tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg February 28, 2021 6:00pm-8:00pm EST
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as business closed for the lunar new year holiday and virus restrictions hit that usually frenetic travel season. japan lifted the state of emergency in osaka and other prefectures as virus cases slow. questions remain over tokyo and plans for the olympics. warren buffett is accused of a tone deaf response in his annual letter to shareholders and we look at what he said and what he did not. haidi: we are getting the australian house prices coming through for february, a big number, 2%. expectation was not that high. it really shows acceleration from january's number of .7%. this is the biggest rise in the corelogic australia index we have seen in 17 years. we continue to see a red hot housing market particularly in capital cities like sydney, or we saw a gain of 2.5% for the month. houses and apartments sold auction hit a record high in
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february. we are seeing record low interest rates as well as a recovery from the pandemic lockdown, as well as a broader recovery in the australian labor market continuing to drive home prices further higher. the rba meets this week. let's take a look the open now. sophie: we have more data from australia do later today including home loans data and korean trade numbers are due. central banks have been pledging support for bonds as well as economies, helping to study nerves in the bond markets. the aussie 10 year yield earlier 24 basis points the biggest drop for tenure rates intent -- and a heirs. the three year hovering around 12 basis points. wondering if rba may act for the policy decision this week. the start of the asked 200, shares moving this morning as
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they are resuming trade, ubs looking his price target for the company after they launched a capital raise. looking the board to check what is going on elsewhere ahead of japan's open. nikkei futures a move to the upside here, keeping an eye on backseat supply chain players, after the u.s. fda cleared johnson & johnson's vaccine for use in the country. and the[-] opening to the outside of .2% after the benchmark top to two-week decline in the face of rising yield and treasury futures this morning will very much focused on that after we saw the 10 year breach that 1.6% level last week. wti outing 1% this morning and markets will be waiting for the opec plus meeting to see what discussion will be around reviving global supply. offshore yuan as we digest the chinese pmi data holding below 648 after touching 650 last week. shery: let's talk about the data
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out of china because the economic recovery slowed in february. factory shut during that lunar new year and virus restrictions had what is usually the busy travel season. markets quaker tom mackenzie joins us from beijing. how about a slowdown? tom: both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing gauges for february came in below, significantly below estimates. in terms of manufacturing pmi, front and center in this data set, you did see a significant slowdown. in terms of new export and export orders. the total manufacturing pmi, the central number, was 50.6 down from 51.3 in january. but it was exports i got heavily hit in that data set. in terms of nonmanufacturing, construction, services, that also came in well below the estimates. he pointed to this. there was a double whammy effect for both data sets. one was the annual lunar new
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year holiday when most businesses and factories close and the other were travel restrictions in place to curb virus outbreaks we saw. that restricted tourism and spending on things like hotels and services. so there was the double while the effect. bloomberg economics says this data does not pick up on a revival in economic momentum toward the end of february. indeed early indicators suggest how cells and car sales and exports all picked up. so this recovery we are seeing in china is far from over. haidi: and tom, it is national people's congress season at the end of the week. what are we expecting to be the key agenda items? tom: premier li keqiang will take the stage friday and deliver his work report in the morning to kick off the annuals people's congress the annual gathering of the never's of the
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party, business elite here in beijing. the targets are going to be focused as they are every year. this is particularly important given the recovery we are seeing on the back of the virus, and some of the international struggles china continues to face. the gdp target, will they set a gdp target remains a question and there's a big chance they won't and they did not last year. again to give themselves breathing room as they try to shore up the economy here. in terms of the deficit, air survey of economists to just they will reduce the deficit target from 3.6% last year to 3% this year. concerned about a buildup and leverage and the debt ratio here as well. you should expect the deficit number target to come down. we are going to get the defense spending numbers and we will get details about the five-year plan, how china plans to prioritize economy and internationally and systems it put in place to shore up supply chains here around technology will all be unpacked over the 10 days or so of the national people's congrethey gets underwy
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here in beijing. haidi: markets analyst tom mackenzie with the preview. more on china's economic outlook through the day. we will speaking to a guest on policy priorities and news from barclays and deutsche bank later. let's get you to vonnie quinn in york with first word headlines. vonnie: hong kong authorities charge dozens of activists under china's sweeping national security law days before the opening of the mainland highest profile meeting. 55 figures were arrested in january and 47 now face charges of subversion. former lawmakers and protesters are angel pending court appearances monday. myanmar -- in jail pending court appearances monday. myanmar forces accused of killing 18 people. the cr says police fired live ammunition in crowds in at least
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six cities with dozens more people wounded. css the shooting of unarmed citizens shows late disregard for international law and calling on the army to be held to account. policymakers in australia signaling they will not shirk from their defense of ill targets and qe programs ahead of -- defensive yield targets and qe programs. governor phil lowe is likely to focus on response to global trade, and central banks challenge. pushing the dollar toward .80 us. warren buffett accused of a tone deaf response in his latest annual letter to shareholders that barely mentions the pandemic which devastated the u.s. economy, and steers clear of politics and the storming of the u.s. capitol last month. he is been silent since last year's annual meeting. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
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i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. shery: still ahead, as johnson & johnson's coronavirus vaccine becomes the third shot cleared in the u.s., and dr. anthony found she tells people not to shop around for preferred vaccine. with yields in the spotlight we speak to an asia portfolio manager who joins us next for her outlook. this is bloomberg.
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investors saw the levels of yield and how fast the mute -- the move was. >> that's right, most investors are looking for rates to go up. but the speed surprise some investors. it is important to keep in mind about rise in inflation and interest rates is healthy for the u.s. and global economies. it is consistent with our current economic recovery from the pandemic-induced recession. shery: in the long-term it may not be destabilizing but when it comes to your for folio allocations what do you do? especially when you see rate differentials? >> does good question. -- that is a good question. they could but what happens when interest rates rise. it changes your discount rates.
