way until the fall, and it may not be until next year. nobody knows for certain.

i do not think anybody thinks they will go back to five days a week like they did before or travel is much as they did before. you can do so much with this technology. the days of my traveling around the world are probably over. lisa: thank you so much. stay healthy and we appreciate your guidance. carlyle group co-founder and co-chair. peer-to-peer conversations always enlightening at 9:00 tonight in new york. a huge issue facing everybody, especially after we saw the lines you're talking about. now we shift our focus to the markets. tom: the markets are moving. read on the screen. equities pullback. the full faith and credit move, 10-year, 30 year, i will go 10-year with a round number, 1.40. lisa: the long end continuing to selloff. yield substantially higher, leading to the highest yield curves as a key measure going

forward and potential optimism spreading, the most since 2014. i wonder how much is this people expecting a better economy and how much is this people thinking the fed will not step in and will allow the yield curve to continue to steepen without taking action? tom: it is a recent on vaccination. we have had a number of guests and analysts make it clear there is a direct correlation between the good news j&j had, that is further than what we already saw this morning. very few people handle price decline. 10 year price, and i am down 3% or 4% through the month of february. lisa: here is what i am struck by. there is a dissidents between markets that are ahead of the potential for overheating, and economists not in on that yet. they still see that being in this slow growth paradigm.

i do wonder who is right. where does that cap get bridged david:? two viewed -- tom: two views on the markets and economics as well. i would go to improving pandemic data. i love what bob doll said earlier. he will have a given economy and it will deliver a given earnings and revenue. 27 vix down to 24. lisa: the reaction function equities is going back to what we saw. stocks rollover the nasdaq seeing a bigger decline in the futures market as we see the 30 year yield shoot higher. the pace at which yields are rising leading to lower equity valuations still seems to be holding this wednesday morning. tom: chairman powell talking. vice-chairman richard clarida will speak early this afternoon. we will get perspective. on bloomberg markets, former

federal reserve vice chairman of princeton university. the 10 year yield, and eight basis point move, 1.42%. these are new numbers. i have to get used to this. thank you for listening on radio and television. stay with us through the day. ♪

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jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. the countdown to the open starts right now. 30 minutes until the opening bell. equity futures rolling over. bond yields rolling up your 30 year at 2.27. let's get straight to it. we begin with the bait issue. chairman powell doubling down. -- the big issue. chairman powell doubling down. chairman powell: accommodative. we will not tighten monetary policy. we are committed to using our full range of tools. we do have the tools we need. the economy is a long way to full employment. inflation will be under control. this is not a problem for this time. that is what it will take for us to begin to moderate the level of purchases. substantial further progress. until substantial further progress has been made