tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg February 26, 2021 1:30pm-2:01pm EST
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arabia's crown prince signed off on the murder of a washington post columnist jamal khashoggi. the release of the report reflects the biden's decision to recalibrate issues with the kingdom over humans -- human rights. prince has denied any involvement in the killing. president biden takes his first trip to a major disaster site since he took office. left the white house with the first lady, headed to texas, hit hard by the energy crisis this month, which was caused by the extreme cold weather. in easton, the president has -- in houston, the president has two missions. he is also encouraging people to get their vaccines. in the fight against the pandemic, the government is set to lift the state of emergency
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in osaka and parts of the west. it will continue in the tokyo region. -- has quit as the head of the canadian pension board after he went to the united arab emirates for a covid-19 vaccine. he submitted his resignation after discussions with the board of the $377 billion pension fund. global news 24 hours a day, online and at quicktake on bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> welcome to bloomberg markets. taylor: i'm taylor riggs in for matt miller. here are some of the top stories from around the world. markets with resilience closing out the week, one day after a bruising selloff, sparked by fears that inflation rates rising. we speak with danny meyer, the founder of the union square hospitality group who stock started trading he is our guest later this hour. just how bad is covid-19 for the travel business? we speak to travel and leisure ceo michael brown on his outlook. first we have to look at the market. what a week it has been. it is finally friday. amber: i am getting a little recovery on the u.s. markets.
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looking at the s&p 500, a little bit of a comeback from the selloff we saw yesterday. this is the -- as the pressure in the bond market starts to abate. tech stocks rallying, in part driven by earnings significant on the back of the quarterly results. commodities, a pause on the reflation trade, reflected in the energy stocks pulling back. what a week. let's just reflect not only on the week of the past two months, particularly in the bond market, where we saw a 50 basis point move. canada put together what happens since 2000. it is incredibly rare, but when you see a selloff of this magnitude, the next two months are tepid and often you see a little bit of a rally in the bond market. the question is -- what is going to happen this time around?
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if you look back at history, perhaps the worst is over. let's bring in bloomberg opinion columnist nir kaissar to talk us through some of this. what do you think about the insight that the worst of the selloff likely is behind us? do you agree with that assessment? taylor: do we have you still? i think we might have lost him. we will work on amber getting him back. i love that chart of bond markets. we just came off of 30 minutes talking about real yields. amber: are you sick of it already to keep going? taylor: we can do this all day long, amber. you are talking about not only the level of gains in the bond market but the rate of change,
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how quickly yields have really moved up and then falling back down on that. you think about the financial additions, the tightening, and if there is any sort of sigh of relief in the market is that real yields still continue to be negative, which is still supportive of this market. if that weren't to be the case, the fed might have a problem on its hands. for now, as long as gilt yield state negative, then awfully all of this certainly seems to be contained. these moves have been spooking a lot of bond investors. amber: i think that is where if there was fear in panic, it wasn't on the levels but how quickly we were there. we heard from a number of fed members this week who are not panicked at all and look at this and said, yeah, perhaps this looks like an appropriate level
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and we are not concerned. we know it is something they are watching and as for this "selloff", done by a couple percentage points from all-time highs. it continuation of not a selloff but a rotation out of the tech stocks that have really done almost all the heavy lifting since last year and into "more value oriented sectors," and there is reopening play. taylor: we have reestablished this connection with nir. what do you think of the rate of change we have seen in the bond movement this week? nir: sorry about that. i think we have to put it in longer-term perspective. i said earlier i am not sure how
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much of it in the move is what you would expect for the recovery. i think we should remind people that what we are talking about is a 10 year that is now at let's call 1.5. the 10-year is roughly 6% with a standard rate of three percentage points. you are talking about an environment we have very low interest rates, still after this move. what is the likelihood that you are going to see significant upticks into anything that resembles a more normal environment? my guess is it is highly unlikely without seeing a serious spike in inflation. i know a lot of people fear that will happen, but we just have to pull back and say, without more evidence we will see a serious increase in prices, we are probably not going to get near-normal interest rates anytime soon. amber: so what is the