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so with respect to equities, those equities looking for dividends in the future were being discounted at a most equal footing as today. so that was great for companies that had lots of growth and maybe not to much growth today, the high flyers like technology companies. the reverse is happening -- plus the reverse is happening. in terms of equities we think the most vulnerable would be companies that have benefited from bond rates. as rates rise those dividends in the future would be discounted now at a higher rate. similarly for bonds, if you think about what the interest rate differential is doing, it is saying the u.s. dollar is going to give you higher yield compared to other asian countries? we do think the u.s. dollar might mildly strengthen from here relative some asian
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currencies given everything staying the same at this point. haidi: we don't usually look to china for a lack of volatility. look at this chart on the bloomberg at chinese bond yields that started a decline in april but they have been largely stable and unchanged since november the end of last year. last year the yield by chinese bond rose just one basis point versus 15 basis points for the u.s. ten-year. is this where you would look for a lack of correlation with global bonds? and maybe a nice waiter diversify? >> i think the chinese economy has a ways march to the beat of its own drum. if you look at the toolsets the government has, not just in monetary policy, they really have many tools at their disposal, in fact china has started to already let up on the gas pedal you know several
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months ago and you see that with respect to property market, with respect to several other sectors and as a result we really don't see you know, chinese yield backing up anymore, but may be stabilizing from here? so, to your question, whether this is a good play for yields, we think so, especially given you are getting you know a double solid credit here and in many ways it really is a developed market when it comes to underlying [-] of a sovereign 's when you look at the diversification benefit that it syncs with the rest of the world rises, it is a long-term investment to consider. haidi: in one of the more dramatic moves and the reaction from the rba last week it feels like australian bond yields aussie dollars got the cold face of this turmoil, what is your outlook for aussie out -- asset
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including aussie bonds and the aussie dollar given that there are really positive prospects for inflation with iron ore the commodities cycle? >> if you look at the underlying aussie economy it is more turbocharged by things like commodities, like the recovery in china, so as a high beta play there is no doubt aussie assets may see that in the future callers -- quarters. shery: we have a faster vaccination campaign come economic campaign and the u.s. stimulus package upcoming as well, right? now we have the senate committee considering an infrastructure package. does that pose a risk we are going to see more moves? >> let's start with the base case. we think inflation and interest rates will stay at averages of
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the last 5-10 years. we think we are in a low interest rate regime. however, there could be risk to that outlook, right? to your point, one of the biggest risks potentially out there is an infrastructure spending bill. the order of magnitude of something like that would have to be big we think, we are talking the order of magnitude of the u.s. highway spending of the 1950's or the medicare act which took place in the 1960's, both of which were multiyear spending bills that cost the u.s. a couple percentage points of its fiscal budget. as a result we are looking at the size of what is on the table now. while they are material, it is hard to see the are going to be sufficient to move the inflation needle, so it is something you are watching at it as a potential. but right now it is not a probable base case. haidi: great to have you joining
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us. a quick programming note. j.p. morgan chase chairman and ceo jamie dimon will sit with us for an exclusive conversation with bloomberg at the j.p. morgan 2021 level high yield leverage conference at 5:30 a.m. tuesday if you are watching us early from city. coming up johnson & johnson vaccine is the third coronavirus shot approved in the u.s.. dr. anthony fauci says now is not the time to get picky about which vaccine you choose. this is bloomberg. ♪ so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure?
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approved in the u.s. over the weekend. the first shots will arrive tuesday and are being sent through all delivery channels. let's get the latest from editor ian fisher. when do we see the shots being part of the rollout? >> as you said, just as happened with pfizer and moderna, they will start going out immediately. they say it will be and states as early as tuesday. i can tell you the states are extremely dizzy asked again governors have been promising citizens shots will be here, and it will be a significant increase to the vaccine supply which they have complaint has been too small, so this is a very good thing for states begging for more vaccines. shery: what is the difference
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between the johnson & johnson shot with the others available now like moderna and pfizer? >> on the convenient side it is a monsanto's -- it is a one shot dose. you do not have to go in for two shots. also it does not have to be stored in ultracold temperatures, as them moderna and pfizer vaccine do. so it is easier to handle and store and get out to places like pharmacies and community health centers that may not be is equipped with cold storage requirements for the other vaccines. on the other hand, it does have somewhat lesser effectiveness, efficacy, against the disease in general, about 70% versus 90 something percent for the
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others. however, when it comes to serious disease and death, it is very highly effective. haidi: today we heard from dr. anthony found two warning against this practice of wanting to shop around for the best vaccine. >> we have to get away from that chain of thought for the following reasons. the only way you know the difference between vaccines is by comparing them head to head. haidi: so it is not just vaccine hesitancy are worried about, also vaccine arbitrage? >> yes, i have heard people and you may have as well say, i do not want to get the astra shot or the johnson shot is not is gives the pfizer shot and i think what dr. fauci was saying is, look, they all have very high rates of efficacy. and the important thing is to
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build immunity among everybody. so, especially when it comes to very serious disease and death, there appears to be no difference between them. so, the goal from a public health perspective, is to get as many people as possible to get shots, to build up to that herd immunity, the point where the virus cannot circulate as much. this is why his discouraging people from doing it and saying the only way it can compare his head-to-head is a scientific thank, saying you are comparing -- a scientific thing, saying that you are comparing percentages whereas in the real world the differences are quite small. shery: bloomberg editor ian fisher in your. with the coronavirus pandemic the american economy has been ravaged and we are waiting to get more insights. president biden's relief package now in the hands of the senate after the house of representatives pass the bill
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saturday morning. our global economics and policy editor kathleen joins us with more. kathleen: of course now this bill, $1.9 trillion in virus relief, goes to the senate. the passing of the house by 219-212 vote, and two democrats voted against it, not a single republican. lawmakers on both sides of the aisle rely something needs to be passed and mostly they disagree on the size and scope of it. the unemployment benefits the federal government has been providing alongside state unemployment benefits expire march 14, and that is now just two weeks away. so there's a lot of urgency here. joe biden says he hopes this bill will get pick action in the senate that we have no time to waste. janet yellen former fed chair
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and now treasury secretary says, as an economist and an american, i applaud the house's favorable bill on this -- favorable vote on this bill. she went on to say there is broad consensus among economists that people need help keeping a roof over their head and food on the table until this pandemic is under control. president biden and democrats have to woo some support or at the least every democrat in the senate house about yes. they have to have 50 plus the vice president, harris to get this past. democrats are choosing the gop of not wanting to pay so much. the gop representative gavin nunez said this plan is eight/fund -- a slush fund, more money for vaccine funding. finally the question of the minimum wage, $15.
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possibly not going anywhere. the senate parliamentarian said it cannot be part of the bill since it does not meet the reconciliation standard, so that is not going for now. democrats are talking about a 5% tax on big companies who do not pay $50 per hour to find a different, -- an update $15 per hour to find a way to get there at if it way. >> a big week for eco-data in the u.s. as well. what are you watching? is there an dictation the data will support the need to grow big? kathleen: the data are going to be fine and will show growth. the question is, i think you are still going to have democrat and janet yellen singh we need to go back. this shows -- and janet yellen saying that we need to go big. when you look at payroll, they are supposed to rise by 180,000, and that is much more than 49,000. the problem is there are still millions of unemployed. that is why many say you need
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chris this is daybreak: asia. factories and businesses close during the lunar new year holiday. and virus restrictions curb frenetic travel season. the initial pmi reading fell to a nine-month low in january. that is lower than the median estimate of 51 in the bloomberg survey. southeast asia's leading ride-hailer is setting up
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vaccination services in indonesia to help inoculate against covid-19. the program non--- launched in bali makes it mandatory for citizen to to receive a shot. in asia has suffered the largest outbreak in southeast asia and has to vaccinate at least 70 million people by august. five republican senators have warned president biden to keep away from a nuclear deal with iran. some democrats have voiced concerns. the 2015 accorded riddled with problems, according to them, with unrealistic timelines. biden has indicated he would return to talks with iran but has seen little tangible response. top russian critic alexey navalny has been moved to a penal camp said to be by its own end -- its own inmates. he was detained last month for violating polk parole in 2014. it is 100 kilometers east of the russian capital.
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prisoners are not subject to good conditions and are, in fact , subject to constant intimidation and isolation. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn, this is bloomberg. >> we are half an hour away from trading in japan. south korea is closed on a holiday. >> we are seeing futures point higher, indicating a cautious start to the asian session. nikkei futures in singapore gaining ground. rebounding slightly after the worst drop in six months on friday. bonds markets very much in focus, the obvious bond market is driving across the curve. this is ahead of the tuesday policy decisions on the 10 year
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yield falling behind about 24 basis points. checking in on the aussie dollar, we are seeing that the currency is edging higher, while prices are holding near a nine-year high. gold prices are edging up slightly this morning after capping the worst month since 2016 for bully and. --bullion. the only thing that will right the ship for gold is f central banks thwart the expectations for bond yields. this is ahead of the opec meeting, with goldman saying commodities related still have room to play catch up to the exuberant oil and copper prices. taking a bigger picture view on commodities, pull up the chart on a terminal. we see policy tightening. the rally we have seen in raw materials, copper, it is on a nine-year high. still managing to pull through with the best year ever. that is been helping the rebound
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. energy shock -- energy stocks stood out as a bright stock -- bright spot in asia last week. >> attention will be on beijing this week as thousands della -- thousands of delegates gather for the national congress to announce key policies for 2021. it is its 14th -- it will unveil its 14 five-year plan. bloomberg opinion columnist richard mcgregor is with us. richard, the economy is coming on freddie well -- is coming on pretty well. what are the policy priorities, particularly pertaining to the environment, that you will expect from friday onward? >> as often the case with china, the broad policy priorities have been signals. -- have been signaled. it is green energy. they have a carbon neutral
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target by 2060. it will be difficult to reach. tech investment spending, that is obviously -- politically, but also a foreign policy imperative , to make sure china's not reliant on the u.s. in so far as key supply chains. i think those are the main ones. on top of that, i think the general emphasis will be, as we have seen on recent years, higher quality growth. difficult to achieve, but these are the big picture aims president g was set for the party -- president xi will set for the party. >> there is a growing debate, particularly after the pandemic year. does a gdp growth target help achieve quality growth or does it make an arbitrary policy, particularly at a government -- a local level? >> the system and china has been
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chipping away at the publication of a target growth rate each year. it is very much against it. all sorts of officials at the local level spend money just to reach that rate. i dare not predict. is difficult to predict, you can end up with egg on your face. the tom-toms out of china suggest that, in any case, we can expect a strong year of growth from china. we are putting their targets at 6%. they do not need to do that this year. we are all expecting growth, as the imf and world bank have productive, between 7% and 8%. >> we're seeing with chinese economic numbers over the weekend, perhaps signaling that the fruits of economic gains have already been picked. how will china stand against the u.s. when it comes to this ongoing rivalry? we do not see this let upcoming
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from the biden administration. >> it is a long-term thing. we will be talking about it for many years. the biden administration, even some of their critics want to acknowledge, they made a pretty sure footed start. they are hopeful about passing a big stimulus in the u.s. if you look at some of the investment banks in the u.s. predicting a growth rate in the u.s. this year between 6% and 7%, which is pretty dramatic. but one of the big issues for china, in u.s. growth is, is u.s. dollar and u.s. debt. that weighs on chinese fiscal policy and chinese currency policy. that is the economic side of the contest between the u.s. and china, of course, it is multifaceted, as you alluded to, on technology in particular. on tariffs which are still
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imposed on chinese imports into the u.s., none of that looks like it will let up in the near term. shery: not to mention the ongoing humanitarian issues between the two sides, whether in chin jang with the weaker population or with police charging off -- opposition activists in hong kong. how do these issues risk the relationship in the next few years? >> many people in china say that china is able to crack down on hong kong and will continue to and will not pay a price for that. i guess that is true in the short-term, but, over the longer term these sorts of issues hardened attitudes in washington and also in the capitals of many other mainly developed countries, not just developed countries. you can see the issue seeping through and countries in
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southeast asia and the middle east. not in a concrete fashion, but over time they will. i think that is part of the competition, the contest of the values of the political systems and the like. really dramatic stuff with hong kong ending any political polarity and the ongoing issue in xinjiang, i think that makes competition and contests between the u.s. and china even more likely. haidi: how critical is it for xi jinping to take and i on hong kong when it comes to maintaining his personal grip on power? it's interesting, richard, a year ago we talked about the pandemic being an inflection point for people being angry at xi jinping and the government. they managed to turn that around. >> definitely. i think if we look back a year ago people were talking about china's sure noble, we are a
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long way from that. we have a confident china, they obstruct a big trade deal with europe and another with asia. they said they were the only major economy last year to grow. they are fighting with the u.s. so there is a rally around the flag moment as well. xi jinping i thick is very strong and secure. he has a lot of critics but they have nowhere to go at the moment. xinjian in hong kong, i think he supports the crackdown in them both. but we still do not know the internal dynamics, internal politics about xinjiag, so we have much to learn there i think. haidi: i want to end on beijing relations. there is no relations with australia at the moment. trade remains very much rollback. what is a way forward?