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implication for the stock market, which seemed to have jitters about the higher rates? nir: i think we have to be careful there also, because it is not clear there is a direct line between interest rates and stock valuations. when you are looking at stocks, you have to ask yourself, where -- what's going to cause stock prices to go higher? it will be the fundamentals pushing it up or changes. you wouldn't expect interest rates to have a direct impact on fundamentals so we are asking ourselves will there be an impact on sentiment? is difficult to draw that line. what people ought to look at more rather than interest rates, people ought to look at the larger economic environment and i think that is recovery and that bodes well for forecasting general. you would expect to see the rotation we have seen in recent
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months to continue. if you want to look at your portfolio and say mi positioned in the right way, i think you want to say, how much of my portfolio has done well in the late cycle and in an economy affected by a pandemic, and do i have the balance to prepare for a rotation? that will inform folios. taylor: nir kaissar , always good to have you. coming up, danny meyer is joining the stock boom. we talk to him about his tech firm that just went public and, of course, indoor dining. this is bloomberg. ♪
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taylor: this is "bloomberg markets." it was amazing 24 hours ago with the earnings and they got price target increases. morgan stanley and loop capital starting to see some improvement. you really need to see a full list of the indoor dining lists before we can think about the new normal. amber: it is amazing. we are looking at the chart up 86% on the expectation of continued improvement, which you did see in a big way. third quarter, is now flat. as we get closer to a water reopening, the open-ended question is -- how much -- as we
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get closer to a reopening, the open-ended question is how much higher it will go? taylor: let's get to the ceo of union square hospitality, danny meyer. it raised 250 million in its ipo. how are you thinking about the recovery in dining, particularly in a hard hit new york city at this moment? danny: i am glad you asked the question in that sense. we are doing in a lot of different world right now. the full-service restaurant industry has been hit a lot harder than any other segment, because think about what that means. it means you are being greeted at the door by somebody, seated, waited on, someone coming to your table, checking your coat, etc. all of those touching point on the kind of things we don't felt
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-- feel comfortable or haven't felt comfortable or been permitted to do over the last year. the fast casual segment have had much stronger recoveries much more weakly, because those were segments that never fully depended upon in room dining and seating anyway and work much more quickly able to pit to the digital transformation -- pivot to the digital transformation for online and delivery. taylor: how do you think of digital as a business owner. are you looking forward to perhaps retaining a little bit more of the customer experience rather than delegating it to whatever the delivery companies use? danny: i don't think we are going to be relegating or delegating anything. as we get to the point where we look on this very painful last year, there are some silver linings. some of them have to do with entrepreneurial advances restaurants have made.
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in a million years, new york city would never have permitted all restaurants to have outdoor dining. that is now permanent. what that means is on top of however many c2 can have indoors, you are going to be able to increase your seating -- however many seats you can have indoors, you're going to be able to increase your seating outdoors. new york city never would have been nearly as quick to adapt and adapt -- adapt to the world of takeout and delivery. the public at large has so much pent up demand to go to restaurants. as much as we love cooking, we are tired as doing the dishes. as much as we love our families, we love the social experience of being out in a public space. when that comes back, imagine if you can have all of that activity again, which we will, and on top of that for those people who say i feel a dining at home, that they now have
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access to restaurants in way they never did before. taylor: what changes have you implemented that you think will be with us permanently? danny: i would say we are going to continue to look for fewer physical contact points. i am very excited about an initiative we have been thinking about and working on, whereby you should be able to get up and leave without having to wonder how to ask for your check. if you can imagine saving 10 or 15 minutes on a not to mention some aggravation every single dining experience you have, that is a good thing for the guests and for restaurants who need to and want to turntables more quickly. i also think a permanent change is you will not see menus in restaurants that read like encyclopedias. we are not going to want to or be able to have nearly the volume of cooks in the kitchen working in close quarters together. i also think guests over this period of time have come to say,
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if you give me six great items, that's a whole lot better than 15, where half of them might or might not be my favorite dish. amber: let's talk about this. you have the restaurant expense and knowledge down, but look -- when you look at the perspective, that may not be in the area you buy a company. what are you thinking? danny: we love the restaurant industry and we have been doing it for a long time. one of the things we have learned not just to the full-service restaurants, but on many different public boards i've served on an companies i've gone to speak to is that hospitality is a business principle applies across all industries. we are at a time where what you do as well as you do it is no longer a way to distinguish her company. if i were a recipe --