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what needs to happen in that relationship? >> i think the australian government is settling in for a long and difficult time. i'm not expect any let up this year, probably next year as well. nothing consumptive -- nothing can settle down until debate settles down. it has to some extent. it is quieter now than it was three months or six months ago. but australia will be making statements about hong kong and xinjian, australia will be taking people leaving hong kong. it will not settle down and move back into the sunny a plan. it will set it -- it will settle at a low level. on top of which, the chinese trade sanctions will hurt australia in a way that they have not at the moment. shery: richard mcgregor,
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hour away from the open in japan. south korea is closed for a holiday. nikkei futures pointed upward. more than a percent at the moment. the dollar yen is the highest since august. his holding around 106. we have some data out this week out of japan. do watch out for that. in the meantime, when it comes to virus infections across the country, while japan has lifted the state of emergency early in the six prefectures, including osaka, underscoring progress against coronavirus that has better the economy, the prime minister -- and the prime ministers approval rating as well, isabel reynolds joins us now. isabel? what changes now? >> right, so the emergency was declared in january. it entailed having bars and
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restaurants close at 8 p.m.. rest -- residents were encouraged to work at home as far as possible and avoid unnecessary outings. there was no official curfew. were no fines on individuals. national cases went down, daily cases from 8000 in early january to somewhere around 1000 or 1200 they have been devastating for retail and restaurants. in tokyo, the current mandate ends march 7. but there has been a worrying tailing off in the fall of cases. it is likely that the end date will be extended beyond march 7 in tokyo and the surrounding areas. haidi: what's the latest we are hearing about the olympics? we could see the arrival of athletes very soon. >> right, so there has been a
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report in the last few days that japan will allow for an athlete to enter the country as soon as the emergency is over, which we are not quite sure when i will be. but they have said they will not require vaccinations and will not even require quarantine. this is an issue that might be quite unpopular with the public. we have to wait and see how that goes down with the general public to have been quite cautious. we've seen polls show that 80% of the public do not want to see the olympic -- olympics held this year. the plans for the torch relay have started to be put in place. the big question remains, whether they will allow foreign spectators to come in from overseas. that obviously is something that could be quite risky, and health
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terms, given that vaccinations have only just started in japan and won't have gotten pretty far i the time deal a picks start on july tony third. >> are politics reporter in tokyo, isabel reynolds. hear more from today's big news did -- newsmakers, we are broadcasting live from our studio in hong kong. you can listen to the app, bloombergradio.com, this is bloomberg. we have more ahead. ♪
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haidi: this week march it -- marks 10 years since the launch of bloomberg technology. over that decade, tech has transformed how we accomplish daily tasks. here's a snapshot of some of the products that helps define the era. >> it works like magic. >> in 2011, apple was on a roll. products like the macbook air, a thinner faster ipad, and the iphone for x, which introduced us to siri. >> here is a place matching on the day. >> it was the last time steve jobs took the stage. 2012 marks mobility, as we saw tesla unveiled the model s, the launch of lot -- ridesharing company lyft, and google had a driverless car. 2013 saw virtual worlds
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dominate. sony playstation four made a splash and google debuted glass, but with a price tag of $1500, you can say that glass never went mad. in sway 14, it seems we needed a little help in the form of nai personal assistant, amazon alexa. inspired by the computer voice on board the starship enterprise, alexa offered real-time info and follow commands. >> i put wrapping paper on your shopping list. >> 2015 was all about the heavens. samsung galaxy six impress critics and the falcon nine successfully landed back on earth, marking a major achievement in reusable engines. in 2016, more wearables gave us apple air pods in the first commercial version of the oculus rift before facebook bought it. in 2017, tesla's model three change the conversation around electric cars, making them more
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accessible and, designwise, more desirable. if it was a convertible you're after, 2018 had microsoft flexing its ultralight and versatile -- >> you can use it at your desk or on your laugh. >> 2019 gave us the magic kingdom's foray into streaming. disney plus debuted, becoming a rival to netflix. in 2020, the year of the pandemic, uber eats generated 4.8 billion dollars in revenue and pellet gun exploded more than a hundred 70%. it brings us to 2021, where we can expect more cloud, more ai, more quantum computing, and 5g. and that $100 in bitcoin you bought a decade ago? it is worth around $5 million. congratulations. emily chang, bloomberg, san francisco.
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shery: we are looking back at a decade of innovation to mark 10 years of bloomberg technology. another big moment, at least for investors across asia, we will watch this bloomberg technology interview. we have three guests coming up. do not miss that. let's turn to one big investor moment, berkshire hathaway's annual report. warren buffett is being accused of a tone deaf response in his later missive to shareholders. the 15 page letter barely mission -- rarely mentions the pandemic that has devastated the u.s. economy and steers clear of the storming of the u.s. capitol last month. let's bring in our finance reporter. >> it's true, we do not hear
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much from warren buffett in 2020, and that lengths this letter more weight. i think investors were eager to hear how his businesses have been faring during the pandemic and his thoughts on how it was all going. it was a bit surprising that we do not see him mention the pandemic, he really stuck to his talking about berkshire and his company and how it was doing. we did not get his broader takes on these economic issues. he repeated his familiar refrain of never bet against america, but he did not steer into the political stuff he has tried to avoid over the past four years. it was revealing, but it missed some of the big topics people were eager to get his thoughts on. haidi: in terms of his investments, what were the biggest takeaways from the letter? >> the biggest one is that he
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spent a lot talking about buybacks, even more than he's -- he spent talking about dealmaking, which is a huge shift for berkshire. this underscores how he has change the country in the last few years. he has struggled to find the deals. he admitted in the last letter that his last big deal was a mistake. he overpaid for it. the company is a fine one, he said it is a good business, but he overpaid for it. for him to admit to a mistake and then to talk more about buybacks, it really shows he is willing to put berkshire's one under $38 billion cash file to work in different ways, even if markets are not so favorable for his acquisition factor. haidi: that was our finance reporter joining us from new york. now a quick check at the latest business headlines. walmart has lured to senior goldman sachs bankers to lead a
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fintech start up. they plan to offer financial services. now we have learned that the head of goldman-s consumer bake -- bank and his top lieutenant are joining the new venture. citigroup is restating fourth-quarter results after writing down part of a loan for revlon. it has rights as a predator as -- over the troubled cosmetics company. they have tried to send an interest payment to some revlon lenders last year, with additional cost. the world's top yogurt maker is preparing to sell a stake in china's dairy by converting an investment into direct holdings. the 9.8% stake is holding directly with a value of about $1 billion. the majority of the cash would be returned to shareholders through a buyback.
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haidi: let's say a look at some of the stocks we are watching. this sydney session, let's look ahead to trading across broader asia. >> watching japanese banks enjoy the best gain since november 2016. this is a bank that works to restore acm and online services after a nationwide pledge on sunday. sony is opening up its place asian 54 storage upgrades this summer. it may cut the prices for its discount. the japanese pharma player is finally impacted with a covid vaccine candidate japan. keep an eye on companies across the vaccine supply chain after johnson & johnson was cleared for emergency use in the u.s.. shery: we will be watching. coming up, barclays chief china economy -- economist coming up.
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businesses are closed in china for the lunar new year. and hong kong charges dozens of people under the sweeping national security law. shery: we start off with breaking news out of south korea. we are getting there february trade numbers. when it comes to exports year on year, a growth of 9.5%. this is missing a amid's. we expected double-digit growth for the month of february. it is coming down from -- excuse me -- double-digit growth in the previous month. i think i'm losing my voice, do you want to take over? haidi: we are getting some breaking numbers when it comes to the inflation. investors keenly watching out for any indication of actual inflation as the results of the bond turmoil and the
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reflationary expectations we are seeing. up 1/10 of 1%. that is actually a fall from the 2/10 of 1% in the month prior. and 1.6%, slightly better than 1.5%. we are seeing, in addition to that, a huge doubt -- a huge jump in it comes to australia's property prices. they are recovering from consumption and retails sales after the emergence of the economy from lockdown. but we are not seeing meaningful plicns on the inflation outlook there. let's take a look at how markets are faring with the start of trading in asia proper. >> south korean markets off nine, but japanese market's coming online. the nikkei at between 9000, closing that level on friday. the were session for japanese stocks since april. jgb's are climbing.
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and following on the boj's policy review. and let's check the look at australia's market so far. we're seeing stocks rebound after the worst drop in about six months on friday. aussie bond traders are going to watch and cfe bank takes action. the 10 year yield is falling by about 25 basis points this morning. is retreating further from 2% after the governor pushback on hawkish price setting. we're seeing whi rising by more than 1% ahead of the opec-plus meeting this week. the group is expected to return some barrels to market with that discussion. the offshore yuan holding below six 48. the latest pmi data is out for the weekend from china. maury -- more readings later
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this monday. credit suisse saying they see potential for the u.s. ten-year to reach 1.8 or 2%. shery? shery: i think i got my voice back. when it comes to thosear which g expectations, because the expectations were for another month of double-digit gains, and we have double-digit gains the last two months -- imports though, a big rise, still below expectations but still a huge gain from the previous couple of months when we had gains of only around 3% or 2% and even contraction for those imports. where does that leave us when it comes to the trade surplus in south korea for the month of february echo we are talking about a surplus of 2.7 billion dollars. that is higher than estimates.
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korea away on holidays. we will watch what is happening to the korean won. we had risk off sentiment and we are watching bond yields, because this is all about global bonds. let's discuss what is happening in the markets. where joined by that head of bloomberg's live markets blog. the market is all about global bond yields. what should we be watching out for this week? >> absolutely. there is quite a pullback in yields on friday. a little relief this morning. we've seen that featured on the us trillion bond market -- on the australian bond market. that shows a little consolidation, a pause. consolidation before the next leg of a bonds selloff, or is this a turning point? i am airing in the camp that we still have more turmoil to come in the weeks ahead.
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i do not think the central banks have control of the situation yet. i think we will see ongoing pushback. i think, in asia, it will be the rba and boj that will continue to lead the conversation in the terms of fighting back from the central banks. bond markets will be the focus in the next two weeks. the story is not over yet. shery: what are you watching in terms of the currency space? you have the story of the yuan frank which we are seeing -- the yuan strength, and we are seeing a little strength in the greenback as well. >> for me, everything at the moment is -- can the dollar get sustained? given the scale of the move we have seen the yield, it is surprising the dollar has not been stronger. that will encourage the stage long-term dollar bear -- staunch long-term dollar bearer. i'm a little more worried about
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trade over the next couple of months. with that yield move we might see some general deleveraging. when we see that, that means a return to the world reserve currency, which is still the dollar. that is where you get the spill over the consequences. in terms of that, the dollar yuan exchange rate sets the tone for the general dollar, the king dollar direction. that is because the yuan strength is so key to emerging markets generally, so other currencies take the lead from what it does. if the follows done enough for now, we will see what will be flagged by the point. i have some sip of the for that view. for the week ahead, i have a bias for the dollar being slightly stronger. that might be the theme to look for than -- in the next few days. shery: let's go back to the bond rout. public take to end it? in the early part of the trading
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day, yossi 10 year yield plunging 20 basis points. is this the end of what we saw last week? or is there more volatility echo we've a huge number of fed speakers this week. what will they be able to do? >> i do not think they will. the problem here is internal dynamics. the must -- the much talked convex or in the way the u.s. mortgage market is constructed, is not seeing a spiral at the moment. until that dynamic finishes, it will be hard for the bond market selloff to end completely. we have some more font time more time. i don't think the fed will end this easily. shery: the head of bloomberg's market blogs in singapore. for more, we are joined by sean
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darby, always great having you with us. we've already seen pain in the equities markets, especially in a comes to fresh valuations in the tech sector. but one level that is become gainful for stocks in the broader level -- we have seen dividend yields already net net when it comes to -- and neck when it comes to treasury yields. >> that is a good question. the way to look at it is not just through the dividend yield. a lot of those high-tech team names, they have free cash flow yield spreads to treasuries that were almost at a record low. it was a gap of something like 150 basis points, 200 basis points. there was no tolerance for any move in long rates for those tech names. ironically, despite having good earnings, they could not deal with that valuation shift.