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distinguish your company. if i were a recipe writer, 40% is based on how well you do it and 51% is how you make your stakeholders feel while you are doing it. competition has never been higher. competition for customers has never been higher and the stakeholder model of capitalism is catching on everywhere. that is the segment we are focusing on. it is a specific cultural segment and we think it is an exciting time to be launching a spac so we can shine a light on a company for someone we wish we would have hired. amber: why it -- taylor: why it spac. danny: we have about 11 or 12 investments so far and they have been doing fantastic and we love that, but many times while we
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are looking at culture first, we find the business we are looking in, we may have missed the boat as private equity investors because they are that much further along in their revolution -- and their evolution. it gives us a way to fill in some of the ecosystem because we have met so many great founders and they -- and continue to support them so that when they are ready to become a public company, we can help support that journey for them. taylor: thank you so much for joining us. danny meyer, the ceo of union square hospitality. when we come back, tourism has been affected. we will speak to the ceo of travel and leisure to see what a comeback in tourists might be. michael brown will be joining us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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amber: thank you so much for joining us on "bloomberg markets." it feels like we never left march of 2020 and here we are in 2021. more vaccines come into the market. the latest could be j and. we are seeing -- j&j. vaccine administrations move higher. if you squint you can see the end of the tunnel. taylor: it was 24 hours ago when airbnb came out with huge demand pipeline. the stock is up 14%. people starting to take vacations again, renting out homes. airbnb encouraged by the willingness to travel, which of course hinders on the vaccine rollout, as you mentioned. amber: i was amazed in airbnb.
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obviously they have seen a setback in results but generating a huge amount of sales. it is not like it is a business that plunged 20. i would like to bring in michael brown, the ceo of travel and leisure. you are a perfect example of a company that not all tourism was hit the same. hotels is a different picture, but the value proposition at travel and leisure is different, you offer longer-term rentals and perhaps more timeshares. at a time when people were stuck at home, they were evaluating is this the home i want to be stuck in. talk about how those dynamics played into the company. michael: it has been a long last year. clear things have played through. leisure travel will lead the tourism recovery.
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we reopened our resorts last year and every time we saw positive signs as it relates to the pandemic, we saw commitment pickup and we are seeing leisure demand really accelerate and given that we are a 100% leisure business, it bodes well for the remainder of 2021. dynamically what we are seeing is people want more space when they travel, just exactly what we offer. want to travel to a name they trust, and we are seeing an acceleration to those destinations as opposed to resorts that require airplane travel. taylor: is the lack of international travel at this moment hurting or is enough domestic travel compensating for that? michael: this is traditionally in percent of revenues are u.s. centric, so therefore what we
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saw as a change to our business was traditionally about 70% of our guests will arrive by car and that accelerated up to over 90% at the worst times during the pandemic. it really hasn't affected our ability to accept resorts to guests and we have been very encouraged by the speed of which the leisure travel has both changed how they travel and came to our resorts. amber: talk to me about cleanliness as a service, which it really has become whether traveling by air or going to hotels. how much have you had to increase that part of your business, and how permanent do you expect it to be? michael: it has been very clear over the last year that people's willingness to travel has been directly tied to their feeling of comfort of where they traveled. we obviously took additional
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steps beyond our normal ones to provide that comfort. we worked with great cleaning vendors to revisit and enhance our cleaning standards. what we saw and we heard feedback directly from consumers is that has given them the confidence and comfort to travel. i think it also matters you are traveling with a new can trust, to know that weber is checking you in, you have an expectation and that expectation will be met -- that whoever is checking you in, you have an expectation will be met. the new normal will be more around cleanliness and the idea of space. taylor: we have to leave it there travel and leisure ceo michael brown this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪ . -- michael brown. this is bloomberg. ♪
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stories we are following, president biden takes his first trip to a major disaster site since he took office texas was hard-hit by the energy crisis earlier this month with extreme cold weather. in houston, biden is looking at damage caused by the weather and encouraging people to get a coronavirus vaccine. most americans are closer to receiving 1400 out relief payments and the house is expected to pass the present's one point not -- president's 1.9 chili dollar stemless package, but the final legislation probably will not include minimal wage of $15 per hour as the senate parliamentarian ruled the way tight could not be considered under the same fast track rules used to push the stimulus through congress. today, a panel of fda advisers is taking a close look at a johnson & johnson coronavirus vaccine, in one of the final steps toward possible authorization of the c
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