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with the broader s&p, the good news is that in general free cash flow yields are nowhere near as stretched. secondly, we have seen the return of buybacks. buybacks were dormant last year, and then they felt it would be quite supportive for stocks. thirdly, paradoxically, economic numbers, particularly earnings numbers, are said to remain very strong. we've had a robust earnings season in the u.s. fourth quarter numbers have shown nearly 18% of the s&p beating market expectations. what i would say to people, it is a wake-up call for complacency with valuations, but i do not at this point think that yields are high enough to hurt the broader equity market. shery: given what has been going on in recent days, we have seen
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incredible gains with financials across the u.s.. is that us -- is that a sector you would go in given the economic environment right now? >> we would broadly be bullish on financials globally. financials work on a number of different levels. not just on the expansion of the yield curve, generally financials like an environment of higher inflation. the vaccine rollout is great news for banks in the sense that they can start to feel the peak of impairment charges is behind them. thirdly, real interest rates at the moment are still negative. lending data should start to be recovering as well. for banks in general, the environment has been a massive shift from what they were experiencing literally one year ago. shery: are emerging market still
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as vulnerable to a temper champ turned this time around, particularly here in asia? it does not feel like the vulnerability is really here in this part of the region given the handling of the pandemic. >> that is a good question. we were much better positioned at the moment then perhaps in previous cycles because, first of all, the balance of payment was in current account positions in great spain -- rate shape. emerging markets find it difficult when short and long rates are going up at the long -- at the same time. this is by no means the worst case scenario. what might grow to be problematic for emerging markets is sometimes towards the end of this year, early next year, when the markets become to discount the fed ratings in 2023, and secondly, because of a lack of effects with the high oil price,
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you start to get meaningful jumps in inflation, particularly from the low base. that's -- that question gets answered towards the end of this year and next year. so far, this has been a relatively painless economic impact from the higher u.s.lds. haidi: always great to have you with us. a whole host of policymakers are preparing to have remarks at various conferences this week. lots to look ahead too. let's get to vonnie quinn with the first look headlines. >> haiti, thank you. the recovery in china slow down during the litter you -- lunar new year holiday. the official pmi readings fell to a nine-month low of 50.6 in january. that is lower than the median
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estimate of 51. online manufacturing gauge also missed forecasts. hong kong authorities have charged dozens of activists under china's sweeping national security law just days before the opening of the mainland's highest profile annual meeting. 55 opposition figures originally arrested in january, 47 -- 55 opposition fixtures -- figures originally arrested in january, 47 faces charge. myanmar has suffered its deadliest day so far with security forces killing at least 18 people. unhcr says that police and soldiers fired live ammunition ink into crowds in at least six cities. it shows a blatant disregard for international law. top russian critic alexey navalny has been moved from moscow to a penal camp that is said to be feared by even its own inmates.
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he was detained last month, accused of violating parole restrictions from 2014, and then now is reportedly in a prison 100 connors east of the robert -- of the russian capital. former inmates say that prisoners are subject to constant intimidation and isolation. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. still ahead, barclays chief china economist will be with us with the outlook for the mainland economy. manufacturing pmi data is coming in the next hour. up next, a university of sydney professor joins us to discuss the latest in the vaccine rollout, growing hesitancy, and looming jab nationalism. this is bloomberg. (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that and more in just 10 minutes a day
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from the rba today. their operations to buy 4 billion australian dollars of bonds has doubled their usual to buy australia government securities. they seem to be in an all out to spend the yield target. we have seen volatility in the 10 year yields today. 20 basis points on the downside. we are wondering if there is further volatility to, or the end of the bond rout we saw last week. extraordinary moves. the central bank moving that it will not be pulling back from the yield target, it's qe measures are designed to hold down borrowing costs, as well. the aussie dollar tickets biggest slide since october last friday. the bond markets have proved fairly resistance, but we are seeing more moves by the rba
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with 4 billion australian dollars in those bonds, double the usual charge that we would see. let's move to the vaccine and u.s. regulations. they have improved -- they have ap johnson & johnson vaccine. the astrazeneca vaccine has arrived in sydney. anthony fauci is pushing back on shopping around for a preferred vaccine. professor lee, it is great to have you with us. let's take a look at what does she for deck -- at what dr. fauci had to say about this. >> we have to get away from that train of thought. the only way you know the differences between the vaccine is by comparing them head-to-head. haidi: we are dealing with vaccine hesitancy and now, according to dr. fauci, vaccine arbitrage, wanting to pick the most effective one.
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>> you want to remember that it is early with these vaccines. we have data but we will learn more about them. their capacity to prevent severe disease, death, but also mere infection. we need to -- i thing the most important thing right now is to make sure people have the vaccine and have the individual protection against hospitalization, disease, and death. haidi: how do you get on top of that? the hesitancy, for the first part. these vaccines have been developed much faster than drugs are typically developed. and there are different options. what is the best way to communicate with people that any of these vaccines is not being bet -- is better than not being vaccinated in you should go out and get your shot? >> we need to understand people's actual concerns. are they concerned with perceived differences in efficacy between different vaccines?
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or are they concerned about safety? all our research around vaccinations so far shows people are more concerned about safety than any other aspect of vaccines and that is probably the thing that will keep them away from wanting to have a vaccine. but even if people are not concerned about safety and are willing to have a vaccine. you need to make sure it is easy to access the vaccine. the logistics and practical side of things remain to be very important. we miss that when we are focused on hesitancy. shery: at the same time, we have seen scandals in australia with the vaccine already. how do you get people to overcome those fears? >> this is not really a scandal. it is an administration error. last week, a doctor giving to patients too much of the vaccine , the patient's should not be
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affected by that. they might have a few more side effects, but extra dosing of vaccines is a little different than other medicines. what can the government do? they quickly communicated about what had happened in a timely way. that means that we know, as a public, what has happened. disclosure is important for sustaining trust. you can also address systemic problems that help lead to those kinds of errors, along with the specific professional who in this case had not done the training, even though they should have. fortunately, we had a nurse who picked it up. the systems are working to some degree. the fact that we know about it and they are reviewing it to improve the system is a good sign. shery: what about systemic misinformation? i am quite shocked at the fact that i do have people around me talking about news and claims
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they see on social media about deaths related to these vaccines, things that are really not true. >> this is a very difficult one. once people are scared, as my colleagues in this area say, it is hard to un-scare them. we need to have good data on the effective misinformation. we know there is a lot of misinformation. people will hear conspiracy theories. they will hear wild ideas about the vaccines. are they affecting people? are those people actually taking notice and will it affect their drive to have a vaccine? that this group -- that requires data and evidence. but also, if it affects people, we call it psychological inoculation, you give them small doses in a supportive environment so they are ready for when they encounter in the wild and then giving them the
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facts in a way tailored to the way they want the facts. this requires attention and careful strategy. and also remembering that sometimes the biggest energies -- enemies are the debates between public and professionals and access issues. shery: what's problematic and adjacent to what sherry was mentioning, is when you have people saying, my father-in-law had covid, and it was a bad cold. is that harder to address? particularly in australia, a lot of people say, we are not vaccinated, and we have not had cases in a number of weeks. we have only had 900 deaths overall. do we really all need to be vaccinated because of this relatively small outbreak? >> there is a section of the disease risk that the vaccine is preventing is a major factor in
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people willing to have a vaccine. what you do with that is a number of different approaches. it depends on the person. if they are complacent, then sometimes appeal to fear and emotion and i can be effective. yet to test it out on an audience to make sure they are acceptable -- you have to tested out on an audience to make sure they are acceptable. but you need to remind people of other impacts on their lives through covid, as well. >> we have to leave it there. thank you. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: -- vonnie: this is daybreak asia. five republican senators have warned president biden to keep away from a new nuclear deal with iran. some democrats are voicing concerns. they have written to the president saying the 2015 accord is written -- is riddled with problems. biden has indicated he would return to talks with iran but has received little tangible response. policymakers in australia are signaling they will not shirk from their defensive yields
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targets and qe programs ahead of tuesday's meeting. governor phil lowe is likely to have a response. the us trillion economy has pushed the dollar toward 80 u.s. cents. the grab program launched in bali in indonesia makes it mandatory to receive a shot. indonesia has suffered the largest coronavirus outbreak in southeast asia and has vowed to vaccinate 70 million people by august. veteran investor warren buffett is being accused of a tone deaf response in his latest annual letter to shareholders. the letter barely mentions the pandemic that devastated the u.s. economy and steers clear of politics and the storming of the u.s. capital. he has been silent since last
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year's eating, declining to conmen on what has been a tumultuous year. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. shery: we have an alert on the bloomberg. air getting the final numbers on the japan bank pmi -- coming in other than the initial estimate. the preliminary number was for 50.6. it has been fluctuating between expansion and contraction but the final number for february coming in at 51.4 at a time we are continuing to see strengthen exports across northeast asia. we have seen the japanese yen a little weaker than expected, though a little pressure upward today but still at the 106 level. the nikkei seeing the best day since december. haidi: we are also taking a look
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at the latest pmi meetings out of southeast asia countries. vietnam remaining a bright spot. the market manufacturing market in vietnam seeing another tick up. malaysia continuing to languish in contractual territory. as well as thailand seeing a market move lower as well. the philippines unchanged. shery: let's talk about the data from china because the economic recovery floating february. sheltering the new year holiday, virus restrictions dampened what is usually a busy travel season. manufacturing fell to a nine-month low as export orders
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plunged and the nonmanufacturing index missed estimates. for more, let's bring in barclays economist john chang. we hnly the new export order numbers but also contraction marking its second biggest on record. how much of the sluggishness in this numbers a fundamental issue with the chinese economy? guest: the manufacturing ratio was below consensus 51 but close to our 50.5 forecast. in our view, the moderation lacks a seasonal weakest -- weakness during the chinese new year. if you look at it compared to 2018, the pmi fell by more.
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but the latest data, the moderation is less than the whole lunar new year related seasonal weakness. the government policy encouraging people to stay local for the new year. shery: we have the national people's congress starting this week. what's the most important thing you will be watching out for? this year we did not get the annual growth target. jian: last year was a new situation. i think number one thing to watch for is the fiscal policy. how low, how much moderation in the fiscal deficit.
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that is one area we are focused on. the second is whether china will announce a gdp growth target. there is still debate going as that government has already been downplaying the growth we may as well just beat the target but another school of thought is giving the -- given that chinese system, it ought to retire the gdp growth target. we may put for example 6% as we see a lot of major province announcing about 6%. haidi: we usually see stability
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in the economy, but long term, where do chinese bonds go from here? we have seen relative calm compared to what has been going on with the rest of the world. jian: i'm an economist, so we have economic fundamentals we would be examining with the gross data -- gross differential china has vis-a-vis the rest of the world. the pboc versus the other major central banks as well as china has the capital flow at the moment. the valiance of -- the trade plus -- trade surplus we have been observing in recent quarters.
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the government will be approving the 45 year trend and we note china has announced a circulation strategy as well as reinforcing each other and [indiscernible] i think we take a constructive medium-term view on the chinese currency outlook. haidi: we know the economy and going green is a major theme. are you expecting more developments or have we had all the policy details they are going to give us? jian: i think this low carbon and green economy has been an
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assessment by the chinese government. work preparations have been undergoing and we expect more announcements in that area. we forgot to mention that supply and security as well as indigenous innovation, that among everything else would be the key focus and priority for the chinese government in the next five years. also to ensure resilience of the supply chain domestically like what the rest of the world has been concerned about. haidi: sticking with the region, we are monitoring the situation hong kong where police have charged dozens of opposition activists with violating the city's sweeping national
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security office software going to take a look at live pictures just outside the courthouse as we await -- given the developments over the weekend, 14 -- 47 opposition activists have been charged under the security law after the 55 figures arrested back in january. these formal accusations, head of china's highest profile political meeting and largest charge under the law so far. the managing editor has the story. these are charges of conspiracy to commit subversion and they were previously facing allegations of subversion. giving the sweeping effect of the people being charged, what does it tell us about what i suppose is going to be the status quo going forward? guest: essentially they are trying to take out the pro-democracy opposition. these charges stem from
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democratic exercises, these activists wanted to choose the representatives who would run in the elections which were eventually suspended. the fact that this is being interpreted as subversion and they are facing charges shows just how much hong kong has shifted since this law was imposed on the territory. shery: could we see more formal changes perhaps at the nbc this week? dan: yes. we are expecting that. they have been eating the drum on changes to the electoral system, so effectively, these charges stem from a primary the activists held ahead of the september elections and those were postponed for a year due to the coronavirus. we are expecting changes to how that election is conducted and all of this is basically to
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ensure beijing has a complete grip over all aspects of hong kong's government from the executive to the civil service and judiciary. the buzz word out of beijing from all officials is patriots need to rule hong kong and anyone deemed not a patriot by the definition of those in beijing will be disqualified or unable to stand in those posts. haidi: the latest on hong kong. coming up next, the hang seng index may see one of the biggest overhauls in its 50 when your history, potentially affecting billions of dollars in funds. details ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: let's take a look at how the markets are doing at the start of a new trading week. sophie what are you seeing? sophie: a reaction to the rba doubling its normal bond buying. the aussie 10 year falling by 32 basis points and the three year hovering around that 12 year level. this is the focus on the longer end of the curb -- of the curve.
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on the board, we see moves in treasury this morning with treasury yields continuing to retreat with the five-year leading the drop across the curve and a 10 year is back below 130 nine. u.s. futures are gaining ground. jgb's are also higher ahead of doj first -- boj bond buying. noting that boj is no -- is in no hurry. japanese stocks are heading higher with the bk above 29,000, rising by more than 2% with tech the biggest boost. pulling up the chart on the terminal, the index looking set to reclaim its 50 day line after the worst drop since -- it could be a buying signal. this in light of optimistic earnings.
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we are seeing companies in asia that have reported earning reports despite what we are seeing from estimates. haidi: investors will find out if the hang seng index will undertake one of the biggest overhauls in its 51 year history. the index provider set to decide if they will change the number of constituents, ratings and fast-track new listings. this would come at a time when we are seeing big changes with these huge homecoming ipo's. what are we expecting today? guest: we are expecting this announcement just before the 4:30 press raving. it would be the biggest overhaul to the index since it started in
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1969. there are five key changes under consideration. one of them would increase the number of constituents to 80. the hang seng index announced an expansion late friday 255, but a big increase. this is the kind of key consideration -- remove the minimum listing requirement and a lot of big chinese companies are coming to hong kong to either sell shares or secondary listings as well. currently, there is a three-month history requirement, it is a particularly important time because of the benchmarks as well.
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shery: in terms of the timing and the outlook, is it a good value given how low it is trading? sofia: it is less than 13 times it's earnings. stocks typically command higher valuations. it is an index that has historically been cheap and it is cheap for a reason. hong kong tends to be the first one to fall but it is also the last one to pick up when you see a big bull market in stocks globally. that's what we saw last year when the hang seng index fell when the world's markets were overshooting. the idea is you shake off the index. it's cheap for a reason that
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streaming service plans to offer cheaper subscriptions. the vp spoke exclusively to bloomberg. >> it is a very exciting time for us. this is our broadest market expansion and is part of our ongoing commitment to building an audio system across all of the world and reality. it has been an exciting redo for us for many years. we have seen strong growth coming out of the philippines and thailand and opening up these markets, many of which are across the asia-pacific region, we think that will be a strong growth play for us for many years to come. >> what is the revenue you are targeting here? >> when it comes to the plan the markets, we make sure we do our homework. pricing each market is different depending on things like purchasing power and macro
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economic factors. the launch price for premium across markets like pakistan is like two dollars or three dollars, while singapore is closer to eight dollars. australia, close to 10 u.s. dollars. so it will be slightly lower across most of these markets. these are markets with young and savvy populations. but as these markets grow and purchasing power increases, we will see more across the markets as well. >> what about china? does your china strategy go further than that? >> we have no plans at this moment to launch directly in china. we are excited about our partnership and investment into tencent. they are the market leader in china and we think they will have successful growth in that market. >> are you concerned with the moves in china or moving forward
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-- google and facebook have faced so many hurdles. >> we have no further comments on that topic. >> we know spotify has been investing largely here. there plans to monetize as well. but city put out a note saying the big investment you put into podcasts, we look at the likes of joe rogan, it may not pay off in time. how do you monetize for the podcasters themselves and also the user growth? >> we are very excited about our venture into podcasts. we see a strong demand for consumers to gobble up all the podcasts content we are providing and what it comes to some of the biggest podcast moves we have done today, we just launched a new podcast the
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other day with barack obama and bruce springsteen -- we are seeing user growth stronger than we have projected and we are starting to see promising signs around monetization. one thing we see around tencent is clearly lots of new types of monetization. we are going to beta test this year what we call paid podcast for the creator can set a price for their podcast and put that out to market. that is one way we are innovating around the format. >> do you have any concerns people using that platform are switching away from some of your platforms to listen to these? >> i have tried a couple of times myself and i think we are in a market where attention from consumers comes from many different forms and places. as long as we stay focused on
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building and amazing experience, we are really excited about what we see from that. >> let about competition from the likes of apple when they have the hardware on their platform? is hardware something spotify would look at down the track? >> we think the strength of our service and experiences that we are available across all platforms and not really tied to one ecosystem. for consumers these days, openness and being able to consume content across a wide array of platforms is something they appreciate and put a value to. being a platform in itself, on top of apple, windows, android and so on is something that is valuable and something we will continue to invest in. we are looking at lots of interesting use cases, how can we be well integrated into cars
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and so on? but we have no plans specifically. haidi: we do have some more stocks to watch. sophie: we are watching reaction to the hang seng quarterly review that will include alibaba health added to the hong kong benchmark. morgan stanley downgraded the stock to equal weight -- morgan stanley lowering the price target by 16%. keeping an eye on shanghai airport which has upgraded from hold to sell -- the negative has largely been priced in and they do not expect further selloff pressure after the stoxx 22% -- after the stoxx 22% --
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